tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post4308103957119446711..comments2024-03-28T18:18:37.133-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Ideologies of betrayal - several cogent essay/articles you might not want to miss. Oh, and a distilled "Marx for dummies!"David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger140125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-58761246966903046132023-03-31T18:11:02.639-07:002023-03-31T18:11:02.639-07:00Locum,
Thanks for sharing the link! As a Fox News...Locum,<br /><br />Thanks for sharing the link! As a Fox News editor your job would be to underscore this line: "in the 20th century, the group (Sierra Club) embraced racist ideas that overpopulation was the root of environmental harm/"<br /><br />Perhaps the All Things Considered editors might have been a bit over-generous in assuming the audience had the attention span to connect the latter with "Environmental leaders are very, very at fault for setting up this narrative around, you know, untouched spaces. And to preserve them, Native people must be removed, the lands taken from them and put under federal or state protection ... so this is where the language of preservation really crosses over into this narrative of exclusion." <br /><br />Is the idea of overpopulation being the root of environmental harm "racist" or "Eurocentrically myopic?" What is the root of environmental harm if your an ingenious person? I think it's a bit more complicated than your three bullet points. <br /><br />Dr. B<br /><br />Am slowly progressing through Existence (because I'm limiting it to 20 min a day to properly digest.) The interludes structurally remind me of what PF did in Gateway. My only dumb question so far that I don't think will get explained is what happens when the rail tug pulling the transcontinental dirigibles encounters a place where a current train tunnels :) <br /><br /><br />Slim Moldiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04804029818709230857noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-88417215001306420082023-03-31T17:42:25.860-07:002023-03-31T17:42:25.860-07:00onward
onwardonward<br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-35833250021535209452023-03-31T17:42:14.448-07:002023-03-31T17:42:14.448-07:00zzzzzzzzzzzzzzDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-74206889935954138802023-03-31T15:05:10.158-07:002023-03-31T15:05:10.158-07:00https://www.npr.org/2022/03/31/1090083542/the-grow...https://www.npr.org/2022/03/31/1090083542/the-growing-overlap-between-the-far-right-and-environmentalism<br /><br />https://www.npr.org/2022/04/01/1089990539/climate-change-politics<br /><br />Having learned from NPR today that Conservationism, Environmentalism & Climate Change Science are the irredeemably racist products of White Supremacy & Nazi Ideology, I'm in something of an ideological pickle:<br /><br />(1) Do I reject the inherently evil origins of the Climate Change Agenda, Environmental Science & the Biden Administration's Green New Deal in order to repudiate Racism, White Supremacy & Nazi Ideology? (or)<br /><br />(2) Do I embrace Racism, White Supremacy & Nazi Ideology in order to support the inherently evil origins of the Climate Change Agenda, Environmental Science & the Biden Administration's Green New Deal? (or)<br /><br />(3) Do I recognize that NPR (and, by extension, the US government) has become the purveyor of both raving madness & blithering idiocy?<br /><br /><i>As it appears impossible to reconcile either Climate Change Acceptance with Racial Equity or White Supremacy with Climate Change Denial, I'm leaning heavily towards Option (3).</i><br /><br /><br />Bestlocumranchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06812045410916208141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-47096749665808569612023-03-31T12:16:57.454-07:002023-03-31T12:16:57.454-07:00"I am not a member of any organized political..."I am not a member of any organized political party...I am a Democrat"<br /><br />Will Rogers<br /><br />We Democrats are definitely a compromise party and have more than one message. Makes it hard to hammer a single message. We couldn't even agree on a coordinated message about prosecuting the malefactors of great wealth in 2008. <br /><br />PappenheimerUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08628667566485965800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-80275096709742645132023-03-31T10:15:54.712-07:002023-03-31T10:15:54.712-07:00If you want investment by the rich in productive (...If you want investment by the rich in productive ("supply") capital then incentivize THAT. It works. Giving massive tax grifts to oligarchy gets it poured into 'rentier' activities that are passive and parasitical - exactly as Adam Smith described - e.g. buying up a third of the available US housing stock, driving young families out of the market. Almost none of the SS cuts (trillions) went into plants and production capacity... as is happening NOW under the Dem incentives.<br /><br />And dems are too stoopid to make the case clearly, alasDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-59206872107238021732023-03-31T07:46:45.018-07:002023-03-31T07:46:45.018-07:00reason:
I do not understand why people don't ...reason:<br /><i><br />I do not understand why people don't get that company taxes make investment cheaper. <br /></i><br /><br />They don't care about investment. They want to make profit-taking cheaper.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-21665531008743781492023-03-31T07:45:44.352-07:002023-03-31T07:45:44.352-07:00Tim H:
LH, once upon a time it worked*...
*AIUI, ...Tim H:<br /><i><br />LH, once upon a time it worked*...<br />*AIUI, during the Kennedy administration.<br /></i><br /><br />Yes, but when the rate already is 90%, there's room to go lower and optimize return.<br /><br />When the rate is 15%, not so much.<br /><br /><i><br />Never trust auto correct.<br /></i><br /><br />I never do. :)Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-16548524288315548512023-03-31T07:03:06.713-07:002023-03-31T07:03:06.713-07:00Re effect of tax rates, I do not understand why pe...Re effect of tax rates, I do not understand why people don't get that company taxes make investment cheaper. Because depreciation then has an after tax cash value so that investment (so long as it is profitable) comes at a discount.reasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09488435543492412991noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-90285036878428282152023-03-31T06:58:45.780-07:002023-03-31T06:58:45.780-07:00Expletive! "Neo liberal". Never trust au... Expletive! "Neo liberal". Never trust auto correct.Tim H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12380916635831994159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-33960800422954508002023-03-31T06:57:00.161-07:002023-03-31T06:57:00.161-07:00LH, once upon a time it worked*, but under circums... LH, once upon a time it worked*, but under circumstances quite different than those in the early eighties. The continued enthusiasm for off-shoring largely eliminates the possibility of a tax cut increasing revenue, for that to happen again would require a resurgence of union labor in this Nation that likely can't happen unless World trade unravels, or new liberal economics is discredited beyond redemption.<br /><br />*AIUI, during the Kennedy administration.Tim H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12380916635831994159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-66835558178262514092023-03-31T05:54:20.482-07:002023-03-31T05:54:20.482-07:00duncan cairncross:
Re the "Laffer Curve"...duncan cairncross:<br /><i><br />Re the "Laffer Curve"<br /><br />YES there is a tax rate that is the rate that will produce the maximum return in taxes<br /><br />But taxes are not JUST to get money<br /></i><br /><br />Even if they were just to get money, the optimum rate is not as "Laffably" low as the Supply-Siders claim. They insist that <b>any</b> tax cut increases revenue.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-66373818869979013452023-03-31T05:09:23.140-07:002023-03-31T05:09:23.140-07:00Perhaps one of the topics Musk wishes to discuss i...Perhaps one of the topics Musk wishes to discuss in China is the proposed six month pausing of advanced AI training:<br />https://www.reuters.com/business/teslas-musk-planning-visit-china-seeking-meeting-with-premier-sources-2023-03-31/Alan Brookshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17996922923136240709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-79164765006683754512023-03-30T21:42:07.579-07:002023-03-30T21:42:07.579-07:00Re the "Laffer Curve"
YES there is a ta...Re the "Laffer Curve"<br /><br />YES there is a tax rate that is the rate that will produce the maximum return in taxes<br /><br />But taxes are not JUST to get money <br /><br />Taxes are also used to drive behavior<br /><br />When the top tax rate was over 90% it had the effect of making companies decide NOT to pay huge salaries but instead to plough money back into their operations<br /><br />Its possible that the 90% tax rates did reduce the amount of money taken in tax - but the high tax rate DID drive innovation and improvement - which in the long term results in more tax being payed duncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-39673491594700163842023-03-30T20:33:04.370-07:002023-03-30T20:33:04.370-07:00Larry,
"Reaganomics....Supporters celebrated...Larry,<br /><br />"Reaganomics....Supporters celebrated this, while detractors made fun of the absurdity...."<br /><br />Thus the aptly named "Laffer Curve"?<br /><br />PappenheimerUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08628667566485965800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-61254291373657971142023-03-30T19:58:28.963-07:002023-03-30T19:58:28.963-07:00PSB:
The downward spiral for America is a direct ...PSB:<br /><i><br />The downward spiral for America is a direct consequence of Reaganomics, which, in spite of the name, the Repugnant Party did way back in the Age of the Robber Barrons...<br /></i><br /><br />IIRC, the word "Reaganomics" was coined not just as an indication a particular economic philosophy, but as a backhanded recognition that that president's economy overturned the stodgy rules of economics themselves. The point was "Regular economics have been overturned. It's the age of <b>Reaganomics</b> instead." Supporters celebrated this, while detractors made fun of the absurdity, so the name caught on across the board.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-28109005140425491352023-03-30T18:52:36.082-07:002023-03-30T18:52:36.082-07:00Pappenheimer,
Check out the graph in this article...Pappenheimer,<br /><br />Check out the graph in this article:<br /><br />https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/13/us-wealth-inequality-top-01-worth-as-much-as-the-bottom-90<br /><br />The downward spiral for America is a direct consequence of Reaganomics, which, in spite of the name, the Repugnant Party did way back in the Age of the Robber Barrons, beginning with the "election" of Rutherford B. Hayes, and it had just as disastrous consequences then, too.<br /><br /><br />PSBLenahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05693969299639295594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36940990787763124342023-03-30T14:17:29.885-07:002023-03-30T14:17:29.885-07:00Scidata: " opportunities for AI in cognitive ...Scidata: " opportunities for AI in cognitive and physical disability are endlessly exciting..."<br /><br />As I depicted the world of 2040 being vastly empowering for sutistic spectrumists.<br /><br />In Saimov, Daneel Olivaw'a lifelong aim was to PREVENT Ai replacing humans... ironically by keeping humans too ignorant to re-invent AI... until he could turn humanity into a unity god he could worship.<br /><br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-72614618154510000732023-03-30T12:12:23.622-07:002023-03-30T12:12:23.622-07:00IMPROMPTU looks great, unfortunately I don't s...IMPROMPTU looks great, unfortunately I don't see an audiobook (yet). BTW I do think the opportunities for AI in cognitive and physical disability are endlessly exciting. Shades of Captain Pike and the Star Trek pilot.<br /><br />Since Sagan was mentioned, his first wife had a caveat about (biological) complexity.<br />"The idea that we are consciously care-taking such a large and mysterious system is ludicrous." - Lynn Margulis<br /><br />Some, including myself, have posited that the Great Replacement will not be about race or creed, but in fact AI. I think Asimov's FOUNDATION would have been even greater if it had bravely taken this tack. Kinda like FOUNDATION'S TRIUMPH.<br /><br />Among Foundation, Lost Horizon, and Forbin Project types, there is an esoteric and crazy little group at collapseOS.org<br />I'm just a very minor lurker there - too old and crusty to be a contributor.<br /><br />A pocket edition of Harari's "Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind" would go great alongside my early edition of H.G. Wells' "A Short History of the World". Just a wee bit of gradeschool study of deep time would do wonders for civility and decency. Asimov thought so.scidatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07152319593457629592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-92224580603885200762023-03-30T11:27:27.921-07:002023-03-30T11:27:27.921-07:00Have a look at IMPROMPTU: Amplifying Our Humanity ...Have a look at IMPROMPTU: Amplifying Our Humanity Through AI, by Reid Hoffman (co-founder of Linked-In). This new book contains conversations Reid had with GPT-4 before it was publicly released, along with incisive appraisals. His impudently optimistic take is that all of this could – possibly - go right. That we might see a future when AI is not a threat, but a partner. https://www.impromptubook.com/<br /> <br /> We don’t agree on every interpretation – e.g. I see no sign, yet, of what might be called ‘sapience.’ Sorry, the notion that GPT 5 – scheduled for December release - will be “true AGI” is pretty absurd. As Stephen Wolfram points out, massively-trained, probability-based word layering has more fundamentally in common with the lookup tables of 1960s Eliza than with, say, the deep thoughts of Carl Sagan or Sarah Hrdy or Melvin Konner. <br /> <br />What such programs will do is render extinct all talk of "Turing Tests." They will trigger another phase in what I called (6 years ago) the “robotic empathy crisis,” as millions of our neighbors jump aboard that misconception and start demanding rights for simulated beings. (A frequent topic in SF, including my own.) <br /> <br />Still, IMPROMPTU offers a perspective that’s far more realistic than recent, panicky cries issued by Jaron Lanier, Yuval Harari and others, calling for a futile, counterproductive moratorium – an unenforceable “training pause” that would only give a boost-advantage to secret labs, all over the globe (especially the most grotesquely dangerous: Wall Street’s feral predatory HFT-AIs.)<br /> <br />Alas, there is just one way to get a soft-landing out of the resulting maelstrom… a method that I see no mavens or pundits even remotely discussing, even though it is the same method we used, with increasing effectiveness, to end 6000 years of predation by organic human parasites, like kings, nobles, priests… and those hyper-smart predators called lawyers. <br /><br />But do look at IMPROMPTU! It explores this vital topic using the very human trait these programs were created to display – conversation.<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-19705371158491532442023-03-30T11:01:44.131-07:002023-03-30T11:01:44.131-07:00It's a mistake to compare GPT with human intel...It's a mistake to compare GPT with human intelligence and conclude there's little threat (either from AGI or nefarious actors). The big threat is more like Covid - an unforeseen, alien monster wandering in from left field. The point about telling others to desist whilst continuing to work away in back rooms is bang on. Computer peeps are selfish, greedy, arrogant, and corrupt. Except for yours truly of course.scidatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07152319593457629592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-56322760319988689582023-03-30T10:47:00.223-07:002023-03-30T10:47:00.223-07:00On the current AI issue, it seems to me that the p...On the current AI issue, it seems to me that the problem is not so much how capable GPT4 and similar are as how stupid the humans managing it have been. Giving it full access to the internet along with its own money to use. What could go wrong?<br /><br />To me this really highlights Dr. Brin's point. It's not so much AI capabilities that we need to guard against, it's a relative few humans using a new and powerful technological tool recklessly or for selfish / nefarious purposes. Trying to stop AI from being developed isn't going to work.Darrell Ehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14054311762477388637noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-26562179845953007282023-03-30T10:30:43.454-07:002023-03-30T10:30:43.454-07:00Automation and shipping jobs overseas are part of ...Automation and shipping jobs overseas are part of both trends, but other nations have handled the transition better. The side effect in this country appears to be a growth of fascism.<br /><br />PappenheimerUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08628667566485965800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-40104428083818060672023-03-30T10:26:31.552-07:002023-03-30T10:26:31.552-07:00Interesting - "The middle class, once the eco...Interesting - "The middle class, once the economic stratum of a clear majority of American adults, has steadily contracted in the past five decades. The share of adults who live in middle-class households fell from 61% in 1971 to 50% in 2021."<br /><br />Private union membership fell over the same period, bottoming out at @12% in 2007.<br /><br />Not sure when the inflection point turned downwards but I suspect the word "Reagan" is in the area.<br /><br />PappenheimerUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08628667566485965800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-5159835702433723292023-03-30T10:11:55.786-07:002023-03-30T10:11:55.786-07:00A Black Hole about 33 billion times the size of th...A Black Hole about 33 billion times the size of the Sun. Or is it merely another Black Hole?Alan Brookshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17996922923136240709noreply@blogger.com