tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post242996866915330805..comments2024-03-18T17:09:55.964-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Looking Backward...and then Toward the FutureDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger79125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-87594609756714237082011-03-07T13:39:12.479-08:002011-03-07T13:39:12.479-08:00David, I read your article equating world wealth t...David, I read your article equating world wealth to a diamond. However, looking at another important variable, growing wealth inequality in the U.S. - it looks more like a balloon aneurysm with the top 1% sucking in all the wealth. Some like the Gates are sizable donors (for example education). But their move to improve teaching standards fails to understand that growing wealth inequality - with more children stuck in poverty - is driving the downward scores in many areas. Although giving should be congratulated - it will not substitute for good paying jobs and more equitable wage practices. Ironically, some of the givers have actually shunned these practices in their own businesses. Thus they can only provide band aids on the open sore of a rapidly declining nation.Blighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08553162703689935667noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-51226987394415432502011-01-04T21:29:28.487-08:002011-01-04T21:29:28.487-08:00Followup: Earth, pg 136 already mentioned under Oz...Followup: Earth, pg 136 already mentioned under Ozone Hole: Blind robins. Some threshold had been reached and within weeks they were all dead. Status: Unlikely Like climate change from rising levels of carbon dioxide, the effects of depleted ozone on Earth's faunaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-78772512372030757032011-01-04T17:49:18.471-08:002011-01-04T17:49:18.471-08:00onward...onward...David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-4473498245890939662011-01-04T17:22:41.872-08:002011-01-04T17:22:41.872-08:00"Culture War is truly not between old left an...<i>"Culture War is truly not between old left and old right. It is between pragmatic problem-solvers and mad loyalists to the addiction of indignant rage."</i><br /><br />Unfortunately, at the moment pragmatic problem-solvers cannot communicate over the din of our ancestral drums.Abilardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12849545632114544654noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-41811553243772278032011-01-04T17:09:30.800-08:002011-01-04T17:09:30.800-08:00Culture War is truly not between old left and old ...Culture War is truly not between old left and old right. It is between pragmatic problem-solvers and mad loyalists to the addiction of indignant rage.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-70039459772482492522011-01-04T14:54:30.480-08:002011-01-04T14:54:30.480-08:00I think it is a question of where in the decision-...I think it is a question of where in the decision-making process the optimism or pessimism exists. Here is an example approach:<br /><br />1. Accept that uncertainty exists.<br />2. Know what you value.<br />3. Quantify the context in which you operate.<br />4. Develop a strategy to preserve what you value.<br />5. If possible, add something new of value to the world.<br /><br />If optimism or pessimism are used as a palliative to escape from the reality of step one, it is a setup for disaster. It does not make sense for step two. In relation to step three it is rather meaningless to apply either term (if the facts change one's assessment will change). <br /><br />Step four is the tricky one. Being optimistic or pessimistic here really depends on how well one has handled the early steps. It is best to be cautious. <br /><br />Applying either term at step five is unlikely to have an adverse impact.<br /><br />I think Dr. Brin is optimistic at step four, but that the way he expressed this could cause people to be optimistic at step one, which is why I quibble.Abilardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12849545632114544654noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-60818612024097754692011-01-04T14:09:27.220-08:002011-01-04T14:09:27.220-08:00In other words, Doc Brin is a (sane)optimist. He w...In other words, Doc Brin is a (sane)optimist. He would say, "It's not gonna be an easy trip, but dammit, the future's frickin' awesome! Let's go there!"<br /><br /><br />Dr. House from the series House MD is a (sane)pessimist (albeit of the grating jerk kind). He would say, "These are all the ways in which things can go wrong, but don't worry, I've prepared for all the ways that you can screw up."<br /><br />An (insane)optimist would say, "OMG the future is awesome! Nothing it brings can go wrong! LET'S GO NOW!!!"<br /><br />An (insane)pessimist would say, "HA! You naive idiot, I TOLD YOU everything would blow up on you! Now excuse me while I grab for me and screw everyone else."Ilithi Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10300247936272572280noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-7998112525492533522011-01-04T13:20:57.902-08:002011-01-04T13:20:57.902-08:00I think this would best be resolved by distinguish...I think this would best be resolved by distinguishing between (sane)pessimism and (insane)pessimism, and (sane)optimism and (insane)optimism. The (sane)pessimist guards us against fail scenarios while the (sane)optimist pushes us towards bright tomorrows. The (insane)pessimist revels in and encourages fail scenarios while the (insane)optimist barrels forward with zero regard for risk or consequence.<br /><br />You both seem to be saying the same thing, but a slight disagreement in semantics seems to be causing the appearance of disagreement in concept/understanding.Ilithi Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10300247936272572280noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-14121296993044460612011-01-04T12:55:17.087-08:002011-01-04T12:55:17.087-08:00When hope (justifiable in this case) becomes optim...When hope (justifiable in this case) becomes optimism (an expectation that all will turn out well per <a href="http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/optimism" rel="nofollow"><b>Dictionary.com's</b></a> least strawman-like definition) this expectation can lead to complacency and to a failure to perceive threats to peace in our time, as a certain Neville learned. It is the flip side of the same coin you describe above, where cynics criticize but lack the courage to act or perceive opportunity. While you are an example of an optimist who is not blind to threats, there are likewise cynics/pessimists who are not blind to opportunities or action. Again, the two mindsets mirror. It is my opinion that optimism, like its shadowy twin, is a threat to clear thinking and adaptation.Abilardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12849545632114544654noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-62035929233669723562011-01-04T12:28:21.767-08:002011-01-04T12:28:21.767-08:00Abilard. Please, no offense, but merely claiming t...Abilard. Please, no offense, but merely claiming that you have not misconstrued the other person (me) does not mean that you have not. You indeed, persist in a strawman image, despite my relentless and VERY clear repetitions.<br /><br />"I disagree with the contrasting notion that optimism is noble or wise."<br /><br />When did I say that? Please? I have relentlessly stressed that my optimism arises out of SURPRISE! My clear-eyed and history-based view of human awfulness means that I prepare against possible return to the human norm of vicious nastiness...<br /><br />...but that vigorous preparation is in part propelled by surprised gratitude that my expectations about THIS civilization keep being proved WRONG!<br /><br />Optimism isn't goody nobility... it is scientific willingness to accept the staggering facts before my very eyes.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-79601004070383748342011-01-04T11:27:37.321-08:002011-01-04T11:27:37.321-08:00Brin,
You are defining optimist as clear-eyed rea...Brin,<br /><br />You are defining optimist as clear-eyed realist. They are not the same. An optimist assumes probabilities will work out in his or her favor. A cynic, commonly understood, questions human motives. The two terms are not antonyms, as cynics are pessimistic with regards to people as opposed to probabilities more generally.<br /><br />I am not misreading your <i>intended</i> commentary on the psychology of pessimists, though I quibble with the semantics. Having encountered many, especially survivalists/preppers, with the myopic ungrateful mindset you describe, I do not even disagree that such people exist and may be damned. I disagree with the contrasting notion that optimism is noble or wise. As you know from history, it can be deadly. <i>Realism</i>, even realism that recognizes that the odds are sometimes bad, is the best mindset.Abilardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12849545632114544654noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-16506337865463189792011-01-04T10:58:02.824-08:002011-01-04T10:58:02.824-08:00Abilard, again you misread my very clear statement...Abilard, again you misread my very clear statements. I have explained that I KNOW human beings are rotten and shit happens! I know more history than any ten people you know and I mean that. Literally. And I know shit can fly.<br /><br />I raised my kids to be black belts, I store food. I am a member of CERT (are you?) and participate in civil defense exercises. I grew up EXPECTING to see mushroom clouds on the horizon, at some point.<br /><br />I am all in favor of supporting a state that watches out for hypothetical huns. And if I see actual Huns rampaging on an actual horizon, I will organize my neighbors. I am the precautionary Veneti.<br /><br />On the other hand, I will not mope around, like most of the Romans of those days, maundering and moaning about how it's all gonnahell. A few more good men, in that era, and much might have been preserved. Read LEST DARKNESS FALL by deCamp.<br /><br />Or... to get really depressed, watch the recent film AGORA.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-92225222790690162912011-01-04T10:13:09.227-08:002011-01-04T10:13:09.227-08:00Abilard,
That would require the assumption that s...Abilard,<br /><br />That would require the assumption that sanity was there to begin with...<br /><br />} ; = 8 )Ilithi Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10300247936272572280noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-53057658024236482472011-01-04T10:10:33.186-08:002011-01-04T10:10:33.186-08:00I'm logging in with Gmail and have had no diff...I'm logging in with Gmail and have had no difficulty, though the thought of Ilithi sitting and clicking about 10 times while sanity slips is amusing. ;-)Abilardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12849545632114544654noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-70635307723059898152011-01-04T10:02:06.100-08:002011-01-04T10:02:06.100-08:00Hmmm... Well, I'm wondering if there's som...Hmmm... Well, I'm wondering if there's some kind of a technical conflict between GMail/Google and Blogger... You and I both have had problems, and we log in to blogger using gmail, and if others who are having problems are logging in with their Google accounts as well, then we have a working theory (though if anyone is logging in through some other means but still having problems, it would be disproved. Oh, hey look! We're doing science!<br />} : = 8 D<br /><br />Oh, and there are members of 4Chan to hate everything, and members who DO hate everything. That, or they're just doing it for the lulz... Either is just as likely.<br /><br />Minglu: An adhesive that was popular in east asia, especially China during the 17th and 18th Centuries, that was branded by Chancellor Yan Song of the Ming Dynasty in 1549.Ilithi Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10300247936272572280noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-91827118629781961182011-01-04T08:39:47.245-08:002011-01-04T08:39:47.245-08:00I have a profile on Blogger, though I've never...I have a profile on Blogger, though I've never created a blog using it (seeing that until two years ago <i>Tangents Reviews</i> was part of the Panel2panel website and utilized a forum rather than blogger software such as WordPress, which I started to use when I parted ways with Panel2panel concerning editorial concerns (Glych didn't like the hate mail she was getting concerning some of my comments on other blog sites and requested that I avoid "aggravating" some webcartoonists whom she had contract work that was cut off at one point because of some BS that happened behind the scenes - why these asshats didn't bother confronting me directly I'll never know, unless it's because by attacking my web host, they could try to force me off the Internet. Not that that worked, btw.)<br /><br />I think it logs on partly through Google mail (as I have a Gmail account that is listed when I log into Blogger), but I'm not familiar with any problems with my account and the Tangents site is actually on the front page of sites for Google searches of "Tangents," which makes me unsure of any "suspicious activity" from me.<br /><br />Unless of course the above-mentioned asshats tried to complain to Google mail concerning my e-mail account as well. It wouldn't surprise me.<br /><br />(Yeah. It's funny that <i>webcomic reviews</i> can result in Internet Drama, but seeing that some members of 4chan hate the hobby with a passion, I suppose it's only to be expected.)<br /><br />Rob H.Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-66546026852613641902011-01-04T07:51:49.094-08:002011-01-04T07:51:49.094-08:00Ilithi,
This is one of those cases where percepti...Ilithi,<br /><br />This is one of those cases where perception, rather than precision of definitions, matters. The Veneti who stayed in Aquileia very likely thought those who left were nuts, doomers, and <i>cynics</i>. The optimist believes there are always possibilities. Attila could be bargained with, no? Surely the Huns would not loot <i>every</i> home, but just a few an move off somewhere else! Likewise when Brin vents about cynics, the reader or listener is not likely associating his arguments with a narrowly defined term, but with the common understanding.<br /><br />The problem is the binary view: both optimists and pessimists are, to the extent that they match type, stopped clocks. Both will be correct with varying frequency, but neither tracks reality. The way to criticize cynics, if that is what one wishes to do, is not to further obscure reality by playing this binary game, but rather to criticize their specific perceptions of reality.Abilardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12849545632114544654noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-45358457683543616152011-01-04T07:22:55.932-08:002011-01-04T07:22:55.932-08:00Hmmm... And on the note of disappearing posts, Rob...Hmmm... And on the note of disappearing posts, Rob H., are you signed into Blogger via a Google account? After the above fiasco, I went to check my account and found that it had been locked out because Google had detected suspicious activity with my account (a simple verification process allowed me to sign back in). I wonder if the post disappearance and difficulties has any connection to that...Ilithi Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10300247936272572280noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-2973955668019843592011-01-04T07:16:08.772-08:002011-01-04T07:16:08.772-08:00Okay, I think it's staying... If it goes away ...Okay, I think it's staying... If it goes away again, I'll just post it on my own damn blog and link to it...Ilithi Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10300247936272572280noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-7673913020878662482011-01-04T07:14:27.771-08:002011-01-04T07:14:27.771-08:00AAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH!!!! AGAIN!!!!
} > : = 8 O
A...AAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH!!!! AGAIN!!!!<br /><br />} > : = 8 O<br /><br />Attempt #10!!!<br /><br />Abilard,<br /><br />Are you talking about cynicism or honest skepticism? There is a difference, imo. The former will shoot for the fail scenario because it's the easiest way to self-righteously say, "I told you so!", and because it means they don't have to actually do anything to confront the challenges faced, they can just sit back and self-righteously belittle all the foolishly naive people who get off their asses and go out and try and fix things. Things go wrong often enough that they can claim to be always right, even though they are so often wrong (or worse, contribute to their own predictions by actively stymieing efforts to fix problems). The latter, however, honestly recognize that even the best circumstances can go fubar when you least expect it, and so keep an ear to the ground for trouble and take rational precautions, while simultaneously working to fix the problems faced, or at least trying to stay out of the way of the people facing those problems by trying to make things better while they face those problems by preparing for any potential snafu.<br /><br />Cynics, as the esteemed Doc has said, are ungrateful, snarking assholes who sit back and belittle and berate anyone who doesn't automatically go along with their "We're all doomed anyway, nothing you do will make a difference, it's not even worth bothering over, <i>I TOLD YOU SO!</i>" mindset. Honest skeptics, however, are among the group of people actively working to confront our problems and challenges, either by working on contingencies for worst-case-scenarios and left-field surprises, or by following the overly-rambunctious optimists around to make sure they have proper fail-safes in place before implementing anything too radical.<br /><br /><br />And along the vein of expressing proper gratitude, I want to thank you, Doc, for restoring my own optimism and faith in humanity and this country. I am an inherent optimist, and I have always, always held to the belief that the human race has a vast potential for greatness that will be achieved if humanity is just given the chance to go about it. It's been a given to me that humanity would achieve that greatness, and that the U.S. was a shining example of and spearhead for that greatness for longer than I can remember (and I can remember very far back), but what I saw transpire under the Bush administration, and certain influences in my last years of highschool and after caused that optimism to flounder. It wasn't until I came across your site and this blog (after being linked to your ST-v-SW article) that I was able to shake that pessimism and recognize those negative influences as unhealthy and wrong. You, and many of my fellow posters here, have restored my optimism and faith in humanity, America, and the goodness of people, and not only restored but strengthened my resolve to see this world made a better place. Doc, you have become one of my greatest role models (right up there in the top five with Captain Picard and Carl Sagan), you and the community here have helped me define and solidify my principles and ideals and justify my inherent idealism and optimism, and you personally have been the key influence in my decision to become a published science fiction author myself.<br /><br />For that, I am eternally grateful to you personally, and to this community as a whole.Ilithi Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10300247936272572280noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-41933389987183009312011-01-04T07:14:08.203-08:002011-01-04T07:14:08.203-08:00I gave up on my posting on blood tests for metasta...I gave up on my posting on blood tests for metastasizing cancers and on something political. I've grown rather annoyed at Blogger, to be honest.<br /><br />Rob H.Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-25141255750688829052011-01-04T07:12:53.369-08:002011-01-04T07:12:53.369-08:00NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! It went away again!!!! GRAH!!!<a href="http://nooooooooooooooo.com/" rel="nofollow">NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!</a> It went away again!!!! GRAH!!!Ilithi Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10300247936272572280noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-86315398763855109292011-01-04T07:05:26.133-08:002011-01-04T07:05:26.133-08:00Aaaand it disappeared...
} > : = 8 |Aaaand it disappeared...<br />} > : = 8 |Ilithi Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10300247936272572280noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-3515825121250979452011-01-04T07:04:58.236-08:002011-01-04T07:04:58.236-08:00Well that only took six attempts to get posted... ...Well that only took six attempts to get posted... Let's see if it stays up there now...Ilithi Dragonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10300247936272572280noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-10839525237972449732011-01-04T04:58:17.232-08:002011-01-04T04:58:17.232-08:00It's early and I may need more coffee, but it ...It's early and I may need more coffee, but it strikes me that the discussion above regarding cynicism and optimism produces more smoke than light. Neither bias is realistic. Neither is adaptive.<br /><br />The inhabitants of Tikal were optimists in the sense that they thought they could continue acting as their ancestors had even though resource circumscription had become severe. They died. Copan, the same. Dozens of Maya cities as well, but in the middle of all this death was <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lamanai" rel="nofollow"><b>Lamanai</b></a> with its wisely managed fields, storage caves, and chultunes. They survived and even took in refugees from their dying neighbors.<br /><br />452 AD, Attila invades Italy, tearing through the province of long-time Roman allies, the Veneti. Padua and Aquileia are ravaged, but not all Veneti fall. Some had cast a cynical eye north before the Huns marched in. They had tried to organize an evacuation long in advance, and succeeded in relocating large numbers of people and resources to a series of swampy but defensible islands, and Venice was born.<br /><br />History is made by cynics who act.Abilardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12849545632114544654noreply@blogger.com