tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post8010706110856351899..comments2024-03-29T00:39:31.629-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Bait n' switch and distraction from the High Court. Don't be fooled.David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger85125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-16292700916218381492019-07-03T22:14:43.176-07:002019-07-03T22:14:43.176-07:00yeah onward. Happy 4th you Union lovers. And for t...yeah onward. Happy 4th you Union lovers. And for the rest of you, have a great weekend and tomorrow.<br /><br /><br />onward<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-76843530578334282192019-07-03T21:56:22.720-07:002019-07-03T21:56:22.720-07:00onward?onward?David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-60174095016727775512019-07-03T21:50:43.797-07:002019-07-03T21:50:43.797-07:00LH all good points. I am refuted.
LH all good points. I am refuted.<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-37605263517016503052019-07-03T20:36:05.248-07:002019-07-03T20:36:05.248-07:00Dr Brin:
"Putting the citizenship question i...Dr Brin:<br /><i><br />"Putting the citizenship question in the census would make a much easier to draw districts based on regions of equal number of voting age citizens." So? In a world without cheating that'd be arguably right.<br /></i><br /><br />The Constitution specifies "Whole number of persons". Since that self-evidently includes women and children, neither of whom could be eligible voters in 1789, there's no way to interpret that phrase as meaning only those who could vote. If that's not enough, there's the infamous 3/5ths clause counting slaves as 3/5 of a person without giving them 3/5 of a vote.<br /><br /><i><br />#2 is another reason to fight. But think. It's a narrow class of states that'd want that. Only states where the statewide vote will go democratic... in which case they might likely get a democratic governor... that ALSO have a cheating-like-mad GOP legislature. <br /></i><br /><br />That's not as rare as it sounds. Just off the top of my head--Wisconsin and North Carolina who de-powered their governorships after a Democrat <b>did</b> win but the legislatures are solidly Republican. I believe Virginia is in danger too. And Michigan. And possibly Pennsylvania.<br /><br /><i><br />BTW DS's point #1 would motivate states to get immigrants to be citizens<br /></i><br /><br />To get more Electoral Votes and federal dollars, yes. But to keep the state in Republican hands, no. So it depends which goal wins out. I'd expect it would be the latter. What profit the cheating Republicans to gain more Electoral Votes if those votes are going to go to a Democrat?Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-91685239199603782212019-07-03T18:52:34.558-07:002019-07-03T18:52:34.558-07:00The 19th century was rife with chiselers, four-flu...The 19th century was rife with chiselers, four-flushers, coin-clippers, and grifters running a plethora of cons. They were so impotent and short-lived to be almost charming. Technology and bureaucracy squeezed them out, requiring ever greater guile and ingenuity -- thinning their ranks and even adding some of the cleverest ones (or their offspring) to the good side. Several Dem titans come to mind. I don't see these traits in the 'Confederacy'. More like brash and blatant bullying. Perhaps the 'Union' should focus on science and simply out-pace them.scidatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07152319593457629592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-49736724285394048412019-07-03T17:32:19.371-07:002019-07-03T17:32:19.371-07:00BTW DS's point #1 would motivate states to get...BTW DS's point #1 would motivate states to get immigrants to be citizens.<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-25314369356082021052019-07-03T14:06:44.358-07:002019-07-03T14:06:44.358-07:00"Putting the citizenship question in the cens..."Putting the citizenship question in the census would make a much easier to draw districts based on regions of equal number of voting age citizens." So? In a world without cheating that'd be arguably right.<br /><br />#2 is another reason to fight. But think. It's a narrow class of states that'd want that. Only states where the statewide vote will go democratic... in which case they might likely get a democratic governor... that ALSO have a cheating-like-mad GOP legislature. <br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-32677359952825475562019-07-03T14:01:31.939-07:002019-07-03T14:01:31.939-07:00In 2016, the supreme court decided that Texas coul...In 2016, the supreme court decided that Texas could not draw districts based on eligible voters instead of total population. With the new make up of the court and a new census, I can certainly see other states try this again. Putting the citizenship question in the census would make a much easier to draw districts based on regions of equal number of voting age citizens.<br /><br />The other thing we should see in an increase in states wanting to distribute electoral votes based on how their congressional districts voted. When the house districts are gerrymandered, this makes it even easier for candidates to win the electoral vote and lose the popular vote.<br /><br /><br /><br />David Smelserhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08596446730839038592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-72450874013575337302019-07-03T13:34:59.652-07:002019-07-03T13:34:59.652-07:00"It's just the fact that they're tryi..."It's just the fact that they're trying something that is obviously illegal and unconstitutional (purposely undercounting) whether the particular scheme is effective or not."<br /><br />Bah. It gave Roberts an excuse to be seen being 'balanced' when the only thing that mattered was the gerrymandering decision.<br /><br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-64009491295464005082019-07-03T13:33:43.977-07:002019-07-03T13:33:43.977-07:00Aaaaand the magical incantation is back: "A b...Aaaaand the magical incantation is back: "A bit more than 80% of the energy currently used by industrial civilization comes from fossil fuels, if they are eliminated that means (eventually) your wealth and income must go down by ~80% as well."<br /><br />Proving that the attack on positive-sum thinking spans all spectra. It's dominant on the mad right. But it infests the left.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-48429778185890453532019-07-03T12:22:00.863-07:002019-07-03T12:22:00.863-07:00Dr Brin:
"It's like the sides in WWII, b...Dr Brin:<br /><i><br />"It's like the sides in WWII, but how did we become the bad guys?"<br /><br />We CONTAIN bad guys. <br /></i><br /><br />We as a nation, in a community of nations, ACT as one of the bad guys right now. And I know that's a simplistic statement. It is kinda chilling, though, to see the US, Britain, and Russia vs Germany and Japan again while rooting for the other side.<br /><br /><i><br />Sorry, here I take a break from liberal doctrine. I never believed this hysteria over the citizen question, which I doubt would make much difference. <br /></i><br /><br />It's just the fact that they're <b>trying</b> something that is obviously illegal and unconstitutional (purposely undercounting) whether the particular scheme is effective or not. At some point, they'll just throw census questionaires from certain zip codes or with certain names into the trash bin. I mean, if they're going to cheat, why not go all the way? I'm not so much focused on the individual cheating schemes as on the fact that blatant cheating doesn't cause them negative consequences, in fact, their base votes FOR them because they like the cheating.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-81583594725635840742019-07-03T10:50:30.007-07:002019-07-03T10:50:30.007-07:00"It's like the sides in WWII, but how did..."It's like the sides in WWII, but how did we become the bad guys?"<br /><br />We CONTAIN bad guys. With foreign help they never got in the 1860s, the Confederacy took Washington, this time.<br /><br />"As we have noted many times, the administration knows full well that asking a citizenship question will cause many non-citizens to avoid responding to the census."<br /><br />Sorry, here I take a break from liberal doctrine. I never believed this hysteria over the citizen question, which I doubt would make much difference. Not if liberal groups made major efforts to audit confidentiality processes and to reassure target populations, many of whom won't answer anyway. This was a bloated "issue." In abstract - yes abstract -- such a question would be totally legitimate, as it'd be legit to demand voter ID at polling stations. It's compliance assistance that proves Republican utter malignancy and turpitude.<br /><br />The Unwanted Ivanks meme is so totally welcome. https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/07/02/hashtag-unwanted-ivanka-trump-memes-twitter-moos-pkg-ebof-vpx.cnn<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-27755600070123709132019-07-03T10:31:27.598-07:002019-07-03T10:31:27.598-07:00jim:
Industrial civilization exist because of the...jim:<br /><i><br />Industrial civilization exist because of the carbon bubble.<br /></i><br /><br />I think you're misunderstanding Daniel's point.<br /><br />The relevant sentence is this:<br /><i><br />When there’s a large difference between how markets think assets should be valued and what they are (or will) actually be worth, we call it a “bubble.”<br /></i><br /><br />When all of civilization is running on fossil fuels, then they aren't overvalued. They really are worth a lot. What he calls a "bubble" is when fossil fuels are no longer coveted as they have been in the past, and so the monetary value of owning them disappears. That happens <b>after</b> civilization decides it can get by without fossil fuels (or with much less).Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-23236623993767357772019-07-03T09:55:06.154-07:002019-07-03T09:55:06.154-07:00Industrial civilization exist because of the carbo...Industrial civilization exist because of the carbon bubble.<br /><br />A bit more than 80% of the energy currently used by industrial civilization comes from fossil fuels, if they are eliminated that means (eventually) your wealth and income must go down by ~80% as well. <br /><br />(some sort of civilization could be built on solar power, but it would have to be very different from our current "only growth matters" economy.)<br /><br />jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07865068658069680309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-65346290176679013522019-07-03T09:04:30.518-07:002019-07-03T09:04:30.518-07:00Pretty funny parody pics of Ivanka, Forrest Gump-l...Pretty funny parody pics of Ivanka, Forrest Gump-like inserted into historical images:<br /><br />https://twitter.com/will_oppss/status/1145488131837218816Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-31141332280935161972019-07-03T07:04:56.391-07:002019-07-03T07:04:56.391-07:00Someone who isn't me finally noticed that Trum...Someone who isn't me finally noticed that Trump's meddling with the census is blatantly illegal and unconstitutional. Not that Republicans care or anything, but remember this the next time they have the balls to refer to themselves as "constitutionalist" :<br /><br />https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2019/Pres/Maps/Jul02.html#item-3<br /><i><br />That brings us back to the citizenship question, which—far from being an attempt to protect the rights of minority voters—is actually just an alternative way to reduce Democratic power. As we have noted many times, the administration knows full well that asking a citizenship question will cause many non-citizens to avoid responding to the census. That, in turn, will cause them to be undercounted, and thus will cost areas with sizable undocumented populations (most of which are blue) billions in federal dollars as well as seats in the House of Representatives, and consequently electoral votes. Trump knows this, and he badly wants this result. The courts have handed him multiple defeats, but the Supreme Court has not made a final determination, so the President is holding out hope that his administration will ultimately prevail. And while he waits, he very much to delay the census. He said so when SCOTUS first ruled against him, and he reiterated it even more forcefully yesterday.<br /><br />Note that there is much going on here that is illegal. First, the Constitution requires that all residents of the country be counted, not just those that have citizenship and/or legal status. Any steps taken with the knowledge that they will produce undercounting are thus inherently unconstitutional. Meanwhile, the Constitution does not specify a start date for the next census, but federal law does (April 1, 2020). It's true that Congress could change the law, and thus the start date, but that won't be happening as long as Nancy Pelosi is running the House. So, if Trump does delay, he will be violating federal law. That said, we all know at this point how enthusiastic the Justice Dept. and the Senate are about holding the President accountable, so it is unlikely that he's going to let a little something like 13 USC 141 bother him. <br /></i>Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-83257505110158628072019-07-03T05:55:26.789-07:002019-07-03T05:55:26.789-07:00Larry Hart: how did we become the bad guys?
Becau...Larry Hart: <i>how did we become the bad guys?</i><br /><br />Because psychohistory is much more than TB's 'geek fantasy'. Newton's laws, pendulums, evolution, computation, etc, etc, etc, etc. Just because a thing is vastly complicated, doesn't mean that it can be thrown in the trash bin with a capricious yawn. Thus my attentive reading of this blog.scidatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07152319593457629592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-18093737138852587932019-07-03T04:52:09.102-07:002019-07-03T04:52:09.102-07:00Daniel Duffy:
You can now divide the world into t...Daniel Duffy:<br /><i><br />You can now divide the world into the Green Alliance and the Carbon Axis (Trump's America and Brexit Britain divided in two, Germany is Green, Putin's Russia is Carbon, etc.). <br /></i><br /><br />It's like the sides in WWII, but how did we become the bad guys?<br />Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-64433373537729604732019-07-03T04:50:10.390-07:002019-07-03T04:50:10.390-07:00duncan cairncross:
https://www.politicalorphans.c...duncan cairncross:<br /><i><br />https://www.politicalorphans.com/apocalypse-now-why-republicans-are-destroying-the-world/<br /></i><br /><br />Scary and informative.<br /><br />Of the entire long rant, I think this sentence and its surrounding paragraph summed it up best:<br /><i><br />The evangelical death cult is why we can’t have nice things.<br /></i><br /><br />In <i>1984</i>, Orwell explains how authoritarian governments use a bloated military to keep economic activity going into making useless weapons instead of benefiting the public. The evangelical cult serves the same function in the political realm.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-23507309330219464612019-07-03T02:30:14.944-07:002019-07-03T02:30:14.944-07:00"ALL of them are lethally threatened by that,..."ALL of them are lethally threatened by that, and hence their odd-looking alliance, of of Kremlin-KGB agents, oligarchs, Saudi princes, casino moguls, carbon barons, mafiosi, Wall Street cheaters, Fox liars and inheritance brats."<br /><br />You can now divide the world into the Green Alliance and the Carbon Axis (Trump's America and Brexit Britain divided in two, Germany is Green, Putin's Russia is Carbon, etc.). <br /><br />For insight into the threat the Carbon Axis faces from the Carbon Bubble, see "Trump, Putin and the Pipelines to Nowhere" and the threat<br /><br />https://thenearlynow.com/trump-putin-and-the-pipelines-to-nowhere-742d745ce8fd<br /><br /><br />At the same time, the innovations we need to create zero-carbon prosperity are already here. From plummeting costs for solar, wind, electric vehicles and green buildings to better approaches to urban planning, agriculture and forestry, we already have the tools we need to start building a much more prosperous world, producing hosts of new companies and millions of jobs. Indeed, a giant building boom is what successful climate action looks like.<br /><br />Because we have no real choice but to act — and, in fact, climate action will make most people not only safer, but better off — big changes are coming, far sooner than most Americans understand.<br /><br />But some people totally understand: the ones who stand to lose money from these changes.<br /><br />Here’s the blunt reality: the pressure to cut emissions and respond to a changing climate are going to alter what we do and don’t see as valuable. Climate action will trigger an enormous shift in the way we value things.<br /><br />If we can’t burn oil, it’s not worth very much. If we can’t defend coastal real estate from rising seas (or even insure it, for that matter), it’s not worth very much. If the industrial process a company owns exposes them to future climate litigation, it’s not worth very much. The value of those assets is going to plummet, inevitably… and likely, soon.<br /><br />Currently, though, these assets are valued very highly. Oil is seen as hugely valuable, coastal real estate is seen as hugely valuable, industrial patents are seen as hugely valuable.<br /><br />When there’s a large difference between how markets think assets should be valued and what they are (or will) actually be worth, we call it a “bubble.”<br /><br />Experts now call the differences between valuations and worth in fossil fuel corporations, climate-harmful industries and vulnerable physical assets the “Carbon Bubble.” It is still growing.<br /><br />And here’s the thing about bubbles: they always pop.<br /><br />DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-67551687500790127442019-07-03T02:24:40.568-07:002019-07-03T02:24:40.568-07:00Recent Russian population growth was a blip, they ...Recent Russian population growth was a blip, they are back to having more deaths than births (aka the Russian Cross). Population decline is back on track. See the chart in: <br /><br />https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/08/russia-is-weak-and-has-a-rapidly-aging-and-shrinking-population.html<br />DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-16092897877347223502019-07-02T20:14:49.444-07:002019-07-02T20:14:49.444-07:00Alfred I know George F who helped found Stratfor (...Alfred I know George F who helped found Stratfor (and has moved on). While Realpolitik and hedgemonic self-interest are factors in Putinism, They miss the bigger picture, a worldwide effort to shatter what threatens every oligarchy… the development of a world culture of accountability, transparency and rule of law. ALL of them are lethally threatened by that, and hence their odd-looking alliance, of of Kremlin-KGB agents, oligarchs, Saudi princes, casino moguls, carbon barons, mafiosi, Wall Street cheaters, Fox liars and inheritance brats.<br /><br />As for the 1st Iraq War, Saddan could not have chosen a worse year. Two years earlier there was still sort of a Warsaw Pact. Two years later and most of our European Army would have been dispersed and sent home. He chose exactly when we had a top notch, trained and fueled field army just a few hundred klicks away, with nothing to do. An amazing fact I’ve seen no one comment on.<br /><br />Putin hated Bill Clinton and Obama but desperately loathed Hillary, whom he directly blamed for loss of the Ukraine. Then she stupidly failed to brag about that, in the campaign.<br /><br />Treebeard is right. (choke!) Oh, not in his blithering nonsense hatred of experts etc. But sometimes amateurs get a hit. Like Lyndon LaRouche predicting the mid 90s would be a maelstrom caused by the breakup of Yugoslavia. A jibbering loony. But strange minds sometimes spot things. Um, look who’s talking right now?<br /><br />Russia's population is actually growing…? Well, a lot of Chinese are moving into Siberia.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-14210377680776955502019-07-02T18:08:42.359-07:002019-07-02T18:08:42.359-07:00Duncan - he's not wrong.
But he neglects a se...Duncan - he's not wrong.<br /><br />But he neglects a serious demographic component of Trump support: the fact that by 2040 America will be a white minority country. Scratch the surface of even the religious end times beliefs and you find this fear as their primary motive force.DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-12470244916333948192019-07-02T18:02:11.227-07:002019-07-02T18:02:11.227-07:00Putin's Russia is a dead man walking.
As a co...Putin's Russia is a dead man walking.<br /><br />As a counterpoint <br /><br />https://www.politicalorphans.com/apocalypse-now-why-republicans-are-destroying-the-world/<br /><br />I've been out of the USA for nearly 20 years - is Chris Ladd as accurate as I fear?duncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-50204185995611198762019-07-02T15:24:12.108-07:002019-07-02T15:24:12.108-07:00Tree:
Putin's Russia is a dead man walking.Tree:<br /><br />Putin's Russia is a dead man walking.DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.com