tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post4248175371568869117..comments2024-03-18T21:52:45.757-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Jiu Jitsu in AfghanistanDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger47125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-22820375792343743802009-11-07T07:07:25.771-08:002009-11-07T07:07:25.771-08:00"Fanatics hurrying to Kandahar and moderates ..."Fanatics hurrying to Kandahar and moderates moving out. Especially any woman with any sense of pride or self-preservation. Drawing fanatics away from the rest of Afghanistan and Pakistan and concentrating them in a place that finds itself almost without women? Um... what's not to like?"<br /><br />Overall, your plan is merely ordinarily Machiavellian - but this quote has to be one of the stupidest things I've read in a long time. What do you think life is likely to be like for a woman in the middle of Kandahar who decides to move to Kabul on her own, without some handy male relative to bring along? Or for the daughter or wife of a "fanatic hurrying to Kandahar" who decides she'll stay behind?anthroposnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-40089271262913461362009-10-22T17:47:05.079-07:002009-10-22T17:47:05.079-07:00Sadly Dr. Brin your information on the Balkans app...Sadly Dr. Brin your information on the Balkans appears to be out of date by about six or seven years.<br /><br />It's not a case of what may happen over the next few years it's what's occurring right now.<br /><br />Thanks to the Dayton accords Bosnia is locked into the same sort of ethnic power sharing arrangement that has pretty much destroyed Lebanon. Not one ethnic group trusts another any farther than they did 15 years ago. Period.<br /><br />Kosovo is chafing under EULEX rule with increasing amounts of nationalist sentiments resulting in groups like the Vetevendosje committing acts of vandalism and sabotage against EU steadily increasing over the last three years more or less with tacit sanction from the Kosovo government in Pristina who want the EU out.<br /><br />Which also leads to all sorts of interesting "Greater Albania" territorial claims from groups like the ANA if the EU leaves not to mention leaving whats effectively a functioning kleptocracy and one of Europe's largest organized smuggling hubs unsupervised.<br /><br />With Serbia even the most pro-EU politicians are starting to wonder why they're bothering with EU membership when all their efforts just lead to yet mote moving targets and continual empty rhetoric from people like Biden.<br /><br />The Russians at least have had the grace to show up with cheque in hand and more if you want to look into the deals the Sergei Shoigu signed yesterday. And Shiogu is a mover and shaker in the world of Russian Silovki. No empty Biden-esque rhetoric there.<br /><br />But to put this another way with regards to Afghanistan... if we still have 150k troops in country in 15 years and they are the only thing keeping the locals who have supposedly signed up to embrace "democracy" and all that great other stuff that goes along with it from going right back to killing each other is that by your definition fantastically successful?Tom from Calgaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09256590456781463880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-84147126341350518662009-10-21T08:26:18.540-07:002009-10-21T08:26:18.540-07:00I posted this particular blog article link on my m...I posted this particular blog article link on my military school forum thinking that the uber conservative folks on the forum would appreciate the article.<br /><br />Nope, all they can do is deflect and talk about how liberal the articles are, that they are so untrue, and then they go into 'the world is going to hell' rant. the normal response I tend to get when I post liberal logic. Some thangs have not changed over the last several decades.farouthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14680359648573550180noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-51802248498269916432009-10-19T17:27:51.968-07:002009-10-19T17:27:51.968-07:00On to next posting!On to next posting!David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-58417113654168433782009-10-19T14:27:51.807-07:002009-10-19T14:27:51.807-07:00The political cost of intentionally abandoning a s...The political cost of intentionally abandoning a section of Afghanistan is pretty high. When insurgants can take and hold, for instance, a provincial capital, they gain credibility. Gulf donors, potential recruits etc notice this. And in a YouTube world it takes very little substance to look successful.<br /><br />As to laser or even artillery based interdiction aeries? Dien Bien Phu redux.<br /><br />As a good conservative I am loathe to critize the foreign policy of my president, but I think we would all be happier if he would elucidate it stongly and soon. This fussing about until a fully legitimate govenment stands in Kabul is wasting some precious time. Heck, sez the Taliban, just keep destabilizing whoever gets elected.<br /><br />In Obama's favor I will say that his standing in the Muslim world could help deter at least donors, if not jihadi. And that the rock star popularity that makes Americans a little queasy really ought to translate to a few more european troops....<br /><br />In fact, if you are cold hearted enough to set aside the very real human cost, it is beneficial for smaller countries to have their military involved. Just as excessive use of your army erodes it from overuse, avoiding all possible combat tends to rot an army from within. At least they should be, and mostly are, sending their special forces over. To their considerable benefit as regards combat experience.<br /><br />But lets not ever forget that human cost in these philosophical maunderings.<br /><br />Tacitus2Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-80882956734492302732009-10-19T12:52:58.706-07:002009-10-19T12:52:58.706-07:00Hmmmm
Sounds good but I'm drawn to the experi...Hmmmm<br /><br />Sounds good but I'm drawn to the experience across the border. When the taliban first took swat, they were welcomed by the people. Then the beheading and blowing up of girl's schools began. The infamous video of that teenage girl being flogged while being held down by taliban goons sent a wave of revulsion through Pakistan.<br /><br />When the Pakistani military went in, the mission was hugely popular. The people of swat were glad to be rid of the very people they had initially welcomed.<br /><br />So far so good. All this makes the plan you propose promising.<br /><br />But look at Pakistan now. Well over a 150 have been killed in the last two weeks by terrorist attacks. Even the very heart of the Pakistani military in Rawalpindi isn't immune.<br /><br />Pakistan gave the taliban what they wanted in swat, but the taliban reneged on the deal and have launched one viscious attack after another. I'm not convinced these people can be contained. They'll break any deal you sign with them and spread chaos and insecurity every chance they get.<br /><br />In short, the taliban have proven in swat, and when they had most of Afghanistan before 2002, that they have no plan/ability to govern, but they are no less a force because of it. They will never allow anyone a breather for development and will break any deal they may have signed saying otherwise.<br /><br />Oh, and one other thing. How to counter the colonialism narrative? The one that says this is just another example of the big bad west pursuing its colonial interests. The taliban may be a nasty bunch but they're fighting invading foreigners so they're not all bad. The Americans want Afghanistan just so that they can build a large gas pipeline from the Caspian Sea to the Persian Gulf. etc.socnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-80190299228085015892009-10-19T11:35:46.985-07:002009-10-19T11:35:46.985-07:00Advantages include: proving yet again that they ha...Advantages include: proving yet again that they have no plan/ability to actually govern, allowing all NON-Pashtunistan parts to have a breather in which to develop, drawing foes out of the passes (which they must hand over to get Kandahar), accentuating the Pashtuni nature of the insurgency, and getting large numbers to cluster and fight in the open.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-56334688241724870962009-10-19T09:22:46.598-07:002009-10-19T09:22:46.598-07:00Maybe I'm a bit slow, but I still don't se...Maybe I'm a bit slow, but I still don't see what the end game would be. You give the Taliban their own quasi-state (like Pakistan did in SWAT). At some point the Taliban resume violence (like in Pakistan) and a massive military operation is launched against them. The military wins, they take the field and the taliban scatter, returning to a guerilla war.<br /><br />What next?socnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-17625750412807707212009-10-19T07:21:26.223-07:002009-10-19T07:21:26.223-07:00Coincidentally ran across this on Debategraph...
...Coincidentally ran across this on Debategraph...<br /><br /><a href="http://debategraph.org/Stream.aspx?nID=33808&sd=y&id=7051E642-7D6B-467D-8001-36540C037E16" rel="nofollow">Let Taliban take over Kandahar and parts of Pashtunistan</a><br /><br />Whichever variation of such an approach one takes... it seems there's some wisdom in getting them to fall into the trap we may have fallen into...<br /><br />That is... let 'em bite of more than they can chew and then help 'em <i>choke on it!</i>Tom Crowlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04444476865484424912noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-56043401441983437652009-10-18T21:27:07.610-07:002009-10-18T21:27:07.610-07:00By all mans, tell this to the women and children o...By all mans, tell this to the women and children of Sarajevo, Jace, Prizren, Skopje, who now see no difference between their peaceful lives and rebuilt schools and the way things were, when we intervened. <br /><br />WIth all the former components of Yugoslavia working like mad (and yes, even the Serbs) to please bureaucrats from Strasbourg, modernizing and conforming laws to meet EU standards so that they can JOIN the EU... and three of the republics already having succeeded at the process of accession -- and with all the young people (yes, even Serbs) wanting ONE THING: an EU passport -- Your entire argument dissolves into:<br /><br /> "there are still some rough problems to resolve, and because of that, nothing CAN be done, and I refuse to even let my blinkered gaze notice what HAS been done. I'll just spout about things I know nothing about. <br /><br />Your entire argument is "I'll bet it'll go to hell again!" Fine... you'll get to yatter if that happens. Problem is, you'll duck for cover if proved wrong.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-87490172665553629762009-10-18T20:53:55.243-07:002009-10-18T20:53:55.243-07:00Just as a point of note Dr. Brin you really may wa...Just as a point of note Dr. Brin you really may want to re-examine your assertion that the Balkans intervention was "fantastically successful".<br /><br />It has been anything but to date in terms of building functioning civil society. <br /><br />The only thing accomplished might be politely described as kicking the can down the road a decade or two.<br /><br />Going on two decades later there are still tens of thousands of troops stationed there, Bosnia will most likely come apart at the seams violently at some point in the next few years yet again, Kosovo is so far from being a functional state it's not even funny and with the Russians being back in the saddle again and trying to make a point that they're still a superpower you can safely expect the Serbs to start getting pushy as well in some of the territories bordering Serbia.<br /><br />Out of sight out of mind does not make things fantastically successful. Give it under a decade and they'll most likely be knee deep in blood again. Faster if the EU decides it can't afford to keep footing the bill for what's effectively a wholly owned satrap in Kosovo.Tom from Calgaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09256590456781463880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-15571603304860758652009-10-18T05:49:22.815-07:002009-10-18T05:49:22.815-07:00OK, here's my take 2 (point about the chorus b...OK, here's my take 2 (point about the chorus btw):<br /><br /><i>Mine eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the Lord.<br />He is sweeping out the foxholes where the gripes and rants get gnawed.<br />He hath shone a fateful light on every false and righteous word,<br />His truth is marching on.</i><br /><br />Hmmm! Aren't (blinding) lasers banned by UN regulations? (Never mind the effect of some poor sod's clothes spontaneously combusting, there is the thicket of mens' laws to weave through)<br /><br />entedda: a counter-hijack operation executed by an elite force of stuffed toys.Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-54011739134802117222009-10-17T23:48:12.405-07:002009-10-17T23:48:12.405-07:00Dr. Brin must be joking about the laser blimps, si...Dr. Brin must be joking about the laser blimps, since he hasn't bothered to respond to the problem Western military technology has had in fighting irregulars since Vietnam: intel.<br /><br />Laser blimps or Marines on the ground have the same problem:<i> is the dark-skinned man walking across the desert an evil communist seeking to sap your precious bodily fluids, or your comrade-in-arms seeking to hunt the same?</i><br /><br />We never solved that problem in Vietnam, and it wasn't because we couldn't kill enough nonwhite people. The issue is not whether one is a rightwing SF fanboy or a limpwristed Liberace impersonator; the issue is the simple fact that the proposed weapon system simply creates more recruits for the badguys faster. Acting like the Russians <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124986154654218153.html#articleTabs%3Darticle" rel="nofollow"> is no way to win in Afghanistan.</a> <br /><br />Certainly the Taliban have an evil policy toward women, and granted that Dr. Brin agrees with Thom Hartmann that the feminization of politics and policy is necessary for passing the Threshold to a sustainable planet; it does not follow logically that turning the Taliban into feminists is the most urgent problem before us. One really interested in improving the status of women through force might divert those drones futilely seeking to distinguish good Afghans from bad Afghans to Darfur. Or to Saudi Arabia, where women are beheaded for complaining about being raped.<br /><br />As for <i>"killing them over there so the don't kill us over here" </i>... one might ask how an Afghan who doesn't realize that the world is round will be able to get through Customs at La Guardia? How many Afghans attacked us on 9/11 anyway?rewinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14008105385364113371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-69510730636789915082009-10-17T21:36:25.891-07:002009-10-17T21:36:25.891-07:00Soc,
Not quite; try this modification:
David Bri...Soc,<br /><br />Not quite; try this modification:<br /><br />David Brin predicted horror in ten thousand Tim McVeighs<br />Wreaking wars of native terror, out to darken all our days<br />They have lost the sight of progress, blind to Reason's holy rays<br />Will right keep marching on?<br /><br />Framed like that, we keep your sentiment, but match the meter of the tune.<br /><br />Even so, though, it doesn't quite match with the pattern of the chorus, and will probably become anachronistic very quickly. And it's more about despair than the song's original call-to-action sense, but that would be quickly corrected by another verse.Rob Perkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15618647194288598056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-74916540040325136982009-10-17T18:57:31.544-07:002009-10-17T18:57:31.544-07:00Man murders couple for being "too liberal&quo...<a href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/10/14/BAL81A4SU0.DTL#ixzz0U6ujyC6b" rel="nofollow">Man murders couple for being "too liberal"</a><br /><br />*sings*<br /><br />Davin Brin predicted 10,000 McVeighs/<br />A war of native terror to darken all our days/<br />Have we lost our future bright with Enlightenments rays?/<br />May right keep marching on!sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-50003042895529260982009-10-17T16:05:03.416-07:002009-10-17T16:05:03.416-07:00Thanks, very much!
But they're doggerel, real...Thanks, very much!<br /><br />But they're doggerel, really; all I was going for was a match of meter and theme. <br /><br />Maybe I'll take a crack at those two other ideas. The tune is a massive earworm for me today.Rob Perkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15618647194288598056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-11429443883085924772009-10-17T13:30:00.805-07:002009-10-17T13:30:00.805-07:00Rob, those two are terrific!
Needed verses that:
...Rob, those two are terrific!<br /><br />Needed verses that:<br /><br />- anger toward those who try to monopolize his name<br /><br />- faith that He cares more about our future than our past, and takes joy as our wisdom and power grows....David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-40341538311393185612009-10-17T12:43:42.971-07:002009-10-17T12:43:42.971-07:00Hmm... 'nuttag'... Peanut washer?
} ; = 8 ...Hmm... 'nuttag'... Peanut washer?<br />} ; = 8 PIlithi Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10300247936272572280noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-26914423269119759612009-10-17T11:13:08.501-07:002009-10-17T11:13:08.501-07:00Rob: Bravo! Encore!
(Oh, great...my word verif...Rob: Bravo! Encore!<br /><br /><br />(Oh, great...my word verification is "nuttag"...)lcnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-41636306939667064782009-10-17T11:11:03.754-07:002009-10-17T11:11:03.754-07:00Very nice, especially the first one.
I can try se...Very nice, especially the first one.<br /><br />I can try setting up a website, though my skills aren't very 'leet, and I won't be able to get started on it for a week or two, because of things going on here. Any ideas/brainstorms for the website?Ilithi Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10300247936272572280noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-35558651755198552492009-10-17T09:45:31.968-07:002009-10-17T09:45:31.968-07:00OK, in my opinion, if you're going to do extra...OK, in my opinion, if you're going to do extra verses of the Battle Hymn correctly, and have a chance to make something that produces a unifying trajectory in the American memespace, then stick to the themes of the song, and leave the first three lines of the chorus to sing the glory glories.<br /><br />Remember, you're singing about What God Is Doing, and you can be as deist or polytheist as you like about it, I think. <br /><br />Like this:<br /><br />He has opened halls of learning to the mind of ev'ry man<br />He has liberated mothers and their daughters, in His Plan<br />He has stoked the fires for freedom in the heart of ev'ry land<br />His Work is marching on!<br /><br />(g-g-h X 3, His Work is marching on!)<br /><br />(and you can substitute "We" for "He" and "Our" for "His" if so desired.)<br /><br />In the past ensuing decades we have learned to enter space<br />We have plumbed the depths of oceans, put diseases in their place<br />We have opened up the civitas to every sex and race!<br />Thus God is marching on!<br /><br />OK, that's just two toss-offs. What do you think?Rob Perkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15618647194288598056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1259485680603357072009-10-17T09:23:06.810-07:002009-10-17T09:23:06.810-07:00Sorry, Tony, I'm pretty sure "John Brown&...Sorry, Tony, I'm pretty sure "John Brown's Body" and the "Battle Hymn" use the same tune. <br /><br />All this sniping means I'm going to have to come up with a verse myself, doesn't it?Rob Perkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15618647194288598056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-58732106872735472242009-10-17T08:16:10.515-07:002009-10-17T08:16:10.515-07:00I'm pretty sure Obama isn't going to pursu...I'm pretty sure Obama isn't going to pursue lasers all that much. He helped cut off that laser plane, after all.sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-73811700405276596252009-10-17T03:24:17.874-07:002009-10-17T03:24:17.874-07:00Rob, if my meter's off, it may be because I...Rob, if my meter's off, it may be because I'm confusing the Battle Hymn with John Brown's body. If so, it serves me right for putting an oar into other people's cultural history!<br /><br />... Ah, wait! The inner wikipedia does match the outer... try matching it to the chorus:<br /><br /><i>(Glory), (glory) (hallelujah)<br />(Wage-war-on-drugs) (while singing) hallelujah/<br />(Sustain-the) (righteous-wrath): (smash every hoo-kah!)/<br />(Don't-think) (about-the) (rush that's surging through ya!)<br />You can withdraw in the morning!</i><br /><br />The ends a bit ropy, and may not be where you want to go.<br /><br />(Avoiding the alliteration trap, what about the goosegogs of rant?)Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-23459810316609990002009-10-16T22:38:35.567-07:002009-10-16T22:38:35.567-07:00The 100kw laser is way overkill for the purposes o...The 100kw laser is way overkill for the purposes of Afgh insurgent interdiction. Far more significant, for dealing with supply trains of mules and infantry winding through a mountain pass, would be:<br /><br />1_ Rapid repeat cycle<br />2_ super-accurate sequential tracking/aiming<br />3_ rugged portability for helicopter placement at high/secure aeries with wide regions of coverage<br /><br />Of course, it is easy for an armchair general to imagine just fifty or a hundred such watch sites being able to surveil and interdict all plausible infiltration paths. In reality, convenient/defensible/suppliable aeries may not be available in all locales. Or line-of-sight problems may multiply the number needed. Hence, blimps would be a cool supplement, but slow to respond. Tethered aerostats would be easier to deploy for wide coverage, but also vulnerable to attack. Other kinds of aircraft cannot loiter permanently.<br /><br />Then there's the public relations problem. People are squeamish about ALL variants on warfare. Using lasers against missiles? Fine. Against human flesh? Even though the wounds are probably cleaner than a bullet, a lot of folks would protest. Especially if even one insurgent were blinded, instead of killed.<br /><br />Am I starting to sound like someone right-of-center, now? A fanboy of military SF? Well, sure. I always avowed to having many slivers of conservative or libertarian traits, mixed into the progressive whole. Indeed, most of my denunciations of the neocons deal with how they have <i>betrayed</i> patriotism, responsibility, prudence, restraint, self-reliance, individualism, professionalism, market-mindedness, sobriety and military readiness. <br /><br />Anyway, those Taliban not only want to kill us and topple western civilization. They want to enslave women, and the liberation of women is the salvation of the world. If they can be stopped under circumstances and in locales where there just aren't any innocent bystanders -- along those mountain trials -- then I say go Pax Americana.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com