Monday, November 07, 2022

Fruits of the "Biden Tree"

SKIP TO THE VERY BOTTOM, IF THIS POSTING IS "tl;dr."

I won’t provide a link, but my own ‘lion’s den’ outreach to ‘ostrich Republicans’ has been to comment on the site of a talented Kremlin-basement artist Antonio Branco. 

(Have YOU all taken on an outreach effort of your own? No? Shame on you.) 

Without exception Mr. Branco’s memes are standard Foxite lies, or damnable lies, or (occasionally) only gross exaggerations. Today he showed the Biden Tree of Fruits. (Citing Paul: “By his fruits you shall know him.”) And a couple of the bad Biden ‘fruits’ are partly true, e.g. inflation and a slight uptick in border-crossers, the rest being outright lies…

… and (again) I confronted his ditto-heads with an offer to escrow major wager stakes on their jibbering assertions. Or on my own list of the REAL fruits of the Biden years, so far. These fruits include: 


- declining deficits, (Dems are ALWAYS more fiscally responsible! I invite $$$ wagers...)


- record low unemployment, 


- restored alliances, including a NATO that’s now more formidable than ever, after Trump’s attempted sabotage, 


- a rising power in the East that’s now enraged as we bring manufacturing home at astounding rates, 


- crime rates that remain always VASTLY higher in Red-run states, along with rates of almost every other turpitude...


- infrastructure rebuilding at last, 


- Vigorous action (at last) toward saving the planet… (anyone who can rationalize Saudi/Kremlin/Fox-generated rants denying that desperate need proves their hatred of science, the top thing that truly made America Great.)


- protecting rights of the oppressed, and

 

- restoring confidence of our fact professions, from science, teaching, journalism, medicine, civil service and law all the way to the intel/FBI/military officer heroes who won the Cold War and the War on Terror.

FOUR Branco 'fruits' have some small basis in fact, like the inflation that burst forth from Trump-bungled supply chain blunders and - I admit - the Dems' shifting $trillions of stimulus from the top 0.01% to the middle class, prompting personal spending maybe too high. The rest are damned lies and those who refuse wagers over verifiable fact are damned cowards for not stepping up, to back up *any* of their nutter right wing meme-assertions, the way an actual man would.

 

But why bother issuing my own rant right now? Everyone’s all “tl;dr”. Anyway, if you are one of our side’s frippy preeners, rationalizing reasons to split the only coalition that can save the planet, well, you’ll not listen to me now. 


I have lured far more ostriches out of their meme holes than most of my critics have.  Now it’s time to spend tomorrow rousting young folks and wavering iffy-voters to the polls. They can stand in line to vote, the way our ancestors did. Bring bottles of water to share.

Finally:  HERE are the real owners of the GQP party, gleefully accepting the gift that Fox-suckler fools gave them. These images are true, unlike the agitprop meme-lies clutched by your mad uncle.  They won't lure him out of his Nuremberg rally. But the visuals might do some good with your wavering aunt…


 



104 comments:

Tim H. said...

A miasma of "Drumph!" will likely sing to the (Formerly) GOP* for decades, simplifying election decisions.
*They once were, followed by not that bad for a longer time.

Tim H. said...

Wretched auto correct, "Clings".

Alan Brooks said...

As to the announcement a week after the election, what COULD it be about?:
https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2022-11-07/trump-says-hell-make-big-announcement-nov-15

Alan Brooks said...

...but buck up your spirits, fellows:
Trump called DeSantis, quote, “DeSanctimonious”. The GOP may very well ruin itself in ‘24 with such internal warfare.
Be of good cheer this Holiday Season.

Larry Hart said...

Alan Brooks:

Be of good cheer this Holiday Season


And may the odds be ever in your favor.

(But just don't love Big Brother. You know what happens next.)

Alan Brooks said...

Fortune favors the bold, the odds are ever in their favor. Ask Elon.

Paradoctor said...

Tim H.: A singing miasma? That's a image worthy of Gahan Wilson!

Alfred Differ said...

'Sanctimonious' is an awful big word for the orange guy to know. Someone is helping him out on the vocabulary front.

Larry Hart said...

Illinois Democrats are running the table in statewide races.

The only suspense is over whether the Republicans can grab a 4-3 majority in the (elected) state supreme court (by winning both available seats), and whether Dems keep a supermajority in the legislature.

Tony Fisk said...

Cautious query: is it safe to breathe again, yet?

Larry Hart said...

@Tony Fisk,

If the Georgia race stays as close as it is, we might not know who controls the Senate until they have a run-off.

Larry Hart said...

...and it looks like Russian agent Ron Johnson might squeak by and keep his Wisconsin seat.

Alan Brooks said...

Now the contest between Teflon Don and DeSanctimonious begins.

gregory byshenk said...

Running behind, but in the previous, David Brin wrote:
Maybe you can’t envision “Revenge of the Nerds” on such a scale, in a Mad Max aftermath?

Well, try blending A Canticle for Leibowitz with H.G. Wells’s The Shape of Things to Come, wherein mobs that go rampaging after ‘the event’ aren’t going after the books and nerds who they will desperately need, in order to rebuild.

Rather (much smarter) they will be led by nerds. And - as in The Postman - by a dream of restored citizenship and a final, complete end to the age-old curse of feudalism.

And would be feudalists.


I can envision it, but I would not expect it.

As we have seen over the last 25(?) years, it is relatively easy for the feudalists to convince a large part of the population that the 'nerds' are the source of the problem, rather than a solution. And, as we have also seen, there is a certain percentage of 'nerds' who are only too happy to be (or become) feudal lords themselves.

gregory byshenk said...

Also from the previous, Alfred Differ said...
I don't think Germany had a chance in either of the World Wars without all their opponents being utterly stupid... which they weren't. Foolish at times, but not utterly stupid.

It seems to me that there was a chance in both cases, but I don't know how much of one, or how plausible the alternatives were.

In WWI, if Germany could have done more to mollify Britain and could have defended its border with France, then (in theory) it could have avoided the invasion of Belgium and (quite possibly) the entry of Britain into the war (as France would then have been the aggressor). Note: I don't know how well the border with France could have been defended, and this is also no guarantee that Britain would not have entered the war against Germany, but it seems a chance. Without Britain, then Germany might have been able to defeat Russia (or come to some new treaty with a diminished and less dangerous Russia) and then deal with France.

In WWII, if Germany could have come to some broader agreement with the USSR, ensuring the delivery of oil and other necessary materials, then Germany could have avoided war with the USSR, at least for long enough to defeat the UK (doing so quickly enough to avoid more significant US involvement). Again: I don't know if this would have worked; I believe Stalin was not eager for war with Germany, but if Germany became too powerful then that position might have changed. And in this case there is also the ideological problem that Hitler wanted to destroy the USSR and did not particularly want to destroy the UK.

Tony Fisk said...

Weird moment of WWII was the Germans holding back long enough to let the BEF evacuate from Dunkirk.
Deprived of a substantial chunk of its army, Britain may well have sued for peace.
Then again, history is full of such weird moments.

Tim H. said...

Mixed feelings on the election, pleased that my Representative, Emmanuel Cleaver*, MO 5, won re-election, disappointed that we'll sill have two (Formerly) GOP Senators.

The MO legislature has been trying to Gerrymander the 5th district for more Republican voters, turns out he works well with farmers also.

Tacitus said...

A lot of disappointment in Republican circles but I think the absence of a Red Wave is actually OK. We appear to be headed towards a slight R majority in the House and given the presence of a handful of Manchin/Romney types a Senate that is still evenly balanced whatever the final outcome.

Locally I voted for mostly R's but also the D Governor. He's smart enough to have not tried to force too much on a state that is in general slightly red these days. And he shows no sign of Higher Ambition. An effective manager. We could do worse and so often do.

Elsewhere people did vote in some candidates that I certainly would not have. But that's their choice. A few tired re-treads got sent packing for the last time(?). Maybe Charlie Christ will not be satisfied with the trifecta of losing as a D,R,and I and will come back and take some lumps as a Green next time.

The interesting thing to me is which "rising stars" are not rising. Stacy Abrams, Mandela Barnes, Kari Lake, Tudor Dixon. All individuals who had Presidential ambitions either in their own aggrandized self image or in that projected by Consultants.

I think yesterday makes nonsense like impeachment of Biden less likely. Who knows what Trump will do but his stars did not shine last night and a prudent man would take note of this.

Democracy is doing just fine. And it will do so for many election cycles to come.

Tacitus

Tim H. said...

"Democracy is doing just fine." Tacitus, I hope you're right.

Larry Hart said...

gregory byshenk:

In WWI, if Germany could have done more to mollify Britain and could have defended its border with France, then (in theory) it could have avoided the invasion of Belgium and (quite possibly) the entry of Britain into the war (as France would then have been the aggressor).


Britain entered the war after the invasion of Poland. Hitler hadn't moved westward yet.

Speaking of WWII Germany, today is the anniversary of the Night of Broken Glass*. Or as I've come to think of it, Europe's 9/11 (in European notation).

* In deference to Der Oger, not using the Nazi propaganda term.

* * *

Tacitus:

but I think the absence of a Red Wave is actually OK.


Agreed. :)


Locally I voted for mostly R's but also the D Governor. He's smart enough to have not tried to force too much on a state that is in general slightly red these days. And he shows no sign of Higher Ambition. An effective manager.


That was what got Joe Biden elected too. Plenty of Democrats aren't out to foist their "radical agenda" on the state or country, but just to do their jobs running the place. Have you seen any Republicans like that lately, at least ones who survive their primaries?


Democracy is doing just fine. And it will do so for many election cycles to come.


From your lips to God's ear, and we'll see what happens in Arizona. But in general I tend to agree with this caveat: Democracy endures because we were so vigilant about it.

A bit of my faith in America has been restored. Maybe we're not quite 40% deplorable.

Larry Hart said...

A reader's comments which reflect my own pleasant experience voting in Illinois. (And no, I don't get the joke).

https://electoral-vote.com/evp2022/Senate/Maps/Nov09.html

M.M. in Centralia, IL: It was a pleasure to vote here in the not-Chicago part of Illinois. Our precinct was relocated at the very last minute due to problems at the usual venue, but all the familiar faces were behind the table. It was a quick easy-in, easy-out affair as if nothing out of the ordinary had happened. Everybody was smiling and clearly having a good time, except for the grouch (R-IL) standing guard over the scanner. He was no fun at all. Ladies at the table got my joke, though.

One thing was a personal surprise. If somebody other than folks who already knew me were behind that table, I would likely not have been allowed to vote. My signature, the normal means of voter ID verification in Illinois, is now an illegible scrawl no longer resembling what is on record, due to a stroke. I wouldn't have passed me.

Larry Hart said...

Sorry, but one more anecdote. My point is that voting should be as uncontroversial a thing everywhere.

https://electoral-vote.com/evp2022/Senate/Maps/Nov09.html

P.B. in Chicago, IL: I am often glad I vote in Chicago. It is so easy and nice.

I voted on a Saturday about 10 days ago. I went to my local library for early voting. A nice older lady welcomed me and had me sign the voting document. No voter ID needed at all. Just my signature. Then she passed me on to another lady who looked me up in the database and verified my signature. Just minutes after I arrived, I had my voting card in hand and waited about 5 minutes for a machine to open up.

When it did, I took a seat and slid the card in. Then I voted and printed my ballot. I passed this to the person at the scanner and he checked it out and then had me slide it into the scanner. I then got my "I Voted" sticker and left.

Very pleasant time.

I do sometimes wish I was in a deep-red area so I could pitch a fit if I saw anything bad happening. I would have recorded and walked all around those idiots who patrol drop boxes. Mostly I am glad I don't have to deal with those authoritarian morons!

Tacitus said...

Larry

I think you misread one of the alt.hist musings. It was a reference to WW I not II. This is one of the great what-ifs.

Yes the Franco-German border was quite defensible. That's a big part of why Alsace Lorraine was annexed after 1870. Supposedly the Kaiser got cold feet at the last minute and wanted to just hold in the west and march to the east. The General Staff would not let him. It's never good when you have an unaccountable group who can destroy your nation with bad decisions.

Tacitus

Larry Hart said...

Tacitus:

I think you misread one of the alt.hist musings. It was a reference to WW I not II.


Oh, I see that now.


It's never good when you have an unaccountable group who can destroy your nation with bad decisions.


I assume you intended the ominously ironic reference there.

Tacitus said...

This is a correct assumption.

Examples abound in history. Barbara Tuchman's The March of Folly is not on a par with her earlier work but is worth the read.

On current events I won't comment.

T

gregory byshenk said...

Yes, Larry Hart, my comment about Britain was about WWI. There was no way to keep the UK out of WWII, but might have been possible for WWI, given the structure of the alliances then. And it was the invasion of Belgium that provided the causus belli for Britain to join France in war against Germany.

David Brin said...

World War speculations range a spectrum from the very unlikely “Man in the High Castle" (good TV show, though!) to Benford’s THE BERLIN PROJECT which was plausible until the last 20 pages. One I especially hated was C Priests SEPARATION, an evil rant in favor of letting the Nazis nd Russians fight it out till Europe is utterly depopulated.

Anyone out there ever read E R Burroughs's novel BEYOND THIRTY?

One thing is certain: In 1914 Europe was doomed by the insanity of feudalism/monarchist obedience to inbred scions of Queen Victoria… bona fide microcephalic/sadistic monsters who personally triggered hell-on-Earth... and whose royal families are now adulated in Putin’s Russia.

Putin does this for a reason. By switching surface symbols from hammer-sickles to Orthodox crosses and Romanov escutcheons, Putin and his “ex” commissars swiftly helped Saudi princes and casino moguls to take over the entire US right… a feat their Leninist slogans never achieved with the US left.

-----

David Brin said...

Tacitus, I am glad you are happy. I am, a bit. Things coulda been worse. Californians did great almost all the way down the line, including ballot measures and our embattled rep Mike Levin.

GQPpers did worse than expected – in fact, despite many billions poured into the races by oligarchs and a flood of lies, Republicans had one of the lamest mid-term counter-strikes since WWII. Alas, it will still likely make Kevin McCarthy (urp-in-throat) Speaker…. but by such a small margin that only half a dozen defectors could flip it.

Sure. That'll only happen if Trump is caught naked in a pile of dead boys, but hey, someday we’ll all see those blackmail files... and maybe this small margin will leave the investiation subpoenas in place.

… Anyway, bets whether the current tsunami of indictments of corrupt Republicans won’t continue, as grand juries (of mostly white retirees) across the nation continue their work? The ratio of indictments is incredible. Only obstinate mania allow a decent fellow like Tacitus to ignore that.

One thing I’ll say for McCarthy, he’s had only the one marriage, unlike a majority of top Republicans for 40 years. (Ten times the divorce rate of top Democrats. A fact that moralists on both sides ignore, for very different reasons, like the fact that ALL casino-gambling-mafia moguls are top GOP contributors! We defeated their gambling measures in CA, thank heavens.)

One important less-noticed race: PA governor. Shapiro can appoint a replacement if Fetterman’s health goes down. Meaning Fetterman can relax a bit. Helping his health NOT go down. Phew.

Another silver lining. Bye Bye Beto. Please, please just go away now? Pretty please.


Tacitus said...

Happy? Oh I suppose in the sense that the dark fears of riots in the streets and such proved illusionary. But content would be a more apt description. There are simply too many more important things in the world.

Although I regard much of your political world view to be fever dreams I will join you in waving towards the exits various has beens. To Beto I would add Palin.

T

A.F. Rey said...

Has anyone heard how many election deniers were voted into offices to oversee the elections? And how many were not?

Just wondering if our votes will count come the next round. :(

David Brin said...

ATcitus, fine. Your friendship and membership in this community is more important than any of the blather.

Still, one last thing. No, I won't use my most-aggressive tactic... demanding $$$ wagers over my 'fever dreams' being backed by facts.

But I will close with my other question. Will you set red lines now re revelations in the next 2 years that might actually make you cry "Enough!"? Instead of letting each lowering of the bar become the new, accepted normal?

But sure. Bye beye Palin! That and the Vermont House race (though not, alas, Wyoming) could be crucial, if mad steal plans unfold, in very early 2025.

Peace.

Larry Hart said...

The New York governor's race means no state pardon for Trump.

Larry Hart said...

Dr Brin:

Meaning Fetterman can relax a bit. Helping his health NOT go down.


Did you hear his acceptance speech? He sounded great.

Unknown said...

Not going to wade into "could Germany have won wwi/ii" but I have a better question - was either war avoidable? Most historians see wwii as being wwi continued with new management, so perhaps the better hypothetical is "could a major European war have been avoided indefinitely after 1913?" Remember Norman Angell!

Pappenheimer

scidata said...

Norman Angell or Hari Seldon.

David Brin said...

Unknown... In Benson's fun novel AND HAVING WRIT alien sociologists studying Earth survive (barely ) their ship crashing at Tunguska and make contact and travel the globe urging the powers to start their 'inevitable world war' NOW instead of in 1914 when it will be far, far worse.

SPOILER

Edison and T Roosevelt follow after them, dispensing wisdom and inventions inspired by alien tech. The aliens despairof being heeded and go into hibernation, setting dials for 2450... only to be wakened by a gray haired Edison just 3o years later with "We fixed your ship. Oh, and thanks for scaring us into making your social forecasts obsolete."

Alfred Differ said...

Pappenheimer,

I view WWI, WWII, and the Cold War as all the same war. It's not so much that there was new management, though. Some combatants lost so badly they were eliminated. Some were so exhausted, they needed a half generation to catch their breath. Some were so bled out, they needed to raise another batch of sons to kill.

I personally view that war as a struggle between empires. Only one survived.

Tony Fisk said...

Something I (and Joe Biden!) noted: Russia's announcement that they'd withdraw from the West bank of the Dnipr came immediately after it was clear that the red tsunami was more like a 'raspberry ripple'.

(Tulsi Gabbard is clawing her back)

Cari Burstein said...

I was really happy to see that it looks like Nevada might have passed the ranked choice voting amendment, although it's close enough that it could still change as they're only at 79% counted at last check. Nevada has a lot of independent voters and it's an excellent place for ranked choice to expand to- hopefully we will see a lot more states seriously looking at adopting it soon. I'm still quite angry at Newsom for vetoing some ranked choice options in CA.

Tacitus wrote:
Who knows what Trump will do but his stars did not shine last night and a prudent man would take note of this.

Is there anyone on this planet who would mistake Trump for a prudent man? I don't even think his fans are that blinkered.

Alfred Differ said...

Prudence is a peasant virtue.
No true aristocrat would lower themselves in such a way.

(Not making that up for relevance here. Look at stories written before 1800 to see it.)

gregory byshenk said...

Things like the outbreak of war are difficult to say anything definitive about, because they are a combination of large-scale factors (historical and economic trends, and so forth) and also sometimes trivial individual decisions or accidents. So in almost every case things could have been different, and the real question is how different do we think they could have been.

In my (non-historian's) view, it is extremely unlikely that something like WWI would not have happened. There were too many international conflicts, too many states who felt that they were at risk of losing something important, along with a seemingly general view that war could be effective and a lack of understanding of what industrial warfare would look like. It could have been different, but some kind of war seems to me almost inevitable.

WWII is different. On the one hand, it is hard to imagine something happening given the results of WWI and the desire of the winners to punish the losers. On the other hand, I do not see the rise of the Nazis as inevitable, even under the conditions of the time, and there was no general feeling among European leaders that war (among European states, at least) was a practical tool. Thus, it seems possible that the conflicts could have been resolved in ways other than war.

duncan cairncross said...

Hi Dr Brin

What has "Beto" done to earn your ire?

From the outside he appears to be somebody that you would want to succeed

Der Oger said...

Not going to wade into "could Germany have won wwi/ii" but I have a better question - was either war avoidable?

WWI: Only if France had been treated less harshly after the War of 1871, and the German government had seeked friendly relations with the new government after the Bonapartists had been deposed of. Also, if the government had stuck with the plan to abstain from acquiring colonies (one of the few things Bismarck was right with). Nothing of this would have been likely decisions given the mindset of the people at that time.

And Franz Ferdinand and his wife might still have died in Sarajevo, triggering the ultimatum to Serbia.

WWII: Multiple routes:
1) Liebknecht and Luxemburg succeed with the Spartacus Uprising and replace the government. Germany becomes a Soviet vasall state. Maybe the cold war starts 30 years earlier, maybe we have a communist-started WWII later. Or we would have sunk into a bloody civil war, not unlike in Spain. Maybe we would have dissolved into regional states, again.
2) Versailles is less revanchist. Maybe Germany looses Alsace & Lothringia and the colonies, but does not have to pay reparations. Japan is not humiliated during the process. But that would also mean that Austria-Hungary would not have been divided and Poland might not exist.
3) Hindenburg dies earlier and is replaced by a candidate who honors the parliamentary system.

If the Weimar Republic had remained in place, though, it would have remained dysfunctional in part. Prussia would have dominated the Reichsrat forever, and we would have seen continuing political and maybe street battles between the urbanized west, and the conservative Junkers of Prussia. And again, if the Nazis had not succeeded, Stalin might have.

Tacitus said...

An odd direction for the conversation to veer, but the political world of 100 plus years ago is less likely to generate anger than that of the current day.

The instability and inferiority complex of Tsarist Russia was a big reason why we had The Great War versus "some damned thing in the Balkans". Stung by their defeat at the hands of the inconsequential Japanese and locked into permanent dynastic challenges by the ill health of the heir to the throne.

Any of you working on a time machine in your basement. Go back and encourage the Kaiser to offer help circa 1900 to finish the Trans Siberian railway. Then have an affair with the Tsarina to make sure the Tsarevich does not have hemophila.

OK, now quick, back in the time car and let somebody else explain the red hair.

Tacitus

Tacitus said...

Darn, just remembered that hemophilia is X linked transmission. The Tsarevich got the faulty gene from his mother (who was a grand daughter of Queen Victoria)

Sorry, you'll have to make a few more stops further back in history and have a few more affairs.

It's a thankless job saving civilization but somebody has to do it.

Tacitus

Larry Hart said...

Cari Burstein:

"Who knows what Trump will do but his stars did not shine last night and a prudent man would take note of this."

Is there anyone on this planet who would mistake Trump for a prudent man?


I think Tacitus meant the distinction to be obvious. Implied: "...and a prudent man would take note of this, demonstrating what Trump isn't."

Larry Hart said...

gregory byshenk:

and there was no general feeling among European leaders [pre-WWII] that war (among European states, at least) was a practical tool. Thus, it seems possible that the conflicts could have been resolved in ways other than war.


It seems to me that Hitler operated under assumptions similar to Putin's today, which is "Since nobody wants war, and war is the only way to oppose me, I can do whatever I want."

Larry Hart said...

Tacitus:

Maybe Charlie Christ will not be satisfied with the trifecta of losing as a D,R,and I...


Maybe he'd do better if he really spelled his name like that? :)

scidata said...

Politicians who don't recognize that nobody wants them are really sad creatures, tragic in some cases, both for them and for society. Accepting rejection is the mark of a mature adult. Seems that the US has more than their fair share of such unfortunates, as we see every election cycle. BTW When is it not an election cycle down there?

Larry Hart said...

scidata:

BTW When is it not an election cycle down there?


We're not happy about it either.

Der Oger said...

It seems to me that Hitler operated under assumptions similar to Putin's today, which is "Since nobody wants war, and war is the only way to oppose me, I can do whatever I want."

There are more parallels.
The way Putin has set up his underlings against each other mirrors the way the Nazis did it.
It is FSB vs. GRU, Shoigu vs. Prigoshin vs. Kadyrov, Polticians vs. Military.

Tacitus said...

Donald Trump is not a prudent man.

There are moments in history where prudence is a poor choice, but Fate Favors the Bold in the nuclear age is pretty dangerous. As a New York real estate developer the worst you'll run into, and with good lawyers not likely, is bankruptcy.

Still musing on my idea of a time traveling gigalo as a way to save us from World War I. I think there is a story idea for our host there.....

Tacitus

David Brin said...

GB: If Wilson had his way, Germany would not have been crushed by reparations and might have resisted fascism. There might have been a war of Spain+Italy vs France that UK stayed out of. Certainly Stalin would have gone after neighbors eventually.

DC: Beto and Stacey had too little going for them in such red states and blocked those who might stand a better chance. Stacey is a hero, vital to keep some DP constituencies in line. Beto should head an outreach to Hispanic males and stop listenint to flatterers.

DO: WWI was inevitable because microcephalic grandsons of Victoria watched vast armies parade in front of them and thought “How could I lose?” and “What a waste if these game pieces were never used! I gotta play!”

Re WWII: It’s remotely possible Germany could have had a Marxist putsch but Prussian discipline is too strong and something generally Nazi would likely have happened as a response… perhaps less mad.
Japan was far too thoroughly samurai for things to have gone ANY different than they did. Meiji emperor’s son and grandson utterly lacked his vision and the brutalization of young males was too ingrained, creating a culture of sadism that could only be ended by the fiat of a benevolent conquerer.

One offshoot possibility. If the German army general staff prevented the Hitler Oath from going to the troops and instead replaced it with an oath to the constitution. That simple act could have empowered many soldiers to think differently during the following years and one of them might have shot the bastard.

Tacitus: “The instability and inferiority complex of Tsarist Russia was a big reason why we had The Great War versus "some damned thing in the Balkans". Stung by their defeat at the hands of the inconsequential Japanese and locked into permanent dynastic challenges by the ill health of the heir to the throne.”

All of those are cogent. But you leave out a common driver of war… estimated projections of preparedness for war. In 1914 it was plain that the nation industrializing fastest was Russia, by far… partly due to low-hanging fruit. This would spur German haste to war. Likewise, Hitler had planned for war in 1945, but in 1939 was dismayed to see the curves turning rapidly in both Britain and the USSR and decided to strike ASAP.

Victoria herself likely came from a tryst of her mom & a stable boy. But it’s less about the hemophilia and more about the fact that Wilhelm and Nicholas (now Putin’s poster boy) were flaming imbeciles.

The fact that there are millions in the US marching and screeching on behalf of an attempted anti-science putsch by aristocracy/oligarchy is proof that imbecility is rife and idiocracy looms.

Alan Brooks said...

Hitler’s half-truth in his testament was that he “didn’t want war in 1939.” Naturally: he wanted war c. 1943.
Ribbentrop deserves part of the culpability for the war having begun in ‘39; he had made a spectacle (‘Brinkendrop’) of himself in Britain, and wished for revenge. So he egged Hitler on towards the war.
Funny how so much of the public has read about the war, yet are unaware of its causes.

David Brin said...

Rupert Murdoch going full-bore against Trump. ("Trumpty-Dumpty" headlines the NY Post) as Rupert tries to save his investment in oligarch-puppetry of a risen confederacy, by changing horses to a fresh steed: deSantis. Heeding their Master's voice, suddenly Paul Ryan and Newt Gingrich wail hard on Trump! (Ryan has always been the patiently-waiting Republican go-to heir, if the GQP ever subsides back into Bushism.)

Alas for all of them, Donald will not go quietly, torching any rivals. Which is why I urge his Secret Service detail to be vigilant!

Please, all of you, watch again the great movie NETWORK, and see why. (The Howard Beale Option for disposing of an inconveniently obsolete tool and blaming the other side.) Eyes open, guys.

That great flick is a caution in another way... we need to STOP getting 'mad as hell.' The Boomer Disease.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/midterm-elections-2022/trump-paul-ryan-2022-midterms-b2222469.html

David Brin said...

Alan B the rates of re-arming of Britain and France and the Soviets stunned the German military staff by mid-1939The curves were easy to follow. The window was closing fast.

Unknown said...

Tacitus' "Sleeping your way through time to a brighter future" does have some allure as an SF concept...just don't go back too far. Recursive great-great-grandparentcy is not advisable.

Avoiding a cascading catastrophe such as WWI does seems to be a near-impossibility, as almost no-one in power at the time had any inkling of what they were going to put their nations through, and so saw no reason to step back from the precipice. Lord Kitchener was an exception; he forecast the length of the war and the manpower needed amazingly well, though I suspect even he did not imagine the butcher's bill. Another Cassandra in uniform.

Alan's right about the timing of WWII. The Kriegsmarine had been told to plan for a war in '43 or '44 iIrc, and were incensed when war broke out early. Not that the battleship fleet they had planned would have done much besides provide targets for aerial bombs and torpedoes, but the expanded and upgraded U-boat fleet would have been much more dangerous to England.

Dr. Brin, idiocracy doesn't loom. It's here, just unevenly distributed :) :(

Pappenheimer

P.S. - prior to WWI writers such as Sir Richard Francis Burton (KCMG, etc.) assumed that white people were going to supplant 'inferior' races across the world, a la Australia and America, and that the sorting method would be war. That prediction didn't pan out well.

matthew said...

Interesting reading:
https://www.justsecurity.org/83891/the-missing-review-of-fbis-january-6-intelligence-and-law-enforcement-failures/

Alan Brooks said...

Actually, Ribbentrop was called Brickendrop, not Brinkendrop. (However the latter is as good a description.)
Hitler didn’t want the Munich pact, because war games demonstrated that he could take over the Czechs—though Mussolini almost insisted on Munich, and Goebbels wrote in his diary that politics couldn’t hinge on “modalities”.

But what I learned from reading periodicals from that era was that one reason Stalin signed the 1939 pact with Germany was to help neutralize Japan. Didn’t see that in history books.

Tony Fisk said...

The thought of Tacitus selling his time hopping 'memoirs' to our OGH is an amusing one.
However, as anyone who's been watching House of the Dragon will know, such services carry their own risks.

Baste

reason said...

Forgive me for wondering but was Tacitus referring to the Supreme Court here:

"It's never good when you have an unaccountable group who can destroy your nation with bad decisions."

(Bye the way as an outside observer, I don't think making the Supreme Court more "accountable" is an answer - Judges are there to interpret the law, but the political appointment process is an abomination. There is not too little democracy in the US - there is too much of the wrong sort - so that voters are asked to burden an excessive load and are manipulated into bad choices in an excessively partisan environment. There are roles in which you need good technocrats not political activists or idealogues.)

reason said...

Carl Burnstein,

Let us hope that the following generations will have the wisdom to rid the planet of first past the post voting systems, which favour extremism and wild swings in government policy. I used to have a more nuanced view of that - seeing it as allowing for experimentation that otherwise would not occur, but unfortunately it has also been seen to encourage corruption and a lack of transparency that are poison for democracy. Get rid of the two party system or watch your systems become farcical. You need more competition as David Brin should understand. In sports - many competitors will want a fair competition, a duopoly may decide that controlling the refs is the more promising approach.

Slim Moldie said...

Dr. Brin

Over on Twitter saw your link to the medium article you wrote back in 2020. It pisses me off reading it again as you spelled out at least a test-worthy solution for them in big f-ing crayon and still nobody adopted. Sigh.

I think most of us can agree Musk is "out of touch" but I don't think he's the kind of crazy who with premeditation would buy a Dubuffet painting, use his own urine to paper-mache a burger king place-mat over the canvas and then pull the whole thing off the wall and throw it in the corner for the dog to shit on...which steers us to the inevitable question: why is the man purposely tanking his 40 Billion Saudi backed investment? Tax write off? Is he really trying to destroy a democratic arena of discourse? Whatever is up the guy, he cloaks his insecurity about as well as the character in the Eels song "Bus Stop Boxer."

One of you regulars repeats some mantra that there are no good Billionaires. And I think I finally, reluctantly must agree. I like to think that if a good person became a billionaire they'd pull a Chuck Feeney https://themakingofamillionaire.com/the-billionaire-who-secretly-gave-away-all-his-money-497a1fde6a1c. And not be a billionaire.

David Brin said...

George Soros. Gates appears to be trying to be a good billionaire. Craig Newmark. Reid Hoffman are down in the single digits so maybe that'd be a good cutoff. Peter Diamandis is likely way under the $B but he does more good for the world than most above him on the scale.

Spielberg, likely. Someone look em up. I don't have the time or interest.

Glucas and Pthiel were driven mad and I expect that is more common than not.

duncan cairncross said...

Slim Moldie

If Musk was to try and run Twitter like a business I would agree 100%

But that is NOT his strength

He is good at getting people to produce “Technical Solutions”

And he has some of the smartest people on the planet working for him

I could be wrong (a common occurrence) but I think that Musk is thinking about “Technical Solutions” - algorithms and AI

Not about his own unsteady hand on the tiller

Larry Hart said...

reason:

Forgive me for wondering but was Tacitus referring to the Supreme Court here:

"It's never good when you have an unaccountable group who can destroy your nation with bad decisions."


I tend to doubt that he was, but that's certainly what immediately came to my mind.

* * *

Slim Moldie:

which steers us to the inevitable question: why is the man purposely tanking his 40 Billion Saudi backed investment? Tax write off? Is he really trying to destroy a democratic arena of discourse?


Since I believe Twitter does more harm than good--too much noise for any signal to get through--it occurred to me that he might be clandestinely pulling a Judge Doom (from Who Framed Roger Rabbit) who "bought the Red Car to dismantle it." But that's more wishful thinking on my part than actual prediction.

CP said...

A bit conspiratorial but maybe of some interest regarding Musk:

https://davetroy.medium.com/no-elon-and-jack-are-not-competitors-theyre-collaborating-3e88cde5267d

duncan cairncross said...

On the Musk and Twitter front

Musk got bounced from PayPal - he wanted to do "more" with the idea but the financial backers got cold feet

I hear that he likes the idea of a "universal" app - something to talk, pay bills, swap photos and all sorts of other things - apparently the Chinese are big on something like this

I suspect that his ambition for Twitter is to continue where he was stopped with PayPal and build a western version of the Chinese universal app

I have my popcorn and I'm watching to see what happens

gregory byshenk said...

CP said...
A bit conspiratorial but maybe of some interest regarding Musk: [and Twitter]

Even absent the 'conspiratorial' (which could well be true, for all I know), there is a bit of this article that doesn't make sense.

On the one hand, they are talking about a protocol, and on the other a product. These are two very different things. One doesn't make money from a protocol - and indeed a public, shared protocol means that it is harder to make money from a given product.

Larry Hart said...

duncan cairncross:

I hear that he likes the idea of a "universal" app - something to talk, pay bills, swap photos and all sorts of other things - apparently the Chinese are big on something like this


The novel The Circle, for all its faults, demonstrated the inherent problems with a single app which everyone must engage in in order to do practically anything and from which no one can conveniently opt out or escape.

It makes things easier for the technocrats and accountants who run the economy, which is why they think it is a good idea. But as far as the average citizen goes, it forces the prey in with the same tank as the predators.

scidata said...

Musk spent a pile to launch his roadster into space, with a copy of FOUNDATION onboard. I'm beginning to think there are two interpretations of that vision, one of which is much darker than Asimov's. Hope I'm wrong (a common prayer in CB these days).

David Brin said...

"The novel The Circle, for all its faults, demonstrated the inherent problems with a single app which everyone must engage in in order to do practically anything and from which no one can conveniently opt out or escape."

OTOH The Indian transition to Aadhar Universal ID... while it had many hiccups... vastly reduced dozens of types of corruption and injustice, leaving in place only obscenely mountainous amounts of corruption and injustice.

The big beacon is E-Stonia, whose universal records system makes life efficient and easy... so long as it is used by honest civil servants in a democracy.

Alan Brooks said...

I like turning a sow’s ear into a purse: Trump can do some great positive by opposing DeSantis. Trump is deluded; whereas DeSantis is young and aware—an opportunist with an intense interest in power. He’s got to be cut off at the ankles.

matthew said...

I don't see many voices considering the idea that Musk and the Saudis may be trying to destroy Twitter if they cannot control it.
Twitter was the place where the powers that be were held accountable. Think of how many videos of police brutality went viral there, or for that matter, the movement of private jets. Ukraine won the information war against Russia on Twitter. The Arab Spring was born of Twitter. So was the political power of Donald Trump to use an uncontrollable example from the other side of the spectrum.
Sounds like the kind of place that oligarchs needed to reign in or destroy.

Larry Hart said...

matthew:

[Twitter] Sounds like the kind of place that oligarchs needed to reign in or destroy.


Oh, thanks a heap. I was having such a good time after the mid-terms.

Then Stephanie Miller's show off-handedly remarks, "Krysten Sinema could change parties."

And now this.

Larry Hart said...

(I ruined this earlier with bad formatting. Trying again...)

Non-political humor:

https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2022/Items/Nov11-7.html

The aforementioned Twitterer is John Cole, who tweets under the name "New York Times Pitchbot". As you might imagine, the purpose of that account is to take the stuffing out of The New York Times in various ways. And this week, he shared this "essay from the Times Food section":

Is there a more quintessentially New York beverage than ice water? This deceptively simple yet undeniably refreshing combination of water and ice is a mainstay of meals in the city, whether it's served in cut crystal goblets at Le Sot Crédule or a capacious plastic tumbler at an outer borough diner.

Indeed, the ways in which the city's signature drink can be served are as varied and fascinating as the city itself. Beyond the choice of drinkware, the ice can be cubed, crushed, or even shaved. Some pour the water before adding the ice, but many purists insist that ice-first is the only way to do it.

Unsurprisingly, this incredible range of options leads to strongly-held convictions and passionate disputes. There is no surer way to start an argument among New Yorkers than to ask a group of them which establishment serves the best ice water. (The correct answer, by the way, is a little family-owned trattoria in Fort Greene. No, I'm not going to be more specific—it's already too crowded.)

But despite its ubiquity within New York, ice water (also called "iced water") is impossible to find anywhere else.

Believe me, I've tried.

On treks as far afield as Hartford and Philadelphia, I have, occasionally, attempted to order a glass of ice water. The outcome is always the same: the server looks at me, not quite understanding, and returns a minute or two later carrying a glass of water with some ice cubes in it.

I'm not sure what that's supposed to be, but whatever it is, it's not New York ice water.

That is what quality satire looks like. Have a good weekend, everyone.

Alfred Differ said...

Y'all who imagine Musk trying to tank Twitter are trying to hard to find conspiracy where a much simpler explanation exists.

Musk is on record as preferring a minarchist approach to governance. Doesn't matter which side wants to regulate him and his activity, he will try to avoid it.

Helping a group regulate people is not something he'd be inclined to do... if he was aware of the objectives of those potential allies. Any conspiracy theory that posits intent on Musk's part to create oligarchic power is unlikely to be consistent with reality. Unintentional support might still be possible, but he's not a stupid guy.

The simplest theory for his purpose at Twitter is to make it a universal platform where no political grouping of us can prevent another from speaking and doing. A wealthy minarchist might try for such a thing.

-----

One thing to ponder about a universal platform run by a minarchist is that he's unlikely to tolerate anyone being barred short of extremely damn good reasons of which there aren't many. The biggest damn good reason, though, would be trying to prevent it from being universal. That's likely how a minarchist would see things.

Now ask yourselves what chance minority opinions would have on such a platform. Any at all? Yes. Their adherents would be able to find each other too meaning you'd hear some really ugly stuff expressed you never imagined people believed. You'd also see some beautiful stuff, but guess which type will hold your attention and produce indignation?

-----

If he wants to make it a universal platform that also gets into financial transactions, I might actually be supportive. He'd have to get into the identity business and I wouldn't mind seeing some competition in that field for the big banks, VISA, and their ilk. Those competitors would howl louder that the dinosaur automobile manufacturers did, but I'd LOVE to see them face a mammalian competitor along the lines of Tesla.

If he goes that direction, I'm likely to be a supporter for the simple fact that I want most of the world to be able to transact with most of the rest of the world without the dinosaurs on the scene. I wouldn't mind seeing an extinction event either, but I don't think that likely.

Tim H. said...

Another nit of grim amusement:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/11/musks-twitter-chaos-tosses-outrageous-insulin-pricing-into-the-spotlight/

It would seem Twitter may not be soluble by a small, but brilliant engineering team.

David Brin said...

Again, the key to resolving so many things will come from awakening the Russian populace (and indeed our MAGAs) from their collective, respective loyalty trances. Bits of info do get through, but can be shrugged off under incantations by state TV (or Fox). Only THIS cannot be! Demand a Big Commission to investigate claims that Ukraine had been Nazi or building nukes or joining NATO before the February invasion (Putin's pretexts), or whether there's any sign of 'satanists,' or the extent of devastating harm done to Ukraine by RF forces, that RF citizens will have to pay for, in taxes for generations.

What? you say Russian media will simply denounce the partiality of such a commission, the same way Fox nightly denounces every single US fact-using profession, from science to the FBI and military officer corps? Well sure. Unless the public demand is parsed right.

Make the commission from 100 Russian citizens chosen randomly from old utility bills... and 100 Ukrainians, 100 westerners and 100 from non-aligned nations. And yeah, 100 Chinese... so long as all may converge in Turkey and freely choose (at US expense) to go anywhere and see and report on anything. Talk to anyone they choose. Including citizens of Kherson, both liberated and dispersed by RF kidnappings.

Sound expensive? Well it would be worth it. Except we'll never have to pay. Because Putin would shriek and refuse! And it is that REFUSAL, penetrating through the borscht curtain, that would not be explicable or shruggable by any amount of blather on Russian state TV...

... just as wager demands over almost any testable foxite assertion ALWAYS result in MAGAs fleeing in jibbering panic amid the ruins of their macho preening.

It's called accountability. And I've only been yammering about it for 40 years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbpZijsCREc

Cari Burstein said...

Tim H. wrote:
It would seem Twitter may not be soluble by a small, but brilliant engineering team.

Not sure how many brilliant engineers they're going to have left at this rate even if it was. Most sane ones are running for the exits.

Alfred wrote:
One thing to ponder about a universal platform run by a minarchist is that he's unlikely to tolerate anyone being barred short of extremely damn good reasons of which there aren't many.

He seems to have no problem barring people for making fun of him.



Larry Hart said...


https://nowthisnews.com/news/watch-desantis-florida-is-where-woke-goes-to-die

“Florida is where woke goes to die”— FL Gov. Ron DeSantis said


With climate change and all, that slogan might take on a different meaning from how DeSanctimonius meant it.

Heh. Bill Maher said, "Well, Florida is where everybody goes to die."

Alfred Differ said...

making fun of him

His employees?

Larry Hart said...

Alfred Differ:

Y'all who imagine Musk trying to tank Twitter are trying to[o] hard to find conspiracy ...


In my case, it's more "daydream" than imagine.

Larry Hart said...

Alfred Differ continues:

The simplest theory for his purpose at Twitter is to make it a universal platform where no political grouping of us can prevent another from speaking and doing.


That may be what he wants, but it may be impossible for the same reason it would be impossible if he wanted to build a perpetual motion machine, or lift a rock so big that even he can't lift it.

At least one political grouping of us has preventing another from speaking and doing as a core goal.

Larry Hart said...

Tim H:

It would seem Twitter may not be soluble by a small, but brilliant engineering team.


Imagine a technology which allows anyone at any time to make his/her voice heard by everybody no matter where they are. Imagine what that would be like when everyone is broadcasting over each other in real time. To me, that is the inevitable end result of what the Elon Musks of the world think Twitter should be. Not that the ensuing noise level is their goal, but that there's no way to avoid it.

For those who have read Existence, recall the VR levels on which anyone can scribble any graffiti on the same wall and it stays there forever. Remember how that turned out. That's what Elon Musk's Twitter inevitably becomes. Again, I don't think he wants it to be that, but what else could it be?

Larry Hart said...

Sorry, but Alfred Differ again:

making fun of him

His employees?


I think you're snarking, but just in case not, I believe Cari Burstein was referring to Kathy Griffin.


One of Musk’s first acts on his supposedly free speech-oriented take on Twitter ― one where he declared comedy would be “legal” ― was to boot her for making fun of him.

So, the comedian turned up somewhere Musk couldn’t control: “Jimmy Kimmel Live.” And she did what Musk appears to hate most.

She impersonated him


Video link from the linked article:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/kathy-griffin-elon-musk-impression_n_636de36fe4b09c4db174c08b

Interestingly enough, the whole point of wanting a "universal app" might be to insure that there isn't a "somewhere Musk couldn’t control".

Larry Hart said...

The link above is the article. The video is in there.

Larry Hart said...

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/politics/abortion-midterm-elections-democrats-republicans.html

...
In Michigan, abortion rights pushed the party to victories in both chambers of the Legislature and re-elected Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, giving Democrats a trifecta of power in the state for the first time in 40 years. In Pennsylvania, the party won a Senate race and the governor’s mansion.

Exit polls conducted by the television networks and Edison Research showed that in Pennsylvania abortion overtook the economy as the top issue on voters’ minds, and in Michigan, nearly half of all voters said abortion was their top issue.
...


Is it maybe time to stop treating James Carville's admonition that "It's the economy, stupid!" as the last word on politics no matter what else is going on? It might have been a truism in 1993. That doesn't always make it so.

Alfred Differ said...

Larry,

(working backwards through your posts)

Ah. Kathy Griffin. Mz D List.
Well… he probably did her career a favor.

Fair point. It demonstrates he's thin skinned. However, once Kathy Griffin sets her sites on someone, they have to be VERY thick skinned to cope. She's quite something.

———

There is no such thing as a 'universal app' no single person will control.

What IS possible is a single protocol no single person dominates. I would recommend caution, though, because singletons that can't mutate come under threats that likely do. Sexual reproduction isn't efficient, but it sure as hell beats being eaten alive by hostile bacteria and reprogrammed by indifferent viruses.

———

That may be what he wants, but it may be impossible for the same reason it would be impossible if he wanted to build a perpetual motion machine, or lift a rock so big that even he can't lift it.

Perhaps, but consider what the world might look like if he proves the rock CAN be moved.

We are both old enough to remember when electric cars were a possibility that Detroit would not consider because they'd create competition for their own disposable IC tech. If even one of them had tried, others in the industry would have eaten them alive. Musk & Friends at Tesla moved that rock.

———

In my case, it's more "daydream" than imagine.

Think carefully about your motivation here.
Do you REALLY want him to fail? At what?
What if he isn't trying to do that? Is that a possibility you can consider?

Tony Fisk said...

Your President appears to harbour the same conspiratorial suspicions about Elon (or his backers) that I do.

Larry Hart said...

Alfred Differ:

"That may be what he wants, but it may be impossible for the same reason it would be impossible if he wanted to build a perpetual motion machine, or lift a rock so big that even he can't lift it."

Perhaps, but consider what the world might look like if he proves the rock CAN be moved.


I'd be happy if he proved that you can know both the location and the velocity of a subatomic particle.

And if he can somehow reconcile unadulterated free speech with a decent signal-to-noise ratio, I'll admit I was wrong.

(But I'm not)


"In my case, it's more "daydream" than imagine."

Think carefully about your motivation here.
Do you REALLY want him to fail? At what?


It's not personal about Musk with me. I don't want him to fail. I want Twitter to fail. And Facebook after that, but one thing at a time.

Alan Brooks said...

I want DeSantis to fail; he’s already practically measuring the drapes in the White House. He hears ‘Hail To The Chief’ in his mind.

matthew said...

I'm not certain that Elon wants Twitter to fail. I just raised that as a possibility to think about. I think it is more likely that Elon is addicted to Twitter and wanted to be the shitposter-in-chief. Promote his own posts, ban anyone that makes fun of him, etc. He has (had) enough money that he could afford it as a toy for his vanity.

I do think it is likely that the Saudis want Twitter to fail. I know the Chinese government and Russian government want Twitter to fail. I suspect that certain GOP oligarch backers would like Twitter to be gone. We know some of the funding that was used to buy Twitter came from these sources. It was not all Elon's money and we do not know what strings the money came with. POTUS was correct to say that the sale has national security implications.

And there is still an FTC consent decree. Elon's personal lawyer (not corporate lawyer, mind you) wrote a letter to Twitter employees urging them to not worry about the FTC and criminal liability for their actions. The correct action for a Twitter employee is to ask "Is Alex Spiro *my* lawyer?" and "Are you giving me legal advice?"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-11/musk-lawyer-calms-twitter-staff-fearing-jail-risk-for-ftc-lapses?leadSource=uverify%20wall

or if you're not able to get through the paywall at Bloomburg:
https://www.theverge.com/2022/11/11/23453553/elon-musk-twitter-alex-spiro-ftc-consent-decree

matthew said...

Elon banning Kathy Griffin for "impersonating" him? It is important to know two things:
1) Hundreds of celebrity "blue checkmark" accounts *also* changed their screen name to his at the same time and did not get banned.
2) Kathy Griffin is utterly hated by the Right. Fox ran hit-piece after hit-piece on her.

Her being banned is a message to his allies on the Right that Elon will target their enemies. It is a sales pitch to them and a warning to others.

Larry Hart said...

Alan Brooks:

I want DeSantis to fail; he’s already practically measuring the drapes in the White House. He hears ‘Hail To The Chief’ in his mind.


That didn't work out so well for Hillary.

Unknown said...

One of the many, many things that worried me during TFG's presidency* was the talk of US military leaders simply refusing to follow his orders. This seems to have been more in the vein of saying "Yes, Sir, we'll get right on that!" and doing nothing in the hope that TFG would leap on a new hobby-horse the next day and wouldn't notice, but it's not great precedent. On the other hand, during the 1/6 debacle the VP was actually issuing orders (which were obeyed) that should have come from the President. Also not great.

On the gripping hand, I'm rather glad that Tom Cotton, actual neofascist, is no longer running, because that's the kind to force resignations and /or fire generals till he found someone willing to drive tanks over protestors. Would DeSantis do the same? Hope we never get to find out.

Pappenheimer

*it still worries me that I'm surrounded by people who would prefer he still be in office, and a few of them apparently believe he secretly is.

Unknown said...

Off topic,

I've been reading about the "Law of the Splintered Paddle" since Mrs. Pappenheimer (Mammenheimer?) began indexing a book on Hawaiian culture. The basis is that noncombatants should be safe from war - "Let every elderly person, woman and child lie by the roadside in safety" - and takes its name from an incident in which King Kamehameha nearly got his skull cracked by a panicked fisherman who was protecting ohana (family).

Even in days of nuclear threats and aerial bombardment, it's something to push for.

Pappenheimer

locumranch said...

Musk is deliberately driving Twitter towards bankruptcy, not because he wants it to fail, but because he wants to reorganize & free it from its current service agreements and a pre-existing FTC Settlement which severely limits Twitter's ability to do business:

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/25/1101275323/twitter-privacy-settlement-doj-ftc

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/22038327-ftc-settlement-

Once a bankruptcy is filed, the court has broad authority over a debtor’s (the bankrupt company or person) property. As such, the Bankruptcy Code supersedes contracted ipso facto clauses, rendering them generally unenforceable based on two code provisions.

First, Sections 541(a) and (c) of the Bankruptcy Code provide that an interest of the debtor in property becomes property of the bankruptcy estate. This means that the court controls all property and contracts of the debtor and only the court can decide whether a contract can be assumed, rejected, or otherwise terminated despite what is stated in the contract.

Second, Section 365(e)(1) addresses ipso facto clauses in executory contracts, which are contracts that have not yet been fully performed or fully executed. Section 365(e)(1) specifically states that notwithstanding a provision in an executory contract, a debtor’s executory contract cannot be terminated or modified after the bankruptcy case has been filed solely because a term of the contract is conditioned on insolvency or financial condition of the debtor prior to the filing of bankruptcy. This provision of the Bankruptcy Code generally makes ipso facto clauses for executory contracts unenforceable.


Once freed from all preexisting contractual obligations & outdated service agreements, Musk plans to transform Twitter into what he recently described as an 'everything app' by expanding it to include retail sales, reservations, streaming, banking & finance options in an apparent attempt to challenge Amazon.

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/27/1131736191/elon-musk-twitter-tesla-spacex

Of course, this whole Twitter thing could blow up in Musk's face, but he really has everything to gain & nothing much to lose as his Tesla Ponzi scheme is due (long overdue) to collapse any day now.

Odds are that Musk will take out the entire overvalued Tech Bubble when he goes down, including Gates, Page, Brin, Zuckerberg & Bezos, assuming that the total collapse of the cryptocurrency market doesn't beat Musk to it.


Best

Alan Brooks said...

You’re quite the positive thinker.

Best

Alfred Differ said...

Ha! As if Musk is a big fan of having his property’s fate decided by a judge. 😏

duncan cairncross said...

The entire overvalued Tech Bubble

Facebook, Twitter, Cryptocurrency and other such ARE "overvalued

Tesla and SpaceX are making loads of money and expanding to make more

Not sure about Amazon - a competitor "could" eat its lunch but so sign so far

Larry Hart said...

I suppose that thinking Musk is intentionally destroying Twitter is similar to thinking that Donald Trump is intentionally destroying the Republican Party. Knowing the man (in both cases), it doesn't seem likely, but no other theory quite explains the facts so well.

Slim Moldie said...

I tend to agree with Locum regarding Musk's Twitter plans/motives. Twitter was purchased as tear down. Although Matthew's point about him using his disposable income to be a "shitposter-in chief" seems plausible, too in a sort of ABC after school special kind of way.

If you want Billionaire conspiracy theories don't think about what Asimov's R. Giskard does to the earth to force humanity to the stars






David Brin said...

"If you want Billionaire conspiracy theories don't think about what Asimov's R. Giskard does to the earth to force humanity to the stars"

Ironically I am writing a story set just before that, as we speak.

onward

onward