tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post4582799223084823588..comments2024-03-27T23:12:08.917-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Science marches on.... mostly good medical news.David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger60125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-14445211357494090752016-11-29T02:27:06.605-08:002016-11-29T02:27:06.605-08:00Why did the Romans produce no great mathematicians...Why did the Romans produce no great mathematicians, but produced excellent doctors? Why did the antikythera mechanism not survive, except in a sunken ship? The two questions have the same answer and are worth asking. Especially right now.Paul Revilenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-25953094742751824062016-11-27T05:09:19.179-08:002016-11-27T05:09:19.179-08:00Me:
"Reviewers comment:
You need to drill dow...Me:<br /><i>"Reviewers comment:<br />You need to drill down to separate "Vampires as an infection" (like the recent series The Strain), from "Vampires as privileged immortals". The former is clearly closer to zombies. The thesis, otoh, requires the latter, vampires as a proxy for the powerful."</i><br /><br />Catfish N. Cod said...<br /><i>Paul451: that would take curation, as the IMDB keyword curation does not easily break down along the lines you state. [...] If Dr. Brin or anyone on this page wants to co-author a paper along these lines that could be put on a CV, say so and I'll contact you privately."</i><br /><br />Errr, I actually thought I was joking.Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-59159602871371257772016-11-26T14:58:11.026-08:002016-11-26T14:58:11.026-08:00Hi Catfish
2000 titles - why not simply manually s...Hi Catfish<br />2000 titles - why not simply manually select them? wouldn't take very long - couple of hoursduncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-16233626739315957532016-11-26T12:36:42.894-08:002016-11-26T12:36:42.894-08:00onward
onward
onward<br /><br />onward<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-74934048593036302302016-11-26T11:57:50.515-08:002016-11-26T11:57:50.515-08:00Catfish n’ Cod… great fun! I stand admonished! Wh...Catfish n’ Cod… great fun! I stand admonished! While my general impression’s truthiness stands confirmed overall, its statistical reliability correlating with party administrations kind of… er… sucks.<br /><br />Your Siberian reassurance does not work if the South CHina Sea gambit is meant as a distraction away from northward drives already underway.<br /><br />Smurphs, your scenario is scary - The most plausible prediction is that Putin will bolster his friend by rapidly negotiating a deal in Syria, in order to cement Trump’s “art of the deal” mastery. Perhaps “federating” the state, locking Assad’s grip on the country’s western third - the valuable bits - and letting go of the rest. This would make Trump look strong while giving the Russians everything they truly want. Trump is then liberated to eviscerate NATO, which is Putin’s central goal. This could be very bad news for Estonia and the other Baltic States. If NATO is no longer drawing a hard red line before them, then Russian speaking populations could serve as an intervention lure/excuse, as others were in the Donbas.<br /><br />Of course, if this led to actual herm to Estonia, then it could embolden some House members toward impeachment. <br /><br />I respect how you create a scenario and then give it odds, instead of just declaring it. That’s what I do, too.<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-79993334470183206382016-11-26T11:00:27.209-08:002016-11-26T11:00:27.209-08:00Paul451: that would take curation, as the IMDB key...Paul451: that would take curation, as the IMDB keyword curation does not easily break down along the lines you state. Curating over 2000 titles would require me to write actual code to parse IMDB pages. If Dr. Brin or anyone on this page wants to co-author a paper along these lines that could be put on a CV, say so and I'll contact you privately.<br /><br />To Gracious Host and Smurphs: of course Putin knows China wants to eat Siberia. But one enemy at a time, and for now the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is to his benefit. NATO scares him more than the Mandarins, who right now want to expand their power south. Until we cease to be a threat, tussling over Eurasia isn't worth it. Far scarier to Putin is the fact that Russia's defense has always depended on General Winter, and General Winter may be sick and dying.Catfish N. Codnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-71768573828156637532016-11-26T10:36:15.531-08:002016-11-26T10:36:15.531-08:00Jumper asked, "How is Russia responsible for ...Jumper asked, "How is Russia responsible for large numbers of refugees?"<br />In Syria, by dropping lots of bombs. Elsewhere, not so much. <br />Even the hawkish Tom Friedmann, no friend of Putin's, admits the majority of refugees are created by climate change. In fact, he now vociferously advocates for addressing climate change as being the only way to avoid a far vaster refugee crisis, and I'm of the opinion he's right. <br />Smurphs: I'm getting the impression that Putin is backing away from Trump. That seems counterintuitive, and it could well be just an effort by Putin to muddy the waters, but if so, is the thinned-skin Donald bright enough to figure that out and not react like a jilted 13-year-old?Zepp Jamiesonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16261339498383415026noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-38484527604438860652016-11-26T10:12:15.578-08:002016-11-26T10:12:15.578-08:00How is Russia responsible for large numbers of ref...How is Russia responsible for large numbers of refugees?Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-86013359273502832052016-11-26T08:36:06.976-08:002016-11-26T08:36:06.976-08:00From our host, in the last post:
Putin sees the ...From our host, in the last post:<br /><br /><br /><i>Putin sees the melted Arctic as the best thing ever for Russia... unaware that the entire eastern half of his nation is in the sights of his southern neighbor.</i><br /><br /><br />I highly doubt Putin is unaware of this, but is smart enough to realize:<br /><br />1. China is doing just fine by economically and culturally dominating Western Russia, playing the long game is in their interest. They certainly don't want a war right now. <br />2. Western Russia & Siberia are pretty much indefensible without a huge military build-up or nukes;<br />3. Nuclear deterrence (MAD) is working just fine right now, for both sides;<br />4. There IS a lot of economic/cultural/political conflict going on, but we in The West don't hear about it much. Our news sources are very myopic. <br />5. Putin does not need the distraction right now, he is only a year or two away from achieving is greatest Russian foreign policy victory since defeating Germany, breaking NATO. <br /><br /><br />If I was Putin right now, this what I would do: <br /><br /><br />"Work" with his new friend in America on Syria, following Trump's leadership on some policy changes, giving Trump a victory. Hell, maybe even helping achieve some real peace and relief to the region. <br /><br /><br />Next, bow to some Western pressure for concessions in the Ukraine. Not Crimea, just minor give backs in eastern Ukraine. It doesn't even need to territory, just give Trump a cosmetic, political win. The point is to stoke Trump's ego, all else is secondary.<br /><br /><br />Now that he has proved to be Trump's friend, a man that can be worked with, Putin can manufacture some crisis in one of the Baltic states, it doesn't really matter which one. Russia can then move to protect the "large ethnic Russian population", Trump will acquiesce, or maybe even support his friend. <br /><br /><br />The fact that the Baltic states, either singly or together, are not vital to anybody but themselves is not relevant. Russia doesn't really need them for strategic purposes. But they are current members of NATO, and their betrayal would destroy the alliance. <br /><br /><br />Now, I only give this scenario a chance 30-40% likelihood (which is pretty high). I really think it is more likely Russia will continue the long term policy of destabilizing Europe via the large influx of refugees and supporting the neo-nationalist movements worldwide. That policy is working very well at the moment, why change it?Smurphsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-39046186439761891552016-11-26T07:41:57.317-08:002016-11-26T07:41:57.317-08:00Wow, Catfish!
Haven't heard from you in a rea...Wow, Catfish!<br /><br />Haven't heard from you in a really long time!<br /><br />Your Vampire/Zombie ratio reminds me of my archaeology days, when I had a Project Manager who was compiling a gazetteer of the kind of small towns on the Great Plains and the Range & Basin region archaeologists often end up stuck in during field work. One of his key features was that each town got a Bar/Church ratio, a key statistic that was displayed prominently in the upper right corner of each town profile. You can make of that what you will.<br /><br />On the subject of vampires, my daughter just told me about a book that I bought a few months back but haven't had time to read, called "Survival of the Nicest." In it they describe a study of vampire bats, that found that they will feed strangers (of the same species) who have not had luck foraging for food. Paul SBnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-12015442428927153662016-11-26T07:22:19.263-08:002016-11-26T07:22:19.263-08:00Catfish
Strong Work! As to what it means I could...Catfish<br /><br />Strong Work! As to what it means I could see a very interesting free for all discussion on that.<br /><br />TacitusTacitushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17007086196578740689noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-69808564436287797582016-11-26T06:52:18.744-08:002016-11-26T06:52:18.744-08:00Reviewers comment:
You need to drill down to sepa...Reviewers comment:<br /><br />You need to drill down to separate "Vampires as an infection" (like the recent series The Strain), from "Vampires as privileged immortals". The former is clearly closer to zombies. The thesis, otoh, requires the latter, vampires as a proxy for the powerful.Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-26919427514337259762016-11-26T05:48:14.651-08:002016-11-26T05:48:14.651-08:00Gracious host--
I find I have to dispute your ass...Gracious host--<br /><br />I find I have to dispute your assertion, so comfortingly full of truthiness, that <i>"vampire flicks always correlate with Republican administrations. (During democratic administrations, it’s zombies, all the way down.)"</i> This may be because we are using differing data sets, but let's investigate. For SCIENCE!<br /><br />Methods: searches of IMDB for keywords "vampire" and "zombie", combined with 1-year time restrictions, for years 1953-2016. Data are insufficiently sparse to continue analysis before 1953; besides which, the controls of both the studio system and wartime propaganda restrictions would likely introduce fatal confounders in any case. Test statistic used was (V-Z)/(V+Z), i.e, the relative excess of vampire films as a proportion of the total of vampire and zombie flicks. Comparisons were made to control of the federal Presidency, Senate, and House by major party.<br /><br />Results: With the exception of two outlier years, 1953 and 1959, vampire films dominated the box office until 1980 regardless of party control of any branch of government. A dramatic shift to zombie films occurs with the election of Ronald Reagan and persists until 1990, when a slow creep back to a slightly vampiric balance occurs. With the election of George W. Bush in 2000, instability in the V/Z balance occurs, settling in 2007 (after Democratic House control is secured) on a distinct zombie preference, a period persisting until the present day.<br /><br />Conclusions: The hypothesis that the country displays distinct "moods" regarding vampire/zombie preference is confirmed. Data are insufficient to verify statistical significance, but support is found for the idea that the V/Z preference is tied to political shifts. The hypothesis of a tight linkage between the V/Z preference and presidential or other partisan control patterns is rejected.<br /><br />Supplemental data and tables available on request.<br /><br />--Catfish N. Cod, amateur political scientist on the flyCatfish N. Codnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-87298335227801316452016-11-25T16:38:39.117-08:002016-11-25T16:38:39.117-08:00By the way, I kicked in $50 to the Stein recount y...By the way, I kicked in $50 to the Stein recount yesterday. My daughter and her husband did $100.<br /><br />People want this.<br /><br />One of the most basic ideas in a democracy is that election winners don't jail or harm losers just for having lost (which is what Trump seems to think he can do) and losers don't take up weapons, but accept that they've lost because a peaceful society is worth that trade, and there's always next election!<br /><br />Conversely, if the winners use their victories to change the rules, undemocratically making sure the losers can't ever win again, then the losers will eventually abandon their commitment to peace.<br /><br />Some people really would rather rule in Hell than serve in Heaven, seems to me...TCBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08153506222271955110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-29551416052208424672016-11-25T15:51:11.229-08:002016-11-25T15:51:11.229-08:00Tacitus. No sweat, YOUR kind of republican will b...Tacitus. No sweat, YOUR kind of republican will be run by the democrats in every conservative-leaning congressional district and (I hope) state assembly seat in the country, in 2018. Why? Because the race in my district to unseat Darrell piece-of-work Issa is still not declared! Even this year of Trump, in a conservative district, with Issa pouring $50 million of his own cash into slander-ads, Col. Applegate is tied!<br /><br />This is the year the dems will learn. Run a retired colonel in every district they do not currently win. There will be tons of willing retired cols and navy captains, after 2 years of Trump! Make it colonels, all the way down! Oh and some doctors like Tacitus 2018!<br /><br />Seriously, I BOTH hope Jill Stein's recount uncovers flagrant cheating AND kinda almost hope DT stays in, anyway. (Not really.) Because he'll be so de-legitimized that when the recession hits, there will be nothing left of the GOP to scrape off the walls. If Clinton somehow got in, we'll be well-governed and sleep well and be safe and get a decent Court... but it will be Civil War forever and the recession will be hers.<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-12152369142017574172016-11-25T14:58:10.919-08:002016-11-25T14:58:10.919-08:00I see I was mistaken about the year that Alan Moor...I see I was mistaken about the year that Alan Moore began writing "V for Vendetta". It was 1981. Which leads to a strange parallel, because 1981 was also the year the movie "Escape From New York" came out, and that one also took place in an imagined future dystopian of 1997.<br /><br />LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-16715933504471193742016-11-25T14:39:02.049-08:002016-11-25T14:39:02.049-08:00Alfred Differ:
I especially appreciated the bit n...Alfred Differ:<br /><i><br />I especially appreciated the bit near the end that spoke to the consequences of faking it<br /></i><br /><br />One might suddenly find oneself president of the United States. :)LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-58296167875333879602016-11-25T14:30:49.077-08:002016-11-25T14:30:49.077-08:00May I suggest DACATOKATE?May I suggest DACATOKATE?silenceinheavenforabouthalfanhournoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-77707472115530015662016-11-25T14:23:36.749-08:002016-11-25T14:23:36.749-08:00Heh. Someone is doing replication work and poking ...Heh. Someone is doing replication work and poking holes in a bit of pop psychology.<br /><br />http://medicalxpress.com/news/2016-11-power-poses-dont-potentially-backfire.html<br /><br />I especially appreciated the bit near the end that spoke to the consequences of faking it. 8)Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-83415803253990044842016-11-25T12:58:12.594-08:002016-11-25T12:58:12.594-08:00I remember the Sterling novel. It's an intrigu...I remember the Sterling novel. It's an intriguing idea and I doubt it would be interpreted as 'black face' imitation. I'm sure it would piss off some people, though. I'd do it just to piss them off. 8)Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-54174793827398375382016-11-25T08:16:24.740-08:002016-11-25T08:16:24.740-08:00Jumper, there was an Arthur C. Clarke short where ... Jumper, there was an Arthur C. Clarke short where a visiting star ship crew identifies as the descendants of those who established a colony on Earth, but fled because of a hideous genetic plague, and gave a message "If any of you or still white, we can cure you.".Tim H.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-41952640539481196402016-11-25T08:12:02.358-08:002016-11-25T08:12:02.358-08:00I think a strong reason we're going through th... I think a strong reason we're going through this is the public had confidence that the republican congress would refuse to work with HRC, just to prove they'd never need a proctologist. And there is a small chance* that the hairpiece that walks like a man might accomplish something positive.<br /><br />*Possibly comparable to my chances of winning the lottery, but a chance.Tim H.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-44794129486987861522016-11-25T08:06:17.073-08:002016-11-25T08:06:17.073-08:00Re. body mod and identity politics, was it Bruce s...Re. body mod and identity politics, was it Bruce sterling who conceived of a future fad involving a pill which would strongly increase the melanin? I seem to recall a story mentioning how white surfers began going black for sun / skin cancer protection; teens followed up because surfers are cool, and then all the grownups who try to look with-it and young and cool. Soon everyone was black.<br /><br />One wonders if such a fad would be strongly resented as a modern black-face thing. Also I think that stripes and leopard spots would be pretty cool too.Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-17769802504244375312016-11-25T07:02:19.062-08:002016-11-25T07:02:19.062-08:00Dr. Brin said, "Stein was the one. As a forma...Dr. Brin said, "Stein was the one. As a formal candidate she has 'standing.'"<br /><br />If the recounts change anything, they'll be erecting statues to her and she'll probably end up in Congress in 2018. Even if they don't, she's the unexpected hero in all this. <br />Clinton presently leads in the vote count by 2.13 million votes, nearly two full percentage points. She has more votes than any presidential contender in US history. And still, we're going through this.Zepp Jamiesonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16261339498383415026noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-27206850833778274522016-11-25T06:56:55.973-08:002016-11-25T06:56:55.973-08:00"Tacitus 2018!"
List of people enthused... "Tacitus 2018!"<br /><br />List of people enthused about this, in order of decending order:<br /><br />1. David Brin.<br />2. Tacitus (hey, when you have "robot Carny" on your CV it gets harder to add interesting stuff.<br />3. either political party<br />4. Mrs. T.<br /><br />unknown status, the voters of Wisconsin.<br /><br />As I do not live in a Free Democracy or in a True Republic, the question is unlikely to ever be addressed. Nay, living in a Benevolent Spouseocracy is not without enchantments, but both the positive and negative powers of the New Household Order are ready to be deployed at the first hint of Contrary action.<br /><br />TacitusTacitushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17007086196578740689noreply@blogger.com