tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post2367609313690204748..comments2024-03-29T00:39:31.629-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: The Case for a Scientific Nation: Part TwoDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger94125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-70276077551825139342012-09-13T18:19:15.899-07:002012-09-13T18:19:15.899-07:00http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2012/09/no-record-to...http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2012/09/no-record-to-run-on.htmlJumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-82403391277551065522012-09-13T15:51:24.297-07:002012-09-13T15:51:24.297-07:00This should be of interest to people here: http://...This should be of interest to people here: http://phys.org/news/2012-09-open-source-revolution-science.html<br /><br />Scientists are using 3D printers to design and make their own equipment. In the example given, a lab jack, a basic laborotry tool, that normally sells for around $1,000 was made for less than $1.<br /><br />Where this will really have an impact, I think, is in the developing world.<br /><br />Just blue-skying here but might we see surgeons printign instruments to get around the need for sterilization?Ian Gouldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07666385933765478081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-71258083941876857322012-09-13T15:41:02.423-07:002012-09-13T15:41:02.423-07:00onwardonwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-44724264139398380012012-09-13T15:39:27.844-07:002012-09-13T15:39:27.844-07:00sociotard said... "And hey, didn't somebo...<br /> sociotard said... "And hey, didn't somebody once suggest using a nuclear power plant to pump air into an open ended inflatable tube to take balloons to orbit?"<br /><br />Even better. Pump water to huge lakes along the slopes of Chimbarozo or Mt. Kenya. Then release the water into fast turbines to drive a super accelerator gun-to-orbit laid along the mountain's western slope.<br /><br />Keithcu cannot be blamed. His cult believes that assertions always trump facts. There was a time (Goldwater-Bucjkley) when this was not the case. Today, you cannot get into a slug fest. You can array twenty facts. They will put up ten assertions and declare "Even!"<br /><br />What you can point to is the plain uber-fact that nearly all scientists have fled the GOP. Nearly all the generals and admirals. The doctors and economists and journalists and every other clade of intellect in American life... except wall street brokers and seminary graduates.<br /><br />When you have driven off all the smart people (almost) you are left having to demean smart people. One can hope that road will eventually end the cult. But never underestimate.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-27755518233859267442012-09-13T14:46:02.592-07:002012-09-13T14:46:02.592-07:00Keith, that article gives exactly ONE example of D...Keith, that article gives exactly ONE example of Democrats getting a scientific issue wrong.<br /><br />You might also want to note that Michelle Bachmann tried to link HPV vaccination to retardation - and was supportecd in her claims by many on the far right.<br /><br />http://healthland.time.com/2011/09/13/vaccination-causes-mental-retardation-fact-checking-michele-bachmanns-claim/<br /><br />And here's Ron Paul making similar claims:<br /><br />http://infowars.net/articles/january2008/230108Vaccines.htm<br /><br />Ian Gouldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07666385933765478081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-59442757238594836292012-09-13T14:30:11.542-07:002012-09-13T14:30:11.542-07:00Here is an article and book which attempts to debu...Here is an article and book which attempts to debunk the case that the Democrats are the pro-science party:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/09/10/are_democrats_really_the_pro-science_party_115367.html#.UE4s3u_-CQY.twitter" rel="nofollow">http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/09/10/are_democrats_really_the_pro-science_party_115367.html#.UE4s3u_-CQY.twitter</a>KeithCuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04505583863292011001noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-76273088631767545262012-09-13T14:05:18.590-07:002012-09-13T14:05:18.590-07:00Re: China's interior.
Afred you seem to be th... Re: China's interior.<br /><br />Afred you seem to be thinking about the extreme west of China - Xinjiang, Ningxia, Tibet.<br /><br />When people talk about China developing the interior they're mostly talking about the Yangtse Basin - which has been one of the main centres of Chinese civilization for millenia. (And to a lesser extent to provinces upriver from hong Kong like Yennan.)<br /><br />It isn't a matter of moving people and water to the deserts, it's a matter of moving jobs, infrastccuture and education to the hundreds of millions of peoplr who already live in provinces like Sichuan and Hubei.Ian Gouldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07666385933765478081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-23964570423221805212012-09-13T13:56:36.204-07:002012-09-13T13:56:36.204-07:00Alfred: There is no doubt the nuclear industry cou...Alfred: There is no doubt the nuclear industry could do with a few iterations of try/fail/try again from engineers bent on improving things. Convincing the public to go along with this is the hard part.<br /><br />The other problem with that when we're discussing global warming is the timeframe.<br /><br />Let's say someone builds a prototype Rubbiatron, traveling wave reactor or Thorium reactor starting tomorrow.<br /><br />It's likely to be a 20-50 Megawatt proof of concept reactor and its likely that bulding it and testing it will take 5-10 years.<br /><br />Then you build the first full-scale plant - which means goign throguh the fulllicensing process with a completely new design, <br /><br />Investors are likely going to want to see that first plant at least mostly completed before committing to more plants. So that's another 10 years or so.<br /><br />Then if, say, 10 reactors are commissioned based on that first operating plant. THey'll take another 5-10 years.<br /><br />So realistically, a genuinely novel reactor design would take 20+ years before it even started to make a significant contribution to the world's energy mix.<br /><br />The only exception I can see to that is the designs for really small modular reactors. With them you might collapse the tiemframe down to 10-15 years,Ian Gouldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07666385933765478081noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1766430646022596182012-09-13T13:20:14.619-07:002012-09-13T13:20:14.619-07:00And hey, didn't somebody once suggest using a ...And hey, didn't somebody once suggest using a nuclear power plant to pump air into an open ended inflatable tube to take balloons to orbit? <br /><br />;)sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-43868567507260470342012-09-13T12:36:30.017-07:002012-09-13T12:36:30.017-07:00Rob,
Many nuclear power uses have been considered...Rob,<br /><br />Many nuclear power uses have been considered. Your one fits into the desalinization category. You aren't in the energy industry at that point, though, so I won't pretend to know enough to say more than... it won't matter until the cost of water gets really high. When it does, and it will in many places, it might make more sense for people to move to the water instead. Urban populations can have a smaller footprint on the world and that might translate to money saved.<br /><br />Paul451,<br /><br />That makes sense. That is what we've done in the US too. We don't have any rivers connecting the east and west coast, but we do have our highways. If memory serves, our interstate road system has proven to be the most expensive thing we have EVER done with public money.<br /><br />I hope they have a good water plan for those inland surplus cities. Desalinating and piping water could get pretty expensive too. 8)Alfred Differnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-32987876780236494332012-09-13T11:52:03.925-07:002012-09-13T11:52:03.925-07:00Alfred Differ,
A bit part of China's infrastru...Alfred Differ,<br />A bit part of China's infrastructure development is precisely to improve transport to the interior. And many of the "surplus" cities are further inland.Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36835031399914521092012-09-13T11:48:35.743-07:002012-09-13T11:48:35.743-07:00Re: Libya and Romney.
All said, I am disappointed...Re: Libya and Romney.<br /><br />All said, I am disappointed by one aspect of the Obama reaction. The refusal to "own" the Tweets at the centre of the pretend scandal.<br /><br />After all, the Romney-rant is based on a (grotesquely dishonest) twisting of people actually showing amazing amounts of grace... and defiance. That's something that should be praised by Obama, "this is what we do, this is America", not "this wasn't an official statement".<br /><br />Same thing with the forced resignation of the Ag.Sec for eloquently explaining her path to tolerance and understanding, because of a similar "misinterpretation" by the Foxites. Instead of praising the speech, thus changing the tone of the argument, they ran from it, thus agreeing with the Fox distortion.<br /><br />It would be nice if the Obama administration showed as much faith in the people who voted for him, as they showed him.Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-40548108806994940132012-09-13T11:46:08.629-07:002012-09-13T11:46:08.629-07:00So, here's a use for nuclear plants, then, and...So, here's a use for nuclear plants, then, and given enough retrofitting could even be adapted from retiring Naval ships...:<br /><br />Utilizing pipelines and a nuclear reactor, evaporate seawater and pump it to arid locations (+- 30 degrees latitude, for example...) slightly uphill and inland from the reactors. Use the water to hydrate people. Use their grey water waste to hydrate crops. <br /><br />Might even be a way to repurpose oil pipelines that lead to exhausted oilfields, maybe? Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07541997928359883625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-72973366681349774862012-09-13T11:07:12.965-07:002012-09-13T11:07:12.965-07:00I'm not sure it is so very damning. I remembe...I'm not sure it is so very damning. I remember Clinton getting not-much flack for smiling at a funeral, then acting weepy when he spotted the camera.<br /><br /><a href="http://whatreallyhappened.com/RANCHO/CRASH/BROWN/TEARS/tears.html" rel="nofollow">http://whatreallyhappened.com/RANCHO/CRASH/BROWN/TEARS/tears.html</a><br /><br />Indeed, the only people who cared about it were the ranty-right-wing types who put up that web page. I suspect that only ranty-left-wing types will care about Romney's smirk.sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-64474550087387901372012-09-13T10:53:46.719-07:002012-09-13T10:53:46.719-07:00I must say, I think that picture might be a key mo...I must say, I think that picture might be a key moment should enough people try to exploit it. Nor is it easy to brush off by saying it was a different event - you can see the somber look on everyone else's face... and the smug smirk on Romney as he thinks "I've got you now, Obama." <br /><br />Who knows. It might even win a Pulitzer, if the news media gets off their collective asses and actually does their jobs to pursue this. Sadly, I don't know if there will be time now - the Republican machine is already shifting course to back Romney on this, and additional protests at other embassies will only add fuel to the fire that Obama is inept when it comes to "coddling" the Muslims.<br /><br />But that picture... that is damning evidence. That shows that Romney <i>does not care about other people</i>. You have a statesman who died while doing his job... who risked his life for democracy... and Romney sees it not as a tragic moment but as an opportunity to win. That picture dehumanizes him. And that picture could easily lead to Romney losing what little voter approval he has already.<br /><br />After all, if you have a smug snake grinning because a diplomat died during a riot, then does that suggest he'll even consider the lives of soldiers he puts in harm's way? Or will he just pile them into the meatgrinder of Iran in the Next Republican War?<br /><br />Rob H.Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-27350685964659004982012-09-13T10:09:58.230-07:002012-09-13T10:09:58.230-07:00The Chinese have tried for centuries to develop/ex...The Chinese have tried for centuries to develop/exploit the interior. It is a difficult and expensive thing to do. Rivers and ports enable the cheapest transportation method possible and this has lead them to be an export oriented economy. They can't ship inland as easily, thus wealth cannot move inland easily. <br /><br />I appears they are trying to deal with some of that by spending the large sums necessary, but it might take awhile for the wealth to move. Even with decent roads, it is easier to export. Geography is a pain sometimes.<br /><br />I suspect they won't ever develop the interior anymore than we here in the US will develop our large deserts. China is effectively an island surrounded by water on one side and hostile terrain on all others. I suspect as the wealth of the island grows, the people in the interior will just move. That is their traditional solution.Alfred Differnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-60871838261999624622012-09-13T09:56:10.573-07:002012-09-13T09:56:10.573-07:00The French actually give away the electricity ofte...The French actually give away the electricity often enough to matter. They have a significant oversupply from nuclear. It gets used to pump water uphill at hydroelectric sites further north last time I checked.<br /><br />There is no doubt the nuclear industry could do with a few iterations of try/fail/try again from engineers bent on improving things. Convincing the public to go along with this is the hard part.Alfred Differnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-54425233042756431242012-09-13T09:42:49.523-07:002012-09-13T09:42:49.523-07:00Re romney's SEGrin:
"They were just tryi...Re romney's SEGrin:<br /><br />"They were just trying to score a cheap news cycle hit based on the embassy statement and now it’s just completely blown up," said a very senior Republican foreign policy hand, who called the statement an "utter disaster" and a "Lehman moment" — a parallel to the moment when John McCain, amid the 2008 financial crisis, failed to come across as a steady leader. <br /><br />It was the second time Romney has been burned by an early statement on a complex crisis: Romney denounced the Obama Administration's handling of a Chinese dissident's escape just as the Administration negotiated behind the scenes for his departure from the country.<br /><br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-18524629955542495522012-09-13T07:23:02.839-07:002012-09-13T07:23:02.839-07:00Speaking of China...
Re: China as New Japan.
The...Speaking of China...<br /><br />Re: China as New Japan.<br /><br />The difference between China and Japan is that China effectively has entire other developing nations within itself. As one region reaches the growth plateau that all developed nations seem to reach, industry moves further inland to areas with cheaper labour, instead of moving to other actual nations. This allows the developed areas to transition to the next phase, without the stagnation that generally hit other newly developed countries.Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-7596581169003722312012-09-13T07:19:32.855-07:002012-09-13T07:19:32.855-07:00[From the last of the last thread]
Maynard,
"...[From the last of the last thread]<br /><br />Maynard,<br /><i>"in the 1440s and 1450s. [...] It might well have been the European powers colonized first instead. China certainly had the raw transport and firepower advantage at the time. [...] Had the Ming Emperor known, Europe would remain a colony of China today."</i><br /><br />No, Europe was too good at fighting. Having recently fought each other, the Vikings, the Turks, the rest of Arabia, and anyone else who "thought they were hard enough". China had a technological advantage, but Europe had the recent battle experience <i>and a willingness to adopt new technology</i>. If the Mandarins were already worried about the cost of merely sailing the Expedition fleet, they certainly wouldn't have wanted the cost of a war of occupation that would not have won enough treasure to come close to break even. Even if they had tried, not realising the difficulties, they wouldn't have sustained the cost for long.<br /><br />Plus that's precisely when Europe was coming into ascendancy, as China was stagnating. (Like Japan picking a fight with the US in WWII, while Japan was at peak economic output and the US was still economically depressed. As the US came "on line", Japan was swamped. And the reverse happened (technologically) in the '70s. Reversed again in the '90s.)<br /><br />No, the mistake was not in not conquering Europe, it was in completely turning their back - at a time when Europe was about to leap forward. Instead of soldiers, or traders, they should have sent scholars to Europe and Arabia. (And India. And the Americas later.)<br /><br />[Scenario for Harry Turtledove. What-if the Chinese had colonised the West Coast of Nth America as Europe colonised the East.]Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-84133599750512672542012-09-13T07:13:02.094-07:002012-09-13T07:13:02.094-07:00KeithCu,
"It is true that Paul Ryan voted aga...KeithCu,<br /><i>"It is true that Paul Ryan voted against the debt commission's final result. But there was a lot in there he liked, as he had done a lot of the work to put it in there. He just didn't want to endorse it in total and thought it was missing important things. In any case, it was the President's debt commission. You focus on Paul Ryan's vote, and ignore that the commission was created by Obama."</i><br /><br />So just based on your own comment, Obama created a group to try to come up with a bipartisan solution to debt. And even though Paul Ryan got most of what he wanted included, because he didn't get his own way entirely he threw a tantrum and voted against it?<br /><br />And your conclusion from that is that Ryan is a great guy and Obama is a dick?<br /><br />Solyndra,<br /><i>"how about $500M spent on a bankrupt company?"</i><br /><br />I think Ian's point was that you don't know how much of a loan guarantee will be needed until you know how much the assets are worth.<br /><br /><i>"Solyndra is just one example, there is also Ener 1, Beacon Power, Abound Solar, Amonix Solar, Spectra Watt, Eastern energy,"</i><br /><br />Don't forget Konarka Technologies and others. Supported by Massachusetts state government's energy fund... including under Romney's administration. Because stimulating infant industries is the job of government.Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-88326598592852516842012-09-13T05:32:41.984-07:002012-09-13T05:32:41.984-07:00Also, I should say that Bill Weld was a fabulous g...Also, I should say that Bill Weld was a fabulous governor. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07149936479083440451noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-33936861562801518552012-09-13T05:31:52.111-07:002012-09-13T05:31:52.111-07:00Yeah. I just figured that viewers would catch the ...Yeah. I just figured that viewers would catch the context from Dharapak's caption. <br /><br />As a Massachusetts resident and property owner I 'enjoyed' living under his governorship. Since Bill Weld left the seat for an ambassadorship under Clinton, only to get shafted in the vote by his own party, we had a string of bad Republican governors. Paul Cellucci, Jane Swift, and then Romney. All of whom cravenly used the office as a stepping stone rather than to govern. <br /><br />Can't say I much like Devall Patrick's performance over his first term, but at least he hasn't abused the office as a stepping stone for personal gain. <br /><br />(I'm currently living in Perth, WA, but am still a resident of MA)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07149936479083440451noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-47451157710861701392012-09-13T05:07:41.809-07:002012-09-13T05:07:41.809-07:00Unless of course they dump that excess inventory o...Unless of course they dump that excess inventory on their own market. After all, they still need lots of copper wire... and probably could use shoes and the like too. Don't forget, they're busy turning their own people into their consumer base. <br /><br />Of course, the big problem is this: China has dozens of automobile manufacturers. The Chinese refuse to buy cars that aren't made in part by foreign companies. They see "Made in China" as meaning "piece of crap" and thus scrimp and save for a European or American car made in China. Seeing how many people the Chinese automotive industry hires, when these local companies start going belly up in a couple of years, you're going to see unemployment spiking in China.<br /><br />Rob H.Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-13797945396260775782012-09-13T04:50:33.800-07:002012-09-13T04:50:33.800-07:00dear dr. Brin, you wrote:
"OTOH a vast overs...dear dr. Brin, you wrote:<br /><br />"OTOH a vast oversupply of tennis shoes and buggy whips and electrical wire will get dumped onto the world market to be sold for whatever price the stuff can get. THAT will have effects and probably cause a trade war."<br /><br /> <br />as a proof of the inherent defects of GAR... but many Chinese factories are contractors for US or Euro firms and brands operating in free markets, so unless Apple got wrong in its market forecasts, Foxconn didn't build too many iPads. And probably the cheapest low end consumer goods made in PRC wouldn't compete with higher end ones, as buyers can't afford the latter. Again, just IMHO...Marinonoreply@blogger.com