Clutching Electoral College straws? I rank the (complicated) odds.

Seriously? You have hopes? Oh, for certain there are plenty of sci fi-ish scenarios to ponder, before the Electoral College votes are tallied on December 19.  Scroll down to get my odds-handicapping of all the EC gambits! But first, much-needed context:

Okay, so a lawsuit filed by two Colorado presidential electors aimed to free them from penalties for defecting. A federal judge then ruled that Colorado's electors "must" vote for Hillary Clinton. 
     But "must"... or else what? Face a tiny fine? 
     Backed up by both the Constitution and the Founders own words -- and precedent, with past defectors going unpunished -- nothing prevents electors doing whatever they like. Which is both heartening and scary. And (as we'll see) likely irrelevant.

The Electors Trust is publicly offering both discreet legal advice and to pay any legal costs incurred by such defectors… who I'm sure are enduring terrible denunciations and threats, as well.

      Now a bipartisan collection of over twenty Electors (and growing) request security clearance so they can see the evidence that Russia meddled in the 2016 election to get Trump elected. 

(GOP Electors! At least hint you're wavering. Demand an "assurance call" from Trump himself. You'll get one! Plus maybe dinner: do you like frog's legs?)

To all of you blinking in astonishment, over an obscure constitutional relic that has only caused trouble - till now - but might have value after all, well, Alexander Hamilton, in the Federalist Papers, said one purpose of the EC is to keep foreign powers from capturing the presidency. 
       Another passage extolls the EC to deal with dogmatist candidates who are outrageously unqualified. 
      Wow. What prescient Founders.

== The Siberian Candidate ==

OK. Just a bit more context before getting the the odds.

Declaring last week that "I'm, like, a smart person" and refusing security briefings, DT exacerbated all the drama with remarkable lack of self-control. He had only to lay low and say peaceful things, for all 'electoral college gambits' to be moot. Think. If he cannot keep it lidded now, how about when all leashes have slipped?

  

Heck, is a CIA report necessary? Could the Kremlin have picked a more favorable U.S. cabinet than Trump has, e.g. Rex Tillerson for Secretary of State, who received lavish honors - and billions in favored contracts - directly from the Putin regime and who hangs with Russian klepto-oligarchs? Paul Manafort was a longtime consultant to Viktor Yanukovich, the Russian-backed Ukrainian president who was overthrown in 2014, when Ukraine swung westward, the event for which Putin swore revenge on the Democratic leaders Obama and Clinton. The list is so extensive, we need no "CIA report."

Would any 20th Century sci fi author - even on LSD - have foreseen the bootlicking devotion of today's right wing to Moscow? 

The Siberian Candidate, indeed. 

Ah, but all of that is prelude and scene setting.  Today's topic is wagering the odds.   We have a betting pool over how many elector-defectors there will be. And given all we've seen, it ought to be a tsunami. But, although I do expect some, even a large number won't matter as much as folks hope. 

== All the possible scenarios - barring an asteroid strike ==

Asteroids*. Yeah. At this point, something biblical almost sounds merciful. But all right, since many have asked… here’s my forecast:

1- What are the odds that 37+ Republican electors will demonstrate awesome maturity, sanity and patriotism by switching to Hillary Clinton on the 19th? (She might cleverly increase the odds by offering olive branches - as I described in my previous posting - and perhaps even promising to resign, after a year.)

But sorry. There's no chance of this, whatsoever.

2- What are the odds that 37+ Republican electors might demonstrate some maturity, sanity and patriotism - and ad-hoc organization - by choosing another Republican? Perhaps elevating John Kasich or Paul Ryan for top-three consideration by the House? I give that a generous 15%! Then subtract 5% because of my own “jinx factor,” whenever I want something. 

3- That 37+ Republican electors will demonstrate at least a little maturity, sanity and patriotism by independently and separately or impulsively abstaining or defecting to some random protest person – disorganized but still throwing it to the House? This one I give 20% (minus 10% jinx.)

4- Okay, now it gets interesting. If #2 happens: say Ohio’s delegation goes en masse for Kasich, or Utah’s republican electors find they can’t vote Trump without alcohol, or a cabal goes for Ryan, will the House then actually replace Trump?  

Alas, I give this almost no chance. 

Oh, Ryan could deliver one fantastic and historic speech, if he had the patriotism and guts. And if he read my Contrary Brin posting before this one.

But he knows the very next day Trump would unleash a veritable tsunami of Timothy McVeighs, across the land. We'd cope! With historic courage and triumph over treason. We are made of the same stuff as the Greatest Generation. But I doubt that GOP reps in the House - the laziest and most cowardly in the history of the republic - will have the cojones.

Give it 10% (of the already low 10% in case #2).

5- And if the House decides, based on #3? Just take my answer to #4 and cut it in half. (That's 10% of 10%, again, for those keeping score.)

6- Far more likely, if either #2 or #3 were to happen, and Trump falls below 270, is that the GOP-controlled House of Representatives will admonish Donald Trump, then make him president anyway. Perhaps extracting from him some changes in his cabinet or a promise not to make enemies lists. (Like asking a shark not to bite.) None of those promises or changes would affect the interests of Koch-Murdoch-Goldman puppeteers, though the Moscow strings might be made less blatant. This I deem plausible… though remember it starts with the low probability events in #2 & #3. 

7- Side bet. If #2 or #3 happen, maybe one or two defectors will proclaim the truth -- that the GOP has gone crazy. But most of the defecting electors will still vote in Mike Pence as VP, to prove their party loyalty. 

But even if we suppose Pence also fell below 270, he would still likely be chosen as Vice President by the Senate. Unless three GOP moderate senators were to actually show some courage. We'll never know, because it won't come to that.

Only... might some electors flip ballots? Voting Pence for President and Trump for VP? The perfect way to both do your duty and deflect angry fanatics! Just tell the screamers: "But I did vote for them!"  

It's the closest thing to a possible win-win for conscience-wracked GOP electors... and hence it will never occur to them.**

There are even more far-out sci fi scenarios. I got a million of em. But I won't offer that list of weird possibilities here. They belong in the genre of fantasy. As does all of 2016.

8- Now let’s speculate! Suppose major proof of cheating emerges, not just Russian meddling but also voting machine fraud. (Billionaires: it's still not too late to offer my Henchman's Prize! Ten million dollars for a Diebold defector could save American democracy.) 

Now further imagine that John Roberts and Samuel Alito might - conceivably – remember to be more Americans than Republicans. Then we could see something unprecedented. Not the fantasy nursed by some – installing Hillary Clinton - but maybe an election do-over.  In which case, I would urge Clinton to bow out. Get the DNC to nominate Biden and Bernie. Or the nation goes up in flames. Odds of any of this happening? Almost zero.  

Face it. Roberts and Alito aren’t ready yet to face their duty. Oh, but they will. A time may come when those two become (choke) the bulwark (alas) of everything we hold dear.

== And it all boils down to... ==

After all this, what are our chances of avoiding misery, in 40 days? 

Forget about it. Gird yourselves for a fully fulminating, multi-year phase of the U.S. Civil War, in which all the Americans who actually know stuff and believe there are "facts" will have to wake up, grit their teeth, and win-or-die. 

Literally, because we – the scientists, teachers, doctors, statisticians, engineers, meteorologists, journalists, professors, economists, civil servants, intelligence officers, tech entrepreneurs, law professionals, skilled labor and all the others declared to be enemies by Fox -- could yet find ourselves up against walls. 

I exaggerate? Look up Steve Bannon’s open and repeated admiration of Lenin, Stalin -- and Darth Vader.)

Still, the question we will face, on Inauguration day, after all the clutched straws float away, is this: are we a nation that will put up with thin-skin screeching, enemies lists, abuse of office, foreign control, vengeance vendettas and Delirium Tremens outbursts for a complete 4 years? I am about to wager… no. Which brings us to:

9- Might Paul Ryan and the House – as well as Alito and Roberts -- come around, well before the 2018 midterms? Facing a looming train wreck, I’ve already bet that they will reach their limit of DT outrages and begin a process of removal. 

But cleverly, Ryan will first say to the Democrats “you put forward articles of impeachment and we’ll provide just enough Republican votes for it to pass.” Thus, they will aim for a win-win-win.  A fresh face for the midterms, a presidential puppet obedient to Murdoch and the Kochs (though perhaps less-so to Russia)… 

...plus ensuring that DT’s enraged followers will blame the democrats for his ouster. As I said, a perfect win-win-win for Ryan and the GOP oligarchy. Of all our straw-clutching scenarios, this one actually seems plausible. (Unless DT has blackmail on Pence.) 

I give it 30%+

And hence my final forecast:

10- The Democrats… will their political lobotomization be over by then? Will they fall for that trap? 

Or will they have the guts to say: “Do your own dirty work, Paul. We will provide a few votes, if you need them to clean up your own mess. But this is all on you.”

What odds do I give that the Dems will ever be that smart?

Practically zero.

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* Asteroids. Republicans hate em. You can expect all asteroid-related NASA missions to be canceled, in favor of joining Russia, China, India and Europe scooting back to repeating Apollo-style landings on the almost-useless Moon.  Another topic, alas. 

** Heck DT’d find being VP way more fun than the Oval Office.