tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post7973067517743199501..comments2024-03-29T00:39:31.629-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Science-tech updates - young blood for old? And much more. David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger64125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-32913284900538476762020-07-23T23:00:37.598-07:002020-07-23T23:00:37.598-07:00"So we can either be a great nation or a Whit..."So we can either be a great nation or a White nation. There is no third option." Terahttps://damnxstories.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-6109483745499191582020-07-19T09:27:52.187-07:002020-07-19T09:27:52.187-07:00onward now!onward now!David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-81633816729082682572020-07-19T08:37:02.627-07:002020-07-19T08:37:02.627-07:00Democrats are allowed to do something about the Se...<i>Democrats are allowed to do something about the Second Amendment rights of gun-owners?</i><br /><br />Your Second Amendment only applies to white folks. <i>De facto</i> if not <i>de jure</i>.Robertnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-20150150548529646972020-07-19T07:04:12.688-07:002020-07-19T07:04:12.688-07:00onward to...?
(If you published a new post, I'...onward to...?<br /><br />(If you published a new post, I'm not seeing it, even with multiple browser refreshes. Just sayin') Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-81403696162983562912020-07-19T01:32:06.007-07:002020-07-19T01:32:06.007-07:00Onward - but no new post?Onward - but no new post?duncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-43168127614644431972020-07-18T21:55:55.916-07:002020-07-18T21:55:55.916-07:00onward
onwardonward<br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-45464768209574154152020-07-18T21:05:14.662-07:002020-07-18T21:05:14.662-07:00"Karen" isn't nice to a million nice..."Karen" isn't nice to a million nice ladies named Karen.<br /><br />But there's likely only one Ivanka.<br /><br />And why is no one making anything of the "Ivan" part?David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-41640428560405037652020-07-18T19:40:48.085-07:002020-07-18T19:40:48.085-07:00https://www.chicagotribune.com/politics/ct-chicago...https://www.chicagotribune.com/politics/ct-chicago-mayor-lori-lightfoot-calls-kayleigh-mcenany-karen-20200717-jiepxhfdjrba3ivuhqu5it6nq4-story.html<br /><br /><i><br />White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany set off the new round of vitriol with the Chicago Democrat at her news briefing earlier in the day. McEnany called Lightfoot “the derelict mayor of Chicago” and accused her of not doing enough to resolve the city’s gun violence.<br /></i><br /><br />I'm confused. Democrats are allowed to do something about the Second Amendment rights of gun-owners?<br /><br /><i><br />The war of words between the White House and Chicago City Hall continued as Mayor Lori Lightfoot in a Thursday tweet called President Donald Trump’s press secretary a “Karen” and told her to watch her mouth.<br /></i><br /><br />Heh.<br /><br />"There are parts of Chicago that I wouldn't advise you to try to invade."<br />Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-5773870424587935142020-07-18T19:34:41.170-07:002020-07-18T19:34:41.170-07:00From memory, but I'm pretty sure this is the g...From memory, but I'm pretty sure this is the gist of a quote from Star Trek TNG:<br /><i><br />"There comes a point in every father's life when he looks into his little girl's eyes and realizes...he <b>must</b> change the world for her."<br /></i>Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-50112705664106473992020-07-18T19:26:23.944-07:002020-07-18T19:26:23.944-07:00For better or worse, the stormTrumpers in Portland...For better or worse, the stormTrumpers in Portland are not being ignored by the news media any longer...<br /><br />https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/17/opinion/portland-protests-federal-agents.html<br /><i><br />According to recent reports from Oregon Public Broadcasting and other outlets, federal agents dressed in fatigues have been patrolling the city in unmarked vans, grabbing and detaining protesters, often with no indication of whether they’ve been charged with any crime. “This is an attack on our democracy,” Portland’s mayor, Ted Wheeler, said.<br /></i><br /><br />https://www.chicagotribune.com/nation-world/ct-nw-portland-federal-law-enforcement-20200717-ih6jkar4vfbexi5amnitthlwku-story.html<br /><i><br />PORTLAND, ORE. — Militarized federal agents deployed by the president to Portland, Oregon, fired tear gas against protesters again overnight as the city’s mayor demanded that the agents be removed and as the state’s attorney general vowed to seek a restraining order against them.<br /></i><br /><br /><br /><br />Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-32618218771280888552020-07-18T17:26:32.619-07:002020-07-18T17:26:32.619-07:00It would be the world's longest bumper sticker...It would be the world's longest bumper sticker, but here's the one I want wrapped around to my fenders:<br /><br /><i><br />You don't have to tell me All Lives Matter. I already know that. I DO have to tell you Black Lives Matter. Because you don't believe it.<br /></i>Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-4447930327224138312020-07-18T17:25:53.647-07:002020-07-18T17:25:53.647-07:00Re- the women who want children will outbreed the ...Re- the women who want children will outbreed the rest<br /><br />Two problems with that<br />(1) I suspect that is the type of thing that is effectively spread across several genes and as a result is only mildly inheritable<br />(2) - The big one - we invented Cultural Evolution about 70,000 years ago since then biological evolution has taken the back seat - it's just so damn slow! - about a million times slower<br />AND with our current knowledge we are just about to start using "Intelligent Design" - which will effectively supplant Darwinian Evolution<br /><br />Daniel Duffy<br />Renewables today have an EROEI Energy Return on Energy Invested that is far GREATER than fossil fuels<br />Solar has a total cost repayment of about 30:1 - that is the energy produced is greater than the cost of the energy used + cost of the materials + cost of the labour<br />and wind is about 60:1<br />The best of the fossil fuels used to be about 30:1 - but there is not much of that left and some of today's fossil fuels are getting down towards ONE!<br /><br />As far as demographics are concerned the big change is a reduction in the number of kids - the number of productive adults (15 to 75) does not change<br /><br />AND progress does NOT NOT NOT come from numbers of people - it comes from engineers and the like continuing to work out how to do MORE with LESS<br /><br />Batteries - as in EV batteries<br />In a few years there will be millions of EV's - all with a range several times the expected daily use - so with Grid to Grid technology each will earn its owner a bit of cash by acting as an energy store<br />ASSUMING that all charges/discharges are equal in consuming battery life<br />If a vehicle has a battery life of 300,000 miles as Teslas appear to have - then using that surplus capacity will eat the vehicle's battery life <br /><br />Which is where I believe Musk's "Million Mile Batteries" will come in <br />With a battery with such a long life an owner will be able to sell a lot of that life to the grid and still have a battery that will outlast 99% of cars <br /><br />Eduncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-67031306019403060272020-07-18T15:51:06.933-07:002020-07-18T15:51:06.933-07:00Re: psychohistory
Linear regression will be the d...Re: psychohistory<br /><br />Linear regression will be the death of us all. It's the way spreadsheet-oriented bureaucrats think. LR leads to models that are significantly revised weekly or even daily as the pandemic predictions have shown us. Nigh on useless. Way too much mathiness.<br /><br />Think AI. Think Bayes. Read "Origin of Species". Or even "Foundation's Triumph".<br /><br /><br />scidatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07152319593457629592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-82545027392309983812020-07-18T14:52:21.818-07:002020-07-18T14:52:21.818-07:00gregory byshenk:
I am extremely skeptical of the ...gregory byshenk:<br /><i><br />I am extremely skeptical of the individual country data. The problem here is that such modeling cannot take into account potential changes over such a time scale.<br /></i><br /><br />Well, psychohistory isn't designed to work for individuals.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-38617720918019326202020-07-18T14:14:41.251-07:002020-07-18T14:14:41.251-07:00Regarding the population article (which I haven...Regarding the population article (which I haven't studied), I think the global data may be of some value (bearing in mind the difficulty of modelling this sort of thing over the time scale involved), I am extremely skeptical of the individual country data. The problem here is that such modeling cannot take into account potential changes over such a time scale.<br /><br />As an example, the study predicts that the population of Italy, Spain, and Portugal will plummet, presumably on the basis of birthrate. Yet in all three countries we see significant change in immigration over the last 30 years. All three experienced very low immigration prior to 1990, but since then immigration has increased significantly in all three. I see no reason to expect that this will change (but also cannot predict that it will not).<br /><br />As another data point, a study commissioned by the Dutch parliament was just released, and it contains a range of predictions for population in 2050: from 18 million (only slightly more than today) to 22 million, depending on various different social and economic factors.<br /><br />So, in order to predict what will happen in Italy (for example), one must attempt to predict whether Italy will continue with its immigration patterns of the 21st century, return to those of the 20th, or do something completely different. So one can model various different scenarios (as did the Dutch CBS), but a conclusion (even based on a good model) that "the result will be X" seems impossible to be well-founded.gregory byshenkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08565517478782844083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-33892028228681925502020-07-18T13:22:16.353-07:002020-07-18T13:22:16.353-07:00It is an error to optimize energy production on a ...It is an error to optimize energy production on a fuel density metric. We don't buy energy flows. We buy reliable energy flows. Since the environment is the primary cause of uncertainty, that makes this a multi-variable optimization problem with at least one stochastic variable. I'd bet more than one.<br /><br />The real cost of energy for any new technology is always high to begin. After a generation passes and good engineers have had a crack at improving things, the real cost usually comes down. Fission designs haven't been allowed to iterate through the hands and minds of engineers, so we are a little stuck with that tech. That won't last forever, though. It really IS the high density option that should be included in a generation portfolio. [Besides... we need it for space travel. It's dark and cold out there among the asteroids.]Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-77847779378606148502020-07-18T11:56:10.519-07:002020-07-18T11:56:10.519-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-75028868529735194762020-07-18T11:51:01.810-07:002020-07-18T11:51:01.810-07:00Dr Brin:
I have no fear of a population catastrop...Dr Brin:<br /><i><br />I have no fear of a population catastrophe. Women who choose to have more kids will start to dominate the population. Tapering toward 5 billion would save so much but still leave us with a vast technological/educated/creative base to build a solar system civilization<br /></i><br /><br />Which achieves Thanos's objective without the murder and resentment.<br /><br />(Of course, to the right-wingers, the murder and resentment is the whole point of the exercise)Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-17047394340260239792020-07-18T11:47:42.327-07:002020-07-18T11:47:42.327-07:00Jon S:
hell, in Portland, OR, the supremacists ar...Jon S:<br /><i><br />hell, in Portland, OR, the supremacists are giving us a taste of their banana-republic wet dreams <br /></i><br /><br />I was just thinking today that the response to this should be to get some ads onto local right-wing radio and tv and social media showing footage of the stormTrumpers arresting white people and make it seem like this is the deep-state, Obama-appointed federal guv'mint coming after <b>them</b>. Which would cause the Bundy types to show up armed and itching for a fight <b>against</b> federal troops.<br /><br />I'm not sure who would win (or who to root for).Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-58982727085742796302020-07-18T10:57:15.178-07:002020-07-18T10:57:15.178-07:00TCB flywheels!. Compsite armor in case of the wors...TCB flywheels!. Compsite armor in case of the worst.<br /><br />I have no fear of a population catastrophe. Women who choose to have more kids will start to dominate the population. Tapering toward 5 billion would save so much but still leave us with a vast technological/educated/creative base to build a solar system civilization.<br /><br />There has always been a sustainable and low density energy source more important than any other... plants and agriculture and forests ans such. If houses and towns become self-sustaining with diffuse sources, and more local manufacture replaces vast fleets of freighters and tankers, then that frees up high density sources for industry and transportation.<br /><br /><br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-59939857612236147702020-07-18T09:17:04.513-07:002020-07-18T09:17:04.513-07:00Even if renewables are niche, I don't see it a... Even if renewables are niche, I don't see it as unimportant, a small step in a good direction. At this time, higher density energy sources aren't seen as worth the risk in the United States, as much industry has been off-shored, for a variety of reasons. I suspect safe reliable nuclear fission power is possible, technically, but less than feasible politically. Thinking of the shuttle tether experiment and the long ago microwave power transmission experiments, it might be possible to beam power from the planet's magnetic field usefully, though a large scale device might need to wait until we could exploit building material we found off-planet. And have a thought about the long term expense of deferred maintenance, for instance, a pumped hydro facility in Missouri failed a few years ago, necessitating the restoration of Johnson's shut ins State park (Have a look if you're out that way, they did a great job!) and that was just water.Tim H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12380916635831994159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-65323204955741082822020-07-18T08:20:55.816-07:002020-07-18T08:20:55.816-07:00"So we can either be a great nation or a Whit...<i>"So we can either be a great nation or a White nation. There is no third option."</i><br /><br />Have more faith in Americans, Daniel. Of course there's a third option. We can cease to be a White nation, but <i>still</i> screw it all up.<br /><br />I mean, yeah, there's no option where Whites stay the majority and we don't become a third-world country - hell, in Portland, OR, the supremacists are giving us a taste of their banana-republic wet dreams - but there are lots of ways to just completely blow the entire project...Jon S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13585842845661267920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-91844194611551264262020-07-18T07:27:00.462-07:002020-07-18T07:27:00.462-07:00I highly recommend Vaclav Smil's "Energy ...I highly recommend Vaclav Smil's "Energy and Civilization"<br /><br />Summary: The history of mankind's energy use has been one of ever increasing concentration of energy per unit of fuel (in terms of calorie per weight of fuel)<br /><br />Fire<br />Farming<br />Fossil Fuels<br />Fission (we got side tracked)<br />Fusion (someday)<br /><br />Renewables, which are inherently low density and dispersed (rough equivalent to the energy density of farming), are counter to the overall historical trend of ever more concentrated energy sources. This alone argues against their widespread adoption, not to mention that in real terms renewables will always remain more expensive (in terms of their EROEI) and less useful than fossil fuels. <br /><br />Adopting renewables wholesale will save the planet from global warming but will also increase the real cost of energy (this is a conspiracy of physics, not of the oil companies), and causing a real drop in overall wealth and standards of living for everyone (not just oil sheikhs and oligarchs).<br /><br />Barring any major breakthrough that allows us to leap frog to fusion, what we should be doing is maximizing fission energy sources (especially new developments like thorium and small modular reactors), utilizing off peak kWh to hydrolyze water to create a hydrogen fuel economy (whenever somebody compares fuel cell cars to EVs remember to include the massive cost of disposal for worn out li-ion batteries, fuel cells OTOH never wear out).<br /><br />Renewables will remain useful as niche energy sources as determined by the individual purchasing decision of users (residential and commercial) - not by a nationally enforced program.<br /><br />DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-9666382942072194722020-07-18T04:55:48.734-07:002020-07-18T04:55:48.734-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-62052854662178530902020-07-17T22:28:19.320-07:002020-07-17T22:28:19.320-07:00TCB,
a horde of the planet's smartest people ...TCB,<br /><br /><i>a horde of the planet's smartest people are, of course, looking for it</i><br /><br />Apparently, my state thinks we are close enough now with existing tech that they are buying it and placing it on the grid. My former employer is usually quite conservative about what gets added to the grid, so I'm sure the politics for this must be amusing. I sincerely doubt the actual companies owning batteries are any of the city-owned utilities. 8)<br /><br />It's not hard to imagine who is going to be printing his own money from this.<br /><br />In hindsight, I can see how we got here. I left the industry in 2009. Back then we talked about adding a bit more capacity to hybrid cars so they could store some of the cheaply priced base supply when they were charged overnight... and then sell it back during the day through aggregation utilities. It was an idea being tried by PJM. <br /><br />Today, though... there is Tesla. And Tesla's battery factory. And ubiquitous cell phones with their huge capacity batteries. I've got a lithium battery on the shelf sitting next to me right now that I could use to jump start my car. Cost me almost nothing because I won it in a Christmas raffle. It was a low-end prize. @#%@!<br /><br />The world has changed in the last decade.<br />I think I'll go re-work my IRA/401K investment plans now.<br />I SOOOOO want in on this.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.com