tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post3116570635102045670..comments2024-03-28T20:50:49.311-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Rejection of TomorrowDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger79125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-75804347307466163382014-10-18T09:30:56.421-07:002014-10-18T09:30:56.421-07:00re bug zappers... see how in EARTH I predicted mod...re bug zappers... see how in EARTH I predicted models that would select which insects by wing-beat patterns and laser-zap them!<br /><br />I'd be tempted to do that with trolls! ;-) But in fact, I am proud we have one of the oldest sites on the web and one that is completely un-moderated.<br /><br />now...<br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-89107471013182315722014-10-18T09:01:10.653-07:002014-10-18T09:01:10.653-07:00Alex Tolley:
BTW, using "bug zappers" t...Alex Tolley:<br /><i><br />BTW, using "bug zappers" to kill mosquitoes is a terrible idea. Studies have shown that it kills far more beneficial and food insects than mosquitoes, reducing natural vector controls like bat and bird populations.<br /></i><br /><br />As evidenced by the "Drill, baby, drill!" crowd, the fact that a means of killing misquitos would have destructive consequences to other creatures would be a feature, not a bug to them. Apparently, doing harm to the environment, to plants and animals, and even to people who can be thought of as "other" is not simply "regrettable collateral damage", but in fact, a positive good.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-70202669241976168452014-10-18T08:57:34.908-07:002014-10-18T08:57:34.908-07:00I think this "sauce for the goose" piece...I think this "sauce for the goose" piece on Greenpeace illustrates the attitude about cherry picking we like to follow around here.<br />http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26397-climate-sceptics-exploit-double-standards-of-ecowarriors.html<br /><br />I apologize for Rickrolling earlier, but it's an illustration of the uselessness of linking to articles that lack the argument the commenter claims.<br />Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-50500077626489443782014-10-18T08:55:05.592-07:002014-10-18T08:55:05.592-07:00As someone who avoids right-wing talk like the pla...As someone who avoids right-wing talk like the plague (almost literally for the same reasons one would avoid the plague), it is sometimes instructive to get a whiff of what memes are "out there" in Murdoch-land. For example, until the 2012 elections, I was blissfully unaware that the social conservatives had already gone beyond the abortion issue into fierce opposition to <b>contraception</b>, or that contraception was even the least bit controversial in the 21st century, let alone partisan.<br /><br />Likewise, I had no idea that DDT was a political issue in the 1960s, let alone that it still might be one in 2014.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-23519755042769467022014-10-18T08:49:16.588-07:002014-10-18T08:49:16.588-07:00Overview of DDT ban claims:
Wikipedia entry on DDT...Overview of DDT ban claims:<br /><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DDT#Criticism_of_restrictions_on_DDT_use" rel="nofollow">Wikipedia entry on DDT ban criticism</a><br /><br />Mosquito resistance - genetics:<br /><a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/02/140224204808.htm" rel="nofollow">Genetic secret of mosquito resistance to DDT</a><br /><br />Study on resistance rates:<br /><a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0031943" rel="nofollow">Resistance to DDT and Pyrethroids and Increased kdr Mutation Frequency in An. gambiae after the Implementation of Permethrin-Treated Nets in Senegal </a><br /><i>Biological evidence of resistance to DDT and pyrethroids was detected among An. gambiae mosquitoes in Dielmo (Senegal) within 24 months of community use of LLINs. Molecular identification of L1014F mutation indicated that target site resistance increased after the implementation of LLINs.</i><br /><br />This last is worrying, as this was the "cheap" solution that was being pushed by the gates Foundation to eliminate malaria. <br /><br />Current approaches are to release sterile male mosquitoes to reduce populations or to engineer males so that that the offspring cannot carry the disease. I think trials are starting in Latin America (Brazil?).<br /><br /><a href="http://www.cdpr.ca.gov/docs/dept/westnile/mosqover.pdf" rel="nofollow">Overview of Mosquito Control Practices in California </a><br />We don't use DDT, but we do use a variety of approaches including insecticides. California is obviously not as bad as the tropics, nor do we have malaria as endemic (yet). Mosquitoes are far worse in Canada, but fortunately they are a nuisance, but not disease carrying AFAIK.<br />BTW, using "bug zappers" to kill mosquitoes is a terrible idea. Studies have shown that it kills far more beneficial and food insects than mosquitoes, reducing natural vector controls like bat and bird populations.Alex Tolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01556422553154817988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-15961386072084522212014-10-18T08:26:39.777-07:002014-10-18T08:26:39.777-07:00In this little DDT debate, take a look at who is q...In this little DDT debate, take a look at who is quoting what sources, and you will see what I mean about extremists forming enclaves. <br /><br />Where does the actual science (rather than jingoistic rhetoric) stand on this issue? Science doesn't have a stance. Science is about reporting the facts and the best explanations for them available with the data at hand. It is up to people to make moral judgements and decide what course of action is best. There are strong arguments both for and against the use of this chemical. However, it is also quite clear that it cannot be safely used indiscriminately, as marketers and big business would prefer, in the pursuit of maximum profit. It will have to watched carefully and regulated. More data will help to clarify the calculus of when and under what circumstances it would be useful. But beware the Law of the Hammer. We may be losing the most important crop pollinator, the common honeybee, due to overuse of another pesticide.<br /><br />As to trollish behavior, it is harder to make that argument with any credibility while hiding behind "Anonymous" - afraid to own your own words.<br /><br />Dr. Brin had it right - there is little point carrying on a discussion with someone who is unwilling to be persuaded by anything. Here we see the Fallacy of Immaculate Perception in action.Paul Shen-Brownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-48514586603369072682014-10-18T07:43:54.057-07:002014-10-18T07:43:54.057-07:00Just as an aside to the 2001 article. If 0° to 1° ...Just as an aside to the 2001 article. If 0° to 1° of the elliptic is the first degree of Aries, wouldn't the zero year to the first year, be the first year of both the new century and the new millennium, etc.?Suetoniushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17476512295444262213noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-65138555323906820742014-10-18T06:31:04.274-07:002014-10-18T06:31:04.274-07:00@anon, I think you will find regulars here know wh...@anon, I think you will find regulars here know what projection is, and can identify when it is being used.Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-22143274655584642402014-10-18T06:11:05.710-07:002014-10-18T06:11:05.710-07:00@Tony Fisk
"Driessen has about the same level...@Tony Fisk<br />"Driessen has about the same level of credibility as Monckton.<br />Matt Ridley seems to have some academic gravitas, although his field is more in Zoology than atmospheric chemistry, and his libertarian views do not appear to have translated well to real life, if the fate of North Rock Bank under his chairmanship is any guide. Ridley's article that anon. cites appears to be little more than an opinion piece, to which he is welcome."<br /><br />I see you have no problems using ad personams in place of arguments yourself.<br />As said - feel free to read the wealth of scientific papers these articles are based on and name/link to.<br /><br /><br />As for your creative reinvention of the "troll" definition":<br /><br />If you have a problem with someone telling you exactly what you are, as revealed by your posts, then don't post. <br />Here, you essentially object to someone putting a mirror in front of you so that you can accurately see your reflection. Consequently, you try to create, out of this air, artificial rules to prevent such unpleasant events. To this, the only answer can be 'Out of the question'. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-46095931753987689682014-10-18T05:57:05.802-07:002014-10-18T05:57:05.802-07:00I'm not surprised David Brin manages even in t...<i>I'm not surprised David Brin manages even in this posting a logical fallacy. A "troll" is someone who doesn't use arguments, but ad personams, insults, etc in order to support their side of the argument or just because.<br /></i><br /><br />No. A troll is someone who comes to sneer. The dimmest ones barge in with insults and other noises to disrupt the narrative. More sophisticated types seek to ingratiate themselves with queries about opposing viewpoints and then pounce triumphantly as soon as they think they spot a weakness (such as when that query is answered in a manner they don't agree with) Links may be produced as unassailable proof, but the purpose is not to correct, but to belittle.<br /><br />With regard to anon's links: Driessen has about the same level of credibility as Monckton.<br />Matt Ridley seems to have some academic gravitas, although his field is more in Zoology than atmospheric chemistry, and his libertarian views do not appear to have translated well to real life, if the fate of North Rock Bank under his chairmanship is any guide. Ridley's article that anon. cites appears to be little more than an opinion piece, to which he is welcome.<br /><br />The real mark of a troll, though, is the spirit in which comments are made. When the real point of a link is to provide justification for insults, then the author is a true greenie of the scaled variety.<br />Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-90439415106347414012014-10-18T05:08:31.769-07:002014-10-18T05:08:31.769-07:00@d said
"Hi Anonymous
We obviously beg to dif...@d said<br />"Hi Anonymous<br />We obviously beg to differ about DDT<br />Have you any more comments about why refrigerators are more expensive now that the refrigerant costs a tiny amount more?<br />Or is that based on the same sort of junk science as your DDT nonsense?"<br /><br />We're not talking about a painting here, on which one can have a legitimate subjective opinion. <br />We're talking about objective facts. And the objective facts - as fully proven by my links above - are that the greens used 'gross misinterpretations and garbage scholarship' (to the point where this could not have been unintentional) to further a murderous DDT removal agenda that killed TENS OF MILLIONS - most of them, children.<br /><br />True believers who don't mind covering up a genocide (or attempting to), such as yourself, coming with dictums such as "junk science" and other notional crap over which they attempt to pour perfume changes nothing.<br /><br />As for the ozone hole issue - the information I already posted on the issue is solidly supported by the scientific findings. And far more relevant than all the posts of you ideologues put together:<br />http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-ozone-hole-was-exaggerated-as-a-problem.aspx<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-19829042653882808662014-10-18T02:57:13.256-07:002014-10-18T02:57:13.256-07:00https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
Proves...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ<br />Proves the "millions dead" statement using exact quotes from Malcolm Forbes article.Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-78110684897723145842014-10-18T02:57:02.222-07:002014-10-18T02:57:02.222-07:00Hi Anonymous
We obviously beg to differ about DDT...Hi Anonymous<br /><br />We obviously beg to differ about DDT<br /><br />Have you any more comments about why refrigerators are more expensive now that the refrigerant costs a tiny amount more?<br /><br />Or is that based on the same sort of junk science as your DDT nonsense?dnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-60342005564454475622014-10-18T02:10:35.149-07:002014-10-18T02:10:35.149-07:00@Duncan Cairncross
What's obvious is that you...@Duncan Cairncross<br /><br />What's obvious is that you have not even read the article I posted - let alone the more detailed book.<br />The concerns you mention are dealt with decisively and by using scientific studies, as opposed to alarmist anecdotes and insane dictums (that conveniently ignore the TENS OF MILLIONS of dead).<br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-55335787450488218142014-10-18T02:03:19.428-07:002014-10-18T02:03:19.428-07:00Anonymous
You have not read any of those articles
...Anonymous<br />You have not read any of those articles<br />Fact (1)<br />DDT persists and builds up<br />Fact (2) <br />DDT was being used by the gallon - just about everywhere<br /><br />If we had continued along that path we would have had a catastrophic build up by now<br /><br />Once we had a warning did some people overreact??<br />Possibly - even probably<br />But the fact that we still have farms contaminated with DDT over 40 years later means that it was a serious problem<br /><br />What would have happened if we had continued to use vast amounts of DDT for mosquito suppression??<br /><br />That's obvious as well - the damn things would have developed immunity <br /><br />So we would have traded adding massive amounts of a persistent poison to the environment for a couple of years malaria reduction<br /><br />Not for anything like your "four decades"<br /><br />The poor countries you reference would not have thanked you for contaminating their land to the extent that their crops would not have able to be sold anywhere <br /><br /><br />Duncan Cairncrossnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-52280138161447461032014-10-17T19:30:38.376-07:002014-10-17T19:30:38.376-07:00Bugger - it crashed and I double posted
Anyway re...Bugger - it crashed and I double posted<br /><br />Anyway re DDT<br />Here (Clean green NZ) there are farms that cannot be used because DDT was used decades ago and it is still present in the ground <br /><br />DDT can and should be used for Malarial suppression <br />BUT it must be used carefully<br />We cannot go back to the days when it was poured into the environmentDuncan Cairncrossnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-86153640001729944922014-10-17T19:21:26.549-07:002014-10-17T19:21:26.549-07:00Hi Anonymous
Re Fukushima
Given that it was such ...Hi Anonymous<br />Re Fukushima<br /><br />Given that it was such a disaster how much actual damage to the environment has it caused<br /><br />As far as I can see the score is<br />Zero human deaths<br />About the same amount of radiation released as Japans coal fired plants release in one year<br /><br />A bloody mess - yes<br />Should have been much better - yes<br /><br />But overall much much less environmental or human damage than the fossil fueled power plant Duncan Cairncrossnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-71991335634962290022014-10-17T19:19:02.183-07:002014-10-17T19:19:02.183-07:00As far as DDT, Rachel Carson and malaria deaths ar...As far as DDT, Rachel Carson and malaria deaths are concerned I recommend some articles:<br /><br />From Slate: http://goo.gl/HjHd1<br /><br />Scientific American: http://goo.gl/baiUyl<br /><br />NPR: http://goo.gl/4s40kxAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11946521745147557709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-68336587413825969712014-10-17T18:57:15.760-07:002014-10-17T18:57:15.760-07:00Hi Anonymous
Re Fukushima
Given that it was such ...Hi Anonymous<br />Re Fukushima<br /><br />Given that it was such a disaster how much actual damage to the environment has it caused<br /><br />As far as I can see the score is<br />Zero human deaths<br />About the same amount of radiation released as Japans coal fired plants release in one year<br /><br />A bloody mess - yes<br />Should have been much better - yes<br /><br />But overall much much less environmental or human damage than the fossil fueled power plantDuncan Cairncrossnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-13360205432398786002014-10-17T18:52:00.220-07:002014-10-17T18:52:00.220-07:00Jumper, it's been so long since I heard those ...Jumper, it's been so long since I heard those names I can barely remember them - but yeah, it is clear that some of those posties were missing the point. WHat gets me is that so many of my fellows wanted to keep the postmodern label while rejecting the extremists who had sullied its name.<br /><br />As to our little troll attack, this guy makes arguments like most of the people I grew up with. Be thankful you only have to deal with them on line and not in person. Where I came from, there were so many of these loonies that you could effectively be barred from employment or have people shoot out your windows at night. <br /><br />I met my wife at a university in Colorado, where she was one of hundreds of students from a sister school in Taiwan that sent school teachers who wanted to move up to get a Master's in Education, with the expectation that they would return home. But when she came back from the summer married to an American, suddenly she stopped getting A's in her classes and she was the only one of the foreign exchange students to fail her comps, even though many others had English skills that were so poor they could barely write clear sentences, much less cogent essays. Once they saw that she was married to an American, some of those professors decide they could not allow her to get her degree and teach American kids. We had to go through a lot to get her degree conferred, with a lot of outside help. After that we moved to a much larger city, where the right-wing loonies were more balanced out by left-wing loonies, and more normal people who had some sense of duty. Although her English skills were lacking, she had no problem getting the teaching license she worked for at UC Denver. <br /><br />Extremists like this form their own little righteous enclaves, insulated from reality, where they can do as they please and only hear what they want. Paul Shen-Brownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-39510552839577460682014-10-17T16:58:37.466-07:002014-10-17T16:58:37.466-07:00One clarification: I am by no means an expert in t...One clarification: I am by no means an expert in the field, but have tangent connections - beginning with work for several years as a security guard at General Electric's Nuclear Energy Business Operations in San Jose, CA). GE had not sold a plant for several years, and I was there as they were changing from a manufacturing factory into a engineer paperwork factory. The NRC was generating about 1,000 changes requests per year, and GE engineers were providing support to the various plant owners trying to deal with 3 new regulations per day. It was very impressive, wandering around the various test facilities doing night rounds. This was the Regan recession, jobs were scarce. I remember marveling that during nights and weekends the emergency response for the multi-hundred million dollar site was left in charge of a security guard supervisor who made about a dollar over minimum wage (less than the starting wages for the unionized janitors).<br /><br />I was a CS student while security guarding at GE (contrary to stereotypes, only a couple of us security guards were actually going to college while working there). I remember having some discussions with some of the engineers, who seemed relatively diligent. But GE was a large bureaucratic company with privileged executives and poorly treated factory workers; and I decided early on that I would never work for them. They were run like a second wave company (re: Toffler's Third Wave), lacking anything like the HP Way and other practices then becoming common in Silicon Valley. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-87200788941203414362014-10-17T16:40:55.412-07:002014-10-17T16:40:55.412-07:00As for the anti-nuclear left, I think again there ...As for the anti-nuclear left, I think again there is a range of concerns; and only some of that is based on ignorance of science. Thanks to Fukushima I have moved from moderate booster to an opponent.<br /><br />I started working on embedded systems, and from there went into computer security at a company that made fault tolerant computers. From my time security guarding at GE's Nuclear Energy Business Operation, I remember marveling at the complexity of the hardware and processes intended to provide safety. But it was not until decades later with Fukushima that I really put this complexity together with the knowledge picked up making reliable solutions that included both tech and designing processes tolerant of human fallibility (such as cryptographic key ceremonies). True one of my relatives had been complaining for years about shoddy operations at the nuclear power plants his company sold replacement gear to (common to find a bunch of new alarms going off when a new system was installed, almost always because the old system was not catching them, or the alarms had been inappropriately disabled some distant time in the past). <br /><br />I will freely admit Fukushima is something of a worst case. Many things had to go wrong at once, and it was an old technology (ironically the control systems were probably built in the very factory that I used to security guard). But I am positive almost nothing went wrong that had not been anticipated; it was more a failure of how humans build complex systems and the limitations of investing to prevent rare events (black swans). Getting feedback on how companies actually operate nuclear powerplants (and I am told that people working there are the cream of the power generation industry, Homer Simpson references aside); even the cost effective original dangers that thoughtful engineers did attempt to prevent go wrong because of long term operation decay. It is both human nature, and corporate culture to discount problems with a very small chance of occurring. Even granting strong government watchdogs (which I would hesitate to call the NRC, especially during the reign of vice-president Halliburton); the natural attitude is something like: <i>We never had a problem with this in 20 years, and it takes several other things to go wrong before it becomes important, so why not simplify some of that complex upkeep.</i> <br /><br />The problem is of course, that when these rare events happen, they can be extremely deadly. Fukushima as it stands now, is a disaster that has shortened the life of many humans, caused a large amount of local disruptions, and probably contributed to a slight increase of mortality to several thousand square miles of ocean. But Fukushima is not "safe" yet, they are teetering on the edge of things becoming much worse. They have lost most of the safety systems, have little or no redundancy left, and the problems are so complex that it will take years to solve. Meanwhile the company and the government regulators continue to use the normal playbook of downplaying the chance of things going wrong.<br /><br />And that does not even take into account anti-social companies (like Koch Enterprises) that specialize in generating short term profit at the expense of negative externalities to everyone else. So while I still believe in a theoretical world where we could design, build, and operate a safe nuclear power plant; I no longer believe that people, corporations, and governments as they exist in this world can safely do it. That some people reached this conclusion through feelings and intuition, does not mean that all who hold it are anti-science.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-2943235382768376382014-10-17T14:54:50.842-07:002014-10-17T14:54:50.842-07:00Gawd, I too read that and find zero written about ...Gawd, I too read that and find zero written about the human life lost to DDT restrictions. Anyone who wastes our time like that is a dishonest creeptard.Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-34954044515302047912014-10-17T14:31:29.899-07:002014-10-17T14:31:29.899-07:00Yeah, I know. I just hope that, if they try to ju...Yeah, I know. I just hope that, if they try to justify the narrative, they will look closely for the facts behind the narrative and discover those facts are lacking.<br /><br />Hope springs eternal, and all that.A.F. Reynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-13371668505460915142014-10-17T13:06:23.770-07:002014-10-17T13:06:23.770-07:00A.F. Rey it's all the narrative, to them.A.F. Rey it's all the narrative, to them. David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com