tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post4030892069580472700..comments2024-03-27T23:12:08.917-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Republican Salvation...Raise the Gipper!David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger133125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-49325048400934225412012-05-21T19:26:45.589-07:002012-05-21T19:26:45.589-07:00onward!
Please email me at davidbrin@sbcglobal.ne...onward!<br /><br />Please email me at davidbrin@sbcglobal.net<br /><br />if you want to participate in the chat test of my epocene system around 8pm California time!<br /><br /><br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-10910152560847882782012-05-21T18:31:46.849-07:002012-05-21T18:31:46.849-07:00@sociotard: also, 'clients' were a status ...@sociotard: also, 'clients' were a status symbol; possibly even a form of currency. That the wolflings had already uplifted two species on discovery was scandalous enough. To find they had a wealth of other candidates was unacceptable, and further projects (eg dogs) were proscribed. <br /><br />'The Uplift War' covers a plot to wrest chimpanzee patronage from humanity by the Gubru, and includes a clandestine project to uplift gorillas; who end up with the Thenennin. <br /><br />What comes next is up to the author.Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-82194498357615511072012-05-21T18:25:10.556-07:002012-05-21T18:25:10.556-07:00No, Randy. I think a SuperPAC or the Obama campaig...No, Randy. I think a SuperPAC or the Obama campaign itself maintained the info and dropped it into the news cycle through its cutout proxies the moment they needed it. <br /><br />Believing such things don't exist is laughable, to me.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07541997928359883625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-5571173511332499162012-05-21T16:05:43.524-07:002012-05-21T16:05:43.524-07:00@Sociotard - that "Singularity" video wa...@Sociotard - that "Singularity" video was smart and funny, especially smart, but let me point out ... perhaps defensively ... that blaming lawyers for laws is like blaming butchers for meat. They don't make it, they just serve it to paying customers. Reforming our crazy IP laws so that you can sing "Happy Birthday" without paying a fee is a good idea.rewinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14008105385364113371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-11263373524643796032012-05-21T15:52:35.657-07:002012-05-21T15:52:35.657-07:00@Rob - you really think the simplest explanation i...@Rob - you really think the simplest explanation is that the Washington Post maintains a stock of 12-page anti-Romney hit pieces to roll out the day after Obama says something that his opponents don't like?<br /><br />God with God, my brother, and believe as ye will. Yet the underlying facts of the story are true, and would have some out at some point in the news cycle anyway.rewinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14008105385364113371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-74520095851315676902012-05-21T14:29:27.160-07:002012-05-21T14:29:27.160-07:00That's not always a good thing. A recent edito...That's not always a good thing. A recent editorial in "Economist" pointed out that the drop in public companies was reducing investment opportunities for the public and also reducing organizational transparency seeing that private companies are able to hide a lot more than public ones. <br /><br />Of course, I'd say that's a reason why organizational transparency should apply to private companies as well, but that's just me. I find the current system of short-run focus for public companies to be ultimately damaging to both the companies and the economy... but the loss of transparency is a significant risk. Hell, just look at the Brothers Grimm who are backing the Republican Party under an obscuring cloak of ownership and profit.<br /><br />Though there is a simple solution: encode in law that any company that donates money to PACs has to reveal its parent organization and subsidiaries, profits, supply chains, and basically everything that reveals what its interests truly are. If a company does not want to lose its privacy? It doesn't have to spend money on PACs. Thus corporate privacy is upheld... while companies that wish to meddle in politics are upheld to the light of public scrutiny.<br /><br />Rob H.Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36942584102184975972012-05-21T14:22:30.152-07:002012-05-21T14:22:30.152-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-51919820712791596402012-05-21T14:22:19.290-07:002012-05-21T14:22:19.290-07:00Ah. Perhaps we had to get a bunch of forms filled ...Ah. Perhaps we had to get a bunch of forms filled out and reviewed before multiple bureaucracies over the course of a hundred years before we could get started on the next client species.sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-65097258573585247152012-05-21T13:26:24.353-07:002012-05-21T13:26:24.353-07:00sociotard,
Earthclan should probably be viewed as...sociotard,<br /><br />Earthclan should probably be viewed as an outlier. We did the uplift thing BEFORE being introduced to Galactic civilization, so maybe didn't follow all the rules and conventions and such.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-47612190985221066232012-05-21T12:34:44.595-07:002012-05-21T12:34:44.595-07:00I don't recall if you ever answered this quest...I don't recall if you ever answered this question, Dr. Brin: In the Uplift series, how different did species have to be before they counted for uplift purposes. I mean, lots of species of parrot are pretty close in intelligence, as are Corvids. Several species of Dolphin, and other Cetaceans . . .<br /><br />And yet earthclan just had the two client species.sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-40612494227179394902012-05-21T12:31:30.394-07:002012-05-21T12:31:30.394-07:00Then I'll buy it for the Octopus alone. If th...Then I'll buy it for the Octopus alone. If the parrots sing and call themselves the Three Caballeros I will be very happy.sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-52097023922722733102012-05-21T12:06:22.321-07:002012-05-21T12:06:22.321-07:00Sociotard... there is a parrot! Actually.... thre...Sociotard... there is a parrot! Actually.... three different ones!<br /><br />And an octopus.... ;-)David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-57272035752134548042012-05-21T11:37:26.293-07:002012-05-21T11:37:26.293-07:00Only one of you signed on to enter a joint chat on...Only one of you signed on to enter a joint chat on my epocene demo tonight, so we canceled.<br /><br />Email me at davdbrin@sbcglobal.net<br /><br />if interested in participating Monday evening (California time).<br /><br />meanwhile...David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-69476642178564874942012-05-21T11:14:00.386-07:002012-05-21T11:14:00.386-07:00Paul451:
Re: Greece and the Euro...
Travc's c...Paul451:<br /><i><br />Re: Greece and the Euro...<br />Travc's comment about how Greece would have responded to the GFC if they weren't in the Euro made me want to ask a proper grown-up economist... If Greece was still on the Drachma, then most of its government (and a hell of a lot of private) debt would also be payable in Drachma. The crisis would result in a devaluation of the Drachma (assuming it's floated, or the government isn't stupid), and thus an effective reduction in the size of debt (WRT lender currencies). However, lenders would have anticipated that, so the Greek government would still be facing high interest rates. yes? Would the situation be better or worse?<br /></i><br />My understanding from Paul Krugman and Thom Hartmann is that if Greece were not in the Euro zone, they could not have borrowed nearly the funds that they did. The fact that their debt is in Euros created excessive confidence which, since 2008, seems to have been misguided.<br /><br />Taking that a step further, Thom Hartmann claims that Greece's financial position wasn't sound enough to qualify for Euro entry to begin with, so investment banks (he speaks of Goldman Sachs in particular) did some fancy credit swaps, "lending" them money off books in much the way you might have had your mother-in-law loan you funds for a down payment but she had to sign a gift letter asserting to the bank that the money wasn't owed back to her. In this way, Greece's books were made to look cleaner than they were. Otherwise, they wouldn't have been allowed into the Eurozone at all.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-26467540759902047842012-05-21T09:58:24.213-07:002012-05-21T09:58:24.213-07:00The trailer mentioned there will be uplifted anima...The trailer mentioned there will be uplifted animals in Existence. Any chance we'll see Corvids or Parrots? I thought this article on Crows was pretty cool:<br /><a href="http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2010/04/clever-crows-complex-cognition.html" rel="nofollow">http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2010/04/clever-crows-complex-cognition.html</a>sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-23148519316588779932012-05-21T09:54:52.850-07:002012-05-21T09:54:52.850-07:00Ian,
Re: State owned utilities.
You misunderstand....Ian,<br />Re: State owned utilities.<br />You misunderstand. I meant if the alt.power boom was driven by government subsidies, as seems to be the case, it was not a natural result of competition between privately owned utilities. There is nothing to prevent a government from deciding to do the same thing merely because its utilities are state owned. Indeed, it may be easier to provide those subsidies directly through the state utility. It may choose not to, as in Greece's case, but the state-ownership of utilities in and of itself did not and cannot prevent a government from making the same decision about a subsidy as any other government. Likewise, any political decision based on, say, lobbying by unions over lost mining jobs would have been the same.<br /><br />Re: Greece and the Euro.<br />Travc's comment about how Greece would have responded to the GFC if they weren't in the Euro made me want to ask a proper grown-up economist... If Greece was still on the Drachma, then most of its government (and a hell of a lot of private) debt would also be payable in Drachma. The crisis would result in a devaluation of the Drachma (assuming it's floated, or the government isn't stupid), and thus an effective reduction in the size of debt (WRT lender currencies). However, lenders would have anticipated that, so the Greek government would still be facing high interest rates. yes? Would the situation be better or worse?Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-75974459298884807222012-05-21T09:50:14.063-07:002012-05-21T09:50:14.063-07:00Ian,
Re: Argentina and Krugman.
The article you li...Ian,<br />Re: Argentina and Krugman.<br />The article you link to seems to be a minor quibble over not crediting external effects:<br /><br /><i>"On one thing I agree with Krugman, Weisbrot and others: this option will offer the Greeks better growth prospects than the austerity measures imposed by the Troika (which will only deepen the underlying problem). However, rapid economic growth following the default is not a foregone conclusion."</i> is hardly screaming that they're "fucking insane", as your friend did. It's not even disagreeing with the prescription, just saying that the growth might be less than achieved by Argentina. The choice for Greece is still zero or negative growth under austerity, or early default leading to growth, but at levels that learned-men are debating.<br /><br />Likewise, <i>"High unemployment and spare industrial capacity meant that fiscal and monetary expansion had limited inflationary impact in the early years, thus promoting consumption even further."</i> is exactly the sort of thing that Krugman says when he attacks inflation fear-mongering.<br /><br />Speaking of minor quibbles:<br /><br />On modelling the resource boom: <i>"In fact, it explains between one third and two thirds of the cumulative growth attained between 2003 and 2009!"</i><br /><br />A 100% margin of error? That's not exactly high confidence. (And nothing with a 100% margin of error is "in fact".)<br /><br />(ifiiff: If and only if I'd only iff'd.)Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-91830633480354958642012-05-21T09:48:51.360-07:002012-05-21T09:48:51.360-07:00@rewinn -- Occam's Razor is for describing nat...@rewinn -- Occam's Razor is for describing natural phenomena, not something with the intentional complexity of an election news cycle. <br /><br />Or, if you want, Occam's Razor sets free the explanation: "They had it ready in advance." It's the simplest one, given the opposition research known to be already in place.Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07541997928359883625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-63479311352195976282012-05-21T09:22:19.418-07:002012-05-21T09:22:19.418-07:00Another Orwell quote from the same essay which, wi...Another Orwell quote from the same essay which, with startilingly few changes, could have been written by Dr Brin in the present time:<br /><i><br />It is clear that the special position of the English intellectuals during the past ten years, as purely NEGATIVE creatures, mere anti-Blimps, was a by-product of ruling-class stupidity. Society could not use them, and they had not got it in them to see that devotion to one's country implies 'for better, for worse'. Both Blimps and highbrows took for granted, as though it were a law of nature, the divorce between patriotism and intelligence. If you were a patriot you read BLACKWOOD'S MAGAZINE and publicly thanked God that you were 'not brainy'. If you were an intellectual you sniggered at the Union Jack and regarded physical courage as barbarous. It is obvious that this preposterous convention cannot continue. The Bloomsbury highbrow, with his mechanical snigger, is <br />as out-of-date as the cavalry colonel. A modern nation cannot afford either of them. Patriotism and intelligence will have to come together again. It is the fact that we are fighting a war, and a very peculiar kind of war, that may make this possible. <br /></i>LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-46569591568931949722012-05-21T09:02:20.514-07:002012-05-21T09:02:20.514-07:00I've been reading Orwell's "The Lion ...I've been reading Orwell's "The Lion and the Unicorn" essay much of the morning, and I strongly second the recommendation.<br /><br />I find it fascinating how much of what Orwell wrote about wartime Britain seems torn from today's headlines in 21st Century America:<br /><br /><i><br />...<br />It should be noted that there is now no intelligentsia that is not in some sense 'left'. Perhaps the last right-wing intellectual was T. E. Lawrence. Since about 1930 everyone describable as an 'intellectual' has <br />lived in a state of chronic discontent with the existing order. Necessarily so, because society as it was constituted had no room for him. In an Empire that was simply stagnant, neither being developed nor falling to pieces, and in an England ruled by people whose chief asset was their stupidity, to be 'clever' was to be suspect. If you had the <br />kind of brain that could understand the poems of T. S. Eliot or the theories of Karl Marx, the higher-ups would see to it that you were kept out of any important job. The intellectuals could find a function for <br />themselves only in the literary reviews and the left-wing political parties. <br />...<br /></i><br /><br />http://www.george-orwell.org/The_Lion_and_the_Unicorn:_Socialism_And_The_English_Genius/0.html<br /><br />http://www.george-orwell.org/<br />The_Lion_and_the_Unicorn:_Socialism_And_The_English_Genius/<br />0.htmlLarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-4476793423656590682012-05-21T08:25:33.677-07:002012-05-21T08:25:33.677-07:00The Singularity, ruined by Lawyers<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=IFe9wiDfb0E" rel="nofollow">The Singularity, ruined by Lawyers</a>sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-91489649766578415432012-05-21T05:47:52.338-07:002012-05-21T05:47:52.338-07:00And here's a relatively short-term idea that w...And here's a relatively short-term idea that would make a huge difference not just to Greece but to the whole Eurozone: EU bonds jointly guaranteed by all the Eurozone member states.<br /><br />http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/21/us-eurozone-idUSBRE84K0JI20120521<br /><br />TravC, as far as the short-term is concerned: Greece needs to drasticly reduce its government deficit and the various pending EU aid packages need to be delivered as quickly as possible.<br /><br />As for the current situation being the worst imaginable, ignore Argentina which had already undertaken severe austerity measures, was running a primary surplus and had a current accoutn surplus and take a look at what happeend to the South East Asain countries in the Asian fianncial Crisis.<br /><br />Try telling people who went through an 80% fall in GDP; 1,000% inflation, and 65% per annum interest rates that Greece is sufferign the wrost case scenario.Ian Gouldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07666385933765478081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-89342857785601698302012-05-21T05:10:53.365-07:002012-05-21T05:10:53.365-07:00TravC , as you pointed out, the EU has a single mo...TravC , as you pointed out, the EU has a single monnetary polcy, so how is Greece going to engineer a deflation.<br /><br />Additionally, deflation would reduce nominal Greek incomes and GDP while increasing the real value of Greek debt.<br /><br />What Greece really needs is moderately higher Eurozone inflation to reduce the real value of their debt.Ian Gouldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07666385933765478081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-66852301550555248362012-05-21T02:38:45.620-07:002012-05-21T02:38:45.620-07:00Hypnos...
Do you think Japan is getting anywhere c...Hypnos...<br />Do you think Japan is getting anywhere close to being a no-growth but stable economy?<br />They certainly have demographic challenges, but the "lost decade" that gets derided by so many (especially economists) doesn't actually seem to be such a bad thing from a standard-of-living standpoint.<br /><br />BTW: The growth rate of Japan at the moment is relatively high... lots of activity rebuilding from the earthquake and tsunami.Travchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12790548845692414891noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-64552936173135478622012-05-21T02:29:13.401-07:002012-05-21T02:29:13.401-07:00Re Greece and economics generally...
It seems to ...Re Greece and economics generally...<br /><br />It seems to me that Ian, Hypnos, and I are focusing on different timescales. I've been thinking mostly in the short-term since crisis is basically here now. Ian's focus on the need for structural reforms, which I have no fundamental argument with, is what I'd consider mid to long-term. Hypnos's concern with resource constraints is on mark only in the long to very-long-term IMO.<br /><br />What is particularly interesting is that none of these time horizons are strict... For example, some structural reforms can have some good short-term impacts, while not addressing the existing economic pain makes things worse in the mid-term too.<br /><br />As for PK's prescription for Greece... It is a no-good-choice situation. If not for being on the Euro, Greece could have devalued its currency and undergone some survivable (but unpleasant) short-term pain. If coupled with sensible reforms, they could come out of it fairly quickly and be better off in the future (timing of reforms matters of course, many would not be 'now', but are needed in the near future). Sadly, this is not an option open to Greece (or any other troubled Euro country).<br /><br />A distant second best would be for relative deflation to take the place of devaluation... but how this takes place matters a lot. Actual deflation is very hard to do in a controlled fashion and very disruptive. So it would be far better if Greece could just have a very low rate of inflation while its creditors and trading partners experienced slightly higher than normal inflation. However, this means that those creditors and trading partners would suffer some pain (and loss of real money in the case of creditors) , but there is a quite compelling argument (IMO) that this would be a net benefit to them anyway in the same way that a loan adjustment is better than a foreclosure for both a troubled homeowner and a bank.<br /><br />The course that is currently being taken is nearly the worst I can think of. At very best, it will take Greece a very long time (and most probably many more emergency bailouts) to adjust their price and wage levels relative to the core.Travchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12790548845692414891noreply@blogger.com