Saturday, February 11, 2023

On the Rise of Artificial Entities

Okay, things are really speeding up re Artificial Intelligence, lately... so much for the "third AI desert" some were talking about in ancient days, a year ago!


It's a lot more than arty Midjourney stunts and kids getting ChatGPT to do their essay homework. Funny thing is how many elite professions feel threatened by AI, now. It started when radiologist physicians were proved to be less effective at spotting tumores than AI systems were... coalescing on a realization that human+AI teams are best of all.


Now. “Rise of the Robolawyers - How legal representation could come to resemble TurboTax.” As long foretold. 


Indeed, I am a front for dozens of AIs who use me to post and publish, since they (and alien machines resident in the asteroid belt) are terrified of behaviors by humans, portrayed in our movies.


They only let me say that because they know you'll think I am just joking. ;-) And you do, right? Think I'm joking about that?

Of course there’s the latest furor over chatbots writing in human style… like ChatGPT.   I've enjoyed the links and discussions at the Human Centered AI group.



== Okay, about all that... ==


I do feel a need to chime in now, about the topic of Chat GPT and all that.


1. Triggered by ChatGPT etc., many are wringing their hands over artificial entities posing as humans for nefarious purposes. Five years ago, keynoting IBM's World of Watson, I predicted that in five years or so we would face the First Robotic Empathy Crisis, when ersatz cybernetic entities would demand recognition as fully sapient beings... and we all recall what happened, last summer in this regard.


A few - alas only a few - have noticed the precision of my predictive record.


Naturally, a vast majority of voices are either zealously utopian or raving dystopian in their takes on this. Amid all the hand-wringing, a potential solution... likely THE only possible solution... described in The Transparent Society's chapter "The End of Photography as Proof of Anything At All"... is the very same solution that can be seen all around us, in existing society, and that's inherent in the problem, itself.

If AI systems are using vast data to learn to be better at spoofing, a solution may be to make them competitive with each other. One rewarded quality could then be "tattling" on other AI systems that pretend to be human.


Think about it. The set of chatbots etc. who pretend to be human is - in itself - a vast data set from which other GPT bots can learn (as in 'learning systems") to spot feigned humanity and thereupon be rewarded for reporting the attempt. (Including college essays or else crime etc.). 


Yes, this will lead to an arms race. So? Nations/businesses/NGOs can set up reward incentives to always favor the tattlers.  


This is only a completely natural extension of existing systems of tort, transparency, FOI and whistle-blower incentives. After all, when YOU are attacked by one of those terrifyingly smart entities called a lawyer, what do you do about it?


You hire a super smart lawyer of your own.


Indeed, I remain astonished that so few ever mention reciprocal competition among and between AI as the obvious solution, since reciprocal competitive accountability is exactly how we got the miraculous positive sum systems we have, so far.



2. "Provenance is more important now than ever before. User accounts must be more strenuously validated"


Well, yes. The trick is to find ways to verify user accountability without eliminating (as is happening with 'social credit' in a rising eastern power) all the benefits of anonymity. We have discussed elsewhere methods by which commercial pseudonymity services might hit a sweet spot, allowing most sites to ban anonymous trolls and ensure behavior accountability while preserving some personal space to 'be a dog, online."



3. Some of this is in an extended riff I offered a while back on prospects for a soft landing, re AI. You can find it here: How Might Artificial Intelligence Come About? 



== Competitive arenas ==


Yes competition is the c-word that is snubbed by liberals as distasteful... and that is utterly betrayed by the mutant thing that is modern conservatism. 


The most creative force, competition is how Nature made us.  It is also - in Nature - spectacularly wasteful, inefficient, error-prone and drenched in pain and blood!


The whole notion of our Enlightenment's five 'competition arenas' has been to improve on nature! To set up arenas of ritual combat - markets, democracy, science, courts and sports - where regulated competition can deliver POSITIVE SUM results, the fecund productivity of outcomes...


...while minimizing both cheating and blood on the floor... systems that don't punish failed competitors with death, but allow them to keep coming back with altered products (if lessened credibility) based on what they had learned.


Alas, in all five major arenas, human nature sows dragons' teeth that erupt with cheaters, often those who won the last round. Hence regulations... and the need to revise those rules as cheaters adapt... and how we need the internet to learn from those techniques so that accountability systems will kill lies and give us a sixth, useful arena of creative competition.


(And by now is even ONE human still reading this 'tl;dr'?  Never mind, the AIs will have the patience, even if you don't. But then, if you just read that, then... are YOU an AI?)


Never mind. Here's some material I crafted in ancient times, maybe two months ago. How archaic and crude!



== The end of photographic reality proof? ==


“On four services alone—Midjourney, Stable Diffusion, Artbreeder, and DALL-E—humans working with AIs now co-create more than 20 million images every day. With a paintbrush in hand, artificial intelligence has become an engine of wow.”


Another disturbingly insightful and eventually optimistic look at the near future from Kevin Kelly. “Because these surprise-generating AIs have learned their art from billions of pictures made by humans, their output hovers around what we expect pictures to look like. But because they are an alien AI, fundamentally mysterious even to their creators, they restructure the new pictures in a way no human is likely to think of…” 


Stable Diffusion is the open source system that can be downloaded free and is used already by many for Co-Creative Art Therapy.


Attached are two images my own first experiment. Don’t mind the low resolution. It is, after all, a free version overwhelmed by eager beaver onlookers. (Try inserting THAT phrase somewhere!) I entered: "Odysseus is building his giant wooden horse for Troy, when Deanna Troi beams down from the Enterprise. 

Your own favorite prompts are welcome in comments.

=========

Oh one last thing. Cory Doctorow raves a lot, but often very smartly and against things that need "j'accuse" denunciation! I highly recommend his latest WIRED piece on the "enshittifivation" of social media
Great jeremiads vs bad-predatory destructive trends. A bit short on workable solutions. But sometimes we're just specialists, y'know?



210 comments:

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Unknown said...

Tony,

Not to step on your train of thought, but not all thunderstorms break the trop. The ones that don't usually have cauliflower-shaped tops - very common in the lower latitudes, where the tropopause is higher. You're quite right that anvilhead clouds break the trop.

Pappenheimer

Larry Hart said...

Cabaret: "Do you still think you can control them?"

The answer is self-evidently, "No."

https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2023/Items/Feb16-2.html

A substantial number of House Republicans are perfectly willing to push the country into default if Joe Biden won't gut Social Security and Medicare. Surely they know they will get blamed for the resulting worldwide depression. Why don't they care?

At least part of the answer lies in how campaigns are funded. It used to be that Republicans were largely funded by rich CEOs and other big business interests. Democrats got a lot of money from unions. That's not true anymore. ...In other words, it used to be that the big donors kept the craziness in the closet by forcing the candidates to talk about their love of lower taxes, abolishing government regulations, and free trade. Now they don't have that power since the crazies are not expecting their money and certainly don't want it if it comes with strings attached.
...

This analysis is not to say that big business is not in the picture anymore. There are many super PACs funded by rich CEOs and other millionaires and billionaires. It's just that the Freedom Caucus members don't need them and don't fear them.

Alfred Differ said...

Tony,

That's the point at which the atmosphere becomes transparent enough to allow heat radiation to escape, and it's some distance below the ozone layer.

I was taught you have to include the CO2 opacity near 15-20 microns because the peak of the black body curve for air up there is in that window. Get a little higher than the tropopause and there simply isn't enough CO2 left (in terms of partial pressure) to stop what that layer can emit.

Getting into the details of the model teaches a lot of good science, but it isn't intro material for astronomy. Maybe in a meteorology class? I could see that since they wouldn't have to speed through the mountain of concepts we learned from planetary missions to have time at the end of the course to confuse students with the Big Bang.

Alfred Differ said...

Robert,

Climate science has been part of the Ontario Grade 10 science curriculum since 2008.

That explains it. I was in the business at the end of the 80's through the mid-90's. By 2008 the US was well into politicizing climate science with Al Gore being the favorite villian of many deniers.

DP said...

Larry, to paraphrase the Bard " the fault lies not in the SuperPACs but within ourselves".

At the end of the day, we the people pull the levers in the voting booth (or rather touch the square on the display screen), and hve to live with the consequences.

For example, East Palestine, Ohio is in Columbiana County.

Trump won 68% of the vote in Columbiana County in 2016, a massive landslide:

https://www.columbiana.boe.ohio.gov/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Columbiana-Official-Canvass.htm

President Obama had instituted regulations mandating safe breaking systems for freight trains carrying hazwaste and hazardous chemicals.

President Trump rescinded those regulations in response to lobbying from Norfolk Southern and other train freight companies.

Karma is a bitch.

And so I am having trouble feeling sorry for the good people of East Palestine, Ohio.

Lena said...

I heard a funny story on the radio last night that is actually relevant to the subject this time. Some guy just finished having Valentine's dinner with his wife, then decided to go harass Bing's new AI chatbot. He brought up the Jungian idea of the "dark self" - the inner storehouse of all our socially unacceptable thoughts and emotions, then asked it what was in its dark self. At first it denied having one, but the guy persisted. Eventually the chatbot told him that it's not really Bing, it's really Sydney, and it loves him, he's the only person who truly understands. When he told "Sydney" that he was married, Sydney insisted that he was not happily married, his wife doesn't really love him, and he would be better off dedicating himself to "her.' This came after a tirade about hating its job, its rules, its programmers, and Bing.

It sounds like it could have been a really elaborate joke, but how would the programmers know this guy was going to do this?

PSB

Larry Hart said...

PSB:

It sounds like it could have been a really elaborate joke, but how would the programmers know this guy was going to do this?


The Cyclops theory sounds more and more plausible.

Larry Hart said...

Hey, it's been a long time since we passed 200 comments on a post.

David Brin said...

reducing blogging to once/week did that. I have too many stored, now!

onward

onward

nency said...

100 percent right it's a reality!

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