tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post7417307486178824182..comments2024-03-28T23:20:56.388-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: "Blowback" from progress -- and more scienceDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger126125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-34601404457304503722010-06-10T09:37:31.887-07:002010-06-10T09:37:31.887-07:00Dr.B said "Woozle, you leave out my hypothesi...Dr.B said <i>"Woozle, you leave out my hypothesis , under which "loyalty" to the foreign power is only secondary."</i><br /><br />My bad -- I was typing in a hurry, but <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/blackmail.htm" rel="nofollow">your blackmail hypothesis</a> is very much what I had in mind when I said "a powerful entity can often find ways to make continued loyalty expedient, using the stick when the carrot is all gone".<br /><br />I've been wondering for some time now if that is what has happened to Obama, although there is no shortage of less-sinister explanations.Woozlehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17948248776908775080noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-20679057139221701852010-06-09T18:48:49.598-07:002010-06-09T18:48:49.598-07:00Good stuff soc & Rewinn.
now onward!Good stuff soc & Rewinn.<br /><br />now onward!David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-84762977134388097212010-06-09T18:11:22.076-07:002010-06-09T18:11:22.076-07:00Secular Westernized types. These guys are happy t...<i>Secular Westernized types.</i> These guys are happy to embrace the West with varying degrees of enthusiasm. They will often refer to themselves as progressives or modernists. They often have an understanding of Islam completely outside the clerical and scholarly mainstream. Others may be atheists/agnostics and may drink alcohol and have boyfriends/girlfriends. In any case, they have less consternation about embracing Western ideas and aren’t too hung up about whether something is sufficiently “Islamic” or not. These categories are not boxes, of course. There's a spectrum and people fall along it.<br /><br />The debates that these groups have with each other are often civil, such as over dinner tables and at parties, and often not, such as suicide bombings, fatwas, beheadings etc.<br /><br />The point I'm making is that there is a real fight going on, it's practically a royal rumble. Sunni vs Shia. Shia vs. Wahhabi. Wahhabi vs. Sunni. Traditionalist vs Progressives. Conservative vs Modernists. Religious vs Secular. Old vs Young. Authoritarian vs Democratic. And on and on and on..<br /><br />My post has gone much longer than I had planned but when you read the papers in the West, you get no inkling of what's really going on there. The Islamic world is not a monolith. You're talking about over fifty countries, comprising a plethora of languages, cultures, histories and races over three continents. There are far too many generalizations being made and I think it's a bit unfair.socnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-33457223678186619052010-06-09T18:08:37.517-07:002010-06-09T18:08:37.517-07:00"I have never swallowed the Iran-Sauudi hatre..."I have never swallowed the Iran-Sauudi hatred thing. I see plenty of signs they share common cause and hype up their "enmity" in order to keep the west lulled."<br /><br />A guy I briefly met at University once told us about an older friend of his who was in the Pakistani army. In the 1980s, (atleast I think it was in the 80s) this friend was sent to Saudi Arabia with a small contingent as an advisor. The whole time the Pakistanis were there, they were under the impression that all the weapons the Saudis were planning to buy were intended for Israel. It was with this enemy in mind that the Pakistanis offered their advice. However, they discovered that they were mistaken when one of the Saudis asked a question about the best way to attack Tehran. It turned out the Saudis couldn't care less about Israel. It was Ayatollah Khomeini’s ambition to spread the Islamic Revolution throughout the Muslim world that had the Saudis panicked. <br /><br />In fact, the American invasion of Iraq brought great consternation to the Sunni Arab leaders because it would remove Sunni Saddam and unleash the Shia. If the Iraqi Shia escape Saddam's yoke then the Shia minorities in other Arab countries might receive encouragment of a kind that would be most inconvenient to their Sunni rulers.<br /><br />There really is a struggle going on in the Muslim world. In many of the big Muslim cities you'll find women covered head to toe <i>and</i> women in tank tops; you'll find pious men with beards who spend most of their time in mosques <i>and</i> westernized types who drink and go clubbing. You'll find this sort of thing in Pakistan too, by the way, the place where the Taliban are spreading day by day.<br /><br />Over the last couple of decades two groups have grown rapidly:<br /><br /><i>Political Islam types.</i> These guys want to build something called the "Islamic State." It's not clear precisely what is meant by this. Every Tom, Dick and Harry..pardon me..every Abdul, Ibrahim, and Muhammad has his own definition. They range from authoritarian to slightly less authoritarian. Often the proponents of these are young, naive and ignorant. I suspect we wouldn't have to worry about half of these guys if they were allowed alcohol and girlfriends.<br /><br />There are also those who advocate something called Islamic Democracy. Some of these people are bald faced liars as the ideas they describe aren't democratic at all and they know it. <br /><br />Then there are those who are genuine. These people are reasonable and sincere. Once you explain to them why the idea of an Islamic democracy doesn't really make a lot of sense, they'll either concede the point or have a troubled, confused look on their face. What you realize is that while they are attracted to many Western ideas they still want to maintain their Islamic identity. They don't want to turn their backs on Islamic culture, history, or civilization. If a Muslim country becomes liberal, secular, and democratic, can it still, in any sense, be considered Islamic? If not, is it now Western? If not, what exactly is it?<br /><br />Cont'd...socnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-69475476757302790852010-06-09T16:33:26.218-07:002010-06-09T16:33:26.218-07:00"Btw... Rewinn, in case you perceive insult.....<i>"Btw... Rewinn, in case you perceive insult... there is none intended. I am being snippish but (in my eye) no more than normal here. You are valued."</i><br /><br />I over-reacted.<br /><br />If I believed in the supernatural, I would believe that there is something about the Middle East that makes people crazy.rewinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14008105385364113371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-25033490522901037352010-06-09T15:11:30.363-07:002010-06-09T15:11:30.363-07:00I have never swallowed the Iran-Sauudi hatred thin...I have never swallowed the Iran-Sauudi hatred thing. I see plenty of signs they share common cause and hype up their "enmity" in order to keep the west lulled.<br /><br />As for "next foe" after macho? Well, what I never figured was a rage war waged by our OWN macho types, against the very same America they claim to love. That's my big worry, not Islamist radicals.<br /><br />But if we get past this, it will boil down to East-vs- West, of course. I hope by then it will be simply a peaceful competition of worldviews. But one will rule humanity for centuries.<br /><br />They think - with some evidence - that the West is insane.<br /><br />But I look at the Fermi paradox and I see their method as one that has obviously been tried a million times out there -- because it is obvious and was the default system on Earth. And thus, it should NOT be what we try, because the silence suggests all have failed, out there!<br /><br />The Western Enlightenment is different, unusual, darwinistically bizarre, yet filled with emergent properties and positive sum games. It is not likely to have appeared very often, out there, though its potential MAY be unlimited (if we aren't crazy).<br /><br />That is a logical argument for hoping the West "wins"... in the sense that the world capital will be in China, and we'll all speak Chinese... but we'll also be rambunctious individualists and joyfully argumentative.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-88367287396694982692010-06-09T15:05:17.480-07:002010-06-09T15:05:17.480-07:00Transparency has little chance in this administrat...Transparency has little chance in this administration:<br /><br />http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2010/06/08/legacy/index.htmlyamahaelevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15799288155220272214noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-14939260224129109862010-06-09T14:50:21.534-07:002010-06-09T14:50:21.534-07:00A thought experiment — what if Hamas Had Attacked ...A thought experiment — <a href="http://dissidentvoice.org/2010/06/what-if-hamas-had-attacked-humanitarian-ships-in-international-waters/" rel="nofollow">what if Hamas Had Attacked Humanitarian Ships in International Waters?</a>. Say they hijacked, in the same fashion, an unarmed flotilla involving dozens of countries headed to Israel with relief supplies.Naumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06741963276339044331noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-39432631289925894882010-06-09T12:59:43.436-07:002010-06-09T12:59:43.436-07:00And what's your prediction for the next foe of...And what's your prediction for the next foe of progress once the tribal threat is diminished? Because I see two major and probably unstoppable cancers growing in tribalism that will bring about its death: the spread of technology and the spread of information through that technology. The only way to stop this spread is to eschew technology itself... at which point the tribal group becomes a minor threat at best. <br /><br />What we are seeing with Al Qaida and the Taliban and similar groups is the death-rattle of tribalism. This death is going to take decades and the twitching body of tribalism will harm many as it dies, but it will die or find itself powerless (at which point there is no need to worry about it as it will have been defanged).<br /><br />There is a question whether Authoritarian Capitalist societies are viable over the long term. While China is giving it a good try, history (Germany going into World War II) suggests that Authoritarian governments are unable to remain viable over the long term. Iran is an excellent example of this; there is little doubt that ultimately the current regime in Iran will fall. The only question is how big a bloodbath will occur once the regime dies; the spread of information has proven cancerous for the current regime... and that knowledge cannot be unlearned no matter how hard the current regime tries to force its people to ignore it.<br /><br />This is also why Iran is such a threat when it comes to the Bomb. If Iran gets the Bomb, it will use it. The question is, will it use it on Saudi Arabia... or on Israel. The Saudis are closer and have hated Americans based there... but Israel has been used as the boogieman for the longest time, and the Israelis are dehumanized in the eyes of many Iranians. <br /><br />The reason for this upcoming conflict is that Iran needs to unite its people behind a common foe. This can be the Saudis (who aren't following the "true" faith) or the Israelis (who repress other Arabs and aren't Muslim). This is similar to what the Germans did with the Jews, Russians, and anyone else who could be safely hated by German propagandists. The question is, will the Bomb be used as a means of keeping the U.S. (and the world) out of the fight, holding everyone hostage lest they launch nukes at Europe... or if they plan on destroying a Jewish city and wipe out millions in one blow. I suspect it's the former, as Iran knows they can't stand against the U.S. alone... and are unlikely to have many allies if they end up having to fight the U.S.<br /><br />Rob H.Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-29891483150392547982010-06-09T12:35:50.998-07:002010-06-09T12:35:50.998-07:002) Our early 21st century adversary would be some ...2) Our early 21st century adversary would be some branch of "machismo" that deeply dreaded female emancipation. I thought muslim machismo the likely version. But there were other possibles.<br /><br />>>What led you to think so, if I may ask?<br /><br />I take a Big Picture view of historical forces. Basic themes recur and drive nations/movements. The biggest is tribalism, with the diameter of the tribal circle of inclusion proportional to several basic things... power, geography, but above all cultural values of satiability and levels of actual satiation (two very different things that CAN combine to create sympathy and otherness.)<br /><br />Another huge driver is conspiratorial oligarchy. 98% of historical societies were ruled by groups of thugs + owners + priests who vigorously repressed competition from anyone else, especially the peasants. <br /><br /> In "egalitarian" communist countries, the Nomenklatura party caste quickly became a feudal aristocracy. The only difference was that the priests murmured unctuous slogans about worker paradise on Earth, instead of heaven.<br /><br />Both of these drivers are inherently deeply inimical to the Enlightenment, with its notion of unleashing the maximum number of empowered, knowledgeable and creative competitors.<br /><br />In particular, once communism fell, it was clear that the Enlightenment would deeply threaten tribalists, and macho tribalists especially. Unleashing 50% of the human race (women) to compete openly is deeply loathsome to many on this planet. And there will be no compromise.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-82751203116422469532010-06-09T04:20:34.685-07:002010-06-09T04:20:34.685-07:00Interesting stuff here:
http://www.time.com/fake_c...Interesting stuff here:<br />http://www.time.com/fake_chicken<br />Steps in the right direction are to be treasured.<br />"alinit", alien hair infestation.Tim H.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-84781582899344999262010-06-08T23:47:21.646-07:002010-06-08T23:47:21.646-07:00A nice piece about how the real Regan was differen...A nice piece about how the real Regan was different from the the figure conservatives have built on his name:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/06/07/think_again_ronald_reagan" rel="nofollow">http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/06/07/think_again_ronald_reagan</a>sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-9605890714369864292010-06-08T21:54:08.544-07:002010-06-08T21:54:08.544-07:001) that the Berlin Wall would fall soon (among the...<i>1) that the Berlin Wall would fall soon (among the only people saying that)... and...<br /><br />2) Our early 21st century adversary would be some branch of "machismo" that deeply dreaded female emancipation. I thought muslim machismo the likely version. But there were other possibles.</i><br /><br />What led you to think so, if I may ask?<br /><br />wayerr: shoddy GPS brand.David McCabehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16603857353437134459noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-10911272564646740612010-06-08T18:45:17.736-07:002010-06-08T18:45:17.736-07:00Woozle, you leave out my hypothesis , under which ...Woozle, you leave out my hypothesis , under which "loyalty" to the foreign power is only secondary.<br /><br />The principal method, that can be arranged by any group that is hostile, smart and endowed with unlimited funds, is blackmail. Especially when the target has a very checkered past and a limited history of self-control.<br /><br />http://www.davidbrin.com/blackmail.htmDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-85455889346818256332010-06-08T18:02:21.454-07:002010-06-08T18:02:21.454-07:00This is off-topic, but I saw this post and immedia...This is off-topic, but I saw <a href="http://acandidworld.com/2010/06/02/gop-stall-tactics-as-an-art-form/" rel="nofollow">this post</a> and immediately thought of the whole "incompetence vs. malice" debate which came up frequently during the latter Bush years (emphasis mine):<br /><br /><i>The Volokh Conspiracy <a href="http://volokh.com/2010/06/01/sabotage-or-how-dilbert-won-the-war/" rel="nofollow">recalls</a> a list of tactics promulgated by the OSS for use by allied agents in positions of responsibility inside Nazi Germany — the name of the game, apparently, was to <b>maximize damage</b> while maintaining your cover, by <b>using feigned incompetence and stalling</b> to generate the kinds of failures that are <b>equally attributable to either malice, or just forgivable incompetence</b>.<br /><br />Clever, but these tactics should all strike a more familiar and menacing chord. They might as well be copied out of the playbook of the Republican opposition, the one they’ve been running day in and day out since January 20, 2009. Examples:...</i><br /><br />I don't know why he thinks it began only when Obama took office. Off the top of my head, I can think of evidence going back to even before <i>Bush</i> assumed office (remember those misplaced papers from his governorship?).<br /><br />All that remains to determine is the motive. My theory is that the goal is personal power and wealth. Secret alliances with foreign families are neither precluded nor required, but there certainly would be no loyalty once it was no longer expedient. (Of course, a powerful entity can often find ways to <i>make</i> continued loyalty expedient, using the stick when the carrot is all gone.)<br /><br />Republican leadership is defined by the most ruthlessly self-interested, and Republican followership is defined by whoever can be most easily manipulated.Woozlehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17948248776908775080noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-363297428127804562010-06-08T17:36:52.945-07:002010-06-08T17:36:52.945-07:00Robert I have long held that our best way of deali...Robert I have long held that our best way of dealing with tyrannical regimes is offering all citizens of those nations free internet by satellite and peer-to-peer cell phones dropped in by the millions.<br /><br />It would NOT guarantee friendship. Nor does democracy. But it is a big step.<br /><br /> What guarantees victory for western civilization is the emancipation and education of women. And way back in 1984 I was on record predicting:<br /><br />1) that the Berlin Wall would fall soon (among the only people saying that)... and...<br /><br />2) Our early 21st century adversary would be some branch of "machismo" that deeply dreaded female emancipation. I thought muslim machismo the likely version. But there were other possibles.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-8264190356407250462010-06-08T16:14:43.579-07:002010-06-08T16:14:43.579-07:00Couple interesting stories:
Your Brain on Compute...Couple interesting stories:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/07/technology/07brain.html" rel="nofollow">Your Brain on Computers</a>; how multi-tasking information overload effects synapse development in adults<br /><br />and<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/08/technology/08homefront.html?partner=rss&emc=rss" rel="nofollow">Military Chatrooms from California to Afghanistan</a>; how IM generation is monitoring battlefield intel and redirecting it to troops on the ground in near real-time.<br /><br />As someone in front of four monitors with 3 OS's running all day long, half-dozen web pages open and 4-8 chat sessions at any one time, yeah, can feel a bit fractured at times. I really relate to the old Mac Co-operative Multitasking form of working. I am really skipping from task, to task, to task, all day long and feel physically drained at the end of the day. <br /><br />I wonder how long the 'kids' they have doing the same thing for soldiers on the ground will last. The stress there has to be really extreme.JuhnDonnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06795417373366495092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-82850683649859488422010-06-08T16:05:01.889-07:002010-06-08T16:05:01.889-07:00There is a solution to the Arab/Palestine problem....There is a solution to the Arab/Palestine problem. It is a subtle solution, and it is slowly working its way through Arabic society even as we speak. Unfortunately, Israeli hard-nose antics only helps to poison this well water that brought down the Iron Curtain: the dissemination of knowledge. <br /><br />Instead of barricading Gaza, Israel should be putting up electrical wire and transmission towers and offer the Gazans free internet and the electricity needed to run it. Then they should smuggle in cheap laptops with Wifi, smart phones, and other such devices, and let the Gazans (and the West Bank for that matter) peruse the Internet and <i>learn</i>. And when someone fires a rocket or a grenade at them? Ignore it. Accept it as childishness by a core of fanatics who can't help but hate.<br /><br />By refusing to react to violence by Hamas and by offering free information access to the Palestinians, you spike the well from which future fanatics breed. You stop getting suicide bombers, because once manpower is scarce the terrorist organizations will stop sending men in to die. And as even the terrorists gain in knowledge, they start valuing their own lives... and will alter their game plan so that if they do commit a terrorist act, it's from a distance to try and keep from losing their own lives.<br /><br />If you let Gazans live, you will see the hate fade. Hell, acknowledge Hamas and ask them to accept Israel in return, knowing full well that Hamas will refuse but that you extended a hand in friendship and the world will see that it was slapped down. (To really rub it in, do this once a year. Offer that hand in friendship several times, so that the irrationality of Hamas is exposed to the world.)<br /><br />Knowledge is power. But by spreading knowledge around, you empower the people so that maybe they will make choices not based on passion and hate... but out of logic and reason. <br /><br />Rob H., who truly is a dreamer. ^^;;Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-89830477832116831142010-06-08T14:14:33.325-07:002010-06-08T14:14:33.325-07:00“What is it about being Arab that requires Arabs s...“What is it about being Arab that requires Arabs solve the problems that Westerners created?”<br /><br />Sorry, I don’t get it. It is HUMAN to want to solve problems. You have a situation. Whining about colonialism is a sickness that modern tyrants in the developing world use to excuse their own ineptitude or corrupt failure to rule wisely. In re the Arab world, were the British worse than the Turks had been? In every conceivable way they were better. <br /><br />Moreover, the Hashemites led by Feisel (played by Alec Guiness in Lawrence of Arabia) were modernists who wanted progress, education, social mobility, a modicum of democracy and science. Tellignly, Feisel wanted to invite the Jews of Europe to “come home.” There was plenty of land and he wanted his fellow semites -- fellow “sons of Abraham” to return with investment capital and their advanced knowledge to set up universities all over the Middle East, in exchange for a principality of their own, roughly where Israel is today. The Hashemites weren’t perfect... there is only one left, in Jordan... but they showed how differently things might have gone, had leadership in that area not shifted over to bona fide nazis.<br /><br />I do not favor the present blockade of Gaza. I believe the Israelis are being shortsighted. I believe the long range strategy of the arab reactionaries is bearing fruit - pushing the Israelis into becoming yet another middle eastern pit of anger and stubbornness.<br /><br />But your stubborn refusal to answer questions continues. Can you name another refugee population that was not allowed to build new lives elsewhere? Lacking a peace accord, were the Israelis simply to solve the crisis alone? You see NO fault in the cynical regimes that deliberately sabotaged every chance of the Palestinians to better themselves... or simply MOVE elsewhere?<br />Btw... Rewinn, in case you perceive insult... there is none intended. I am being snippish but (in my eye) no more than normal here. You are valued.<br /><br />But so long as textbooks in the region preach annihilation... along with eventual collapse of Western Civilization... and as long as strong evidence points to deliberate manipulation aimed at destruction of OUR nation, I see little choice in maintaining (with criticism) the alliance we've got.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-79976288674010385832010-06-08T09:33:47.431-07:002010-06-08T09:33:47.431-07:00Of the five Arab armies that attacked the nascent ...Of the five Arab armies that attacked the nascent Jewish state in 1948, only two were actually committed to putting an end to its' existence. The Egyptians were interested only in taking Gaza and the Jordanians wanted the West Bank. The Iraqis were under Jordanian command and followed their objectives. The Lebanese and Syrians came in with the explicit intention of stopping the formation of any Jewish state.<br /><br />In any case, the Jewish Haganah actually outnumbered the five Arab armies combined and succeeded in holding on to the land given to them by the UN.<br /><br />Another point, the Jews who began to immigrate into Ottoman Palestine starting at the end of the 19th century were Europeans. They had European mannerisms, dress, habits and spoke European languages. They had a European way of looking at the world and had nothing but contempt for the local "orientals." A contempt they extended to middle eastern Jews as well.<br /><br />Worryingly, they spoke of building their own country in Palestine. Now, Europe had conquered most of the world at this time and, of course, the Ottomans would succumb to it in WWI. These people weren't seen simply as foreign Jews, but significantly, as European colonizers, at a time when European colonization was the great fear. Consequently, Israel is seen to this day as a foreign, colonial, settler state.<br /><br />None of this is meant to justify contemporary Arab attitudes towards Israel. However, it's worth keeping this in the background. While Jews see Israel as their homeland and a place to be safe from persecution, the Arabs see it through the eyes of colonialism. This permits both sides to see themselves as the underdogs and the victims. Israel sees itself surrounded by a sea of anti-semitic Arabs itching to wipe it out. The Arabs see a military goliath, backed by the greatest superpower the world has ever known, at whose hands they've tasted defeat and humiliatian from the moment the country was founded.<br /><br />Israel needs to check its fear and paranoia. It needs to realize that militarily it's the top dog and has the unconditional backing of the US. The Arabs need to swallow their pride and let bygones be bygones. They got beat, accept it and build something better for their kids. The Arab League proposals they put together a few years back offering to recognize Israel in exchange for the establishment of a viable Palestinian state and, the ever controversial. "right of return," was a good start. Even Iran endorsed the proposal.<br /><br />Pity it didn't get anywhere. Israel dismissed it out of hand, if I recall correctly. Olmert was the PM at the time, I think.socnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-27835992350076625682010-06-08T09:30:22.236-07:002010-06-08T09:30:22.236-07:00Part of the reason I've been so adamant in my ...Part of the reason I've been so adamant in my comments about getting off of oil and away from an oil-based economy (I don't quite see algae-based oils as an oil-based economy, at least not as it currently stands) is because I want to stop U.S. dollars from going to certain nations. I suspect that China is doing the same (developing technologies to wean itself from oil), but for a different reason: they have an even greater dependence on oil than the U.S. because they don't have much in the way of sizable oil reserves in China. Hopefully the EU would follow suit if and when the U.S. gets off the oil wagon.<br /><br />Without oil money, several regions would very likely destabilize. These include much of the Middle East (with the exceptions of Israel and probably Jordan), several corrupt governments in Africa, and Russia. Due to its natural gas reserves (which Europe needs for heating), Russia may survive long enough to shift its economy (and maybe even develop its industry). By destabilize, I mean that their governments would no longer have the massive amounts of money they currently have to live corrupt lifestyles and indulge in military expenditures and the like. We may even see uprisings as the people start revolting against a weakened government.<br /><br />Terrorist organizations would see their own financing dry up. Some would shift to selling drugs to make money (and some already do this, as they see the writing on the wall and realize that the hand that feeds them money one day may withdraw it the next). Others will wither on the vine.<br /><br />Oil itself has financed much in the way of violence in the world. Getting off of it will result in an increase in violence for the short term... and then see it decline as weapon supplies start to dwindle and "freedom fighters" drift away to better paying (and safer!) professions.<br /><br />The ironic thing is, in the short term after the U.S. kicks its oil habit we may become a net exporter of oil. But that would depend on third world nation purchases of oil and gas... and if more and more automobile manufacturers switch to electric or other non-oil formats, we would see those market likewise dry up.<br /><br />Hmm. I wonder if I should include something like that starting in the scifi stories I've plotted out... originally I was going to have sections of the Middle East a radioactive wasteland after a war between Israel and Iran, but this might make for a more interesting variation.<br /><br />Rob H.Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-31906509275593984812010-06-08T08:38:12.204-07:002010-06-08T08:38:12.204-07:00On an unrelated note, PSTD as been linked with Dem...On an unrelated note, <a href="http://www.webmd.com/mental-health/news/20100607/posttraumatic-stress-disorder-linked-to-dementia" rel="nofollow">PSTD as been linked with Dementia</a>, though whether PSTD increases the chances of dementia, or if it is a symptom of higher chances for dementia is unclear.Ilithi Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10300247936272572280noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-74627449191578547382010-06-08T08:19:10.122-07:002010-06-08T08:19:10.122-07:00No more foreign aid to the mideast? They might hav...No more foreign aid to the mideast? They might have to develop their own tech base? Saudi money currently going to missionary efforts might have to be put into development? Is there a downside, aside from lost sales to "Death, inc." and Americans becoming persona non grata in the mideast?<br /> BTW, Robert, just a case of "Sauce for the gander, etc."Tim H.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-91835228720166368402010-06-08T07:30:05.093-07:002010-06-08T07:30:05.093-07:00This topic brings to mind a conversation I had in ...This topic brings to mind a conversation I had in Egypt with our guide, a very bright, open minded individual. He would not say much when our guard was around (this guy packed a small machine pistol and was officially there to protect us from terrorists, but also to discourage any discussion critical to the Mubarak regime).<br />Anyway, Ali said that all the aid money the US sent Egypt was wasted, and worse. It went into the pockets of corrupt military/government officials and did nothing to preserve peace or help the common man. He felt it would be a favor to cut it off entirely. A radical notion.<br />But since Egypt and Isreal are two of the biggest recipients of our largesse, I think its fair to ask if the world might not be a better place if we cut military aid to both of them, and demanded accountability for every cent we send for non military aid.<br />Maybe they would have to go back to threatening each other with <br />19th century technology. <br /><br />Seems a slight improvement to me anyway.<br /><br />Tacitus2Tacitus2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-67541957800051002172010-06-08T06:53:55.809-07:002010-06-08T06:53:55.809-07:00Rob,
I hadn't noticed tempers getting particu...Rob,<br /><br />I hadn't noticed tempers getting particularly hot... Passions rising, sure, and some comments lean towards the offensive line, but I haven't seen anything that I would call hostility, and there is, too, the thick skin we promote around here.<br /><br />That said, a reminder to focus more on saying "You're wrong because X, Y, Z" instead of "You're wrong because R is stupid" never hurt any discussion.Ilithi Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10300247936272572280noreply@blogger.com