tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post8269376736385575900..comments2024-03-27T23:12:08.917-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Economics and investment gurus abandoning the GOP... and John Roberts's agenda... and again with this "Fourth Turning" voodoo?David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger71125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-55140217178326405952020-08-11T07:10:10.443-07:002020-08-11T07:10:10.443-07:00Neil Stephenson in “Cruptonomicon” talks about imp...Neil Stephenson in “Cruptonomicon” talks about impregnable island fortresses the Japanese built. The Allies dumped thousands of gallons of bunker fuel in the elevator shafts and burned it, slowly heating the whole structure. Not sure if this is based on actual history but it got me thinking.P00dleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12090048464299688021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-2868320464888236552020-08-01T14:51:21.513-07:002020-08-01T14:51:21.513-07:00onward
onwardonward<br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-55471439372542611242020-08-01T00:38:24.767-07:002020-08-01T00:38:24.767-07:00
Anonymous A German Nurse said...
Dr. Brin: Ever t...<br />Anonymous A German Nurse said...<br />Dr. Brin: Ever thought of the irony that the Postmen of the pre-Apocalypse could be crucial in saving the US democracy?<br /><br />They have been, all along.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-49234795269131908942020-08-01T00:23:16.474-07:002020-08-01T00:23:16.474-07:00The trouble with the "Second Amendment" ...The trouble with the "Second Amendment" is that in the vast majority of history the "Armed Citizens" have been on the side of the oppressors and Tyrants<br /><br />The main hope that I have for the USA is the age distribution of the Trumpists<br /><br />I can just see the line of advancing walking frames! duncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-60442254538813321372020-07-31T23:35:21.042-07:002020-07-31T23:35:21.042-07:00"I sure hope, I'm sure we all do, that we..."I sure hope, I'm sure we all do, that we can manage to get rid of them before things go that far?"<br /><br />These tweets are dire. Each one moves the limits of what is speakable until it becomes normal to talk and even consider it. It is part of his strategy to make unspekable things sound normal, day after day.<br /><br />That being said, I'd hope for the best and prepare for the worst. If Trump manages to steal the election or just refuses to leave office, things could get ugly. (Interesting dilemma for the higher ranks of the praetorians: They are sworn in and dedicated to protect the constitution ... and obey the Commander-in-Chiefs orders. If they resign, they allow their places to be filled with someone more malleable. If they resist, they might be fired or persecuted as traitors or mutineers. If they go full Stauffenberg, they give their lifes one way or another ... and might end up with either a civil war at hand or them being court-martialed before or after the deed.) Immediately, protests would start ... and secret police mercenary units deployed to crush them. In the greater universe, rival foreign leaders would certainly try to take advantage of the power vacuum suddenly evolving.<br /><br />Perhaps, if I would be on upcoming proscription lists, I'd prepare anything I'd need for a rapid departure. I'd look now for a foreign country welcoming to Americans and/or political refugees, and perhaps go on extended vacation once I casted my vote. Perhaps if it even would be prudent to do so if I would live in a country that could be targeted by one of these rival foreign leaders. (I believe Russia and China might act during the time Trump and Biden duke it out in the courts or the situation might become otherwise unpleasant. Since the pandemic is far from over, economical and social stress might increase tensions rapidly.) At the moment, I'd probably choose Namibia as my country of exile. <br /><br />Or I'd plan for the uprising and support of the nation's constitution. Networking, talking with people what to do if the unspeakable, unthinkable would happen, silently preparing ressources, places, people and plans. (We might not have a 2nd Amendment, but we have Article 20.4 of Basic Law: "All Germans shall have the right to resist any person seeking to abolish this constitutional order if no other remedy is available." If Trump would try to move the election in earnest, or steal it in another way, he surely would qualify.) It wouldn't need to be a violent opposition, but even creating safehouses for fugitives and resistance fighters, or building up a digital resistance (think of the White Rose and Anonymous), or infiltrating the power structure of the new regime requires forethought and planning. Again, it might be useful to prepare a G.O.O.D bag and an escape route.<br /><br />But yet, I'd hope I never needed one of those plans and preparations.A German Nursenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-41379573241445591282020-07-31T22:24:34.317-07:002020-07-31T22:24:34.317-07:00On the topic of asset bubbles, I have to wonder ab...On the topic of asset bubbles, I have to wonder about charts that place very different kinds of assets together and describe them as related bubbles.<br /><br />The on on this post shows national equity markets (Thailand, Japan, China) juxtaposed with asset classes (US housing, biotech) and then puts a nebulous group called 'disruptors' at the end as if to imply a similarity.<br /><br />Hmm.<br /><br />Disruptors SHOULD look like a bubble on the front side. That's what they do. They disrupt old industries. It's the expectation that they must pop, though, that intrigues me.<br /><br />Of course they might. People don't really know how to value disruptors of industries. Seriously. Is Tesla just a car company? Pfft. No. Obviously. It doesn't trade like one. It's more like a cross between a biotech and software company. Why isn't it listed with disruptors, though? Anyone with two brain cells to rub together knows that is EXACTLY what they are trying to do.<br /><br />So… which of the tech companies count as disruptors? Why not count ones from other industries too? Shouldn't we have a specialty index for them? Start your own ETF too! Why not! We've even got ETF's that make trades USING disruptors… like AI's. (Well… they aren't very good yet. Best stick to standard index ETF's.)<br /><br />Heh. My real issue with asset bubble discussions is a lack of ex ante predictions. The asset class that 'bubbled' is usually pretty obvious ex post facto, but much harder to define earlier. <br /><br />Bitcoin bubbled when it went legit and one could buy futures contracts. Many of us expected that and even put our money in on various bets. We weren't really betting on bitcoin, though. We were betting on the human enthusiasm roller coaster. <br /><br />The lesson here is that it isn't the asset that really bubbles. It's us. It's gold one year, tulip bulbs another year, and Cabbage Patch dolls in yet another. When we draw these charts with very different asset groups, they share the underlying trait of being tradable by enthusiastic participants. Trading algorithms have to expect that of us, so they must model the same 'enthusiasm' too as long as we humans are in the mix.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-82452739493147222682020-07-31T22:24:15.246-07:002020-07-31T22:24:15.246-07:00Dr. Brin: Ever thought of the irony that the Postm...Dr. Brin: Ever thought of the irony that the Postmen of the pre-Apocalypse could be crucial in saving the US democracy? A German Nursenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-75397869522570206032020-07-31T21:42:18.341-07:002020-07-31T21:42:18.341-07:00Larry,
Pelosi should do no such thing. At the mos...Larry,<br /><br />Pelosi should do no such thing. At the most, she should roll her eyes when journalists ask her about her reaction and call him and @#$&ing spoiled brat.<br /><br />You are right about California, so I think it is important that we learn the rules in other states and help keep and eye on it all. For example, North Dakota is so thinly populated, they don't bother with voter registration. I lived there a while and accept the logic of it. Just show up at the polls and prove you are from where you reside. They gamed that last time to lock out tribal votes by restricting certain kinds of proof of residency, so we could reasonably wonder what they'll try this time.<br /><br />I'm sure someone, somewhere needs to keep a special eye on North Carolina too. No doubt someone already is, so we should be helping even if it means something minimal like throwing them a few bucks.<br /><br />So… many of us have friends from around the country and acquaintances spread even wider. Now is the time to renew those contacts and ask what they are seeing as their local ground truth. Intelligence gathering is a critical element in all these projects, but especially in counter-intel operations. That's what we have to be doing here.<br /><br />How many US states do we represent here on this site, hmm?Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-21386559751202643142020-07-31T21:32:03.218-07:002020-07-31T21:32:03.218-07:00TCB,
Very modern of you.
One of the dangers with...TCB,<br /><br />Very modern of you.<br /><br />One of the dangers with modern English is our words have so many connotations, that we get muddy in the head when dealing with things that used to be pretty clear.<br /><br />There is a very, very particular form of social engineering upon which I trigger. Literally… trigger. It's the type that occurs with the threat of a gun to one's head. The gun is usually present in the figurative sense, of course. Punishment for bad behavior need not result in being shot. It can range from criminal consequences to civil liabilities to simple infractions.<br /><br />A simple example (admittedly not relevant in California anymore) is first cousin marriage. In some US States, it is allowed. In some it is tolerated. In a few there are criminal consequences, but I don't know how much they are enforced anymore. If it's on the books as a criminal or non-tolerated marriage, though, good luck getting a marriage license without crossing state lines. Off to Vegas, right?<br /><br />I get why cousin marriage was frowned upon in the past. It still creeps people out a bit. Some of us… if we notice. The problem is that some of us take that creepy feeling and move to ensure criminal consequences for those who do not find it creepy. See the implied gun? Even if it is just a denial of a marriage license, the gun is still present though of a less dangerous caliber. If you can be told who you may not marry, how free are you? (This is where people take the position to extremes of course, but I cover that in a moment.)<br /><br />There is nothing to stop us from ensuring there are social consequences for people who creep us out, but there are many ways we can do that short of using the power of the state to enforce consequences. Social engineering done with persuasion and shunning is expected. When it is done with coercion, I won't stand for it lightly.<br /><br />I object to the implied gun-to-the-head for many behaviors… including many that personally creep ME out. I'll give in and tolerate them doing so* when there is 90%+** support in the community for enforcing punishments, but I might leave their political groups and join a different one.<br /><br />My personal choice to leave the California Democrats wasn't this dramatic, though. It was mostly about fiscal responsibility. If we are going to promise fiscal support to a needy group, we better damn-well follow through on it. I hate empty promises. My inner Boy Scout objects. 8)<br /><br /><br />* [Failure to tolerate it breaks The Rule of Law. Pedophiles wind up being delivered by otherwise upstanding citizens as decapitated corpses to police stations.]<br /><br />** [If support later drops below 90% I'll still tolerate it until it gets below 80%. Beyond that, though, there is a serious chance supporters are on the losing side an historical tsunami.]Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-6242984068099682842020-07-31T18:43:05.040-07:002020-07-31T18:43:05.040-07:00Nice article on the New Yorker profiles the Army C...<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/08/03/urgent-care-from-the-army-corps-of-engineers" rel="nofollow">Nice article on the New Yorker profiles the Army Corps of Engineers, a government entity that actually 'gets it done', setting up emergency hospitals in time of Covid.</a>TCBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08153506222271955110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-47580724721121309452020-07-31T18:24:43.601-07:002020-07-31T18:24:43.601-07:00Found Juice Media ad, thought I'd share.
http...Found Juice Media ad, thought I'd share.<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpIkl2QnJeI<br /><br />It's satire. Or possibly just a brutally honest description.Robertnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-55552244603256411642020-07-31T17:53:28.273-07:002020-07-31T17:53:28.273-07:00Alfred Differ:
Also, now that Trump has floated t...Alfred Differ:<br /><i><br />Also, now that Trump has floated the 'delay' notion, I'm inclined to take Larry's worries more seriously too.<br /></i><br /><br />I hoped you'd eventually come around.:)<br /><br /><i><br />However, I'm not willing to make a big public fuss about this. I think the Tweeter-in-Chief would benefit from that. Overton window shift, ya know? Our response should be less pyrotechnic.<br /></i><br /><br />I think Nancy Pelosi should get the House to attempt to move the election up <b>sooner</b>. Make it tomorrow if possible. Then, Republicans in the Senate would have to defend the notion that messing with Election Day is a bad idea.<br /><br /><i><br />Also, find your options for delivering mail-in-ballots should the USPS be suspect by next November. Here in California, we are allowed to drop our mail-in ballots in a box where the in-person voting takes place.<br /></i><br /><br />Yeah, but we're not really worried about California, a state which makes it as <b>easy</b> as possible to vote. The problem is the Wisconsins and Ohios and Floridas where the local governments will throw every obstacle in the voters' way.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-4410367213823232342020-07-31T17:42:01.324-07:002020-07-31T17:42:01.324-07:00If open treason >> inked law then it has bee...If open treason >> inked law then it has been thus since 1776. Nothing has really changed, except that now the cat's out of the bag. Jefferson was right about eternal vigilance.scidatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07152319593457629592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-3138017485375436052020-07-31T16:56:34.062-07:002020-07-31T16:56:34.062-07:00Matthew has a valid point about emergency powers w...Matthew has a valid point about emergency powers we should take seriously.<br /><br />Also, now that Trump has floated the 'delay' notion, I'm inclined to take Larry's worries more seriously too. Whether the President's party supports him in the Senate or not remains to be seen. I don't take their vocal distancing from his trial balloon as sufficient evidence since they could grudgingly move in his direction in the future.<br /><br />I'm not quite willing to make the purchase TCB is making, but that choice is making some sense now.<br /><br />However, I'm not willing to make a big public fuss about this. I think the Tweeter-in-Chief would benefit from that. Overton window shift, ya know? Our response should be less pyrotechnic.<br /><br />What to do? Get your voter registration checked. Get your friends and relatives to do it too. Every district. We need to detect shenanigans earlier than later. Also, find your options for delivering mail-in-ballots should the USPS be suspect by next November. Here in California, we are allowed to drop our mail-in ballots in a box where the in-person voting takes place. Find your legal options and then let your friends, relatives, and neighbors know. Advocate for them!Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-33955947706391904562020-07-31T16:38:37.710-07:002020-07-31T16:38:37.710-07:00@ Alfred Differ, I am of the view that there is no...@ Alfred Differ, I am of the view that there is no such thing as a non-engineered society; rather, there are different degrees of conscious or unconscious engineering. In our primate ancestors, it was evolution, environment and chance that favored cooperative bands and tribes; when more complex human societies, and cities, came into being, these coincided with the creation of moralistic gods and concepts of karma and sin, good and evil. The Bible is a social engineering device, as are other religious texts and legal codes from Hammurabi onward.<br /><br />When modern critics decry social engineering, I infer it to mean that they do not like the new flavor of engineering being proposed, and prefer some older form which they never considered to be engineered at all, perhaps because they were not there to see the proverbial sausage getting made. (I'm reminded of Gore Vidal's novel about Julian the Apostate, which paints early Christians as a bunch of slimy, hypocritical, double-dyed bastards, not at all like such modern paragons of virtue as Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson.)<br /><br />This is not to say that modern scientific (or scientistic) experiments in social engineering are all vast improvements over the tried and true. B.F. Skinner is discredited, I gather, and Pol Pot definitely is. But I would ask you to cut the California social experimenters a little slack... the rest of us (barely) tolerated California's weird and Pandoric innovations of Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and Proposition 13.TCBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08153506222271955110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36491791632442898282020-07-31T15:53:42.096-07:002020-07-31T15:53:42.096-07:00The impeachment proved that politics >> rule...The impeachment proved that politics >> rule of law.<br /><br />I'm afraid this election is also going to test whether politics >> rule of law or not.David Smelserhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08596446730839038592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-74572701534582218942020-07-31T12:37:21.312-07:002020-07-31T12:37:21.312-07:00Larry Hart,
That's all true, but even though ...Larry Hart,<br /><br />That's all true, but even though the bad guys get what's coming to them when things go that far, it sucks nearly as bad for the good guys. I sure hope, I'm sure we all do, that we can manage to get rid of them before things go that far? Darrell Ehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14054311762477388637noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-75934786438843637822020-07-31T12:07:31.927-07:002020-07-31T12:07:31.927-07:00Roberts ended 240 years of Congressional oversight...Roberts ended 240 years of Congressional oversight and subpoena power. So... yeah. We are right now in revolution territory and we need to hammer it to everyone we know. <br /><br />NOW is the last month to do much voter registration or sign up for training to be a poll worker. But far more valuable that doing that, in a blue district of state, is finding some State Assembly swing district in a purple or red state and joining their phone bank. Totally flexible hours...<br /><br />Anyone out there care to do the legwork on finding out which org does that? Down at the State Assembly level? I'll then use my vast, vast fame to promote it!<br /><br />RiiiightDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-54207937676548303172020-07-31T11:02:06.088-07:002020-07-31T11:02:06.088-07:00Lincoln suspended habeas corpus in the civil war u...Lincoln suspended habeas corpus in the civil war using his emergency powers. Habeas corpus is enshrined in the constitution, just as the term of POTUS and VPOTUS ending on Jan 20th is enshrined in the constitution. <br /><br />Emergency powers are what the SCOTUS says they are upon review of actions taken. <br /><br />There are many, many ways to abuse the powers if you have a radically anti-voter majority on SCOTUS, as we do. <br /><br />Talking about this beforehand can help defuse the situation and plan for the worst. <br /><br />I see very little action from the Dems, or even Project Lincoln, to prepare for what we will be facing. We need preemptive calls to Congress, letters to the editor, subpoenas for GOP operatives, hearings, and more, starting yesterday. <br /><br />There is every sign that Trump will try to hold on to power unlawfully, and every sign that a 5-4 majority of SCOTUS will enable it. matthewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17757867868731829206noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-63658754248664010492020-07-31T10:41:55.791-07:002020-07-31T10:41:55.791-07:00Darrell E:
In any reasonably decent society the b...Darrell E:<br /><i><br />In any reasonably decent society the bad guys always have the advantage. They have the advantage because they don't play by the rules while the good guys largely allow themselves to be constrained by the rules. We are in a situation were there are so many bad guys in so many key positions of authority that our laws and institutions are failing to protect us.<br /></i><br /><br />What the bad guys don't seem to realize is that democratic norms and rule of law are bulwarks against more violent forms of revolution. When you suppress peaceful protest, you're going to get riots in their place. When you suppress voting and peaceful transition of power, you're going to get the French Revolution. When you leave your population without hope, then they are also without fear.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-62607178597701286442020-07-31T09:56:45.812-07:002020-07-31T09:56:45.812-07:00I've come to be very skeptical of any claims t...I've come to be very skeptical of any claims that "this" (whatever incident) is what will stop or end Trump. Based on the past 3+ years I don't know how anybody could confidently make such a claim. If other people don't do anything to stop him then laws don't matter. What the constitution says doesn't matter. It doesn't matter that the constitution gives congress and congress alone the authority to change the election date. It doesn't matter that the constitution says that no matter what a president's term ends on January 20th unless an election takes place and they win it. It's all just words. As long as enough people in the right places continue to empower this asshole by either helping him or by not stopping him then the constitution doesn't mean shit. It hasn't done us any good so far because it is dependent on people to make what it says manifest. So far Trump has gotten away with myriad things that at any other time in the past would have gotten a president removed from office. Numerous things that the constitution, laws, rules and precedent don't allow for or explicitly forbid. <br /><br />In any reasonably decent society the bad guys always have the advantage. They have the advantage because they don't play by the rules while the good guys largely allow themselves to be constrained by the rules. We are in a situation were there are so many bad guys in so many key positions of authority that our laws and institutions are failing to protect us. Worse, the bad guys have thoroughly gamed the system over a period of decades so that even before Trump our laws and institutions were well compromised. These are momentous times for us in the US. Sudden big changes are imminent. It's getting down to fight or die time.Darrell Ehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14054311762477388637noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-15653551507671431442020-07-31T07:39:58.711-07:002020-07-31T07:39:58.711-07:00If the Supreme Court were to hold that the old spe...<i>If the Supreme Court were to hold that the old speaker ceases to be speaker on Jan. 3</i><br /><br />And what are the odds of that happening with the current Court?Robertnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-2910670369910185142020-07-31T05:29:25.192-07:002020-07-31T05:29:25.192-07:00This gets that Federalist Society condemnation abo...This gets that Federalist Society condemnation about right, and also posits an interesting consequence of postponing the elections:<br /><br />https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Jul31.html#item-1<br /><i><br />...<br />Even the co-founder of the Federalist Society, Steven Calabresi, who has voted for every Republican presidential candidate since 1980, called Trump's comment "fascistic," and called for his immediate impeachment and conviction. Considering that when Trump was actually impeached, Calabresi opposed his conviction, this new-found reverence for the rule of law smacks of trying to get on the right side of history while there is still time.<br />...<br />But what Trump clearly does not understand is the consequence of getting Congress to change the election to some time after Jan. 20, 2021. Per the 20th Amendment, his term and that of Mike Pence end at noon on Jan. 20, 2021. Period. No exceptions. And, unlike the date of the election, even Congress can't change it. If both the presidency and vice presidency were vacant at noon, the Speaker of the House automatically becomes president—if there is a speaker. Since the speaker doesn't have to be a member of the House, it is not clear if the current speaker, Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) continues in the role until a new one is chosen, or if her speakership ends on Jan. 3. If the Supreme Court were to hold that the old speaker ceases to be speaker on Jan. 3, then the president pro tem of the Senate is next in line. Currently that is Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), but if Senate elections are postponed, the remaining 65 senators not up this year could elect a new pro tem. Since 35 of them are Democrats, following tradition, they would probably elect their most senior member. Welcome, President Pat Leahy (D-VT).<br /></i><br />Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-66536156924268456332020-07-31T05:11:30.191-07:002020-07-31T05:11:30.191-07:00Another thing about "The Manchurian Candidate...Another thing about "The Manchurian Candidate". I read the novel a few years ago, and I think this is a rare example where the movie actually <b>improved</b> on the book.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-38140943569397135522020-07-31T05:09:48.931-07:002020-07-31T05:09:48.931-07:00@Dr Brin,
As long as we're spoiling the movie...@Dr Brin,<br /><br />As long as we're spoiling the movie, I'm pretty sure Ms Landsbury's character was an agent of the <b>Russians</b>. Korea was simply the convenient venue for kidnapping American GIs at the time.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.com