Well, Steve Jackson has fixed the glitch. You can now order and play this fun diversion that's also highly pertinent to today's topic!
== News about human origins and evolution ==
Scientists are advancing with synthetic evolution: At 493 genes, the minimal genome of M. mycoides JCVI-syn3B is the smallest known free-living organism, artificially culled-down to the absolutely minimum number that’s viable by folks at the Craig Venter Institute. In comparison, many animal and plant genomes contain more than 20,000 genes. So far, the simplest organism would have no functional redundancies or useless spacers. Note that it requires the researchers to supply food and ideal conditions. Which leads to their next step… altering conditions to see if evolution takes place.
Spoiler alert. It does.
At the opposite end of the scale... Neanderthal genes! Was there a penalty for promiscuity around 50,000 BCE? People with roots outside Africa tend to have about 2% Neanderthal (or else Denisovan) DNA in their genome. So statistically, by random chance, you would expect Neanderthal DNA to collectively account for around 2% of the genetic risk of disease. Not in all cases, it seems: "But here we find that 8.4% is explained by Neanderthal gene flow," much more than is expected by chance alone.”
It is so tiresome when sci journalists flub their reporting. Take these reports that the human ancestral line almost died out due to low populations about 800,000 years ago. Yes “bottlenecks” are very interesting! A recently discovered ‘y-chromosome bottleneck’ around the time of early farming towns, has huge implications! As for these news stories: yes, there was likely a time when Homo Heidelbergensis & Antecessor (ancestor of Homo Saps and Neanderthals) were a small, isolated population, and surviving that isolation helped them to thereupon differentiate and speed our evolution.
But, this was not about ‘the human line almost dying out’! These articles ignore the fact that very close cousins to Heidelbergensis - Homo Erectus - were everywhere in the Old World with no bottleneck. An isolation bottleneck was likely HOW we surged ahead of Erectus – evolution flourishes on such cycles. But Erectus was still around and would likely have spun off another isolated population. And maybe super-brain sapiens might NOT have happened! See my speculations in Existence. Still, flawed reporting.
Human origins were definitely in Africa, stretching back to Australopithecus – “Lucy’ and her upright-walking kin. But further back to the ancestors of ALL apes? It appears that earlier hominids not only evolved in western and central Europe but spent over 5 million years evolving there and spreading to the eastern Mediterranean before eventually dispersing into Africa. Recent findings establish Anadoluvius turkae as a branch of the part of the evolutionary tree that gave rise to chimpanzees, bonobos, gorillas and humans.
But sure, long after that, human genetic diversity in non-African populations appeared to have been shaped primarily by an out-of-Africa dispersal 50 or so thousand yr ago (kya). (As I describe in Existence.) With a major shift in reprogramming-by-culture. But somewhere around 7000ya there was another huge effect. Arrival of agriculture, towns and kings led to a Y-Chromosome bottleneck when only a small fraction of males got to breed. Then, rather quickly, actual cities got larger, law happened, and the great culling of males appears to have stopped... though not feudalism, dominating 99% of our ancestors.
We can do - and have done - better than that failed social norm.
See my neoteny article: Neoteny and Two-Way Sexual Selection in Human Evolution.
== Did we evolve all the things that make us what we are? ==
I want to just drop in here a few thoughts about Richard Dawkins (famed author of The Selfish Gene , The Blind Watchmaker, and The God Delusion). Down in the comments community here at "Contrary Brin" (the very best such community online!), some opined a while back about Dawkins's belief that humans have no behaviors that did not arise from evolution. And I also must demur. What Dawkins etc. (and nearly all others) ignore is the emergent effects that occur when one layer of activity creates a new, ‘higher” layer.
Cells are vast communities of sub-cellular entities that do their various tasks & business in a manner that is generally at least as much competitive as cooperative, making and ‘selling’ chemicals and structures to each other, much like an economy. Yet the cell seems from the outside to be a consistent, self-cooperative entity.
In Earth I describe how this same effect happens at the next layer between cells in a macro organism, especially during fetal development, when proto-neurons compete with each other savagely, over growth factors, resulting in whole ecosystem structures – jungles and forests and deserts, across the developing infant brain: structures that combine into vastly better mental processes, wherein many next-layer personality drives and components continue to compete across life… yet, the thing that emerges - an individually identifiable human being - portrays with some verisimilitude a unitary organism, actively and effectively pursuing goals…
…goals that change as the organism satisfies ever-higher layers of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. All the way to abstractions that the cellular and mammal and ape and caveman brains that dwell inside our cortex could never begin to perceive, let alone understand.
And sure, often these higher ‘value’ goals (e.g. religion) can often be just surface justifications for more brutal, lower drives like vengeance, jealously, fear and avarice. And yet… 50,000 years ago (I believe, and argue in Existence), there came a new layering as humans became able to re-program their thinking modes completely via culture, leading to many subsequent major, 'renaissance' shifts in our tools, societies and things we can perceive/contemplate.
The crux: Dawkins is completely off-base if he thinks he can ascribe the emergent outcomes from those new and vividly unpredictable layers entirely to earlier evolved selection.
== Where our evolved natures collide with policy? And with AI? ==
Our evolved natures interact fretfully with new technologies. Take recent cries that new generative AI systems may decipher and interpret our personal DNA! Yes, that could be worrisome! A tool for criminals and oppressors and bigots. As illustrated in the excellent film Gattaca – that DNA is already everywhere. You shed it in flakes of skin wherever you go.
But that's the point! As shown in that flick, collection and decipherment of our DNA will be trivial and banning all that is a mug's game. What matters - a point I’ve been pushing since the 1990s, in The Transparent Society and elsewhere - is that hiding will neither preserve privacy nor prevent your data being used against you.
But what matters is not blinding others; it is preventing others from using your information to harm you. There is a possible solution, then. Not by hiding, but by aggressively ripping the veils away from malefactors who might do that sort of thing!
194 comments:
Dr. Brin
Speaking of cooperation and competitive, here's a bit of an essay about Adam Smith and Public Choice Theory:
"It is not clear just what Adam Smith’s religious commitments were, but he was likely at least heavily influenced by the deist view of “God as watchmaker,” in which a system is set up optimally and then naturally performs well. An economic system that is set up optimally will likewise perform well, indefinitely. And Smith seemed to have thought that the legal system could be set up as an optimizing system too. But the temptation for elected officials to defect from the socially optimal set of rules, in ways that benefit them, the officials, is powerful.
And it’s not just selfishness, I should note. If a legislator actually runs on the socially optimal platform of low tax/education/housing, he will lose the election to a legislator who is willing to create opportunities for photo opportunities with BSOs. That’s “Bright Shiny Objects.” The way to get reelected is to promote the building of BSOs that would not exist if the legislator had not taken a specific action. As I have written about in this space several times, the use of discretionary incentives is the most common form of credit-claiming action for state officials. So even if a legislator doesn’t want to sell out for BSOs, he is obliged to do so or else become an “ex-legislator.” Selection by election ensures that BSOs win. [ https://www.aier.org/article/i-fought-the-google-and-the-google-won/ ]"
Any ideas on how to solve this problem?
Aha! Last time I tried to get Tribes, I discovered that SJG didn't post to Australia. I will investigate further.
A number of other games also have the embedded team goal. Going full circle from the distant past to the distant future, the computer games in the 'Horizon' series depict life in tribes hunting and gathering amidst... cybernetic dinosaurs!?? Determining how we came to that pass is the main objective of the game, which I won't spoil. However, there are some board game spin-offs that recreate a hunt. Your characters are vying for trophies, but won't get anything unless the entire team survive the encounter.
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Dawkins contends that the primary driver of evolutionary competitiveness occurs between genes. He is not blind to the higher order organisational effects such as cooperation and altruism, and is well aware of the need to demonstrate how they can arise from his 'first principles'. The situation is similar to a first year Physics exercise demonstrating that Newton's fundamental principles of mass and gravity give rise to Kepler's keenly observed laws of planetary motion.
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@McS, personally, I would be *very* wary of applying standard economic theory to real-life situations: there is a tendency for the cart to end up pulling the horse* (one could argue that the woes of the last couple of centuries arise from doing just that. Sorry, Messrs Marx and von Hayek. The problem wasn't necessarily you but your adherents).
* A problem which Howarth's 'Doughnut Economics' lays out in detail for standard concepts like the 'GDP' and 'economic man'. The latter, in particular, has morphed over two centuries from 'what an economist may assume a man to be' to 'the man an economist should aspire to being'. Enter Gordon Gekko.
It's an interesting hypothesis that culture determines (and/or is upstream from) biological expression, as (one) it's oddly reminiscent of Greg Bear's "Queen of Angels" hypothesis that the human intellect equals computer software and (two) both theories run contrary to the generally accepted 'ontology recapitulates phylogeny' theory.
A more likely theory, and one supported by a plethora of sociological studies, is that biological inheritance determines culture, not vice versa, as this would explain why so many identity groups display diverse & measurable differences in aggressive qualities, intellectual capacity, computational ability, language skills, visuospatial perceptions & even architectural preferences.
Even so, the attraction of the 'Culture Determines Biology' theory is obvious, especially to those individuals who credit the whole Blank Slate Equalism myth that has become our modern western cultural catechism.
What do I mean by Blank Slate Equalism?
This is the theory every human, be they man, woman, dotard, child, genius, retard or other, possesses equivalent 'Equality of Outcome' potential if one assumes the existence of an absolute 'Equality of Opportunity' predicated upon the creation of an absolutely 'fair-level-open' competitive playing field, even when this belief also represents an effective denial of our similarly sacrosanct diversity ideal.
These two belief systems, Blank Slate Equalism & Diversity, are diametric opposites and completely incompatible, as Blank Slate Equalism insists that all human beings are potentially equal & interchangeable and Diversity insists that biological human differences are innate, irreconcilable & desirable.
Equalism or Diversity, not both: Pick one lest you go insane.
Best
_____
I'm guessing that this TRIBES role playing game is based on Brin's short story "NatuLife" from his Otherness collection, wherein the protagonists (male & female) engage in a paleolithic computer simulation in order to exercise, escape their sterile urban cubicle, have simulated non-procreative sex & unite their two tribes by obtaining special 'mods' to advance to a higher level. Amirite?
The Neanderthals and Denosivans were varieties of human, not differentiated enough to prevent reproduction. I've read that DNA of Africans suggests they also have components from Human varieties no longer seen.
Andrey Khudoleev, a member of Putin’s Interethnic Relations Council, has expressed concern about young people’s apparent interest in studying the “Elvish language,” which he described as a “serious threat” ...
Khudoleev says more than 12,000 Russians now self-identify as Elves and study the Elvish languages constructed by English writer J. R. R. Tolkien.
https://lnkd.in/eewrK6-c
Heck, we have more Wiccans & Druids in just Southern California, and it hasn't done us any... hey, why are you shaking your head?
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MCS asks "Any ideas on how to solve this problem?"
Well, I'd start with less contempt for the republic and citizenry that has made greater strides toward justice, freedom and vast - spectacular - accomplishments than ALL other nations and societies... combined. Considering all that plus multi-layers of synergy among citizens and institutions afroth with corrective mutual criticism MIGHT be merited. Especially since today's 'crises' are mostly fomented by foreign enemies and an inherent minority of crazies.
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Gawd, even when he's trying hard to act like a normal person putting forward an argument, instead of a reflexive 'oppositer', locum pushed nonsense: "A more likely theory, and one supported by a plethora of sociological studies, is that biological inheritance determines culture, not vice versa..."
While I do not deny genetic components - no one could be like locum without some dyspeptic-depressive genes - the overall assertion is disproved by... America, wherein every imaginable ethnicity has sent its sons and daughters to our universities where they have become diversely but generally, by personality... Americans.
The last dichotomy is just another example of 1-d declarations in a 4D+ world.
Dr Brin:
more than 12,000 Russians now self-identify as Elves and study the Elvish languages constructed by English writer J. R. R. Tolkien
In a very early Star Trek novel called Spock Must Die by James Blish, the Enterprise was caught behind enemy lines when the Klingons launched a war with the Federation. They needed a way to send intelligence to Starfleet without it being intercepted by the Klingons. Uhrua came up with the idea of sending the message in Elvish.
Another bit of evidence in favour of culture driving biology comes from... fur seals!?
I think it was of his 'Nature of Things' episodes where David Suzuki noted that, around the corner from a large breeding colony, with its brawling bulls and their harems, was a smaller bay with a group of the (currently) same species quietly living a monogamous existence.
I've had trouble obtaining it: either no workable (for me) payment options or no shipping to Canada (tried various), 1998 paperback unavailable (Amazon). I'll try again using this current info.
I would be very interested if there's an update or video game in the works - I have experience as a game designer/programmer/player, especially in resource management and civ genres, going all the way back to Hammurabi in BASIC. I came within a hair's breadth of becoming an early employee at Electronic Arts 30+ years ago. That was a tragic 'road not taken' for me and for EA (they could have ingested A.I. decades before the competition).
I've read most of Dawkins. Brilliant stuff, though he never got to computational psychohistory. Pity. Strokes are damnable things. BTW it was resource management games that mainly brought me back after my stroke. Not as good as Alfred Differ's Bayesian path, but still far better than antique therapeutic doctrine.
Blank Slate Equalism? Absolute equality of outcome?
Who subscribes to such in 2023?: Communists?
Aside... are any of you intense hobbyists with image AI programs like midjourney? I'd like your help trying a few prompts that just don't seem to work for me. Here's a prompt I tried...
"In whimsical or comedic style: an elegant, unhappy count dracula vampire is tied to the ground by thin ropes, like Gulliver. Very tiny, lilliputian robots dance on him jubilantly while tightening the robes and combing his hair."
If any of you get something truly cool, speak up and we could talk offline. Thanks.
That's "tightening the ROPES," of course.
Well, I'd start with less contempt for the republic and citizenry that has made greater strides toward justice, freedom and vast - spectacular - accomplishments than ALL other nations and societies... combined.
This is of course New Zealand!
Although the Nordic nations could dispute that
If you look at the final of the olympic 100m swimming and the final of the 100m running, you have to think that we non-Africans got swimming genes and lost running genes...
That's a lot of qualifiers. 8)
The one offered 'free' to Deviant Art users isn't as sophisticated, but I tried that and variations. I had to ditch 'Count Dracula' all together before it would show a figure prone. I'm guessing most images of Dracula used for training purposes show him looming over a soon-to-be victim.
An unhappy Count Dracula is tied to the ground in a prone position by thin ropes. Tiny Lilliputian robots dance on the vampire while tightening ropes and combing his hair.
This prompt came the closest with a half prone Dracula, almost no ropes, and robots of various sizes trying to tie him down.
An unhappy Count Dracula is tied by thin ropes to the ground in a prone position. Lilliputian robots dance on the vampire while tightening ropes and combing his hair.
This one had him almost standing and robots trying to wrestle him to the ground.
NONE of them ever showed dancing robots... way too many layers of meaning for their simpler AI.
Alfred email me. Though it might help to prompt "suppine" position since "prone" is face-down!
I've read a fair amount of Dawkin's earlier stuff. I stopped after a while because certain other opinions of his pissed off my wife. I could watch quietly on Twitter without her noticing, but… well… I've come to partially agree with her.
Still… The Selfish Gene argument as I understood it was that a gene for a trait is necessary, but not deterministic. Our multi-layered minds wouldn't be what they are without certain, very selfish genes succeeding at the act of replicating.
Where some argue against him (erroneously I think) is attributing to him a position that knowledge of genes is sufficient to predict later attributes. I think it is pretty obvious 'sufficient' isn't proven and is very likely to be wrong. I also think he doesn't argue for it.
There are two ways causality breaks down between genes and our multi-layered minds.
1. Genes might be necessary, but not deterministic. That leaves the door open to probabilistic predictions meaning we could have come out several different ways with the same set of genes. THAT leaves open the door for memetics.
2. Genes might be necessary but contain insufficient information to make even probabilistic predictions. This is the 'under determined' problem like #1, but worse.
—————
I'd add one more thing that I think very few of Dawkin's readers understand. Heritability isn't inheritance. It's fun to wrap your mind around the difference, but I finally had to when I read Sapolsky. I don't dare pretend I can explain it again without retrieving that book and cribbing from his pages.
Genes alone determine which proteins can be manufactured by a cell. What those proteins DO in the context of their environment is quite another matter.
mcsandberg,
Lots of people were enamored with the optimization concept coupled with 'God as a watchmaker'. It fits neatly with some common desires.
1. Someone understands what is going on.
2. There exists a universal 'best' way forward.
Smith likely did believe #1, but his writing suggests that any belief in #2 was of the kind that said it was beyond human reach. His 'Wealth of Nations' book is all about recognizing that noblemen hinder the wealth of their nations when they try to impose their 'best' way on everyone. That's an argument against any human suggested global optima because he contrasted it with human suggested local optima.
F.A. Hayek took the idea another step by arguing against #2 existing without markets finding local prices strongly suggesting no foundation for #2.
Popper nailed it shut by showing #2 cannot exist absent a time machine and a way to process all information from the past and future to make a decision in the present. [It's in his Open Universe book.]
———
Don't fall for the belief some have that Smith's 'Invisible Hand' implied both #1 and #2. He used that term in only one of the editions of Wealth Of Nations and regretted it. The point he was making when he used that term is that markets had a way of channeling a persons less-than-virtuous behaviors into service to one's community. It was as-if an invisible hand guided them. IF Smith believed #1, then it's easy to see where he made the mental connection, but it's quite clear to the scholars that he avoided writing down his precise ideas on that.
———
When Smith worked as a philosopher of ethics, he stuck to the classic Greek virtues pretty much as Aristotle listed them… which means he skipped the additional three 'graces' that Aquinas added to make a better fit with a Christian view of things. Back then, it wasn't uncommon for academics in Northern Europe to put some distance between themselves and the Roman Church, so I'm not convinced what little Smith wrote tells a full story.
Dr Brin:
Though it might help to prompt "supine" position since "prone" is face-down!
I've always thought that too, but I can't count the number of times I've seen writers, even in published articles or books, use "prone" to mean the face-up position. It's almost like "irregardless"* in that the misuse might be considered an alternate definition now.
* I am gratified that the Windows spellchecker is marking "irregargless" as incorrect, and offers "regardless" as a correction.
Dr Brin:
That's "tightening the ROPES," of course.
Maybe your AI prompts would get better results if they didn't contain so many typos. :)
I've posted this before, but it validates Dawkins' "Blind Watchmaker" argument. Here is an old computational demonstration, with work shown, of "evolving a watch". It employs heuristics such as 'try everything', selection, and gradients. All quite mindless and without design. Vaporizing the delusion of 'creation as intelligent design (ID)' is an epic watershed on both a personal and societal level, and the amazing thing is that it's quite understandable and easy to follow. Anyone who reads Dawkins' book, sees this and other demos, and yet still believes in ID is simply and willfully ignorant.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mcAq9bmCeR0
Alfred Differ:
I've read a fair amount of Dawkin's earlier stuff. I stopped after a while because certain other opinions of his pissed off my wife. I could watch quietly on Twitter without her noticing, ...
In the mid 1990s, when my wife-to-be and I were first getting serious about each other, I had her reading the Cerebus comic book series along with me. About the same time, Dave Sim's particularly problematic opinions were beginning to rear their heads in the books. When his infamous anti-feminism screed appeared, I was sure I was going to have to make a choice between marital bliss and continuing the series for the remainder of the promised 300 issues. I initiated a serious conversation with her, which she dismissed with essentially a wave of the hand--"What, you think I'm going to break up with you for reading a comic book??" She had no idea what my previous romantic life had been like, but in any case I was grateful, and still am almost 30 years later.
but… well… I've come to partially agree with her.
Oh, well that's very different.
"Nevermind."
Alfred Differ:
The point he was making when he used that term is that markets had a way of channeling a persons less-than-virtuous behaviors into service to one's community.
I'm not nearly as well-read on the subject as you are, but my sense of Smith's "invisible hand" was always something along the lines of psychohistory. That an individual's actions had consequences separate from his personal motivations, and that those consequences could in some cases be inevitable.
I never read anything into it of the type that ascribed personal motivation to the invisible hand itself. But then, I wouldn't, would I? :)
Isn't Smith's "invisible hand" at least somewhat like evolution? Not intelligently directed, but leading nonetheless to self-sustaining functions which survive the passage of time?
Quite accidentally, Alfred offers up a scathing denunciation of Progressive Leftism:
Lots of people were enamored with the optimization concept coupled with 'God as a watchmaker'. It fits neatly with some common desires.
1. Someone understands what is going on.
2. There exists a universal 'best' way forward.
Except when there isn't.
He adds that 'Heritability isn't Inheritance' & effectively restates the generally accepted definitions for Genotype & Phenotype, a biological distinction which shows no apparent connection to cultural memetic theory, except in terms of yet another 'someone (claiming to) understand what is going on' & assuming 'there a universal best way forward'.
It is much more likely that gene variation, along with the phenotypic expression of said genes, predispose the human animal to the expression of certain nonfungible cultural behaviors, especially in terms of sociability, cooperation & competition, much in the way that a cat is always predisposed to act like a cat, but never like a bird or an orangutan.
This idea that human beings are somehow born interchangeable & without innate cultural preferences, it's a full-blown delusion, and it can only be remedied by multiple re-readings of BF Skinner's 'Beyond Freedom & Dignity' and a general acceptance of both genetic predisposition & behavioral science.
Best
No one here argues that genes can't predispose people toward depression or gregarity or - sure - paranoia. Attempts to claim that 'liberls' and such deny this are simply blather strawmen, of no pertinence to anyone here.
"It is much more likely that gene variation, along with the phenotypic expression of said genes, predispose the human animal to the expression of certain nonfungible cultural behaviors, especially in terms of sociability, cooperation & competition, much in the way that a cat is always predisposed to act like a cat, but never like a bird or an orangutan."
While that statement in itself is isolated-true, it is here blatantly used to imply that humans aren't still the most vastly reprogrammable entities on the plant (till AI.) Especially when used to support the loathesomely dumb final paragraph.
1. We would not give birth to such utterly dependent and useless infants if adaptable reprogramming weren't the biggest human deal.
2. Again. Whatever their parents' homeland, kids born in America become culturally utterly American.
Dr Brin:
Whatever their parents' homeland, kids born in America become culturally utterly American.
That's what's so chilling about the American right talking as if those kids don't belong here.
Alfred
1. Someone understands what is going on.
2. There exists a universal 'best' way forward.
About (2) - I do not believe it at all - however that does not stop me from believing that there can be BETTER ways forwards for specific occasions
And that we can progress and help the economy and progress by choosing those "better ways"
Larry,
re: Invisible Hand & Psychohistory analogy
That's not a bad way to look at it, but I think the analogy falters on one key point. Psychohistory was supposed to be a mathematically described theory that enabled predictions about large ensembles of humans. The people being predicted had to be unaware of the predictions to avoid invalidating them, but the theory made predictions EX ANTE where precision of outcomes depended on accuracy of inputs. By any standard, such a theory is a strong candidate for being useful to a science.
Smith's "Invisible Hand" is better thought of as an EX POST FACTO explanation. These narratives are much easier to come by than the other kinds of theories. We can cook them up from most any ingredients and even build wild conspiracies that fit observed facts. Neither you nor I are much in the religious camp, so we'd see Smith's words as a kind of allegory that leveraged the beliefs of most everyone else. It's a useful story. Maybe.
There were five editions of The Wealth Of Nations. The Invisible Hand only appeared in one of them and it wasn't the last one. Smith ripped it back out when people failed to sense the nuance he intended. This is what convinces me that he wanted to distance his personal beliefs from the book… which is really just a giant tome explaining what the prudent thing to do is when it comes to wealth of a nation. A person's religious beliefs don't have much to do with constructing and rebutting prudence arguments until one is discussing things like an afterlife.
Dr. Brin
RE AI imagery prompts. This is not my thing, but as a "master of nothing" I felt obligated to mess around with some of the free generators. The rendered art was terrible and the generators I tried couldn't manage to savvy what being tied up with ropes looks like. I thought about what I would do if I was a computer program while making my lunch and decided your prompt is basically re-imagining one of the famous illustrations from Gulliver's travels and doing a find/replace with a Guilliver/Vampire and Lilliputians/Steampunk robot. Anyway, I found a platform called dashboard runway where you can upload images and add prompts and mess with them while changing parameters. I could get it to take the uploaded image and function as an abstract turd generator but ran out of free credits before anything of merit was generated.
To be contrary, my recommendation is go on Facebook or some other platform where you interact with people and ask a real human who can draw (or an actual artist) to spend an hour doing the same prompt the AI can't do and pay them with a signed copy of one of your books and credit.
Duncan,
…believing that there can be BETTER ways…
I completely agree with and endorse that statement. 8)
Where I'm still skeptical is in believing that there are universally better ways forward. It's not just that a bunch of selfish bastards would argue against a broad betterment because it doesn't give them enough, though. I suspect narrower betterments are much more easily attained and worth picking from the fruit tree even if others don't appear to benefit.
If you create something innovative and I stand aside and let you get filthy rich selling it for awhile, the betterment is very local. It works for you and your direct customers. However, that situation won't last long because while you bathe in your filthy lucre, many others will notice and try to copy you. I'll stand aside for them too (up to a point) and watch as your local betterment gets broadened at your expense. If everyone doing that starts building mansions on the hill, even more will get involved and you all will lose control of it. Bwa-ha-ha! The betterment will broaden again.
I suspect this is the ONLY feasible path toward broad betterments. They start with People Like You (meaning you and your team) and the a combination of cooperation and competition spreads the wealth… almost as if led by an invisible hand. 8)
scidata,
Vaporizing the delusion of 'creation as intelligent design (ID)' is an epic watershed on both a personal and societal level…
I jump up and down on my soapbox over this topic. I think it impossible to overstate just how important it is that humanity figured out there is a middle ground between "utter chaos" and "designed by a moral agent". We are narrative minds all the way down, so recognizing that much of the Cosmos is NOT is a HUGE achievement.
There aren't all that many truly distinct, original ideas. We have a few of them (like simple harmonic oscillation) that we use, cast, re-use again, brush the dirt off, and then try them on yet another problem. 'Evolution' is one of those fundamental ideas. What I fascinating about evolution is that we found it in economics before we found it in biology. Its use in biology involved casting it again.
locumranch,
…scathing denunciation of Progressive Leftism:
Let's be fair. It is a denunciation of pretty much everyone except classical liberals. It works extremely well against the magats, social conservatives, and climate watermelons too.
…somehow born interchangeable & without innate cultural preferences…
We aren't, but we are coming from a time when people erred so far in the other direction they used calipers to measure skull sizes and thought that deterministically predicted personality disorders. Come now. We can cope with the fools who think we are all completely interchangeable.
… but I suspect you are in error about innate cultural preferences. Humans aren't all THAT different.
...couldn't manage to savvy what being tied up with ropes looks like...
Ha ha!
Be careful folks. There are budding AI's that can probably do that. They are trained on datasets that contain images of bondage porn, so don't be too shocked if that's what you get. 8)
I still remember with a bit of embarrassment the first time I Google'd for vacuum bagging techniques relating to fiberglass and carbon composite manufacturing. My search prompt wasn't good enough to exclude a certain kink some people have involving vacuum cleaners, so my screen exploded.
To get someone properly tied up, you might have to risk clicking the 'mature subjects allowed' flag in your preferences. Don't blame me if your significant other gets annoyed, though.
Alfred Differ:
Smith's "Invisible Hand" is better thought of as an EX POST FACTO explanation
Regardless of how it was used in Asimov's fiction, I tend to also think of real-life psychohistory in ex post facto terms. For example, I often ask, not entirely rhetorically, if the fact that voting patterns tend to approach 50% Democrat and 50% Republican has a psychohistorical explanation.
The point I was making was that the invisible hand is not sentient. I expect religious people want to see it as "God's will" or something of that sort, but I don't believe that was what Adam Smith was talking about. The "God's will" view implies that whatever our selfish motives cause us to do will work out to a morally correct outcome--something I think is self-evidently false. The "analogous to evolution" view implies only that whatever our selfish motives cause us to do leads to some sort of (possibly dynamic) equilibrium state. That may not be provably true either, but I think it's closer to what Smith was describing.
Slim Moldie:
The rendered art was terrible and the generators I tried couldn't manage to savvy what being tied up with ropes looks like
Some of the public versions may have been designed not to create S&M porn (among other things), and so may explicitly avoid images of people tied up.
Way back in the 90s, when web sites were a fairly new thing, one particular library I often used for internet access had their kid-and-prude filter turned up to 11. It wouldn't even let me send a post with the word "analysis" in it because that contained the string "anal".
Alfred Differ:
They are trained on datasets that contain images of bondage porn, so don't be too shocked if that's what you get. 8)
Great minds think alike.
Slim M: Thanks for trying and for your report. My notion was to ai-generate half a dozen versions and then ask a human artist (paid) to discuss good bad aspects of each version so we converged on THEIR working prompt. An ethically acceptable approach that’d do us both the service of improving communications re what the customer (me) wants.
But you are right. These systems can’t extrapolate based upon the prompt’s MEANING. Not yet. These gollems (GLLMs) are great at feigning sapient conversation – without anything like the real thing, under the hood.
Alfred: “ I'll stand aside for them too (up to a point) and watch as your local betterment gets broadened at your expense. If everyone doing that starts building mansions on the hill, even more will get involved and you all will lose control of it. Bwa-ha-ha!”
Except that theory is disproved every time a cartel chea6ts to control a competitive market. Adam Smith goes on about that citing merchant cabals… but all the time insinuating he also means the worsth cartel… though saying their names could cost him his life – kings and their spoiled inheritance-brat lords. The very cartel that the US Founders DID risk their lives to rebel-against!
Today, a cartel of would-be feudalists control and incite the exact same lumpenproletariat dopes who marched and died for Cornwallis as king loving tories and then as slave-o-crat-loving confeds and then…. Well now it’s casino mafiosi, hedge lords, petro moguls, inheritance brats and “ex” commie Kremlin would-be czars.
But the great archetype of Smith’s complaint about cartels is an incestuous CEO-caste of golf buddies who appoint each other to boards, to raise each other’s golden tickets, on the presumption they are all as irreplaceable as basketball stars… while evading any use of the tight metrics that prove a basketball star’s value.
David,
Except that theory is disproved every time a cartel cheats to control a competitive market.
That's why I have to say 'up to a point'. Once a team/cartel tries to act to stop the repetitive process, that point is reached.
———
A wondrous goose wanders into town and lays golden eggs for any who can charm her. One such charmer decides after he has his gold to kill the goose for he correctly predicts more eggs will cheapen his.
Killing the goose has to be stopped.
I'll support the use of force to prevent it… up to a point.
[If the charmer wants to try charming her again, I'll probably stand aside.]
Kids born in America become culturally utterly American.
This is the Magical Dirt Hypothesis, the belief that infants become 'culturally American & European' the moment their little tootsies touch enlightened soil. It is also a bald-faced lie, as behavioral acculturation is a long drawn out socialization process by which people may CHOOSE TO adopt the values, customs, norms, attitudes & behaviors of a host culture, assuming they possess the foundational genetic abilities necessary for cultural assimilation.
Humans (are) vastly reprogrammable entities
Partially true in terms of acculturation, but absolutely false in the sense that human beings cannot be 'reprogrammed' to become something they are not. Men do not become women; the short do not become tall; the stupid do not become smart; the illogical do not become reasonable; and, the effectiveness of any & all operant conditioning remains limited by both the presence & absence of certain innate and inherited behavioral characteristics.
BF Skinner addressed all these issues in 'Beyond Freedom & Dignity', made giant steps towards a technology for human behaviour, and failed in this one regard:
His studies on pre-1960 America assumed a level of cultural & genetic homogeneity that applied only to those few Western Educated Industrialized Rich & Democratic (WEIRD) cultures which represented less than 12% of humanity in general, but were completely unrepresentative of the human species in a global sense.
In the end, he was foiled by human genetic diversity, as we all are or we all soon will be, if & when we continue to assume that all human genetic subtypes are completely equal, identical and interchangeable in all respects, especially in terms of intelligence, technophilia, perceptive ability & temperament.
Been to downtown Minneapolis Minnesota recently?
Just 30 years after importing about 40,000 Somali refugees, the once fussy clean capital of Scandohoovian politeness is now a crime-ridden bombed-out third world shit hole that most resembles Mogadishu, proving only that you recapitulate the 3rd world if you import 3rd worlders.
Best
______
Addendum:
Now that I'm back in California, I've been made aware that today is an important public holiday known as "National Homeless Person Day", the day that each & every one of us needs to thank a homeless person for the selfless social services they provide. So, to the homeless & unhoused everywhere, I SALUTE YOU.
Psychohistory and economics are nearly congruent. That's why economics has such a poor record, to date. It's easy to see why psychohistory is so difficult as to be practically impossible, but somehow people can't see that, for the same reasons, economics is also very hard because of the fundamental nature of the problem.
Alfred Differ said...
Duncan,
""…believing that there can be BETTER ways…"
I completely agree with and endorse that statement. 8)
Where I'm still skeptical is in believing that there are universally better ways forward."
A great example of how complex communication can be. I would guess that you, Alfred, and Duncan mean almost precisely the same thing by that phrase, but that your attitudes about it are somewhat different, leading you each to emphasize different aspects of it.
I certainly agree with both of you. I'd liken it to a landscape moving through time, 4D. Universal may as well be ruled out, I think, because when it comes down to it there is very little that is actually universal. And if human behavior is involved you can pretty much rule it out entirely. If you start thinking "universal" it's a good sign you are under bias of a prior commitment.
But in any snapshot of the landscape there are solutions that lead to better outcomes than other solutions. The hard parts are an accurate enough understanding of that snapshot of the current landscape and a wide enough agreement on what "better" is in the particular context.
Locum:
It isn't magical dirt, it's monkey-see-monkey-do. You will be assimilated, resistance is futile.
What I fascinating about evolution is that we found it in economics before we found it in biology. Its use in biology involved casting it again.
Alfred, the truly interesting part is that evolution is now coming back into economics. There is a relatively new branch of economics using Sociobiological concepts to rethink many of the basic human behavior concepts the sit behind macroeconomics. I think this merger is about the closest thing going to psychohistory.
Add in some of the sports performance analytics that have taken over the sports world, and you have the roots of psychohistory.
Men do not become women; the short do not become tall; the stupid do not become smart; the illogical do not become reasonable; and, the effectiveness of any & all operant conditioning remains limited by both the presence & absence of certain innate and inherited behavioral characteristics.
Locum, I largely agree with this statement. BUT, I also think many underestimate the variance created by genetics.
The political football that is transgender rights probably sits behind your "men do not become women" riff. Weirdly enough, I will agree that our sexual identity is pretty much determined at birth.
However, I think there is more variation than just what genitals you're born with or your sex chromosomes/ hormone levels. Basically, there are fetal development issues that can affect brain structures and neutral wiring.
Complicating this issue is that I think human sexuality is an imprinted behavior to a large degree. How exactly it manifests can be due to early imprinted behaviors which determine what social "triggers" cause a physiological sexual response. Consequently, you get these sort of mixed socialized behaviors that interact with genetically determined responses. So, how people behave "in the field" can vary quite a bit.
The bottom line is I believe that there are, in fact, people who do benefit from transgender therapy in that their body and brain development don't quite match. I see it as a form of inter-sexuality that affects the brain instead of the genitals. In such cases, transitioning to the "other" social identity might be a more congruent fit for their brain.
However, I do think there are more people than many transgender advocates wish to admit who aren't properly diagnosed. Basically, bc transgender advocacy has become political, people get pushed into that box when it doesn't really suit them.
Aggravating the problem is that now that insurers cover transgender therapy, it creates a bias to make such a diagnosis bc it generates a hell of a lot of money for a certain set of health care providers. While I doubt most are intentionally evil, subconscious bias created by economic gain is insidious.
Researchers are working on it, but it's a confusing area---which I see as a product of the mixed socialized and genetically determined behaviors that make up human sexual expression.
Another bit of evidence in favour of culture driving biology comes from... fur seals!?
I think it was of his 'Nature of Things' episodes where David Suzuki noted that, around the corner from a large breeding colony, with its brawling bulls and their harems, was a smaller bay with a group of the (currently) same species quietly living a monogamous existence.
The biggest argument against culture driving natural selection is the problem that culture is rarely stable long enough to generate significant evolution.
The monogamous seals are interesting. Biology would suggest the two groups would be in competition for the limited beachfront property needed for successful mating.
If monogamy creates a survival advantage it will win out. If it's a null behavior in terms of getting your genes into the next generation, then it will persist as a learned behavior variant. If it yields a fitness advantage, then the more beneficial behavior should win out over time.
However, what would happen if seals had mass media that could rapidly spread cultural values? Could a learned behavior achieve such sustained cultural power that it shifts genes? For one, the cultural power would have to be very strong, such that it would almost exclude you from mating.
In paragraph 1, do you mean behavioral acculturation of foreign-born parents & siblings of the native born?
There are a lot of current biologists who claim more power for group selection and emphasize the cooperative nature of species and even ecosystems.
These types tend to argue "social responsibility" and "social justice" based political /economic systems are more natural than capitalism/democratic systems.
I tend to think that selfish gene theory tends to prevail unless humans come to believe in a that the entire group is facing a dire threat to it's existence. In such a situation, human beings, will shift to more altruistic behaviors. Could facing group threats with a certain frequency be the thing that maintains altruism in the human genome?
I'm rea
Actually, I think altruism is fairly strong in humans because raising human children requires it. Their long development time means human mothers must invest A LOT of time and energy raising them. Human mothers need HELP for the considerable time they are vulnerable either pregnant or raising a small. child. This creates a need for altruistic behaviors to raise kids into adults.
I'm really curious to what extent animals will shift to more altruistic behaviors when facing group-level threats.
Paul Krugman wanted to be a psychohistorian, but there were no academic paths available, so he went into economics. Sort of like wanting to be an electrician, but being forced into plumbing by circumstance and constraints. Many people feel they were born in the wrong century. Sad for them, but happy news for sci-fi writers :)
We want to avoid politics in this thread, but I have to ask: why is it that Trump—as Chief Executive & C. and C.—had four years to declare a national emergency at the border, but did not do so?
His advisors told him not to:
too risky.
—
When there’s a call for volunteer border guards, few if anyone, shows up. Why?:
too dangerous.
Don't mistake the selfish gene point of view as meaning that humans, or any animals, must inevitably be selfish. The primary point of the selfish gene view is that genes are the unit that natural selection acts on, not organisms and not groups of organisms. It is not primarily a view intended specifically for accounting for animal behavior, except in the sense that any view of how natural selection occurs could have an impact on understanding animal behavior.
And so far the science bears out the gene-centric view, though there are and always have been legitimate scientists that think selection also occurs at other, higher, levels. But gene-centric models (the selfish gene view) have had overwhelming success at modeling observed data while other types of models have not. Some studies have indeed constructed other types of models, for example group selection models, and they have worked for a specific observation. However, last I kept up with this sort of thing, no such models were ever generally applicable and in every case a simpler gene-centric model also worked.
Group selection, not to be confused with kin selection which is quite different, really looks to not be accurate. Though perhaps it will be shown to occur someday in the future, to date it is not nearly as well supported as the gene-centric view despite much research.
Personally I wouldn't be surprised at all if it were eventually shown that selection does occur at levels other than genes, because the real world is messy in just that sort of way. One thing's for sure though, it is extremely unlikely that gene level selection is going anywhere. It is very well supported by the evidence. At best it will be found to not be the only level that selection occurs at.
AB it goes much farther. The GOP owned every lever of power 2017-19. Coulda done anything. Paid for a double wall project 20 years in advance and given every (white) teen an AR15, but beyond yet another budget raping Supply Side tax cut for the ubr rich and crippling the IRS, they were the LAZIEST Congress in US history... until this current gopper House, which has done almost literally nothing at all. Ezcept pose and preen and shout.
Dr Brin:
but beyond yet another budget raping Supply Side tax cut for the ubr rich
And they only did that at the last minute before the 2018 election because their donors threatened to turn off the money spigot if they weren't seeing return on investment.
Heh.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/17/opinion/giuliani-trial-maga-trump.html
I’m reminded of Sigourney Weaver’s famous line in “Ghostbusters”: “There is no Dana, only Zuul.” There is no Giuliani now, only Donald Trump.
Now for the question I asked Loc re behavioral acculturation Foreign-born parents can have both foreign and native-born offspring. Do you know which he is referring to?
He won’t deign to reply.
In a way, it's too cute, but I've always liked the narrative that we and our tools co-evolved. Very appealing to an old FORTHer.
yipe! This is sure gonna help calm things isn't it?
https://youtu.be/i48f4AvS-Pk?
Okay here are three revised art prompts. Do any of you know what-from?
"In whimsical or comedic style: tied supine to the ground by thin ropes, like Gulliver, is an elegant, unhappy count dracula vampire, while very tiny, lilliputian robots dance on him jubilantly."
"In a whimsical or comedic style: From atop a tomb, a Star Trek officer watches enthralled as shambling zombies on a hilltop serenade a strange moon."
"In a whimsical or comedic style: a beautiful vampiress, wearing a provocatively torn Star Trek uniform plus cape, approaches, eyes gleaming, fangs glistening."
Well... the Star Trek one produced something moderately close.
Huh! Thanks Alfred. Cool & fun... if not quite the scene.
This really does make pretty clear that we are talking a strange iterative process that is not globally aware. And yet something IS groping toward....
Alan,
Foreign-born parents can have both foreign and native-born offspring.
He wants to talk about the 'Magical Dirt hypothesis', so he's ignoring an important possible interpretation to David's second point.
2. Again. Whatever their parents' homeland, kids born in America BECOME culturally utterly American.
I added the shout portion because an emphasis there shows that your question wouldn't arise. It really doesn't matter if an infant is born on this magical dirt or not. If they get here early enough, they BECOME culturally utterly American.
Well… Sorta. There are exceptions that we see in the borderland between Mexico and the US. Take much of the land that the US took from Mexico in the 19th century and you'll find large populations speaking Spanish. They are somewhat immersed in a mish-mash culture that doesn't apply much pressure on them to assimilate. I live in a part of California where it works that way. There are economic disadvantages in both avoiding all assimilation pressure AND giving in to it. For example, if I want to work in certain industry sectors it would be to my advantage to be bilingual.
However, Locumranch wants to believe we are talking about magic dirt. We aren't, but until he paraphrases what he hears and asks for clarification, he's stuck believing his ability to interpret others is utterly perfect. It isn't.
Locumranch,
…people may CHOOSE TO adopt the values, customs, norms, attitudes & behaviors…
In my experience it doesn't work that way for the first generation kids. They become trapped between the expectations of their immigrant parents on one side and the community on the other. It only looks like a choice from the outside. It's more like an optimization to leads to the least pain because it happens mostly when they are far too young to think rationally about it like adults might.
The second generation kids, though, tends to be culturally, utterly American… much to the dismay of their grandparents.
———
…he was foiled by human genetic diversity…
I'm not convinced it was genetic diversity at all. Cultural differences matter as we've discovered when non-WEIRD people play the same games behavioral economists offer to find out how we value intangibles.
On the genetic level, there really aren't all that many differences between us. We are all relatively close cousins with the exception of certain populations that never left Africa. The fact that I can digest lactose as an adult (mostly) leads to me tolerating cheese and yoghurt which leads to some cultural differences between me and those who don't have the extra copy of that gene. Big whoop! They are still my cousins at some level.
Dr. Brin, those evoke the current political situation. Giant vampire in thin ropes for our tenuous democracy (possibly reliant on A.I.). Zombified electorate serenading an orange? moon. Lady Liberty molting from brave Federation to romantic fascism.
Regarding the reports that Minneapolis Minnesota has been destroyed by Somali: I must report as a resident that this is "greatly exaggerated". I have heard a certain news channel likes to report that our fair city has been abandoned but this is completely false. Fear monger much?
And Uncle Hugo Science Fiction store is back open again too!
Peter:
Regarding the reports that Minneapolis Minnesota has been destroyed by Somali...
I hear that Portland is a smoking hole in the ground.
I like how Fox-watching low information types think that Portland is a smoking hole in the ground. Keeps them out of my hometown. Makes driving safer with all the idiots off the road.
Both Paradoctor & Alfred both insist that immigrants "BECOME culturally utterly American", at least by the second generation, because 'resistance is futile' as if said immigrants are forcibly injected with Borg nanites.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-most-young-americans-back-ending-israel-many-find-jewish-genocide-calls-okay/
This is an absurd assumption, as recently reported by 'The Times of Israel', as "Most young Americans think Israel should be ‘ended' and given to Hamas", according to the most recent the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, begging the following questions:
Who, exactly, appears to be assimilating whom? (and)
How is increasing western diversity beneficial to either the jewish minority or the vanishing white majority when it clearly is not?
Alfred's follow up argument (about how ethnic diversity actually represents an unimportant & negligible genotypic difference between assorted human variants) is both numerically fallacious & disingenuous, as (1) this assertion actually destroys the Left's whole 'Diversity is Strength' argument if said genetic human diversity is so 'negligible & unimportant' and (2) there exists a similarly negligible & unimportant 3% genetic difference between human & orangutan genetics despite large phenotypic differences.
And, finally, an interesting international news tidbit as both DW & France24 propagandists are 'bigly' talking up 2024 as 'The Year of the Deepfake', also known as 'the year that people everywhere can no longer believe their own eyes about world events', as Dr. Brin has long predicted, possibly in preparation for a 'yuge' online internet information dump that will reveal that the western political establishments has lied to damn near all of us about pretty much everything from COVID to WMDs to their complicity in the drug trade to their reasons for open borders to election fraud prevalence to our inevitable victory in the Ukraine.
Most certainly, these are interesting times in which we live.
Best
_____
Peter stops by from Minnesota to tell us that Minneapolis crime rates are "greatly exaggerated", except that he is gravely mistaken, as the overall risk of becoming a violent crime victim is 4.25 times higher in Minneapolis than it is in Minnesota in general, according to
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/mn/minneapolis/crime
a site which also gives Minneapolis '1 out of 100' for relative neighborhood safety when compared to US crime rates in general.
Locumranch,
Borg nanites? Pfft. I'm sure you have a stronger imagination than that.
It's more like learning a language through immersion. Get started early enough and the kid will pick up a LOT more than the basics of speech. They'll learn the culture and wind up as part of it.
Priests have known this for a LONG time. Give them a child and they'll produce a believer.
—————
…is both numerically fallacious & disingenuous…
Nope. Most of us have roughly the same genes for coding proteins. Most of us have the same genes for coding the controllers for whether the protein coding genes operate and at what scale. Most of us have the same genes for controllers for the controllers too.
There are LOTS of small genetic differences between us in the functional areas, but they aren't huge changes. Some of us are relatively immune to a certain kind of disease but suffer higher risk of sickle-cell anemia. Some of us are missing an extra copy of one gene and wind up partially color blind. Some of us have an extra copy of another and are able to digest lactose as adults. There are lots of small differences like this, but they are TINY compared to what is in common.
Where the differences are largest is in the random number generator we use for the structure between the functional parts to make it difficult for viruses to kill us all. If someone had a magic wand to make us all the same BETWEEN the functional stuff and used it, we likely wouldn't change in appearance or capability… but we'd all be dead before the next election after being turned into paper-clip factories for our viral masters.
… (1) this assertion actually destroys the Left's whole 'Diversity is Strength' argument if said genetic human diversity is so 'negligible & unimportant' and
I don't care.
I also think you misunderstand what they mean.
Diversity for them is broader than genetics.
(2) there exists a similarly negligible & unimportant 3% genetic difference between human & orangutan genetics despite large phenotypic differences.
We DO have a lot in common with them, but we have a LOT more in common with each other. Don't ask me to draw a line, though. I don't know where it is and would challenge anyone who thought they did.
—————
Regarding material relating to events in Israel and Gaza: non sequitur.
for situational awareness, a motion to secede has reached the required signatures to appear as a voter initiative on the ballot in Texas.
https://www.caller.com/story/news/local/texas/state-bureau/2023/12/18/can-texas-secede-nationalist-group-says-yes-supreme-court-said-no/71960641007/#:~:text=AUSTIN%20%E2%80%94%20An%20organization%20called%20the,secede%20from%20the%20United%20States.
The primary point of the selfish gene view is that genes are the unit that natural selection acts on, not organisms and not groups of organisms.
Darrell, my ethology and neuro-ethology professor studied at Oxford in the 70s, so was well-aware of Dawkins.
I get that selfish gene theory doesn't explain conscious choices made by organisms. Essentially, calling genes "selfish" is an anthropomorphism intended to make a certain point.
The genes aren't making "choices" in any real sense and can't really be "selfish." One of Dawkins colleagues actually suggested the book title should have been "The Immortal Gene" instead of "The Selfish Gene."
However, genes MUST explain animal behavior to a certain point. In that, one of the core assumptions of animal behavior is that 1.Genes at least influence behavior therefore: 2. Behaviors must be subject to natural selection.
BTW, point 1 is easy to prove in the lab. The entire field of ethology is built on explaining how animal behavior evolves.
Second, "the gene" isn't really the unit selection operates upon. Take for example an animal that has developed some form of color vision vs. back and white vision.
Suppose seeing in color helps that animal identify a key fruit it needs for a nutrient important to its biochemistry. Thus, that animal will gain a fitness advantage over animals that see only in black and white bc it's more effective in gathering that fruit.
The animal with black and white vision might get culled due to this vitamin or mineral deficiency AND THAT CULLING OPERATES ON THE ENTIRE GENE SET THE ANIMAL POSSESSES. Looking at an individual gene frequency within a gene pool sort is something of a population genetics analysis
Thus, natural selection operates on the sum total of an animal's behavior and physical capabilities.
Also, when biologists talk about "survival of the fittest" it is NOT about individual survival. The classic example is the Black Widow spider, which trades death for the opportunity to mate. The male does this bc it favors passing along his gene set, not its physical survival. Maximizing survival of its gene set is what matters (the whole genome, not one individual gene).
I suspect u understand this as well as I do, but just wanted to make sure for the non,,-biologists that might engage in this convo.
Dr Brin:
a motion to secede has reached the required signatures to appear as a voter initiative on the ballot in Texas.
So we no longer have to concern ourselves with the Texas/Mexican border, and no Republican would ever win a US presidential election again? Not sure I see a downside.
John Viril:
The classic example is the Black Widow spider, which trades death for the opportunity to mate. The male does this bc it favors passing along his gene set, not its physical survival.
I suspect the individual male spider just wants to get laid. The survival of his gene set is a good example of the Invisible Hand at work.
However, last I kept up with this sort of thing, no such models were ever generally applicable and in every case a simpler gene-centric model also worked.
Darrell,
In the 90s and early nights, a group of biologists developed something called the multilevel selection. They saw the "levels" as gene, cell, individual, group.
They said that inclusive fitness couldn't explain the rapid cultural evolution of human civilization.
E. O. Wilson (the founder of sociobiology) summarized, "In a group, selfish individuals beat altruistic individuals. But, groups of altruistic individuals beat groups of selfish individuals."
Wilson ties the multilevel selection theory regarding humans to another theory, gene–culture coevolution, by acknowledging that culture seems to characterize a group-level mechanism for human groups to adapt to environmental changes
Boom!
Colorado Supreme Court has disqualified Trump from appearing on the presidential ballot.
(What will the USSC do?)
Will other states follow suit?
Tony Fisk:
Colorado Supreme Court has disqualified Trump from appearing on the presidential ballot.
If Trump remains the Republican nominee, what happens then? No Republican on the ballot for president? Or does someone else get to take his place in just that state?
Will other states follow suit?
The states most likely to follow suit aren't the ones where Trump would win.
The Supreme Court is, well, supreme. If they take the case, then their decision applies to ALL states. If they rule to disqualify, then it's over for DT. If they rule to allow, then DT is effectively above the constitution, and SCOTUS is no longer needed.
re Texas balloting to secede. Just remember this. When the entire Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, Houston corridor then secedes from Texas, we'll suport our 21st Century sistren/brethren/othren. A wide high speed rail and industrial/educated corridor. Enjoy your fast-depleting oil and soon obsolete beef. Especially when your children flock to college visas in America.
Hmmm…. Doesn’t look like beef is obsolete http://theviews.org/Life%20at%20the%20Views/2023/august-7-2023-prime-rib.html .
Dr Brin:
Especially when your children flock to college visas in America.
They'll build a wall to keep immigrants out and their children and pregnant women in.
scidata:
If they take the case, then their decision applies to ALL states. If they rule to disqualify, then it's over for DT. If they rule to allow, then DT is effectively above the constitution,
There's a third option, though it would probably be hard to justify. If they don't take the case and leave it up to the individual states.
I'm a bit on edge about this decision. On the one had, I'm personally happy to see a court rule that Trump is an insurrectionist and therefore ineligible for office. On the other hand, I'm afraid many on-the-fence voters will see it as a political trick and be incensed enough to support Republican authoritarianism as a response to Democratic overreach.
MCS we can make beef obsolete-enough. Tissue culture for burgers for the insistent. Though most will be fine with substitutes. And CO and CA and the rest can satisfy occasional steak-lovers.
Monbiot has been championing biofermentation techniques for the basic protein needs of the world (see 'Regenesis'). This technology is ready for scaling up for 'prime' time now. He had thought texturing of meat substitutes was going to take a while longer, but has recently found it's basically there for turning out a side of steak.
Now for the coaxing...
John Viril,
AND THAT CULLING OPERATES ON THE ENTIRE GENE SET THE ANIMAL POSSESSES
Well… that's kind of a distinction about nothing.
Start with a large population that is essentially identical with their BW vision. Wave a magic wand and give a few color vision so they can see that beneficial fruit distinguishing when it is finally ripe and no longer poisonous.
1. Those getting the better diet might live longer or produce more offspring that are likely to produce more offspring.
2. Those stuck with BW vision don't eat as well while also being stuck competing in the same niche with their cousins who have color vision. The BW seers will get displaced over time by those more successful competitors… which means their entire gene set gets culled.
3. Except… their entire gene set is almost identical to their colored vision relatives. That means most of the genes from the population getting culled actually survive.
The net effect of all this is selection operates against the gene that resulted in BW vision. It gets replaced.
—————
The historical analog for this occurred near the 50 kya bottleneck I think. Homo Sapiens was already out of Africa, but a small population got caught in a climate refuge and learned a trick that might have involved a small genetic adjustment but it resulted in a huge cultural adjustment. What the trick did was make us a little less xenophobic. That's a big deal because xenophobic humans likely didn't trade (thus economize on an open resource set) with people outside their kinship group.
Being slightly less xenophobic with respect to other humans means we might think that person from the next valley over still smells bad, but we can put up with it long enough to swap X for Y with them. Like colored vision, being able to trade like that enabled the less xenophobic ones to leverage larger groups when it came to the division of labor. That's a huge, frickin' deal!
People with this small change left Africa too… and now pretty much every human alive today is one of us… but we carry most of the genes of our formerly more xenophobic relatives.
——
Trade as we engage in today is a very recent human development. We were already Homo Sapiens before it happened. Maybe someday we will find a gene that 'caused' this, but it's still possible it wasn't a gene at all. It might have been a meme learned by a few people caught in a climate refuge. Last I heard the jury is still out.
Regarding the Colorado ballot, I heard the decision was about their primary ballot. There is no reason the Colorado GOP can't just pick Trump as their nominee anyway. They might have an option to refuse to run a primary at all.
Remember that primaries are really about a party deciding who they will run in an election. Most courts frown on people getting in the way of parties making these decisions as they see limits like this as limits on speech, assembly, and the franchise.
Y'all might not like this, but it is useful to look up California's efforts to change its primaries. It took us a few tries to come up with what we have now. Earlier attempts got shot down by our own courts.
What we have now leaves just enough of an opening for parties to refuse to count votes for people outside their party... but only for President. For offices that represent Californians directly, we've managed to construct our jungle system which turned primary/regular election pair into a regular/runoff pair even though we don't call them that.
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/colorado-trump-14th-amendment-12-19-23/index.html
You progressive liberal leftists have really 'screwed the pooch' this time.
You've done declared Trump 'guilty' of insurrection & invoked 14th amendment punishment without due legal process, a jury trial, the assistance of counsel, the use of witnesses or the initial presumption of innocence.
Although this ruling will be subject to a rapid appeal to SCOTUS, the outcome of this appeal really does not matter one whit, as either outcome will bring us so much closer to Civil War because (1) the progressive left has just pissed all over traditional US jurisprudence & the rule-of-law and (2) there are 30+ GOP-controlled state supreme courts out there who will declare Joe Biden & every other democrat candidate "insurrectionists" (as in 'ineligible for office') by the same non-legal standard.
I will therefore withdraw from this particular discussion until some time has passed, leaving you all at the mercy of both your own decisions & your ability to convince what's coming for you that you're neither as 'white' nor as 'privileged' as your pale & pasty complexions suggest.
Good luck & God Bless.
Best
_____
Alfred,
You argue in circles, my friend, by asserting that humans are genetically EQUAL & identical but simultaneously DIVERSE & very different, as equality & diversity are incompatible states of being. Of course, Dr. Brin makes similar argument with his DOGMA OF OTHERNESS by perversely claiming that the western premise of EQUALITY may actually represent a unique type of cultural bigotry, bias & exceptionalism, which is both a funny-sad admission from such a zealous proponent of American exceptionalism-cum-bigotry:
“The Dogma of Otherness is a worldview that actually encourages an appetite for newness. A hunger for diversity. An eagerness for change. Tolerance, naturally, plays a major role in the legends spread by this culture", says Dr. Brin, who is so much the westerner that he embraces both EQUALITY & DIVERSITY while acknowledging that other equally valid cultures despise all-of-the-above, and so he dithers as the diversity he values chants "from the river to the sea" & plans his genocide.
Cognitive Dissonance follows and the end result is cultural extinction.
ASIUI, the insurrection plans were only approved by Trump, not originated by him. He might've refused them, leaving prosecutors little reason to look closer. This does not suggest the presence of a lot of "Intestinal fortitude", but suggests there's little "There" there. He might even be open to nearly anything, if it's pitched by an attractive woman. Less than Presidential, unlikely to reverse the (GOP) decisions that contributed to the creation of the "Rust belt"*.
*Primarily, a tax code change that made it suddenly more expensive to update existing factories, but made the Reagan tax cuts slightly less ruinous. Hey, it's not likely that many steel workers would've voted for him, what did Reagan owe them?
Tony Fisk re meat substitutes:
Now for the coaxing...
That's going to be the big impediment. Experience tells me that, in the US anyway, there will be a backlash movement about "They'll take my hamburgers from my cold, dead hand!" It may be egged on by the beef industry, but there will be true believers among the rank and file. Not to mention when FOX gets on the bandwagon, and Donald Trump runs on "Only I can save your Big Macs!!! #SAD"
Alfred Differ:
Regarding the Colorado ballot, I heard the decision was about their primary ballot.
I had heard that they weren't going to rule on the primary ballot, but essentially said, "Check back at actual election time." Maybe that was a different state.
It does seem to me that the primary ballot is a matter for the party to decide, not the courts. The Constitution doesn't discuss who can run for office, only who can occupy it.
Yeah, sounds right...
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2023/Items/Dec20-1.html
Trump is not going to win in Colorado in 2024. Or, if he does, it will mean a wave so red that Colorado's EVs don't matter. So, the main significance of yesterday's ruling is that it effectively forces the U.S. Supreme Court to take up the question.
John Viril said . . .
"Second, "the gene" isn't really the unit selection operates upon. Take for example an animal that has developed some form of color vision vs. back and white vision."
Alfred explained why the example you gave doesn't support organism level selection. What your example does show is that it's complicated. Many genes all "competing" to copy themselves. It's been awhile since I really studied this, but what it comes down to is what the math shows. By far, not even close, gene-centric mathematical models correspond with empirical observations better than any other models. I'm not saying that people shouldn't pursue other models, of course they should. But so far none can compete with gene-centric models in the amount of evidence / verifications supporting them.
E.O. Wilson was a great biologist and by all accounts a truly decent person. But the preponderance of the evidence is not in favor of some of his ideas, including Group Selection. Below is a quote from an article written by evolutionary biologist Jerry Coyne. In his article he placed several links, which I've reproduced just in case you are interested.
"But on to the science. In the interview, Wilson maintains, as he has before, that group selection is the explanation for the evolution of altruism in humans. In his most recent set of books, he’s also maintained that nearly all traits that ‘make us human’, including creativity, music, and so on, also came via group selection. Further, he’s maintained that eusociality in social insects (the division of the colony into non-reproducing but cooperating castes, with a reproductive queen) also had nothing to do with kin selection, but was also the product of differential reproduction and extinction of groups.
Virtually every expert in insect social evolution has objected to Wilson’s view, given in a paper in Nature with Tarnita and Nowak. Apparently the only people who accept Wilson et al.’s view are the three authors of that paper, along with group-selection enthusiasts like David Sloan Wilson. You can see all my posts on this controversy here and here.)* I also wrote a critical review of Wilson’s book The Social Conquest of Earth, which laid out his group selection ideas for humans, in the Times Literary Supplement; the review is paywalled, but I have copyright and posted my review here. Finally, you can see links to letters in Nature from the 140-odd evolutionists who objected to Wilson et al.’s view of group selection as the cause of eusociality in insects at this post. (I was one of the signatories.)"
*These two links are two search results pages. On the first one relevant hits begin with about the 3rd article, and on the second the articles aren't really on topic, but interesting nonetheless.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/opinion/trump-supreme-court-immunity.html
...
If the court nevertheless distorts precedent and principle to endorse some version of Mr. Trump’s logic [ on Presidential Immunity ]...
It will also send a chilling message that Mr. Trump may be able to carry out some of what he appears poised to do in a second term — pursue political enemies, abuse the Insurrection Act, decimate the civil service — emboldened by the knowledge that the Supreme Court will stand as no obstacle.
Isn't the elephant in the room--or in this case, donkey in the room--that if presidents have absolute power and absolute immunity, then those apply right now to Joe Biden?
I know that Biden is not temperamentally likely to abuse his power to prevent Trump from being able to, but in my Summer Daydream, Biden goes nuts doing everything Trump claims he's planning to, just so that the supreme court will rule that he--that the President--can't do that.
Nope, gotta have real beef for these http://theviews.org/Life%20at%20the%20Views/2023/august-1-2023-thunder-and-new-grill.html , no substitutes allowed!
Regarding the discussion about genes vs culture, some might find this article interesting.
How much variation in human behavior is due to variation in our genes? Answer: quite a bit.
The majority of the article is the author relating definitions, explanations and caveats. If you are interested in this topic I strongly urge you to click through and read the entire article. Some excerpts . . .
"Based on studies of other species, we know that virtually all studies of traits that vary among individuals—be those traits morphological, physiological, or behavioral—show that some or even a lot of the variation in a population is based on variation in the genes of different individuals. (I know of only three studies in animals, out of thousands done, that failed to find a genetic basis for variation among analyzed traits. Two of the three studies were mine, and all were on directional asymmetry: trying to see if there’s a genetic difference for, say, having more bristles on the right than on the left side of a fly."
"First, though, let’s learn the technical term at issue: heritability. Heritability is a measure that ranges from zero to one (or 0% to 100%), and tells you how much of the observed variation among individuals in a population is based on genetic variation among those individuals. The higher the heritability, the more genetic determination there is of variation in the trait."
"It’s important to grasp several caveats about heritability. First, it is a figure that applies to one interbreeding population at one time—the time of measurement. You cannot apply heritability in one group to a different group that may have different genes and, importantly, different amounts and sources of environmental variation that affect a trait. A population undergoing famine, for example, may show a lower heritability of height because individuals’ heights may be altered by grossly different amounts of food they get."
"Second, heritability says very little about how much a trait can be changed, for genetics isn’t destiny. Yes, the heritability of height may be 70%, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t make people bigger or smaller by feeding them a lot of good food, injecting them with growth hormones, or starving them. When people object to measuring heritability of IQ, for instance, they often mistakenly think that because IQ has a sizable heritability, which it does, it therefore can’t be changed. But that’s bogus; there are many possible interventions that can affect IQ."
"Humans researchers often use twin studies, comparing the similarity between identical twins (which have the same genes) with the similarity between fraternal twins, which share half their genes."
continued below . . .
continued, from the linked article . . .
"There’s one caveat here, too, however. Identical twins often share more environmental commonalities than do fraternal twins. They may be treated more alike, dressed alike, brought up alike, and educated more alike than are fraternal twins. Thus an increased similarity of identical twins need not reflect the identity of their genes, but a greater similarity of their environments."
"One way around the possible environmental similarity is to compare fraternal twins raised together with identical twins separated at birth and raised apart. If the latter still show appreciably greater similarities despite their different environments, that’s a sure sign that the traits measured have substantial heritabilities. However, as you can imagine, there aren’t big samples of identical twins separated at birth."
"This is all a very long prologue to a very short figure I’m going to show you—a figure that comes from this new paper in Nature Human Behavior. It summarizes heritability data for a number of behavioral traits, comparing heritabilities from twin studies to those from association studies."
Link to Paper - Dissecting polygenic signals from genome-wide association studies on human behaviour
"And here’s Figure 2 showing the heritabilities measured both ways. Blue lines and dots give data from twin or family studies, orange lines and dots from association mapping. You can see that association studies produce, as expected, lower estimates of heritability, but I’d expect the true values to be closer to the family-study data). 26 behavioral traits were measured, ranging from educational attainment, IQ as children and adults, amount of drinking and smoking, neuroticism, to mental disorders like schizophrenia."
Link to Figure 2 (Graph) - Fig. 2: Genetic correlations, SNP-based heritabilities and twin/family-based heritabilities.
"For the moment, look at the lengths of the blue bars to the right, which are probably pretty close to accurate estimates of heritabilities. And for most traits they are pretty big, with over 25% of the variation in a trait due to variation in the genes within that population. For some traits, like adult IQ, number of sexual partners, alcohol dependence, autism spectrum placement, and schizophrenia, heritabilities are over 50%."
This is complicated shit. There are so many variables, so many interactions that all we can do as armchair experts is speculate while keeping in mind that both genetics and environment are significantly involved in virtually all traits. People that claim it's nearly all genetic, or it's nearly all environment (none here that I know of!), are simply wrong. Of course, that leaves lots of room in the middle to argue about!
That Nature piece is intriguing. A proto-sapiens that went to the very brink of extinction 900k years ago, and stayed there for over 100k years. The social cohesion must have been nearly Shangri-La level. So much for law of the jungle theories. Cooperation is a super-powerful survival trait.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says that meat grown in a “peach-tree” (Georgian for Petrie) dish means
“next they’ll measure our bowel movements...”
"MTG" is a rather large one. ;)
Alan Brooks quoting Marjorie Taylor (no-longer Greene) :
“next they’ll measure our bowel movements...”
Wait until she hears about recycling phosphorus.
... or how the sanitary dept is already measuring the prevalence of Covid and... other things in the community.
@McS you *vill* eat your lufly beet meat! Oh I don't underestimate the likely pushback against lab steaks. It's understandable: we're primed to react to strange foods with caution at the very least (unlike my dog!). It's going to be orientally interesting when a 'coli cut' becomes cheaper and harder to detect. Forgery will proliferate!
What's happening with the selfish gene theory is the same as for any new theory: it's getting a workout. How far can the basic model be pushed to explain observation and predict things for further study? How many tweaks are needed before the creaking edifice comes crashing down, as happened with Ptolemaic epicycles?
Alfred: “They might have an option to refuse to run a primary at all.”
They are already considering switch to caucus. Which will guarantee a slate of raving jabbering loonies.
“You progressive liberal leftists have really 'screwed the pooch' this time.”
Locum’s inability to parse the many varieties of ‘liberal’ – and now sane conservatives – in the opposing coalition is an example of what he always does… sees in us his own traits. While the MAGA right is fast becoming a uniform, mantra-chanting cult – as happened in other phases of the recurring Civil War… we are, as always, multitudinously diverse…
…but agreed that no firestorm of McVeighs will daunt us, next year. They always do this. Every generation. They assume nerds are cowards and unable to stand up to bullies.
BTW for the record, this bunch here tends to lean moderate with a strong subgroup of Adam Smith (anti-AynRand and anti-feudal) libertarianism. The Woke Wing of our coalition would deem most of us here detestable compromisers. (And a couple of YOU feel that way! And you are welcome here!)
What we share is a nerdy love of science and facts and argument and the palpable possibility of incremental, (wary) progress. So yeah… progressives, I guess.
Dr Brin quotes (I assume) locumranch:
“You progressive liberal leftists have really 'screwed the pooch' this time.”
The mad right--mad in the sense connoting anger plus insanity--seems to think they can continually threaten that if we do X, they will really be mad. They're already spittingly angry and would kill any one of us could they do so without consequence. So really, "How could it be worse? Jehovah! Jehovah!"
Admittedly, we on the other side are often pretty meek about that--not daring to cross one line or another lest we tick them off more than they already are. Personally, I think that Rubicon has been crossed long ago. If we want to keep our Constitutional republic, we have to just keep on keeping on, regardless of what Lord Julius might do*.
They'll like us when we win.**
* A Cerebus reference
** A West Wing reference
No longer Greene? One needs a database for celebrity divorces.
...next they’ll measure our bowel movements...
Ha!
On a serious note... If I had the tech, I'd want that done to track my health. Most of my life I haven't been willing to tolerate a wrist watch. Now they measure my vitals and tell me to get off my butt and exercise a little bit. THAT'S useful(!) because a one week stay in the ICU (10 years ago... amazing) is not something I want to repeat.
Go ahead. Measure my microbiome. Count my stray/wayward WBC's/RBC's. Too bad I can't get my GFR# that way.
----------
locumranch,
...asserting that humans are genetically EQUAL & identical but simultaneously DIVERSE & very different...
Dude. Your math-fu is weak.
However, you appear to be running away again so I shall not bother with a response... except to encourage you to have a wonderful holiday season. Seriously. Go smile at a kid somewhere and enjoy yourself.
AB: the divorce rate among Republican office holders... as well as their rates of convictions for child predation and every other turpitude... OUGHT to be something that SOMEONE raised somewhere, some time. No one ever does.
"Go ahead. Measure my microbiome. "
So long as every person of wealth and power is monitored at least as much
David Roberts @drvolts has taken to prefacing each new 'pederastor' news link with "Jeez, *another* one!!?"
@alfred, company I was working at was developing an e-pill to check your innards out. It sent signals to a small monitor worn externally.
They *said* it was designed to pass as usual.
Genetic arguments have always had a political agenda behind them, even before the word itself existed. The claim that certain people are inherently inferior serves the purpose of arguing against any form of charity. If people are inherently stupid, then spending rich peoples' tax money on educating the poor or minorities is a waste of money and unfair to the "superior" rich. genetics, they believe, trumps any argument that would fall into the nurture camp. However, they are going top have to jettison those arguments as epigenetics gets more press. Epigenetics shows that the environment triggers and controls genetics, which blows their nature arguments right out of the water.
This is not to say that classical genetics has no role to play. Take skin tone as an example. All humans are brown. There arew a couple minor, secondary pigments that can modify the shade a bit, but by far the most influential pigment is melanin, which is brown. How much melanin gets made by any individual's melanocytes - and pumped into the rest of their skin cells from there - depends on having the gene to code for melanin. If you don't have it, you can sunbathe all you like, it won't change the fact that you're an albino. For the rest of us, though, there is a base level of melanin production that relates to the environment your ancestors lived in. If you don't end up with the darkest possible shade, then you can temporarily increase melanin production with increased UV exposure. The UV light triggers the epigenome to manufacture more of that particular protein. When the UV exposure stops, the melanin genes gets shut down, and your summer tan begins to fade.
Now with more complex traits like "intelligence" we know that there are literally hundreds of genes that interact to make it happen, and anything that is epigenetic forms bell curves. No doubt all of those genes have some sort of environmental triggers that activate or switch off protein production. We're not there yet in terms of mapping out every single gene, and every environmental condition that affects gene expression. We do know that both lab mice and humans that grow up in impoverished environments have less effective brains, which is easiest to see by counting dendrites.
Important point: until we actually know exactly what every gene does and how the environment influences the entire epigenome, all arguments that place genes as determinant of any complex behavior are suspect, at the very least.
Paul SB
Paul SB
and anything that is epigenetic forms bell curves
I would be amazed if "anything that is epigenetic forms" NORMAL distributions
I expect that in any optimised system a SKEW NORMAL would be produced
There will be the "hard direction" - the one that the process is optimised for and the "easy direction"
You end up with a short tail on the hard direction and a longer tail on the easy direction
As soon as you get away from the mathematicians throwing coins EVERYTHING is skew normal
I agree 100% with your argument - just I would have skew normal distributions at the core
On another subject, this post references competition and cooperation, which are ideas that much blood and ink are spilt over. In ecology, which is all about relationships, they have found that these two aren't the only options. This is most obvious when you look at symbiotic relationships. They aren't all the same. There are three types. Mutualism is what we usually think of when we hear the word "symbiosis." In mutualism, both species benefit. For example, our gut microfauna get a nice, warm, and moist place to live, inside a being that is highly motivated to introduce food into their homes. In turn, they help to liberate from that food types of nutrients that would otherwise pass right through the digestive system. Another type of symbiosis is called Commensalism. In commensalism, one species gains and advantage, but the other species is unaffected. The classic example is the clownfish and the anemone ... anemonemomenonee (Okay kid, don't hurt yourself!) ... The clownfish is immune to the stinging tentacles, so it can hide there and be safe from predators. The anemone couldn't care less. The third type is Parasitism, which should be pretty familiar. And no, politicians are not technically parasites because they are the same species as they people they predate.
Another example of where competition and cooperation are not an issue is in niche differentiation. In the classic study, biologists examined several species of warblers that shared the same territory, and discovered that they found a way to avoid competition with each other. Although they all eat the same bugs, the birds divide the niche up into micro-niches. One species only forages on the ground, while another forages in the lower branches of trees. Another species has the next few branches up, and a different species forages for bugs in the tops of the trees. This pattern of foraging (and nesting) is repeated at every tree.
The point is that, in spite of the fact that most of us had "competition vs cooperation" pounded into our heads from infancy by way of Cold War propaganda, these are not the only options or the only relationships worth considering. Think about niche differentiation in terms of, say, manufacturing. Manufacturers don't try to make everything, they make specific, usually related, things. That way they are not competing with every manufacturer that exists, they are only competing with those that manufacture the same products. I imagine that other people here can come up with other examples. It might be worthwhile to talk about this phenomenon once in a while, instead of always brining up the same two concepts we hear about all the time.
Paul SB
Duncan,
I'm afraid I was thinking one word and typing another. Bad cold, maybe? Anything that is POLYGENIC will form a normal distribution. That's pretty much cannon in biology. Sorry for the confusion.
Paul SB
They enjoy marriage so much, they divorce and remarry.
The more the merrier/variety is the spice of life.
Polygenic - means multiple genes involved?
Its still an optimised system as a result "sub optimum outcomes" will be more common than "super optimum outcomes"
It will be a "Bell Curve" - but like almost everything else in the real world it will be Skew Normal not "Normal"
Normal distribution is considered to be the "default" - so people will fit their data to that curve - but its actually very rare
A very simple model would be one of my diesel engines - make a random change to one of the settings - the settings that the engineers have worked hard to optimize - what are the chances of improving the performance? - its not zero - but its less than the chance of making it worse
How big a "skew" will depend on how well optimised it is - IMHO evolution will have got most of these setting pretty damn close - but if the skew is very small then that tells us that the system is NOT well optimised
David,
So long as every person of wealth and power is monitored at least as much.
Yah. I get it. I think what we are likely to see in the near future, though, is more of the surprise that caught a lot of us off guard. Many of us expected people wouldn't want to share health data… at least almost never. Turns out many of us give it away for free AND benefit because so much research becomes easier.
But yah. There are nefarious things people can do.
I'm mostly interested in seeing data on the modern shenanigans that would be equivalent to a hexavalent chromium dump. I've lived on or near a lot of military bases. There are SO many superfund sites I just hang my head. It would be nice to have a better, transparent view of what was happening around us.
Tony,
…company I was working at was developing an e-pill…
Heh. No doubt investors had as one of their exit strategies being bought up by Apple so their tech could be folded into the next Apple Watch design…
…or something like that.
Back when I was making all-too-often visits to the hospital they'd strap the little oxygen sensor to my finger to watch for the consequences of my anemia. I bought one after my stay in the ICU so I could check that my home oxygen concentrator was sufficient to the task of keeping me alive while I slept. Hmpf. Nowadays I get one as a standard feature on my watch. It has the standard disclaimer saying it's not for medical use, but I'm not that dense. If my numbers drift low, I shall make it known to my doctor and they can do it in a more official way.
The only med feature on my watch I'm not using is the one that would help me track my menstrual cycle. Heh.
Duncan,
Make the hard and easy directions about equal strength and you get back to normal distributions. Another way to do it is imprecision in the experimental data. If easy and hard are nearly the same but not quite, it takes a lot more data of great quality to see it.
Biologists probably are being a little loose in expecting normal curves, though. A mountain of good data may prove it someday.
Paul SB,
When the UV exposure stops, the melanin genes gets shut down, and your summer tan begins to fade.
There should be some money to be made when we can manage that part of the epigenome. 8)
Imagine the political fun to be had.
Fancy watches that track things
I have one - it was cheap NZ$140 - and it does amazing stuff!!
I have just bought a chest strap heart monitor NZ$90 - to check the accuracy of the watch
The watch encourages me to exercise - I now take the dog for a 5km walk in the morning
In Charles Sheffield's science fiction he has individual "branches" that sit on your shoulder and monitor your body - including checking the stuff you flush
As a walker I want one to look backwards for bikes
As a cyclist I want one that looks backwards for cars
I'm not worried about the rich and powerful knowing about my body - I do want a medical AI to know about it and give me warnings when nessesary
This does not need an intelligent AI - just something that is good at pattern matching and has a huge medical database
Paul SB,
"Think of a puzzle piece, not an athlete." [SJ Gould]
If we vote for a dictator, it may be because young liberals don't know how government works. Emphasis mine:
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2023/Items/Dec21-2.html
...
Young people have always been less enthusiastic about democracy than older people, but the gap is bigger than ever now. Part of the explanation is that younger people did not live through World War II or the Cold War and do not understand what a real dictatorship is like. Instead they are experiencing perpetual gridlock where government can't do anything to improve their lives. They also observe that they can't get a good job or buy a home as easily as their parents. They also feel the government is powerless to deal with climate change and school shootings. If this form of government is useless and can't help them or solve any problems, then why keep it? Of course, when they fantasize about a dictator, they are envisioning a dictator does what they want, not the opposite of what they want.
...
NBC sent reporters out to interview young voters to see how they feel about Biden. Some of them said they would not vote for Biden due to his support for Israel. One 23-year-old man in Wisconsin said: "I genuinely could not live with myself if I voted for someone who's made the decisions that Biden has." The reporter did not ask him what he expected a president Trump to do about the Middle East. That might have been a good follow-up question, but it wasn't asked.
A 24-year-old woman in California said: "It's so complicated, because it almost feels like if I were to give my vote for Biden, I will be showing the Democratic Party that what they are putting out is enough, which is the bare minimum in my opinion." These people are viewing the election as an up-or-down vote of approval for Biden and the Democrats, rather than a choice between two alternatives. Older voters better understand the concept of picking the lesser of two evils rather than voting as a way to make a statement. Biden really needs to frame the election as a choice between two candidates, not a vote to approve/disapprove how he is doing his job.
A 25-year-old man in Colorado bemoaned the fact that Biden made big promises and didn't follow through. He said: "I mean, he could have codified Roe v. Wade, he could have stood up for the rights of people all over the country, he could have done a lot of things, but he didn't." In reality, of course, no president could have codified Roe v. Wade. Only Congress can do that and there wasn't even a majority among Democrats for that, let alone the entire Congress. But the young voter doesn't know that and he is going to punish Biden for it by voting for a third-party candidate.
...
McSandberg:
Any ideas on how to solve this problem?
Universal basic income.
If the politician wants a photo op at a groundbreaking ceremony, which is to say a jobsite, it suggests that the job the voters have hired the politician to do is to create jobs.
The claim that "low tax/education/housing" is "socially optimal" seems to me at best a huge assumption, and one I perceive as very agenda-driven. Democracy to me means everyone gets a seat at the table concerning what criteria should be optimized for, while of course the "republic, not democracy" ideologues (or the "exit, not voice" ideologues, take your pick) would rather limit such clout to the business world. "Classical" "liberalism" at least was a form of "punching up" back when it was a middle class (not in the watered-down American sense) revolt against the (de jure) aristocracy. In the context of today's world, the bourgeoisie are the de facto aristocracy and "classical" "liberalism" is most definitely an ideology of the punching down type, and deserves severe contempt and derision from the working class, and anyone else who hasn't been brainwashed by the well-funded propaganda of the corporate think tanks.
The most interesting thing to me about the Colorado SC ballot ruling, that is now going to the USSC, is that section 3 of the 14th Amendment bars a person from holding office, not merely from being placed on a ballot. In other words, if the USSC upholds the CSC ruling, wouldn't they have ruled that Trump is barred from being POTUS, period?
A Sorokin hit?
Darrell E if the USSC upholds the CSC ruling, wouldn't they have ruled that Trump is barred from being POTUS, period?
And in all states - thus saving the GOP, America, and their own jobs.
Darrell E:
if the USSC upholds the CSC ruling, wouldn't they have ruled that Trump is barred from being POTUS, period?
And if it was a Democrat they were ruling on, I have no doubt they would do just that.
But since it's a Republican, and one backed by an angry army of Brownshirts, I suspect they'll rule narrowly that Colorado is within its rights to kick Trump off their ballot, and leave it to the other 49 states to decide what they wish to do. In other words, states that are already unfriendly to Trump may leave him off the ballot, but states where Trump can win will leave him on.
Darrell E:
To paraphrase Shakespeare's Henry II:
Who will rid us of this turbulent thief?
Colorado is probably blue enough at this point to be categorically not a swing state, and therefore not in play. Trump can easily afford not being on the ballot in Colorado.
I heard the legal challenge to Trump's Colorado candidacy came from Colorado Republicans. Wyoming Republicans kicked Liz Cheney out of the WY GOP. The two rectangular states seem to have vastly different cultures in their state GOP committees.
Lorraine,
Libertarians will occasionally identify me as one of them, but I tend to self identify as a classical liberal. When I do that I usually have to wind up explaining the term to American liberals (often Progressives) who just think it is another form of conservatism. I won't bother doing that here because I've left a large trail of words that should suffice.
I could get behind your UBI ideas… but mostly because it gets our government out of the job of picking winners. I usually dislike the connection between politics and economic support. As you pointed out with elected officials showing up at a new job site, they give the appearance to voters that 'to serve' means getting them hired and then stabilizing their incomes. I see that as a way of buying votes, though not as corruptly as Boss Tweed would have managed it.
The Bourgeoisie can be recognized as three groups with unclear boundaries between them. In the middle are the solid bourgeoisie. On either side are the 'petite' and 'haute' bourgeoisie. In the US we usually put 'the working class' in among the petite bourgeoisie and view the haute bourgeoisie as wanna-be aristocrats.
Neither of these lumpings are entirely accurate, though. At the high end, many high income people are still wage earners and don't think of themselves as aristocrats or even want to be. At the low end, many low income people are trapped by circumstances and maybe even the law… so we should be looking on them as some kind of wage slave or peasant.
Those ground breaking ceremonies you describe are great opportunities to court the votes of wage slaves and those in the middle who still fear slipping down into the petite group. Helping all of them is a good idea, but when our politicians do it we wind up concentrating money into government making big piles of the stuff. It doesn't take a genius to realize what kind of people are drawn to big piles of cash. Two Scoops is willing to do essentially anything for the stuff.
I could get behind a UBI if it reduces opportunities buying votes AND helps the petite bourgeoisie out of traps. As a side benefit, a well designed UBI would also support the middle and help eliminate the drama that occurs when they are laid off/let go and lose access to medical insurance. I despise the connection we have in the US between employment and access to affordable health insurance. We screwed ourselves by hiding the costs and turning them into fringe benefits that aren't so fringe.
I'll get off my soap box now because I've said enough to point out my actual objective. If you think classical liberals are all the same, consider the possibility that it is you that has been brain-washed or subjected to well-funded propaganda. We aren't so simple.
I'd rather see Trump beaten badly at the ballot box. That would go a ways to restoring some of my faith that humans are not a total loss. But I would never want to stand in the way of justice. I'd also love to see Trump go to jail before the election, and having read the several indictments and lived through his reign I think that would be very likely given a fair, unbiased trial. But again, I think the best chain of events would be Trump losing in a landslide in an election in which he is not in jail and is on every ballot.
Actually, I think it is probably critical that Trump be held accountable for the serious crimes he is accused of, given he really is guilty of course. We've been steadily developing the precedent, over several decades at least, that POTUS is above the law and we really need to squash that. Hard. I hope it's not too late.
Darrell E:
We've been steadily developing the precedent, over several decades at least, that POTUS is above the law
Republican presidents, anyway.
The precedent being established is that it is the duty of officials and citizens to politely ignore any potentially-embarrassing contradictions between Republican leaders' words or actions and the rule of law. We all know that Trump attempted an insurrection--some of us would have liked it to succeed--but because "insurrection" is a bad thing and MAGAts consider Trump's insurrection to be a good thing, we can't use the word.
Trump rails against chain migration and anchor babies even though his own family exemplifies in both. But it's impolite to mention that in negative terms, and only a cad would do so. In fact, mentioning Trump's bad behavior in negative terms is a more egregious offense than the behavior itself.
Lots of misinformation this morning:
(1) The Clownfish is NOT genetically immune to anemone poison. It exhibits a behavioral adaption, having learned to rub up against & coat itself with the anemone's own skin secretions that the anemone uses to protect itself from its own stings.
(2) Ashkenazi intelligence is currently attributed to an 'extreme (pre-14th century selective breeding) founder event', indicating that genetic basis of intelligence -- which is also linked to higher rates of autism -- is not very 'polygenic' at all.
(3) Although still of great scientific significance, the Bell Curve & its normal distribution has recently been declared to be a racist heresy against the new Gods of Equality & Diversity, as has any & all statistical analysis which may show any intrinsic (and/or genetic) differences between various identity groups.
From social policy to climate change, Empiric Observation has become a hate crime in this enlightened world of ours, making collective suicide the only socially acceptable response to the many unmentionable problems that we & the Israelis face:
Diversity is our Strength; Elections are a threat to Democracy; Gender is a Social Construct; and Socialism will 'most definitely' work this time.
The Party then told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.
Best
_____
As statistics go, Chicago_Larry's fear of 'brownshirts' is sorely misplaced, as he is much much more likely to be victimised by those who are brown when shirtless, than he is to be attacked by imaginary 'brownshirts' that don't exist, stats available at https://heyjackass.com/
Oh, those wicked, bad, naughty, evil Statistics! Oh, it is so very bad as to reflect reality and it must pay the penalty! You must spank it well, and after you are done with it, you may deal with reality as you like... and then... the oral sex.
It is a parody that writes itself.
It's not so much that it's impolite to mention those sorts of facts about the real world so much as it's fake news. And that really gives some perspective on the magnitude of the problem. Mass detachment from reality, purposefully engineered. Not a few are so far gone that if they had their way they'd kill folks like me and think themselves perfectly righteous while they're at it.
What has been accomplished is that the label "insurrectionist" now officially sticks to Donald Trump. That's an official finding of fact, which not even the SC can reverse.
What the SC will do is hard to predict. Refuse the case, which returns the issue to the states? Then a patchwork of election laws. Take the case and rule for the insurrectionist? How to justify that? And what would remain of their credibility and authority? How about taking the case and ruling against the insurrectionist? Then thunder from the Right.
I'll take the last. They'll do their worst, we'll do our best.
Duncan,
The normal distribution is an average, not an exact model. Normal distributions skew all the time. It's doubtful there is anything that exactly matches that average, just as there is no person in the world who is exactly average.
Paul SB
Alfred,
It would be very interesting to see what happens when we get that kind of control of the epigenome, though I suspect what we will see will resemble The Sneetches.
Paul SB
Darrell,
Right, but a puzzle piece that mutates.
What's the context for this quote?
Paul SB
Paul SB,
...will resemble The Sneetches.
I look forward to that day. I'd love to see it where members of the petite bourgeoisie can get their very own sexy tans that currently stand in for someone having so much leisure time they can sit around in the sun doing nothing. Pulling that off nowadays requires spending money to get baked in front of UV lamps.
I LOVE it when the peasants can afford to buy what was once reserved for the nobles. 8)
------
Seriously, though, I can think of a number of useful things to do. One involves adapting to a new diet. I'm sure there are interesting toxins local to some areas that could be better tolerated or we'd find better ways to clean them out if we are exposed.
This is all a ways off in the future, but not as far as I used to think it was.
I'm not really sold on UBI, I'm merely saying it's the most definitive answer I can think of if one for some reason wants to get politicians to stop optimizing for job creation.
If I were to back the idea of UBI, it would be for the purpose of having a sort of de-facto strike fund spread out over the community, and reducing the recruitability of the reserve army of the unemployed, basically reducing the burden that economic competition places on workers and placing it on employers instead.
UBI will probably never happen, mainly because the people who are for it are for it for radically different reasons and mostly don't trust each other.
Alfred Differ: I'm sure there are interesting toxins local to some areas that could be better tolerated or we'd find better ways to clean them out if we are exposed.
Like that poisonous plant in Guam that's making everyone go senile?
Lorraine,
...poisonous plant in Guam...
Funny you should mention that. What I had been thinking about was extremely hot chili peppers and diets with too much salt.
But yes. There are probably ways to tweak the performance of our kidneys and livers. There'd be all sorts of ways for us to screw up big as we learned, but most of our tech is like that. Fortunately we don't need nuclear powered ball point pens.
LH your list of whiney preenings by dumb-ass 20 year olds certainly is depressing. Bernie/AOC/Liz etc have their work cut out for them, trying to herd such sanctimony cats.
All the more reason for a concerted effort to find better polemics.
Lorraine, Universal Basic Income is an idea that will come, but demanding it NOW instead of incrementally will guarantee our defeat.
We need USEFUL increments, that establish a new floor to build upon. My own best example?
... enact a one paragraph bill that would redefine all Americans under 25 as "seniors' for the purposes of Medicare.
1. Unlike universal, it would be affordable from the start, with just a tweak/slash of supply side aristo parasitism.
2. It would be insanely harsh on anyone opposing it. Nearly all parents in the US would be won over in a shot.
3. People know that children are instinctively the most important... and yet average least costly to insure.
4. A small rider clause could increase the upper limit age by 6 months every year, easing in ever-greater fractions of the population... and lowever thae start age for seniors by the same amount. With that threat looming, WATCH as the insurance companies rush then, to negotiate!
Get it?
But above all, those who cannot recite the accomplishments of the Pelosi Congress 2021-2 should be SLAMMED HARD for their lazy, self-righteous ignorance.
----
The People DID vote against Trump, by large majorities... TWICE! Only a quirk of the Constitution made him President... the Electoral College... over-ruling the clear intent of ht evoters. So NOW you guys complain that another quirk might ban him?
“(2) Ashkenazi intelligence is currently attributed to an 'extreme (pre-14th century selective breeding) founder event', indicating that genetic basis of intelligence -- which is also linked to higher rates of autism -- is not very 'polygenic' at all.”
That’s one interpretation. FAR more likely is that 2000 years of being disallowed a landed aristocracy meant they developed an aristocracy based on meritocratic scholarship… the young rabbi got his choice - the prettiest, healthiest and richest potential wife in town… All while Catholic Europe sent their brightest sons to live in monasteries or take vows of celibacy.
“(3) Although still of great scientific significance, the Bell Curve & its normal distribution has recently been declared to be a racist heresy against the new Gods of Equality & Diversity…”
Here locum raises a valid (partly) point. All sensible folks know there are bell curves as crude but useful approximations. And because the phrase was used to excuse dumb ass versions of racism, it became hazardous to use the term. But science and students still use the concept because – in its non-absurd-racist interpretations (in other words non-locum), it is simply true.
No one here denies that there are woke/PC-police bullies out there who make raging noise – attacking allies - on many campuses. I have personally suffered from such many times. They are an aggravation that seldom does any good for the causes they claim to espouse. Still I will happily wager over…
- whether such twits constitute even 1% as large a lunatic fringe on the left as MAGA/loopy/confed/loons do on the entire right.,,
- whether a regular research university doesn’t see 90% of the campus simply shrugging in irritation at those nutters… while the entire nation trembles in dread over the blatantly murderous intent of much of MAGAdom. Or MAGAdumb.
…as exemplified by the following howler!
“Empiric Observation has become a hate crime in this enlightened world of ours…”
YOURS is the anti-fact cult, fellah. You wage all-out war vs ALL fact using professions, from science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror.
Alfred,
I suspect that a modicum of control over the epigenome would result in a whole lot more pale, blond-haired, blue-eyed people in some places, while others would go the opposite direction. It would be very interesting to track those trends in sociological terms. As to us peasants being able to get what was once reserved for the aristocracy, I completely concur. However, our barely-regulated capitalism may be reversing that trend.
Paul SB
Lorraine,
I'm more than a little leary of UBI as well. The idea of giving money to people who are already rich isn't a good idea. On the other hand, if we give the money to everyone but the rich, people will continue to perceive those who are not rich as inferior and a burden on society. It seems like we just can't win. Maybe it would be a little better if democracies provided the most basic of necessities (food, housing, health care) but left money to the markets, so no one will starve if they don't have money, but the high-T assholes can fight for their egos as much as they like, without the ability to destroy the rest of us.
Paul SB
If Argentina's Milei is any indicator, the next rash of dictatorial types aren't even bothering with figleaves like the Reichstag fire.
Paul SB
In Sweden with a pretty damn good safety net they did a study
People who were unemployed had worse health than employed people -
UNTIL they reached retirement age
Getting a "Benefit" had an adverse effect on the recipients health - getting the same pension as everybody else did NOT
Yes it seems a waste giving a UBI to rich people - but the advantages of making it "Universal" IMHO far far outweigh the costs
Also "the rich" damn well ought to be on the highest tax rate - so their UBI is being taxed at a high rate
Lena said...
"Darrell,
Right, but a puzzle piece that mutates.
What's the context for this quote?
Paul SB"
Yes of course. In the real world everything is always changing.
The context is Gould correcting the colloquial understanding of the phrase "survival of the fittest." As you no doubt are well aware of non-experts don't understand what "fitness" means in the context of evolutionary biology.
Generally speaking I've never really liked Gould all that much and think he is highly over rated, but that pithy, short phrase is very good. He's saying that physical prowess is not an accurate analogy for fitness, that a better analogy is traits that allow an organism to better fit its environment, like finding the right puzzle piece. Which, as you pointed out, is a moving target, and of course organisms themselves cause their environment to change. But all that doesn't fit into a nice pithy phrase. To thoroughly explain evolution requires many books.
Dr Brin:
the young rabbi got his choice - the prettiest, healthiest and richest potential wife in town… All while Catholic Europe sent their brightest sons to live in monasteries or take vows of celibacy.
Or had them duel and joust and battle each other for the top martial spots, killing off their second-tier and third-tier fighters.
In the early 70s, the old Mad Magazine writer David Berg published a book of his own social commentaries from a very middle-class Jewish perspective. I no longer know where the book is to quote directly, but one observation he made is that while medieval Christians tied their concept of manhood to killing each other off, Jewish men proved theirs by "keeping one woman happy."
duncan cairncross:
Yes it seems a waste giving a UBI to rich people - but the advantages of making it "Universal" IMHO far far outweigh the costs
I agree. If a rich man plays the lottery and wins, he gets to keep the money just like a poor person would. We don't say, "Sorry, you have enough already." Likewise, if a rich person and a working class one both own dividend-paying stocks, they each get the same amount per share. It's not a matter of who "needs" it more.
I subscribe to Thomas Paine's theory that something like a UBI is not charity, but a citizenship dividend. In that sense, its universality is a requirement for justifying the concept.
Duncan,
Agreed in general. My suspicion, though, is that we would be better off not going through the intermediary of money. For one, inflation means that governments will have to constantly change the payouts, and governments change far more slowly than market forces. So imagine the government gives everyone X amount of money, with which to pay for food, housing, health care, etc. Then the cost of rent, food, and healthcare skyrocket. The government votes to increase the payout, several months later, after huge numbers of people have been rendered homeless, on the edge of starvation, with dramatically worsening health conditions. And the conservatives in government, owned as they always are by rich business interests that don't want to pay any taxes at all, fight tooth-and-nail against an increase in the payout. Likely we will get a compromise that will improve the situation, but not enough to get most of the newly homeless off the streets, or to offset dramatic increases in health costs caused by worsening conditions for those who couldn't afford to pay for their meds and doctor visits.
Maybe it would work better if democracies guaranteed uniform housing, healthcare, and something along the lines of food stamps to all their citizens. My son calls the idea Laissez-moi M'Ennuyer. If anyone wants more than the bare minimum to survive, they have to work for it, but no one is going to starve, whither on the streets, or die of easily cured illnesses.
Paul SB
Paul SB points at the problem of a UBI. The idea behind a UBI seems to be that it is "Universal" (that is, goes to everyone, without means testing) and that it is "Basic" (in the sense of sufficient to provide for "basic needs" - that is, something along the lines of food, housing, and health care).
The problem with this is that, if it is truly sufficient to provide for "basic needs" (as defined above), first, it will be extremely expensive. And if we maintain a "free market" system for those "basic needs", then there will be a constant ratcheting up of the costs. And this is especially true if it is indeed "universal", because those above the minimum will use the extra to bid up the prices of things like housing.
It would only be practical if the most basic level of "basic needs" were taken out the market. That is, if there were social housing set at some price available to everyone who might need it, some nationalized health insurance also set at some price available to everyone who might need it, and so on (food is less of a problem, because it is a consumable and the price does not get "bit up" in the same way). If this were the case, then one could set a "basic income" sufficient to provide housing, health insurance, and some basic level of food and sundries, with "the market" taking over after the "basic" level.
There would no doubt be a lot of adjustments necessary to implement such a thing, but it could work if done that way. But attempting to implement a UBI when the "Basic"s it is intended to cover remain in the "free market" is asking for chaos.
"of course food and shelter are free! What do you think we are, savages?"
--Robert A. Heinlein
Maybe it would be a little better if democracies provided the most basic of necessities (food, housing, health care) but left money to the markets, so no one will starve if they don't have money, but the high-T assholes can fight for their egos as much as they like, without the ability to destroy the rest of us.
Paul SB,
This sort of dovetails with a vague idea of mine that we should have two different currencies, one for necessities and another for luxuries. The idea is to prevent price inflation from excluding the bottom of the economy from necessary goods.
I don't pretend to have thought through how such a division would work. It's sort of an inchoate germ of an idea. I'm not sure if such a division COULD work given the political combat starting such a system would create.
However, the intuitive appeal is the indecency of echelons of people who start completely frivolous YouTube channels built around slapstick comedy (say Mr. Beast) becoming billionaires and being able to crowd out primary school teachers from obtaining basic housing in high end urban markets. Or the Uber wealthy being able to demand unlimited necessities for providing useless junk to the economy.
I subscribe to Thomas Paine's theory that something like a UBI is not charity, but a citizenship dividend. In that sense, its universality is a requirement for justifying the concept.
Larry, the problem here is, how much of the GDP are you going to collect to redistribute? 10% 20% 30%? Whatever percentage you collect means that only .75 will exit Washington as benefits, which means the bureaucratic parasites will gorge on a new source of revenue.
That why I like the idea of two different currencies, bc it wouldn't require the same kind of bureaucratic filter. Much of the heavy lifting if such a system would be handled by market forces without enriching bureaucratic parasites.
Gregory,
I think you are really getting down to the point with the idea of removing necessities from the market. Let the capitalists have their fun with non-necessities like Taylor Swift tickets and luxury housing, so long as some sort of housing is completely off the market in enough quantity to ensure housing for everybody.
Paul SB
Lorraine, Universal Basic Income is an idea that will come, banding it NOW instead of incrementally will guarantee our defeat
Dr. Brin,
You do realize if 1st world countries start having a UBI, this will require strict borders, right?
Imagine we had pangea, such that undocumented immigrants would have no geographic barriers from going wherever they please. Given the numbers of poor people in the world, loose borders, and a UBI, the global poor would flock to whomever had the highest UBI and progressively break the economy of each 1st world country in turn.
John,
In a sense we have two currencies already - food stamps (or whatever it's called these days). Granted they can only be used to purchase food, but they are essentially the same thing as currency, backed by the Treasury. Your idea sounds more like a substantial expansion of that second currency, like housing vouchers or something similar for healthcare.
As to taxation and redistribution, I suspect that if people's lives weren't at stake, people would complain less about the taxes. In some places people vote to raise their own taxes to improve society overall. Obviously it isn't the right-wing ChristoNazis doing this. Regarding the bureaucracy, the cynicism is unsurprising but counter-productive. Likely there would be less graft if the stakes were lowered this way.
Paul SB
So now there's speculation that the Supreme Court might back up Colorado and disqualify Trump. There's just one way that could happen and that is if Thomas, Kavanaugh, Gorsuch and especially John Roberts get ORDERS to do so, from the oligarchy that they serve. Why would the oligarchs order such a hit on the best asset they ever had, promoting neo-feudalism vs. against the AmericanEnlightenment Experiment?
Two reasons: either Trump torches their main weapon against modernity, the Republican Party... or else he wins and then goes full brownshirt, exactly as he's promising. Whereupon - as at the end of CABARET - they realize too late that they can no longer control him, and he'll rampage through the aristocracy that nurtured him, the way Hitler did.
Either way, they lose. So yeah, They are talking about dumping him. But how? His MAGA/confederate/brownshirt momentum means that no pliably controlled tool like Nikki Haley will come to the rescue. So what are the Masters' options? Here's where I must speculate, starting with the key question...
... what is the consensus aim of the world oligarchic putsch? Is there still a common goal among the casino mafiosi, hedge moguls, carbon lords/sheiks, Prepper fetishists, inheritance brats and "ex"-commissar "former"-stalinists in the relabeled KGB?
1. The goal may be utter demolition of the American-led Enlightenment, by inciting a hot new phase of the recurring, 240 year US Civil War. Certainly many of the Prepper fetishists and sheiks dream of an "Event" tearing down the USA. But the core of this scheme remains, as for 106 years, in Moscow.
Sure, the 'former' commie Putinists look like they are weakening, in Ukraine. But they are the ones holding masses of blackmail kompromat on prominent westerners, especially most of the high goppers. So Putin remains the putative leader of those who want an America in flames. And again... he has the blackmail files on hundreds, including likely Supreme Court 'justices.' (See links* below.)
If that goal truly is the oligarchy's consensus, then the thing they'll want to do with Trump is obviousl. Martyrdom. The 'Howard Beale' option, in such a way as to blame lib'ruls and incite a tsunami of Timothy McVeighs - and much more - across our land.
Continued with #2
continues...
2. If the goal is to salvage something of a Republican Party they can still control, while maintaning a USA that continues to generate wealth and science and new medical advances to save oligarch lives... plus space junkets and all the things that make their wealth worthwhile to any sane person... then a gentler easing out of Trump will suffice. And orders will go out to Roberts & co to do just that.
True, that will incite civil war WITHIN the GOP, as Trump rages against every betrayal by former friends. And yes, November 2024 would see a huge blue wave leading to a surge of legislation that's badly needed for the nation's good... including some rise in taxation of the rich. And it's likely many blackmailed goppers will slide into retirement...
...but the saner aristocrats might realize that being rich in a vibrant, scientific and free civilization is more fun - and conducive of long life - than being a feudal lord amid ashes, hated by all the volcanically angry surviving nerds who know bio, cyber, nuclear, nano and the detailed location of every prepper redoubt.
Anyway, in US politics everything is ephemeral. By 2026 a reformed Republican Party would come roaring back. Count on it. Just make it one with a scintilla of modernity and sanity.
Hence, do I actually think the Supremes would disqualify Trump? Even if Thomas, Kavanaugh, Gorsuch and especially John Roberts get ORDERS to do so, from the oligarchy they serve?
Nah. At this point they are far more afraid of MAGA brownshirts than they are of feudal overlords with blackmail kompromat. Roberts & co. will protect Donald. And we'll have to take him out at the ballot box, ourselves.
---
*https://www.rawstory.com/tim-burchett-congressman/?fbclid=IwAR1JLSO4Fg7rhLMWj6fHclScqf_m7dnVJJ16Hx2DRtQP7L8WfpUOLpsXF5c
* Political Blackmail: The Hidden Danger to Public Servants - https://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/blackmail.html
* https://art19.com/shows/talking-feds/episodes/f3ecef50-f14d-4704-a10c-15e97cd66506?fbclid=IwAR2h4uOGt2gkJ0flWdOxVNjRg3-S24mxuFh7boUrrRmRg3PffLqJ--VZPZY
Your idea sounds more like a substantial expansion of that second currency, like housing vouchers or something similar for healthcare.
Yes, I'd like to create a free market in necessities, except that you can only generate $$$ in that currency IF YOU PRODUCE NECESSITIES.
SO, I would set aside certain food items, housing, health care, education, clothing as necessities. I would include some tech items like a smartphone and Internet access. Infrastructure such as roads, basic housing construction, school construction, farming, basic utilities and transportation access, would also be in that class of goods.
I would like to encourage production of more and better necessary goods, in the hope that the UBI will go up over time.
Say you're a doctor. You, of course would get a UBI, but because your job provides a necessity perhaps you'd be able to earn some of your income in that necessity currency?
The problem with that is you could have high earners hog necessities.
Luke I said, I'm not enough if an economic wizard to create a functioning system like I'm spitballing.
Even if Thomas, Kavanaugh, Gorsuch and especially John Roberts get ORDERS to do so, from the oligarchy they serve?
I always felt that someone had something in Roberts that caused him to flip on Obamacare
You might approve the outcome (btw, I have an Obamacare policy and it has served me well), but Roberts' behavior around that decision was strange.
He was writing the majority opinion to reject it, then flipped. The conservative justices wrote the dissent in such a way that you KNEW Roberts was writing it. They intentionally left errors in the rebuttal (the only reasonable conclusion since justices have phenomenally talented law clerks. No way they missed it).
Go back and listen to the oral arguments and Roberts was clearly against it. Totally feels like someone had something on him.
Of course, Thomas seems clearly compromised---even if only to the extent of subconscious bias. There's no way he can receive so many gifts without creating at least some favoritism.
JV it isn't the 'gifts' that sway Thomas. It is a volcanic grudge. Anita Hill was right... and deeply harmed America. Utterly traumatized, he has one priority... revenge.
Dr. Brin, perhaps. Certainly would make sense, he was put through the public wringer. Can't really do much about it, since he did face an inquiry during his approval process.
However, the current gift scandal resulted in a nothing response from the court. They changed their own internal ethics guidelines, which amounts to nothing more than a fig leaf response.
Very disappointing.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/gop-representative-blackmail-honeypot-congress-b2468559.html Please tell me this congress critter is batshit crazy
No question Thomas is an extreme embarrassment, making the "Hunter!!" screeches all the more urgent. In fact, it is the activities of his wife that are stunningly beyond any pale every even conceived by past courts.
Smitpa the only 'news' there is that someone finally had the guts to step up and speak Truth.
Depends where: New England could institute UBI and UHC; the rest of the country isn’t civilized enough to do so.
Smitpa the only 'news' there is that someone finally had the guts to step up and speak Truth.
Honeytraps have probably been used as long as there have been rulers to compromise. Perhaps part of the solution is to become "French" about political sex scandals that don't involve minors or abuse of power. Thus, you'd reduce the power of the blackmailers. It would still work, though bc spouses aren't likely to be so blase, and spouses are a political asset.
JV - I love the story of the French diplomat, lured into a honeypot tryst in a Moscow hotel, is shown pictures and explodes in outrage.
"You call THIS photography? My wife would be shamed on my behalf. I demand a re-do!!"
John Viril:
Thomas seems clearly compromised---even if only to the extent of subconscious bias. There's no way he can receive so many gifts without creating at least some favoritism.
The story I've been hearing lately is that back around 2000 or so, Thomas began complaining to his rich Republican supporters that he wasn't making enough money, and that he might resign and go to work in the private sector instead. At that time, the conservative majority on the court was still tenuous, and a replacement would have been appointed by President Clinton or maybe President Gore. So suddenly, the gifts began rolling in.
It's not the gifts which create the favoritism. Rather, it's the favoritism--and the risk of losing it--which prompted the gifts.
John Viril:
become "French" about political sex scandals that don't involve minors or abuse of power. Thus, you'd reduce the power of the blackmailers.
I dunno, they must have something really embarrassing on Lindsey Graham to have so completely turned him from Trump opponent (in 2016) into fawning sycophant. For the sake of his soul, I hope he's not simply trying to keep word of his sexual preference from getting out, because...
Well, I've told this story before, but not since your arrival on these shores. There's a comic series called Saga which has a lot of magic-as-kind-of-science in it. So the male protagonist can cast spells, but each requires certain "ingredients". In one situation, he screams to his wife that he requires a secret in order to make the necessary spell work. She blurts out, "I'm not as tall as I tell people I am." To which our hero replies:
"Do I really have to explain what a secret is?"
Larry Hart:
Look at Godfather part 2 to see how bad blackmail can get. A live boy or a dead girl.
John Viril said...
Larry, the problem here is, how much of the GDP are you going to collect to redistribute?
10% 20% 30%? Whatever percentage you collect means that only .75 will exit Washington as benefits, which means the bureaucratic parasites will gorge on a new source of revenue.
I think you miss one of the selling points of a UBI. Most of the bureaucracy involved in benefits programs is there to prevent people from getting some benefit that they don't "deserve". Lots of forms, and controls, and checks, and double-(and triple-)checks, and so forth. One of the selling points of a UBI is that most of this can just stop. Everyone gets the UBI, so there are no complicated formulas, no checks for whether someone falls under the program, etc.
But the idea of "two different currencies" starts to create a need for a new bureaucracy. What falls under 'currency A' and what under 'currency B'? How do you ensure that people aren't cheating, or exchanging the one for the other, or a host of other things?
And if you go toward something like:
Say you're a doctor. You, of course would get a UBI, but because your job provides a necessity perhaps you'd be able to earn some of your income in that necessity currency?
Then you end up creating another bureaucracy involved in determining what part of income comes in "necessary currency" and what does not, and ensuring that the rules are properly followed.
Too many USAmericans (especially, though not uniquely) have been convinced (brainwashed?) that "the free market" is the answer to every problem.
But economists will tell you (if they are being honest) that there are a collection of conditions that are required for "the free market" actually to work. Those conditions are very rarely satisfied, but often the reality is close enough to the model for the market to work more or less adequately.
In other types of cases, the required conditions cannot be met, even minimally. Unfortunately, rather than simply accept the reality, there are those who are wedded to "the free market", and so choose instead to expend a great deal of effort in attempting to force such cases into a "free market" model. This never works well. Some arguments for a UBI are just such arguments; Milton Friedman had such an idea, and his was that this would allow "the free market" to deal with the problem.
(This is another reason why a UBI would be difficult to implement. Some ("the left", for example) see it as an alternative to "the free market"; others (the "libertarian" right, for example) see it as a way to make "the free market" work - or at least pretend to.)
Paradoctor:
A live boy or a dead girl.
I'm just saying that in Lindsey Graham's case, the "live boy" isn't something to sell your soul to keep from coming out. That horse has already left the barn.
* * *
gregory byshenk:
One of the selling points of a UBI is that most of this can just stop. Everyone gets the UBI, so there are no complicated formulas, no checks for whether someone falls under the program, etc.
That's also a benefit of universal health insurance. Think of how much time and effort the system devotes to the work of proving (or denying) eligibility.
Larry Hart:
Then dead girl it is. That's how Michael Corleone broke a senator in Godfather 2.
In a sense sewage, fire-fighting, the police, military protection, most roads, and most bridges are UBI. Everyone gets them, no means-testing. UBI is yours 'by breath-right'; you earn it by breathing.
JV it isn't the 'gifts' that sway Thomas. It is a volcanic grudge... he has one priority... revenge.
Is it 'revenge' or 'justice' which motivates the Israeli incursion into Gaza after October 7? And, who, exactly, told you that having such a motivation was in any way immoral or uncivilised?
The above is an interesting statement from someone who holds a substantial grudge against feudalism & oligarchy.
Best
_____
If "UBI is yours 'by breath-right' -- you earn it by breathing", then what other "rights" does one "earn by breathing"? Do they include the 'right' to confiscate, redistribute & reallocate someone else's money, food, labour, housing, property or spouse? Please specify from where these 'rights' originate & where do they end.
Locum:
If you prefer, then you may call it 'breath-privilege'. Its source is the pragmatic advantage that anything existing has over anything not existing.
If you want to talk of ideals and rights, rather than pragmatism and privilege: your breath-right to travel the streets of the city derives from the right of the city to exist. Ideally, civilization should not charge its citizens the use of what both require. That's the ideal; the pragmatic compromise with necessity usually involves fees, licenses, or taxation.
One may object that existence is not a right; it is a hard-earned privilege. Part of the way the city earns its existence is by giving away breath-rights, paid for by taxation.
And of course taxation is theft; but it's as inevitable as death. The questions are; how much will the thieves steal, and will it be many little thieves, or one big thief? Usually it's cheaper to pay off one big thief to suppress the many little thieves; but you should keep a wary eye on the one big thief.
Paradoctor:
Then dead girl it is. That's how Michael Corleone broke a senator in Godfather 2.
In that movie, it wasn't even blackmail. The Senator was so befuddled that he actually believed he had killed the girl (though he didn't remember what happened). "We were just playing!" If I'm interpreting the movie correctly, Michael Corleone didn't blackmail him with pictures or anything. He demonstrated what value there was for the senator to have the Corleones as friends and allies, willing to cover up the incident at their own hotel.
In both movies, the respective Dons Corleone didn't derive their power solely from threats and intimidation. They gave loyalty and favors in return for the same from others. This is something that Donald Trump quite willfully fails to understand.
UBI is yours 'by breath-right'; you earn it by breathing
If the religious right gets its way, even breathing isn't a requirement. Unborn zygotes, embryos, and fetuses would be eligible as well.
"in Lindsey Graham's case, the "live boy" isn't something to sell your soul to keep from coming out. That horse has already left the barn."
The gayness thing he'd survive easily nowadays, even in SCarolina. So it's some kind of thing with minors. Something unforgivable.
re locum's latest. Criminy. So much for the California theory.
One definition:
If your family/friends receive benefits, the benefits are a right.
For those outside your circles, the benefits are privilege.
Dr Brin:
The gayness thing he'd survive easily nowadays, even in SCarolina.
My point is that he's already survived that one because it's so obvious and yet he's still in office. So I hope he's not selling his soul just to protect that "secret". For his own sake, I mean.
So it's some kind of thing with minors. Something unforgivable.
There must be pictures of him dressed as a woman and doing outrageous sexual things in that capacity. Most likely with him on the receiving end, so to speak.
Hart, Brin:
You are too optimistic. The compromat is stronger than anything to do with Eros, however kinky. I say this points to Thanatos - which is by definition unforgivable. So I repeat my speculation: dead girl. But Brin, you may be right, so maybe dead minor girl.
Or, it could be about money.
I ask: when will we get definitive proof/disproof of these speculations? The Epstein records may help.
Alan Brooks:
Here's a declined noun:
My rights; your privileges; his impositions.
This is over my head: I’m as ignorant as he, in a different way.
It was a legitimate question to ask where 'rights' come from.
Once we argued that rights were god-given & of divine origin. Natural rights were thought to predate human laws, customs & culture; human rights arguably originate from within the human being spontaneously; civil rights are entirely dependent on human laws, customs & culture; and might makes right predates all-of-the-above.
So, I ask again, where do these so-call 'breath-rights' originate? Do they spring from inspiration, expiration or both? If inspiration alone, do these rights require mental stimulation? If expiration alone, is death a prerequisite?
And how, exactly, are these rights enforced?
Best
Please do tell us, as a special Christmas Eve present.
'It was a legitimate question to ask where 'rights' come from.'
The legit question was embedded in such a fiizzing spew of fecal swill that I was in no mood to distill it. Starting with the notion that a Supreme Court "justice" utterly obsessed with only one criterion - revenge against eggheads and factfolk - is somehow a legitimate position one coulld defend.
Choose. If you want actual discussion of sober issues, control your masturbatory howls and screeches at made up strawmen,
'a fizzing spew of fecal swill'
Sounds like my homemade eggnog.
The (despicable) notion that a Supreme Court "justice" utterly obsessed with only one criterion - revenge against eggheads and factfolk - is somehow a legitimate position one coulld defend.
From an apparent supporter of cultural relativism, one who often argues that it's wrong to judge 'the other' by our own idiosyncratic standards of right, wrong, strange & normal, this is an unusual line of argument.
This 'fizzy spew', as it was most elegantly put, is a simple acknowledgement that other non-Christian non-Western cultures are much less likely to endorse 'forgiveness' as a moral ideal & more likely to endorse the globally prevalent 'revenge motive' which will assuredly become ever more dominant as the West becomes less European & less Christian.
A lot has been written on this subject. Just google 'Revenge as a cultural motive' for more info or, if you prefer a brief synopsis, click on the below link:
https://www.apa.org/monitor/2009/06/revenge
Best
Why grant citizens rights/privileges merely for breathing? To simplify administration. Skipping means-testing saves a lot of money and trouble. You _can't_ put toll booths at every traffic intersection, if you want a road grid at all. The city lives by traffic, so it must let the people wander around for free. That's a breath-right, derived from the city's right to exist.
Also to make a political point, as a show of solidarity. Also as an ideological point: that the rulers of the city _believe_ in the virtue of those breath-rights.
Where do breath-rights, or any rights at all, "come from"? What a strange question! What does it mean? Are you seeking the location of the Fountain of Rights? Or the True Name of the Daemon of Rights? Or the atomic number of Rightsium?
Another name for breath-rights is 'dignity culture', which grants respect to everyone without the demand to earn it. In contrast is 'honor culture', which demands that all respect must be earned. Obviously all cultures are a compromise and a mixture of the two.
The trouble with honor culture is that top honor has no honor. The Man holds in check all those, and only those, who do not hold themselves in check. Does the Man hold the Man in check?
The trouble with dignity culture is that egalitarianism requires meritocracy. It must deny that there are superior persons and superior positions, and it must put superior persons in those superior positions.
The cognitive dissonance is strong in this one:
Egalitarianism and meritocracy are two competing principles to distribute the joint benefits from cooperation. One could debate their relative merits and side for one or the other. In other words, these are non-compatible principles.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0899825615000445
Best
"From an apparent supporter of cultural relativism,"
EXACTLY! That's apparent to you. To you in your dizzy haze of mastubation hallucinations. The hallucinations may not be your fault. Incuriously ignoring the crit of smart-others who complain about your mean-minded hate jerk-off strawmwn? THAT is a mark of bad character. I read no further....
Paradoctor:
Does the Man hold the Man in check?
Occasionally yes. George Washington did. One could make the case that Jesus did. Still, the sparseness of actual examples are merely exceptions which prove the rule by their scarcity.
Locum:
Good. You are on track. You need only put two and two together.
Namely: egalitarianism and meritocracy are non-compatible principles. I agree! Yet I also believe that they require each other.
How can such a thing be? How can non-compatible principles be mutually dependent? To which I reply: how can they not?
For instance, to have a society of equal rights, you need the best at the top to keep it running fairly; and to have the best at the top, you need equal rights to ensure that the best rise to the top.
One can multiply such examples of opposites attracting. They all involve paradox, and therefore they tend to be ignored by binary thinkers, such as robots, fanatics, and ideologues.
Paradoctor:
It must deny that there are superior persons and superior positions, and it must put superior persons in those superior positions
???
Egalitarianism need not deny that some people are better at others at specific things, and that positions requiring specific traits are best populated by those who excel at those traits. One can acknowledge such self-evident truths without requiring that we see the excellent baker or the awesome athlete or the wise judge as "superiour persons" in general.
Michael Jordon is a superior basketball player, which didn't make him more than a mediocre baseball player. My sister-in-law is the best cook in the family, but she's a Republican. The examples are endless.
* * *
I was going to end it there, but then another thought stuck me. Dignity culture grants dignity to every human being (or sapient being) without first making them prove eligibility. But it can allow them to demonstrate unworthiness after the fact. I don't owe the person who actively tries to kill me as I do a total stranger, let alone a friend or colleague.
Seems to me that dignity culture means a person is assumed to be worthy of dignity until proven otherwise. As opposed to what you called honor culture, in which a person is presumed unworthy until proven otherwise. But neither prevents a person from earning a promotion or demotion by way of actions.
"Mutually dependent incompatible" principles = "complementary" principles.
Larry Hart:
Dignity culture = worthy until proven unworthy.
Honor culture = unworthy until proven worthy.
That's like the difference between English common law and the Napoleonic code.
LH - You need egalitarian starting-assumptions in order for meritocracy to work and deliver its cornucopia. In other words, cooperation - through maturely negotiated politics – is necessary for markets etc to set up arenas for fair and fecund competition. Given the reflex from evolution is for the winners of previous rounds to then press their advantages and cheat… an egalitarian reflex – at least for life’s starting conditions – is absolutely essential for competition to deliver its miracle.
Alas, that is far too multidimensional for any resident of flatland – or line-land – to grasp.
Now onward
onward
onward
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