This posting will be hurried, geting it in before the final debate. Like the rest of you, I am both
fascinated-addicted and so, so, so eager for it to end.
First off, Trump challenged Clinton to take a ‘blood test” before the next debate. She should reply:
“Sure Donald, we’ll both do that. But in return, you have to accept one of MY challenges! You (Trump) must appoint five sages to a fact-checking commission you’d accept as non-partisan. Including fact checking claims of electoral fraud. I’ll appoint five and Sandra Day O’Conner can appoint five.”
If HC did that, she’d corner him, even if he refused! Refusing would look awful. And he’d know that accepting would eviscerate him.
“Sure Donald, we’ll both do that. But in return, you have to accept one of MY challenges! You (Trump) must appoint five sages to a fact-checking commission you’d accept as non-partisan. Including fact checking claims of electoral fraud. I’ll appoint five and Sandra Day O’Conner can appoint five.”
If HC did that, she’d corner him, even if he refused! Refusing would look awful. And he’d know that accepting would eviscerate him.
== An October Surprise? ==
All my life there’s been talk of October Surprises, before any big U.S. election. Ronald
Reagan pulled one on Jimmy Carter and there were others in the small to
intermediate range. Today, the Trumpists
are proclaiming such timing for the Access Hollywood “locker room” video and
subsequent accusers of Trump's sexual predation. (See: Donald Trump self-sabotage gambit in Salon.)
Certainly, Julian Assange’s WikiLeaks collusion with Russian state hackers is aimed at knifing Hillary Clinton. Will there be more?
Certainly, Julian Assange’s WikiLeaks collusion with Russian state hackers is aimed at knifing Hillary Clinton. Will there be more?
In this election cycle? Count on it! Assange is
doubtless saving the worst for November. And Trump is already railing that the
Iraqi assault on Mosul has been timed to give Barack Obama a big victory over
ISIS, just before the election. (DT spent minutes in the 2nd debate
pre-criticizing the Mosul assault for not being done ‘by surprise’ and thus
allowing ISIS leaders to escape… proving that he has the military expertise of
a 9-year old video gamer.)
Seriously, buckle your seatbelts. There will be revelations of electoral hacks
and sexual matters and foreign meddling and maybe a spilled Trump tax
return. These are Heinlein’s “crazy
years.”
Oh… one
of you in the comments section suggested a scenario: “that the "Jail Hillary" bit was a stroke of genius! Not for the election but for after, when the
Donald's crows come home to roost. Rape, tax evasion, fraud .... Only now all of the
"sensible" voices have said that you can't jail the losing candidate.
Donald now has a "get out of jail free card" -
just before he needs to use it.”
Hm.
== Cheating at the polls? Really? And WHO will do it? ==
If the election is rigged, who is doing the rigging?
Trump never says. But note: in most battleground states – those he and HC are fighting over – elections are run by Republican politicians or appointees. In Florida, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Utah, the chief elections officer of the state is a Republican. (In Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Missouri it’s a Democrat.)
Trump never says. But note: in most battleground states – those he and HC are fighting over – elections are run by Republican politicians or appointees. In Florida, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Utah, the chief elections officer of the state is a Republican. (In Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Missouri it’s a Democrat.)
Republican-run states do far more gerrymandering and voter suppression.
The voting machines that do not offer audit ability with paper-backups are
supplied by companies with GOP connections. So if there’s any fire under this
smoke, Trump supporters should aim their ire at the GOP establishment.
Indeed, the presidential race is too closely watched for anyone to risk
sneaky tactics. But I would bet you a dollar and a swallowed-bug that there
will be tons of cheating down at the level no one is watching – state Assembly
and Congressional races, where the Fox cabal is sweating real bullets, right
now. (More on this, below.)
== How Might Trump Pull it out? ==
That’s the question some trumpist shill asked on Quora, in
what must be the brashest and most delightfully impudent political move I have
seen. Almost no one on Quora supports
Trump (since they have curiosity and ask questions.) Yet this prize challenge
dares folks to compete (for a measly $250) offering the best suggestion how the
GOP candidate might improve his flagging chances. And plenty could not help themselves! They answered.
I did too! * Though I deem it nearly impossible that DT will
actually follow my advice. And here it is:
First and foremost, Donald Trump should stop with the damned rallies. The
rallies have destroyed him. They cater to his frail-huge ego, feeding it with
cheers for every outrageous thing he says, encouraging him to both ramp up the
outrageousness and to gather a spectacularly unrealistic view the U.S. population,
convincing himself that the narrow slice of Americans who attend his rallies is
actually representative of the nation.
Had it not been for the rallies, DT would likely
have done the expected veer to center.
He could have - as a 'maverick’ - stunned us all and destabilized
Clinton by behaving well at the debates and by abruptly dropping the most-insane GOP stances inflicted on the party by
Murdoch-Ailes-Fox.
He could have dropped: (1) the war on science, (2)
climate denialism, and (3) Supply Side never-once-right-voodoo economics.
Back in the spring he showed some hints he might!
Had he done this, he’d have done a judo grab of moderates and college educated
whites and even some women and some minorities, while keeping most of the rest
of his conservatism.
This would also
have done the nation a great service, by trashing those three insanities
forever. Even in losing, he would have been credited for that.
Too late. His addiction is now in full fury. The tougher things get, the more he relies
on the drug high he gets at the rallies, which in turn encourage him to
behave in public and at debates in the same way that gets cheers at those testosterone-fests.
Watch one some time: you’ll see an addiction, playing
itself out. (I can relate - slightly - as a public speaker. Audience response
is a huge high.) Alas, he is not just torching himself and the GOP; he is also
stoking maybe 15% of the population - his most zealous followers - with a
frothing-volcanic hate that we’ve not seen since Timothy McVeigh, or perhaps the
1930s Nuremberg rallies.
They share his feedback loop. They will rage that he could only have
lost by rigging. They will - at his urging - turn this civil war hot. Except
for the rallies, he might have had a lining that was silver, and not flaming
horror.
* (Go to that quora contest and vote for me! I'll spend the prize on a party at the 2018 worldcon! ;-)
* (Go to that quora contest and vote for me! I'll spend the prize on a party at the 2018 worldcon! ;-)
== Back
to the Cheat Below ==
Time to reiterate a point that no one else – I
promise you – is making. Paul Ryan is discrediting Donald Trump’s allegations that the election will be “rigged.” And yes, that serves Ryan well, because it
makes him look like an adult next to the tantrum-threatening Donald. Ryan is
lining himself up for 2020. And yet… the
sci fi thriller side of me has another explanation. That Ryan is pooh-poohing the likelihood that
the PRESIDENTIAL election will be rigged… so that no one will look to closely
at the election he really cares about…
…which is the equally important panoply of races
for Congress and state assembly, all over the nation! Think about it. Assume for a moment that the voting machines
in many red states - which have no paper receipt systems for precinct count
auditing (paper-audits exist in most blue states) - can be altered almost at-will. And
why not? Without auditing, what is to stop the mostly-republican owners of
voting machine companies from having a back door and using it?
Then they will not use that power to try to fix an already lost election
for the White House. They do not want scrutiny or attention focused lower down. Even
though those lower down races are where the real power in the nation (and
corruption) can be found.
== Why
evangelicals support Trump? ==
Given that he’s a philandering, twice divorced gambling lord with mob
ties, who has ripped off his employees and contractors and bragged about
abusing women… there truly is no other explanation for evangelical support than “he hates the same enemies that I hate!” In this exploration-article, it becomes clear that’s why fundamentalist Christians are
rallying to Trump.
There is also an apocalyptic current. “For
Trump, it’s not morning in America, it’s just a few seconds before midnight on the doomsday clock…. He’s been slouching toward
just about every kind of Armageddon imaginable, except the genuine planetary
ones that are — or should be — almost unavoidable these days.”
(In the Trump-Ryan vision of America, fervidly believed at those nuremberg-style rallies - "crime is running wild, inner cities are war zones, and hordes of violent immigrants are pouring across our open border. In reality, murder is at a historic low, we’re seeing a major urban revival and net immigration from Mexico is negative. And the counterfactuals go on and on...)
His “un-Christ-like” behavior contrasts with Clinton’s --
a church-going United Methodist who has long ties to
leaders in the evangelical community. She taught Sunday school and, as a
senator, attended weekly prayer breakfasts. ‘But white evangelicals’ anger toward
Clinton, while at a fever pitch now, has been building for decades.’
The central pretext
is, of course, abortion. Though here, yet again, the journalist misses a key
point. HC has repeatedly said that her aim is to keep abortion, “safe, legal
and rare.” The argument is that liberal actions like Sex Education,
availability of contraceptives and family planning empower women and girls to
control their choices and outcomes, resulting in fewer abortions. The success
of this approach is supported by facts and decisive statistics. For example,
wherever the emphasis has shifted to “abstinence only” programs, the rates of
teen sex, teen pregnancy, STDs and domestic violence go up. All have gone down in
Blue America.
Refusal to face
such blatant cause-and-effect outcomes comparison has become a hallmark of the
re-ignited Confederacy’s culture war, especially the War on Science.
When confronted by
the success of liberal programs at reducing the overall number of abortions, they respond with a purist stance, that “even one is too many.” Indeed, that
might have been at least philosophically
defensible, if it weren’t that every single anti-abortion measure taken in Red
States – across the last decade – has been about making abortion incrementally
more difficult for women experiencing a life choice.
In other words, using supply side methods to reduce the number
and rate… as opposed to the democrats’ approach to achieving the same end, via
the demand side.
In other words, using supply side methods to reduce the number
and rate… as opposed to the democrats’ approach to achieving the same end, via
the demand side.
(This
supply-side/demand-side aspect just occurred to me! You punctilious checkers out there, have you
seen anyone ever raise this direct comparison between approaches to abortion
policy and the two parties’ diametrically opposite economics?
(As usual, the demand side approach seems to work, while supply side reduces to an insanely cruel methodology that has not ever – even once – correlated with reality.)
(As usual, the demand side approach seems to work, while supply side reduces to an insanely cruel methodology that has not ever – even once – correlated with reality.)
Note – though – the
core hypocrisy. To maintain purism as
a defense against the superior practical effects of liberal policy –
incrementally reducing the overall number of abortions by educating and
empowering women. Yet the pro-lifers have put forward only incremental means to
make abortion more difficult, accomplishing nothing.
No. This is
entirely about symbolism. The U.S. right once had an element that liked objective
reality and pragmatism (e.g. post-1968 Barry Goldwater, often Richard Nixon and
(at times) Ronald Reagan). Now it is 100% about symbolism, (exemplified by the GOP Congress obsessing on
the naming of ships) and never on negotiated politics.
Symbolism-obsession
also served the 1860s Confederacy well, for a while. At first. Till the America
of science, pragmatism, negotiation and adulthood woke up and discovered its
resolve. That same awakening is happening now. So dig this, dear red-neighbors. We will save the nation and
planet and civilization for you
folks. In fact, I’ll bet that deep-down,
it’s what you’ve been counting on, all along.
== A final direct appeal to Hillary Clinton ==
Seriously Madam Secretary, is your only aim to win
the election and live in the White House again?
Maybe nominate a couple of Supreme Court justices? If so, I'll still vote for you, but I am
disappointed. Because just running against
Donald Trump will poison your term in several ways.
First, pundits and historians… certainly
Republicans … will attribute your victory to the toxicity of your
opponent. They'll rationalize that you
have no mandate and that the GOP deserves to come roaring back, in 2018, after
shrugging off the ‘Trump Illness.’
It’s time to stop cozying up to fence sitters,
hoping to peel away a few more presidential votes. All that will accomplish is
to leave Trump-averse republicans pleased to split and vote for down-ticket GOP
politicians. If you want your presidency to mean anything, you must:
- Cite
Ronald Reagan, who famously (and effectively) said: "I did not leave
the Democratic party, the democratic party left me."
That was brilliant, effective and people remember it. Use that! You can say: "I did not agree with Reagan about that. But there’s no way Reagan would be a Republican today. Blatantly the Republican Party leaders have abandoned all sense. They have ‘left’ Ronald Reagan and they have left *you*.”
That was brilliant, effective and people remember it. Use that! You can say: "I did not agree with Reagan about that. But there’s no way Reagan would be a Republican today. Blatantly the Republican Party leaders have abandoned all sense. They have ‘left’ Ronald Reagan and they have left *you*.”
- then deliver a zinger: "Did any of you
notice at the recent Republican convention that they did not even mention the names of any GOP leaders
between Reagan and Ryan? Bush, Bush,
Cheney, Rumsfeld, Hastert, DeLay, Ailes… " (Emphasize Hastert and Ailes! Recently-confirmed sexual predators.)
Yes, yes, I know you've been cozying up to the Bushes, lately, hoping to sway more ‘moderate’ republicans to defect. Stop it! They are of no use to you. Not compared to the possible chance of getting their grip off of Congress.)
Yes, yes, I know you've been cozying up to the Bushes, lately, hoping to sway more ‘moderate’ republicans to defect. Stop it! They are of no use to you. Not compared to the possible chance of getting their grip off of Congress.)
- Talk about the sheer laziness of GOP Congresses! For 20 of the last 22 years, they have
hardly met in session at all, or even held any hearings, except those that uselessly and futilely and
obsessively hounded you! Seriously. Laziness is a charge
that (1) is off-axis from usual politics, (2) is blatantly true, and (3) is a
devastating attack on their character.
- Talk about the GOP war on science, education, medicine and every other profession that
deals with facts and knowledge.
Seriously. Stop making this about Trump! That case has been made and 3/5 of Americans
are sold on it. Time to move
forward! It is time to get moderate
conservatives to leave the undead elephant.
You can do this. Show us leadership and boldness. In the next debate… mention the Republican Party! It has ‘left’ America.
You can do this. Show us leadership and boldness. In the next debate… mention the Republican Party! It has ‘left’ America.
=====
* PS. Some have realized how Reagan could be used against the hijackers of American conservatism.









