Why we have some goodwill around the globe, rooting for us to overcome (again) our recurring demons... And the real danger when we're hit by that coming 9/11 Reichstag Fire.

As the Putinists continue wrecking all U.S. institutions and turning the world (including longtime allies) against us, it's important to recall how much goodwill Trump and his ilk must eliminate, before that promise to Moscow can be fulfilled. Of course all empires are disliked, but elsewhere I describe how George Marshall, FDR, Truman, Ike etc. set things up so that humanity would have its best 80 years, ever. Better than all of prior human history combined. Resulting in the *least hated* empire. That is... until now.

Okay, Pax Americana will never be the same after Trump. And maybe that's good. Other centers of Enlightenment are stepping up. But when the Union finally wins this latest phase 9 of Civil War betrayal by our idiot Hyde-Side neighbors, watch the joy burst forth around the globe... and across all Americans of goodwill and sapience. 

Want evidence for that assertion? Amid our self-reproach, Let's remember times when America did take brave steps toward light. There are others, on this planet, who remember, as well. And you need the gift that I am about to give you.

This song by Michel Sardou is called "Les Ricains" which means, more or less, "The Yankees." Here are the lyrics, to read along.

Les Ricains by Michel Sardou

If the Ricans weren't there

Si les Ricains n'étaient pas là

You would all be in Germania

Vous seriez tous en Germanie

To speak of I don't know what

A parler de je ne sais quoi

To greet I do not know who

A saluer je ne sais qui

Of course years have passed

Bien sûr les années ont passé

The rifles changed hands

Les fusils ont changé de mains

Is this a reason to forget

Est-ce une raison pour oublier

That one day we needed it?

Qu'un jour on en a eu besoin?

A guy from Georgia

Un gars venu de Georgie

Who cared a lot about you

Qui se foutait pas mal de toi

Came to die in Normandy

Est v'nu mourir en Normandie

One morning when you weren't there

Un matin où tu n'y étais pas

Of course years have passed

Bien sûr les années ont passé

We became friends

On est devenus des copains

To the friendly of the shot

A l'amicale du fusillé

They say they fell for nothing

On dit qu'ils sont tombés pour rien

If the Ricans weren't there

Si les Ricains n'étaient pas là

You would all be in Germania

Vous seriez tous en Germanie

To speak of I don't know what

A parler de je ne sais quoi

To greet I do not know who

A saluer je ne sais qui

Got you a little misty-eyed?

Even better is this version... a huge crowd of French people cheering and singing along. Capable of gratitude.  They know that this American Pax, for all of its faults, prevented vastly worse. That things could have been a hell, a curse. That every other era of dismal human history was worse. 

And if we do not blow it now, we have a chance to be recalled by our heirs - organic and cyber - the true humans - as the very best that cavemen could be. Crude, bestial primitives who tried nonetheless to lift our gaze and those around us. To something better.

Listen and read along. We need this now. Right now!

Try. I dare you not to tear up, in gratitude for this gratitude.

          == But we have a tough job keeping that promise == 

Alas, the Kremlin boyz and confederates and murder sheiks have the upper hand for now and they and stick together. 

Latest example: Trump has issued special exemptions letting Putin sell oil, evading world sanctions for his murderously criminal invasion of Ukraine. Fox News is a 5th column of the relabeled KGB's propaganda Comintern that has used blackmail to take over the entire Republican Party.

Amid the hooplah over the Strait of Hormuz -- ("YOU block it? No, *I* get to block it!") -- Trump has all along made offers to the Iranian Republican Guard and Religious Police etc. to make deals with him, in exchange for them kissing his ring. 

It's already happened! In Venezuela, Argentina, El Salvador etc. - and possibly soon in Cuba (DT shouts "They're next!") - the aim is never, ever to establish democracy or to liberate citizens from their oppressors.

The pattern is perfectly that of mafiosi and that of an ex casino mogul. Taking over another gang's territory by decapitating it's top capo, then getting allegiance (and resulting vigorish) from the sub-capos of the gang that's left in place. 

This is now so blatant that no other theory is remotely tenable. LOOK at this image of Maduro's VP Rodriguez, all spiffed and glammed-up and grin-hugging Trump's consigliere, eager to serve... and to send Trump personally a shipment of gold! And nothing for the Venezuelan people.

Oh, and Miami crime families will slip in atop the Castro power structure in Cuba. 

This is a Mafia gang and the capo di tutti capi is named Vlad. 

His other goal? Riling up enough enemies (who had been quiescent since Obama killed Osama) to deliver us into another 9/11, that he imagines might save him, this fall. Which explains why he fired over half of our counter-terrorism experts. Now why would anyone do that? 

Put it all together folks. 

== The real purpose of the coming Reichstag Fire / 911 strike ==

Everyone will be able to see that the calamity will be a blatant set-up in order to justify declaring an emergency and martial law and to cancel the November election's likely torching of the entire treasonous GOP. 

It won't work, for that reason. Because we all can see it.

Only there i an added, underlying danger that I see discussed nowhere.

Go back to 1933. The purpose of the Reichstag Fire was to excuse the Nazi arrest of dozens of opposition parliament members. And thus, the parliament could never hold a quorum vote for new elections or a new Chancellor.

The lesson?

YOU U.S. SENATORS AND REPRESENTATIVES: START UPPING YOUR SECURITY RIGHT NOW. 

The Roberts Court has already said Trump could off you, as an 'official act,' to prevent impeachment/conviction. So talk it over. Upgrade practices. Have contingency plans. Grow eyes in the back of your heads. Do it now.

The rest of you? 

When the calamity strikes, get out there and chant "Reichstag Fire!" 

And one more word to show our intent:

"Appomattox!"

== Finally, my qualifications as a history expert! ==

Well, AI has some legit uses. One fan/reader searched the paleontology databases and found this historical record, a bit fuzzy, from the Paleolithic. It shows my legit ancestral claims are valid!

 

Space news! Artemis and the planned 'base'... Slashing NASA science... and no, Avi. It wasn't ET.

Well, well. I'm glad the Artemis crew made it home safe! And yes, this updated/repeat of 1968's Apollo 8 sure was a bit bigger and spiffier!*  

Is it churlish of me to grumble that it launched atop a sewn-together Saturn/Shuttle hybrid rocket that has no future? 

A rocket that did accomplish its main goal -- 30 years of grift by 20 senators for home state contractors? Our $100+ billions spent on a long-obsolete white elephant that nudged 1970s technology forward by millimeters and soon will be abandoned forever?

Money that might instead have been spent on hundreds of enabling technologies that we'll need, in order to actually build a working moon base? We don't have any of them, alas. Almost any. Though the 'plans' currently issued sure are lovely artist conceptions! Without the slightest meat or plausibility. 

(If you are curious about some of those potential and even plausible technologies, drop by the site of NASA's Innovative & Advanced Concepts program - (NIAC)

But let's look at the bright side! The mission was a terrific show! it re-triggered our fond dreams for a while, distracting us from a dismally terrifying year.*  

Alas, I can't be a pollyanna for long. Just look ====> at a long list of science that's being slashed in order to pay for a repeat of Apollo 11. Not just science (the enemy) but also tools we need in order to nail down the effects of climate change. All supposedly in order to pay for another footprint stunt on a plain of poison dust.

Justifications? Don't you dare utter the incantation-mantra "lunar resources.' Or 'Helium Three!!'  I will so smack you.

(* Just like Apollo 8, Artemis II launched in a time of wretched, even unprecedented tension. Indeed, this is the first year that I have seen that rivals in fateful dread that terrifying 1968. 

(But we did persevere past that one. And we'll do it again.)
 

== No, Avi. they're all just (interstellar) comets ==

I restrained myself from commenting on the third ‘hyperbolic-interstellar object’ that was caught plummeting into the solar system, some months back. But sorry, I have an itch to scratch and it must be said.

Yes, these cosmic visitors appear to have some differences from our home grown solar system comets. You would expect iceballs born in a different protostellar nebula to have chemical variations.

Example? Nickel was detected in the coma of interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS, far more of it than in our own, home-grown comets, plus several other oddities that offer clues to another system formation, near another star. Though it still acted generally like a comet.  And hence… no…  the third-discovered hyperbolic interstellar object, streaking into the Solar System was not a probe by little silver guys! 

Alas, of course, Harvard Professor Avi Loeb leaped to attribute any unusual trait to “it’s aliens!” Though as a comet expert, I demur. (My doctoral dissertation was about comets. as was a1985 novel, Heart of the Comet.) And even the logic is so weird. (A 'sneak-spy' probe that announces itself garishly and has no plausible path to achieve any spying? Ummm)

 Never mind that implausible silliness. Soon, it's likely that the Vera Rubin Telescope will reveal many more of these visitors. And from their spectra alone, we'll learn a lot!

 == But will we ever get to study one up close? ==

It’s hard to study such interlopers.  They are, after all, sweeping in at interstellar "hyperbolic' speeds! Scott Manley explains it well (Though confusing two orbital mechanics terms.)

What Scott didn't know about is the Linares Statite. This was among my favorite projects during the 12 years I served on the advisory external council of NASA's Innovative & Advanced Concepts program - (NIAC).  I deem the Linares Statite to be by far the best way to have probes ready to swoop past the sun and then streak ahead to meet objects like this. Using NO FUEL. Have a look.  

The Linares Statite would use a big solar sail to hover on sunlight, way out at the asteroid belt, without any Keplerian lateral velocity -- (It does take some explaining) -- ready to fold its wings and dive like a peregrine falcon past the sun to catch up with almost anything, such as another 'Oumuamua interstellar visitor. 

Slava Turyshev's Project Sundiver has shown that you get a lot of speed if you snap open the sail at nearest solar passage. In fact it is the best way to streak to the Kuiper Belt. Or even beyond!

And that's the sort of thing we could be doing.

      == Elsewhere in the solar system ==

Over the years, astronomers have spotted holes and large pits dotting Venus’ surface, suggesting the existence of lava tubes. Venusian lava tubes may be especially large and arrayed along volcano rims; they may be some of the most extensive subsurface cavities in the solar system. 

And this relates to plans for either moon or Mars bases. Because we know of many such pits in both places and one imagines they might be perfect places for human-occupied bases!  Since they offer safety from radiation and from thermal cycles...

... and sending robots to explore these sites (and leave little flags to prevent rivals claiming them) would have made a lot of sense. Instead of raving about 'lunar bases' without the needed techs or even a clue where the best places would be.

     == Addenda to give hope (a little) in interesting times ==

According to Peter Diamandis: "Renewables just crossed 49.4% of global electricity capacity. 

"Let me say that again: nearly half of all electricity generation capacity on Earth is now renewable. Solar drove 75% of new additions, bringing the total to 5.15 terawatts. We’re at the halfway mark and the curve is accelerating. 

"This isn’t some future projection. This is today. The energy transition is already here."  

Pakistan is now generating most of its energy via solar. Solar is exploding across Africa. Several European nations achieve total-sustainables several days a year. 

 And want some irony? TEXAS is gradually getting used to the fact that abundant wind and sunlight are making it the leading state in producing sustainable energy! Non-carbon energy generation that the state's politicians fought desperately to sabotage, in Washington DC. Irony abounds.

Diamandis adds: "The average price of a two-carat lab-grown diamond has fallen below $1,000: down 80% since January 2020. Compare that to a natural diamond at $22,000 to $28,000 for the same size."

Peter has long lists of cool tech news to support his evangelical notions about a looming age of abundance, in which we'll have to devise new kinds of VAT taxes just to prevent major deflation! (Thus funding Universal Basic Income (UBI) that he and many others propose.)

I go into a lot of that -- not quite as giddy optimistic -- in my new book on artificial intelligence... ailien minds!

   

               ailien minds

 

    Optimists foretell a golden age of Al-managed abundance. 

    Doomers cry: vast cyber-minds will crush old style humanity! ... or make us irrelevant. 

    Meanwhile, geniuses fostering the artificial intelligence boom. cling to clichés rooted in our dismal past... or else in cheap sci-fi. 

    Is there still time for perspective? 

- on 4 billion years of evolution 

- or 60 centuries of wretched feudalism 

- or how we handled prior tech revolutions 

- or mistakes that keep getting repeated 

- or ways this time may be different?  

    From Al-driven unemployment to deceitful images, to hallucinating LLMs and tools for tyrants... to potential wondrous gifts by machines of loving grace... come see future paths that evade the standard ruts.

Ideas for when we get out of this mess.

 "We used to say facts don't care about your feelings. 

“Now feelings don't care about your facts."  

Dems may be the (uneven/flawed) good guys... and their policies always have better outcomes, in every category*... but they are tactical dunces. There are dozens of proposals - some that I made over eight years ago (in Polemical Judo) -that might have helped to save us by now. FOr example:

- Separate off the Inspectors General in all departments (and military JAGs) into their own separately-funded, non-executive branch - the Inspectorate - led by the Inspector General of the United States. If that had been done, then no Trump could ever have fired all the IGs and JAGs, as this one has done. (And no dem has stepped up to make that a central issue!)

- Give every House & Senate member one peremptory subpoena per year, so that never again would the minority be silenced.

- End or punish gerrymandering in ways that bypass corrupt court decisions.

- Strengthen the civil service act.

- Make revelation of tax records automatic for officials in all three branches. And investments that might at all involve conflicts of interest. In all three branches, annual medical examination by neutral experts will report results to the other branches.

- Offer Truth & Reconciliation safe harbor or protection for any officials being coerced or blackmailed.

- Ban NDAs, or require that they decay over a reasonable period.

- Establish a spending master who can limit public funds expended for personal purposes such as travel. And a civil serviant White House Manager who protects and manages public property.  

- End the practice of allowing lavish gifts from foreigners to be permanently displayed in Presidential museums, making them in effect actual gift bribes.

And...reconsider tariffs (which were explained in Ferris Beuller!) 

...and many more. Those and other reforms are still on the table!  

In fact, I recently updated them and a dozen more, offering specific and actionable detail. Here is the full list of my own proposed Newer Deal tactics and reforms.

So, are Dems smarter? Well, yes, if you appraise based on verifiable outcomes.  

And absolutely NOT if you score by their utter lack of political/polemical savvy, which has allowed morons, led by morons, to hijack the nation and sabotage the world's future.  Morons who know no history, including why the WWII/GIBill generation adored one living human above all others. Franklin Roosevelt. 

And in the 1950s? The most admired person in America and the world was named Jonas Salk. 

== Appealing to the saner aristocracy ==

Never before was a decade-old essay so important. Not one of mine! Rather I mean...

... Nick Hanauer’s 2014 appeal to his fellow billionaires to consider the one trait that all schools of psychology call central to sanity – satiability. Hanauer tells other members of the rising plutocrat caste that sending wealth disparities skyrocketing – now past French Revolution levels – will have one inevitable outcome… pitchforks and torches.

Till now, I thought there must be elements of the top most castes who are having buyers' remorse, when they realize that Trump's appointments have just one patterned purpose -- to utterly demolish the US government as a functioning concern. A demolition ultimately serving the long stated aims of one person above all others on Earth: Vladimir Putin.  Who openly and repeatedly proclaimed a passionate goal of revenge for the toppling of his beloved USSR.

Are there aristocrats who realize that their victory now threatens the very life of the nation where they keep their stuff... the goose that laid their golden eggs? 

Of course our current crisis distills as a worldwide attempted putsch against the Enlightenment Experiment (EE) by a combine of powers, ostensibly disparate but united in the goal of restoring 6000 years of rule-by-inheritance brats. 

Not all of the rich are ingrate fools - I know a fair number who are deeply loyal to the EE that gave them everything, from comfort and safety to science and fun. And the uiniversities and infrastructures and nerdy collaborators and services that make their wealth worthwhile.

None of those Good Zillionaires are participating in the putsch and some are deeply involved in the fight against it. So, yes, there are good ones! And one metric is whether they fear transparency. 

Which brings us to some of my own ideas on how to deal with the skyrocketing wealth and power disparities that will be exacerbated when crypto and AI wars send electricity use through the stratosphere, threatening all our lives.

I kind of laid it out here, and in this essay: The Chief Threat to our Great Experiment.

But now there's Articial intelligence.  And yes, my brand now book on the topic, covering the gamut of hopes and fears... is aiLien Minds.

== Discovering & Correcting Errors ==

Gonna press some buttons. I assert: Free Speech is not a religious principle - though it must be defended AS IF it is. 

I study history. And the principle goal should be error discovery & correction. Just one society ever made that a priority and it was the one without kings. And only one method ever achieved that - piercing the inevitable morass of delusions foaming about every individual and group and yes, you. And yes, me. And certainly AIs.

That method is vigorous competitively reciprocal criticism. And now the crux. You cannot get reciprocal criticism and error correction without Free Speech.

One problem. Unless the GOAL of error correction is kept in mind, then free speech has no corrective function! Not if it leads to the insanity of "MY yammerings are just as valid as anyone else's!"

No, it is a free, competitive market of ideas and assertions, not utter anarchy, that achieved modern miracles, like disproving racial assumptions or sexist ones or junk science or Nazi or Leninist ravings or the 'superiority' of inheritance brats. 

STUFF MUST BE DISPROVABLE! Not in order to shut people up. But to reduce the credibility of those who are factually wrong a lot. In order to embarrass those who are wrong into shifting their free speech to other criticisms that aren't yet disproved, or that might even be useful to us all.

Am I a heretic for defending free speech for different reasons than you defend it? Because it results in a wiser, more error free society? And not so much because it is the cultural norm that I was raised under. Outcomes matter. And I defend freedom because its outcomes are spectacularly better,

For a rather intense look at how "truth" is determined in science, democracy, courts and markets, see "Disputation Arenas: Harnessing Conflict and Competition." 

....which, in updated form, is now the final chapter of aiLien Minds