tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post6833239391823094730..comments2024-03-29T00:39:31.629-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: World Cultures Compete (as memes) Over Human DestinyDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-51163906489200474752008-09-06T16:38:00.000-07:002008-09-06T16:38:00.000-07:00As interesting as neoteny is when applied to human...As interesting as neoteny is when applied to human evolution, consider the implications when applied to societal transformation. The same principles apply, accept that the opposite of neoteny (condensation of adult features in the young of descendants) emerge when exploring the appearance of patrifocal societies since their ascendancy almost 6000 years ago.<BR/><BR/>See http://www.neoteny.org/?cat=12 for details.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09931803158281416433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-61039427301177751312007-12-13T20:23:00.000-08:002007-12-13T20:23:00.000-08:00(Zorgon again, logon gone)Now I'm going to say som...(Zorgon again, logon gone)<BR/><BR/>Now I'm going to say some very positive things about America's economic system.<BR/><BR/>Dr. Brin's point about China's current pollution-based growth rate being unsustainable is of course dead right, but China faces even worse problems in becoming an economic superpower. Namely, Confucianism and the first-born son issue.<BR/><BR/>Brooks' article should really be called "The Dictatorship of Memorization-Based Tests." It's not obvious how memorization = talent. In fact, the two seem mutually exclusive. <BR/><BR/>Apple Computer would not have been possible in a Confucian society, because Jobs & Woz would've been told to get lost by Chinese venture capitalists 'cause they were too young. The decerebrated adoration of age & experience embedded in Confucianism proves lethal to schmucks from nowhere who are young and inexperienced but have a great new idea. Yet this is exactly what drives a lot of the tech economy. <BR/><BR/>When you go down the list, you see company and company that was founded by young kids too brash and too raw to know that what they were trying was impossible. Google, Apple, Microsoft, Venter's own ventures, and on and on. (Notice that most of these involve technology, however. It's a different story in finance, where new innovative financial instruments like CDOs got us into the current subprime mortgage mess. Confucianism would work much better in finance than in the tech sector.)<BR/><BR/>China has a huge problem with the "first-born son" obsession. The saying goes "Three generations from start to finish" for Chinese businesses. You see it over and over again -- some entrepeneur builds a great business, then he hands it over to his first-born son who isn't remotely qualified to run it purely because of the Confucian requirement that family is sacred and the first-born son must inherit the business...and the business collapses within anther generation. Americans don't suffer from this Confucian confusion. Once an American entrepeneur builds a successful business, we hand it over to professional managers, not the first-born son, and that's big plus for the American economy.<BR/><BR/>Also, confucianism emphasizes conformity, and here once again America kicks China's ass. American mavericks have proven <I><B>crucial</B></I> across the board for kick-starting America's powerhouse economy. As just one example, the delivery company DHL was started by a guy who turned in his thesis proposing the company for his economics degree...only to be told by his professors that his business model was unrealistic, his business plan was crap, and his entire concept was a deluded fantasy. So he went out and created the business himself and became a billionaire. <BR/><BR/>In China, DHL would never have existed. "The nail that stands out gets pounded down" attitude hamstrings a Confucian society. It's just <I>lethal</I> in a modern global economy.<BR/><BR/>India's weak spot remains its horrible caste system and its constant denigration and maltreatment of women. Bride-burning remains epidemic in India. They're going to have to fix both these problems in order for India to even <I>think</I> about becoming a major player on the global economic stage. <BR/><BR/>Dr. Brin seems to think that it's a black/white either/or choice twixt top-down pyramidal social structures and diamond-shaped free market social structures. But the top 1% of Americans by income own or control more than 50% of all American assets, so it's arguable just how much of a diamond shaped social structure America actually has. Contray to the Ponzi-scheme claims of the "globalization" (TRANSLATION: Global robber barony) scammers,<B> "The research shows that the global distribution of income is very unequal and the inequality has not been falling over time. In some regions poverty and income inequality have become much worse. "<BR/></B>http://www.wider.unu.edu/research/2006-2007/2006-2007-1/wider-wdhw-launch-5-12-2006/wider-wdhw-report-5-12-2006.pdf<BR/><BR/>Also, look at how many totally unpopular initiatives have been rammed through by America's ruling elite: Most Americans despised the 3/5 clause, but Southern slave-owners forced it into the constitution. Americans hated the gold standard and demanded a move to a silver standard...but that never happened. Americans loathed the idea of entering WW II...yet FDR weaseled us into the war. The Korean War was profoundly unpupular, yet American got forced to fight it. The Viet Nam war requires no discussion. NAFTA is overwhelmingly hated by the bottom 80% of the population, yet it was rammed through. The Patriot Act is intensely loathed, yet it's law. The DMCA, the current "thought crime" bill...<I><B>initiative after intiiative hated and despised by the bottom 80% of the poulation have always somehow gotten rammed through in America. </B></I>How is this meaningfully different from the Chinese top-down autocratic system?<BR/><BR/>Also - America has its own massive GAR economy-wide planning bureacracy, it's called the Pentaqon. U.S. economists deride Japanese keiretsus and Korean chaebols for their "Soviet-style" planning bureacracies as "grossly inefficient" and "overly command-and-control oriented" and "fixated on controlling the next 5 to 10 years of the economy, even though no one can predict that far ahead." <I><B>But America does the same thing, we just call it the Pentagon budget.</B></I> <BR/>When the Japanese or the Koreans want to develop some new economic initiative like nationwide new cellphone tech, their keiretsus and chaebols pool the resources of many interlocking companies that conspire in massive restraint of trade to set up a planning committee to create the new product or service and dictate how their economies will work 5, 6, 10 years down the road. It often fails and it's often inefficient. <BR/><BR/>But America does the same thing! <BR/>Our entire computer industry came out of the minuteman missile project, which used the increased accuracy made possible by IC-based digital guitdance computers to offset our smaller sized nuclear warheads. The Pentagon plans 5, 6, 10 years ahead, and dumps enormous amounts of money into tech which then stimulates the growth of our economy. And the Pentagon is wrong just as often and it's just as inefficient as the Japanese or Korean economic planning bureaucracies. Look at the huge amount of money wasted in AI, a completely failed research project now as dead as alchemy...yet AI "research" in America <I>still continues</I> to waste vast amounts of money because it was a Frankenstein monster brought to life by vast infusions of Pentagon cash in the 70s and 80s.<BR/>Why no research on nuclear-powered electric light rail in America? Because it doesn't have obvious military applications so the Pentagon won't fund it -- but the U.S. government sure funded the hell out of the superhighway system at the behest of the U.S. military. Instead of blaming oil cartels for our lack of American rail transport, I'd blame the Pentagon. Trucks 'n tanks are great for Pentagon battle planners...electric light rail, not so much.<BR/><BR/>The internet and current CDMA cellphone tech and GPS and most of our other current tech came out of the Pentagon's R&D programs. It's horribly inefficent and it's a top-down command-and-control sytem. Where's the funding for non-military tech like more efficient electric cars, more efficient light rail? There is none because these don't have obvious military applications. <BR/>Yet the Pentagon budget dwarfs the budgets of Japan's keiretsus or Korea's chaebols, and the Pentagon is much more inefficient and the corrupt system for awarding Pewntagon contracts, which is basically a revolving door for ex-military-men, is even more inefficient and more corrupt than the corruption-riddlge Japanese or Korean systems. Just read "The Men Who Stared At Goats" for a good look at the sheer amount of wasteful craziness involved in Pentagon planning & R&D.<BR/><BR/>But the biggest problem with using the Pentagon R&D budget as a substitute for the Japanese keiretsus or Korean chaebols to develop our economy is the fact that when you pump up the Pentagon budget on steroids, <B>"capabilities create intentions,"</B> as the Army war college likes to say. In fact, that's the whole <I>raison d'etre</I> of the neocons. We have a big military, so we might as well use it. This is a <B>huge</B> problem. America would be much better off without its giant outsize military sucking our economy dry like a tumor feeding off a cancer patient. But America's stuck in a Catch-22. Ever since WW II, America's economic growth has been largely geared to Pentagon R&D and America now doesn't know how to spur tech innovation and simtulate new business growth <B><I>without</I> </B>having that Pentagon budget monkey on its back. That's one respect in which Europe and Japan and asia are much better situated economically than America -- they don't need to feed a military monster in order to get DARPANET or integrated circuits or basic research in molecular biology. <B>Craig Venter's earliest funding, remember, came from the Pentagon weapons research division.</B>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-62077839841336961512007-12-13T08:02:00.000-08:002007-12-13T08:02:00.000-08:00My first thought is that Paul Kennedy's seminal "T...My first thought is that Paul Kennedy's seminal "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" is a better view of empire conflicts and is based on economics, not culture. That doesn't mean that culture isn't a factor in economic growth, it is, but that we need to understand the ability to create economic growth and project power. On this analysis, the religious fundamentalists (e.g. Islamic terrorist groups) will never be more than a nuisance like crime, rather than a globe spanning means of rule unless Islam embraces the tools of capitalism as the west has.<BR/><BR/>Will China or India succeed the West with their models? Firstly, much of what you say about the West is US centric. Europe, the seat of the Enlightenment is still of comparable size and economic power as the US, but also has retained its professional civil service and not degraded it as in the US. Is it possible for China or India to overtake the West? Let's not be too premature to accept the consensus view that this will happen. Look what happened to the supposed hegemony of Japan. China's growth is based on some very unsustainable practices, and it may well be that China "blows up" as it tries to extend its growth. <BR/><BR/>The problem with strong hierarchies is that they tend to become very inflexible and resistant to change. Thus one should look to corporations as models of hierarchical states. What we see is that whilst large corporations do survive purely on momentum, they are eventually supplanted by small ones. The business literature explains why this happens, and I think it is almost inevitable.<BR/><BR/>The disruptive driver of change is technology. On the basis of the last 200 years of history, technological development will remain a disruptor of the status quo. As long as technology can continue to develop, it will be disruptive, destabilizing hierarchies. I think this is antithetical to the Chinese governance model (as it is to the Western model as well IMO). <BR/><BR/>If anything, I think we will see the rise of smaller states, although this may require the shield of a Pax Americana to flourish, although a Pax China may work too.Alex Tolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01556422553154817988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-29618128514005154182007-12-12T22:37:00.000-08:002007-12-12T22:37:00.000-08:00Gotcha, Stefan. But remember that your reflex to ...Gotcha, Stefan. But remember that your reflex to worry about cultural stereotyping being unjust IS a reflection of neo-enlightenment values. Tolerance and self-reproach as articles of faith.<BR/><BR/>Note that my CORE point is not about East West or US-China.<BR/><BR/>It is that there are two CONCEIVABLE general approaches to governance. Either 99% of human cultures had it right and paternalistic elites shall protect the masses... while exploiting them and protecting self-status...<BR/><BR/>...or the emergent properties of multi-scaled accountability arenas combine with other enlightenment principles, fostering reciprocal criticism based upon individual citizen sovereignty and permanent challenges to elites.<BR/><BR/>Of course in the flattened world there will be rich folks and elites... and the neo-confucian world will have some rights and social mobility. There's overlap!<BR/><BR/>Still, truly, this is an either-or choice. At the fundamental level. Because these are attractor states on either side of an unstable cusp.<BR/><BR/>e-sheep is available! How much would it cost simply to buy it for him for 5 years?David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-8878860882631015462007-12-12T21:50:00.000-08:002007-12-12T21:50:00.000-08:00Huh? I never thought of myself as very Panglossian...Huh? I never thought of myself as very Panglossian.<BR/><BR/>Patrick Farley changed the layout of his blog page a few weeks back (without making a post!), so he's presumably still alive, but it certainly looks like he did not renew the e-sheep registration. He may have burned out, or hit a very rough monetary spot. Either way . . . what a loss. A very smart and talented and emotionally honest artist. (If I ever win the lottery, Farley will be getting FedEx boxes of cash every time he completes a chapter of his comics.)<BR/><BR/>I'm increasingly uncomfortable with the whole "world cultures in conflict" notion. I think the cultures / meme empires being discussed are a convenient construct with little basis is reality. The problem is, they are a USEFUL construct . . . but useful to the wrong people for the wrong reasons. The labels are too simple to describe what is really up.<BR/><BR/>Here's a disturbing notion: A hundred years from now, simplicity-seeking pop-historians break down the cultures and nations of our time into Exploitationists (China, The USA) and Adaptationists. And the former are depicted as malicious, corrupt, and deluded as the Nazis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-45483520688640231532007-12-12T21:27:00.000-08:002007-12-12T21:27:00.000-08:00Oh nooooooo!Patrick Farley has lost his web site? ...Oh nooooooo!<BR/><BR/>Patrick Farley has lost his web site? Oh, what a civilization. <BR/><BR/>Judgement thou art fled to brutish beasts, and men have lost their reason.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-54016490242335412112007-12-12T20:31:00.000-08:002007-12-12T20:31:00.000-08:00Fair point. Another possibility is that we needed ...Fair point. <BR/><BR/>Another possibility is that we needed to see the current paradigms of self-interest at work, so that we got a visceral feel for what not to let happen in future at a time when it could be rigorously documented.<BR/><BR/>Yet another possibility is that I'm off with the pixies and Pangloss was a deluded nutter.<BR/><BR/>Meanwhile, Spiders appear to have followed the dolphins, and emigrated to another universe... presumably to end the tale!<BR/><BR/>Yep! I think that settles it for Pangloss... ('Oi! Stefan! Where are you going?')Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-35703547209279801722007-12-12T19:11:00.000-08:002007-12-12T19:11:00.000-08:00My previous remark was for Tony.Zechariah? That i...My previous remark was for Tony.<BR/><BR/>Zechariah? That is exactly what the neocons do. They latch onto some dopey mantra and use it to discredit in their own eyes an opponent who would otherwise trounce them overwhelmingly, on points.<BR/><BR/>As am "inconvenient question", the 20 room mansion is a nice zinger and Gore deserves to both go "ouch" and have to explain. A little. As a DISCREDITING PROOF it is a great big zero. <BR/><BR/>In fact, it is utterly hypocritical for a movement that has abandoned Conservatism in favor of an utter spasm of shortsighted self-indulgence, to screech at a man who is a MIX of hard work, vision, future-values AND a little self-indulgence.<BR/><BR/>That sackcloth and ashes thing tops it all.<BR/><BR/>Fact, had he been president, Jon Stewart and Colbert would have skewered him for the house... but NOT for abandoning all reason, undermining science, abandoning all efforts to kick foreign oil, selling us down the river, and betraying the entire professional caste.<BR/><BR/>I am a pragmatist. Give me a guy who limits his hypocrisy down around the 10% level, instead of a movement that Swift Boats every opponent, and calls it reason.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-80638360514830851532007-12-12T18:34:00.000-08:002007-12-12T18:34:00.000-08:00Oh, nice try.But in the Goreverse, US science pros...Oh, nice try.<BR/><BR/>But in the Goreverse, US science prospered. The proof came out in the natural process of our institutions functioning, unimpeded.<BR/><BR/>For one brilliant look at that alternate world, see e-sheep.com/spiders/David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-161324247963745212007-12-12T18:32:00.000-08:002007-12-12T18:32:00.000-08:00Who spoke 'An Inconvenient Truth' in the Gore-vers...<I>Who spoke 'An Inconvenient Truth' in the Gore-verse?</I><BR/><BR/>Somebody who didn't live in a 10,000 square foot, 20 bedroom, 8 bath house?<BR/><BR/>Now he has made some energy efficient upgrades to his home to be sure. I don't care. His bloated pad still sucks several times more natural gas and electricity than a normal 2,000 square foot house with no upgrades.<BR/><BR/>That is precicely my problem with Al Gore. He advocates lots of government intervention because to him legislation is the solution to all our ills, whereas I believe some problems are not the governments place.<BR/><BR/>If Al Gore wants to be the prophet of the green religion fine, but he needs to live in sackcloth and ashes and lead by example first. Until then he is no different from reading about a 'moral values' repubilcan having weird sex in the airport bathroom.<BR/><BR/>As Dr. Brin once put it "<A HREF="http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2007/10/ostrich-papers-what-if-clinton-had-part_15.html" REL="nofollow">And this should not affect your credibility? Well tough. It does.</A>"sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-73825866348702279692007-12-12T17:20:00.000-08:002007-12-12T17:20:00.000-08:00Zorgon'a little 'Amerikaput' rant is spoilt by som...Zorgon'a little 'Amerikaput' rant is spoilt by some broken links (although it's not hard to decipher them!)<BR/><BR/>A couple of things I will (cherry) pick up on.<BR/><BR/>- obesity is fast becoming a problem in *all* developed nations. America is a bit of a leader here. (a case of 'over-development')<BR/><BR/>- housing affordability in Europe has always been an issue (indeed, it is common for families to rent all their lives.. no stigma attached) It may be that the American (and Australian) dream was something only Americans ever aspired to briefly.<BR/><BR/>That said, I do agree that the 'America is the greatest' spiel does wear a bit thin sometimes.<BR/><BR/>----<BR/>A little while back I took a lighthearted look at the 'panglossian' multiverse idea (we perceive ourselves as existing in this universe because we died off sooner down other possible paths) and it led me to wonder in shock and awe: 'What did President Gore do wrong!!?')<BR/><BR/>Looking at his Nobel acceptance speech, I see these words:<BR/><I>...that unwelcome verdict also brought a precious if painful gift: an opportunity to search for fresh new ways to serve my purpose.<BR/><BR/>Unexpectedly, that quest has brought me here.</I><BR/><BR/>Who spoke 'An Inconvenient Truth' in the Gore-verse?Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36295013529338993702007-12-12T16:44:00.000-08:002007-12-12T16:44:00.000-08:00The American turn away from rails has been ruinous...The American turn away from rails has been ruinous. A calamity that proves that the puppeteers behind big oil and mass media aren't as smart as they think they are. They oppose even no-brainer, blatantly obvious things that should be chosen non-politically, simply as acts of good governance.<BR/><BR/>Ditto their 20 year reflex to be dragged kicking and screaming into admitting the crisis of climate change. Nothing better proves that their position came to them out of pure luck (possibly combined with raw thievery) rather than the superior brains that they flatter themselves to possess,<BR/><BR/>Here's an excerpt from Al Gore's Nobel Acceptance Speech. The diverted path we took, with the stolen election of 2000, was not left vs right, but a pure spiral away from American world leadership and confident progress, down a road to dismally insipid kleptocracy.<BR/><BR/>Oh, for a draft Gore movement with real momentum.<BR/><BR/><I><BR/>"Sometimes, without warning, the future knocks on our door with a precious and painful vision of what might be. One hundred and nineteen years ago, a wealthy inventor read his own obituary, mistakenly published years before his death. Wrongly believing the inventor had just died, a newspaper printed a harsh judgment of his life's work, unfairly labeling him "The Merchant of Death" because of his invention - dynamite. Shaken by this condemnation, the inventor made a fateful choice to serve the cause of peace.<BR/><BR/>Seven years later, Alfred Nobel created this prize and the others that bear his name.<BR/><BR/>Seven years ago tomorrow, I read my own political obituary in a judgment that seemed to me harsh and mistaken - if not premature. But that unwelcome verdict also brought a precious if painful gift: an opportunity to search for fresh new ways to serve my purpose.<BR/><BR/>Unexpectedly, that quest has brought me here. Even though I fear my words cannot match this moment, I pray what I am feeling in my heart will be communicated clearly enough that those who hear me will say, "We must act."<BR/><BR/>The distinguished scientists with whom it is the greatest honor of my life to share this award have laid before us a choice between two different futures - a choice that to my ears echoes the words of an ancient prophet: "Life or death, blessings or curses. Therefore, choose life, that both thou and thy seed may live."<BR/></I><BR/><BR/>Text: http://thinkprogress.org/gore-nobel-speech<BR/><BR/>Video: http://AlGore.comDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-65500187250841306812007-12-12T15:32:00.000-08:002007-12-12T15:32:00.000-08:00Wow, Zorgon,That was kind of impressive. A screed ...Wow, Zorgon,<BR/><BR/>That was kind of impressive. A screed written in favor of U.S.-ians not ignoring the good social solutions evident elsewhere, combined with an indignant rant!<BR/><BR/>My favorite thing Americans ignore, which I'd rather they didn't, is the European solution of a tightly integrated and heavily subsidized rail network, for midrange and short distance transportation needs. Switzerland's rail system is very impressive, that way.Rob Perkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15618647194288598056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36589600661271767182007-12-12T14:33:00.000-08:002007-12-12T14:33:00.000-08:00I don't think so Brendan. Government is already s...I don't think so Brendan. Government is already spending a lot of money. They get more of income to do with what they will than I do after you factor in the cost of living. I believe this is true for most of the Country.<BR/><BR/>I tend to think that most people who aren't interested in politics are those that have sufficient distraction in other things. I think that most people who are interested fall into one of 3 groups.<BR/><BR/>1) Those interested in Power (Be they fascinated or interested in wielding it.)<BR/>2) Those are in need some type of help that they are unable or unwilling to resolve themselves.<BR/>3) People with an excess of time on their hands.<BR/><BR/>From an idealized American viewpoint, the best way to get more people involved is to give them more Power not push them into group two by overtaxing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-13737127209748434562007-12-12T13:39:00.000-08:002007-12-12T13:39:00.000-08:00While reading Zorgan's spiel on Socialism s it ope...While reading Zorgan's spiel on Socialism s it operates in Europe, a sudden thought occurred. Would an increase in taxation levels bring about greater participation in involvement in the political process? People may think: Government is spending a lot of MY money, I want to make sure the right people are in at the top to ensure it is spent well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-25569825897435378252007-12-12T07:38:00.000-08:002007-12-12T07:38:00.000-08:00Could Dr. Brin's pleasant surprise on the rise of ...Could Dr. Brin's pleasant surprise on the rise of India be related to the fact that English is to India what Latin was to medieval Europe? Which means they're being inclined towards the values of the Anglosphere if they're (the upper classes, at any rate) not actually joining it.Pathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12924528412320735751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-54223993308465763802007-12-12T01:15:00.000-08:002007-12-12T01:15:00.000-08:00(Zorgon again, logon appears dead.) 10,000 years a...(Zorgon again, logon appears dead.)<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-sci-evolution11dec11,1,2206745.story?coll=la-headlines-nation" REL="nofollow"> 10,000 years ago nobody had blue eyes. </A> Human evolution has been speeding up exponentially -- that is, the bigger the population gets, the faster evolution goes, which is the definition of an exponential function. Its growth rate is proportional to its size.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="www.treehugger.com/files/2007/12/printing_out_bu.php" REL="nofollow">Printing out buildings.</A> A 5-axis giant CNC machining facility is being used to lathe and rout out 40-metre-square sections of a building which will then be bolted together to build the entire structure. In Europe, naturally, since here in America we're too busy torturing people to bother with advancing our technology.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.blogmaverick.com/2007/12/11/warren-buffett-taxes-and-the-presidency/" REL="nofollow">Billionaire Mark Cuban makes some radical suggestions about transparency in government and taxes on small business. </A>Basically, he advocates increasing taxes on the rich in return for more government transparency.<BR/><BR/>Dr. Brin's discussion of Eastern vs. Western social systems seems like a reasonable if simplified sketch...except that he misses a third method of societal organization, Kevin Kelly-style emergent order (the best examples are Linux operating system development, the grameen banks in India, and Wikipedia). <BR/><BR/>Also Dr. Brin reaches a conclusion exactly the opposite of what appears to be actually happening. (As Rob points out.) All 3 systems of societal organization appear not to be competing but to be blending into one another and interpenetrating in the manner of mitochondria infiltrating cells and providing them with energy.<BR/><BR/>Big science used to be exclusively a Chinese-style GAR command system but even the biggest science is now getting significant injections of free-form entrepeneurial traditional Western-style organization, as Craig Venter and others have shown. These two models don't appear to be competing but to complement one another. Some big science (the LHC at CERN) still has to be done by top-down Chinese-style GAR methods of organization. Other science is entirely entrepenurial, while more and more science has both elements (NASA's "faster smaller cheaper" initiative on space probes).<BR/><BR/>Dr. Brin falls into the absurd trap so many Americans get caught in, decrying socialism even though socialist Europe whips our asses in just about every measure. Better quality of life, better broadband, better medical care, more personal freedom, no torture, rule of law preserved, no wild foreign military adventures bankrupting the state, etc. Europeans are even taller than Americans, showing their superior diet and health. Clearly socialism is proving itself significantly superior to the degenerate robber baron American system of pure greed & corruption (misnamed "globalization" -- it's just Ricardo's robber baron gunboat mercantilism 2.0 but with intellectual property substituted for manufactured goods and the U.S. army susbtituted for the British Imperial Army), as well as to the Chinese model of top-down GAR command-and-control society.<BR/><BR/>When it comes to economic systems, Americans react like creationists -- no amount of evidence ever suffices to prove that America's cannibalistic stand-on-your-drowning-neighbor's-shoulders-to-keep-your-head-above-water robber baron corrupt economic cronyism isn't the finest economic system ever created in the history of the human race. No matter how Himalayan, no mountain of evidence (say, broadband speeds throughout socialist Europe, or the keiretsu-governed universal corporate health care of Japan, or the chaebol-dominated tech innovation of South Korea, which far outpaces our pitiful American versions) is ever enough to show that the American economic system of filling the streets with starving homeless people and creating the highest infant mortality in the world isn't the only possible economic system for everyone everywhere.<BR/><BR/>It's really hilarious to watch the contortions Americans go through when you compare the hard evidence on American quality of life vs. Japanese or European quality of life. It's like asking a bigfoot enthusiast for proof. They go berserk. An ever-increasing mountain of evidence from diet, overall health, infant mortality, broadband speeds, digital media adoption, spousal violence rates, murder rates, rapes per capita, number of serial killers per capita (America has 80% of hte world's serial killers) to touchy-feely "how do you feel about your quality of life" surveys show that the savagely cannibalistic robber baron society-wide Ponzi scam ("Get an advanced degree and you'll win the social lottery!" Then watch youself get outsourced and become homeless) implemented in America doesn't produce the best results for society. It's like watching a ufologist page through the Project Blue Book report. Show Americans the evidence about the pervasive failure of their sadistic grotesquely inefficient economic system, and first they get red-faced, then they start to stammer and stutter, and soon they're hurling insults and snarling incoherent curses. <A HREF="www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/parenting/%2005/08/mothers.index/index.html" REL="nofollow">America has one of the highest infant mortality rates in the developed world?</A> Unimportant! <A HREF="www.amazon.com/%20Nickel-Dimed-Not-Getting-America/dp/0805063897" REL="nofollow"> Vast rings of working poor Americans now live in their cars around all the major American cities because a typical American job no longer pays enough for Americans to afford basic housing?</A> Insignificant! <A HREF="www.cbpp.org/8-29-06health.htm" REL="nofollow">The number of Americans without health insurance has now skyrocketed to 47 million and keeps rising, to the point where people with serious injuries must choose which finger they want reattached after an accident because they don't have money enough to reattach them all?</A> Trivial! <A HREF="http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/" REL="nofollow">Europe and Japan and Korea and China and the little tigers of Asia have all far surpassed America in broadband access and penetration, and the gap keeps widening as America falls farther and farther behind, at 16th globally and dropping fast?</A> Irrelevant! <A HREF="reclaimdemocracy.org/articles_2005/%20business_power_poll.php" REL="nofollow">90% of Americans polled think big business has too much power in American society?</A> Who cares, they're just the great unwashed, blast 'em with pepper spray and order the riot police to beat 'em with truncheons, there's another G8 summit meeting coming up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-87340111713316121672007-12-11T11:40:00.000-08:002007-12-11T11:40:00.000-08:00k.crady, you must have missed my reply to another ...k.crady, you must have missed my reply to another person who raised the same issue. I do not deny the possibility of either simgularities or nightmares! In fact, see: http://lifeboat.com/ex/singularities.and.nightmares (!!) <BR/><BR/> However, these governance issues are still vital. Should we deal with the pitfalls and opportunities using traditional, paternalistic tools or Enlightenment tools of open criticism? These ARE the two approaches on the table. They will affect the outcome of any challenge.<BR/><BR/>Your (depressing) scenario is one in which much fear reigns -- much of it deliberately stoked in order to keep peoples’ fealty tied to older (legacy) systems. We are seeing this tested today, as Red America expresses tsunamis of fear and dread and symbolic patriotism combined with religious fervor... while they are the ones NOT in the terror crosshairs. Urbanites who ARE in danger, ironically, seem relatively fearless.<BR/><BR/>In any event, I doubt your transhumanists and my amateurs can possibly succeed unless some of the Legacy States are friendly and guided by Enlightenment values and, yes, even devolution of power. Without friendliness from some major states, this ain’t gonna happen.<BR/><BR/><B>HERE IS THAT STORY ABOUT ACCELERATING HUMAN EVOLUTION</B><BR/><BR/>http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071211/ts_alt_afp/ussciencegenetics_071211140401<BR/><BR/>The world may feel more and more like a global village, but its residents are increasingly genetically diverse thanks to the rapidly accelerating pace of human evolution, a study said Monday. Geneticists say the huge explosion in our numbers in the past 40,000 years, since Homo sapiens migrated out of Africa to other continents, has resulted in a much faster pace of evolution compared to the previous six million years.<BR/><BR/>The pace of change has increased 100-fold in modern times compared to our distant past, and most notably since the Ice Age, 10,000 years ago, and has led to increasing diversification between the races. "We are more different genetically from people living 5,000 years ago than they were different from Neanderthals," said John Hawks, an anthropologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who collaborated on the study. The findings are based on analysis of data from an international genomics project. A team of scientists examined DNA from 270 individuals in four ethnically different populations<BR/><BR/>Contrary to conventional wisdom, which holds that human evolution has slowed to a crawl or even stopped in modern humans, the researchers' analysis suggested that the process of natural selection has sped up. "Rapid population growth has been coupled with vast changes in cultures and ecology, creating new opportunities for adaptation," the authors wrote in the paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "The past 10,000 years have seen rapid skeletal and dental evolution in human populations, as well as the appearance of many new genetic responses to diet and disease."<BR/><BR/>Human migrations into new European and Asian environments created selective pressures favoring less skin pigmentation (so more sunlight could be absorbed through the skin to make Vitamin D), adaptation to cold weather and dietary changes. One example of a genetic adaptation to human culture involves the gene that makes the milk-digesting enzyme lactase. The gene normally stops activity about the time a person becomes a teenager, but northern Europeans developed a variation of the gene that allowed them to drink milk their whole lives -- a relatively new adaptation that is directly tied to the introduction of domestic farming and use of milk as an agricultural product.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-77270980051009631202007-12-11T10:30:00.000-08:002007-12-11T10:30:00.000-08:00India is interesting. It's history as a refined an...India is interesting. It's history as a refined and civilized culture goes as far back as ancient Greece, and perhaps farther. And I think those millenia live in all Indian people, especially the caste system and Vedic-descended religion, such as Buddhism and Hinduism. <BR/><BR/>Think about all that history: Aryans invaded or migrated from Persia, all the way up to Darius. They broke Alexander's push. Mauryans and Guptas tried unification, but largely failed over the long term. The Mongols only succeeded at layering Islam overtop all of that. And that doesn't even begin to cover the turmoil the British and other europeans introduced in the modern age. <BR/><BR/>Unlike China, India isn't one country. It's more like ten. <BR/><BR/>There are at least five modes of writing; Arabic (Urdu), Hindi, Tamil, English, Gujarati. 22 or more official languages (with one lingua franca, of course). A number of dialects under that rubric that makes the 300+ dialects of Swiss German look absolutely monolinguistic. <BR/><BR/>The upshot is that that one nation has more diversity and culture in one of its states than Americans have in the entire United States. It's not a surprise that it's not easily modeled, because by all historical evidence there should be no union whatsoever. It's a miracle, what Ghandi did. It should have been completely impossible. <BR/><BR/>India, on its current vector, may end up being the greatest example of modernism in the 21st Century, in spite of its castes. Or, it may have a modernist component, and whole hundreds of millions of out-castes. I think it depends on whether they can keep the ideals Ghandi gave them alive long enough.Rob Perkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15618647194288598056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-71160633471543778042007-12-11T08:47:00.000-08:002007-12-11T08:47:00.000-08:00Fascinating article, Dr. Brin! However, it seems ...Fascinating article, Dr. Brin! However, it seems to rest on the premise that there will be no genuinely disruptive technological advancements. Things like molecular nanotechnology, smarter-than-human artificial intelligences, or virtual reality so immersive that people care more about what's happening in future equivalents of Second Life or World of Warcraft in 2032 than who gets elected President in the meatspace election. If there is one.<BR/><BR/>Changes of that nature could radically alter the meme-wars in unexpected ways. By 2050 we might be arguing over which reality we want to live in, rather than whether we want the Chinese Way or American Way of conducting business-as-usual.<BR/> <BR/>Also, I think "black swans" like Peak Oil, climate change, or the first gene-hacker with a smallpox mod who believes he will get 72 virgins in the afterlife for flying from airport to airport spreading his pathogen can, and probably will create unexpected major shifts in the direction of history. Back in 1998, everybody was expecting "the end of history," "the end of Big Government," "the Long Boom" and peace dividends. 19 guys with box-cutters pretty much put an end to all that. Though, perhaps nine people in black robes caused a bigger world-changing disaster beforehand by putting the words "President" and "Bush" together again.<BR/><BR/>I think we will be facing a lot of non-linear change between now and 2050. In that case, I think that neo-Confucian elites and American media-corporate politics-as-usual "democracy" will prove too slow and inflexible to cope effectively.<BR/><BR/>My guess is that the meme-war will be between "Enlightenment Amateurs"/Open Source/Transhumanists vs. neo-Feudalists organized along the old, old lines of religion, race, ethnicity and tribe.<BR/><BR/>I think this will also translate into "Fourth Generation" physical warfare. Legacy States will try desperatly to hold onto power with omnisurveillance and expensive weapon systems that can destroy any target but can't make the trains run on time or win the allegiance of the people to the government. <BR/><BR/>I think they've already lost the meme-war, except maybe in China. In the West, most people to my knowledge equate "politician" with "scum." I don't see any evidence that our culture can produce "revered statesmen/-women" who are admired like FDR or JFK. <BR/><BR/>In the Islamic world, people loathe their governments and honor non-state leaders like mullahs and tribal head-men. <BR/><BR/>I have no idea who will win the meme-war between the Enlightenment and the "Back to the Iron Age" neo-Feudalists. I hope it's the Enlightenment. :)Kevin Cradyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12787158621008691349noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-58310066413570723422007-12-11T00:02:00.000-08:002007-12-11T00:02:00.000-08:00DavidAlthough Singapore (population 3.5 million) c...David<BR/>Although Singapore (population 3.5 million) correlates quite close to China in freedom of the press See below.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Two much larger chinese communities would seem to suggest that freedom of the press is quite possible and as they are both part of greater china (unlike the soverign nation of singapore 2500 miles away) are probably more reprasentative of the real feelings of the population these are Hong Kong (population 6.7 million ) and Taiwan (population 22.8million)?<BR/><BR/>Reporters without Borders freedom of the press ranking has both of these as very free presses.<BR/><BR/>The latest ranking (2006) has Taiwan at No.43 and Hong kong at No.58 - (the US ranks as no 53.) but all the top 80 or so countries are very free.<BR/><BR/>the rankings are based on a scoring system (the lower the score the free're the press<BR/><BR/>Finland is no. 1 at 0.5, the UK gets 6.5 (no.27) Taiwan got 10.5, the US 13 and Hong Kong 14.<BR/><BR/>Singapore got 51.5 (and came in at 127).<BR/><BR/>China got 94 (163rd)<BR/><BR/>North Korea with 109 came last at 168th<BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/>http://www.rsf.org/article.php3?id_article=19388Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36047371410944008202007-12-10T23:52:00.000-08:002007-12-10T23:52:00.000-08:00Re: the "our hunter-gatherer genes should define o...Re: the "our hunter-gatherer genes should define our social order" position - have a look at this:<BR/><BR/>http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2007/12/is-human-evolut.html<BR/><BR/>Quote:<BR/>Prof Hawks says: "We are more different genetically from people living 5,000 years ago than they were different from Neanderthals." <BR/><BR/>With actual numbers in the links! :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-55899045059153707712007-12-10T22:21:00.000-08:002007-12-10T22:21:00.000-08:00David: I second the endorsement of the book Stuar...David: I second the endorsement of the book Stuart mentioned, and am surprised I haven't mentioned it to you before. It's VERY slow and terribly written, so speed-read or get a summary from someone who's time is less valuable but who can recognize the important bits, but it's a VERY important book with surprising and interesting data.Michael Vassarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14093368267892307038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-63283171499943656392007-12-10T19:04:00.000-08:002007-12-10T19:04:00.000-08:00Dr. Brin, have you read Paul Krugman's Conscience ...Dr. Brin, have you read Paul Krugman's <A HREF="http://www.amazon.com/Conscience-Liberal-Paul-Krugman/dp/0393060691" REL="nofollow">Conscience of a Liberal</A> yet? I just started reading it, and in the first few chapters he talks about the US post-war boom when the middle class was created, which a) can give us some idea how to renew things now and b) questions the standard "build, and the middle class will form on its own" theories in economics.<BR/><BR/>I've only just started it, so I'll give a fuller report later, once I finish it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-42441953487718217342007-12-10T18:07:00.000-08:002007-12-10T18:07:00.000-08:00David Brin opines "When these get entrenched, thei...David Brin opines "When these get entrenched, their own internal logic makes the oligarchs plan and rule in such a way as to KEEP things pyramidal and hierarchical. Can you honestly tell me that India is not this way?"<BR/><BR/>First of all, there was no such thing as "India" until 1947. The India that you're referring to took some time to gel as a country and a socialist model made sense at that time to keep the country together. Now that people feel more "Indian", the socialist shackles can be shrugged off and everyone can move in a more modernist direction since there's a large gap here. Since there was no monotheistic religion to enforce a top down order for hundreds of years, Indians have a natural inclination toward postmodern diversity and therefore, postmodern development had been in place for a while predating the modernist one under way now (which is very strange for the outsider). At present, you have development proceeding along traditional, modern and postmodern lines. Your basic dichotomy of authoritarianism versus libertarianism won't work here since you're trying to shoehorn it into something (India) that can be better classified along the lines I suggested: traditional, modern and postmodern. Looked at in this way, India and the U.S. are not that much different really which is why the U.S. is such a great role model for India.NoOnehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08685249095572192084noreply@blogger.com