tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post8668353839252239129..comments2024-03-28T15:48:48.514-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Go to the Heart of the Middle East ProblemDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger56125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-4125512533472848242016-01-09T14:35:55.807-08:002016-01-09T14:35:55.807-08:00Locumranch,
" 'Numbers' are not as im...Locumranch,<br /><i>" 'Numbers' are not as important as you think, either here or in the Middle East, elsewise the Israeli nation of a mere 8 million would (or could) not hold off 250 million hateful neighbours bent on their individual destruction."</i><br /><br />Yes, because "survive against" is exactly the same as "invade and control".Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-12100374027648366862016-01-09T12:53:56.905-08:002016-01-09T12:53:56.905-08:00onward
onwardonward<br /><br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-81502234659652459062016-01-09T11:34:01.420-08:002016-01-09T11:34:01.420-08:00I'd also assert that quite often, allies manip...I'd also assert that quite often, allies manipulate each other with the consent of the manipulated. For example, the US "believed" Israeli intelligence claiming Saddam Hussein has yellowcake uranium even though we knew the intelligence was suspect, because it gave us an excuse to do something we already wanted to do.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-70510115617793336162016-01-09T09:28:15.529-08:002016-01-09T09:28:15.529-08:00I'd put it that that all nations are in a '...I'd put it that that all nations are in a 'state of anarchy' with respect to each other. With "international law" all treaty-based, and often not much of that, such as maritime treaties.Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-2854977012932866772016-01-09T07:15:49.395-08:002016-01-09T07:15:49.395-08:00It should be reasonably obvious that nations almos...It should be reasonably obvious that nations almost universally manipulate each other. Way back in olden times old Thomas Hobbes wrote that all nations are in a "state of nature" with respect to each other, by which he meant a predatory state. They all have machinations against each other. Even old allies spy on each other. Of course Hobbes was wrong about most things. He grossly misrepresented what "nature" means, but he was correct about nations manipulating each other. It can be taken for granted and our energies spent on discovering how each of the players on their field are manipulating each other.<br /><br />But assuming that every nation will treat every other as a predator treats prey is a mistake. Just as people need other people to survive (except, maybe, sociopaths, and even that's only a maybe), nations need other nations, as allies and trading partners, to survive. There isn't a nation in the Middle East that I would trust to be ally right now, not with the turmoil since the Arab Spring began, and that includes Israel (and I would be keeping an eye on Turkey, too). The whole 'two years until they have the bomb' only shows that they know how to push our buttons. But then, paranoia is such an easy button to push, especially when our local, mostly conservative and religious, politicians stoke the flames of paranoia on a daily basis to promote their own careers. Paul SBnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-82921282595105819382016-01-08T19:03:39.308-08:002016-01-08T19:03:39.308-08:00@Alfred: I agree completely. Israel is trying to m...<br /><br />@Alfred: I agree completely. Israel is trying to manipulate us, increasing the likelihood that the Western 'We' will allow Iran to enforce its own version of Pax on the Middle East, leading to the destruction of the Sunni Royals, the elimination of anarchic cultural chaos & the simplification of Middle Eastern foreign policy, which (in turn) will allow Israel to deal with singular adversaries susceptible to a MAD-dependent détente. <br /><br />Bestlocumranchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-20777932413161786722016-01-08T18:33:11.753-08:002016-01-08T18:33:11.753-08:00@locumranch: Unless you are privy to sensitive mat...@locumranch: Unless you are privy to sensitive material, I'm doubting your estimate of how much more pragmatic their intelligence service is compared to ours or other western nations. Intelligence people tend to be VERY pragmatic even when the people giving them orders aren't. Don't compare the ignorant masses in the US and the candidates fishing for them to the intelligence staff. That's an apples and broccoli comparison. They aren't even fruits.<br /><br />I'm not knocking Israel's capabilities when it comes to survival. Quite the opposite. It is a well established fact that they are good at what they do. THAT'S why I think they are trying to manipulate us with this 2 years to a bomb nonsense. It's a scare tactic designed to get an amygdala (BNST) response from us. Iran Bad! Side with Us! (pfft!)Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-34395540807479862022016-01-08T17:34:03.604-08:002016-01-08T17:34:03.604-08:00@Paul451: 'Numbers' are not as important a...<br />@Paul451: 'Numbers' are not as important as you think, either here or in the Middle East, elsewise the Israeli nation of a mere 8 million would (or could) not hold off 250 million hateful neighbours bent on their individual destruction.<br /><br />@Alfred: Although obviously biased & self-serving, Israel displays a level of intelligence ten magnitudes greater than those displayed by the most pragmatic of the West's self-deluding idealists, elsewise they would not exhibit the degree of success they must in order to preserve the security of a mere 8 million in the face of two hundred million (plus) hateful multitudes.<br /><br />@David: As above. The New American Civil War will proceed apace, despite rough numerical equivalence, because the relatively impoverished Rural Reds have relatively less & more to lose (depending on how you choose to keep score) than a host of Urban Blues who are most concerned with washer-driers, cable TVs & credit scores than decaying personal liberty.<br /><br />The imminent death of the Saudi Monarch has the succession-minded Saudi Royals close to fratricide; Iran & its Shiite majority represent the sole unfractured force within the Middle East Entire; the EU collapses under the weight of its failed hippy-dippy humanist polices; both China (PRC) & Japan implode in the face of ongoing democalypse; and the USA & Australia deny reality in fantastic favour of failed globalist narrative.<br /><br />Most certainly, we live in interesting times.<br /><br /><br />Bestlocumranchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-29278906260561110952016-01-08T11:44:20.494-08:002016-01-08T11:44:20.494-08:00I'm not convinced ALL of them have to happen t...I'm not convinced ALL of them have to happen to undermine the Saudi's influence upon us, but I'm with you in wanting them all to happen.<br /><br />I suspect we can continue to suffer with a lack of pragmatic politics for a while. When Congress can't disengage the clutch, political influence of rich people matters less.<br /><br />I suspect energy independence is going to happen anyway. I'm having a hard time believing Bush clan policies will be tolerated by people who are currently making money as we move toward independence. It CAN happen, of course, but I think there would be a fight this time... within the GOP. Maybe I'm overly optimistic, but I wouldn't put money on the pessimistic bet unless I was given 3 for 1 odds or better.<br /><br />When it comes to investments in energy savings and efficiencies, the US isn't the only market, so I'm not overly worried. What I'd watch out for from the bad guys is subsidies to the old guard that make importing new tech from the other markets a losing bet. Keeping the clutch engaged would help stop that, but only as a last ditch effort.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-34804149837913763262016-01-07T21:08:36.048-08:002016-01-07T21:08:36.048-08:00Yes, the Saudis can see that their plan will fail ...Yes, the Saudis can see that their plan will fail and their influence decline if 10 the Fox-GOP madness declines and 2) the US gains energy independence, and 3) the US plays it smart and makes guarded/careful peace with Iran and 4) the US regains its ability to engage in pragmatic, problem solving negotiation-politics and 5) we invest in further energy saving and efficiency technologies.<br /><br />ALL of those things will happen if the blue Union wins this phase of civil war. NONE of them will happen if the confederacy continues to sabotage our Great Experiment.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-12238954618160174612016-01-07T19:12:22.219-08:002016-01-07T19:12:22.219-08:00Another thing that undermines the sniff test is pe...Another thing that undermines the sniff test is people ARE known to follow the money. That form of voting with our feet often overrules political niceties.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-74465026208810137632016-01-07T19:10:28.196-08:002016-01-07T19:10:28.196-08:00@locumranch: If you believe Israeli 'intellige...@locumranch: If you believe Israeli 'intelligence', I have a bridge to sell you. If they TRULY believed this scare tactic, there would be military evidence of their actions because they won't wait for others to remove the threat. They'd do it themselves.<br /><br />@David: I'm not as concerned about the Saudi's as you, but that's mostly due to the fact that we don't have the GOP in power right now. The Saudi's are being forced to spend money in Yemen and elsewhere because we shifted the power balance under them with a potential détente with Iran. With the price of oil so low and us making it blatantly clear we intend our energy independence, they know they are going to have to face the local hatreds of olde without an umbrella for cover or even a paddle in the rapids. If the GOP DOES win... well... we need to make sure they don't halt the push toward energy independence. Ambiguous US foreign policy still undermines the Saudi's.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-56405255005800992242016-01-07T19:03:50.156-08:002016-01-07T19:03:50.156-08:00Hi Bettega
Your "voting with their feet"...Hi Bettega<br /><br />Your "voting with their feet" idea is OK<br />BUT there are problems<br /><br />(1) You have know there is somewhere better<br />(2) You have to be able to go<br />(3) Your destination has to accept you<br /><br />(2) In Saudi means that half of the population can't (women can't travel on their own)<br /><br />(3) Which countries would accept a migrant (not a refugee) ??<br />Everywhere worth living has strict controls on who can enter and all of the available slots are used up <br /><br />So overall the <br />"can't be so bad if so many people are willing to live there, and so few are willing to leave."<br />Loses the sniff testduncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-87814294821419264532016-01-07T19:02:48.009-08:002016-01-07T19:02:48.009-08:00@locumranch: If Gave’s account is accurate, one is...@locumranch: If Gave’s account is accurate, one is not forced to accept that the imposition of federalism is incompatible with peace and diversity. It is only one of the possibilities. IF the tribes benefit from trade between each other, there is a chance they will peacefully accept federalism. History shows they did not. They fought to dominate each other. That is not a necessary result from the initial conditions, though. Your IF-THEN statement fails because there are multiple possibilities.<br /><br />What’s happening over there is they don’t have the western enlightenment experience where our wars of religion killed off extremists and toppled an empire. We are the survivors of a nasty history we are choosing not to repeat. They haven’t grokked the solution we’ve found.<br /><br />You should put money and odds up with your prediction. Others here are putting it down, but I partially agree with it. I don’t believe the power in Iran (formerly known as Persia) is going to dominate, but they WILL be a regional power. The Turks (formerly known as the Ottomans) will keep them in check, but won’t be able to remove them. Both will exist long into this century because it is in US best interests to ensure they balance each other. ISIS and others who currently fight are proxies. This will continue and might even help provide them with their very own enlightenment experience. Painful and Bloody.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-48593143275808489362016-01-07T16:03:30.030-08:002016-01-07T16:03:30.030-08:00If Saudi "feudalism" was really that bad...If Saudi "feudalism" was really that bad, there would be more emigration, instead there is almost none, in fact, Saudi Arabia receives plenty of migrants from more centralized states such as Egypt or the state of Kerala in India, which is governed by the Communist Party.<br /><br />Of course, you could say it's because of oil, but there is also plenty of oil in Algeria, and Venezuela has just collapsed even though they have the biggest oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia itself. And there is also Jordan, which is another traditional Arab monarchy where bedouin tribes still have a lot of political power. It doesn't have oil, but it does receives migrants from more centralized countries in the region.<br /><br />Follow where people are willing to vote with their feet. I may not like the Swedish political model, but I have to admit it works quite well for them, otherwise so many people wouldn't be willing to live there, likewise the greatest indictment of communism is that so many people wanted to leave that communist states had to create barriers to prevent people from leaving.<br /><br />Traditional Arab monarchies, and that include Saudi Arabia, can't be so bad if so many people are willing to live there, and so few are willing to leave.Betteganoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-24671046891452949682016-01-07T15:50:04.311-08:002016-01-07T15:50:04.311-08:00The further you get from the USA and Australia, th...The further you get from the USA and Australia, the less those long straight-line political borders are trouble-free. Odd, that.Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-87600389561199841612016-01-07T15:27:52.879-08:002016-01-07T15:27:52.879-08:00According to the BBC, Shiites only make up about 1...<br />According to the BBC, Shiites only make up about 10% of the world's Muslims and only about 20% of the world's 1.5 billion Muslims reside in the Middle East & North Africa, of which there are almost 78 million Shiites in Iran, 30 million Sunnis in Saudi Arabia & 80 million in Egypt (the other countries are more mixed).<br /><br />That said, Middle Eastern Muslims prefer to avoid conflict rather than engage (hence their rather ineffectual militaries & the flood of EU refugees); Sunnis are NOT necessarily fraternal, mutually supportive, interchangeable or culturally homologous; Common Sunnis absolutely HATE the Monied Royals & would cut their throats for a penny; and, the Indonesians (who are not sane) are fractious & will be too busy fighting among themselves to give a dump about the Wahhabis. <br /><br />And, very soon, Iran will have nukes -- in less than two years according to Israeli Intelligence -- and then very few survival-minded Sunni or Western countries EXCEPT Iran will desire to engage in a faith-based war at the bequest of a few hated Sunni royals.<br /><br />Either way, the Saudis are screwed.<br /><br /><br />Bestlocumranchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-50505081458895966812016-01-07T15:05:14.979-08:002016-01-07T15:05:14.979-08:00LR's scenario makes no sense. Iran lacks the n...LR's scenario makes no sense. Iran lacks the numbers or the wealth to expand.<br /><br />If the House Saud declined... well, no. Their position is so precarious that they couldn't simply decline. If their power slipped, they would be overthrown by religious uprising, or taken over entirely by their own religious wing.<br /><br />So the scenario is: if the House Saud was overthrown. Then the opposite of LR's scenario would occur. The current game is soft-power expansion by funding the growth of Wahhabi extremism. The new game would be... cashing in on that. The direct attempt to establish a pan-Arab state under Saudi/Wahhabi control. Ie, the steam-roller would be running the other way.Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-13667566881233966552016-01-07T14:05:57.778-08:002016-01-07T14:05:57.778-08:00That said, I could easily see Saudi Arabia gaining...That said, I could easily see Saudi Arabia gaining nuclear weapons if it looked like Iran was becoming more ascendant in the region "just to protect ourselves, of course." Even if Iran didn't go nuclear first... and never did.<br /><br />Rob H.Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-91557767755097250412016-01-07T13:18:18.841-08:002016-01-07T13:18:18.841-08:00How lame. Sure, one can hope the current Sunni ra...How lame. Sure, one can hope the current Sunni radicals decline. But to posit a Shia steamroller leaves out how small a minority they are, in the Muslim world, with nuclear armed Pakistan and Vast-modern Indonesia unlikely to sit idly by. Sure Indonesia is sane and unlikely to support Wahhabis. But they'll not stand for a vast Shia steamroller and neither would we. Pure fantasy.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-91174699982455998892016-01-07T11:52:27.832-08:002016-01-07T11:52:27.832-08:00Paul SB:
People who naively believe that they wou...Paul SB:<br /><i><br />People who naively believe that they would be so much better off if "those people" weren't there have simply fallen for political propaganda. Get rid of "those people" and they will soon find people to fear and loathe among their own. They create a new set of "those people."<br /></i><br /><br />We see this at work in the Republican Party, where Eric Cantor, John Boener, Mitch McConnel, and now even Paul Ryan in turn are deemed "too liberal" for the party.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-73329880764691715152016-01-07T09:59:28.869-08:002016-01-07T09:59:28.869-08:00Although rife with anti-colonial sentiment, if Gav...<br />Although rife with anti-colonial sentiment, if Gave's account of peaceable pre-colonial Middle Eastern diversity is to be believed, then we must also accept that the imposition of centralized conformity (aka 'federalism') is, by nature, antithetical & incompatible with peaceable diversity, so much so that you must support smaller, balkanized, regional governments if you well & truly support 'diversity' with more than lip-service. <br /><br />Realise also that the West's lapsed infatuation with the Cultural 'Melting Pot' (wherein individual cultural, tribal, ethnic & religious differences are supposed to 'melt together' into a bland conformity of cultural sameness) is similarly antithetical & incompatible to what amounts to the Religion of Diversity.<br /><br />Of course, one could argue (as I would) that pre-colonial Middle Eastern diversity is (was) a mirage based on the NON-EXISTENT pre-colonial Middle Eastern expectation of conformity, intergroup cooperation and/or 'fairness' and, since this federalised (and/or 'civilised') expectation now exists in the Middle East, that intertribal warfare for the express purpose of FORCING universal conformity on these artificial nation states is all but inevitable.<br /><br />My Middle East prediction? The Sunni royal families, who continue to exist only because of western military support, will (shortly) go into eclipse, only to be overwhelmed & subjugated by a unified Shiite force led by Iran (but tacitly supported by the West's new anti-ISIS ant-Sunni coalition), the only Sunni hope being the acquisition of a nuclear weapon as a deterrent, which (most likely) is already in the possession of the Saudi Royal family (or soon will be), purchased from an impoverished ex-Soviet nation by the Saudi billions.<br /><br />Most certainly, we live in interesting times.<br /><br /><br />Bestlocumranchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-72520507465435275342016-01-07T06:47:17.233-08:002016-01-07T06:47:17.233-08:00How does one write about the violence in Syria &am...How does one write about the violence in Syria & Iraq and not mention the USA-led coalitions' two wars in Iraq, the USA-supported Iran-Iraq war & the USA support of the Zionist colonialist project? I've left out some other items, but just some of the big ones.<br /><br />Now, having said that, USA intervention is not the only reason for the region's problems and perhaps not even the most important. But it's certainly more important than French colonial policy vis-a-vis religious minorities in Greater Syria.Ayman Hossam Fadelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02971214697650068561noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-49582671612535246532016-01-07T04:53:41.787-08:002016-01-07T04:53:41.787-08:00Ah, Jumper, that would be because tribalism is pol...Ah, Jumper, that would be because tribalism is politics, and politics is about power. Brendan's example of Operation Cyclone is one of different tribes using each other for political gain. To have power you must have enemies to exert it over. Your Amish community is a case where they isolate themselves from other tribes, but when you do that, leaders within the community compete with each other by dividing the community against itself, a logical consequence of the Law of Segmentary Opposition. People who naively believe that they would be so much better off if "those people" weren't there have simply fallen for political propaganda. Get rid of "those people" and they will soon find people to fear and loathe among their own. They create a new set of "those people."Paul SBnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-45304949588980730672016-01-07T02:27:58.629-08:002016-01-07T02:27:58.629-08:00In the Eighties there was a western policy to arm ...In the Eighties there was a western policy to arm religious fundamentalists to gain their support against "Goddless" communism. The US supported the Mujahedin through Pakistan(Operation Cyclone) allowing the radical sects into the Indian subcontinent and Israel supported Hamas given they were enemies of the PLO.<br /><br />Salon talks about it <a href="http://www.salon.com/2015/11/17/we_created_islamic_extremism_those_blaming_islam_for_isis_would_have_supported_osama_bin_laden_in_the_80s/" rel="nofollow">here.</a>Brendanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12290731721638936110noreply@blogger.com