tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post5740853594023561473..comments2024-03-18T21:36:06.832-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Amazing - and sometimes deadly - animalsDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger98125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-53683135165082891982016-10-24T20:18:20.918-07:002016-10-24T20:18:20.918-07:00I would much rather face expulsion than incarcerat...I would much rather face expulsion than incarceration. It allows for the chance of more freedom on my part. BUT! Being young(ish) and single I don't have to consider being unable to have close contact with family. I'm also assuming that the local society screwed something up and I'd be welcome elsewhere in the world. Most prison stories involve some type of suffering or death camp fantasy which I don't care for one bit.<br /><br />What would you want to happen to you? Very limited freedom with some access to family or remote access with more opportunity elsewhere?<br /><br />Could we set up a system by which we send people to non-hellholes where their crime is acceptable?Jacobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03773076186367856200noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-77858734557360871892016-10-24T18:15:02.340-07:002016-10-24T18:15:02.340-07:00Downticket races. Bernie crashes in courtesy of Pa...<br /><br />Downticket races. Bernie crashes in courtesy of Paul Ryan's ill-advised meat to his base. <br /><br />http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/21/13358274/paul-ryan-bernie-sanders?utm_campaign=vox&utm_content=entry&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook<br /><br />I note that the HELP committee chairmanship would be a hell of a perch for Bernie. But, yep, budget would be one big statement. <br /><br />Also, I may be ready to admit HRC may win. I estimate the "fascist"polling gap (the effect of not wanting to admit you voted for the wannabe strongman) at 5%. Nate Silver has HRC up by 6% nationally. Now, I'm just worried about turnout. Early voting in democratic strongholds in North Carolina down by over 80% from 2012. Still think this thing is in major doubt. <br /><br /><br />matthewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17757867868731829206noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-90822982451852669322016-10-24T18:14:31.608-07:002016-10-24T18:14:31.608-07:00Downticket races. Bernie crashes in courtesy of Pa...<br /><br />Downticket races. Bernie crashes in courtesy of Paul Ryan's ill-advised meat to his base. <br /><br />http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/21/13358274/paul-ryan-bernie-sanders?utm_campaign=vox&utm_content=entry&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook<br /><br />I note that the HELP committee chairmanship would be a hell of a perch for Bernie. But, yep, budget would be one big statement. <br /><br />Also, I may be ready to admit HRC may win. I estimate the "fascist"polling gap (the effect of not wanting to admit you voted for the wannabe strongman) at 5%. Nate Silver has HRC up by 6% nationally. Now, I'm just worried about turnout. Early voting in democratic strongholds in North Carolina down by over 80% from 2012. Still think this thing is in major doubt. <br /><br /><br />matthewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17757867868731829206noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-4549706596305460412016-10-24T16:58:42.861-07:002016-10-24T16:58:42.861-07:00Hi donzelion
I said "murder" - I should ...Hi donzelion<br />I said "murder" - I should have said "death by violence" - the ambulance/improved medical bit does make a difference but mostly to unintentional death - when somebody intends to kill somebody they tend to make sure<br /><br />I don't think that changes the overall premise that violence has gone down substantially<br /> duncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-29066846334269171422016-10-24T16:58:28.615-07:002016-10-24T16:58:28.615-07:00onward
onwardonward<br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-68412414303732162662016-10-24T16:43:44.463-07:002016-10-24T16:43:44.463-07:00Tony: I read the MJ story; I'm fascinated, but...Tony: I read the MJ story; I'm fascinated, but unconvinced. At best, it strikes me as a theory that merits further testing. The sorts of tests I'd like to see might include lead poisoning tests on juvenile detainees, and tests to determine distinct patterns in crime rates in suburban/urban environments based on lead levels (esp. in soil).<br /><br />More I think about it, the more that sounds like a grant application to get the sort of data that would convert a plausible theory into a scientifically rigorous one. I'll leave that to the criminologists/environmentalists. It's a worthy undertaking.donzelionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05991849781932619746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-27943314268248450502016-10-24T16:08:30.478-07:002016-10-24T16:08:30.478-07:00@donzelion. The thing about lead that is compellin...@donzelion. The thing about lead that is compelling isn't just that the fall in crime rates began about twenty years after unleaded petrol was introduced, but that the introduction of unleaded petrol was staggered across regions, and the pattern repeats across states, cities, even neighbourhoods (see the MJ link I provided)<br /><br />The details I'll leave to the Masters thesis.Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1588680396264096432016-10-24T16:04:48.329-07:002016-10-24T16:04:48.329-07:00I would much rather face expulsion than incarcerat...I would much rather face expulsion than incarceration. It allows for the chance of more freedom on my part. BUT! Being young(ish) and single I don't have to consider being unable to have close contact with family. I'm also assuming that the local society screwed something up and I'd be welcome elsewhere in the world. Most prison stories involve some type of suffering or death camp fantasy which I don't care for one bit.<br /><br />What would you want to happen to you? Very limited freedom with some access to family or remote access with more opportunity elsewhere?<br /><br />Could we set up a system by which we send people to non-hellholes where their crime is acceptable?Jacobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03773076186367856200noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-57703744908254196052016-10-24T15:59:42.446-07:002016-10-24T15:59:42.446-07:00I've seen some people express concerns that th...I've seen some people express concerns that the current US penal system is already promoting a new slave economy. Basically, mandatory sentencing, plus the high proportion of blacks incarcerated. Oh yes, and labour gangs. There is a strike currently going on about wages, or the lack of them. Ethan Zuckerman has been trying to cover it on Global Voices, but is finding it hard to get information out.Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-25693296884183233762016-10-24T15:50:21.079-07:002016-10-24T15:50:21.079-07:00Duncan: "The "Mosher" problem is w...Duncan: <i>"The "Mosher" problem is why Pinker concentrates on murder - it is a set "crime" and will tend not to change"</i><br /><br />Actually, at least in America, murder rates aren't really a 'set crime' at all - the can change dramatically in response to certain categorical transitions For example, <br />(1) Definitional shifts. "Stand-your-ground" laws have been enacted in 33 states in America, authorizing the use of lethal force in response to a lethal threat (rather than requiring a party retreat to safety when possible). Simply adopting such a law may 'reduce' the 'murder' rate significantly.<br />(2) External factors, e.g., emergency medicine. Murder rates 'fall' when faster ambulances respond to trauma more effectively, including injuries resulting from violence. <br /><br />Lead paint, legalized abortion, demographics, socioeconomic conditions, and crime reporting incentives may play some role. But in terms of accepting the "lead poison -> criminality" claim, I'll wait for the criminologists to take that on. I note that the Centers for Disease Control started tracking lead poisoning incidence nationally in 1997 - and found an immense fall since then for 3-year olds in America (from about 8% in 1997 down to less than 1/2% in 2015). If lead really is the key, then we should expect to see crime rates continuing to fall just as dramatically. Sounds to me like a masters thesis, at the very least, ought to explore and test the link from available data.donzelionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05991849781932619746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-23232365014980103842016-10-24T15:49:32.557-07:002016-10-24T15:49:32.557-07:00...I also believe a certain fen has been sighted i......I also believe a certain fen has been sighted in places the getting to of which would be quite a saga Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1479470932847326692016-10-24T15:34:26.784-07:002016-10-24T15:34:26.784-07:00AFR heh!
locum actually has a point(!!!) this tim...AFR heh!<br /><br />locum actually has a point(!!!) this time. In that penal colonies that are relatively self-supporting and low cost to the state might then tempt the state... even voters... to increase conviction/punishment rates and terms because they feel more free of guilt and cost.<br /><br />Oh, but that concern is not his point after all. Because he accuses that of being my AIM! With is of course another damned lie.<br /><br />No, it is a potential failure mode which should be dealt with the way sane citizens do... with lively-open criticism and negotiation.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-91927724982448647572016-10-24T15:03:45.913-07:002016-10-24T15:03:45.913-07:00In fact, any of you who get INSISTENCE OF VISION c...<i>In fact, any of you who get INSISTENCE OF VISION can read a real cool story by me about how that revival of lost traits might turn really, really, really creepy.</i><br /><br />Ah, man, Dr. Brin, did you have to bring up <i>that</i> story? I'd just about forgotten it. You know, I haven't been able to look at a cute, furry little caterpillar in the same way since. Now those Butterfly Kits for kids look like miniature Death Chambers. <br /><br />You've ruined the miracle of metamorphosis for me! :(A.F. Reynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-53647019339038047762016-10-24T13:52:48.560-07:002016-10-24T13:52:48.560-07:00Darrell E:
Decades ago roaming through the scienc...Darrell E:<br /><i><br />Decades ago roaming through the science fiction section of a book store I came across Startide Rising, never heard of the author, but bought it based on the cover art alone. <br /></i><br /><br />An episode of the kids' tv cartoon "Phineas and Ferb" once made fun of the expression "Don't judge a book by its cover." The daughter, Candace, insisted that that's what covers are for--to judge them. She then asked her mother why she picked up a particular set of books, to which Mom replied, "They...looked...interesting." Candace rejoinded, "See?"<br /><br /><i><br />Thought I'd be disappointed but turned out to be one of the top 3 or so science fiction novels I'd read till then. The Uplift novels are still favorites.<br /></i><br /><br />Way back in the 80s, I read and loved "The Postman", but had never heard of the author, and it somehow never occurred to me to seek out other books of his. That happened when I met my wife. I loaned her "The Postman", and she immediately came back at me with the entire Uplift trilogy (the second trilogy hadn't been published yet). We complement each other that way.<br /><i><br /> I wouldn't mind at all if you found more stories to tell in that universe.<br /></i><br /><br />Without spoiling too much, I do believe a character whose initials are T.O. is still out there having heretofore-untold adventures.<br />LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1976671626272454002016-10-24T13:45:36.814-07:002016-10-24T13:45:36.814-07:00Jacob:
Nate has the Cubs at about a 2 to 1 favori...Jacob:<br /><i><br />Nate has the Cubs at about a 2 to 1 favorite to win. I like that even if we lose, another team that has had a long dry spell will get a win<br /></i><br /><br />You're getting way ahead of me.<br /><br />When I asked what you think about the Cubs in the World Series, I literally meant something along the lines of "Wow! The Cubs are in the World Series!" I haven't even thought ahead to what happens <b>in</b> the World Series.<br /><br />But I agree with your final sentiment there. Of course, I want the Cubs to win and break their 108 game streak. But then again, we've <b>already</b> broken a long streak of not <b>going</b> to the Series. That's an accomplishment all by itself. If we don't go all the way, I'll take as a consolation prize that there's still something else to shoot for in a different year.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-34404182440762740402016-10-24T13:42:15.103-07:002016-10-24T13:42:15.103-07:00Darrel E:
It seems to me that ahorseofcourse'...Darrel E:<br /><i><br />It seems to me that ahorseofcourse's and locum's issues with Pinker have more to do with ideology than anything else. Pinker is not ideologically driven to find support for positions that he holds for reasons other than rational assessment of the evidence. Pinker, by contrast, is making an intellectually honest attempt to figure out the way things actually are. Whether or not he is correct, angry claims that Pinker is an ideologically driven genetic determinist reveals much more about the claimant than it does about Pinker.<br /></i><br /><br />Paul Krugman often quips that "reality has a liberal bias."<br /><br />The reaction of liberals who accept that premise is to praise liberalism for conforming with reality.<br /><br />The reaction of conservatives accept that premise is to malign reality for not conforming with conservatism.<br /><br />LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-84399951066151170402016-10-24T12:07:25.994-07:002016-10-24T12:07:25.994-07:00Nate has the Cubs at about a 2 to 1 favorite to wi...Nate has the Cubs at about a 2 to 1 favorite to win. I like that even if we lose, another team that has had a long dry spell will get a win. <br /><br />I generally like the idea of Taxes going to associated services. You need certain amount of flexibility though.<br /><br />The Comptroller thing is reportedly intended to save money. It is a racially charged issue it seems as the current holder is African American. They consider it an assault on their power in the area. <br /><br />That the sick leave thing is weird as it is already slated to start next year. Was this a last ditch effort to stop it?Jacobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10432722840081535430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-85596147722374576922016-10-24T11:41:46.961-07:002016-10-24T11:41:46.961-07:00Very interesting regarding dolphin communications....Very interesting regarding dolphin communications. My fascination with dolphins is what led to me discovering you (David Brin) as an author. Decades ago roaming through the science fiction section of a book store I came across <i>Startide Rising</i>, never heard of the author, but bought it based on the cover art alone. Thought I'd be disappointed but turned out to be one of the top 3 or so science fiction novels I'd read till then. The Uplift novels are still favorites. I wouldn't mind at all if you found more stories to tell in that universe.Darrell Ehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14054311762477388637noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-17565294367114712322016-10-24T11:11:11.683-07:002016-10-24T11:11:11.683-07:00Ahorseofcourse points out that both Pinker (and mo...<i>Ahorseofcourse points out that both Pinker (and most progressives) purport to know the GOAL of evolution. They assume an Angelic Future for Humanity where we form strict hierarchies, banish dissent, lounge around on clouds, strum harps & LOVE each other as we dance around the throne of Absolute Knowledge while chanting hallelujah.</i><br /><br />Couldn't be more wrong. Pinker does not subscribe to any such nonsense.<br /><br />Same with the claims that Pinker supports genetic determinism. That's actually pretty funny. Left over animosity due to his book <i>The Blank Slate</i>? Actually reading and or listening to Pinker makes it rather difficult not to have picked up that he understands that the causes of human behavior are genetic <i>and</i> environmental.<br /><br />It seems to me that ahorseofcourse's and locum's issues with Pinker have more to do with ideology than anything else. Pinker is not ideologically driven to find support for positions that he holds for reasons other than rational assessment of the evidence. Pinker, by contrast, is making an intellectually honest attempt to figure out the way things actually are. Whether or not he is correct, angry claims that Pinker is an ideologically driven genetic determinist reveals much more about the claimant than it does about Pinker.<br /><br />It is the same disconnect with reality as demonstrated in the vehement protests and accusations of immorality from many of the critics of the mainstream view, among actual evolutionary biologists, that genes are the unit of selection. Even though after decades of trying different ideas virtually all successful models are genecentric models and in every case of the few that aren't the same phenomena have also been accurately modeled with genecentric models. Note that the critics don't typically say that there may be <i>some</i> categories of selection that are not genecentric, but that none are and the whole idea and the myriad successful models based on it are wrong. Rather similar to the all or nothing genetic determinist accusations of Pinker because he admits that genes play <i>a</i> role in human behavior. In both cases too many of those criticisms reduce to ideological complaints, i.e. the critic is <i>morally</i> offended by their own interpretation of the ramifications of the concepts they are criticizing.Darrell Ehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14054311762477388637noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-29652641564919463262016-10-24T10:52:48.421-07:002016-10-24T10:52:48.421-07:00As I recall, many who reject the left's tabula...As I recall, many who reject the left's tabula rasa ideas in favor of biological evolutionary psychology get tarred as "biological determinists" or social darwinists, and of course that is neither true nor fair. And I would also point out that there are a whole lot of people who are decidedly NOT left wing, who depend on the meme of things going to hell in a handbasket. It may, in fact, be a cross-partisan phenomenon or even - gasp - human nature.<br /><br />On another note, I have noticed a thing. Some visitors here - not on this page, or at least so far - have a whole string of blogs listed on their profiles, yet not a thing is posted on any of them. This is barely often enough to be noticeable, and often enough to NOT be coincidence. Amy ideas?Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-62078638010574241482016-10-24T10:46:54.590-07:002016-10-24T10:46:54.590-07:00Jacob:
Did you have any thoughts on ballot initia...Jacob:<br /><i><br />Did you have any thoughts on ballot initiatives? I'm in Chicago as well.<br /></i><br /><br />You're in Chicago too? Never mind the ballot--what do you think of the Cubs in the World Series???<br /><br />:)<br /><br />I actually thought long and hard about the "Safe Roads Amendment", but ultimately voted against it. I like the idea of keeping road funds from being raided, but no more so than keeping any other purposed funds from being raided. And a constitutional amendment seemed a bit much for that sort of thing.<br /><br />I voted Yes for combining the Comptroller's office with something else (I forget what). I doubt that's a bit emotional issue one way or another.<br /><br />I also voted Yes for guaranteeing sick leave. In fact, I don't really think that's the place of government, and I could see voting the other way, but at this point, I distrust Governor Rauner enough to be against anything he's for.<br />LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-48400279915794488522016-10-24T10:39:40.395-07:002016-10-24T10:39:40.395-07:00And speaking of deadly animals and the habit of yo...And speaking of deadly animals and the habit of your cops (and, your road designers (and, your culture)) to neither protect nor serve those most in need:<br /><br />http://www.streetsblog.org/2016/10/24/driver-kills-jazmine-marin-13-near-ozone-park-school-nypd-blames-victim/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-54704787083043102272016-10-24T10:16:43.512-07:002016-10-24T10:16:43.512-07:00Locum: "Even Donzelion, who equates agrarian ...Locum: <i>"Even Donzelion, who equates agrarian employment with "slave labor"..."</i><br /><br />You're being silly. The 13th Amendment links slavery to involuntary servitude. It does not prohibit involuntary servitude as a penalty for crime, but such usages are 'frowned upon' - because it would be quite easy to rebuild a slave economy if criminal justice systems embrace racial inequities.<br /><br />But the real reason why penal labor is seldom used for agrarian purposes, or any other purposes for which there are preexisting firms operating in the market, is it would be unfair to any farmers who could not themselves benefit from such labor. Working in a farm is hard work, but hardly 'cruel' work. And this sort of work may be all that is available for sex offenders and others who cannot find housing and rejoin society.<br /><br /><i>"[Donzelion] remains unusually silent about the US Penal System's Forced Labour program,"</i><br />Because I don't have any particular problem with 'compulsory labor' per se, so long as it's (1) safe, for both prisoners and guards, (2) not driven by racial or other inequities, (3) not operated through corrupt practices, and (4) doesn't harm firms that do not themselves employ penal labor.<br /><br /><i>"why don't they just...declare those pesky agricultural Red States to be giant prisons & forced labour camps ..."</i><br />Because that would violate the Constitution. Which I'm sworn to uphold.donzelionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05991849781932619746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-55961621246775104532016-10-24T10:16:27.535-07:002016-10-24T10:16:27.535-07:00Hi Larry,
Did you have any thoughts on ballot ini...Hi Larry,<br /><br />Did you have any thoughts on ballot initiatives? I'm in Chicago as well. Speaking of which let me know if you ever want to grab a drink sometime. I enjoy your posts and it might be fun to meet.Jacobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03773076186367856200noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-26100445992334331122016-10-24T09:24:34.771-07:002016-10-24T09:24:34.771-07:00I just early-voted in Illinois. This was the firs...I just early-voted in Illinois. This was the first day for it at the suburban Chicago-area locations, and there was a good long line there, even in the middle of the morning. At least remove, that represents howevermany thousands (hopefully millions) of votes which can't be influenced by any October/November surprises.<br /><br />LarryHartnoreply@blogger.com