tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post4511705155356587094..comments2024-03-29T06:22:47.638-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Save Cato from the Kochs? Should we care?David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1491955235904027012012-03-26T20:43:26.603-07:002012-03-26T20:43:26.603-07:00I'm not sure that I agree with the sentiment, ...I'm not sure that I agree with the sentiment, but I totally enjoy the cleverness of @Jumper's:<br /><br />'Fitzgerald: "The West really is different."<br />Hemingway: "Yes, they have more coal."'<br /><br />And who knows? it may express A truth even if not ALL truth.rewinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14008105385364113371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-2939114010625613442012-03-26T19:39:16.386-07:002012-03-26T19:39:16.386-07:00... not an uncommon occurrence here, reason (altho...... not an uncommon occurrence here, reason (although one of my comments alluded to the post wrt another takeover)<br /><br />Still, your observation answers the question: 'do we care?'Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-87220326792126412352012-03-26T04:04:13.621-07:002012-03-26T04:04:13.621-07:00I just did a quick scan of the comments and Cato i...I just did a quick scan of the comments and Cato is mentioned exactly once and Koch exactly once. (Ironically as an addendum on the end of a comment to related to a previous thread.) I thought that was the topic?reasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10958786975015285323noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-33419063745965873372012-03-25T20:42:34.871-07:002012-03-25T20:42:34.871-07:00Onward to the 2nd of 3 political postings.Onward to the 2nd of 3 political postings.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-69552964135954506902012-03-25T18:49:28.669-07:002012-03-25T18:49:28.669-07:00Fitzgerald: "The West really is different.&qu...Fitzgerald: "The West really is different."<br />Hemingway: "Yes, they have more coal."Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-82170650273502678802012-03-25T17:35:27.493-07:002012-03-25T17:35:27.493-07:00Rewinn is right that if Brazil and India and much ...Rewinn is right that if Brazil and India and much of Latin America and Indonesia etc get rich too, they will experience their own tensions between oligarchy and enlightenment, and several may choose enlightenment.<br /><br />Ian, no one is saying that the Chinese are incapable of industrious capitalist development. But lacking the saving graces of Rooseveltean enlightenment systems, the resulting systems are likely to follow the patterns predicted by Marx, which have already played out in the "privatized" Russia. <br /><br />As for this: "Kim Stanley Robinson makes the argument in The Years of Rice and Salt that the world would have evolved to something quite similar to our current state of technological and social advancement even if most of Europe had been wiped out by the Black Death."<br /><br />You are only half right. KSR suggests parallel development. But he also shows that only the Iroquois offer that world any hope of enlightenment-style governance.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-90077437831273763592012-03-25T17:18:41.898-07:002012-03-25T17:18:41.898-07:00sociotard,
Exactly. This may be obvious to some, ...sociotard,<br /><br />Exactly. This may be obvious to some, but I should state it anyway to those not familiar with scientific simulation. Our ability to characterize things that are well understood experimentally is pretty good. Making small extrapolations to what we already know works quite well too. When it comes to new regimes of physics either not demonstrated experimentally, or not measured well from existing experiments, simulations become much more questionable. Sometimes we get lucky, but more often than not, our necessarily approximate models of reality show themselves to be too approximate for the regimes we wish to understand. <br /><br />Note that this comes from someone who writes scientific simulation software for his paycheck. I'm going to adopt my usual "wait and see" attitude here.<br /><br />As an engineer (albeit a computational one), one thing that bothers me about the whole fusion debate is that people assume once we know how to produce a burning plasma efficiently, we will know how to build an economical reactor for power production. I see the whole Q-value (energy out over energy in) greater than 5-10 as the beginning of an even more difficult problem. There are unique issues to fusion reactor design on the materials side that are quite tricky. With today's technology plus the ability to make a burning plasma, fusion would easily most expensive power on the planet -- in other words, not practical.BCRionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04955960949670858365noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-61177392822209784802012-03-25T15:38:04.143-07:002012-03-25T15:38:04.143-07:00Meanwhile, guess who's currently at the deepes...Meanwhile, guess who's currently at the deepest point in the world's oceans? (second visit in over fifty years.)Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-22940850671396561782012-03-25T13:43:31.271-07:002012-03-25T13:43:31.271-07:00regarding computer simulation fusion:
Humbug.
A ...regarding computer simulation fusion:<br /><br />Humbug.<br /><br />A scientist performing a detailed simulation of fusion is as close to making a meatspace model as a middleschooler making out with her pillow is to actually reaching second base.<br /><br />Computer simulations are nice, but reality is universally messier and more complicated than the simulations.<br /><br />No, fusion is the power source of the future and always will be. I would wager a nice $20 bill that 50 years from now fusion will still not be a commercially viable power source.sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-57731863344061598032012-03-25T13:06:57.998-07:002012-03-25T13:06:57.998-07:00This is a nice web site. Good fresh interface and ...This is a nice web site. Good fresh interface and nice informative articles. I will be coming back soon, thanks for the great article.<br /><br /><strong><a title="What Causes Cancer?" href="http://health.sumch.com/?page_id=37" rel="nofollow"><strong>What Causes Cancer?</strong></a></strong>timeinfobdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01369008320677452071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-31520792550549960302012-03-25T04:45:20.182-07:002012-03-25T04:45:20.182-07:00One news morsel before bed.
Computer simulations ...One news morsel before bed.<br /><br />Computer simulations of magnetically-confined inertial fusion, suggest we may be a lot closer to workable fusion reactors than previously thought.<br /><br />Sandia Labs will test the simulation experimentally in 2013.<br /><br />http://www.physorg.com/news/2012-03-nuclear-fusion-simulation-high-gain-energy.htmlIan Gouldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04352147295160200128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-35431027208224859302012-03-25T02:34:13.109-07:002012-03-25T02:34:13.109-07:00Time in short supply at the moment but anyone who ...Time in short supply at the moment but anyone who thinks there's anything innate in Chinese culture that prevents thriving free market capitalism needs to visit Hong Kong, Taiwan or Singapore.<br /><br />A quick summary of my position: secularist/rationalist liberal/democratic scientific/technological, egalitarian/meritocratic and capitalist societies (try making an acronym out of that) are nt an inevitable result of human cultural evolution because there's no telology involved but there are powerful forces pushing in that direction.<br /><br />Kim Stanley Robinson makes the argument in The Years of Rice and Salt that the world would have evolved to something quite similar to our current state of technological and social advancement even if most of Europe had been wiped out by the Black Death.<br /><br />I disagree with him about a number of particulars but I agree with his general thesis.Ian Gouldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04352147295160200128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-21734940651840184382012-03-25T00:41:06.593-07:002012-03-25T00:41:06.593-07:00I saw "Hunger Games", and I think I can ...I saw "Hunger Games", and I think I can recomend it. It made me cry.<br /><br />Brutal empires just make good cinema.sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36365024842648206592012-03-24T23:01:50.261-07:002012-03-24T23:01:50.261-07:00@Dr Brin:
While I share your concern that Chinese ...@Dr Brin:<br />While I share your concern that Chinese mercantilist commercialism may be unhelpful towards, if not hostile to, individualist reciprocal accountability and self-reinforcing positive sum games ... and in addition is perfectly compatible with the interests of America's 1%, making a potentially unholy alliance indeed ... it seems to me that the solution is not reforming the unreformable, but growing everyone else. Don't India and Latin America, for example, have great potential as incubators of freedom?rewinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14008105385364113371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-16146131390785461752012-03-24T20:34:12.314-07:002012-03-24T20:34:12.314-07:00News flash!!!!
Dick (Tin-Man) Cheney finally gets...News flash!!!!<br /><br />Dick (Tin-Man) Cheney finally gets a heart!!!David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-38696278128733569752012-03-24T17:54:34.087-07:002012-03-24T17:54:34.087-07:00Ian said to DB: “your claim that the average Chine...Ian said to DB: “your claim that the average Chinese or Indian commoner was worse off than the average western European or American prior to circa 1800 is simply wrong.”<br /><br />Would you please - Ian - show me where I said that? Or said anything even remotely like anything that could even remotely be considered likely to make you think that I said that?<br /><br />I respect you (!) so I really would like to know.<br /><br />Paul451 said ro Ian: “I wonder if you're reacting instinctively against a perceived racism when you hear "Western Civilisation is special", taking it to mean "no other people could have produced the Enlightenment, therefore we deserve control/power", when he merely meant, "no other succeeded, therefore this rare success must be ferociously protected". Every other attempt lost to the oligarchs or became one, and if we relax, this attempt too will fail, is failing, and people should be pissed off about it.”<br /><br />Precisely. If I felt is likely that the current rise of Chinese mercantilist commercialism would not only raise people out of poverty, but also lead to individualist reciprocal accountability and self-reinforcing positive sum games, I would be MUCH more relaxed about the current decline of western world leadership. <br /><br />Indeed, the greatest saving grace of Pax Americana is the implicit underlying assumption that it should be the LAST great pax empire. And discussion of Whatever Comes Next (WCN)) should be much higher on our agenda. I believe we’ll start seeing the outlines of WCN in a couple decades. (Alas, the preliminary glimmers that I perceive so far are deeply deeply worrisome.)<br /><br />There is no way WCN will be sane or “star-trekky” unless it is heavily influenced in design and assumptions by western memes. e.g. the meme that:<br /><br />“Whatever is not specifically disallowed, by lawful openly deliberated process... is automatically allowed.” Instead of the standard meme:<br /><br />“Whatever is not specifically allowed is automatically forbidden.” If you want this latter meme to dominate - as it did in most cultures - then by all means, let’s neglect to keep the west strong.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-59274208105479358552012-03-24T15:06:15.689-07:002012-03-24T15:06:15.689-07:00Hi Ian
Jared Diamond's
Guns Germs and Steel
...Hi Ian<br /><br />Jared Diamond's <br />Guns Germs and Steel<br />Is an excellent read - I must get another copy - I lent mine out...<br /><br />The book is an answer to - why the Europeans?<br />And includes information on domesticated species as well as political effects<br /><br />To rephrase - and link to David's point<br /><br />Europe as a mess of competing states partially separated by barriers but still massively interlinked provided multiple experimental area's that eventually produced the agricultural and industrial revolutions<br />The multiple nature prevented David's "capture" and stall problem.<br /><br />The question now is - do we still have enough "separation" to prevent a capture event from stalling the whole worldduncan cairncrossnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-88610937268538277912012-03-24T10:46:30.078-07:002012-03-24T10:46:30.078-07:00Ian,
"you'd probably find the Ikko sect o...Ian,<br /><i>"you'd probably find the Ikko sect of Japan even more interesting but they're of less direct relevance here because they were crushed by internal Japanese forces rather than by the alliance of westerners and local oligarchs."</i><br /><br />If I can play Brin-fanboi for a moment, isn't this what David has said in this post and almost all of his political writing? That for 6000 years this always happens. I wonder if you're reacting instinctively against a perceived racism when you hear "Western Civilisation is special", taking it to mean "no other people <i>could</i> have produced the Enlightenment, therefore we deserve control/power", when he merely meant, "no other succeeded, therefore this rare success must be ferociously protected". Every other attempt lost to the oligarchs or became one, and if we relax, this attempt too will fail, is failing, and people should be pissed off about it.<br /><br /><i>"Toyotomi was a peasant who [became] the effective ruler of Japan [...] He was a sumbol of the rapid social change going on all over the country - and realised that if he could rise from the commons to rule the country, somebody else could also - and displace him or his heirs."</i><br /><br />Again, isn't that exactly what David has been saying, over and over and over? The tendency of the would-be oligarchs to undermine any rival powerbase, leaving only themselves. And they do that to preserve their legacy of power for their off-spring, ie, to limit competition against their children. And that this is happening in the US right now (and spreading).<br /><br /><i>"So he devoted much of his reign to establishing a rigid social structure; disarming the peasantry; subordinating the Buddhist sects and monasteries to central control and preventing the merchants from getting political power to match their wealth."</i><br /><br />See? Undermining rival elites. And if he hadn't, it's likely a handful of the wealthiest merchant families would have eventually done the same thing, for precisely the same reason. (Or religious control would have emerged, a la the Catholic Church, or someone else's military would have unified rule and then the highest commanders would fight to become the new Imperials, a la Rome, or, or, or...)Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-3416095260155890452012-03-24T10:01:49.557-07:002012-03-24T10:01:49.557-07:00@ David Brin
"It wasn't what privatizing ...@ David Brin<br />"It wasn't what privatizing social security would have been... a wholesale gang rape of the entire middle class."<br /><br />Don't forget that Thatcher started the state pensions privatization scheme around 1984. It ended up a disaster. But I agree that it wasn't wholesale gang rape as pensioners had a choice (I think).<br /><br />Russia was able to take such liberties because they instituted a "free market" economy without strong institutions to create rules and manage them. In the US, we have the institutions, but as you have stated elsewhere, conservatives have been undermining their credibility and dismantling them for decades. Rather than a "Wild West" scenario like Russia after 1989, we have a more gradual fall into the mess. But we can reverse course, at least for now.Alex Tolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01556422553154817988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-29585434288396406872012-03-24T04:36:08.530-07:002012-03-24T04:36:08.530-07:00One final note for now:
Based on the best economi...One final note for now:<br /><br />Based on the best economic history we have, David (not on some romantic notion or political correctness)your claim that the average Chinese or Indian commoner was worse off than the average western European or American prior to circa 1800 is simply wrong.<br /><br />As I mentioned earlier, anthropological studies show lower levels of malnutrition and micro-nutrient deficiency diseases such as scurvy and rickets in Chinese an Indian populations than in European populations. <br /><br />Up until ca. 1800, Japanese and Chinese commoners lived longer than their European counterparts, ate better and earned equivalent or higher incomes.<br /><br />I'll refer you here to Kenneth Pomeranz's The Great Divergence.<br /><br />http://www.amazon.com/Great-Divergence-Europe-Making-Economy/dp/0691090106Ian Gouldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04352147295160200128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-59846209417861032062012-03-24T03:53:34.531-07:002012-03-24T03:53:34.531-07:00Duncan I haven't read Jared Diamond but there&...Duncan I haven't read Jared Diamond but there's precious little sign of ossification in, for example, Ching China.<br /><br />In the 18th century, (prior to the Qianlong Emperor's dotage), the empire doubled its geographic extent and more than doubled its population.<br /><br />While military expansion stopped at that point, economic expansion and population growth continued.<br /><br />Prior to circa 1600, the economic growth rate of the entire world had averaged around 0.5-1% per annum.<br /><br />Then in western Europe economic growth edged up to 1% or more per annum. There's a bunch of reasons for that including some that people generally overlook -like the introduction of new world crops such as potatoes into economies that were still primarily agricultural. <br /><br />(That was also a big factor in Ching China actually - growing crops like eggplant, capsicum and chilis on land unsuitable for rice production.) <br /><br />It took the Europeans a couple of centuries simply to catch up with the more prosperous Asian societies.<br /><br />Then around 1800, European economies accelerated again to 1-2% per annum growth.<br /><br />So its not so much that the Asians "ossified" as that they didn't match the economic acceleration seen in Europe.Ian Gouldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04352147295160200128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-69402688788258001402012-03-24T03:39:32.864-07:002012-03-24T03:39:32.864-07:00"You guys miss the point. You two are not bra..."You guys miss the point. You two are not brave exceptionals, criticising your own civilization. You are NORMAL. You represent the norm of your generation... and mine before you.<br /><br />THat has not happened before."<br /><br />I'm 51 David I think we're more of the same generation that of different generations.Ian Gouldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04352147295160200128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-72309963413259319882012-03-24T00:32:06.963-07:002012-03-24T00:32:06.963-07:00You guys miss the point. You two are not brave ex...You guys miss the point. You two are not brave exceptionals, criticising your own civilization. You are NORMAL. You represent the norm of your generation... and mine before you.<br /><br />THat has not happened before.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-79967339291516560662012-03-24T00:08:35.980-07:002012-03-24T00:08:35.980-07:00David, Ian
Your take on - might have been's ...David, Ian<br /><br />Your take on - might have been's - reminds me of Jared Diamond's reason - why the Europeans - and not others<br /><br />Because Europe was fragmented by mountains - rivers<br />No single state could arise<br />Meaning that any state that tried to stop progress would be overtaken by its neighbors<br />A multiple experiment with competition <br /><br />No Toyotomi Hideyoshi could do more than stop one state<br /><br />The larger units in the East were separated from competition and vulnerable to internal ossificationduncan cairncrossnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-43340127859545230932012-03-23T23:52:24.690-07:002012-03-23T23:52:24.690-07:00'SHow me those that taught their children &quo...'SHow me those that taught their children "criticize us!" Criticize your parents generation's hypocrisies."<br /><br />I show you Nichiren, founder of Sun Path Buddhism which later produced the Ikko.<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nichiren<br /><br />"Nichiren criticized other Buddhist schools for their manipulations of the populace for political and religious control. Citing Buddhist sutras and commentaries, Nichiren argued that the Buddhist teachings were being distorted for their own gain (see the compilation of Nichiren's exchanges with government leaders and Buddhist practitioners in "The Writings of Nichiren Daishonin" 1999).<br /><br />Some groups[who?] today characterize Nichiren's efforts as an attempt to reform the Buddhist schools of Japan. Through his writings, it seems that Nichiren was not trying to reform other sects. Nichiren stated this clearly, in his Risshō Ankoku Ron (立正安国論?): "Treatise On Establishing the Correct Teaching for the Peace of the Land"[3]), his first major treatise and the first of three remonstrations with government authorities. He felt that it was imperative for the sovereign to recognize and accept the singly true and correct form of Buddhism (i.e., 立正: risshō) as the only way to achieve peace and prosperity for the land and its people and end their suffering (i.e., 安国: ankoku). This "true and correct form of Buddhism", as Nichiren saw it, entailed regarding the Lotus Sutra as the fullest expression of the Buddha's teachings and putting those teachings into practice. Nichiren thought this could be achieved in Japan by withdrawing lay support so that the deviant monks would be forced to change their ways or revert to laymen to prevent starving.<br /><br />Based on prophecies made in several sutras,[4] Nichiren attributed the occurrence of the famines, disease, and natural disasters (especially drought, typhoons, and earthquakes) of his day to teachings of Buddhism no longer appropriate for the time."<br /><br /><br />Nichiren declared that women could attain enlightenment. Considered against the backdrop of 13th-century Japanese society, his doctrinal position on women was revolutionary.[33][34] Within Japanese society, women were seen as second-class citizens who, from a legal perspective, were no more than property. The majority of Japanese Buddhist sects discriminated openly against women,[35] and many of their views bordered on outright misogyny.[citation needed]<br /><br />Nichiren, on the other hand, espoused individual empowerment, saying that "faith, not gender, is the primary determinant [for enlightenment]… physical differences do not hinder Buddhist salvation in any way".[36] While his Japanese contemporaries rarely even wrote to women, approximately one fifth of Nichiren's extant works were addressed to women while an estimated 30% of his Gohonzon recipients were female. One of his often quoted passages states: "There should be no discrimination among those who propagate the five chararcters of Myoho-renge-kyo… be they men or women."[37]<br /><br />Nichiren's writings contain both his doctrinal position on women as well as practical advice to female believers. He viewed marriage as a complementary partnership,[38] and when speaking of motherhood, he nearly always mentions the role and obligations of fathers in the family unit.[39] Nichiren's views on the enlightenment of women were based on the Lotus Sutra, and contained in his clear statement: "Only in the Lotus Sutra do we read that a woman who embraces this sutra not only excels all other women, but also surpasses all men"Ian Gouldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04352147295160200128noreply@blogger.com