tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post502195037533670177..comments2024-03-29T00:39:31.629-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: From AI to a changing planet... to UFOs?David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger70125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-82828079803457639922019-06-01T10:32:14.869-07:002019-06-01T10:32:14.869-07:00On the subject of UFO's, in researching for my...On the subject of UFO's, in researching for my novel (hard research) I recommend reading Paul R. Hill (A former Well-respected NASA scientist) "Unconventional Flying Objects" it was posthumously released by his daughter, as official NASA policy couldn't allow him to releasing. It is quite the compelling read, because it is a real scientific analysis. Intriguing. Warner Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13865181880328615225noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-55613186945730275472019-05-30T04:35:18.580-07:002019-05-30T04:35:18.580-07:00Dr Brin seems to have difficulty posting under pre...Dr Brin seems to have difficulty posting under previous posts while traveling, but he has moved...<br /><br />onward!Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-84347541113403900952019-05-29T20:46:16.019-07:002019-05-29T20:46:16.019-07:00This talk of certain people getting off on others&...This talk of certain people getting off on others' suffering leads nicely into a puzzle I've just come across (via BoingBoing, but I had fun rephrasing it).<br /><br />An orange cat has reason to be smug: it's just caught a poor house mouse in a circular pool of something that flows downhill. <br /><br />The mouse can run faster than the cat so, if can get to the edge before the cat can get round, it can escape, However,a little bird tells me that the cat is super athletic, and able to run four times faster than the mouse can swim.<br /><br />Things are looking more perilous than peachy for the rodent, but are they? Can the mouse escape?<br />Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-50648047171719967612019-05-29T20:26:02.729-07:002019-05-29T20:26:02.729-07:00Once? ~2000 years ago? 8)
Once? ~2000 years ago? 8)<br /><br />Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-83134076509091217162019-05-29T20:16:10.752-07:002019-05-29T20:16:10.752-07:00Alfred Differ:
To stop it, someone has to choose ...Alfred Differ:<br /><i><br />To stop it, someone has to choose to be the guy at the bottom taking it all and then cleaning up<br /></i><br /><br />Supposedly, it happened once.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-50602542070664465772019-05-29T17:54:38.726-07:002019-05-29T17:54:38.726-07:00Larry,
The suffering was the purpose.
Reminds ...Larry,<br /><br /><i> The suffering was the purpose. </i><br /><br />Reminds me of one of my uncles... who isn't with us anymore in case any of my cousins read this. 8)<br /><br />Suffering IS the purpose when you yourself are suffering some kind of oppression. (@#$@ flows downhill) Sapolsky laid out the behavioral evidence in that book one of our former regulars got me to read.<br /><br />Unfortunately, beating them up over it doesn't help. It gives them more reason to flow stuff downhill. To stop it, someone has to choose to be the guy at the bottom taking it all and then cleaning up. Our biology discourages this.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-64421272579118065622019-05-29T17:10:15.038-07:002019-05-29T17:10:15.038-07:00If I were an alien running UFO surveillance and st...If I were an alien running UFO surveillance and study of Earth, I'd be grabbing lots and lots of biological specimens and putting them in a deep freeze on a Kuiper Belt object.<br /><br />Sure beats scrabbling on the dirt for that one in a thousand fossil, from which you can never learn all you'd like to know.TCBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08153506222271955110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-71644879377552810072019-05-29T15:06:05.076-07:002019-05-29T15:06:05.076-07:00On the new hominid species discovery...
I had the...On the new hominid species discovery...<br /><br />I had the chance to study Human evolution under an unsung hero of anthropology in the early 90's. His main point was that there should be 16 to 32 undiscovered species of hominids to make the genetic "clocks" synchronize. So far, his prediction has been spot on.<br /><br />Another spanner in the works, he also made the point that preservation in the fossil record requires an absurd number of geological coincidences to actually happen. He and Gould's estimate was that we can observe 1/1000th of the ancient species that have lived upon this planet before us. Center for Desert Archaeologyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10632544160503692093noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-12775303814677740702019-05-29T14:02:57.903-07:002019-05-29T14:02:57.903-07:00My grandfather's preferred method for killing ...My grandfather's preferred method for killing squirrels was to shoot the tree limb just under their heads. The concussion would kill the squirrel but leave the brains intact, which he found a delicacy. If I needed to use an excessive round on a rabbit, I'd do something like that and aim at the ground maybe.TCBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08153506222271955110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-68326818848538563782019-05-29T13:50:11.126-07:002019-05-29T13:50:11.126-07:00TCB,
Try to shoot rabbit at 150 yards with a hand...TCB,<br /><br />Try to shoot rabbit at 150 yards with a handgun. Admittedly guns can do double service but in general armies do not equip their troops with 22LRs. If you use a military rifle to shoot a rabbit nothing would be left to eat but skin, a head and feet.Deuxglasshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488986307291616948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-54849519610877415802019-05-29T13:42:05.644-07:002019-05-29T13:42:05.644-07:00Deuxglass, if I HAD to go into combat with either ...Deuxglass, if I HAD to go into combat with either a small caliber rifle or a handgun, assuming the same rate of fire, I'd pick the rifle. I could engage accurately at a hundred yards instead of ten. At close quarters it becomes a club. Also, a .22LR round can take two opponents out of a fight: one with a round in his belly, and one busy dragging him back to an aid station.<br /><br />Just sayin'.TCBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08153506222271955110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-39327867941950153362019-05-29T12:49:54.877-07:002019-05-29T12:49:54.877-07:00Above in the thread I did say that I was for ‘roos...Above in the thread I did say that I was for ‘roos having the right to carry guns for self-defense. I was alluding to the first (and best) Crocodile Dundee film where he found a very good way to keep a group of city-dwelling Australians from plinking kangaroos for fun. I did not mean to generalize that into what I think of guns in general.<br /><br />My father made sure that I knew how to use a rifle and that had nothing to do with self-defense. He grew up during the Great Depression in a family of six kids and his father struggled to literally put food on the table. He had a small business and he wasn’t the worst off. Nevertheless meat was rare and the only way to get meat, especially in winter, was to find it yourself. He didn’t go for deer, there weren’t any left, so he went for rabbits and squirrels. He took his oldest sons with him. They used rifles to get “varmint” food and that was considered normal because in Ohio at the time getting food from the environment around you was what one did when you couldn't buy it at the store. It was the Pioneer heritage I guess you would call it. There was no stigma attached to it, in fact the opposite. When times are rough you go back to the basics. Owning a rifle was normal, however owning a handgun was not. Rifles were for obtaining food but handguns had only one use. Only lawmen and criminals carried handguns and if you were neither one nor the other then you were not exactly mainstream. Handguns are useless for getting small game. That was the attitude.<br /><br />My father taught me how to shoot a rifle at a young age so that if need be I could find meat in the woods and the fields. It had nothing to do with defending myself. Likewise kids my age there were taught woodcraft skills not because if some weird survivalist cult but because it was normal so us to know what to do if were lost in the woods. Looking back the training was quite extensive. We all were boy scouts and explorers and hung out in the woods most weekends. Consequently my feelings are that you can own a rifle for “just in case you need to get food” scenarios which implies that elephant guns are overkill but varmint rifles are just fine and useful and that handguns are only for those who kill others and should be controlled. You can kill someone with a small caliber rifle but it is much harder. I would like to keep the ability use them to get food if things get really bad (an eventually they will unless you can repeal history) so I would not ban them. Keep the handguns for the Texas Rangers and the criminals. Normal people don’t need them.<br />Deuxglasshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488986307291616948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-14318939930083046082019-05-29T12:30:00.370-07:002019-05-29T12:30:00.370-07:00Alfred Differ:
"The libs" are the new b...Alfred Differ:<br /><i><br />"The libs" are the new blacks. You are supposed to know your place. How dare you get uppity! Go live in your own neighborhood and be under-represented in Congress and in State legislatures!<br /><br />That's why it matters when "the libs" arm themselves too as our host occasionally points out.<br /></i><br /><br />Ok, but it's more than just a question of using guns to threaten to shoot uppity liberals.<br /><br />The very fact that liberals are upset when Trumpists act like monsters is reason enough for them <b>to</b> act like monsters. Not so much to make us back down, but just to make us feel bad. It's like <i>1984</i>'s vision of a nailed jackboot stamping on the upturned face of humanity. The purpose of inflicting suffering wasn't to get anyone to do anything. The suffering <b>was</b> the purpose.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-41512299824585469662019-05-29T12:23:31.088-07:002019-05-29T12:23:31.088-07:00Amen, sister.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/29/...Amen, sister.<br /><br />https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/29/opinion/i-thought-id-seen-the-worst-of-trump.html<br /><i><br />...<br />I thought about all the people who went into a voting booth in 2016 and chose the country we now live in. I’m talking now about you, my neighbors and my friends. When you decided you wanted to make America great again, was this the country you had in mind?<br /><br />We live in a country that puts endangered immigrant children in jail. Six children have died in United States custody in eight months. Was it for this that you voted for Donald Trump?<br /><br />We live in a country with a national debt of $22 trillion and growing. We’re this deep in debt not because we’ve invested in our roads and bridges, or increased the salaries of teachers, or invested in scientific research, or worked to save the environment, or brought back middle-class jobs, but because we’ve given an enormous tax break to the wealthiest people in the country, plain and simple. Was it for this that you voted for Donald Trump?<br /><br />We live in a country in which white supremacists march with torches, in which the president mocks the disabled, advocates violence and calls the press the enemy of the people. Was it for this that you voted for Donald Trump?<br /><br />We live in a country in which the most desperate of people are pushed further to the margins. O.K., so you’re not transgender, and perhaps you don’t really care about trans people. Even so, do you really want people like me to be turned away from homeless shelters? Seriously, homeless shelters? Was it for this that you voted for Donald Trump?<br /><br />That’s why I wept. It’s not that he has created this nightmare. It’s that so many people — including ones I love — think it’s all just fine.<br /><br />...<br /></i><br /><br />Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-74620043113541629252019-05-29T11:53:59.941-07:002019-05-29T11:53:59.941-07:00Larry,
I think it also has a lot to do with &quo...Larry,<br /><br /><i> I think it also has a lot to do with "owning the libs" </i><br /><br />That's exactly where I was going. "The libs" are the new blacks. You are supposed to know your place. How dare you get uppity! Go live in your own neighborhood and be under-represented in Congress and in State legislatures!<br /><br />That's why it matters when "the libs" arm themselves too as our host occasionally points out.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-7441949850670796512019-05-29T10:38:25.009-07:002019-05-29T10:38:25.009-07:00Darrell E:
Sure, some percentage of thieves can g...Darrell E:<br /><i><br />Sure, some percentage of thieves can get through a locked door but many thieves will be deterred. <br /></i><br /><br />Even among those who aren't deterred from thievery, most will find an <b>unlocked</b> door somewhere else rather than spend the time on a locked door.<br /><br />At a former workplace of mine, there were several areas where heavy doors or architectural barriers made it difficult though not impossible for <b>legitimate</b> occupants to get to, whereas the determined wrongdoer would not have been prevented from access. It seemed to me exactly the wrong mix of difficulty for the good guy and ease for the bad guy.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-24118407239137722282019-05-29T10:30:37.342-07:002019-05-29T10:30:37.342-07:00Just looking for some clarification. Is the long t...Just looking for some clarification. Is the long time taken by chloroplasts and mitochondria to establish symbiotic forms due to the statistical unlikeliness of it, or some other impediment? Some have suggested that many millions, or even billions of years <b>are</b> required for this step. If it is driven by a strong evolutionary gradient (as Margulis suggested), the statistical argument seems iffy. If it was due to a deficiency in Earth's environment, why assume that that deficiency is universal?<br /><br />It's usually at this point that the 'well, where are they then?' argument is triggered. I don't see that logic as compelling. Too many assumptions and implicit mechanisms get fired up on the sidelines. One thing at a time. Analysis should 'trump' distraction.scidatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07152319593457629592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-67337035611858235172019-05-29T06:51:21.724-07:002019-05-29T06:51:21.724-07:00Jon S,
Yes, it is like saying "A thief can g...Jon S,<br /><br />Yes, it is like saying "A thief can get through a locked door so there's no sense in putting locks on doors." Most people can see the fallacy in that kind of argument when it involves something that doesn't trigger an ideological prior commitment. Sure, some percentage of thieves can get through a locked door but many thieves will be deterred. Reality is about percentages and probabilities not absolutes.Darrell Ehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14054311762477388637noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-31882092996190075722019-05-29T06:06:10.284-07:002019-05-29T06:06:10.284-07:00"The problem with guns as mass slaughter weap...<i>"The problem with guns as mass slaughter weapons would be helped if the number of shots before re-loading was restricted<br /><br />I said this on Quora and somebody came back showing an expert re-loading in seconds"</i><br /><br />And I say to that person the same thing I say to my roommate when he goes on about how banning machine guns is "pointless" because of how "easy" it is to modify many semiautomatic weapons to fire full auto - sure, it's "easy" for the <i>expert</i>. And the sort of expert who can reload in seconds while maintaining targeting, or who knows what parts to modify in a machine shop to turn an AR-15 into an M-16, is generally (<b>generally</b>) not the sort of person we're worried about going on a rampage.<br /><br />Limiting magazine capacity for semi-automatics, however, will ensure that the <i>typical</i> rampage shooter has to stop to reload every five or ten rounds. (And if you're hunting and need more than five rounds before reloading - stop. Leave the field. Get to a range and <i>practice</i>, because even dropping an elk shouldn't require more than two or three shots, and if you need more it's because your aim is bad.)Jon S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13585842845661267920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-73712413394293523722019-05-29T05:29:01.013-07:002019-05-29T05:29:01.013-07:00TCB said...
"Re: the jump to eukaryotic life,...TCB said...<br /><i>"Re: the jump to eukaryotic life, yes, that IS a big one. It took 2 billion years or more for the earliest prokaryotes to evolve a branch of eukaryotes. It seems possible, to me, that multicellular aliens could evolve from what we would call prokaryotes, though it did not happen here. The fact that it took that long matters a LOT, however. There must be a high percentage of planets where life would have evolved to a sophont status but it ran out of time, because its sun left the main sequence, the planet left a stable orbit, etc.etc. Who can say what would have evolved on Mars, had it stayed livable as long as Earth has?"</i><br /><br />I think it is important when speculating on these issues to keep in mind the very large problem we have. We've only got data on one example. We basically have no idea if the benchmark events in the history of life on Earth happened quickly or slowly compared to a universal norm or what may be possible.<br /><br />There are many arguments of the sort that complex life, or intelligent life, must be rare because of all the rare events in the history of life on Earth. These arguments all seem like glaring fallacies to me. All we can say about the history of life on Earth is that it happened and if it hadn't played out as it did then <i>we</i> probably wouldn't be here. That doesn't mean that something else wouldn't be.Darrell Ehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14054311762477388637noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-3827699118568800602019-05-29T04:50:06.324-07:002019-05-29T04:50:06.324-07:00Alfred Differ:
The gun today is more like the noo...Alfred Differ:<br /><i><br />The gun today is more like the noose of yesterday. I can think of many uses of guns, but a noose carried a socially symbolic meaning. "Know your place." <br /><br />Is the modern NRA advocating guns... or nooses?<br /></i><br /><br />That is a part of it--no question--but it's not that simple.<br /><br />Yes, there has always been a white supremacist aspect of the Second Amendment, beginning with its origins as an enabler of southern slave patrols. Throughout the colonial age, white Europeans required firepower to overcome a disadvantage in numbers in the lands they occupied. The dynamic continues on today, in which the NRA is notably silent about the need for self-defense when a black man is shot by police or vigilantes. No one makes the case that if Treyvon Martin had a gun, he might be alive today. The right to bear arms, let alone to use them to hold off law enforcement officials, seems to be reserved for whites only.<br /><br />But there's more to the in-your-face gun culture than simple racism. I think it also has a lot to do with "owning the libs"--the same sort of attitude which revels in "rolling coal" or "Drill, baby, drill!" or taking pleasure in the extinction of species. Anything that makes liberals feel bad is s positive for those people, and the more it throws its macho violent weight around, the better. Running over protestors and killing them. Oil spills and fires. Destruction of forests. These are not mere collateral damage as the cost of doing business to these people--the harm is the appeal.<br /><br />In that milieu, standing up for the right to own bump-stocks and automatic weapons makes perfect sense, as does a fundraiser at which an AR-15 is given away as a prize.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-84761582807785028362019-05-28T21:34:50.911-07:002019-05-28T21:34:50.911-07:00Hi Sociotard
The new NZ rules permit small calibe...Hi Sociotard<br /><br />The new NZ rules permit small caliber "varmint rifles"duncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-47267468640142642422019-05-28T20:23:13.638-07:002019-05-28T20:23:13.638-07:00Even with the surge in spree shootings, the risk f...Even with the surge in spree shootings, the risk from rifles is tiny compared to handguns. You are more likely to be murdered with a blunt object than a rifle, and handguns far exceed blunt objects.<br /><br />I will agree that magazine limitations are good and useful, even if it rules out some varmint rifles.Sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16789886526414379467noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-57401370570039342132019-05-28T18:59:29.393-07:002019-05-28T18:59:29.393-07:00Re-Guns
The problem with guns as mass slaughter w...Re-Guns<br /><br />The problem with guns as mass slaughter weapons would be helped if the number of shots before re-loading was restricted<br /><br />I said this on Quora and somebody came back showing an expert re-loading in seconds<br /><br />But the Australian experience - reducing mass shootings from one/year to one/20 years - I believe shows that the individuals who do the mass shooting are not usually the competent ones who can train themselves up <br /><br />So preventing the "easy" way of mass slaughter may well have a good effect even if an expert can get around the fixes duncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-64720838514289263372019-05-28T18:57:55.989-07:002019-05-28T18:57:55.989-07:00Re: the jump to eukaryotic life, yes, that IS a bi...Re: the jump to eukaryotic life, yes, that IS a big one. It took 2 billion years or more for the earliest prokaryotes to evolve a branch of eukaryotes. It seems possible, to me, that multicellular aliens could evolve from what we would call prokaryotes, though it did not happen here. The fact that it took that long matters a LOT, however. There must be a high percentage of planets where life would have evolved to a sophont status but it ran out of time, because its sun left the main sequence, the planet left a stable orbit, etc.etc. Who can say what would have evolved on Mars, had it stayed livable as long as Earth has?<br /><br />Even assuming sentient races, there are (it seems to me) many reasons why they might be unable to develop technology like ours. For a start, here on Earth there are creatures who may be a smart as we are, but they live in the ocean. You can't smelt metal nor build electronics under water.<br /><br />And suppose the Carboniferous hadn't gone as it did. There may be many inhabited planets with land-based sophont tool-using beings who do not have any significant amount of fossil fuel to work with. We do, because trees existed for some 40 million years before fungi could digest and rot them. The wood piled up and didn't rot, and that's where most of our coal, oil and natural gas comes from.<br /><br />Hell, we might be better off had we NOT had them...<br /><br />And I'd like to mention, in passing, that there was a way for humans to burn all available fossil fuels without buggering up the climate. It might not have been a good idea to use it all; saving something for later is usually a good plan; our descendants might have needed that coal in ten thousand years, for some better purpose. Nevertheless, we <i>could</i> have burned it all, and not harmed the climate much...<br /><br />if we just stretched it out over a longer time! And cut down fewer trees in the mean time. The kick to our greenhouse is severe because it is so sudden. A metaphor:<br /><br />Suppose I buy a case of cheap bourbon whiskey. (I never do this, had to google how much that is). A dozen bottles of booze at 750 ml each. Okay. Me, I put it in my coffee, usually. A case would last me a year or more.<br /><br />Could I drink it all in a weekend? Good god, no. I would get very sick. Die, perhaps. My liver cannot process alcohol that fast. Over an entire year? Sure. No problemo.<br /><br />And so it is with natural carbon sinks. <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/carbon-dioxide-climate-change-fossil-fuels-906953" rel="nofollow">Most of the human race's CO2 emissions have happened during YOUR lifetime if you are over about 40 years old!</a><br /><br />Jesus <i>fucking</i> christ. That's like taking my case of whiskey and drinking it while also getting it as an enema and two IV's straight into my arms. Of course we're in trouble. What would you expect?<br /><br />But maybe we wouldn't develop space flight without that resource... maybe the Fermi paradox is largely explainable by A) a minority of planets will evolve sophonts to begin with and B) those that do won't have all the energy sources (and metal ores, etc.) to develop advanced technology and C) holy cow, they will probably kill themselves if they DO get all that power.<br /><br />Sigh.TCBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08153506222271955110noreply@blogger.com