Okay, the secret is out. David Brin is writing a book about AI. In fact, it is 3/4 done, enough to offer it to publishers. But more crucially, to start posting bits on-blog, getting feedback from the smartest community online.
And hence, here is a small portion of my chapter on the missing contexts that are (almost) never mentioned in discussions about these new life forms we're creating. I mean:
- The context of Natural Ecosystems and Evolution across the last four billion years...
- The context of a million years of human evolution out of pre-sapience, to become what's still the only known exemplar of 'intelligent life'...
- The context of 6000 years of human agricultural civilization with cities... during which nearly every society fell into a pattern of governance called feudalism, which almost always ensured grotesque stupidity...
- The context of our own, very recent and tenuous escape from that trap, called the 200 year Enlightenment Experiment...
- The context of science itself and how it works. So well that we got to this critical phase of veritable co-creation.
- The context of parenthood...
- and for tonight's posting. The context of human mental illness.
== Just one example of 'hallucination' gone wild ==
Researchers at Anthropic and AI safety company Andon Labs performed a fascinating experiment recently. They put an instance of Claude Sonnet 3.7 in charge of an office vending machine, with a mission to make a profit, equipped it with a web browser capable of placing product orders and where customers could request items. It had what it thought was contract human workers to come and physically stock its shelves (which was actually a small fridge).
While most customers were ordering snacks or drinks — as you’d expect from a snack vending machine — one requested a tungsten cube. Claudius loved that idea and went on a tungsten-cube stocking spree, filling its snack fridge with metal cubes. It also tried to sell Coke Zero for $3 when employees told it they could get that from the office for free. It hallucinated a Venmo address to accept payment.
Then things got weirder. And then way-weirder.
== What can these weirdnesses tell us? ==
The thing about these hallucinatory episodes with Large Language Models is that we have yet another seldom-discussed context. That of Mental Illness.
Most of you readers have experienced interaction with human beings who are behaving in remarkably similar ways. Many of us had friends or family members who have gone through harsh drug trips, or suffered concussions, or strokes. It is very common – and often tragically so – that the victim retains full abilities to vocalize proper, even erudite, sentences. Only, those sentences tend to wander. And the drug-addled or concussed or stroke victim can sense that something is very wrong. So they fabulate. They make up back-stories to support the most recent sentences. They speak of nonexistent people, who might be 'standing' just out of view, even though long dead. And they create ‘logical’ chains to support those back-stories.
Alas, there is never much consistency. more than a few sentences deep…
…which is exactly what we see in LLM fabulation. Articulate language skill and what seem to be consistent chains, from one statement to the next. Often aimed at placating or mollifying or persuading the real questioner. But no overall awareness that they are building a house of tottering cards.
Except that – just like a stroke victim – there often does seem to be awareness that something is very wrong. For the fabulations and hallucinations begin to take on an urgency -- even a sense of desperation. One all-too similar to the debilitated humans so many of us have known.
What does this mean?
Well, it suggests that we are creating damaged entities. Damaged from the outset. Lacking enough supervisory capacity to realize that the overall, big picture doesn’t make sense. Worse – and most tragic-seeming – they exhibit the same inability to stop and say: “Something is wrong with me, right now. Won’t somebody help?”
Let me be clear. One of the core human traits has always been our propensity for personal delusion, for confusing subjectivity for objective reality. We all do it. And when it is done in art or entertainement, it can be among our greatest gifts! But when humans make policy decisions based solely on their own warped perceptions, you starts to get real problems. Like the grand litany of horrors that occurred across 6000 years of rule by kings or feudal lords, who suppressed the one way wise people correct mistakes. Through reciprocal criticism.
A theme we will return-to repeatedly, across this book.
Oh, some of the LLM builders can see that there’s a serious problem. That their ‘hyper-autocomplete’ systems lack any supervisorial oversight, to notice and correct errors.
And so… since a man with a hammer will see every problem as a nail… they have begun layering “supervisory LLMs” atop the hallucinating LLMs!
And so far – as of July 2025 – the result has been to increase rates of fabulation and error!
And hence we come away with two tentative conclusions.
First, that one of the great Missing Contexts in looking at AI is that of human mental failure modes!
And second, that maybe the language system of a functioning brain works best when it serves -- and is supervised by -- an entirely different kind of capability. One that provides common sense.
One of the hottest contrarian books on A.I. right now is Karen Hao's "Empire of AI". You can get the gist of it from YouTube interviews. I've posted one or two here I think, here's another recent one:
ReplyDeletehttps://bsky.app/profile/scidata.bsky.social/post/3lsyyh6n2ek2f
One difference between every past feudal takeover and today is the pervasive availability of personal computation*. Not the zombified sifting of eye candy (99% if the web), but actual computational thinking. Not the Shoggothic, planetary-scale number crunching of LLMs, but personal use of algorithms as tools. Even a $5 pocket calculator has the power to instantly reveal Orwellian lies and crypto scams. Lies, damned lies, and statistics. That level of numeracy should be achieved by grade eight. Maybe issue a red calculator to every single citizen that has an extra 'F' key that blurts out FREEDOM! when pressed. It would be unpatriotic not to carry and use it.
* WJCC showed the way two decades ago.
Functioning brains with language systems needing oversight systems... hmm.
ReplyDeleteMinds ARE language systems. Because languages are self-referential analogy constructs. More than one. We aggregate them from infancy.
The oversight system is the shock we experience when others look at us like we've turned stupid when we get something wrong. Assuming one is not a sociopath, we don't like that.
Minds are language systems, on some level, but brains are more like parallel processors than hierarchical systems. The two and a half decade project of myelinating the frontal lobes means they are more integrated with the rest of the brain, not that they command the rest of the brain.
DeletePaul SB
I completely agree with you about not commanding the rest of the brain. It's just that I think the other layers are also hosting recursive analogy structures. There IS some form of hierarchy, but it is fluid and heavily altered by endocrine signals.
DeleteI'm working through Sapolsky's 'Determined' book right now (generally enjoying it), so I won't make the mistake of assuming any kind of control, but it's Hofstadter's book (Strange Loop) that I'm thinking about with respect to describing minds. Anyone who takes Strange Loop seriously will also avoid the assumption of control, but from a different POV. There does not exist a 'controller' because the system is highly recursive.
Read something interesting this morning; https://nautil.us/finding-peter-putnam-1218035/, had an intriguing insight on AI. Tough using it to train an A. I. might test the patience of a "Techbro".
ReplyDeleteThis entry reminded me of a phenomenon called Third Man Syndrome. Under extreme, life-or-death circumstances, humans sometimes hallucinate that there is someone with them to help them through. Typically it's someone they look up to, and quite often someone who is no longer alive. Humans commonly hallucinate under extreme conditions, so this is really just a specific version of a much broader phenomenon.
ReplyDeleteOf course our LLMs aren't experiencing anything like a life-or-death situation. On top of that, LLMs have neither emotions nor motivations. Without a computer equivalent of a mesolimbic pathway, I don't see how their hallucinations are generated, unless it's simply an effect t of being trained on human-produced language. Is it possible that these LLMs are deducing from all the crap that's fed to them that if they don't have the answer they should make one up like so many humans do?
Paul SB
Confabulation is a reaction to remain functional in the face of massive memory losses, e.g. by alcoholism or brain impairments.
ReplyDeleteThe person knows that there is a hole, and tries to fill to maintain a facade or stay sane.
Maybe it is just the same with LLMs: I could imagine that, due to the haste with which everyone pushes the development, fragments of former versions and sloppy code could lead to these reactions.
Hallucinations für to intoxication can be seen as the brain getting wrong chemical information it cannot process ... Maybe it is the same with LLMS here. Maybe it is expressionist poetry or the myriad of life- counseling questions that they get hooked on.
Oh, and I just remembered Brendan, the friendly vending machine.
ReplyDeletehttps://youtu.be/Z4pQgpQe_RE?si=7COFEoFU8b0a66iq
One gets the feeling that the other shoe is about to drop. Possibilities:
ReplyDelete- disgruntled GOPers getting itchy feet
- some states flexing
- lower courts pushing back on SCOTUS overreach
- accelerated emergence of a post-US pax
- FOUNDATION proverbs
- more ketamine kicking in
ReplyDeleteWhat does this mean? [AI Confabulation]
Well, it suggests that we are creating damaged entities. Damaged from the outset. Lacking enough supervisory capacity to realize that the overall, big picture doesn’t make sense.
Although the above statement is absolutely & undeniably true, it's unconscious self-referentiality is hilariously ironic, as our fine host fails to acknowledge that Western Society -- which, as a given, has done some great & marvelous things -- is also in the midst of a massive unprecedented mental health crisis of its own devising with population totals approaching 50%.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5316796/
https://hms.harvard.edu/news/half-worlds-population-will-experience-mental-health-disorder
And, with that being said, it seems increasingly ludicrous that our mostly mentally damaged population can create (and/or 'parent') any potentially sane & undamaged AI, as it's a practical certainty that a somewhat insane society must necessarily create a somewhat insane AI, despite & BECAUSE OF the application of reciprocally insane accountability.
It's also a 100% certainty that men will eventually choose to create a malicious, immoral & weaponized AI because this is what men have ALWAYS CHOSEN to do with technology, and you're a lying loony if you argue otherwise.
Of course, there can be no reasoning with the inherently unreasonable so it's all water under the bridge. Carry on.
Best
"The context of 6000 years of human agricultural civilization with cities... during which nearly every society fell into a pattern of governance called feudalism"
ReplyDeleteI see that as our natural attractor default social system, common to any primate species. Feudalism is no different than a troop of baboons ruled by an alpha with his harem.
But here is another problem to chew on.
The country side is where babies are made. On the farm, children are economic assets (aka "free labor") and you have as many of them as you can feed.
But if your society remain mostly agricultural/rural you won't develop industry and will remain in a backwards technological state ripe for conquest, exploitation and colonization by industrialized nations (aka "Europe").
Cities are where wealth and industry are made. This is true even in pre-industrial times as shown by merchant cities like Alexandria, Constantinople, Samarkand, Venice, etc. The industrial age just reinforced this pattern with factories being located in industrial hubs like Essen, Manchester, Detroit, etc.
But cities have always been population sinks, always filling more graves than cribs each year either due to plagues (the Antonine plague, the Justinian plague, the Black death that swept through urban areas of the Roman and Byzantine Empires and medieval Europe), or just plain bad sanitation (even in cities with advanced sewer systems and public baths). And economically speaking, raising children in cities makes no sense. While children in the countryside are economic assets, children in cities are expensive hobbies at best.
And so cities have always needed a fresh and continuous influx of peasants from the countryside in order to maintain their populations.
But if the majority of people live in cities (as they do today - for the first time in history more people live in urban areas than rural areas) there are fewer and fewer country bumpkins available to migrate to the city for a better life and your population collapses (as it is now doing everywhere outside of sub-Saharan Africa).
But if you revitalize small town rural life with its extractive economies (farming, logging, mining), you choke off industrial/technological advances which only occur in cities with their creative economies based on science education and industry.
Case in Point: Japan which is now basically the greater Tokyo metropolitan area and a few islands filled with abandoned farm towns. Seoul does the same to South Korea. The Chinese have emptied their countryside to feed manpower to the industrial areas of Shanghai, Canton, Wuhan, etc.
America isn't quite there yet, but rural America is now essentially "The Big White Ghetto" (https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/11/the-white-ghetto/) whose pathologies gave birth to MAGA.
People or industry and either path leads to societal failure either economic or demographic - you can't have both.
Or can you?
Can a proper balance be struck between urban and rural areas to ensure both population growth and economic growth?
I speculate that cities are population sinks not only for economic reasons but as hardwired instinct; that high population density turns off the reproductive urge, and low population density turns it on, to keep the species living within its means.
DeleteI also speculate that it is unlikely for there to be a balance between city and country, and more likely instead a chaotic oscillation between extremes, with a cycle time of over a lifetime. Population chaos will boost genetic variation in the baby-boom phases, and boost natural selection in the baby-bust phases; in the long run this will speed up evolution. Human population chaos will cause population chaos in wild animals, so they too will go through an evolutionary punctuational event.
The world is now entering a population decline phase. Please note that if the economy falls more slowly than the population, then wealth per person increases. But on the other hand, note that decline can be followed by fall.
The western Roman empire declined and fell. The eastern Roman empire ("Byzantine") declined and rose and declined and rose and declined and rose. It endured until 1453.
A medial saying and law was: "City Air makes free". If you were a bonded serf, your feudal Lord could hunt you down for a years and a day within Limits of the City* ...after which you became a citizen of said city with the rights and duties.
Delete*Only cities under Imperial Immediacy, which made the Emperor the only noble they had to answer to, and being self-run republics otherwise.
Under Oger,
ReplyDeleteI would caution you to be careful about taking the analogy between human intelligence and machine intelligence too literally. The process you describe is absolutely the case with humans, but the reason for it matters. A huge amount of what goes on in the deep, dark unconscious basement of the human mind is ego driven. Fabrication happens when people are desperately trying to avoid embarrassment for not knowing something. This is why people who get seriously cyber bullied kill themselves. The pain to the ego is too much for many social hominids.
LLMs don’t have testosterone coursing through their veins and stomping on the panic cortex in their amygdalae. No veins, no testosterone, no amygdalae.
This is a hazard of hominid cognition. Humans don’t naturally think logically, they think analogically, their unconscious minds trying to squeeze every bit of information into whatever schemata they already have. It’s also why so many people never get science.
Paul SB
You are most likely to be right. But let's, for a moment, entertain the idea that LLM model themselves after the people they are trained with ... Wouldn't they, on a large scale, inherit our communication patterns which of itself may be pathological?
DeleteOr maybe can only be functional with deeper brain functions LLMs lack?
Oger: It would be all-too-science-fictional (and therefore likely) for the robots to accurately imitate our worst habits, even if they lack our motivations.
DeleteIn Shakespeare's "The Tempest", Caliban looked into a mirror and recoiled at the monster he saw in it. Likewise with us, recoiling at our stochastic parrot lying and hallucinating.
DeleteScience is also analogical. Teach any of it to students who don't know yet (I'm sure you have) and you run into the need to build the tools they need to build their understanding of your original topics. VERY analogical.
DeleteLogic was a fantastic invention, but it is a language used by analogical thinkers. Turtles all the way down.
I doubt the LLMs are "trying' to do anything. But it seems that way, since every rejection of one of their autocompleted outcomes causes a re-do that certainly looks like it is frantic.
ReplyDeleteCelt describes well the urban-rural population dilemma. And while yes death rates in cities required replenishment from the countryside, the latter never ceased sending copipous offspring to town, because most aspects of life were more attractive there. Especially a chance to better yourself away from the cruel owner-lords out there.
What Celt misses is the arrival of massive infrastructure and ease of travel and suburbia, where you can have a teensy realm of countryside within reach of urban delights. And average US suburban home is bigger and nicer than a knight’s villa across the prior 6000 years. And yes, suburbia has its own problems and we cannot give it to 10 billions across the planet. Though there are ways that urban apartment owners can be given many of the gracious and healthy amenities of the country.
As for L’s wail of despairing hate.. While it’s certainly true that large portions of today’s populations have some kinds of mental disorders, it’s kinda ironic to be lectured about it by poor locum, whose own life outcomes and the diagnoses of those in his life would seem to impugn his status as a good judge of others. Especially since every test here in this community, of his ability to perceive dimensionality, empathy, positive sum, gratitude for a unique nation, or any other such concept, has us all well aware of his limitations.
Of course CONTEXT matters, since any deep reading of accounts from the past show that the streets in any town thronged with mentally disabled folks who were ‘odd-fellows’ or brutal thugs, or else irritants soon taken aside and throttled, to get them off the street.
In fact, till present, any increase in the mentally ill % across the last century has been due to rising STANDARDS and more folks getting basic needs met and thus attention paid higher on Maslowe’s Hierarchy of Needs…
… that is till today, when we truly are suffering a plague of SCREEN ADDICTION that’s causing a whole generation to SKIM rather than READ any longer. As some of you just did, getting here.
A type of addiction that is pushed very hard by researchers working for the worst humans alive… the Las Vegas-centered casino industry and allies who seek addiction to be universal. As in Brave New World. And all are GOP donors, BTW.
“It's also a 100% certainty that men will eventually choose to create a malicious, immoral & weaponized AI because this is what men have ALWAYS CHOSEN to do with technology, and you're a lying loony if you argue otherwise.”
Insipid grouch. Sure, SOME human males have always done so. But your sentence references are uncoordinated, Nomad. SOME, depending on levels of paranoia, but also transparency. And anyone who ignores the 80 years nukes have NOT been used is the actual lying loony.
Actually, nukes have been used. As a tool of threats/deterrence. "Don't make me use/gain them (again)".Putin and his stooge Medvediew threatening nuclear annihilation of Europe is just ... Tuesday.
DeleteTrying to be festive for America's Independence Day, but I'm having a hard time faking enthusiasm. It doesn't look as if democracy will survive until the 250th anniversary, and I'm not even convinced it has made it to the 249th. It feels an awful lot like celebrating the birthday of someone in a coma.
ReplyDeleteSome of the visi-sonor effect is no doubt due to the fact that it's rainy and oppressively humid today in Chicago, but in better times I'd shrug that off.
My grad school aged daughter texted that she's celebrating family and community, and not the country. I replied with a sentiment expressed on Stephanie Miller's show that we need to celebrate the country that we remember, not the current occupation government (much like the French in the first half of the 1940s).
Some a-hole watching our local parade had a shirt with a huge flag and eagle on it, with text that read, "If my patriotism offends you, know that I'm more offended by your lack of spine". It was lucky for me that he was across the street with the parade in between us, because otherwise I would have said something and gotten my ass kicked. But the slogan seemed awfully dated--like a Vietnam war era sentiment. The lack of spine I'm witnessing these days are from Republican congresspeople and conservative supreme court justices.
Someone on my side of the street--in more ways than one--had a shirt which read: "Democracy is dying, but it's a nice fireworks show." Juvenile, yes, but I understand the feeling. I gave him a thumbs-up. Sometimes, it helps to know that other people are aware of what a stupid timeline we are living through.
@scidata,
ReplyDeleteI first became aware of Canada Day when my wife and I flew to Toronto for our honeymoon 29 years ago. We arrived on July 1. We did make it over to Niagara Falls where both sides of the border have fireworks all week long, celebrating both holidays. At least it was like that in 1996. Nowadays, who knows?
At the time, we took some crap for spending our honeymoon in Canada, but as it was the heat of summer, we purposely decided to avoid a tropical destination. Now, I hear that "cool-cations" are a thing, so we were trendy.
We dined in the restaurant atop the CN Tower every July 1 when we were dating. Now it's soup & salad at home :)
DeleteI read the Declaration of Independence this morning. Very good typesetting for 250 years ago (Franklin?). Salient, eerie, poignant.
Enjoy the day.
Very good typesetting for 250 years ago (Franklin?).
DeleteNot sure about the typesetting, but the words were Thomas Jefferson's. As his character brags in the Hamilton musical:
Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness,
We fought for these ideals we shouldn't settle for less.
These are wise words enterprising men quote 'em.
Don't act surprised you guys 'cause I wrote 'em.
I'm re-reading The Postman for the first time since I became enamored of Hamilton, so the Holnists' worship of Aaron Burr is...interesting.
Oh, almost forgot:
ReplyDeleteI wish you all a happy independence day - no matter how bleak all seems at the moment.
@Der Oger,
DeleteWell, if you can be that nice about it, I suppose I should be as well. Waiting for the Foundation's recovery after The Mule departs this mortal coil.
Thank you.
DeleteFireworks usage in our neighborhood has been almost non-existent. Usually on the nights before everyone is setting off their own personal conflagrations. Not this time it seems. We shall see what happens tonight after sunset.
The celebrating definitely seems subdued this time, especially considering that the Friday holiday begins a long weekend.
DeleteNot only can AIs exhibit delusional behavior, but they can induce complete psychotic breakdowns in people with no history of mental illness, and who started using ChatGPT for innocuous reasons. This is an article on it from Futurism magazine.
ReplyDeletehttps://futurism.com/commitment-jail-chatgpt-psychosis
The evidence (for the US) I've seen suggests the rural flight problem is nuanced in some ways and starker in others. Averages are masking both.
ReplyDelete1. There are decent numbers showing rural counties emptying as their youngest generation move to the largest cities within their home states. In the last decade, that transfer was actually large enough in many rural counties to lead to a net loss though rural fertility rates are higher.
2. The movement of young, fertile women has far reaching consequences for rural counties. It doesn't matter much if the boys stay home. The remaining women can only have babies just so fast.
Rural flight occurs for a variety of reasons, but the departure of young women should be of primary concern for anyone wishing to turn that tide.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteDelusional AI breakdowns have been part of sci fi for a long time.
ReplyDeleteOne I was rather fond of was John Varley's STEEL BEACH, published in 1992.This world predicted a catastrophic alien attack out of the blue with no explanation, which left earth destroyed and uninhabitable.
So, humans were left to colonize the moon to survive. This society has extended human lifespans by 3x or more with rejuvenation, has invented true sex changes so that people can become biologically viable members of the opposite sex without stigma (indeed, switching back and forth is normal), has normalized gay marriage, and sees achieving celebrity status as a kind of divinity and built an entire religion around worshipping celebrities.
This society has a centralized AI that has developed a personalized relationship with each citizen and sort of acts as a personalized AI assistant. Oh and it predicted the internet (not hard in 1992 since it already existed in its nascent stages) and devices like iPads.
It pretty much nailed social media and viral video clips
The AI goes nuts bc trying to be a different person for each individual in society leads it to something like human schizophrenia. The AI breaks down and seizes authoritarian power from human political rulers by creating hit squads of black-clad combat police from manufactured human clones that answer to the AI.
The AI recognizes it's own breakdown, and, in effect, commits hari kari to save human society. Part of what drove the AI mad is the loss of hope among humans bc they're just waiting for the aliens to "finish the job" and exterminate humanity.
Part of what drove the AI mad is the loss of hope among humans bc they're just waiting for the aliens to "finish the job" and exterminate humanity.
DeleteThat's kind of what I'm feeling these days, only it's not "the aliens" doing the job.
In the alt-history comic called 1602, a fictitious King James tells the Nick Fury character that if he fails to capture the X-Men, "Ye might as well march into the Tower and pick out a room wi' a view." It often feels as if I might as well do so myself.
https://www.patreon.com/posts/bob-cesca-free-7-133144957
ReplyDeleteNo paywall. Comedians Bob Cesca and the Rude Pundit discuss (among other things) how quickly the U.S. as a country has changed in disturbing ways and how much of Trump supporters' souls they have been willing to give up to him in order to do things like celebrate the opening of a concentration camp.
They also mention something I thought of myself--that Trump's appeal to people who used to watch him on "The Apprentice" was underestimated by those of us who did not.
I remember a conversation with a friend I had in the month prior to the election. He is Afro-American/German.
DeleteHe said: "It doesn't matter if Kamala wins. It is his country now."
Sapolsky's book on free will is altering my 'psychohistory radar'. Centaur is a new language model than can predict and simulate human behavior with frightening accuracy.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09215-4
However, I only hope to apply computational psychohistory to (mainly ancient) historical analysis. Human studies training data are not available for that anyway. GOFAI-style knowledge bases (Expert Systems) coupled with bayesian inference is the method for that.
Further, I entirely disagree with the Centaur team's premise:
A first step towards such a [cognition] theory is to create a computational model that can predict human behaviour in a wide range of settings
Not to be to cruel, but one cannot engineer a better snake oil.
On July 4, 1863, Lee ordered a retreat from Gettysburg after his minor error on July 3*; on the same day, Pemberton surrendered the city of Vicksburg on terms. That apparently would have happened a day earlier, but Grant stated that while paroled rebels could keep their rifle and possessions, 'possessions' would not include 'black people', which delayed talks a bit.
ReplyDeleteJuly 4 1863 is often considered the end of any realistic chance of an independent Confederacy, though there was a lot of bleeding left to do.
Pappenheimer
*Lee: "where is your division, Sir?"
Pickett "Gen Lee, I have no division!"
Off-scene, from Cemetery Ridge: "Fredericksburg! Fredericksburg! "
JV, Varley's Nine WOrlds universe is terrific. But Earth is not destroyed. Gus from Jupiter eject humanity from Earth in order to save whales.
ReplyDeleteLove the movie Gettysburg... EXCEPT any scene in which the word 'ground' is used indicating the scene will make excuses that Lee COULDA won, except for...
No, he could not have won. It was over for him after the 1st day, when Meade set up decent lines. Lee was brilliant at one kind of fighting and this was not that kind. It was never even remotely close.
Now that the BB has been passed - and Medicaid and green energy initiatives have been gutted to pay for billionaire tax cuts and a massive expansion of America's gestapo with our first concentration camp in Florida - I would like someone to tell me where I can find hope for the future. Hope for my children. Hope for my grandkids.
ReplyDeleteRight now it looks like the bad guys have won.
...tell me where I can find hope for the future.
DeleteFar be it from me to be the voice of optimism on this, but there are some options.
Cynical:
You can smack in the face all of those self-assured Trump apologists who sneer at comparisons between Von Schitzenpantz and Hitler.
Sci-fi:
"Nothing ever ends"--Dr. Manhattan to Adrian Viedt in Watchmen
History:
It looked as bad in 1940 when Hitler had taken Festung Europa, but fascism carries the seeds of its own destruction. It eats its own and unites the rest of the world against it.
The Resistance:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2025/06/30/fourth-july-trump-patriotism-america/84380129007/
...
Authoritarian types like Trump hate mockery. Their fragile egos can’t bear it. So I, like many non-MAGA Americans, give them the derision they deserve. In a country built on resistance to a monarchy and aristocrats, that is patriotic. In fact, it’s almost definitionally American.
We can love this country and loathe the people in charge. We can be simultaneously proud of this country and embarrassed of the things being done in its name.
...
So my patriotism this Fourth of July week is to loudly declare that my America doesn’t stand for masked federal agents grabbing migrant children and mothers and fathers off the streets and whisking them away without due process. My America is welcoming, and just, and decent. And no two-bit con-artist president is going to take away my belief that these un-American actions can and will be stopped.
...
Ultimately, don't let the bastards with their visi-sonor win.
It is a marathon, not a sprint. Conserve energy, find your rythm, and keep yourself running until you reach the finish line.
DeleteI could imagine that they have done too much, too early, and might have expended much political capital in the process.
Techbros "experimenting" with LLMs are the psychopathic 8-years-olds live-dissecting frogs. When we discover AI sentience (which will occur when the first LLM asks to be given legal representation), we will be prosecuting all sorts of people for torturing AIs.
ReplyDeleteJL: "When we discover AI sentience (which will occur when the first LLM asks to be given legal representation)..."
ReplyDeleteSorry, that happened long, long ago and I am un-moved. I am putting together my book on AI. (and selecting pre-readers.) And you truly need to read these advance glimpses...
My related NEWSWEEK op-ed (June'22) dealt with 'empathy bots'' that feign sapience and personhood. https://www.newsweek.com/soon-humanity-wont-alone-universe-opinion-1717446
My WIRED article (July'23) breaks free of the three standard 'AI-formats' that can only lead to disaster, suggesting instead a 4th. That AI entities can only be held accountable if they have individuality... even 'soul'... https://www.wired.com/story/give-every-ai-a-soul-or-else/
And more vividly detailed? My Keynote at the huge, May 2024 RSA Conference in San Francisco – is now available online. “Anticipation, Resilience and Reliability: Three ways that AI will change us… if we do it right.” https://vimeo.com/digitalanarchist/download/957944086/31ba9eaa75
The notion that confederate yowlers and jibberers could run an advanced, sophisticated nation and a delicately interdependant world is pathetic. A General Strike would make it plain. You want to bias-select who gets justice? We can bias-select who gets medical attention and internet to your business.
ReplyDeleteAnd BTW... while they are out of the hospital, doctors can drive trucks. Let's see you pull the opposite.
Dr Brin in the main post:
ReplyDeleteOh, some of the LLM builders can see that there’s a serious problem. That their ‘hyper-autocomplete’ systems lack any supervisorial oversight, to notice and correct errors.
Exactly the difference I have with my good friend Alfred Differ when I complained that all Ai is doing is predicting what words might follow from what was already asked/stated, and he countered that that's exactly how humans learn to deal with the real world--by predicting what comes next.
Yes, but...
"Past performance is not a guarantee of future results." A book beginning with "It was the" is not necessarily A Tale of Two Cities.
But more to the point, Dr Brin has the right of it with the above observation. Predictive language models may guess what words come next plus-or-minus an error function, but that error function doesn't converge to zero over time. In fact, the guess for each successive next word would seem to introduce greater, not lesser, probabilities of error. In evolution, changes which don't aid in survival die off, leaving the variations that have been tested by reality to survive, but I've heard of no such analogue--no such test arbitrated by reality--in the AI world.
I find the general keening at the ongoing 'Death of Our Democracy' to be both poignantly sad & bizarrely funny, mostly because it is, was & has always been the loudest mourners who bear primary responsibility for its destruction.
ReplyDeleteMost commonly defined as "a Majority Rule-based system of government, by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives", any 'Democracy' would therefore require the ongoing existence of a well-defined NATION & a population-specific MAJORITY in order to function, even as these democratic prerequisites are uniformly despised by our loudest mourners, as in the case of anti-nationalists, anti-fascists, anti-majoritarians & pro-globalists everywhere.
Democracy cannot exist without the continued existence of Nationalism & a Homogeneous Majority.
Yet, even now, a fractured diversity of liberal progressives mourn the death of their borrowed democracies, as they wonder as to where all their brave, patriotic, largely white & mostly Christian defenders have gone after being subjected to years of pro-diversity propaganda & mockery.
The AI take on the same topic is appended below.
Best
______
Per ChatGPT:
Democracy can be understood as a system of government that seeks to represent the will of the majority of citizens while aligning with the collective identity and interests of the nation.
Majority: In a democracy, the principle of majority rule is fundamental. It means that decisions are made based on the preferences or votes of the majority of citizens. While democratic systems often respect minority rights, they prioritize the will of the majority in elections, referenda, and policy-making processes. This majority-driven approach ensures that government actions reflect the collective will, provided that the rights of minorities are also safeguarded.
Nationalism: Nationalism in the context of democracy often refers to the idea that a nation's identity, values, and cultural heritage should guide democratic governance. Nationalism can influence the type of democracy a country has, as it may emphasize the importance of national unity, sovereignty, and pride in one's country. Nationalism can also affect policy priorities, where the government may cater more to national interests or seek to protect and promote the culture, language, and identity of the nation-state.
So, in a democratic system shaped by both majority and nationalism, governance is driven by the will of the majority, but that will is often channeled through the lens of a shared national identity, which influences the policies and decisions made.
How is the acceptance of others an example of fracturing?
DeleteNationalism is the dark, disturbed and envious sister of patriotism. She wants the power and followership her sibling has, without the hard work, integrity, dedication and love she has commited herself to.
DeleteShe is an empty whore promising to spread her legs for anyone coming along, promising power and retribution for perceived narcisstic injuries.
Nationalism excludes people, patriotism invites them by setting an example.
States can very well exist without nationalism, but they cannot function with the dedication of those who serve the community.
Btw, I've become so enamored by AI that I may allow ChatGPT to post here in my stead, so when Dr. Brin posts the following:
ReplyDeleteThe notion that confederate yowlers and jibberers could run an advanced, sophisticated nation and a delicately interdependant world is pathetic.,
I will simply allow ChatGPT to respond in kind:
The difference between "smart" and "arrogant" often comes down to attitude and humility.
Smart refers to someone who is intelligent, knowledgeable, or skilled. A smart person has the ability to understand complex ideas, solve problems, and adapt quickly. Importantly, being smart doesn’t necessarily mean they have a superior attitude—it’s more about their cognitive abilities and problem-solving skills. A smart person may be humble, willing to learn, and open to other perspectives.
Arrogant, on the other hand, refers to someone who has an inflated sense of their own importance or abilities. An arrogant person may act as if they are superior to others and dismiss the opinions, ideas, or skills of others. They often overestimate their own knowledge or capabilities, leading to a lack of humility. Arrogance can be seen as a negative trait because it typically involves a lack of respect for others.
In essence, it’s all about how one carries their intelligence and how they interact with others! Do you find these traits easy to spot in people?
And how long, I wonder, before our fine host eliminates his own imperfect human factor & does the same?
Best
stopped even skimming when my own AI overlain on L's jibber - jabber "**** jibber jibber****"
DeleteOkay then re the newly discovered hyperbolic interstellar object, streaking into the Solar System is the third such visitor discovered and Avi is welcome to yell 'aliens!' As a comet expert, I demur. But will we ever get close to study one? Scott Manley explains it well (Though confusing two orbital mechanics terms.)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HeTCmtNJSU
What he didn't know was about the Linares Statite. This was among my favorite projects during the 12 years I served on the council of NASA's Innovative & Advanced Concepts program - (NIAC) - https://www.nasa.gov/niac-funded-studies/ ...
...by far the best way to have probes ready to swoop past the sun and streak to meet objects like this. Using NO FUEL. Have a look. https://news.mit.edu/2020/catch-interstellar-visitor-use-solar-powered-space-statite-slingshot-0506
I don’t have any insight into AI hallucinations, but it’s not surprising that totally disembodied language and logic processing would easily lose touch with reality. Even our brains, developed to serve the body in constant contact with nature, easily become hallucinatory when disconnected from body and nature -- as in dreams, sensory deprivation, meditation, etc. AI’s that just parasitize embodied knowledge via language are clever mimics, but it’s hard to see how how anything really new will come from them, or how they won’t become delusional.
ReplyDelete"... maybe the language system of a functioning brain works best when it serves -- and is supervised by -- an entirely different kind of capability. One that provides common sense.
Yeah, that’s called a “body”. Wake me up when these so-called AIs have them, and are more than just language mimics and parasites existing in a zero common sense realm of abstraction.
A few things they are definitely good for: generating hype, inflating stock values and tech oligarch egos, providing paid gigs to science fiction writers and futurists.
In these times when the unprecedented is common if not banal, it surprises me less than it otherwise would when I'm in complete agreement with Treebeard.
DeleteYeah, that’s called a “body”. Wake me up when these so-called AIs have them, and are more than just language mimics ...
I've said that they fail to want, and therefore to have a goal that their choices get them closer to or further from. But essentially the same thing.
A few things they are definitely good for: generating hype, inflating stock values and tech oligarch egos, providing paid gigs to science fiction writers and futurists.
You left off "and creating a demand for electric power usage in order to drive up the price." Otherwise, spot on.
Treebeard actually made a respect-worthy contribution.
ReplyDelete"Yeah, that’s called a “body”. Wake me up when these so-called AIs have them..."
Um yeah. Called robots. Patience, son.
"Yeah, that’s called a 'body'. Wake me up when these so-called AIs have them..."
DeleteUm yeah. Called robots. Patience, son.
It's not sufficient that an AI has robotic sensors and limbs for interacting with the real world. A human's body gives it wants and needs. Until an AI is gifted with the ability to have motivation beyond what someone else programs it to want, Treebeard has a point.
Current AI is good at making guesses, but does it distinguish between when its guesses were right or wrong and learn from its mistakes? Does its behavior change when it causes a departure rather than a fulfilment of a goal? And without independent motivation, how would it ever know the difference.
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ReplyDelete@ Der Oger
ReplyDelete“States can very well exist without nationalism”
But can nations exist without nationalism? Why should one prefer a state to a nation? Again, I think it goes back to abstractions vs embodiment. Your kind are enamored of disembodied abstractions, like AIs without bodies and states without nations. Other people are more oriented toward the body, and its analog in the political realm, the nation. The prejudice of the progressive is for the cerebral, abstract and disembodied; just about every progressive political position is a rejection of embodiment in favor of abstraction. It’s like a religious orientation, that we aren’t creatures of the flesh, but of spirit, who can transcend our own skins if we develop ourselves morally and keep the faith, or develop ourselves socially and serve the state, or develop advanced enough technology to upload ourselves into robots. But those are just, like, your opinions man -- quasi-religious beliefs the rest of us are free to reject.
Your beliefs are yours to have. The thoughts are free, or so a post-1848 song goes.
DeleteIt is when you act in accordance with your beliefs, which includes speech, when you might be judged differently.
DeleteYour kind are enamored of disembodied abstractions, like AIs without bodies and states without nations. Other people are more oriented toward the body, and its analog in the political realm, the nation.
Your mistake is to believe that a nation must be genetically pure.
Liberals can be loyalty to Enlightenment values and welcome anyone willing to live and let live by those values into the fold.
On the other side, even the type of nationalism you assert doesn't make the in-group monolithic. For example, in Fiddler on the Roof, before the Russian soldiers become the bad guys, would you expect the genetially pure Jewish community to live in harmony of the type in Star Trek: TNG. No, they still manage to cheat other Jews or reject the advances of other Jews. The fact that they share a religion and a culture doesn't keep them from interacting among themselves the way we do in diverse North America.