And now... some intellectual stuff, if that's what you are holding-out for!
And yes, for those of you who blithely use the terms 'left' and 'right' in politics, without actually knowing what they mean, here's one of maybe ten things you likely never knew, that you really, really ought to.
== How the left and right differently view the future's 'ordained' path.
...And why actual liberals think both 'teleologies' suck.
In fact, progressively improving, end-result teleology is a very recent epiphenomenon of Enlightenment Civilization – and almost entirely Western. Until these last 3 centuries, the pervasive historical teleologies were:
1. Successive, gradual decline, as in the Greek notions of golden, silver and iron ages.
2. More rapid, steep decline to hellish end times, followed by divine intervention, as in Christian doctrines.
3. Cyclical history – everything cycles back around, as in Hindu and Nordic lore – as well as Nazi and Confederate incantations. And now, a noxius recent mysticism called the Cult of the Fourth Turning.
All three of these ancient visions have deep roots in human psyche. All three were pushed hard by the powerful, from kings and lords to priests. And all three have long been core to what we’d now call ‘conservatism’, as they all preach at peasants: ‘Accept your place: don’t strive or even hope to improve the world.’
One exception – ironically clutched by 2000 years of persecuted Jews – was a notion that the world is improvable and that the Creator needs our assertive help to save it. Indeed, this usually-forlorn dream seems to have been what manifested in several grandsons-of-rabbis, like Sigmund Freud and especially Karl Marx.
And later – yes – in Isaac Asimov’s notions of ‘psychohistory,’ which inspired nerds across a very wide spectrum, ranging from Paul Krugman all the way to Shoko Asahara and Osama bin Laden.
Overall, it was a whole lot of grouchy-gloom to quench any glimmers of hope, during grouchy-gloomy times.
But things eventually changed, rousing a new, competing view of the time-flow of history. Inspired by the palpable progress coming out of industrial factories and modern medical science, we began to see a new kind of teleology. That of egalitarian ‘progress.’ Manifesting in either of two modes:
1. ...in moderate, incremental stages, as in the U.S. Revolution, and every American generation that followed…
2. …or else impatient transcendentalism – demanding immediate leaps to remaking humanity - as we saw in the French and then Russian and Chinese Revolutions.
Either way, this linear and ever-upward notion of historical directionality was a clear threat to the beneficiaries of older teleologies… ruling classes, who needed justification for continued obligate power. And especially excuses to repress potential rivals to their sons’ inheritance of power.
Thus it is no accident that all three of the more ancient motifs and views of ‘history’ - downward or cyclical - are being pushed, hard, by our current attempted worldwide oligarchic putsch. Each of them tuned to a different conservative constituency!
Will someone do up a nice meme on Caligula's horse, laughing at us?
* Another suggested meme about the dismal insipidity of the masks worn by ICE agents in these brownshirt-stle immigration raids.
1. ...in moderate, incremental stages, as in the U.S. Revolution, and every American generation that followed…
2. …or else impatient transcendentalism – demanding immediate leaps to remaking humanity - as we saw in the French and then Russian and Chinese Revolutions.
Either way, this linear and ever-upward notion of historical directionality was a clear threat to the beneficiaries of older teleologies… ruling classes, who needed justification for continued obligate power. And especially excuses to repress potential rivals to their sons’ inheritance of power.
Thus it is no accident that all three of the more ancient motifs and views of ‘history’ - downward or cyclical - are being pushed, hard, by our current attempted worldwide oligarchic putsch. Each of them tuned to a different conservative constituency!
For example: the Fourth Turning cult is especially rife among those Republicans who desperately cling to chants like: “I AM in favor of freedom & progress! I am!” Even though they are among the very ones causing the completely unnececessary 'crisis' that will then require rescue by a 'hero generation.'
(Side note: Are the impatient transcendentalists on "our side" of the current struggle - shouting for instant transformation(!!) - deeply harmful to their own cause, the way Robspierre and Mao were, to theirs? Absolutely. Angrily impatient with incrementalism, sanctimony junkies of the far-left were partly responsible for Trump v.2, by shattering the liberal coalition with verbal purity tests that drove away (temporarily, we hope) two millions Blacks, Hispanics and lower middle class whites.)
Why do I raise this point about teleologies of left and right yet again, even though I never get any traction with it, never ever prompting others to step back and look at such patterns?
Perhaps because new pattern aficionados are on the horizon! Indeed, there is always a hope that our new AI children will see what their cave-folk parents could not. And explain it to them.
== Some political notes ==
* Russian corvettes escort quasi-illegal Shadow tankers thru the English Channel while NATO navies daily thwart attempts to sabotage subsea pipes & data cables. Might Ukraine say: "Iran, NKorea & Gabon have openly Joined the RF waging war on us. Under the 300 year Rules of War, we may seize or sink enemy ships on the high seas. We've bought, equipped, flagged, manned and sent to the Atlantic Ukrainian navy ships to do that."
* Those shrugging-off the appointment of 22-year old Thomas Fugate as the top US counter-terrorism czar will have some 'splaining to do, when these moves - replacing competent professionals with Foxite shills - come home to roost. But I've already pointed out the glaring historical parallel: when the mad tyrant Caligula tested the Roman Senate by appointing - as Consul - his horse. No Senator stood up to that, or to C's sadist orgies or public snatch-strangulations.
Today it would take just 2 GOP Senators and 2 Reps, stepping up, to curb the insanity by half or more. Threats & rampant blackmail (check the male relatives of Collins & Murkowski) don't suffice to explain or excuse such craven betrayal across the GOP, since the first few to step up would be reckoned heroes, no matter what kompromat the KGB has on you.
Will someone do up a nice meme on Caligula's horse, laughing at us?
* Another suggested meme about the dismal insipidity of the masks worn by ICE agents in these brownshirt-stle immigration raids.
"Hey ICE masked-rangers, You think a mask suffices in 2025? When cameras can zoom into your iris? Bone structure and gait? (Keep a pebble in your shoe!) Anyway, that comrade (and fellow KGB puppet) next to you is recording every raid for his Squealer File. For plea bargaining when this all goes down."
What? You think "He'd never do that to me!"?
In poker, everyone knows who the patsy is. If you don't know, then it's you.
What? You think "He'd never do that to me!"?
In poker, everyone knows who the patsy is. If you don't know, then it's you.
== Finally, glorious Grand Dames of Sci Fi! ==
A pair of terrific speeches about science fiction. Newly- (and way-deservedly!)- installed Grand Master Nicola Griffith relates how SF encouraged her to believe that ancient injustices can be overcome, if first writers help readers believe it possible. The young MC of the event, Erin Roberts, was truly amazing, taking perspectives that were variously passionate, amusing and deeply insightful. Persuasive and yet not polemically fixated, she's the real deal that's needed now, more than ever.
"One exception – ironically clutched by 2000 years of persecuted Jews – was a notion that the world is improvable and that the Creator needs our assertive help to save it. Indeed, this usually-forlorn dream seems to have been what manifested in several grandsons-of-rabbis, like Sigmund Freud and especially Karl Marx. "
ReplyDeleteThe notion that there is progress in history, and we (people) have the responsibility to work to build a better world has been bubbling around in Jewish thought for quite a while ... not just the last century or so.
e.g. from one of the oldest post-biblical Jewish codes - "[Rabbi Tarfon - 1st cetury Rabbi] used to say: It is not your duty to finish the work, but neither are you at liberty to neglect it;"
One daily prayer that focuses on this notion "Let the time not be distant, O God, when all shall turn to You in love, when all the brokenness in our world is repaired by the work of our hands and our hearts," was from the 3rd century or earlier, but became popularized when it was used a martyr's song in the 12th century, by a group being burnt at the stake in France.
Will someone do up a nice meme on Caligula's horse, laughing at us?
ReplyDeleteHmm, there might be something to be done with the old Devon folk song 'Widecombe Fair', which starts with:
Tom Pearce, Tom Pearce, lend me your grey mare...
The mare is needed to take a large assemblage of people to Widecombe Fair, including the iconic 'Uncle Tom Cobbley'. Over several verses, we hear that the old grey mare isn't quite up to the task, and sadly expires along the way, to be become a ghostly apparition on the moors...
Tom Fugent, Tom Fugent....
One revolution rather than gradual reform was Napoleons Code Civil, introducted as areplacement of Roman Law and precendence decisions. It was introduced into the occupied territories in Europe and kept after the liberation. Most of European, South American and even Japanese Law is still running unser those principles, albeit with national variations.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of liberations, 1945 was surely not a gradual end of the Nazi system, though the cultural transition away from authoritarianism took one or two generations in the Western half.
So, I believe that sometimes, a system cannot be changed from within, and change needs external forces to occur, and sometimes even then changes take a generation to be anchored into the general society (for better or worse).
In other news: The social democrats voted with 100% to start the process to ban the AfD. First step among many. The process might take years and not be successful.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like Trump's big beautiful bill is going to pass the Senate.
ReplyDeleteSo we will pay for billionaire tax cuts by gutting Medicaid.
Good.
I will enjoy watching those racist MAGAs in Red State rural America lose their health care and dental as a result of voting for a vulgar dishonest corrupt racist rapist instead of a competent black woman.
It's what they deserve.
Its karma with a capital K.
Many won't care. Because that would mean taking responsibility for their actions, and authoritarians are Bad at that. They will simply find a new scapegoat.
DeleteSince most of us originally came to this blog over the years for a spot of optimism, thought you might like this one:
ReplyDeletePV installations over time vs predictions
World electricity usage is almost 30,000 terawatt hours.
DeleteCoal generates approximately 35% of this or 10,500 twh, or 1.2 tw
According to your chart, PV accounts for about 650 gw or 0.65 tw, with last years growth being about 300 gw.
Given that install PV, no matter what is rated, varies wildly with latitude, climate, daylight etc. it would be great if we could compare PV twh with coal twh
@Celt - As the title says, that chart shows NEW GW installed by year, not total production.
Deletewikipedia claims about 7% of total production from Solar in 2024 (a bit behind wind, but catching up fast). Referencing this site
And her is a bit of pessimism:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fdsxw88f5dh9f1.png
Faster than expected is running a meme in this sub, but there's evidence to back this meme as we are measuring faster rise in heat, CO2, ice melt. Currently on track at .27 degrees temp rise per decade and becoming higher and faster as seen from the chart. In March, a NASA analysis found that sea levels had risen faster than expected in 2024, in part because of a combination of melting glaciers and heat penetrating deeper into oceans, causing them to expand thermodynamically. Sea surface temperatures are rising faster than previously predicted, too, according to a study published in April by researchers at the National Center for Earth Observation in Britain. In May, a paper analyzing data from a NASA satellite found that this imbalance had grown faster than expected, more than doubling in the past two decades and becoming nearly twice as large as it was previously predicted to be. Buckle up! Exponential curvature in effect
Non paywall NYT article: https://archive.is/jknBm
Teleology and symbolism are linked in romanticism. A powerful motivator, justifier, and aspiration-token in the human mind that explains a lot of history. An example of this link in a 'good' sense might be FDR's favourite little piece of Canada, Campobello Island.
ReplyDeleteGlad I decided to shrug off Oger's occasional spasms, because he is historically erudite. (Well, he's not a history-ignoramus American.) And he raises an interesting point about Napoleon. He inherited the chaos of a fully-fevered transcendentalist revolution and hence was in a position to pick and choose which elements were sane increments to keep and which mad excesses to brutally quash. And many elements of what became the Napoleonic Code had already been debated and legislated by earlier revolutionary assemblies.
ReplyDelete(To be clear, I prefer the Anglo legal tradition of the Judge being quasi neutral, overseeing adversarial competition between lawyers, instead of relying on the judge to be master interogator.)
N truly was a child of Revolution and considered himself to be savior of the Revolution. Alas, he became surrounded by flatterers with resulting poisons of the mind. His two great mistakes - betraying Spain for the sake of his brother and invading RUssia - were unnecessary, unforced errors. He could have offered the Czar Crimea and Constantinople in exchange for Polish and Finnish freedom and ending serfdom, then sent French troops to Athens in warm weather, and there'd be nothing Britain could do about it.
We'd all be speaking French right now.