tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post5039420926694086430..comments2024-03-28T13:08:04.959-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: YOU are so great (and your civilization.) A roundup of tech and science newsDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger67125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-3824491226586629072017-10-26T17:58:45.955-07:002017-10-26T17:58:45.955-07:00Har!
Now onward
onward
Har!<br /><br />Now onward<br /><br />onward<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-4298518344028747832017-10-26T17:47:34.241-07:002017-10-26T17:47:34.241-07:00@David | I need that machine!
What you need is t...@David | <i> I need that machine!</i><br /><br />What you need is those 'mirrors' and the pendulum near the end of the story. With that, you'll produce copies that cohere enough to matter. <br /><br />There are days when I view your posts and comments here as that technique. I'm not sure where the mirrors are, though, or who they are.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-82281594785288202682017-10-26T17:41:48.357-07:002017-10-26T17:41:48.357-07:00@Tim H | Just guessing that it's still early t...@Tim H | <i>Just guessing that it's still early to fix schools right, we don't know how the debris will settle yet, as the breakage will continue until all hope of profit vanishes.</i><br /><br />To what system/concept are you faithful then?<br /><br /><i>The fans of privatization overlook the tendency of business folk to have the lowest expenses and limitless prices first, any fulfillment of expected service will be coincidental.</i><br /><br />It obviously isn’t markets.<br /><br />Who do you expect will fix the schools right? Also, is there a single ‘right way’?<br />Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-19152474660740240172017-10-26T17:31:59.751-07:002017-10-26T17:31:59.751-07:00Tim J: Thank you for your thoughtful words. I cert...Tim J: Thank you for your thoughtful words. I certainly appreciate the encouragement.<br /><br />“the first step towards becoming the responsible grownup conservative party we need is to grow a spine and do what is needed to be done concerning Trump”<br /><br />Alas, this is mistaking a symptom for the disease. Unless you also impeach the Murdochs and Fox and their allies, there is nothing that can save the GOP, which is now a rabid, undead were-elephant. The true hope for US conservatives is if the critical mass of Corker, Flake, McCain and such hold a convention for a new party of sane-adult conservatives.<br /><br />Ah the image of velociraptors and spaceships! Of course it is now a cliche that “Dinos are extinct cause they didn’t have a space program.” I love it!<br /><br />Alas, I am engaged in so many things that KILN PEOPLE was a cry… a scream(!) for help! I need that machine!<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-83860961326277403842017-10-26T17:29:57.034-07:002017-10-26T17:29:57.034-07:00@Smurphs | I’ll agree with you up to a point, but ...@Smurphs | I’ll agree with you up to a point, but with an 18 yr old son on the spectrum, I feel entitled to speak on his behalf. I’ve seen families hide them and churches warehouse them, but I’ve also seen schools providing babysitting services and intentionally avoiding giving anyone any hope for their child’s future. Hope is one of the virtues that I keep coming back to because a distinct lack of it is Despair. I’ve seen way too much of that and come too close to it myself.<br /><br />There is (currently) no money it apparently, but I have noticed that teachers who can manage to take on moderate to severe needs students are paid a premium… by government of course. ANYTIME someone is paid a premium for a job, it is worth looking at why that is so. Economic theory teaches that wages should be fairly even between all people no matter their skills because humans are teachable. Can a janitor learn to be a CEO? In theory, yes. In practice, it is awful rare. I’ve seen one make a jump to engineering because the team I was on had the courage to let him learn on-the-job, though. We couldn’t pay a real engineer, so it wasn’t like we had a choice. Yet, some people make way more than others. One can talk for days about why this is and get nowhere, but the wage difference is still interesting evidence of something happening.<br /><br />It is also the case that anytime someone is paid more than expected; there is probably an entrepreneurial opportunity in there somewhere. Fools and their ideas are cheap until someone works up the courage to realize one and put it to the test.<br /><br /><i>And if the government is in it, it has a right to put their thumb on the scale.</i><br /><br />Well… YOU have the right to influence the scale as one of the taxpayers. (I don’t hold to the idea that governments have rights.) I have no issue with that as long as you keep a mind open enough to consider the possibility that some fool of an entrepreneur would like to have a go at building and marketing a better mouse trap.<br />Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-70176447059076246852017-10-26T17:00:13.318-07:002017-10-26T17:00:13.318-07:00@Paul SB | People are asking all the wrong questio...@Paul SB | <i>People are asking all the wrong questions, so it's no surprise that they are getting all the wrong answers.</i><br /><br />Yah. I agree. I don’t know what to do about it, but I agree many people are mistaken about what is going on in the field.<br /><br /><i>I remember Larry saying he had read Dan Ariely's "Predictably Irrational" but I don't remember if you did. If you haven't, it's worth your time.</i><br /><br />I did. It was a few years ago when I started down this path I’m on. That book helped me break with the nonsense built into classical economics. Many other things have helped me since by providing other perspectives. I no longer agree with people who argue that we are irrational, though. We are simply human. We don’t optimize on our ‘rational’ best interests any more than we consider people who hold to prudence-only as being virtuous of character. Skip the religious nonsense layered on top of virtue ethics and you’ll find a system many of us in the west use moderately well as a guide. We aren’t rational in the strictest sense of prudence because prudence isn’t the only virtue by which we measure ourselves and others. Look at what David means by ‘cheater’ and you’ll see an accusation that some are guilty of vice. Can we name them? Over-optimization on Prudence becomes Greed, but there are other vices that some cheaters display too.<br /><br /><i>It helps to explain why faith in the market is misplaced.</i><br /><br />It’s funny that you use the word ‘faith’ here since Faith is one of the virtues in the western system. Some call it ‘Loyalty’ instead, but the general sense of it is ‘loyalty to’. If I’m faithful to my wife, I’m loyal to her, but not necessarily blind to what she does. If I’m faithful to the market, I’m loyal to ‘it’, but not necessarily blind. <br /><br />Many years ago, David put up a post pointing out distinguishing between two systems. One involved Guided Allocation of Resources. GAR for short. The other involved Faith in Blind Markets. FIBM for short. He pointed out that both are bad ideas and the lesson stuck with me. I was paraphrasing him one day on another site and someone pointed out that I sounded like Hayek when I made my pitch. I might have also used David’s ‘Show me it EVER working through 6000 years of history’ line too. I forget. 8) It was David’s FIBM/GAR discussion that started it for me, though. I was always something of a classical liberal, but I hadn’t really thought about it before that post. (Now I’m a registered Libertarian. Ha!)<br /><br />Years later, I’ve adopted a view that removal of ‘blind’ from FIBM fixes a whole lot of awfulness. I’m still faithful to markets as I’m pretty sure they are what distinguished us moderns from our ancient HG cousins. Trading outside our kin groups is a really strange thing for an animal species to do. We are a different kind of social human as a result.<br />Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-73729277839482286012017-10-26T16:45:25.743-07:002017-10-26T16:45:25.743-07:00Alfred said:
My wife’s experience with special ne...Alfred said:<br /><br /><i>My wife’s experience with special needs education is showing me that they rely heavily on a kind of supply chain. I want that all to be open enough to be part of a fair market. Right now it isn’t because the state has a heavy thumb on the scale. They mean well, but I think we could do better.</i><br /><br />Unfortunately, this is one of those "in theory" vs "in reality" arguments. I, too, have some experience in Special Education. In theory, I don't disagree with you. In reality, 6000 years of human civilization (to use the doc's phrase) has said, let the family hide them, let the churches warehouse them or let them die. There's no money in it without the government. And if the government is in it, it has a right to put their thumb on the scale. (hopefully wisely, but that's a different discussion).<br /><br />Smurphsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-27752293124619541022017-10-26T16:29:23.505-07:002017-10-26T16:29:23.505-07:00@LarryHart | If schools are businesses which go in...@LarryHart | <i>If schools are businesses which go in and out of business, what happens to the kids whose schools disappear? And if schools are free to accept or reject individual kids for their own reasons, what happens to the kids who don't get accepted?</i><br /><br />Yah. Sounds like the same kind of problem we have in the health care space. I suspect the solutions for one will provide a framework for the other.<br /><br />I also suspect there will always be a need for public education. At a minimum we will need it as part of a social safety net. We shouldn’t be relying upon it if we can help it, though. We take resources from those who truly need it.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-7058716446420512662017-10-26T16:16:01.361-07:002017-10-26T16:16:01.361-07:00@Duncan | The problem is that a "school"...@Duncan | <i>The problem is that a "school" is not - or should not be - the Unit</i><br /><br />I agree, but I see this as equivalent to saying that schools have supply chains just like other businesses. I can already think of some of the suppliers associated with my wife’s grad school. I have no doubt they’d all be happy to produce content to the broader market.<br /><br />This is a non-problem as far as I’m concerned. I’ve lived this problem my entire professional career. Some things are worth buying instead of producing locally. Some are not. Each business has to contemplate its core competencies and whether locally produced content adds to their competitive edge. If what they need isn’t part of their core or doesn’t give them an edge, they should try to buy it over producing it. If they can’t buy it, that is an entrepreneurial opportunity for the rest of us.<br /><br />I live this in the IT space. I can write issue management ticketing systems till the cows come home, but almost no one should need me to do that unless their core competencies include building better ones and selling them to everyone else. I can’t tell you how many I’ve written, though. I’ve lost count. I always advise against it, but my wallet has benefited from the lunacy of clueless management teams. I’ve learned to maintain a portfolio of past code, listen carefully in early project meetings so they think I’m collecting their ‘unique’ requirements, and then I deliver a re-skinned copy a little later. When I do that as an independent contractor, I AM the supplier they need, but don’t understand that they need.<br /><br />Back to schools, though. My wife’s experience with special needs education is showing me that they rely heavily on a kind of supply chain. I want that all to be open enough to be part of a fair market. Right now it isn’t because the state has a heavy thumb on the scale. They mean well, but I think we could do better.<br /><br /><i>If fact in the USA that is exactly what you do have - only you call them cities and states</i><br /><br />Yah. It’s in everything, though, and I’m not inclined to analyze. The market is an ecosystem, remember? All I need to do is allow for natural selection forces to kill off some of them while encouraging others to have a go of it. The market knows FAR more than I ever will. It is a multi-million headed analyzer. I can’t compete with that. No one can.<br />Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-45045922976266159392017-10-26T14:01:42.734-07:002017-10-26T14:01:42.734-07:00Tim Johnson:
...and I'll try to be brief.
...Tim Johnson:<br /><i><br />...and I'll try to be brief. <br /></i><br /><br />Heh.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-54987153374928779202017-10-26T13:34:42.327-07:002017-10-26T13:34:42.327-07:00Dr. Brin,
I've read your blog for some time,...Dr. Brin,<br /><br />I've read your blog for some time, and you even had a nice response to my one and only post quite a few<br />years back. Never enough time for commenting, but I thought I'd try to squeeze in a few minutes, now if I<br />could. As you mention the apprentice creator topic here, which was the thing I responded to<br />back then, I suppose I could start there. :) As back then, I still do love the idea..but,<br />sadly, still have not seen any evidence that anyone created us for any particular purpose. But I<br />do like the optimistic tone and, in general like the messaging you convey about all we've done<br />as a civilization (something I've tried to contribute a little bit to in my very tiny way as a<br />physicist/software engr). But as you no doubt understand, due to events of the past, say, 2 years,<br />my own sense of optimism has been under heavy assault. The destiny of humans or our civilization is<br />not set in stone, and it does seem at times that we are collectively determined to move backwards.<br /><br />But on to briefly touch on some of the relevant points to which you often refer, and I'll try to be brief. <br />Impeachment. I fully share your fear about Pence. He is truly dangerous at many<br />levels. I still push for impeachment though. But only by writing to my rep. I explain that<br />Trump is the Republican's Frankenstein's monster and the first step towards becoming the<br />responsible grownup conservative party we need is to grow a spine and do what is needed to be done<br />concerning Trump. My rep is a Republican, and a very strong Trump supporter. So, my pleas are, well..washed away like tears in the rain, I'm sure. But at least he is aware that not all in his district<br />are happy with the current situation. My ideal scenario would be an impeachment, but with only 2-1 years of Pence, too few, hopefully to cause too much lasting damage, and hopefully blocked by a<br />Democrat held Congress (hey..my daydream, my rules of probability!). I admit, my ideal may<br />be biased by the following...<br /> <br />Short straw gambit: good approach, and I'm glad I'm not in Congress to have to consider this.<br />I really utterly detest the guy. I do get along quite well<br />with people I do not like and those holding views to which I strongly disagree (neighbors,<br />extended family..etc.), but do not think meeting with Trump would go over....well.<br />I even did a drama class once, and regret not having tried out a<br />screen test back when I lived in LA. But get along with Trump? I'm not that good of an actor.<br />But I get your point. But also remember his statements about the central park 5,<br />his fondness of dictator strongmen, his constant lying. There is something very<br />undemocratic, dark, and disturbing in the core of his character. You may lead this<br />horse to water and get him to drink. But he'll probably spit it out and then try<br />to drown you. Schumer may be having some luck eventually, but we'll see.<br /><br />On to the fun stuff, since you mentioned Jurassic Park in the context of the very<br />interesting discovery of crustacean in dinosaur herbivore diets. I agree with your<br />take on Jurassic Park though, and would mention in that context the monitoring<br />program mentioned in the book (though disappointedly not in the movie) which stopped<br />counting at the expected number of a species of dinosaur and so missed the fact that<br />they were reproducing. More people not directly involved and<br />asking questions may have caught that.<br />More importantly, what I've always wondered though is this: have you ever, while watching Jurassic Park, <br />sat back and thought, "hmmm...Jurassic Uplift!"? Velociraptors working with humans and piloting spaceships? <br />What could go wrong?<br /><br />Also..read Existence and loved it. Only baffled by how you find the time to write with all the activities you seem to be engaged in..Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10800393217188611331noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-35262609373826579602017-10-26T13:28:38.065-07:002017-10-26T13:28:38.065-07:00Dr. Brin, this looks like something near and dear ...Dr. Brin, this looks like something near and dear to your heart (and to any true American).<br /><br />Georgia election server wiped after suit filed<br /><br />https://apnews.com/877ee1015f1c43f1965f63538b035d3f/APNewsBreak:-Georgia-election-server-wiped-after-suit-filedAhcuahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06514651362748555460noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-89884423473339388912017-10-26T12:48:32.647-07:002017-10-26T12:48:32.647-07:00Here's an article about the liberal / leftist ...Here's an article about the liberal / leftist divide in America that makes some cogent point, IMO. <br /><br />https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/oct/26/the-liberal-left-divide-reshaping-american-politics<br /><br />What the article doesn't mention is how much influence Russian operators had (and continue to have) making the divide much worse. As someone that (mostly) takes the leftist stance as described in the article, I can attest to the sheer number of obvious bots, Russian propaganda, and paid trolls that are weighing in to make this divide deeper. And our host, of course. Dr. Brin never misses a chance to bash the left in order to polish his "centrist" credentials, turning away potential allies all the while. The last few paragraphs could be considered CITOKATE written just for him. <br /><br /><br /><br />matthewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17757867868731829206noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-57121793229133310772017-10-26T08:36:21.369-07:002017-10-26T08:36:21.369-07:00Alfred Differ said:
“I think public school systems...Alfred Differ said:<br /><i>“I think public school systems have an unfair advantage in what should be a market for education.”</i><br /><br />David Brin replied:<br /><i>"As I said, that incantation fits my prejudices, because we all owe public education huge gratitude, but it has clearly hit a wall. But the notion of charters and vouchers is being soiled by crap implementation by fanatics."</i><br /><br />I think it's crap implementation too, but from the point of view of the people making the money off of charter school businesses the implementation has been pretty damn good. For an excellent example, if you haven't already take a look at the outfit that runs, among others, <i>Imagine</i> charter schools.<br /><br />Before something like charter schools could possibly work anything remotely like Alfred supposes they could you would first have to fix a host of underlying problems in our socio-economic-political systems. Broadly speaking the liars, cheaters and stealers still have the upper hand. When enough money is at stake those with enough money and power game the system by influencing legislation that enables them to make more money while reducing or eliminating their risk and competition. This is exactly what has happened with charter schools.<br /><br />Even if you regulated things effectively enough to prevent what has happened to date with charter schools, I am far from convinced that private businesses competing for market share would lead to better schooling. Private businesses are in business to make money. I don't see how a business providing a good education for the general population could make enough profit to be attractive enough at costs that the average person could afford. Looking at the history of schooling (not exhaustively mind you) over the past few hundred years, particularly in the US over the past 150 or so years, it doesn't seem particularly plausible.<br /><br />I understand the idea that open markets regulated to be fair & flat can lead to better outcomes and I heartily concur that they do. But it seems obvious to me that they don't work best for all problems. Alfred has said that he agrees that so far the charter school experiment sucks but that he thinks if it were implemented better it might turn out to be a winner. I think that is sensible, though I am doubtful were he is optimistic. Alfred, do you think it is plausible that, if implemented better, that governments can do things, like education for example, better than they have? That it is possible for governments to do things, like education for example, in such a way that fosters and takes advantage of innovation in ways similar to how competition in flat/fair/free markets sometimes can? I think the obvious answer is yes. And governments don't have to make a profit. That affects lots of things which can be of benefit.<br /><br />Another factor in this issue, as in all issues, is the whole "doing what can be shown to actually work." Whether education is government provided or provided by private businesses the methods used should be arrived at by using the methods of science. Test it, evaluate the results, devise new method, test it, discard if it doesn't work, continue . . . Instead we let tradition and lying, cheating, stealing, carny alpha types make money and realize their alphaness while human potential that would be of benefit to all of us is wasted by the metric mega tonne.Darrell Ehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14054311762477388637noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-43974517245030046292017-10-26T08:00:31.084-07:002017-10-26T08:00:31.084-07:00PaulSB,
When I was in middle school, there was a ...PaulSB,<br /><br />When I was in middle school, there was a teacher's strike. And it was pretty tense. The teachers on the picket line, and the students on the other side of it. And I won't ever forget the art teacher who technically crossed the line to just talk of a bunch of us students. Nor how he explained what was going on, and how he didn't like what affect it was having on the students, but how it would be better in the long run.<br /><br />As far as CDs go, at one time there WAS a monopoly. And when others entered the market, there was no point to undercutting, as it would have resulted in less overall profit. Because cornering the market always takes second place to making more money. Also, the current statutory payment for a cover is $0.09 per song per manufactured instance (unless negotiated otherwise, which rarely happens). I had a musician friend who was reluctant to sell over the internet. So I made a deal with him to do his online stuff, but he had to actually pay the license for the songs he covered. I made a few hundred bucks, and eventually he took the exit clause we'd arranged.raitonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-87308464941099166312017-10-26T07:59:59.030-07:002017-10-26T07:59:59.030-07:00(continued)
During the previous boundary changes,...(continued)<br /><br />During the previous boundary changes, the school board attempted to correct the rich and poor thing. They tried to bus a block of million-dollar houses to the 'poor' school. The result was that the local Catholic school got a big bump in enrollment. And half the board lost the next election. When this came up, I stated that the problem can't be solved with busing by busing rich students, because they have alternatives. You can only solve it by busing by busing the poor students, because they have no alternative. But... most of the parental public that spoke at the meetings were from the 'poor' school, and didn't want to go to another school.<br /><br />Another odd thing that kept coming up was 'diversity'. Another of those terms that obscures what it's really saying. It really meant 'hire more black teachers', under the idea that somehow it'll improve things. Never could get an answer when I'd ask whether the asker would prefer to hire a mediocre black teacher or an excellent white teacher. Then I'd point out that I didn't believe their argument that you need teachers that are like you in order to learn. Every elementary school teacher I had (except for physical education) was an old, unmarried, childless woman. And the only such people I knew. They certainly weren't 'like me' in any meaningful way.<br /><br />As for 'competition', hell no! At least, not with the parents choosing. Even with the simple limitation on how much they could screw things up by having to sign my highs school class selections, it still took more than a decade to undo the damage done to me by my parents interaction with the educational system. Yes, anecdote. But it's mine and colors my thinking. If I knew now what I knew then, I'd have just changed the form after it was signed. I'd have gotten in trouble at home, but that would have just been more on the pile. At that point, I still tried to color within the lines.raitonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-83011624617473238442017-10-26T07:59:34.987-07:002017-10-26T07:59:34.987-07:00My background:
I've taught, though not as a pr...My background:<br />I've taught, though not as a profession. Tutored in high school and college. Been a martial arts instructor. Currently a soccer coach. And a host of other minor stuff. In the last few years, I've been quite involved in the local school district, participating on both the long-range planning and boundary re-drawing committees (we're building 2 new elementary schools). And I speak to both the School Board and City Council when necessary. My wife is currently treasurer of the local elementary school's parent organization.<br /><br />As I see it, one of the great problems of our current public education system is that no one other than the teachers seems to understand the one fundamental thing about education and learning. It's not about whiz-bang technology. It's not about new buildings. It's not about charters or vouchers or any of the crap that gets talked about.<br /><br />The best predictor of student success is the connection between the student and teacher. And that almost never gets addressed.<br /><br />I don't think we've hit a wall, I think our attention is in the wrong place.<br /><br />So, as I said, our district is building 2 new elementary schools. The school-age population is growing rapidly. And one of the things I can separate out of the local politics is that I'm pretty happy that the 2 referenda concerning this passed with large margins. But this requires moving the boundaries of the existing schools. Most of that boundary shifting concerns moving students to the new schools. Unfortunately, my children will be moving schools, and to one of the new schools. My poor son will have been to 4 different institutions in 4 years (daycare, 4K, kindergarten and 1st grade). But on the good side, it won't cause him nearly the troubles it would have caused me.<br /><br />When the proposal of the committee was presented to the board, one of the members (who probably won't get my vote next time around, assuming a decent opponent) had a couple problems with the plan. Specifically, he wasn't happy that the shining new buildings wouldn't be full in their first several years of operation. Because, as he says, those new buildings are so much better! Besides not understanding the point I made above, it was inherently insulting to the rest of the schools. And if it were actually so, he was failing in the duty he was elected for by allowing the other schools to not be as good. So he was told.<br /><br />And he didn't like (and there was no good solution to) the 'rich' school and the 'poor' school. Yes, the committee tried to figure out how to not have that. But people aggregate, and the low-cost housing and the high-cost housing tends to not be in the same neighborhood. He also committed the cardinal sin of, in his so-called solution of saying of a large number of students 'they're being bused anyway'. As if that means that their needs and the needs of their families were somehow less important because they did not walk to school.<br /><br />Some asides from the committee meetings:<br /><br />There was a lot of talk about 'demographics' and 'equity'. I spoke up and said that if we were going to talk about race and money, let's talk about race and money. What color shoes I wear is a demographic, and I didn't want to talk about that.raitonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-56323763870281805932017-10-26T06:54:18.764-07:002017-10-26T06:54:18.764-07:00Paul SB:
To work off of Larry's Yogi Bera quo...Paul SB:<br /><i><br />To work off of Larry's Yogi Bera quote, the story well tell about ourselves and what actually happens are two different things.<br /></i><br /><br />Or to mix allusions, this one from Neil Gaiman's "Sandman":<br /><i>"Intent and outcome are rarely coincident."</i>LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-11039794490862024632017-10-26T05:56:42.655-07:002017-10-26T05:56:42.655-07:00Tim,
You are likely right on that one. Once the b...Tim,<br /><br />You are likely right on that one. Once the business sharks start circling it becomes virtually impossible to rescue the prey. This is especially so here, where SofA is focused so intently on government and so much less intently on other authorities, like big business. The culture allows predators into the upper echelons by normalizing them and giving them honor. Results matter more than decency. To work off of Larry's Yogi Bera quote, the story well tell about ourselves and what actually happens are two different things. In theory the bank that offers the best product to customers should get all the customers and the rest go out of business, but that rarely happens except to very small businesses. When a handful of big businesses have cornered a market, customers have nowhere to turn to. Allowing the banks to include these predatory arbitration clauses does not mean some other bank will undercut them any more than competition means retailers will undercut each other until prices become reasonable. I knew a fellow who worked in manufacturing CDs who said that a CD cost around $0.80 to manufacture, package, ship, pay royalties to the musicians and cover artists. Yet for decades CDs cost around $16.00 each, and there wasn't a monopoly. Several manufacturers arrived at the same price. No one undercut everyone else. They were quite happy raking in profits over 1000%. It was in their interest to keep the profits high and NOT undercut each other. Price wars are like arms races, except that in the end the execs have less money to show off and buy luxury display items with. And to that the classism that comes from "bourgeios dignity" and you get a class of people who feel entitled to everyone else's money. I can mention Enron again, you know, the smartest guys in the room?<br /><br />Privatized schools will go the same way. Few people understand brains - and especially the brains of children - well enough to be able to tell the difference between good education and bad education. I spent my 11th grade year in a rich snob school, and the only difference between there and the dirt-poor downtown school I went to the year before is that the kids' parents had very high expectations, so the kids tended to try harder. otherwise the curriculum, pedagogy and procedures were no different. People just don't know anything better, so even the rich people don't educate any better, it's just that the rich kids tend to take it more seriously. Ultimately it's not there education that gets them the high-paying jobs, though, it's their connections and the prestige attached to an Ivy League education. Humans are irrational, psychological beings, not H. economicus.<br /><br />In East Asian countries the schools are mostly public, but there are lots of private tutoring businesses - "after-school schools" or bushibans. This works a little better, because everyone gets educated, but those who have the money and the drive can whip their kids into the bushibans. But then, places like Japan and Taiwan have such high stress from their über-competitiveness that huge numbers of people die from exhaustion caused by overwork or suicide. That might not be the best path to travel, either. Humans are not machines. The rah-rah capitalism people miss that as much as the religious oppressors do. It's no wonder they are on the same side.Paul SBnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-23647014523251705812017-10-26T04:25:59.719-07:002017-10-26T04:25:59.719-07:00The conservative (Mammonite?) revolution destabil... The conservative (Mammonite?) revolution destabilized much of the structure that used to support education, those that profited most from this are trying to distract us from the BFH in their hand. Just guessing that it's still early to fix schools right, we don't know how the debris will settle yet, as the breakage will continue until all hope of profit vanishes.<br /> The fans of privatization overlook the tendency of business folk to have the lowest expenses and limitless prices first, any fulfillment of expected service will be coincidental.Tim H.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-48512539846775226142017-10-26T01:02:59.134-07:002017-10-26T01:02:59.134-07:00re: the left/liberal divide, good article on Guard...re: the left/liberal divide, good article on Guardian (the Long Read in-depth stuff)<br /><br />https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/oct/26/the-liberal-left-divide-reshaping-american-politicsMarinonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-51186092094415007322017-10-25T22:05:27.042-07:002017-10-25T22:05:27.042-07:00Tony Fisk… please give a three sentence pitch for ...Tony Fisk… please give a three sentence pitch for folks to resume editing the Earth etc predictions site!<br /><br />It’s a community effort!<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-52457112037232462602017-10-25T19:34:33.271-07:002017-10-25T19:34:33.271-07:00Paul SB:
The market is kill-or-be-killed, which i...Paul SB:<br /><i><br />The market is kill-or-be-killed, which is hardly very inspiring. Psychologically the only people who thrive in that environment are the sociopaths who really do fit economists' rational man models. You know, like the Enron boys, that guy who jacked the price of a medicine up over 800% overnight, the people who are always lobbying for tax cuts for the rich. There's nothing like a system that puts sociopaths at the top!<br /></i><br /><br />Just today, radio host Norman Goldman was talking about the bill just passed which allows banks to include forced arbitration in their agreements. A free-marketer called up to man-splain to us all that what people should do is refuse to do business with any bank which has such a clause in its agreements, and then very quickly (the guy assured) some bank would advertise that it doesn't engage in that practice and pick up all of the business.<br /><br />It reminded me of the line attributed to Yogi Berra, "In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice, but in practice, there <b>is</b>."<br /><br />LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-80242399533822478422017-10-25T19:25:19.437-07:002017-10-25T19:25:19.437-07:00Alfred,
My point is not that charter schools can&...Alfred,<br /><br />My point is not that charter schools can't work, it's that they don't work, and they won't work any more than public schools do until people start to understand what is actually wrong with them. People are asking all the wrong questions, so it's no surprise that they are getting all the wrong answers. But because it is political, few people even se it. They just assume one side is right and other side is wrong - end of story. I'm all for experimentation. I'm a scientist by training, this should be a no-duh. <br /><br />But an even bigger no-duh is that while the capitalist faith claims to cause the best to evolve at the lowest prices, in actuality that rarely happens. Humans are not ants, or aardvarks, or howler monkeys. They don't follow Optimal Foraging Theory any more than those economic models that assume that humans always do what is in their best interest. I remember Larry saying he had read Dan Ariely's "Predictably Irrational" but I don't remember if you did. If you haven't, it's worth your time. If you have, read it again. It helps to explain why faith in the market is misplaced. I'm not saying faith in government is much better. But humans work very differently from the rest of the animal kingdom. Ecosystem- and evolutionary models are of limited value if you want to understand how humans operate. Paul SBnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-87670360917136378422017-10-25T19:24:41.166-07:002017-10-25T19:24:41.166-07:00@Alfred re: schools as businesses,
One reason I t...@Alfred re: schools as businesses,<br /><br />One reason I think some of us think government should be involved has little to do with government actually running the day-to-day activities of the schools. It has more to do with every child's access to education. If schools are businesses which go in and out of business, what happens to the kids whose schools disappear? And if schools are free to accept or reject individual kids for their own reasons, what happens to the kids who don't get accepted?LarryHartnoreply@blogger.com