The Seldon Paradox and the (alas) revival of Karl Marx

               == Marxian predictions ==

In my parents' time, everyone - even the poor and certainly even rich plutocrats - understood the Marxian predictions which - like those of Hari-Seldon - seemed bound to come true, unless something changed.    .  

Those who wanted a different future than Old Karl forecast backed an alternative that Marxists deemed impossible... Preventing parasitical late-stage capitalism from replacing the fecund, flattish-fairish middle phase that Marx deeply admired.  In other words, continuation of the reform-aimed, incremental Bourgeoise Revolution, taking it ever-further down paths of ever-greater prosperous inclusion. 

(If you know nothing about Karl Marx's historical stages and predictions, including his admiration for middle-stage capitalism, though also his assumption that it must eventuially fail, then shame on you for ever referring to him!)

What Marxists never predicted - indeed deemed impossible, was how the American 'Greatest Generation' (GG) both adored FDR and enacted his general program of social flattening mixed with continued vigorous market cvompetition, uplifting tens of millions of children of the working class to confidently compete with scions of the rich...

...which gave the world its greatest (if flawed) era of both (flawed-but-general) peace and rising prosperity. Both of which are now being shredded, as we speak.

On my blog's erudite comment community (the smartest anywhere online) some have observed that our present crisis is happening precisely because the GG/FDR generation so thoroughly demolished the Marxian teleology!

Let's put it (as one commenter did) in sci fi terms:

'We see eye to eye about the Seldonian Paradox of Marxism. When the owning class takes seriously Marx's predictions of mass immiseration and political upheaval leading to guillotines for the rich, then they choose to help enact semi-socialist uplifts, cooperating with moderate reformers to to negate Marx's prediction by uplifting the working class into a comfortable middle class. It worked! Until Reagan began the Great Retraction and wealth disparities climbed again. Accelerating till today...

"As Seldon predicts when those reforms WORK, then the owning class ceases to take Marx's predictions seriously, so they defund and repeal the semi-socialist reforms, reverting society back into the feudal pyramid, and Marx's predictions, which had seemed canceled, thus tend to come true. And guillotine blades get sharpened again.

"The result is either a long-lived (rooseveltean) compromise, or a high-amplitude cycle with a period of 2 generations. The former is if there is intelligent life in the owning class, the latter if not.'

In other words, today's would-be feudal lords, aiming reflexively to restore 8000 years of feudal rule by inheritance brats, surround themselves with flatterers telling them how smart they are. I actually have witnessed this happen to FIVE I know personally, watching in dismay as their flexible intelligence rigidifies into self-flattering masturbation. In effect summoning eventual uber rides on tumbrels. 

In EXISTENCE I portray the other scenario - trillionaires actually trying to find a way to remain lords in a progressive society that won't get fed up and kill them. Alas, those attending Davos show little sign of such long-view sapience.

Alas, after 70 years when it seemed Marx was in a dustbin, his works are now flying off the shelves all over the globe. And the New Lords will discover, much to their pain, what that means.

THE SELDON PARADOX: A PREDICTION BECOMES INVALID WHEN EVERYONE KNOWS AND ACTS ON IT... TILL EVERYONE BECOMES ACCUSTOMED TO THE NEW SITUATION AND THEY LOSE ALL VIGILANCE... ... AND CONDITIONS DRIFT BACK TOWARD MAKING THE PREDICTION COME TRUE.

== Expanding a bit ==

Riffing back to my post here about the Mad Right's rush to resurrect Karl Marx from the dustbin. (See two earlier, more detailed postings by me here and here.) Let me clarify and expand on what the Greatest Generation all understood and NONE of you - even the smartest - appears ever to have learned. (And to a degree, it's why we are in this mess.)

Marx assumed that every business cycle would result in a narrowing of the owner class until the maximally diverse and creative bourgeoise middle class period would end and be replaced by new-feudalism - with which (as a historiographer) he was familiar.

Bourgeoise society confused him, even though he called it a 'necessary phase', to finish the Formation of Capital. But he foresaw it being finished off by capitalism's contradictions.

What he never imagined and never wrote about or discussed was the possibility that the bourgeoise revolution might be skillfully managed - by a combination of legislation and investments in young new competitors - thus allowing that most-creative phase to evade his fore-ordained collapse scenario. Reformed and skillfully managed by a populace who - warned by Marx of one path - might deliberately choose another. 

It's a path that evades KM's narrow New Oligarchy by both limiting the very rich to merely being very rich while continually expanding the middle class to include ever larger clades of skilled, confident young competitors...

... exactly as Adam Smith prescribed. (Indeed, Marx greatly admired Smith! Indeed, so should anyone with a scintilla of sense.)

That is - in fact - what the Roosevelteans achieved (or set in motion). It's what Reagan assumed was already done and could be retracted, sofely. And it's what the Trumpists are absolutely determined to crush... reviving and re-creating exactly Marx's end game scenario, while stoopidly and ignorantly unaware they are old Karl's dream come true.

      == So... what about today's stylish 'socialists'? ==

Among the many traps being laid for us across the coming months leading to the November US elections, some are fell and dangerous... like whether the oligarchs and Project 25 traitors will try to stage some kind of National Emergency, like a Reichstag Fire. (Else why the current, frantic purge of FBI and military officers?) Most likely among many scenarios? A convenient martyrdom, turning their rapidly-decaying asset into a tool, one last time.

But why bother, when our own side - the good side in this fraught phase 8 of the US Civil War - might be egged into splitting apart, amid self-destructive internal spats? 

Rupert Murdoch's dream salvation? 

Predictable spats amid the democratic party's herd of cats.

Do YOU see any sense in the wave of postings, during the last month, from an ill-defined 'left', denouncing 'mainstream-DNC dems' as little better than "republicans-lite"? 

        RIght. Demolish the broad-front, inclusive coalition that's the only hope of saving the enlightenment and the world. Sure. 

        Sanctimony is an addictive drug.
        

 (Bernie, Liz, Stacey, Jaime and AOC have to spend HALF of their energies just herding sanctimonious 'cats' back inside the broad tent of our coalition. See more here. Especially ask these passionate, mostly-young people: "Can you name the last three DNC chairs? Come back with this nonsense when you can.")

But worst of all is their chiché misuse of the term 'socialism,' breaking its actual definitions and unnecessarily handing the confederate-right a million or so votes by confirming Foxite narratives.

WTF?? No one has pounded the drum harder than me, to revive interest in the fine works of the post-WWII 'greatest' GI Bill Generation, whose most-adored hero was Franklin Roosevelt. (And a decade later, they adored Jonas Salk!) While they were deeply flawed compared to the more ethically advanced children and grandchildren they raised (e.g. Barry Obama raised by two white WWII veteran grandparents) their accomplishments - from infrastructure and magnificent universities to social security and Medicare to ponderous (and frustratingly slow) incremental actions - year by year - to purge bad habits of 70 centuries, like racism, sexism and feudalism.

Instead of falling for a trap and giving the confederate/putinists a great big target on our chests, how about YOU attack THEM instead, where it hurts?

Cite the GI Billers and the US Labor Movement that was the most ANTI-communist element of American life?

How about hurling an epithet at THEM? Shout "Feudalists!" Bent on restoring 6000 years of cruel rule by inheritance brats! A systemic and perennial human failure mode that was denounced by Adam Smith! (And Smith - if here today - would be a flaming-mad Democrat!)

In fact, ANTIFEU would be more sweeping than ANTIFA!

Upraising children of the working classes to compete (the c-word that the right never uses anymore) ... competing openly with sons and daughters of wealth...  is not the same "Socialism" as state ownership of the means of production. FDRism fills vigorously and creatively churning markets with skilled, capable, fearlessly bold and confident competitors from the middle class and even the poor.

THAT is the way to keep Marx at bay. End rule over humanity by lordly cheaters and their spoiled sons. Become again a scientific, joyfully-competitive (while compassionate) people who can end poverty and injustice and make the solar system our own.

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I’ll vouch personally. That -- "Vision is charming, wise, and completely engaging. This memoir of a judge of the country’s second highest court, who has been without sight for decades, goes down like a cool drink on a hot day." —Scott Turow.