tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post5271460663560363329..comments2024-03-29T00:39:31.629-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: General Insights into the FutureDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger140125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-33128880697194655292010-04-19T16:17:12.746-07:002010-04-19T16:17:12.746-07:00on to next...on to next...David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-37279489482255772902010-04-19T13:21:03.560-07:002010-04-19T13:21:03.560-07:00Yeah, I can find most of those easy enough, I was ...Yeah, I can find most of those easy enough, I was just thinking that there was an article you did that focused on it as the title subject. I'll probably dig up the essay blog as the most comprehensive reference (and re-read it in the process ^_^ ).<br /><br /><br />Formous: The state of forming one's fame.Ilithi Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10300247936272572280noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-86135419342844894582010-04-19T12:25:27.609-07:002010-04-19T12:25:27.609-07:00Ilithi, I covered that in many places. My 19-part...Ilithi, I covered that in many places. My 19-part "Modernism and Its Enemies" essay-blog went there (anybody have a link?) as did my famed Tolkien piece:<br /><br />http://www.davidbrin.com/tolkien.htm<br /><br />Gonna do a new topic soon.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-87429768969257739462010-04-19T08:40:50.368-07:002010-04-19T08:40:50.368-07:00@ Spirit - I don't think it's time to desp...@ Spirit - I don't think it's time to despair. Corporate media gives big air time to the Know-Nothings for reasons that are patently obvious but in Real America kids are learning to use the internets to bypass all that.<br /><br />And to talk among themselves. 90% of the talk may be sports and gossip but that's always been true. The other X% includes some pretty realistic analysis of what's what. Whether that gets turned into action, of course, remains to be seen.rewinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14008105385364113371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-57129411040200186752010-04-19T06:01:58.910-07:002010-04-19T06:01:58.910-07:00Dr. Brin, didn't you write an article specific...Dr. Brin, didn't you write an article specifically about 'look-back' romanticism vs 'look-forward' enlightenment? I know you've covered the subject in several of your articles, but I thought there was one where it was the actual focus of the article. The subject has come up in a discussion I'm in, and I wanted to find the article to reference it, but I haven't had any luck yet.Ilithi Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10300247936272572280noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-25706790528120317132010-04-18T23:13:05.997-07:002010-04-18T23:13:05.997-07:00How can we fight when the sabotaged education syst...How can we fight when the sabotaged education system in the US churns out generation after generation of undereducated, uninformed, superstitious, hateful, gullible yet 'skeptical' in all the wrong ways? Political thought and decision-making is and seems like it's been out of the hands of those who know what needs doing for decades. Timothy McVeigh-style "US government is Great Satan" sentiment dominates mainstream 'conservative' discussion. It is as likely that Sarah Palin and/or Glenn Beck will be elected to high office in the US in the next ten years than the US will actually take a leading role in the global issues of climate change, ecological annihilation or the energy crisis.<br /><br />If not more so! <br /><br />Not to be too downbeat and despairing, but we're a toddler faced with a calculus problem and not even aware that we've been tasked with solving it.Emperor Dave 2.0https://www.blogger.com/profile/07214236034723588726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-40645670977968837792010-04-18T08:00:02.123-07:002010-04-18T08:00:02.123-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.About Mehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00147326851561209307noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-27633879056019971132010-04-17T18:43:39.200-07:002010-04-17T18:43:39.200-07:00The Voice of the Dolphins and Other Stories... by ...The Voice of the Dolphins and Other Stories... by Leo Szilard ...<br /><br />...who also happens to have been the one who persuaded Einstein to write to Roosevelt about the possibility of an atom bomb.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-35934896723775069002010-04-17T14:17:29.703-07:002010-04-17T14:17:29.703-07:00Evidently Ralph Nader has written a novel in which...Evidently Ralph Nader has written a novel in which the rich will save us......The general plot description reminded me of a nuclear scientist from the 50s (whose name escapes me) who wrote a wonderful short story about scientists who made millions from discoveries due to decoding dolphin language. Their Foundation hired the "brightest and best" from the world at mega salaries. Turns out the inventions were their own, and they essentially bought off the ambitious and dangerous, ushering in an era of world peace.<br /><br />Since you've also written about dolphins, can you help me remember the writer's name?? <br /><br />And my own sensibilites suggest scientists saving the world is much more plausible than the rich....But I doubt they or the Lone Ranger will show up this time.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11209645142396947505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-82396952311210709182010-04-16T16:44:37.707-07:002010-04-16T16:44:37.707-07:00Actually Ian, if you go to the RealClearPolitics s...Actually Ian, if you go to the RealClearPolitics site, click on Congressional Job Approval, you get a list of the polls used to make up the average. Click on any given poll and you get the "drill down" data, much of which is interesting stuff. For which I lack time at the moment. On quick look though, the pro elephant theory did have some support, as there was increased support for Republicans in congress to the tune of around 5%.<br />Quick and superficial look though<br /><br />TTacitus2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-34335375992256243712010-04-16T15:37:05.152-07:002010-04-16T15:37:05.152-07:00"Good questions, and among the many good ques..."Good questions, and among the many good questions that pollsters do not seem to ask. Or maybe they ask them but this data is not reported"<br /><br />Reporting on poll results is generally lousy.<br /><br />But most of the major professional polling organisations do a pretty good job.<br /><br />If at all possible, it's always a good idea to read the report from the poll company themselves, although even that will leave you in the dark on some key points like how they did their renormalisation. (That's where you adjust the weighting you give to various subgroups to make the sample more closely resemble the geenral population. So if you're studying a population that's 10% African-American and your sample is 8% African-American you multiply the African-Americans by 1.25.)Ian Gouldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07666385933765478081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-63431812354623602032010-04-16T09:40:54.097-07:002010-04-16T09:40:54.097-07:00On another note, scientists are working to protect...On another note, <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2010/TECH/04/16/medical.device.security/index.html" rel="nofollow">scientists are working to protect implanted medical devices from hacker attacks</a>. Why do I now see a murder mystery being written where the killer was a hacker paid by someone to kill the unfortunate victim so they could get the inheritance? <br /><br />Hmm. I wonder how long it would take to write up such a story....<br /><br />Rob H.Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-81488609814699006492010-04-16T09:37:23.848-07:002010-04-16T09:37:23.848-07:00@Robert -
- Perhaps Fox was most annoyed at the T...@Robert -<br /><br />- Perhaps Fox was most annoyed at the Tea Party's plans to use their "intellectual" property Hannity to make money for itself, rather than for Fox.<br /><br />Cynical of me to think it's about money rather than ethics ;-)rewinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14008105385364113371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-56875448801585667412010-04-16T09:10:26.803-07:002010-04-16T09:10:26.803-07:00Ilithi
Good questions, and among the many good que...Ilithi<br />Good questions, and among the many good questions that pollsters do not seem to ask. Or maybe they ask them but this data is not reported. There are after all sorts of polls, and I rather suspect that both parties commision some of greater specificity, whose results are kept quiet.<br />As we are still learning what was actually in the health care bill I am sure that attitudes towards it are still in flux. <br />Tacitus2<br />(in a temporary quiet stretch)Tacitus2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-86200989400827532682010-04-16T08:39:09.716-07:002010-04-16T08:39:09.716-07:00Question to Rob and Tacitus:
Do your theories tak...Question to Rob and Tacitus:<br /><br />Do your theories take into account the large number of people who didn't like the healthcare bill not because they sided with the Republican opposition to it, but because they felt it didn't go nearly far enough? I've spoken to a good number of people who hate the Healthcare bill (now Healthcare law), but not because they hate "Obamacare", instead because they felt it had been gutted by the GOP and a conservative-appealing Democratic caucus. Could the general disapproval of the bill reflect the negative feelings of people who, like myself, dislike the bill because it didn't do enough, didn't go far enough, and compromised too much for the zero-return from the Republicans, but recognize that it's a starting point and that the Dems probably couldn't have done much better in the current political climate, and having a general satisfaction that Congress (or the Democratic side at least) did about the best job it could do under the circumstances?<br /><br />I know there are many who share that sentiment, including many here, and many more who disapprove of the bill AND congress because they feel he Dems didn't do enough and failed to deliver real reform. <br /><br />In short, not all opposition to healthcare reform and congress comes from pro-GOP/anti-Dem/anti-reform groups, and I would wager that nearly as much if not more opposition comes from people who oppose it for the opposite reasons. Does your wager take that into account?<br /><br /><br />On Mars: Woohoo! } : 8 = DIlithi Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10300247936272572280noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-31678231403501579372010-04-16T08:37:57.018-07:002010-04-16T08:37:57.018-07:00(welcome back) Tacitus said:
Theory Three, the Ba...(welcome back) Tacitus said:<br /><i><br />Theory Three, the Barnum Hypothesis.<br />Americans are dumber than you might think. They rile up on cue, then quiet down with various happy news and symbolic administration stunts. <br /><br />Theory Four, Barnum's Nightmare. Americans are smarter than you might think. They recognize that much of the recent bile was media hype, and have returned to the baseline of attitude towards Congress. Indeed, from 17.4% approval there is only up.<br /></i><br /><br />I'm glad you included Theory 4, because I was going to take serious issue with 3. Oh, I used to believe it, especially around Y2K. But the facts on the ground rarely agreed with the theory. Well before there was a David Brin blog, I came to realize how much the imagery of "sheeple" did not come from real life experience, but from popular fiction and the tv news (pardon the redundancy).<br /><br /><i><br />Theory Five. Americans just are not virulent, spiteful folks. This is not the Balkans where "Die You Serbian Pig" is the standard political attitude. We move on. <br /></i><br /><br />As a good American, I am proudest to believe this theory. The cautious part of me (or the fence-sitting liberal part) is skeptical of believing something just because I WANT to believe it, but it does jibe both with our national narrative about ourselves AND what most actual real people I know are like.<br /><br /><br /><i><br />And as a correlary, its spring, damn it! And one of the nicest ones in living memory. <br /></i><br /><br />Which of course proves nothing about Al Gore. :) Sorry.<br /><br /><i><br />Now, if the Icelandic dust settles as quickly as the health care fallout I can actually get to England in 9 days without paddling.<br /></i><br /><br />Maybe the Icelandic dust will counteract global warming? Serious question, actually. I remember the Mt Penatubo "summer" of 1992 as one of the coldest in memory.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-16801581262520355182010-04-16T07:41:22.604-07:002010-04-16T07:41:22.604-07:00Rob, I tellya, I just sampled a Fox and Friends re...Rob, I tellya, I just sampled a Fox and Friends report about the Boy Scouts. I've thought this for years but I'm certain now that the commentators are running the network there. <br /><br />Perhaps Murdoch's higher-up execs are beginning to see the backfire possible from that circumstance? So, yeah, I think they don't want to try and saddle that tiger. <br /><br />FN used to actually be a news network, back when I watched it in 2000-2001. More's the pity.Rob Perkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15618647194288598056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-4066636167646309572010-04-16T07:38:57.672-07:002010-04-16T07:38:57.672-07:00Rob
Fox is likely as concerned about the Tea Party...Rob<br />Fox is likely as concerned about the Tea Party as all the rest of the political establishment. And they should be.<br /><br />Ian<br />Odd is the only word for it.<br />Still, in archeology three post holes makes a wall, and in politics, three data points makes a trend.<br />Lets try and make sense of it:<br /><br />Theory One<br />The Donkey Vindicated. Maybe folks are happy about the outcome of the health care legislation or pleased with the resolve shown in getting there. Alas, polls do not show a rise in the popularity of Obamacare, Obama himself or the Dem party in the generic congressional vote.<br /><br />Theory Two<br />Pachydermus Resurgans. The rise in Congressional approval reflects more people happy about the Republican obstructionism. Seems unlikely. More recent stunts like trying to stall extention of unemployment benefits, while defensible fiscal policy, are tone deaf politically.<br /><br />Theory Three, the Barnum Hypothesis.<br />Americans are dumber than you might think. They rile up on cue, then quiet down with various happy news and symbolic administration stunts. <br /><br />Theory Four, Barnum's Nightmare. Americans are smarter than you might think. They recognize that much of the recent bile was media hype, and have returned to the baseline of attitude towards Congress. Indeed, from 17.4% approval there is only up.<br /><br />Theory Five. Americans just are not virulent, spiteful folks. This is not the Balkans where "Die You Serbian Pig" is the standard political attitude. We move on. And as a correlary, its spring, damn it! And one of the nicest ones in living memory. Probably there would be a 5% rise in approval for dysentery, used car salesmen and mangy cats if you polled for that. I call it Vernal Affective Transcendence. Maybe thats what the talk of VAT coming out of DC is all about? (guess I might fall into the Barnum category!).<br /><br />Now, if the Icelandic dust settles as quickly as the health care fallout I can actually get to England in 9 days without paddling.<br /><br />Tacitus2Tacitus2noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36858403989631151202010-04-16T07:06:26.585-07:002010-04-16T07:06:26.585-07:00The Washington Post reports that Fox News is tryin...The Washington Post reports that <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/16/AR2010041601393_3.html" rel="nofollow">Fox News is trying to distance itself from the Tea Party</a>:<br /><br /><b>Hannity Recalled</b><br /><br />Sean Hannity has appeared at GOP events to raise money for the party. But now he's apparently gone too far:<br /><br />"Fox News has pulled Sean Hannity from his starring role in a tea party rally just one week after Rupert Murdoch said the network should not be supporting the tea party movement.<br /><br />"Hannity was set to broadcast Thursday night from a tea party rally in Cincinnati, but was rushing back to New York Thursday evening after network executives learned of the plan and said it was unacceptable. <br /><br />" 'Fox News never agreed to allow the Cincinnati Tea Party organizers to use Sean Hannity's television program to profit from broadcasting his show from the event,' Bill Shine, the network's executive vice president of programming, told the Los Angeles Times. 'When senior executives in New York were made aware of this, we changed our plans for tonight's show.' " <br /><br />---------<br /><br />Now the question is: is Fox News distancing itself from the Tea Party to try and disempower claims that the Tea Party is a part of Fox News? Or are they distancing themselves because they've realized this is one tiger they do not want to saddle and ride, lest they fall off and get eaten alive?<br /><br />Rob H.Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-3726124105030453702010-04-15T22:10:27.454-07:002010-04-15T22:10:27.454-07:00"Bad Astronomy" guy Phil Plait provides ..."Bad Astronomy" guy Phil Plait provides a lengthy analysis of Obama's <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2010/04/15/obama-lays-out-bold-and-visionary-revised-space-policy/" rel="nofollow">Obama lays out bold and visionary space policy</a>.<br /><br />Yeah, it's amusing how red in the face some folks have gotten about the privitization initiative. For over a decade any article about space travel on Slashdot would include lots of comments along the lines of <i>NASA sucks! It's an unimaginative bureaucracy! Hasn't anyone read Heinlein! Free enterprise will do it cheaper and better!</i><br /><br />Faced with actual privatization, NASA suddenly becomes a treasure trove of expertise. (Which it is, but it isn't going to go away overnight.)Stefan Joneshttp://home.comcast.net/~stefan_jones/kira_grinning_lo.JPGnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-3513921606882777922010-04-15T21:56:01.912-07:002010-04-15T21:56:01.912-07:00Anyoen following Tacitus and my discussion over th...Anyoen following Tacitus and my discussion over the likely impact of passing health care on Congressional approval ratings might be interested by the latest poll reproted by Realclearpolitics.<br /><br />The AP poll has approval for Congress at 28% - still low but the highest result in some time.<br /><br />That's three polls since the passage of the health care Bill passed - and all have been above the pre-passage average.<br /><br />The real odd bit is that support for the Bill has dropped over the same period.Ianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01739671401151990700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-6472042536136239292010-04-15T21:32:52.663-07:002010-04-15T21:32:52.663-07:00Obama commits the US to a crewed mission ot Mars o...Obama commits the US to a crewed mission ot Mars orbit within 30 years - and wants a new heavy life man-rated launcher by 2015.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />" "We should attempt a return to the surface of the moon first, as previously planned. But I just have to say, pretty bluntly here, we've been there before. Buzz has been there," Obama said.<br /><br />"There's a lot more of space to explore and a lot more to learn when we do," he said, to loud applause.<br /><br />"By 2025 we expect new spacecraft designed for long journeys to allow us to begin the first ever crew missions beyond the moon into deep space.<br /><br />"So, we'll start by sending astronauts to an asteroid for the first time in history. By the mid-2030s, I believe we can send humans to orbit Mars and return them safely to earth, and a landing on Mars will follow." "<br /><br />http://www.physorg.com/news190564316.htmlIanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01739671401151990700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-10459996309375585372010-04-15T21:29:20.798-07:002010-04-15T21:29:20.798-07:00Interesting article from The Economist about innov...Interesting article from The Economist about innovation in the devel3oping world.<br /><br />The article argues that like Japan, China and India are not simply competing with the west in simple basic products on the basis of cheap wages, they're increasingly developing genuinely new products and radically redesigning products and manufacturing products to slash prices.<br /><br />The Japanese auto industry hammered the US and European car makers in the 70's, combined China and India are twenty times the population of Japan and are becoming major competitors in a much wider range of industries than Japan ever was.<br /><br />http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15908408&source=hptextfeatureIanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01739671401151990700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-40841233094445705052010-04-15T13:45:16.044-07:002010-04-15T13:45:16.044-07:00Not sure if you've seen this David, but start-...Not sure if you've seen this David, but start-up by some Singularity University alum: http://civiguard.com/Rocky Persaudhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02966159044771053090noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-67183968469520914422010-04-15T08:57:11.913-07:002010-04-15T08:57:11.913-07:00And from another Fox News article, we have an inte...And <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/04/14/obama-nasa-plan-buzz-aldrin-neil-armstrong-sally-ride/" rel="nofollow">from another Fox News article</a>, we have an interesting comment from Buzz Aldrin, calling for an international effort to build a permanent Lunar base:<br /><br />"Famed astronaut Buzz Aldrin weighed in Wednesday evening following the revelations of Obama's plans, also endorsing the president's new direction for NASA. <br /><br />"The truth is, that we have already been to the moon -- some 40 years ago. A near-term focus on lowering the cost of access to space and on developing key, cutting-edge technologies to take us further, faster, is just what our nation needs to maintain its position as the leader in space exploration for the rest of this century," Aldrin said.<br /><br />The second man to walk on the moon, Aldrin told Fox News on Thursday that targeting the moon alone wasn't good enough. He called for the creation of a public/private international lunar development corporation that would open the moon up for exploration and development. <br /><br />"We should have the European Space Agency invite China to become a member of the Space Station community, and that can lead to this activity at the moon," Aldrin said. "We will barter off our experience for assistance," he argued, calling for a two-phase, 25-year program to establish a permanent base on Mars."<br /><br />Rob H., who has been touting an international lunar base on this site for a while now ;)Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.com