tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post3670652098975455120..comments2024-03-28T10:56:52.861-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Is Pax Americana worth defending? Or at least forgiving?David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger54125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-62007691050643353102021-05-02T04:16:46.170-07:002021-05-02T04:16:46.170-07:00"Let's put this to experiment. From both ...<i>"Let's put this to experiment. From both countries' census data, pick 1000 RANDOM CITIZENS and invite them (with immediate family) to gatherings in each others' capitals ...</i><br /><br />I'd like to propose a more dramatic solution, one that would give immediate results whether China accepted or declined the challenge:<br /><br />"You say that America is cruelly oppressing the people we put in our prisons, and we say that China is cruelly oppressing ethnic minorities. Well then, let's make this world a better place! Right now, will you accept fifty thousand of the people we have in confinement and welcome them and their families for a minimum of five years, <i> with the rights of free Chinese citizens</i>, if these people choose to accept your invitation? If so, we agree to accept on similar terms fifty thousand of the Uighur people and their families you have enslaved. And if any of those people want to stay in their new homes after five years, then they can. Deal?"<br /><br />I'm <i>sure</i> that China would welcome with open arms the people we have in our penitentiaries. We should start teaching our convicts Mandarin ASAP! >sarcasm<Mike G in Corvallisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-53097670722618393812021-04-29T10:32:46.678-07:002021-04-29T10:32:46.678-07:00Good arguments and discussions
onward
onwardGood arguments and discussions<br /><br />onward<br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36514754285863716742021-04-29T09:35:09.161-07:002021-04-29T09:35:09.161-07:00@Daniel
RE: more equality, fewer babies.
Just bec...@Daniel<br /><br />RE: more equality, fewer babies.<br />Just because a causation exists under one set of circumstances doesn't mean it exists under all circumstances. Reduced birth rate seems to come when women have more career opportunities and more sociopolitical power, but not unto zero. Careers and representation are fulfilling targets when they are in short supply. Having children is also fulfilling, especially when children are known to be scarce. Populations perform differently when they are at drastically different compositions and resource usage patterns. I doubt birth rates will ever be low enough that artificial reproduction will be necessary. To argue such is similar to arguing that food will be replaced by intravenous solutions; perhaps it could be implemented, but enough people will keep eating food that the practice will never be lost.Duncan Ocelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-63999342498296405142021-04-29T08:43:15.477-07:002021-04-29T08:43:15.477-07:00Daniel I think you are wrong about China. I believ...Daniel I think you are wrong about China. I believe they will innovate (with our help) to a soft landing.<br /><br />Duncan, I believe a powerful drive to want more babies is likely a much simpler on-off switch than complex intelligence. 5 generations, tops, before it becomes a dominant gene set. We have that long to set up a decent civilization.<br /><br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-84888186151141921982021-04-29T02:22:42.559-07:002021-04-29T02:22:42.559-07:00Duncan, the dependency ratio is defined as the to...Duncan, the dependency ratio is defined as the total number of workers divided by the total of both children AND retirees as the last two are both considered to be non-productive consumers of resources.<br /><br />No distinction is made between the two of them by economists.<br /><br />For a couple of decades China's one baby policy gave it a truly awesome dependency ratio with fewer children to care for and a work force that had not yet aged into retirement. It's the main reason why the Chinese economy was so productive and efficient in the recent past.<br /><br />But China's workforce is rapidly aging and it will become the world's largest old age home in just a few years. And its happening much sooner than expected. This year's census showed that China's population peaked and actually declined.<br /><br />https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3131460/chinas-census-expected-show-population-decline-spur-debate<br /><br />It's a problem compounded by having to few children to grow up and become tax paying workers that will pay for the retirement of a Chinese senior population larger than the total population of most nations. Add a male/female gender imbalance caused by peasants who preferred sons during the one baby policy and you have a demographic disaster that will break the Chinese economy.<br /><br />Demographically, China is a dead man walking. Like Japan in the 1980s (remember when they were going to take over the world?) China's economy will be destroyed by the demographics of too few children.<br /><br />The only thing worse would be uncontrolled population growth destroying the ecology of the planet. In its drive to industrialize and modernize, China turned itself into a polluted cesspool spewing the bulk of the world's green house gases that are causing global warming.<br /><br />You can have a healthy economy or a healthy planet. You can't have both.<br />DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-20259019223775378112021-04-28T23:56:55.110-07:002021-04-28T23:56:55.110-07:00An interesting note on demographics in China:
Chi...An interesting note on demographics in China:<br /><br /><a href="https://www.globaldemographics.com/china-labour-force" rel="nofollow">China’s Labour Force is, and is not, growing!</a><br /><br /><i>The total working age population of China is going to decline. From 999 million in 2017 to 896 million in 2037. This is inevitable as most of these people are already alive.<br />As the propensity of these people to be employed is quite stable, this means that the total employed labour force of China will also decline – from 759 million persons in 2017 to 661 million by 2037. Basically 1 in 8 workers will leave the workforce.<br />However, this decline in number of employed persons is entirely in the rural areas. There the employed population will effectively halve.<br />In urban areas, because of the current age profile as well as on going rural to urban migration, the total employed labour force will continue to increase in size – from 398 million now to 467 million in 2027 and 485 million by 2037.</i>gregory byshenkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08565517478782844083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-28797582645719047702021-04-28T21:49:59.090-07:002021-04-28T21:49:59.090-07:00Re- birthrate and the women who want lots of kids
...Re- birthrate and the women who want lots of kids<br /><br />We have learned that things like intelligence are governed by many many genes - as in at least 30 <br />From an evolutionary and heritability POV this makes these traits much much less heritable <br /><br />Something with a single gene can be "acted upon by evolution" relatively quickly<br />30 genes means the process is much slower<br /><br />Combine that with a huge well mixed population and evolving to want lots of children is going to take millions of years - millions of generations<br /><br />And that is BEFORE the fact that we are on the cusp of being able to choose our genetics - intelligent design starting soon!<br /><br />Choosing NOT to have children is a sensible choice today - kids are expensive - but it would not take very much to change that equation - make kids "cheaper and easier" and the decision will move<br />We can see that today comparing the Scandinavian countries in Northern Europe with the Catholic ones in the South<br /><br />In Scandinavian culture the man helps with the kids - not so much in the South<br />So the Scandinavian cultures are having more children<br /><br />The robot nannies may be needed to shift the equation - or maybe just better childcare help<br /> duncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-62020961565304754282021-04-28T20:22:34.286-07:002021-04-28T20:22:34.286-07:00Made the mistake of keeping the tv on for the Repu...Made the mistake of keeping the tv on for the Republican response after Biden's speech. How can something sound so reasonable at the same time as being diametrically opposite to reality?<br /><br /><br />https://www.npr.org/2021/04/28/989118802/sen-scotts-republican-response-to-bidens-address-annotated<br /><i><br />...<br />He [President Biden] promised to unite a nation, to lower the temperature, to govern for all Americans, no matter how we voted. This was the pitch. You just heard it again.<br /><br />But our nation is starving for more than empty platitudes. We need policies and progress that brings us closer together. But three months in, the actions of the president and his party are pulling us further and further apart<br />...<br />If you actually read this [Georgia voter suppression] law, it’s mainstream. It will be easier to vote early in Georgia than in Democrat-run New York. But the left doesn’t want you to know that. They want people virtue signaling by yelling about a law they haven’t even read. Fact checkers have called out the White House for misstatements. The president absurdly claims that this is worse than Jim Crow.<br /><br />What is going on here? I’ll tell you. A Washington power grab. This misplaced outrage is supposed to justify Democrats new sweeping bill that would take over elections for all 50 states. It would send public funds to political campaigns you disagree with and make the bipartisan Federal Elections Commission partisan. This is not about civil rights or our racial past. It’s about rigging elections in the future.<br /><br />And no, the same filibuster that President Obama and President Biden praised when they were senators, the same filibuster that the democrats used to kill my police reform bill last year, has not suddenly become a racist relic just because the shoe is now on the other foot. Race is not a political weapon to settle every issue the way one side wants. It’s far too important.<br /><br />This should be a joyful springtime for our nation. This administration inherited a tide that had already turned. The coronavirus is on the run. Thanks to Operation Warp Speed and the Trump administration, our country is flooded with safe and effective vaccines. Thanks to our bipartisan work last year, job openings are rebounding.<br />...<br /></i><br /><br />It was at that point that I turned off the tv while screaming an epithet which would get me cancelled from polite liberal society if my cat could tell on me--a line from <i>Blazing Saddles</i> that was discussed on this site a week or so ago. I'd like to think Richard Pryor would have given me written permission, given the circumstances.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36756855260422256882021-04-28T18:17:08.714-07:002021-04-28T18:17:08.714-07:00So how do we keep from going extinct?
Answer: Ar...So how do we keep from going extinct? <br /><br />Answer: Artificial wombs and insemination with robot nannies (indistinguishable from human parents) raising them.<br /><br />Well, you have Asimov's Solaria in extremum. But you leave out the fact that SOME women do want a lot of kids. And those will out-breed the others so vastly that malthus will certainly return within maybe 5 generations. We have that long to use this window opportunity to establish a truly grownup society, After which, just read A MOTE IN GOD'S EYE.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-58144760905735170472021-04-28T18:12:10.272-07:002021-04-28T18:12:10.272-07:00When women are given educational and career opport...When women are given educational and career opportunities outside of the home, they have fewer children. Which is why fundy religions of any variety seek to keep women subservient. If they don't have enough babies their sect could go the way of the Shakers.<br /><br />So here we are in the 22nd century with everyone rich as aristocrats, served by robots and AIs and made wealthy by the resources of an entire solar system and the energy of an entire sun. You are right, every human would be nobility, living like the Crawley's of Downton Abbey with the downstairs staff being robots and AIs.<br /><br />But wealth societies (and classes) with freedom for women have fewer babies. <br /><br />So how do we keep from going extinct? <br /><br />Answer: Artificial wombs and insemination with robot nannies (indistinguishable from human parents) raising them.<br /><br />The same technology can be applied to sending out "seed ships" to the stars with a millions of frozen embryo passengers to colonize the galaxy.DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-2872729393164111692021-04-28T17:43:18.109-07:002021-04-28T17:43:18.109-07:00If the Liberal parties of Europe are not in fact l...If the Liberal parties of Europe are not in fact liberal in the proper definition, it's not the US political system changing the definition, it's the European political system. That's all I'm saying here. (US "liberal" politics frequently fall short of the definition as well, but seem a bit closer than the European version, at least as far as I can tell. Sadly, our "conservative" politicians are no longer conservative, but in fact radical reactionaries, verging at times on fascism.)Jon S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13585842845661267920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-6176800105236419992021-04-28T16:52:11.017-07:002021-04-28T16:52:11.017-07:00I don't see any point in working-age-to-not-wo...I don't see any point in working-age-to-not-working-age ratios. A lot of workers per retirees doesn't help retirees if said workers are in cutthroat competition over opportunities to work, or settling for precariat gigs and piecework scams. I worry more about whether the GDP will be there for my retirement, and of course the political will to use some of it for that purpose.Lorrainehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13567383019731167967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-86766668733576742032021-04-28T16:25:04.434-07:002021-04-28T16:25:04.434-07:00Duncan yes, if robotics truly takes off and is des...Duncan yes, if robotics truly takes off and is designed right, then organic humans may be like a foppidh but beloved nobility crust that the machines call "sir" and "madam" while manipulating us into satisfying our whims with mere trifles, easily afforded, like starships.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-60466859516444398692021-04-28T16:20:46.159-07:002021-04-28T16:20:46.159-07:00Good crit, Alfred. Though all versions of 'lib...Good crit, Alfred. Though all versions of 'liberal" supposedly oppose rule by inheritance brats and mafiosi. Hence "liberal is betrayed by the left when they expand the role of govt interventions from raising up kids and the disadvantaged to better and safely compete, and instead seek to banish competition. Rightists who call themselves "liberal in the old sense" or "neoliberal" are absolutely not, when they claim that ownership and property are sacrosanct and regulation is wrong.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-919356857387283552021-04-28T15:03:08.963-07:002021-04-28T15:03:08.963-07:00Jon S,
There really is a loose US meaning for “li...Jon S,<br /><br />There really is a loose US meaning for “liberal” that is completely disconnected from the historical meaning. I don’t agree that “capitalist” is a good synonym for the old meaning, but it is closer than the US mish-mash.<br /><br />Old meaning is closer to “individualist” with a strong connotation implying a distinct lack of respect for tradition.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-85878590894679319402021-04-28T15:02:21.319-07:002021-04-28T15:02:21.319-07:00Duncan, while what you say is true, the benefits t...Duncan, while what you say is true, the benefits to the peasantry occurred during the aftermath of the plague years. During the actual years of depopulation, economic activity came to standstill.<br /><br />Whether a similar benefits awaits workers in the late 21st century in a age of advanced robotics remains to be seen.<br /><br />Which has implications for human colonization and industrialization of space and the solar system. We can do the later without the former, thanks to robotics - and with dwindling populations we may not have enough colonists anyways. Robotic mining and automated industry already has a cost advantage over the expense of putting humans in space. Use robots to: <br /><br />> strip mine Mercury to manufacture thousands of solar powered satellites to make a Dyson swarm to capable of providing enough energy to make Earth a Kardashev II civilization<br /><br />> mine carbon from the thick atmosphere of Venus to make carbon fiber (stronger than steel) which can be used to manufacture any structure or tool<br /><br />> mine Ceres, Callisto, Enceladus, and Europa for water for fuel<br /><br />> mine Io and other S and M type asteroids for metals<br /><br />> mine both metals and water from Saturn's rings<br /><br />(Jupiter's massive magnetic fields would fry any human that visits its moons in any case)<br /><br />> place massive data processing centers on Titan to take advantage of it cold temperature sink (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdpRxGjtCo0)<br /><br />And do it all with self replicating robots and factories run by AIs that require only minimum human oversight. No humans need apply.<br /><br />Only after the remaining 1 to 2 billion humans living among the abandoned countryside and empty cities on the Earth in the 22nd century have become fabulously wealthy (especially as a result of energy from the Dyson swarm where Mercury used to be) we can use that vast space industrial infrastructure to terraform and para-terraform Venus, Luna, Mars, Ceres, Calisto, Enceladus.<br /><br />Then send small bands of colonists to these new worlds to expand humanity's population again.<br />DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-6053816200193729932021-04-28T14:06:56.233-07:002021-04-28T14:06:56.233-07:00Demographics!!
If ever there was a Paper Tiger th...Demographics!!<br /><br />If ever there was a Paper Tiger this is one<br /><br />With a static or shrinking population the ratio of workers to pensioners gets worse but the ratio of workers to children gets better<br /><br />There is higher cost for the old and lower cost for the young - its a WASH - or even a "profit"<br /><br />And the idea that "growth" through population growth is in any way a good thing is just bollocks!<br />It "may" be a good thing if your country has a low population for its size - but in 99% of cases its a bad idea<br /><br />Real useful "growth" in an economy is by the increased efficiency of utilizing resources duncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-42777113997082366512021-04-28T14:00:36.643-07:002021-04-28T14:00:36.643-07:00Duncan O. Your critical feedback is incisive and ...Duncan O. Your critical feedback is incisive and welcome!David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-46951769370718709102021-04-28T12:46:13.507-07:002021-04-28T12:46:13.507-07:00@Daniel Duffy
In the aftermath of Bubonic Plague,...@Daniel Duffy<br /><br />In the aftermath of Bubonic Plague, the 1400s and early 1500s were a time of unprecedented rights for peasants. The 33% drop in population and the abundance of cheap land made it a "peasants' market," where peasants would uproot and move to different lords' jurisdiction if they were mistreated excessively. Peasants made rent strikes and occasionally refused to work for the lord at all. Many revolutions ousted local lords, and peasants established egalitarian communal city states, some of which lasted for decades before being destroyed by vengeful nobility. Purchasing power for peasant and serf households was quite high, higher than all of the 1600s when the church unveiled new birth control and family planning policies that ensured there would never again be a peasant shortage.<br /><br />So, if you use GDP growth as a proxy for economic strength, your conclusion about demographics is correct, but if you use other metrics, like per-capita purchasing power or the reciprocal of the GINI index, "demographic poverty" could mean a thriving peasant class.<br /><br />Got these facts from Caliban and The Witch by Sylvia Federici (try pages 44-70ish):<br />https://anacgalvis.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/caliban-and-the-witch.pdfDuncan Ocelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36108307566210329872021-04-28T08:30:47.258-07:002021-04-28T08:30:47.258-07:00Maybe there is a God. :)
https://www.electoral-vo...Maybe there is a God. :)<br /><br />https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2021/Pres/Maps/Apr28.html#item-5<br /><i><br />...<br />+ Texas was expected to gain three seats, and gained two<br />+ Florida was expected to gain two seats, and gained one<br />+ Arizona was expected to gain one seat, and gained zero<br /><br />The connection, if you haven't picked it up already, is that these are all Republican-led states with large Latino populations.<br /><br />The obvious inference here is that Donald Trump may have failed in his efforts to get undocumented immigrants excluded from reapportionment, but he was partly successful in causing Latinos to be undercounted, at least in places where the state government was happy to play along. In addition to the list above, it is also the case that New York and California—blue states with large Latino populations—were potential candidates to lose two seats each, but ultimately only lost one each.<br /><br />In short, it sure looks like Trump managed to shoot the GOP in the foot. At least two of the lost seats in Texas/Florida/Arizona would have ended up in Republican hands, and maybe all three. And the larger lessons here would seem to be that: (1) jury-rigging the system is harder than it looks, and (2) Republicans have been pretty bad at it recently, between the census, and USPS shenanigans, and voting restrictions that may hurt the Party's working-class base more than anyone else.<br /></i>Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-82611276164884023522021-04-28T06:17:57.185-07:002021-04-28T06:17:57.185-07:00"Now, if you make it pro or anti oligarchy-pl...<br />"Now, if you make it pro or anti oligarchy-plus-confederate-lowbrows, then sure. It's still a nasty hole. And the left contains would be tyrants, too. Always has."<br /><br />Both groups of people share a common denominator. They are both authoritarians. But communism/stalinism isn't your problem; fascism and apartheid is.<br /><br />"An example from recent US policy debates: RE: pandemic rent forgiveness"<br /><br />We had that discussion over here even before the pandemy. It is not so much about forgiveness, but about braking the exponential development of rents (which are tied to ground speculation and real estate investment fonds). You can, as an additional point of view, add in that property also gives you a certain amount of responsibility, and thus the society as a whole can expect that you behave in a specific manner.<br /><br />"Name one revolution that ever delivered 1% as much as this one."<br />I'd answer that it is not about revolutions in the past, but about those to come, and one never can say that they might not achieve more than "this one." It is of no use to live in the past.<br /><br />"In many European countries, "liberal" refers to people who are right-wing/capitalist economically, but leftwing/progressive socially."<br />Over the last 40 years or so, the German liberals have prostituted themselves to secure power, abandoning the leftwing/ socially progressive parts of their policies.<br />The Austrian FPÖ is far right.Der Ogerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00977602334642769985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-22025565481849037802021-04-28T05:09:25.346-07:002021-04-28T05:09:25.346-07:00duncan cairncross:
I would agree with all of that...duncan cairncross:<br /><i><br />I would agree with all of that - the "New Deal" was "Head them off at the pass" approach<br /><br />But it was still "leftist" - bit like Bismarck implementing the first "Welfare State"<br /></i><br /><br />It was a leftist approach, but not a "revolution" except in a very broad definition of that term. I think that the operative term in Dr. Brin's challenge to "Name one <b>revolution</b> that ever produced..."<br /><br />Dr Brin:<br /><i><br />Now, if you make it pro or anti oligarchy-plus-confederate-lowbrows, then sure. It's still a nasty hole. And the left contains would be tyrants, too. Always has.<br /></i><br /><br />Ayn Rand actually recognized that with her "mystics of the mind vs mystics of muscle" thing. She was opposed to totalitarianism of either kind, and from what I've read, she was hardly a darling of the American right in her heyday. They claim her now, while glossing over her militant atheism.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-49261340337933096502021-04-28T04:45:23.718-07:002021-04-28T04:45:23.718-07:00Brief thoughts on the GOP's "Quest for sl...Brief thoughts on the GOP's "Quest for slack", 1912, TR found Taft's policies unbalanced and decided, 4 years belatedly, to run for the Presidency, the GOP bid their progressive wing good riddance and never attempted to rebuild it, allowing FDR to catch them flatfooted twenty years later. Eisenhower sometimes would do the right thing, but was repudiated by Buckley, Goldwater & Nixon to separate the "Dixiecrats" from the Democrats but failed to assimilate them and were themselves assimilated. Some details on what they were exposed to and what they are becoming here:<br />https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/apr/20/the-invention-of-whiteness-long-history-dangerous-idea?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other<br /> Walking back an idea so appallingly past it's sell by date might seem logical but TPTB find it useful in domination so they're doubling down on it, rather than looking into their history for precedents for appealing to minorities they're looking to further restrict voting, because it has become the path of least resistance, even though it has an obvious expiration date that some of them will likely live to see. Poll restrictions are somewhat more civilized than nocturnal horseback riding in bed sheets, but given that the last half century has seen contemporary conservatism's assimilation by white supremacists, how far away can it be?Tim H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12380916635831994159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-77897425999644230192021-04-28T03:25:24.586-07:002021-04-28T03:25:24.586-07:00We will soon have French Revolution levels of ineq...We will soon have French Revolution levels of inequality as measured by the Gini Coefficient:<br /><br />http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/politicalcalculations/2013/12/05/the-major-trends-in-us-income-inequality-since-1947-n1757626/page/full<br /><br />In 1968, America’s Gini Coefficient was 35.<br /><br />By 2015 it had grown to 49, a growth rate of 0.31 per year.<br /><br />The GIni Coefficient in France in the late 18th century at the start of the French Revolution was 59.<br /><br />http://www.piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/MorrissonSnyder2000.pdf<br /><br />Only 10 points higher than it is now in America.<br /><br />At our current rate of growing inequality we Americans should be storming the Bastille in only 32 years, by 2047.<br /><br />The Tea Party revolt against the Republican elite is just the first rumblings. That they are being lead by Trump, a wealthy businessman turned demagogue, isn’t so odd when you consider that Robespierre was also a wealthy lawyer/businessman.<br /><br />The 1% know this and are afraid.<br /><br />Which is why they are buying up fortified homes and doomsday bunkers (at a time when mere violent street crime has fallen precipitously) like there was no tomorrow.<br /><br />For them, there isn’t.DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-49531766627107815292021-04-28T03:17:55.045-07:002021-04-28T03:17:55.045-07:00Historian Will Durant on income inequality. Histor...Historian Will Durant on income inequality. History never repeats, but it does rhyme. From his book, "The Lessons of History":<br /><br />Since practical ability differs from person to person, the majority of such abilities, in nearly all societies, is gathered in a minority of men. The concentration of wealth is a natural result of this concentration of ability, and regularly recurs in history. The rate of concentration varies (other factors being equal) with the economic freedom permitted by morals and the laws. Despotism may for a time retard the concentration; democracy, allowing the most liberty, accelerates it. The relative equality of Americans before 1776 has been overwhelmed by a thousand forms of physical, mental, and economic differentiation, so that the gap between the wealthiest and the poorest is now greater than at any time since Imperial plutocratic Rome.<br /><br />In progressive societies the concentration may reach a point where the strength of number in the many poor rivals the strength of ability in the few rich; then the unstable equilibrium generates a critical situation, which history has diversely met by legislation redistributing wealth or by revolution distributing poverty.<br /><br />.... Good sense prevailed; moderate elements secured the election of Solon, a businessman of aristocratic lineage, to the supreme archonship. He devaluated the currency, thereby easing the burden of all debtors (though he himself was a creditor); he reduced all personal debts, and ended imprisonment for debt; he canceled arrears for taxes and mortgage interest; he established a graduated income tax that made the rich pay at a rate twelve times that required of the poor; he reorganized the courts on a more popular basis; and he arranged that the sons of those who had died in war for Athens should be brought up and educated at the government's expense. The rich protested that his measures were outright confiscation; the radicals complained that he had not re-divided the land; but within a generation almost all agreed that his reforms had saved Athens from revolution.<br /><br />(IOW, Solon as the FDR of ancient Athens)<br /><br />....The Roman Senate, so famous for its wisdom, adopted an uncompromising course when the concentration of wealth approached an explosive point in Italy; the result was a hundred years of class and civil war.<br /><br />.... In one aspect the Reformation was a redistribution of this wealth by the reduction of German and English payments to the Roman Church, and by the secular appropriation of ecclesiastical property and revenues. The French Revolution attempted a violent redistribution of wealth by Jacqueries in the countryside and massacres in the cities, but the chief result was a transfer of property and privilege from the aristocracy to the bourgeoisie. The government of the United States, in 1933-52 and 1960-65, followed Solon's peaceful methods, and accomplished a moderate and pacifying redistribution; perhaps someone had studied history. The upper classes in America cursed, complied, and resumed the concentration of wealth.<br /><br />We conclude that the concentration of wealth is natural and inevitable, and is periodically alleviated by violent or peaceable partial redistribution. In this view all economic history is the slow heartbeat of the social organism, a vast systole and diastole of concentrating wealth and compulsive recirculation.DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.com