Writing this during the month after D-Day commemorations, I want to start by linking to a fine essay about how the world changed after World War II, spreading (more widely, though unevenly) the notion and reality of a largely educated and comfortable and free middle class, a dream and partial reality that Karl Marx never imagined possible...
...only the world then changed then again, when the 6000 year disease of oligarchy began re-asserting itself, dissolving the social contract set up by the Greatest Generation and - ironically - reviving Marx from the dustbin where middle-class society had tossed him.
The author of that article is slightly to the left of my "Maher-Liberalism," but makes strong points - sometimes citing me - about why today's oligarchy never does anything practical to benefit the ill-educated whites who are their ground troops in a re-ignited confederacy.
As in the 1860s, and every other phase of the ongoing U.S. Civil War, those poor whites are propelled far more by resentment and revenge, than they are by practical considerations. Especially resentment of every 'nerdy' or fact-using profession... those high IQ stoopid people derided by an Ivy League graduate with a fake-folksy accent.
Hatred of the very same professions who created all the wealth and technologies and social advances that 'made America great.' The same nerds - from science to law to medicine to journalism, teaching and civil service, all the way to the civil servants and officer corps - who block re-imposition of feudalism.
The Weekly Sift essay includes my comparisons of Asimov's psychohistory to the astonishingly effective sci fi self-preventing prophecies of Karl Marx.
Science fiction authors tend to notice such things. Which is why most of us lean mostly-progressive. Very few of us speak up for a return to those 60 centuries of lobotomized feudal oppression, the way that Orson Scott Card does, with utter-dogmatic repetitiveness. In fact, the unfairly-maligned Robert Heinlein's most vehement denunciations were aimed at America's recurring dalliance with fascist racism, aristocratism and anti-intellectual rage.
I say all that, even though I am also unabashed in pointing out - now and then - the countless, loony tactical errors - often driven by egoistic sanctimony - that cripple the partisans of progress. Errors that keep giving varied versions of fascism yet another chance, then another...
No, we can only serve future generations if we are practical about our tactics and designs, re-assessing what works and building the sort of broad coalitions that defeated naziism and Stalinism and Klanism. And so...
== Points about utilitarianism ... ==
1) The Enlightenment Experiment (EE) of the last 300 years involved many, many theoretical discussions of ethics… and almost none of them interest me! Because I know that I am a delusional ape, transfixed by ornate-sounding incantations! Indeed I have seen what delusional incantations have done in the past, even when well-intended.
I care about outcomes, especially those that increase the likelihood that this ape’s descendants will deal with all the hifalutin quandaries and questions and big-matters, far better than I can.
Even utilitarianism – which comes closest – misses the mark with the cliché phrase ‘greatest good for the greatest number.’
2) What the Enlightenment Experiment has accomplished that is of pragmatic utility is providing systems that maximize critical input from an ever-widening pool of perceptual participants!
This broadening of empowered input reduced the greatest crime of feudalism… waste of talent. It also led (barely just in time) maximizing discovery of delusional errors.
These two endeavors resulted in by far the most successful – by any measure – civilization in all history. And the most self-critical, with millions determined not to repeat mistakes of past generations. And to denounce every new one!
3) This expansion of empowered participation required more than simply feeding and educating more children, expanding inclusive rights, flattening hierarchies and encouraging criticism.
It also required the creation of systemically regulated. Arenas within which creative adversaries can compete. But that means replacing the brutal forms of competition seen in nature and in feudalism with regulated competition - like how sports leagues operate in tightly umpired ways that maximize positive sum outcomes, by reducing cheating and minimizing blood on the floor.
(Nature also uses competition and is fecundly creative - it made us. But Nature's competitive creativity is also spectacularly bloody and inefficient. Regulated arenas seem capable of getting competition's benefits in much more positive sum and gentler ways.)
These highly-creative arenas of ritual competition are markets, democracy, science courts and (as I just said) sports. (Some might add journalism). I describe the process here: "Disputation Arenas: Harnessing Conflict and Competition." (This early version appeared as the lead article in the American Bar Association's Journal on Dispute Resolution (Ohio State University), v.15, N.3, pp 597-618, Aug. 2000.)
As I said, by regulating competition to keep it flat, open, fair, these arenas become positive sum. But maintaining them and suppressing the recurring poison of cheating requires constant attention, fine tuning and hard work
Cynics claim that this dynamic may have worked well for a while (the Rooseveltean social contract) and somewhat for 250 years, but it cannot be maintained:
“Once the technological/ developmental gap is sufficiently large those dynamics which operate largely under our control and in our favor can quickly change, and former allies become the new masters”.
But I answer twofold:
1- Yes the odds have always been against the Enlightenment Experiment! Human nature pushes toward the feudalism trap and escapes are rare.
2- Despite that, there is NO such cause effect imperative or automatic outcome!
Oh, sure, there is always an attractor, in each of the arenas, for cheaters to find ways around the rules, often conniving together. The feudal attractor state is driven by primitive male reproductive strategies that pervade not just Homo sapiens but nearly all species...
And yet, so? Preventing that failure mode is one of the jobs of open, enlightenment politics… sincere negotiation of the incentives and regulations that keep those arena playing fields ever-more flat-fair-creative. Indeed, for feudalism to be restored, the world oligarchy’s top priority must be to destroy “politics” as a means of deliberative negotiated problem solving, especially in the United States.
And boy, that plot has been successful! So far!
What many neglect is the long history of successful efforts to control and stymie that attractor tendency...
...including the way that YOU and YOUR VALUES fit into it all, since you are a product of the most extensive propaganda campaign ever waged. Called Hollywood.
I find it bizarre how many folks - bright ones - seem addicted to the smug notion that "I and just a few others invented suspicion of authority!"
Not. You suckled your values from the teat of Hollywood, same as all your neighbors. See Vivid Tomorrows: Science Fiction and Hollywood. So let's fight for that Enlightenment Experiment that may give our heirs the stars!
Just have some calm sense of proportion, will ya? Gandhi and MLK and Franklin and Douglass weren't just righteous... they were tacticians! They built coalitions.
== Making at least one house democratic ==
Want the simplest and best and easiest U.S. congressional reforms that aren’t to be found in Polemical Judo?
1.) Repeal the 1929 Permanent Apportionment Act. It permanently set the maximum number of members in the House of Representatives at 435. Hence a lot of the distortions in proportional representation, since each state gets at least one representative.
2.) Then legalize a Wyoming Rule, where the number of representatives each state gets is proportional to the population of the least populous state (aka Wyoming with 578,803) which gets one representative. California (population 39,237,836) gets 68 representatives, an increase of 16 over its current 52. That increases the total number of representatives to 573.
3.) This would take just a majority law, needing no amendments.
4.) Then, more ambitiously, also make both the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico states (both have more population than Wyoming). DC would get one representative and Puerto Rico would get 6, further increasing House membership to 580.
A decent contractor can expand the hall of congress to seat the additional reps and provide them office space - or these reps can work remotely based on seniority (which is how they assign office space anyways). Have you seen how cramped the UK House of Commons is?
This would also reduce some (not all) of the obscene distortions to proportional representation in the electoral college.
This Washington Post article by constitutional scholar Danielle Allen - ‘The House was supposed to grow with population. It didn’t. Let’s fix that’ offers arguments for the same change that are less partisan, more mature and grownup. And those reasons should suffice! The author’s point? Historically this enlargement would actually be consistent with the framers’ original intent! Which was clearly stated in many places.
I am less calm and mature and perhaps more angry. The Confederacy has an inherent advantage in the Senate already. It should nt in the House, where every citizen's vote should have equal value.
Period.
215 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 215 of 215My father is angry at me.
I've been in California for the last month, helping my father recover from a serious illness, but now I have to return to the heartland for a few weeks, leaving my father under the loving care of my sister (his daughter) who dotes on him but treats him like a disobedient toddler, chastises him for regularly for misbehavior, tells him what to do, what to eat and when to sleep.
Now, imagine for the moment (if you can) that you are a 90 year old male, a legal adult, an independent individual, a paragon among men, in full command of your faculties, who is suddenly infantilized & forced to obey by other younger, less accomplished and (frankly speaking) stupider people.
You wouldn't like that, would you?
And, you wouldn't tolerate it, would you, unless you love that well-meaning tyrant beyond measure or else owe them a substantial debt of gratitude?
That's how I (and many others) feel about your attempts at Gun Control & other forms of 'loco parentis' prohibition.
We don't like it; we won't tolerate it; we don't owe you jack shit; and you haven't earned our love. So, bugger off & mind your own business.
Best
____
If I failed to paraphrase our fine host's position on gun control accurately, I apologize, and I would welcome it if he would honor us with clarification of what his position on gun control actually is.
Alfred... 'what a man does' is vital to the conflict! And liberals remain clueless. They cannot see how confronting MAGAs with WAGER demands utterly demolishes them and leaves them shriveled, shrieking as they flee. Because they know... and libs do not... that a real man would back up his blowhard hot air assertion spews with cash...
...and they can't.
Alan,
The first time I read about Ted Kaczynski, I was more than a little disturbed. I recognized the personality type as being too close to mine and a lot of my friends. My undergrad advisor had also abandoned his career to take up a primitive life in Oregon, though he did that in '83 so we knew he wasn't the same guy. We were ALL capable talkers and some were even persuasive.
Pappenheimer,
I like that variation on the big stick quote. The wonderful irony inherent within TR, of course, is that he understood the manly man character while also being a damn good talker.
After watching the Ken Burns series on the Roosevelts, I came around to the belief that TR was actually damn dangerous. He was the kind of personality our Founders expected would rise to power and be willing to use it. Instead of the fool we got with Trump, TR understood how to wield power and persuade us into thinking it was all our idea.
———
I find the notion that an armed society is a polite society laughable. Dark humor… but ludicrous. The people of such a society would have had to been through a trauma that taught them all how 'first strike success' doesn't imply survival. In the US, the only people who really get that are vets who have faced live fire. They know that killing one guy might save them a few seconds, but then all the other guys know where to shoot.
Armed people can team up… and usually do… if they know how to talk. 8)
On the flip-side, I'm not convinced that a disarmed society is any more polite. We find other ways to fight with each other when motivated.
Disarming ourselves is mostly about giving tempers a chance to cool enough that we tolerate each other and buy time to learn to trust our neighbors not to go for first strike. I'm convinced one of my neighbors won't kill me. The one on the other side of him likes his guns, though, so I'm not so sure a stray bullet won't get me.
Not sure what to say about locum's plaint.
Hm.
In a strictly logical sense, he is targeting a complaint at us that merits consideration. Not because it is valid. It remains insane. But it is about his outraged perception and his desperate need for a rationalization to hate us. And in that, it is actually worth noting.
They hate us nerds vastly harder than they will ever hate the plantation lords and would be kings who both tormented and ruled them in every prior phase of our civil war. WE nerds gave these ingrates everything and much is tolen from them by those oligarchs...
...but they hate us cause we know stuff. Cause this complex world empowers us. And above all because they can no longer twist our nipples as they did when they bullied us in Junior High.
Oh and also cause we steal the brighter half of their children, as we have every autumn for 100+ years, taking them to universities where they become smarty-pants nrds.
And so, they make up these loopy stories and the fact that they ARE loopy only enrages them more. knowing they dare not ever let any of their mad assertions be subjected to manly wagers, the way that anyone with actual balls would do.
David... I'm with you on that. I get why liberals don't want to do it, though. I don't think it's all about being clueless. Using wagers to fight the MAGA's that way is too much like behaving that way. I'm sure you've heard them say they won't stoop to it.
Thing is... there is a way to issue the wager demand without stooping to their level. The trick I use involves avoid emotions. I put the wager on the table like I would make an investment... meaning as emotionless as possible. That's probably NOT what you had in mind, but for me it keeps me in comfort zone without shrinking form possible conflict.
Thank you, Alfred. Duly noted re: silencers.
Re: cameras: Much more prevalent now than in 2002. However, the two (IMSM) sniped through a hole in the trunk of the car.
Re: apprehending them: Prior to the sniping, they had been killing people for 7 months- and these were two mentally-ill amateur killers. How long would it take to catch 100 carefully-trained snipers with well thought-out plans of attack, especially if as one were caught/killed, they were replaced by a new sniper? (Now we're talking more about a hostile state actor than a non-state actor.)
What if some of these snipers varied their attacks with some false-flag killings on extremist groups likely to respond violently? As an alternative: multiple assassinations of mid/low level officials, and members of the "thinking professions" that Dr. Brin mentions?
Conceivably, these could be done by domestic terrorists, though I suspect few if any have the organizational skills or backing to carry it out. Here we now get into bad novel/action movie territory: a cabal of nefarious US "olies" back various extremists groups to do the above, with the plan being that martial law will be declared and they'll be able to take over...
Dr Brin:
Not sure what to say about locum's plaint.
Well, since I bit...
He equates the humiliation of being forced to obey the terms set by a caretaker on which one is physically dependent with the "humiliation" of being forced to obey terms of society meant to protect us from each other.
In the first case, it's the daughter who is put upon, forced to act for the sake of another. I think being able to set the terms of that endeavor is only fair.
In the second, the rules aren't to nanny you for your own safety. It's to protect the rest of us from your belligerence.
The two situations are hardly comparable.
locumranch,
Yah. I've seen that a lot. I watched how my father and youngest sister interacted near the end of his life. There were certain medical choices he made with which she disagreed. He called her Agent Zero at some point because she was persistent and inclined to investigate.
In the end, he won out over her. On our last visit to his death bed, the doctor told us there was no way to save him. His heart attack had left him without oxygen too long, so only his body survived. We nodded (all four of us) and then the doctor pointed out that it was his third heart attack. My brother and I just nodded (we grew up to be much like him), but my sister was not so complacent. Didn't matter much by then, though. He was gone and we all agreed to pull the plug.
I've never met a mature adult that doesn't get upset when their health degenerates to the point that they become dependent on their children. It's worse when we have to conserve them. That really doesn't have much to do with being a manly man, though. It has everything to do with being a f$!#ing adult and we fight losing that status. I've never met a healthy adult who didn't.
———
My next round in this conflict will involve my mother-in-law someday. Both my parents are gone. My wife's estranged father is gone. My MIL (living under my roof) is in her late 70's and facing slowly degraded mobility options. She can still drive, though, so I lend her my car to keep the peace.
Larry,
It's to protect the rest of us from your belligerence.
Most gun owners I know aren't belligerent and get annoyed when people think they are. They don't accept the proposition that owning a gun IS belligerent. Neither do I for the same reason I don't accept car ownership as equivalent to willful negligence leading to vehicular manslaughter. NOT owning a car can prevent me from ever being charged that way, but that's a different issue.
Keith,
There are two points that I'd like to make.
1. The sniper scenario you describe (whether state actors or amateurs) would provoke fear in many of us, but more of us will become angry. Fear will sell better on cable news, so you'd see a lot of coverage for it, but anger is what would drive actions that lead to the snipers being found and killed. AND… there'd be a LOT more anger than fear.
2. The sniper scenario you describe would likely get a lot of people killed, but what you won't see is the intelligence activity done by people in the protector caste that leads to these folks being found and killed. Intelligence capabilities don't get described in open channels, so your amateurs are at a strong disadvantage. They WILL be found. Your foreign state actors have a better chance of hiding if their tradecraft is any good, but that brings in the military intelligence assets which we talk even less about in open channels. It also brings in allies who slip us information with the understanding that we won't say from where it originated. Trust me… that happens even with nation-states not otherwise friendly to us. They have their own interests that drive them to rat out each other.
Sure… many would be killed on our soil in those scenarios. So… why hasn't that happened already? It's not like there aren't people out there in the world who would celebrate a lot of dead Americans. Oh wait… the 9/11 attack was kinda like that, right? They used airplanes instead of guns. Why haven't there been many more of them? Work backwards from the lack of visible evidence and ponder possible reasons for it.
Being a Torontonian, I watch/attend Munk debates. Two weeks ago, the resolution was "AI R&D poses an existential threat" - pro or con. Perhaps surprisingly, the con side won by a whisker.
https://munkdebates.com/debates/artificial-intelligence
Pro: Max Tegmark, Yoshua Bengio
Con: Yann LeCun, Melanie Mitchell
I would have gone to this one in person if OGH had been on the panel. The real question should not be about the risk, but about non-ostrich solutions.
That debate link may require membership, but they're always on YouTube as well:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=144uOfr4SYA
@Alfred. Thank you again for your cogent remarks.
Yes, more anger than fear- that could be the desired reaction, particularly if it's deliberately oriented toward particular groups. Widespread fear and anger make a dangerous national combination- particularly when deliberately stoked, and "we" know how much "better" to do that than they did 90 years ago in Germany.
Why hasn't it been done? My guess is that while simple in concept, it's hard in realization.
Going forward; there will be other, much less-dramatic and much longer-term ways of attacking a nation...
Okay okay. What a remarkable community...
no...
onward
onward
Post a Comment