tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post6373166557259012148..comments2024-03-29T00:39:31.629-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Calling Bluff on the Debt Ceiling "Carpocalypse"David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger243125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36376287781047032782011-07-30T05:41:14.158-07:002011-07-30T05:41:14.158-07:00David,
I love Warren Buffett and Bill Gates. I b...David, <br /><br />I love Warren Buffett and Bill Gates. I became a securities analyst and hedge fund investor because I wish to replicate what Buffett has done in some small way. Accumulate a small fortune using a Graham/Buffett investment approach and then use the fortune to help make the world a better place. <br /><br />Buffett is certainly being extremely generous. He is giving away something like $50 billion that he earned through sheer intelligence. This is very laudable when most billionaires just pass on their wealth. <br /><br />But your estimate of his son’s wealth is off by a bit. According to the most recent Berkshire Hathaway proxy statement Howard Buffett owns 1,406 Class A Shares worth $156 million and 300,011 Class B shares worth $22 million totaling just under $180 million at today’s stock prices. This is a very large fortune that is in effect dynastic wealth. Not Buffett/Gates wealth but fantastically wealthy.Sobieck00noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-80103896421059067042011-07-27T18:14:54.099-07:002011-07-27T18:14:54.099-07:00@Jim
I think you're right here.
Now, it'...@Jim<br /><br />I think you're right here.<br /><br />Now, it's really a small quibble given that the article is focused, not on the economic impact, but on the broader picture of politics painted by the GOP's actions here.<br /><br />Still, a shut down on 8/2 is NOT a small issue. In fact, I just listened to Ezra Klein, an economics columnist for Bloomberg and the Washington Post, talk about how such an event could potentially suck well over $100 billion out of the US economy for the month of August alone. Basically, he described it as "instant recession". In addition, the US is already looking at a downgrade in credit rating. S&P may do that even if we DON'T shut down on 8/2. Even averting a shut down, but doing it with the Boehner plan, is not enough to avoid a credit rating downgrade. In short, the state of our extremely fragile economy and presently delicate credit rating score are both at serious risk here.Coreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06487646409063141004noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-62109398937588543442011-07-27T10:28:14.795-07:002011-07-27T10:28:14.795-07:00Left/right axis: obsolete yes, irrelevant no.
On...Left/right axis: obsolete yes, irrelevant no. <br /><br />One party has unity & the other lacks it - which way their conflicts will be resolved in this situation is no mystery.<br /><br />If the author seriously thinks that an epic job-loss in the high-paying public sector, combined with a major run on banks, combined with ongoing reduction/elimination of vital services that will produce its own severe (& likely long-term structural) damage to the economy, will be just a "blip" ... or that this is will be a clone of Gingrich's stunt in the 1990s ... or that it will all somehow magically evaporate after a few days or a week, because the intransigent GOP that has been eager to shut down the USG will see the error of their ways, even while the public blames a weak POTUS for letting this crisis develop ... I think he is sadly mistaken.<br /><br />A default will have a devastating ripple effect around the world, in a very weak economy. What this would do to inflation & interest rates (that have been mercifully low up to now) would be ugly, to put it mildly - & no doubt America's creditors would make any further lending contingent upon much harsher terms, at a time when the US could least afford them. Another recession is a <i>best-case scenario</i> - an actual depression is a real possibility. <br /><br />Now picture FOX running "The Obama Depression" 24/7 as a meme, until the rest of the MSM picks it up ... suddenly the slate of GOP candidates doesn't look like a doomed clown-car going over a cliff any more: it looks like a contest over who gets a free cakewalk into the White House.jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06840719620959481121noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-44647635701399668312011-07-26T17:21:26.412-07:002011-07-26T17:21:26.412-07:00wow what a thread!
Onward to next posting.wow what a thread!<br /><br />Onward to next posting.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-74864262510555906222011-07-26T17:01:17.334-07:002011-07-26T17:01:17.334-07:00My apologies for the triple post, but has anyone n...My apologies for the triple post, but has anyone noticed that <a href="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015736351_apusaviationshutdown3rdldwritethru.html" rel="nofollow">the FAA is shut down</a>?<br /><br />Seriously. This Confederate attack on Union forces has claimed 4,000 jobs (and incidentally increased corporate coffers, as most airlines raised ticket prices when they no longer had to collect FAA ticket fees) and added to the crumbling of Union infrastructure. Critical services appear to be subsisting on supplies taken from other funds although I don't know what *that* is weakening.<br /><br />===<br /><br />About the 14th Amendment - I doubt Obama will actually invoke it, because it would give the GOP a plausible reason to impeach him. I don't say it's a legally correct reason, but it is much more plausible as the Lewinsky deposition set-up. A plausible impeachment would require trial by the Senate, which Obama would swiftly win but at heavy political cost. Just sayin')<br /><br />===<br /><br />OK, I'm done. On to Gettysburg!rewinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14008105385364113371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-21106593182389646872011-07-26T16:49:15.192-07:002011-07-26T16:49:15.192-07:00@Sociotard - don't you agree that it's Oba...@Sociotard - don't you agree that it's Obama's fault for not surrendering completely?<br /><br />If O.J. had thought to use the Boehner Defense, he'd be a free man today!rewinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14008105385364113371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-38913825639841464802011-07-26T16:47:12.419-07:002011-07-26T16:47:12.419-07:00When factual circumstances occur that render one c...When factual circumstances occur that render one construction of a law to be a physical impossibility, any other construction is preferable.<br /><br /><i>"...The 14th amendment requires Obama to pay the debts.</i><br /><br />... will, under a foreseeable set of facts, conflict with ...<br /><br /><i> It does not allow him to borrow, at will, without Congress's Okay."</i><br /><br />Congress passed a <b>statute</b> (A) authorizing the executive to sell bonds and (B) limiting that amount of bonds. When (B) results in a conflict with the plain language of the <b>Constitution</b>, which one wins?<br /><br /><b>...why, the one that gets 5 votes in the Supreme Court, of course!</b>rewinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14008105385364113371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-18271486130371597642011-07-26T16:20:42.043-07:002011-07-26T16:20:42.043-07:00From robertreich.org/post/7940507194
"Until l...From robertreich.org/post/7940507194<br />"Until last year Social Security took in more payroll taxes than it paid out in benefits. It lent the surpluses to the rest of the government.<br /><br />Now that Social Security has started to pay out more than it takes in, Social Security can simply collect what the rest of the government owes it. This will keep it fully solvent for the next 26 years."<br /><br />If this is true, and borrowing from the SS trust fund is "debt", and the 14th ammendment makes paying back debt a priority, then I think my parents SS checks should be ok.David Smelserhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08596446730839038592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-11860642919634250252011-07-26T15:30:15.915-07:002011-07-26T15:30:15.915-07:00It was interesting to Read Boehners remarks. He p...It was interesting to Read Boehners remarks. He presented the situation as if he was the one attempting to negotiate and Obama was obstructing.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/the-complete-text-of-president-obama-s-and-speaker-boehner-s-national-addresses-20110725" rel="nofollow">http://www.nationaljournal.com/the-complete-text-of-president-obama-s-and-speaker-boehner-s-national-addresses-20110725</a>sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-76685790348342541732011-07-26T15:21:07.186-07:002011-07-26T15:21:07.186-07:00Dave Smelsser has it right.
The 14th amendment re...Dave Smelsser has it right.<br /><br />The 14th amendment requires Obama to pay the debts. It does not allow him to borrow, at will, without Congress's Okay.<br /><br />It means this. He must use whatever money we have to pay the interest on our existing loans. And he must NOT issue checks to entitlement recipients beyond the cash that remains.<br /><br />SSI recipients who get HALF of the normal amount after August 2 will solve the problem within a week.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-51055598856728145972011-07-26T15:09:55.049-07:002011-07-26T15:09:55.049-07:00It's true Larryhart; you're absolutely rig...It's true Larryhart; you're absolutely right<br /><br />and yet, it strikes me as amazing that it's just an accepted part of politics that the GOP will use the budget debate for any excuse they can possible get hold of to attack American in any way they can.<br /><br />It's not even surprising anymore! That, or we really have reached a stage of "outrage fatigue".Coreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06487646409063141004noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-34557016039523788712011-07-26T12:12:22.868-07:002011-07-26T12:12:22.868-07:00Corey:
Aside from the fact that it's just min...Corey:<br /><i><br />Aside from the fact that it's just mind-numbingly stupid, and the kind of thing you'd only even consider out of a complete reflexive ideological hatred of environmental protection...<br /><br />it has all of zero to do with the US fiscal situation.<br /></i><br /><br />The Republicans aren't even pretending that the demands they insist upon in exchange for a debt ceiling deal have anything to DO with reducing the debt. Rather, they are using their ability to cause a default in order to wring ideological concessions out of the congressional Democrats and the president.<br /><br />Hostage-taking is a very appropriate metaphor.<br /><br /><i><br />I guess I can kiss any public sector job as a biologist goodbye so long as the Tea Party is around :(<br /></i><br /><br />Taking a page from Dr Brin's characters in "The Postman", I've gone to mentally appending "may they rot in Hell" to any mention of the Tea Party.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-74997498855299472392011-07-26T11:40:00.494-07:002011-07-26T11:40:00.494-07:00I guess I can kiss any public sector job as a biol...I guess I can kiss any public sector job as a biologist goodbye so long as the Tea Party is around :(Coreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06487646409063141004noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-17765204157793437892011-07-26T11:22:46.442-07:002011-07-26T11:22:46.442-07:00So the GOP has just decided to launch another fisc...So the GOP has just decided to launch another fiscally unrelated attack on America in our budget debate. I guess they got sick of going after abortion and public broadcasting?<br /><br /><br />Under HR2584, NO new species is allowed to be listed under the Endangered Species Act (as specified in the ESA, Section 4, parts a,b,c and e). That's among many other things, like forbidding mandates for fuel efficiency, forbidding the EPA from regulating air or water pollution, and deeply cutting the budgets of environmental agencies (which is not a fiscal issue; these agencies consume peanuts at worst).<br /><br /><br />Aside from the fact that it's just mind-numbingly stupid, and the kind of thing you'd only even consider out of a complete reflexive ideological hatred of environmental protection...<br /><br />it has all of zero to do with the US fiscal situation.Coreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06487646409063141004noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-86182357007018984952011-07-26T10:25:42.152-07:002011-07-26T10:25:42.152-07:00Our host should be interested in this New Scientis...Our host should be interested in this New Scientist article about Anti-addiction drugs. Still no word of anyone studying indignation addiction.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20730-antiaddiction-drugs-face-more-than-medical-issues.html" rel="nofollow">Anti-addiction drugs face more than medical issues </a>sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-67874453345850682462011-07-26T08:09:21.927-07:002011-07-26T08:09:21.927-07:00Oh look, more dire warning science fiction
http://...Oh look, more dire warning science fiction<br /><a rel="nofollow">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFlsGjIHzb8</a><br /><br />About some augmented reality program called H+. I'm sure the magaizine is annoyed at having its name used so.sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-4663264553602438412011-07-26T08:05:28.803-07:002011-07-26T08:05:28.803-07:00@David - the question is not whether the 14th Amen...@David - the question is not whether the 14th Amendment *requires* the executive to do anything. The question is whether ... (Am14 Section 4)<br /><i>"The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law ... shall not be questioned..."</i><br />...means that once Congress has authorized thus-and-so (wars, interest payments, the air traffic controllers that let John Boehner fly home on weekends ...) whether the "debt" accrues with Congress' commitment and direction to the Executive to provide the thus-and-so, or with the Executive's sale of bonds etcetera to cover the difference between tax collections and outlays.<br /><br />Fair argument may be made either way, English being an imprecise language and the drafters of the 14th Amendment most likely not thinking any Congress would be so irresponsible. But if we had the drafters before us today, they would remind us that they wrote the 14th Amendment as part of finishing off the results of the traitorous Confederacy, and they would take an equally strong line against today's Confederates.<br /><br />Taking the Teahardists' argument seriously for a second - let us assume Congress has ordered too much thus-and-so; perhaps we really can't afford all that stuff. In that case, Congress' Constitutional duty is to change the law - not to refuse to honor the debts that are the natural and expected results of its actions.<br />===<br />That said, I find it highly amusing that should our great nation find itself short on cash to cover expenses, and Congress refuse to find the revenue, who decides in what order the bills are paid?<br />The Executive.<br />I would suggest the Executive start with a Friday evening shutdown of the airport that John Boehner usings to get home. A cut in air traffic controller hours proportionate to the budget cuts Boehner chooses would be fair; after all, John can always take the bus same as his constituents.rewinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14008105385364113371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-15649535839572559152011-07-26T07:36:19.032-07:002011-07-26T07:36:19.032-07:00While the 14th amendment guarantees that the gover...While the 14th amendment guarantees that the government pay its existing debts, I'm not sure it requires the government to take on *new* debt in order to meet the desired of what congress wants to spend.David Smelserhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08596446730839038592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-39047397645150621502011-07-26T06:45:33.138-07:002011-07-26T06:45:33.138-07:00Paul Krugman:
At this point, we just have to acce...Paul Krugman:<br /><i><br />At this point, we just have to accept it as a fact of life: Obama doesn’t, and maybe can’t, do outrage — no matter how much the situation calls for it. The purpose of last night’s speech, if there was one, was to rally the nation against crazy Republicans. But there were no memorable lines, no forceful statements of the very stark reality. “Now, now, that’s not reasonable” isn’t going to move multitudes.<br /><br />It turns out, I’m sorry to say, that he wasn’t the one we were waiting for.<br /><br />Meanwhile, Boehner’s reply was as vile and dishonest as you might have expected.<br /><br />I really don’t see how this ends without either default or the belated discovery by Treasury that the constitutional option is viable after all.<br /></i><br /><br />That "constitutional option" is the idea that the 14th amendment guarantees that the US pay its debts, and that this trumps the debt ceiling. Krugman doesn't say this next part, but I'm guessing the corporatist Supreme Court would UPHOLD such a move rather than force a default.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-47228506042255779722011-07-26T06:34:49.219-07:002011-07-26T06:34:49.219-07:00Tacitus2:
It was mentioned quite a few invective ...Tacitus2:<br /><i><br />It was mentioned quite a few invective cycles back that we needed to be working at the state level, as it seems the model of the Fed gov doing all is failing. And that is happening. Fitfully, imperfectly (both WI and MN have been ugly), but the system can work.<br /></i><br /><br />The one thing the states can't do is print money. And while in normal times, I'd agree with you that that's a good thing, we are not in normal times. We need to increase DEMAND to get out of a recession, and states are tripping over each other to SLASH demand even as we speak.<br /><br /><i><br />So, the House of Rep makes a proposal, the Senate concurs and the Pres signs or vetoes. Onward.<br /></i><br /><br />The House's corporate sponsors, Wall Street, the "US Chamber", etc had better get those House members to realize that their source of campaign funding is about to take a hit. Otherwise, I see zero prospect of this happening.<br /><br /><i><br />Hoping I do not see my retirement fund drop 20% next week.<br /></i><br /><br />Mine dropped 20% after 9/11, and I was one of the lucky ones who invested conservatively. Point being, it came back. I'm not afraid of a short-term stock dip. As in Minnesota, a shut-down will only last a short time before everyone realizes it DOES affect them. <br /><br />But a default will probably raise interest rates for a long time to come, which means we'll be even MORE in the red. The problem that congressional intransigence is supposed to address--the deficit--will be made WORSE, not better.<br /><br />I can deal with people having a different priorities than I do. If more people think the debt is a bigger problem than the recession, well, maybe I'm wrong, and that's how democracy works. But I go CRAZY when people insist that a problem (the debt) is so drastic that we MUST take an action that makes that very problem WORSE.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-21144377160488828892011-07-26T06:20:25.607-07:002011-07-26T06:20:25.607-07:00Robert:
While in terms of percentage increase Oba...Robert:<br /><i><br />While in terms of percentage increase Obama and Clinton raised the National Debt far less than Reagan and crew... in terms of dollar amounts, not adjusted for inflation, how much did they do?<br /><br />In that regard, Obama may very well have spent nearly as much as the Shrub. And Clinton likely spent more than Reagan.<br /></i><br /><br />I don't know--didn't the Clinton years end with a budget SURPLUS? I know that doesn't mean there was no debt, but the debt was getting paid down so quickly that it scared Alan Greenspan into arguing for tax breaks (even though it was obvious even in 2000 that the stock bubble those projections were based on was already coming to an end).<br /><br />Additionally, the current administration has to deal with the Great Recession, and spending is actually a GOOD thing. The austerity that the right-wing is insisting upon will only guarantee that the US and Europe are stuck in a Japan-like recession for decades to come. It's legitimate to finally discover that the debt is a problem (though a bit late, considering that no one cared when it was Republican debt), but it is disingenous to the extreme to pretend that the debt is the reason for recession and unemployment when in fact austerity will prolong both indefinitely.<br /><br />Finally, much of what President Obama has to "spend" is service on the already-existing debt. So yeah, it's back on voodoo Reaganomics.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-23802648176833557212011-07-26T06:11:20.536-07:002011-07-26T06:11:20.536-07:00Tacitus2:
And as you also know I favored letting ...Tacitus2:<br /><i><br />And as you also know I favored letting the Bush tax cuts expire. Still do in fact, but it would be very nice to see some serious budget cutting measures first. <br /></i><br /><br />I also favored (and favor) letting them expire. ALL of them, even on my own tax bracket. In this case, I truly do believe in shared sacrifice.<br /><br />The temporary tax cuts (had an expiry date from the very start) were implemented without any thought to their impact on the budget. Why should the act of letting them expire require any further budget consideration than "If we're serious about reducing the deficit, we can't afford these tax cuts right now"?<br /><br />Because President Obama insists on keeping the tax cuts alive for all BUT the rich, he needs to horse-trade with congressional Republicans, whereas if he had just allowed the damn things to expire in 2010, we'd be on sounder fiscal footing by now.<br /><br />Tacitus to Dr Brin:<br /><i><br />To be fair to your past positions you have always held Afghanistan out as a necessary war. Or are you lumping in Libya as one of the two unnecessary ones?<br /></i><br /><br />I haven't read to the bottom yet, so I don't know if Dr Brin answered you, but my thought is that he didn't mean the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan was bad because it was unnecessary, but because it was "off the books" of the budget.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-49274171336545567732011-07-26T01:20:32.897-07:002011-07-26T01:20:32.897-07:00Ilithi Dragon,
"Just look at Australia with t...Ilithi Dragon,<br /><i>"Just look at Australia with their Green and Liberal parties. Their "Left" is almost as insane as our "Right" here in the U.S."</i><br /><br />Tony pointed out that "Liberal" is the Conservative/Tory Party. Think economic liberal, or these days neo-Liberal. (They aren't, though. Spending increased substantially during the last Liberal government.)<br /><br />OTOH, Labor is nominally Centre-Left, but with a strong Right faction. (The current PM was a member of the Left faction, but was boosted to leadership by the Right.) And just as incompetent against their insane opposition (and Murdoch media) as your Democrats. The Greens are... well, Greens.<br /><br />As for the current ultra-conservative Liberal leader, Tony Abbott, he's as bonkers as the best of your lot.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-22/crabb-freed-from-facts-abbott-goes-ballooning/2806640" rel="nofollow">http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-22/crabb-freed-from-facts-abbott-goes-ballooning/2806640</a><br /><br />Quote:<i>"Once you've severed the guy ropes of obeisance to empirical evidence, many happy hours of ballooning lie ahead. [...] But Mr Abbott's one-man battle against demonstrable logic has entered a new and compelling phase."</i>Paulnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-9169695133529600092011-07-25T22:13:10.166-07:002011-07-25T22:13:10.166-07:00Tacitus I never meant to tar you as a ruler! ;-)Tacitus I never meant to tar you as a ruler! ;-)David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-28859796192629434562011-07-25T22:01:05.272-07:002011-07-25T22:01:05.272-07:00@pangolin:
'I know a conservative ...'
Th...@pangolin:<br /><i>'I know a conservative ...'</i><br /><br />There you go again, using anecdotes to prove your liberal scientism nonsense!Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com