tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post6798762222779594950..comments2024-03-28T23:39:08.616-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Environmental matters and a brighter future? And... There is no Lion King! And why that matters.David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger71125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-4095272225833215352022-02-23T12:14:46.707-08:002022-02-23T12:14:46.707-08:00LH: "Looks like they've got themselves a ...LH: "Looks like they've got themselves a new bestie now, though."<br /><br />Not even slightly. Russia is now a Chinese dependency/satrapy. They had plenty of those.<br /><br />onward<br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-19908631849207262362022-02-23T11:43:43.148-08:002022-02-23T11:43:43.148-08:00Dr Brin:
America was Chia’s best - and only ever ...Dr Brin:<br /><i><br />America was Chia’s best - and only ever - friend.<br /></i><br /><br />Looks like they've got themselves a new bestie now, though.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-57605779602143746352022-02-23T11:41:24.533-08:002022-02-23T11:41:24.533-08:00gerold:
According to your [locumranch's] defi...gerold:<br /><i><br />According to your [locumranch's] definition criminals and raving lunatics are the ultimate nonconformists. That's a lousy definition - but maybe I feel that way only because I detest conformity so much. I choose to eschew conformity for the same reason I obey some laws but not the ones I don't agree with.<br /></i><br /><br />That's the whole point there. You and loc both think of "non-conformist" as a good thing and "conformist" as a bad thing, so "Criminals are the ultimate non-conformists" presents you with a lot of cognitive dissonance. I'd put it a different way. Criminals are indeed the ultimate non-conformists, and that demonstrates that even non-conformity can be taken <b>too far</b>. It's simply not an unqualified good.<br /><br />Likewise, conformity doesn't always connote sheep-like, unthinking acquiescence. There are norms which people voluntarily conform because doing so makes life better for all involved. The negative connotation of "conformist" comes only from societies with rules so rigid that people are ostracized without good reason. <br /><br />Following the rules blindly without regard to their negative consequences can be a bad thing, but that doesn't mean following all rules is a bad thing, nor that breaking all rules is a good thing.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-47736638476471212842022-02-23T10:07:57.066-08:002022-02-23T10:07:57.066-08:00Perhaps LoCum can visualize yin yang as a way of c...Perhaps LoCum can visualize yin yang as a way of comprehending that opposing forces can be complementary.<br />Idealism is necessary, yet billions take it too far. Religionists have their ‘laws of God’; Marxists have faith in the ‘laws of history’—and so forth.<br /> A totalitarianism of the mind.Alan Brookshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17996922923136240709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-83042560635341976262022-02-23T08:48:12.355-08:002022-02-23T08:48:12.355-08:00Some think they understand history when they read ...Some think they understand history when they read (or simply possess) textbooks* written by the victors, analysts, or bystanders. But that's not psychohistory, which lives and evolves in a vast mindscape of myriad 'models of reality'. It's not zero-sum or cyclical. We should remember this lest we fall into the trap of epicycles.<br /><br />"We must wait for the official history of the Chinese Revolution to record in greater detail the invaluable work of our Japanese friends." - Sun Yat-sen<br /><br />* I've always loved Faraday's notion of 'toy-books'. It's a harbinger of "Why Johnny Can't Code".scidatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07152319593457629592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-17386184694949884992022-02-23T08:40:09.874-08:002022-02-23T08:40:09.874-08:00-AB: 1848 Europe cam THAT close to toppling the ab...-AB: 1848 Europe cam THAT close to toppling the absolutist aristocracies and installing parliamentary rule across the continent. We know which side L would be on.<br /><br />Robert look up the WWII Cairo Conference… before FDR and Churchill flew on to Tehran to meet Stalin, they met with Chiang Kai Shek and FDR insisted on calling him the 4th of the Big Four. One of a DOZEN times that America was Chia’s best - and only ever - friend.<br /><br />Burlingame did not always win. But he fought for China, representing our better American Angels.<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-33945406928749472852022-02-23T07:27:05.195-08:002022-02-23T07:27:05.195-08:00Robert you meant WWI.
I did.
Although the Chine...<i>Robert you meant WWI. </i><br /><br />I did.<br /><br />Although the Chinese contribution to WWII is also not insignificant, holding down so much of the Japanese military…<br /><br /><br /><i>But look up Anson Burlingame.</i><br /><br />Interesting. I do note that as usual the treaties he negotiated were broken or ignored…<br /><br />"A treaty forever your senators sign<br />They do dear lady, they do dear man<br />and the treaties are broken again and again"Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04909011338723657265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-4678750791859487332022-02-23T00:15:36.212-08:002022-02-23T00:15:36.212-08:00@locum: your definitions of cooperation and compet...@locum: your definitions of cooperation and competition are too limited, what might be called zero-sum reasoning. If you look at complexity theory you'll see that complex adaptive systems (CAS) such as human brains or cultures are composed of a large number of agents who all cooperate and compete to reach a decision. <br /><br />That's neither Orwellian doublespeak nor elementary jabberwokian. It's how the world works. (See Complexity by M Mitchell Waldrop for a full explanation.)<br /><br />A conformist is one who follows arbitrary social conventions not because they find them congenial but in order to avoid being singled out from the herd. Nonconformists choose to deviate from those conventions because they disagree with both the premise and the resulting effects. <br /><br />According to your definition criminals and raving lunatics are the ultimate nonconformists. That's a lousy definition - but maybe I feel that way only because I detest conformity so much. I choose to eschew conformity for the same reason I obey some laws but not the ones I don't agree with. geroldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05140093281920523064noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-70646105630997422642022-02-22T22:16:17.355-08:002022-02-22T22:16:17.355-08:00"Instead of burying dollars or gold in the ya...<i>"Instead of burying dollars or gold in the yard, imagine you buried gasoline you bought at the going rate in your town in 1976. Unearth it today and ask yourself if it's value is 5X higher. It might be close."</i><br /><br />Its value would be zero. Even with stabilizers, gasoline can only be stored for about three years or so before it degrades to worthlessness.<br /><br />That's the problem with these comparisons - what is a pearl beyond price to one generation may well be mere oyster snot a half-century later.<br /><br />Re: Vulcans - their virtual enslavement to what they think is logic is an adaptive behavior. Vulcans are more emotional than humans, and nearly destroyed all life on their planet in a series of petty wars that often devolved to nuclear exchanges before Surak had his breakthrough philosophy of devotion to the principles of logic. Over five thousand years, of course, the original philosophies have shifted a bit...Jon S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13585842845661267920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-19883801568631260322022-02-22T21:18:52.178-08:002022-02-22T21:18:52.178-08:00LoCum is the right man—for the 19th century. He wo...LoCum is the right man—for the 19th century. He would’ve enjoyed the romanticism of the year 1848.Alan Brookshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17996922923136240709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-83604241706952330222022-02-22T21:13:09.150-08:002022-02-22T21:13:09.150-08:00Larry
Inflation blame gets assigned to the powerf...Larry<br /><br />Inflation blame gets assigned to the powerful by the out-of-power like anything else. <br /><br />I also agree that this round is likely about scarcities since a lot of supply chains are quite disrupted. When we began to lock down, I expected 'bad news' in the numbers a year later because that's how we measure these things. Inflation is a year over year metric. Supply shocks happened, so price shocks were going to ripple out, so… inflation. Very predictable.<br /><br />One qualification is we also printed a lot of new money in the US. I'm not saying we should have refrained. I'm saying it has impacts. A good Keynesian would look to remove some of it later.<br /><br />——<br /><br />I get what you mean by entropy now. The economists make a distinction between durable and non-durable goods. Pizzas are non-durable. Modern cars tend to be durable.<br /><br />——<br /><br />"Bid" and "Ask" depend heavily on POV. They point out a fundamental feature of markets that in a science vocabulary would be called hysteresis. Real trades aren't reversible until bid and ask get really close and trade volume is high. Watch what happens to stock option prices after markets close and you'll see the impact volume has.<br /><br />Ultimately, though, sellers "ask" and buyers "bid". It doesn't matter in what the trade is denominated. Dollars, bacon, pizzas, you name it.<br /><br />Try different denominators to stretch your brain. For example, what is the price of gold (troy ounce) in terms of pounds of refined copper? Lots of people track them in terms of $$, but Au/Cu is an interesting metric some use to hint at future recessions.<br /><br />——<br /><br /><i>But unless someone has been refining more gasoline or baking more pizza in the interim, that money won't buy anything useful when you dig it up.</i><br /><br />Well… yah. Gold would be worthless if markets collapse. So would most everything be. <br /><br />They presume too much about a post-collapse world. I seem to remember a story someone wrote where the post-apocalypse people used $2 bills and a toothbrush was a highly valued item. 8)<br />Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-2254316157031730712022-02-22T20:56:20.263-08:002022-02-22T20:56:20.263-08:00DD those hurricane winds are a HUGE and easy to us...DD those hurricane winds are a HUGE and easy to use source of power! Any species adapted to the twilight zone would adapt to using them.<br /><br />Trek’s Vulcans were shown by writers to NEED logic more deperately than humans do. But see my twist in THE ANCIENT ONES! The Ancient Ones: http://davidbrin.com/ancientones.html<br /><br />Robert you meant WWI. But look up Anson Burlingame.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-40329286572632086382022-02-22T20:52:55.373-08:002022-02-22T20:52:55.373-08:00I don't think locumranch gets what 'higher...I don't think locumranch gets what 'higher order' means to someone with experience with mathematical physics. 'Perturbation expansion' as a concept might be a bit elusive.<br /><br /><br />Without the mathematics, it probably translates as 'meta' or 'elite'.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-4755982092690186752022-02-22T20:27:58.431-08:002022-02-22T20:27:58.431-08:00Maybe "Let the weak die" would be a bett...Maybe "Let the weak die" would be a better translation? Don Gisselbeckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05770961482198971383noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-57660360352863847072022-02-22T20:02:58.479-08:002022-02-22T20:02:58.479-08:00For 2sday lovers:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=...For 2sday lovers:<br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wM8JjT-97i8Paradoctorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04821968120388981470noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-32080139818931118262022-02-22T18:36:32.718-08:002022-02-22T18:36:32.718-08:00"Star Wars Day" on May The Fourth.
As o...<i>"Star Wars Day" on May The Fourth.</i><br /><br />As opposed to events happening on that date 103 years ago… :-)<br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_Fourth_Movement<br /><br />I wonder a bit how history might have developed differently if the Chinese contribution to WWII (roughly eight divisions of labourers) had been recognized at Versailles, rather than having German Chinese territories handed to the Japanese. Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04909011338723657265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-65610180091780927672022-02-22T17:56:06.592-08:002022-02-22T17:56:06.592-08:00Alfred - parasites and gut bacteria would plug a m...Alfred - parasites and gut bacteria would plug a major plot hole in HG Wells WOTW.<br /><br />(Spoiler alert)<br /><br />The Martians die from unknown Earth microorganisms.<br /><br />But a civilization 1,000s of years more advanced from our own would know all about germs in the Earth's environment. <br /><br />But not inside humans.<br /><br />They fed on captured humans like cattle, feasting on their blood.<br /><br />So it was something the Martians ate.DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-91010633643958526332022-02-22T17:48:50.098-08:002022-02-22T17:48:50.098-08:00Would the Vulcans of Star Trek be considered an ex...Would the Vulcans of Star Trek be considered an extremely high functioning autistic species?DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-54208643283581459192022-02-22T17:46:50.385-08:002022-02-22T17:46:50.385-08:00Wouldn't the biggest object to a civilization ...Wouldn't the biggest object to a civilization on a tidally locked planet be the hurricane force winds that continuously blow from cold side to hot side?DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-76295013138650009762022-02-22T17:41:37.052-08:002022-02-22T17:41:37.052-08:00We need an antidote to Tolkien and all other feuda...We need an antidote to Tolkien and all other feudalistic propaganda.<br /><br />Which is why I would love to see a movie adaption of "The Last Ring Bearer", a Tolkien parody by Kirill Eskov, where the Orcs are the good guys. From the Wikipedia article:<br /><br />>Eskov bases his novel on the premise that the Tolkien account is a "history written by the victors".[2][3] Eskov's version of the story describes Mordor as a peaceful constitutional monarchy on the verge of an industrial revolution, that poses a threat to the war-mongering and imperialistic faction represented by Gandalf (whose attitude has been described by Saruman as "crafting the Final Solution to the Mordorian problem") and the racist elves.[2] For example, Barad-dûr, Sauron's citadel, appears in chapter 2 as<br /><br />...that amazing city of alchemists and poets, mechanics and astronomers, philosophers and physicians, the heart of the only civilization in Middle-earth to bet on rational knowledge and bravely pitch its barely adolescent technology against ancient magic. The shining tower of the Barad-dûr citadel rose over the plains of Mordor almost as high as Orodruin like a monument to Man – free Man who had politely but firmly declined the guardianship of the Dwellers on High and started living by his own reason. It was a challenge to the bone-headed aggressive West, which was still picking lice in its log ‘castles’ to the monotonous chanting of scalds extolling the wonders of never-existing Númenor.<br /><br />P.S. After the return of the King, did King Aragorn send his new prime minister Faramir eastward to complete genocide (or at least ethnic cleansing) of the Orcs?DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-87109511041406051522022-02-22T16:43:42.625-08:002022-02-22T16:43:42.625-08:00Dr Brin:
...TWOsday. ...
Heh. Almost as good (...Dr Brin:<br /><i><br />...TWOsday. ...<br /></i><br /><br />Heh. Almost as good (bad) as my daughter's Bat Mitzvah being on "Pi Day". 3/14/15.<br /><br />Or "Star Wars Day" on May The Fourth.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-73578282318673131862022-02-22T15:43:34.401-08:002022-02-22T15:43:34.401-08:00@ Dr. Brin:
Tolkien and so many in fantasy pose go...@ Dr. Brin:<br /><i>Tolkien and so many in fantasy pose good-vs.-evil as the handsome deposed prince vs the ugly usurper. zero sum feudalist propaganda.</i><br /><br />I did not mention Tolkien (though I would somewhat agree on your verdict) nor C.S. Lewis nor the Disney flic or musical. Also, just a generation later, authors like Leiber, Moorcock and Vance created worlds that showed a different perspective, culminating in the Machiavellian Game of Thrones and Joe Abercrombies series.<br /><br />I thought of those authors through the ages from Aesop to Goethe who described contemporary persons and manners and used animals to escape persecution.Der Ogerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00977602334642769985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-21694450299392929612022-02-22T13:55:00.143-08:002022-02-22T13:55:00.143-08:00It is almost 2 o'clock (Pacific) on TWOsday. B...It is almost 2 o'clock (Pacific) on TWOsday. Be sure and note when it's 22:22.2/22/22 tonight at 22 mins after 10pm.<br /><br />https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/02/22/twosday-2-22-22-palindrome/6884226001/. <br /><br />Hope it's not unlucky!David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-67401294715649134092022-02-22T12:15:14.528-08:002022-02-22T12:15:14.528-08:00@Dr Brin,
I don't know if you noticed above, ...@Dr Brin,<br /><br />I don't know if you noticed above, but your mention of a talk you'll be giving on human augmentation in Champaign-Urbana (I presume on the University of Illinois campus) caught my eye. My daughter is a biology student there, and she might well be interested in the subject if your talk is open to students or to the general public. Do you know if it will be?Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-79534098730874405502022-02-22T10:58:50.942-08:002022-02-22T10:58:50.942-08:00Alfred Differ:
I don't know if it is entropy,...Alfred Differ:<br /><i><br />I don't know if it is entropy, but I'd agree if you used the word 'price' instead. Whether you bury a million dollars or an equivalent mass of gold today, there is no reason to believe it will fetch the same price 20 years from now.<br /></i><br /><br />I do mean the same thing you mean. But the terminology is a bit strange. See below.<br /><br /><i><br />The fans of gold believe it is MORE LIKELY their gold will fetch a high price (meaning trade for more stacks of pizza) than fiat dollars would. <br /></i><br /><br />Usually, the "price" of a commodity is the number of dollars (or whatever currency) you would have to trade for it. I get how you're using the term "price" to refer to the number of slices of pizza one would need to trade for a dollar. It's just an unusual way of putting it. Almost like using "bid" to mean "ask".<br /><br /><i><br />Over 20 years, they are probably right because inflation will destroy the value of those fiat dollars.<br /></i><br /><br />Probably right, but not always. Dollars buried in 1976 would buy a heck of a lot more computing power now than those same dollars would have in 1976. Just sayin'.<br /><br /><i><br />An inflated dollar from 1976 is almost $5 today. <br /></i><br /><br />I think what you mean is that it would take five dollars today to buy the rough equivalent of what one of those dollars would have bought in 1976. I know the point you're making, even though what you said was almost the opposite thing.<br /><br /><i><br />Instead of burying dollars or gold in the yard, imagine you buried gasoline you bought at the going rate in your town in 1976. Unearth it today and ask yourself if it's value is 5X higher. It might be close.<br /></i><br /><br />This is why I was using the term "entropy". I wasn't thinking so much of the dollar amount I could <b>sell</b> that gasoline for today vs 1976. I was thinking more of what that gasoline is worth to me as a commodity. I would expect to get a certain mileage for my car with my hoard of gasoline, but after 45 years in the ground, it might have degraded chemically so that it's not nearly as valuable (for useage) as it would have been had I just put it in my car back then. That's definitely the case for food. Even with refrigeration, there's only so long I can store food for future use before its value (as food) degrades.<br /><br />My argument is that money represents wealth in that I can trade it for a certain amount of pizza or gasoline or whatever today. The gold bugs want to claim that if I stick it in a lock box for 20 or 50 years, it should retain its buying power. But unless someone has been refining more gasoline or baking more pizza in the interim, that money won't buy anything useful when you dig it up. That's nobody's fault, not even the Romans'.<br /><br /><i><br />Inflation is a form of theft WHEN government money printers plan for it to happen* in order to erode the impact of their borrowing.<br /></i><br /><br />This might surprise you, but I'll agree with you on this point. <br /><br />I just disagree that that covers the entirety of what inflation is. The current round which is being blamed on Joe Biden seems to be more about scarcity of goods to buy than it is about printing too many dollars. Those scarce commodities would command higher prices in gold or bitcoin just as they do in dollars.<br />Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.com