tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post470663549615399908..comments2024-03-29T00:39:31.629-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: How the American education system doesn’t failDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger56125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-37627013997519232532015-04-20T20:40:09.187-07:002015-04-20T20:40:09.187-07:00Whatever you may think of Adam Savage, I think he&...Whatever you may think of Adam Savage, I think he's right on he mark when he advocates for adding an 'A' for art to STEM, making it STEAM.Joehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05859251362066089980noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-87201584146852663082015-04-02T12:06:52.870-07:002015-04-02T12:06:52.870-07:00Yah. I have to agree.
I got to be a judge in a c...Yah. I have to agree. <br /><br />I got to be a judge in a county science fair yesterday and got to say much the same to a junior high kid who was ready to hear it. His two data runs were very close together. He correctly recognized there wasn't much of a distinction, thus his hypothesis was only partially tested. I tried to point him in the right direction without making 'error' bands imply that he had made an error.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-26709862281196193982015-04-02T02:21:41.932-07:002015-04-02T02:21:41.932-07:00Hi Alfred
As well as statistics kids should know t...Hi Alfred<br />As well as statistics kids should know that all numbers (outside of pure mathematics) are "fuzzy"<br />I was one of the first cohort to use calculators at uni<br />One of my professors gave us a problem<br />If you stuck the numbers into a calculator you got something like<br />8.67657<br />He marked us all as WRONG<br />With the data at one significant figure the answer could only have one significant figure at most<br />He would accept 9 or at a stretch 8.7<br />as answers<br /><br />He was absolutely correct I don't know how often I have seen problems caused by this<br /><br />Example<br />The marketing goons are forecasting<br />About 40,000 pumps<br />about - 25% will be 4 cylinder<br />of those - 25% will be...<br /><br />This comes down to a forecast that we will need 5,643 of one type of drive shaft!<br /><br />The poor bugger who get that forecast thinks that that is how many we will need!<br />When what it actually means is between 3000 and 7000<br /><br />We all need to understand the limits of our numbers<br />Error bands are great for this<br /><br />Duncan Cairncrossnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-28299896308624656972015-04-01T20:43:10.654-07:002015-04-01T20:43:10.654-07:00One way to fold Reality in is to remember that Mat...One way to fold Reality in is to remember that Math includes Statistics. If you get out of a US high school without that, someone has done you a disservice.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-11548887077544666822015-04-01T17:43:15.498-07:002015-04-01T17:43:15.498-07:00I dropped out of college twice before joining the ...I dropped out of college twice before joining the Army. Later I finished and became a science teacher. STEM was becoming a big word on campus then, but I always worried about the lack of philosophical and art experience for kids - notably my own kids weren't math-kinds-of-kids, but liked art. I briefly toyed with the idea of STEAM - dropping in a little Art with the STEM. These days I think every class needs a class pet, a HAMSTER:<br />Humanities<br />Arts<br />Math<br />Science<br />Technology<br />Ethics<br />Reality*<br />*actually, I'm still a bit lost on the R, but I find my students have a demonstrated lack of respect for reality.<br />The doom and gloom of the YA FIC part of the library is definitely having an impact, and the cheap copies of crap coming out of Hollywood lately are uninspiring.<br />But ultimately I think I am a bad fit for teaching. I do not think the current system is really benefiting the kids' futures, and I don;t support the status quo and always find myself at odds with the system in general. I am going to miss it.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04212819307747599081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-11651374720281935082015-04-01T15:39:51.954-07:002015-04-01T15:39:51.954-07:00@Duncan - in the spirit of this quote from Star Tr...@Duncan - in the spirit of this quote from Star Trek IV <i><b>McCoy:</b> "No, Spock. He means that he feels safer about your guesses than most other people's facts. "</i><br /><br />"I feel surer of engineering rules of thumb than financial calculations." Alex Tolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01556422553154817988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-57939714835158756322015-04-01T13:28:01.096-07:002015-04-01T13:28:01.096-07:00I agree that finace is a bit murky and that there ...I agree that finace is a bit murky and that there are very broad error bands around things like NPV<br /><br />One of the Engineering Institutes leaders once said<br /><br />Engineering is the art of using materials whose properties we cannot predict to resist forces that we don't understand in such a way that our ignorance is not obvious<br />Duncan Cairncrossnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-16834912709907345592015-04-01T11:49:12.132-07:002015-04-01T11:49:12.132-07:00onwardonwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-18423791809396673622015-04-01T09:53:17.821-07:002015-04-01T09:53:17.821-07:00showing how some of the assumptions behind a lot o...<i>showing how some of the assumptions behind a lot of the tools we use are a little crazy.</i><br /><br />I agree. Sometimes they appear to be crutches based on very little actual information. (Economists often seem to do something rather similar). Finance works best when conditions are well known and there are a lot of constraints on the values to reduce uncertainly. However even here it all fails at the macro level. e.g. the portfolio insurance induced 1987 stock market crash and the more recent 2008 financial collapse due to the edifice based on MBS with faulty ratings. <br /><br />Math and numbers often offer a false sense of purity, certainty and security that is belied by reality. <br /><br />Undergraduate finance courses (even MBA courses) focus on the tools (which is hard enough), and far too little on critiques of those tools. I'd like to see more time apportioned to projects that illuminate where the tools go wrong and how to recognize those situations. <br /><br />Alex Tolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01556422553154817988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-18985616961679541832015-04-01T09:37:51.069-07:002015-04-01T09:37:51.069-07:00"Why are you even thinking IRR though? DCF to..."Why are you even thinking IRR though? DCF to NPV should be the best approach. If still using IRR, at least use MIRR to avoid the pitfalls of IRR."<br /><br />Oh, totally agree. I never saw IRR or MIRR as really useful tools compared to an NPV analysis.<br /><br />"As we know, there is still a lot of sticking fingers in the air to guess values for the cash flows, and fudging of appropriate discount rates that don't reflect project risk. All this results in very fuzzy estimates unless it is done in a disciplined way.<br /><br /> Having said this, how many small/startup tech companies even talk in those terms?"<br /><br />Finance is a very fuzzy business as it's all about the management of future risks; the tools we have are better than nothing, but they're still all nonsense to some extent. I recently read Peter Thiel's book, Zero to One, and he pointed out some of the absurdities of the financial field in there and I wish he'd gone in a little deeper, showing how some of the assumptions behind a lot of the tools we use are a little crazy. I noticed this in business school as well.<br />Nicholas MacDonald-Wuhttp://www.nicholasmacdonald.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-59798206269714990252015-04-01T09:17:11.895-07:002015-04-01T09:17:11.895-07:00The finance MBA rolls a DCF, checks the IRR, and t...<i>The finance MBA rolls a DCF, checks the IRR, and then prices an options spread to manage the risk. The strategy MBA pulls out his tarot deck. :)</i><br /><br />LOL. I like that comment. <br /><br />Why are you even thinking IRR though? DCF to NPV should be the best approach. If still using IRR, at least use MIRR to avoid the pitfalls of IRR.<br /><br />As we know, there is still a lot of sticking fingers in the air to guess values for the cash flows, and fudging of appropriate discount rates that don't reflect project risk. All this results in very fuzzy estimates unless it is done in a disciplined way.<br /><br />Having said this, how many small/startup tech companies even talk in those terms? Alex Tolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01556422553154817988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-76158516321752445672015-04-01T09:05:14.568-07:002015-04-01T09:05:14.568-07:00@raito - I think your comment on education shows t...@raito - I think your comment on education shows that different people are at different level's on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs. Those that want education to deliver some tangible skills for employment are lower on the triangle to those, like yourself, who see it as offering something different. Business owners also want skills education apparently, to acquire plug and play employee drones.<br /><br />In some ways this was the aim of the traditional UK education that separated children at 11. By 16 you had cohorts of factory ready young adults as well as a small clique of university ready people.<br /><br />The US model seems to aspire more towards the ideal of a broader education with later specialization. Unfortunately, attitudes about what education is for, who benefits and who pays are driving the system to be evaluated on ROI for the individual. As those who know about NPV and discount rates, the higher uncertainly of a more general education increases the discount rate and therefore lowers the NPV of education, not to mention increasing the fraction of -ve returns. I think this is a worrying trend that needs an urgent fix.Alex Tolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01556422553154817988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-48496499907392554912015-04-01T08:57:16.480-07:002015-04-01T08:57:16.480-07:00Here's the problem:
Corporate America decided...Here's the problem:<br /><br />Corporate America decided to outsource much of their training to the university system. Increasingly, having a degree in a technical subject (or business, accounting or finance) is all that they ask for in entry-level candidates; while some jobs still simply want a holder to have a "four year degree" of any sort, those are quickly vanishing.<br /><br />If we look at a lot of the autodidacts mentioned earlier on the thread, many of them weren't all that autodidactical (Bill Gates had the best formal education money could buy up through the age of 20, including access to a mainframe computer in the 1970s!), but what many of them had in common was on-the-job training and mentorship- something that is increasingly hard to get.<br /><br />And it's really bad if you're trying to change careers in your thirties. Even with a finance MBA, I've found it very difficult to find work where I can get properly trained and licensed. Very difficult- as in, a year and a half after graduation, I'm still working temp jobs as a receptionist and knocking on doors, looking for a firm that will take me on...<br /><br />"An MBA would probably use...<br />I don't know?<br />Cutting open a sheep and looking at its entrails?"<br /><br />That's how you know the difference between someone with a strategy MBA and someone with a finance MBA. The finance MBA rolls a DCF, checks the IRR, and then prices an options spread to manage the risk. The strategy MBA pulls out his tarot deck. :)<br /><br />Nicholas MacDonald-Wuhttp://www.nicholasmacdonald.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-43204977947470133672015-04-01T08:18:49.609-07:002015-04-01T08:18:49.609-07:00I'm a bit amused at that course list for an ME...I'm a bit amused at that course list for an ME degree. For my EE, statistics, speech, and foreign language were also required.<br /><br />I did score perfectly on that science knowledge test. I might have been able to do as well in fourth grade, except that fracking wasn't around then.<br /><br />But there is definitely something to the idea that there are forces that want us to specialize in our education like insects.<br /><br />I was accepted as one of the outside advisers for the local school district's long range planning committee. And the issue of what education is for came up time and again.The most prevalent, perniciously corrosive attitude was that school should turn out 'good workers', and 'ready for the future'. I'll also note that this attitude was most prevalent in those who self-identified with being 'economically disadvantaged'.<br /><br />As a slight aside, it's faintly humorous being told by a 350-lb., 5 foot tall woman how horrible it is being poor. I asked in all seriousness if she'd ever missed a meal. She said she hadn't. I pointed out that when I was 18 I was nearly homeless and eating from a food pantry (but I did help make deliveries, because I was physically able). She was at least then able to appreciate that whatever my present circumstances, I was indeed able to understand poverty.<br /><br />But back to the other subject. Whenever someone said that we should train good workers, I countered that I'd prefer school to teach my children to think, because that would make them the best workers, and further pointed out that I'd rpefer my children to be people who hired workers rather than workers themselves.<br /><br />And when they said they want children ready for the future, I said I wanted my children to create the future and not be held hostage to it.<br /><br />Those with the other viewpoints looked confused. The apparently had never considered that those things were possible. On the other hand, several teachers came to me after the meetings and thanked me for voicing those views.raitonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-43673130683128637982015-04-01T07:11:38.887-07:002015-04-01T07:11:38.887-07:00I learned about NPV and expected NPV from a mining...I learned about NPV and expected NPV from a mining engineer who had to figure out how to get his projects financed. He had to learn the language and he did it in grad school.<br /><br /><br />STEM People who get through the US system without the breadth requirements fulfilled (like me in some ways) are at a disadvantage here. We don't know our own history, but might think we do. The Dunning-Kruger effect comes into play quickly. <br /><br />I still remember reading for the first time that the evolution concept doesn't come from biology. It can be found earlier in economics. When I was younger I thought science was the alpha and omega of all. Pfft. Unfortunately, I DID treat my STEM education as a zero-sum game, so it came at the expense of breadth. I had to make up for that on my own later.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-76189710143086390822015-03-31T22:17:11.522-07:002015-03-31T22:17:11.522-07:00Heh. Despite attending several years of an engine...Heh. Despite attending several years of an engineering college:<br />*I learned how to sweat pipes together (solder copper) in a jewelrymaking class.<br />*I was horrified when my Industrial Design classes failed to take into account whether or not the design could be easily manufactured with then-standard processes (by now, with 3D prototyping and CAD/CAM, a lot of stuff that was impossible 20 years ago can probably be whipped up simply).<br />*I was the only one who had any idea what a 'presentation storyboard' looked like, thanks to extensive fine art classes and lots of reading. This was pre-PowerPoint.<br />*One of the best pieces of advice I ever got was from a senior engineer, who told me, "If you want to make sure your projects fly, make friends with the guys in the machine shop, plumbers, welders, carpenters. They have years of experience and their knowledge and backing is invaluable." Most of them could eyeball a project and produce a parts list or prototype; it was almost black magic.<br />A working technological society requires a blend of both arts and sciences.<br /><br />BTW, I heard the term 'boffin' less than 6 months ago in a TV show. <i>Marvel's Agents of Shield</i> used it to refer to their resident scientists, Fitz and Simmons.<br /><br />TheMadLibrarianTheMadLibrariannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-4857886249385194472015-03-31T21:24:48.057-07:002015-03-31T21:24:48.057-07:00When it comes to persuasion, I recall the words of...When it comes to <i>persuasion</i>, I recall the words of a Con Law prof, roughly:<br /><br />"1. All successful legal arguments have the same conclusion: 'My client wins'. <br /><br />2. Your task is to make that conclusion follow logically from the relevant FACTS as applied to the relevant RULES. <br /><br />3. Such combinations of facts and rules that would lead to a different conclusion must be dismissed as irrelevant, using a sub-argument in the same form as above."<br /><br />It's a remarkably flexible and vexingly effective method, whether you are arguing politics or money. I lack the knowledge to tell whether this would apply to engineering, except to the extent that choice of engineering project may be a matter of politics or money.rewinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14008105385364113371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-61224112747692313712015-03-31T19:38:43.699-07:002015-03-31T19:38:43.699-07:00"An engineer would use NPV
Where/when would t..."An engineer would use NPV<br />Where/when would they learn financial concepts?"<br /><br />I learned how to use things like NPV on the first major project I initiated<br />I had already been introduced to the concepts - but like all tools you only learn how to use them when you actually need to use them<br /><br />How can you lead any project above the petty cash level without understanding the financials?<br /><br />I suppose I should not be too scathing about MBA's as I have a DMS (Diploma in Management Studies - sort of a 1/2 MBA)Duncan Cairncrossnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-37666020863658434112015-03-31T18:40:24.549-07:002015-03-31T18:40:24.549-07:00I have known a fair amount of people in the scient...I have known a fair amount of people in the scientifically educated fields and notice it's sort of funny how few of them refer to themselves or are described as by people who come in contact with them,"scientists." IBM did have that for some as an official title but I found that the exception.<br />I even suspect that when the public refers to "scientists" some of the people listening who do qualify, half-consciously don't consider themselves included in the group being discussed.<br />It's not on too many resumes is it?Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-85533272115870874762015-03-31T17:58:26.773-07:002015-03-31T17:58:26.773-07:00An engineer would use NPV
Where/when would they l...<i>An engineer would use NPV</i><br /><br />Where/when would they learn financial concepts?<br /><br /><i>I'm less convinced that there is a real difference between technical and non technical persuasion</i><br /><br />I see it as a sliding scale of degree. Scientists stay more to the technical end where they are more comfortable. They tend to use facts as a support. Non-technical people tend to focus their persuasive efforts using other techniques, e.g. rhetoric.<br />Obviously an oversimplification, but with a grain of truth based on my experience.<br /><br /><i>I am extremely cynical about MBA's - it's a good qualification for an engineer with a few years experience but a stand alone MBA is pretty useless</i><br /><br />Back when I did my MBA, the B-school had a policy of having 1/2 the cohort with business experience and 1/2 straight from their bachelor's degree. Alex Tolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01556422553154817988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-74663503957697525472015-03-31T17:07:38.024-07:002015-03-31T17:07:38.024-07:00Hi Alex
Scientists - making decisions
When Scienti...Hi Alex<br />Scientists - making decisions<br />When Scientists are presenting a proposal they should use "finance" simply as a method of comparing proposals<br />Cost and benefit are universal<br />using financial "guesses" <br />(and that's all engineers use)<br />Is simply a mechanism so that different ideas can be compared<br /><br />When its all done and dusted money is simply a way of comparing apples and oranges<br />Duncan Cairncrossnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-35959508706630544382015-03-31T17:01:29.050-07:002015-03-31T17:01:29.050-07:00Hi Alex
An engineer would use NPV -
An MBA would p...Hi Alex<br />An engineer would use NPV -<br />An MBA would probably use...<br />I don't know? <br />Cutting open a sheep and looking at its entrails?<br /><br />I am extremely cynical about MBA's - it's a good qualification for an engineer with a few years experience but a stand alone MBA is pretty useless<br /><br />I'm less convinced that there is a real difference between technical and non technical persuasion<br />The man/woman you are persuading (1) May not be that "technical"<br />(The route to the top in rarely technical)<br />(2) Puts his/her jacket on and turns into an ordinary person after work - so persuasion that works on an "ordinary person" should work on him/herDuncan Cairncrossnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-14980010567653961372015-03-31T16:24:14.662-07:002015-03-31T16:24:14.662-07:00Note that financial, engineering and scientific pe...Note that financial, engineering and scientific persuasion is technocratic. This is very different from other approaches to persuasion - e.g. political or legal which use different skills.Alex Tolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01556422553154817988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-58481975562801498262015-03-31T15:45:38.655-07:002015-03-31T15:45:38.655-07:00@Duncan - An MBA would do a net present value calc...@Duncan - An MBA would do a net present value calculation for the options to show +ve value for the improvements. This may or may not involve technical expertise to support the desired approach as being feasible, or doable within a time frame which supports the risk assessment and value.<br /><br />In my experience scientists tend to be involved in selecting the best approach to a scientific issue using experimental data. For example, we should select these genes for out signature device, or perhaps, these data show that the best protocol... What they do not do is get involved in business decisions. When they do, it is usually based more on non-financial factors.<br /><br /><br /><br />Alex Tolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01556422553154817988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-85636279203076086312015-03-31T15:36:06.728-07:002015-03-31T15:36:06.728-07:00Hi Alex
I was trained in writing to persuade based...Hi Alex<br />I was trained in writing to persuade based mostly on "improvement projects" <br />You normally have a series of options - starting with - Do Nothing and going through the options<br />As the guy wanting the improvements you will have your favorite and will be trying to persuade the money men to give the go ahead<br /><br />I would have thought that scientists would have been working on the same lines?<br /><br />Support MY research because...Duncan Cairncrossnoreply@blogger.com