tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post3991147711276769307..comments2024-03-28T20:50:49.311-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: New in Science & TechDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger87125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-51136992795902415182020-03-14T16:28:16.442-07:002020-03-14T16:28:16.442-07:00onward
onwardonward<br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-31775072527153702112020-03-14T09:30:06.251-07:002020-03-14T09:30:06.251-07:00"If COVID-19 puts Nancy Pelosi in the Oval Of..."If COVID-19 puts Nancy Pelosi in the Oval Office in the next few weeks, I might actually get religion." <br />Or else our autocorrect finally kicked in.<br /><br />Most agree the Stock Market had already been way overpriced. But usually stocks & bonds go opposite directions. Not now, suggesting another damn liquidity crisis.<br /><br />Tim H. Thanks for the link. I'll now cough it around.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-13283189126200894442020-03-14T09:04:16.544-07:002020-03-14T09:04:16.544-07:00 A profane, sarcastic and accurate video on COVID-... A profane, sarcastic and accurate video on COVID-19:<br />https://youtu.be/Hks6Nq7g6P4<br /><br />Tim H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12380916635831994159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-23809653860944768822020-03-14T09:02:34.806-07:002020-03-14T09:02:34.806-07:00Random thoughts:
RE: Government response in 2009 ...Random thoughts:<br /><br />RE: Government response in 2009 to the Swine flu, this is how the Obama Administration responded:<br /><br />From CNN: <i>"The CDC's summary report of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic outlines how tests were administered at the time. The virus was first detected in the US on April 15. The CDC informed the World Health Organization about initial cases April 18. A test to detect this strain of swine flu was developed by the CDC and cleared for use 10 days later, on April 28, and the CDC began shipping tests across the US and around the world on May 1.<br /><br />Within the next four months, more than 1 million tests "were shipped to 120 domestic and 250 international laboratories in 140 countries," according to the CDC's report."</i><br /><br />It still took months to ramp up production of test kits, but TWO WEEKS from detection to the creation of a test kit. <br /><br />RE: Universal Heath Care. I'm all for it, but it is not a panacea. We still would not have enough doctors, nurses, hospital beds, etc. But at least no one would go bankrupt.<br /><br />RE: Stock Market Crash. (Slump, correction, whatever you call it.) I don't blame Trump for this. Trade worldwide is taking a BIG hit. Other countries are being effected much worse than the U.S. (So far). And the Russia-Saudia Arabia petrol war is killing the energy markets. While Trump certainly could have made other moves than he has, and more quickly, most of these factors are beyond his control.<br /><br />RE: Larry saying <i>"It seems pretty clear that transgender people are the new Jews."</i> Don't worry, the old Jews are still the Jews too. ;)<br /><br />RE: Trump supporters now seeing his incompetence. HA. I literally LOL'd at that one. Trump has made some moves. Barring plague-level death tolls, Trump took some action. Therefore it was the right action. Therefore, he saved us and is a hero. Much like "Reagan won the Cold War", you will never convince them otherwise.<br /><br /><br />Smurphshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00539117423893094607noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-62279940663283534292020-03-14T05:48:53.720-07:002020-03-14T05:48:53.720-07:00Who could have possibly guessed? ...
https://www....Who could have possibly guessed? ...<br /><br />https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/opinion/trump-coronavirus-emergency.html<br /><i><br />...<br />Millions of Trump’s supporters aren’t blind to the president’s clownishness and ignorance. But they’ve been relatively indifferent to both, because they find the first entertaining and the second irrelevant to his overall performance. Who cares what a president knows about epidemiology, so long as the markets are up?<br /><br />They care now. The coronavirus has exposed the falsehood of so many notions Trump’s base holds about the presidency: that experts are unnecessary; that hunches are a substitute for knowledge; that competence in administration is overrated; that every criticism is a hoax; and that everything that happens in Washington is B.S. Above all, it has devastated the conceit that having an epic narcissist in the White House is a riskless proposition at a time of extreme risk.<br />...<br /></i>Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-40388782593230697672020-03-14T05:32:01.238-07:002020-03-14T05:32:01.238-07:00Dr Brin:
I don't disagree with a single thing...Dr Brin:<br /><i><br />I don't disagree with a single thing you just said Acacia. I think your relatively vulnerable clade WILL suffer terribly under a Mafia-Confederate-Nazi regime!<br /></i><br /><br />It seems pretty clear that transgender people are the new Jews. Hitler made outright anti-Semitism unfashionable for two generations such that even today's anti-Semites have to be supportive of Israel and hate Muslims worse (as opposed to the mocking Nazi German protestation that "I'm not anti-Semitic. ((Comic pause)) I like Arabs quite a bit.") Transgender people are a small enough clade that it's probably not the case that "Everybody knows one", so the haters can openly hate them without incurring the opprobrium of polite society.<br /><br />German Naziism wasn't necessarily <b>about</b> Jew-hatred either, but that didn't make it any less dangerous for the Jews. The same is the case for those who are attacked by today's Brownshirts.<br /><br /><i><br />Alfred I agree that IF COVID is what it seems... if getting it and surviving imbues genuine immunity and non-carrier status<br /></i><br /><br />I know we don't yet have all the real facts, but I've read of examples which belie both of those assumptions. <i>Caveat emptor</i><br /><br />BTW, while Bill Maher did have a show last night, it came the closest I've ever seen (even after 9/11) to the host questioning whether there are times when comedy isn't appropriate. The laughs were less about biting wit and more about the audience sharing one last <i>auld lange syne</i> together.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-47498074886270571002020-03-14T04:45:54.765-07:002020-03-14T04:45:54.765-07:00...so it is possible there is a liquidity problem ......so it is possible there is a liquidity problem happening in one or both.<br />...and intends to make it vanish again at some point in the near future.<br />...we re-scale the value of everything measured in USD and call it inflation.<br />...it draws companies into IPO’s and all that comes from being publicly traded.<br /><br />Alfred. Exactly THIS handweaving is what makes so-called financial bubbles.<br />Well, to say truth... that bubbles is still better then overproduction depressions of old times and/or denomination/pricecuts of Soviets...<br />but we should be inventing something better by now... in 21st century.<br />But what we have? Freakanomics? :)))Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-67992831394020379602020-03-14T03:54:44.994-07:002020-03-14T03:54:44.994-07:00Weirdly enough, the coronavirus outbreak feels to ...Weirdly enough, the coronavirus outbreak feels to me like an Old Testament plague, sent by a wrathful deity to humble the Pharaoh. There's nothing better for destroying a dictator than undeniable proof, proof even his sycophants can't ignore, that he should not be in charge of anything more complicated than a mop.<br /><br />For the record, I'd really kinda like to die of old age in my own bed. If Trump holds power next year, I expect I will perish in combat with other Americans. So I am not a splitter and will support Biden if he is the nominee, as will Bernie himself.<br /><br />Incidentally, I've seen hints that Sanders and Biden plan to rough each other up in the next debate, but not too much, and then herd their supporters toward a grand reconciliation. I agree with what Alfred said up there, if this crisis doesn't make universal healthcare happen, it never will. But even that is not as important as the Earth's ecosystem; we won't go to the stars if the fact professions are neutered, and we also won't go to the stars if our home collapses before we can get a good start. If we are lucky enough to get a Democratic government again, that government will have to be willing to make some very powerful, wealthy and destructive people and corporations very, very unhappy. (Lookin' at Big Oil and their methane-leaking fracking operations, among many others).<br /><br />If COVID-19 puts Nancy Pelosi in the Oval Office in the next few weeks, I might actually get religion.TCBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08153506222271955110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36685094257532870932020-03-14T01:05:43.372-07:002020-03-14T01:05:43.372-07:00If covid19 does any of those nastier things (carri...If covid19 does any of those nastier things (carrier status, fast mutate, high death rate) we probably won't know until it's obvious. No competent administration would have invented tests for any of those early enough to matter. Tests for detecting this particular variety would be damn useful, but... and this is a big one... those tests have to be pretty good in terms of small false results. Even a moderate percentage failure rate could do more damage than our current ignorance IF everyone is getting tested. (Just imagine what a 1% failure rate for HIV detection would do to relationships if 150 million of us are tested. You KNOW that data wouldn't stay secret.)<br /><br />I get the temptation of imagine the possibilities, but I encourage you to keep on the speculation side and not drift into fantasy. Keep in mind that germ-blind approaches to epidemiology helped our civilization get a handle on some really killer bugs early buying time for innovative minds to invent germ theory. Simple stuff like soap, informed hope, and statistics got us a long way… and we have so much more now.<br /><br />My reflex is to imagine the dark depths at night and bright opportunities during the day. I was poking around Twitter earlier today noticing some medical folks asking about supplies they desperately needed for certain kits and others responding with alternate vendors and their SKU’s that would do the job. Crowd-sourcing supply chains? Just-In-Time Innovation? At night I’ll likely think they can’t get enough done to help much. During the day I suspect I’m seeing Enlightenment Civilization flex its new muscles with no central control brain required.<br /><br />We shall see.<br />Well... some of us will.<br />Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-40360612330201744812020-03-14T00:37:52.847-07:002020-03-14T00:37:52.847-07:00Jacinda has just announced that all visitor from a...Jacinda has just announced that all visitor from abroad including NZ citizens must self isolate for 14 days<br /><br />Damn that woman is impressing meduncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-90257994239793711352020-03-13T23:17:02.865-07:002020-03-13T23:17:02.865-07:00I don't disagree with a single thing you just ...I don't disagree with a single thing you just said Acacia. I think your relatively vulnerable clade WILL suffer terribly under a Mafia-Confederate-Nazi regime! I said as much. But we agree the oligarch controllers will do so in order to offer dog-bones to the real racist-sexists, down in the mob far below. As Mark Twain said... the lowest white man will fight for his own class oppressors, if you give him a black man to kick around.<br /><br />Alfred I agree that IF COVID is what it seems... if getting it and surviving imbues genuine immunity and non-carrier status and hospitalization/death rates stay at 5% or lower and vaccines come that can improve all that much as flu vaccines have... and there's nothing hidden... then civilization will go on amid some tragedy and civilization will deal with a major wake-up call.<br /><br />At this point... with science fictional reflexive imagination... I call that a major "if."David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-55155047966168304252020-03-13T22:27:46.556-07:002020-03-13T22:27:46.556-07:00Perhaps, Dr. Brin. But my views that the Trump Adm...Perhaps, Dr. Brin. But my views that the Trump Administration would go after transgender people <a href="https://transequality.org/the-discrimination-administration" rel="nofollow">is based on its actions to date</a> which include, on August 16, 2019, a Justice Dept. filing with the Supreme Court that federal law “does not prohibit discrimination against transgender persons based on their transgender status.” Also on May 24, 2019, the Department of Health and Human Services published a proposed rule that would remove all recognition that federal law prohibits transgender patients from discrimination in health care. <br /><br />Transgender people are an easy target for Trump. By going after us, Trump gives his base some of what the masses think they want. If he gets a second term in office, he will continue his war on transgender people. I would be safer in another nation than in the U.S. under Trump. People like Jim who insist Trump is better than Biden are a threat to my liberty and possibly my life. <br /><br />AcaciaAcacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-39186590093118395032020-03-13T21:49:03.622-07:002020-03-13T21:49:03.622-07:00On a less important, almost technical note… people...On a less important, almost technical note… people should not confuse the bond and equity markets. The bond market is MUCH bigger and where most of the wealthiest people have their money. The equity markets really aren’t big enough* to soak up what the rich could throw into them, if they were inclined to take that kind of risk. <br /><br />This matters because injecting money into the bond market is not the same as injecting it into the stock market. In normal times, their movements anti-correlate. That’s not what is happening now which suggests something big (and hidden) is going on. On days when people are interested in risk, stock markets generally rise and bond markets fall. The reverse happens on cloudy mood days. At present, they are moving together (at least some of the time), so it is possible there is a liquidity problem happening in one or both. When people HAVE to sell in one, it might be because of their position in the other switching anti-correlation to correlation.<br /><br />Either way, the amount of money moving between risk-on and risk-off days is a small fraction of bond assets. Injecting liquidity into bonds in an amount of roughly that scale MIGHT break the correlation. That’s the idea, anyway. We shall see.<br /><br />As for $1.5T injection being paid for already, that is laughable. Bonds are debt instruments. All that happened is the government invented $1.5T out of thin air (one hand owes the other hand) and intends to make it vanish again at some point in the near future. If they are squeamish about making it vanish (happens occasionally), we re-scale the value of everything measured in USD and call it inflation.<br /><br />*There is a reasonable argument to be made that the inflow of cash from 401K’s and their cousins in the US is responsible for a good chunk of the long term upward trend in the value of equities. If so, broad index funds are essentially bets that we continue putting our retirement money into a market that isn’t quite big enough to absorb it all. As a result, it draws companies into IPO’s and all that comes from being publicly traded.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-62767427735735042372020-03-13T21:29:55.861-07:002020-03-13T21:29:55.861-07:00Tim,
I’m mildly optimistic about the virus for a ...Tim,<br /><br />I’m mildly optimistic about the virus for a similar reason. It does look like people are beginning to take this seriously down at the grass roots level. At this stage, I think that will be more effective than the knowledge we’d gain from all the testing we really SHOULD be able to do. Ideally… as we’d approximate in a nation run by competent people… we’d have both.<br /><br />What stunning malfeasance is going to produce is (likely) a higher death toll… and something far worse. To get this behavior change required by our unnecessary ignorance, we are stopping large segments of the economy. Not slowing. Stopping as in Gapping. We SHALL adapt, but the disruption this causes will echo for many years. Some things won’t restart. Some people won’t be there for health reasons (dead or injured) and many more for economic reasons (bankruptcy or abandoned plans). The meltdown in 2008 did this kind of economic damage that is still evident… especially in voting patterns. You know that last part, though, because you’ve described the attitude of some of your neighbors.<br /><br />Some of what is coming at us could have been avoided by competent leadership. For example, if the Progressives get universal health care, it will likely be as a result of this incompetent administration’s response to this crisis. No matter what it costs, it is more likely now than ever BECAUSE of the variety of damage that will be done. Not just deaths. Depleted bank accounts, lost income, failed dreams, elderly survivors injured and dependent on family members… you name it. <br /><br />There is a political @#$@storm coming right behind the viral one. I’m mildly optimistic that we are addressing the viral one, but it looks like we are doing so in a manner that will have huge consequences afterward.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-52146391926163139232020-03-13T21:14:34.893-07:002020-03-13T21:14:34.893-07:00Acacia, while I agree with your overall attitude, ...Acacia, while I agree with your overall attitude, and I agree that any retention of any kinf of power by the undead Republican Party will be a calamity of (literally) galactic proportions (because re-imposition of feudalism will likely prevent humanity from taking to the stars, forever), I de disagree over the etiology and path of the worst calamity.<br /><br />You assume that because Fox/GOP have stirred racism, sexism, misogyny, nazism and all that, then that must mean all those things are central to the oligarchy's program. Sorry. They aren't. The world mafia has one goal, total, unrestrained power. And hence, those standing in their way are not - by definition - the powerless.<br /><br />I'd bet most mafiosi, putinists, foxites and other oligarchic putschists don't care much about racism and all that. They use misogyny and nazism as dog whistles to rile up trailer park trash as foot soldiers and to distract liberals from the real goal...<br /><br />...which is demolotion of the caste that DOES stymie oligarchic power. The fact-professions. The scientists, teachers, journalists, civil servants etc. who are attacked VASTLY more by Fox & pals than are the vried races, genders and others. Oh, those races, genders etc are huge VICTIMS! And you likely would be, as well. But they are not Enemy #1.<br /><br />No, what's happened under Trump term v.1 is Putin learned to his chagrin that all those eggheads have real power and have been thwarting many - maybe most - of the measures aimed at tearing us down. If Two Scoops gets a 2nd term -- with the accompanying GOP Congress, you can bet that priority #1 from day one will be to end the 140 year old Civil Service Act and truly wage total war on even the very concept of facts.<br /><br /><br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-2708822675947063702020-03-13T19:22:35.585-07:002020-03-13T19:22:35.585-07:00"3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and ...<i>"3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 79/80 degrees. It hates the Sun."</i><br /><br />This may not be the case, as discussed here:<br /><br />http://theconversation.com/will-warmer-weather-stop-the-spread-of-coronavirus-133208<br />Jon S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13585842845661267920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-57600485688679876232020-03-13T18:02:31.699-07:002020-03-13T18:02:31.699-07:00Jim, if Trump gets into office again, do you hones...Jim, if Trump gets into office again, do you honestly think he's going to leave? And do you think there will be enough of the country left if the ACA is ripped apart and private industry and the private insurance agency is allowed to act without government control while Trump-appointed judges side with industry and insurance agencies over and over again rather than the American People? <br /><br />If Trump is reelected, I plan on immediately moving overseas. Because transgender people will be stripped of their rights. Minorities will have their voting rights seriously restricted. Republicans will have big gains in the House and Senate as the Supreme Court rules in narrow rulings that penalize Democratic regions and benefit Republican ones. <i>The country will be fucked all because the Bernie Bros insist that it's their way or the highway</i>. And I suspect Trump may try to spread Trumpism across the globe, so I may not even be safe overseas. <br /><br />There is no if, no and, no but. If you refuse to support the Democratic Candidate for President, then you are a Trump Supporter. And given nearly three million more people voted for Hillary than Trump and yet Trump still got into office, don't give me the whole "well my single vote wouldn't matter" because there were thousands of people who said that and then their refusal to vote for Hillary DID MATTER and we got the Cheetoh in Chief as a result.<br /><br />Acacia Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-47424190697573802522020-03-13T17:02:24.982-07:002020-03-13T17:02:24.982-07:00@TCB
Yes, I see the point getting circulated abou...@TCB<br /><br />Yes, I see the point getting circulated about how seasonal influenza kills more people every year. It also stressed the healthcare system in the country just 3 years ago in 2017-18.<br /><br />JAN 05, 2018 <b>Spotlight on flu season: Where hospitals are slammed hardest</b><br /><br /><i>ERs are filling up nationwide, triggering ambulance diversions and bed shortages. Here's a roundup of reports from various geographical regions.<br />Beth Jones Sanborn, Managing Editor<br /><br />This year's flu season is wreaking havoc on hospitals across the country, with ERs overflowing, hospitals diverting patients and too few beds to go around.<br /><br />NBC Bay Area reported Thursday that in some California counties the rate of flu cases has doubled in just the last couple weeks. Already the flu has killed at least 10 people across the state and hospitals are slammed. As a result, hospitals are taking extra steps to protect patients. South Bay hospitals El Camino Hospital and Dominican Hospital in Santa Cruz are restricting visitors to 16 years or older....</i><br /><br />https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/spotlight-flu-season-where-hospitals-are-slammed-hardestjohn fremonthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06505620790054721035noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-64564318485793514552020-03-13T15:47:07.321-07:002020-03-13T15:47:07.321-07:00Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now Politicians, Com...<a href="https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca" rel="nofollow">Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now Politicians, Community Leaders and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?</a> Longish article, many charts. Solid.<br /><br />One big point: social distancing highly recommended; keep 6 feet away from other people, if you must be near them at all. China bought the US some time with the lockdown in Hubei province, and we (more precisely, the Trumpists in charge of the government's response) squandered it. The situation in Lombardy will probably be replicated here by April 1; countries that dealt with it properly and promptly (such as South Korea) have held mortality to about 1%. If the medical system is overwhelmed, mortality is closer to 4 or 5%.TCBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08153506222271955110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-13138060154040835622020-03-13T15:30:01.214-07:002020-03-13T15:30:01.214-07:00Tim right back atch. You suffer from strawmanning ...Tim right back atch. You suffer from strawmanning disease, having to discredit a critic by attributing to him traits that are totally absent. N did not mention vaccine delays but testing delays, which are an absolute fact and stunning malgovernance, when even African nations are testing and zeroing in on outbreaks faster than we have in the US. <br /><br />Antibody reaction tests are vastly easier to develop and produce that working vaccines. I made clear that I know that. But even a test with substantial false positives is useful. It focuses spotlights on potential outbreaks. You know this.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-24599902431506765492020-03-13T15:29:47.252-07:002020-03-13T15:29:47.252-07:00Dr Brin:
5. If it drops on a metal surface it wil...Dr Brin:<br /><i><br />5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.<br /></i><br /><br />Even I know that an anti-bacterial doesn't do anything about a virus. From what I've read, the soap is more effective against the virus than the anti-bacterial agent.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-19652065411927424842020-03-13T15:03:41.180-07:002020-03-13T15:03:41.180-07:00David
As you've asked for my admittedly outda...David<br /><br />As you've asked for my admittedly outdated professional advice I'll give you a bit more of it.<br /><br />I fear you have become a devotee of the CSI school of science. Amazing tech just appears and works great! Problem solved in one hour. Of course you know better but your feelings sometimes overtake you.<br /><br />Viral testing is not that easy.<br /><br />Consider the consequences of false positives and negatives. Now I don't mind quarantining a few who turn out to be healthy but every person you wave through with a thumbs up can be the origin of another outbreak. And the accurate version of the test I'm told requires a rather uncomfortable deep throat swab that many overseas just refuse to do.<br /><br />In addition to seeing The Fourth Horseman gallop past a few times I've seen things in medicine that turned into - well to accurately describe them would require language I don't deploy on the internet. Vaccines for instance.<br /><br />Remember Lyme vaccine? The early versions of rotavirus vaccine?<br /><br />Look, I'm no fanboy of the current administration. It would have behooved him and indeed the people running against him to cancel all gatherings weeks ago. But your vitriol adds little to the conversation. <br /><br />Guess I'm veering away from stale medical advice again, sorry. <br /><br />I'll stay optimistic but do worry about a second round later this year.<br /><br />T. Wolter<br /><br />Tacitushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17007086196578740689noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-19839206395755938572020-03-13T14:42:37.102-07:002020-03-13T14:42:37.102-07:00Thanks Tim. But we have no basis for optgimism sin...Thanks Tim. But we have no basis for optgimism since the US is a black hole of ignorance and lack of information, far worse than the situation in Communist China. Why?<br /><br />Our calamitously vile national leadership ensured we'd be far, far behind the curve of the rest of infected nations, when it comes to testing. Result. We have NO idea where the new hotspots are, or how extensive or where on the spreading curves we are.<br /><br />We had the capability to ramp up making test kits. That capability was directly, and deliberately sabotaged by the admninistration. Directly and deliberately, with 'cost-cutting' as an excuse but other scenarios totally consistent.<br /><br />But yes, warm weather may help DT to crow "I stopped it! *I* did! Me!" While sycophants around a table reiterate: "He stoped it! *He* did!" And anyone who watches those things happen and doesn't feel vomit rising in-throat is no American.<br /><br />But thanks for medical feedback. Much as I already figured.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-21571105909792387102020-03-13T14:32:15.954-07:002020-03-13T14:32:15.954-07:00David
Looking at the list I'd say the followi...David<br /><br />Looking at the list I'd say the following:<br /><br />1 and 2 probably wrong and rather subjective. Dangerous advice.<br />3 is plausible<br />4 is highly likely and I'd heed that one. But if they are indoors....<br />5 and 6 have way too many variables to factor in. Would not bet on 'em. What's bacterial soap gonna do to a virus btw?<br />7 looks like nonsense. The guy has a water thing goin' on.<br />8 time frame debatable but very good advice<br />9 and 10 not very useful advice. More water fixations.<br /><br />I've been through a number of these events that did not reach their full potential...Swine Flu, SARS, etc. <br /><br />Sadly my covic-19 predictions once there was no help from viral lookback studies has been pessimistic but accurate.<br /><br />I'll go optimistic now. It appears the US at least is taking this seriously. I think in two weeks this burns out.<br /><br />T.Wolter<br /> <br />Tacitushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17007086196578740689noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-73162184233726873172020-03-13T13:56:42.111-07:002020-03-13T13:56:42.111-07:00The tradeoffs and necessity of containment measure...The tradeoffs and necessity of containment measures:<br />https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99caDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com