tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post2345307224982016646..comments2024-03-29T06:22:47.638-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Science, human nature, power! Delusion! And a few final political thoughts...David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger247125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-58175207343198073522016-11-10T18:27:08.464-08:002016-11-10T18:27:08.464-08:00Today I was interviewed on NPR's "Here an...Today I was interviewed on NPR's "Here and Now" show on how technology and being on-camera all the time is affecting American politics. The actual audio is better than the short transcription .<br /><br />http://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2016/11/10/reality-tv-presidency<br /><br />onward<br /><br />onward<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-59098863516392901162016-11-10T15:06:05.218-08:002016-11-10T15:06:05.218-08:00Naum:
Voting suppression may have played a role i...Naum:<br /><i><br />Voting suppression may have played a role in Wisconsin -- margin was <30K yet 300K voters lacked voter ID<br /></i><br /><br />Sounding like a broken record, but only when Democratic-controlled states find a good way to suppress <b>Republican</b> votes will the issue be taken seriously enough to reform.<br />LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-68327719392247603422016-11-10T14:57:21.079-08:002016-11-10T14:57:21.079-08:00Okay. It's not my political reaction piece. B...Okay. It's not my political reaction piece. But it is a new posting.<br /><br />onward<br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-15423126191889565422016-11-10T14:49:10.270-08:002016-11-10T14:49:10.270-08:00donzelion:
It is time to abolish the electoral co...donzelion:<br /><i><br />It is time to abolish the electoral college: the most egregious manifestation of gerrymandering ever conceived, a relic intended to stop a civil war that failed utterly - a tool that empowers landowners in Wyoming against working classes throughout the country.<br /></i><br /><br />The problem is insidious, because the mechanics of abolishing a part of the constitution itself would require 3/4 of the states to sign off on the change, and many of those required states directly benefit from the existing system. If it's going to happen at all, it will be in the angry aftermath the next time a <b>Republican</b> candidate wins the popular vote but loses the electoral vote. I ranted about that very thing a few items upward.<br />LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-45456638313943756722016-11-10T14:42:08.764-08:002016-11-10T14:42:08.764-08:00Alfred Differ:
@LarryHart: Maybe Elizabeth Warren...Alfred Differ:<br /><i><br />@LarryHart: Maybe Elizabeth Warren?<br /><br />Y'all can do that if you want, but it would be doubling down on the progressive stance for Democrats. We already know much of the country votes red, so I'm not sure that would be a winning choice.<br /></i><br /><br />You sound like Bill Clinton in the 1990s, thinking he had to be a "kinder gentler" Republican to get elected as a Democrat. It might have been true then, but I don't think so now.<br /><br />The disaffected Bernie voters who stayed home or voted third party would have loved Warren. The voters who don't mind a woman president as long as it wasn't <b>that</b> woman would vote for Warren, or at least not vote against her. People who voted for Trump because (inexplicably) they were poking at Wall St would have loved Warren. She really does fight for the issues that concern the "common man" of the rust belt in a way that Trump only pretends to.<br /><br />That said, I'm not sure that a rock-star celebrity is the best way to go, and Warren is probably the closest thing the Dems still have to that role. But I don't think she's do as badly as Hillary did in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, or Florida.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-63851298984372380922016-11-10T14:33:44.170-08:002016-11-10T14:33:44.170-08:00I said previously:
Two regrets I have about proce...I said previously:<br /><i><br />Two regrets I have about process. Had Trump won the popular vote and Clinton won the Electoral vote, there would be a big popular movement to eliminate the Electoral College as "unfair" going forward. Since it happened in the opposite direction, there will not be such a movement. That sort of thing gets changed when Republicans are inconvenienced, but not when Democrats are.<br /><br />Very similarly, had Democrats won the presidency and a bare majority in the Senate and thought to abolish the filibuster, they probably would have been shamed out of it by accusations of power-grabbing and lectures on checks and balances. Since it happened the other way around, I expect the filibuster to be abolished as the first order of Senate business. Again, rules only change when the change is immediately beneficial to Republicans.<br /></i><br /><br />One more such issue is the Supreme Court. Had Hillary been on the verge of nominating three justices and "changing the court for a generataion", there would be a political movement to get rid of the lifetime terms and impose some sort of non-political term limits on how long one gets to serve. Since it's a Republican who is about to impose his will on the makeup of the court, no such movement will emerge.<br /><br />In all such cases, it seems that reforms to seemingly-disfunctional rules of government only happen when the rules are inconveniencing <b>Republicans</b>. I'm not saying only Republicans benefit long term, or that any of the reforms I suggest here aren't good ideas no matter who is in charge at the moment. I'm also not saying that I wish Hillary had unfettered power so that she could run roughshod over everyone else. I'm saying I wish Hillary had unfettered power so that that power would very quickly be removed from the office. That won't happen when it's a Republican with unfettered power.<br />LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-75081154298205261452016-11-10T14:26:44.620-08:002016-11-10T14:26:44.620-08:00Voting suppression may have played a role in Wisco...Voting suppression may have played a role in Wisconsin -- margin was <30K yet 300K voters lacked voter ID:<br />https://www.thenation.com/article/the-gops-attack-on-voting-rights-was-the-most-under-covered-story-of-2016/Naumhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06741963276339044331noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-76642107323260274962016-11-10T12:41:46.290-08:002016-11-10T12:41:46.290-08:00I sent a donation to the ACLU today. Time to up su...I sent a donation to the ACLU today. Time to up support for those we are going to need helping us later. I urge all of you to do the same. The ACLU home page has a picture of Trump and "We'll See You in Court" as the headline. <br /><br />Libertarians? I have a huge problem with their ideology - their economics are utter bullshit handwaving. But, as David says, they make (mostly) honorable opponents. They will be tested most severely in the near future though - Trump will force many Libertarians to choose between social freedoms and economic ones. We shall see how many Republican-leaning Libertarians truly believe in liberty soon enough. My guess is 'not many' but I am pessimistic right now. matthewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17757867868731829206noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-53660962361306593742016-11-10T12:03:01.206-08:002016-11-10T12:03:01.206-08:00I think I've figured out which episode of the ...I think I've figured out which episode of the Twilight Zone we're in now.<br /><br />Season 3, Episode 8: "It's a Good Life."<br /><br />And guess who's playing the Billy Mumy character. :(A.F. Reynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-81227473183620786002016-11-10T11:59:30.725-08:002016-11-10T11:59:30.725-08:00Millennium Crow you are most welcome here. We hav...Millennium Crow you are most welcome here. We have several serving officers and noncoms. Indeed, I know many from my speaking tours (in the last year I’ve twice spoken for certain intelligence agencies, a pentagon office and the White House.) I think you’d be surprised by how much your worries are shared, the higher up in ranks you go. Flag officers have become quite fretful over what was becoming of the Republican Party, even before Trump. See how I discuss the differences in military doctrine between Democrats and Republicans:<br /><br />http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2012/10/how-democrats-and-republicans-wage-war.html<br /><br />Most Americans aren’t aware how deeply we depend on the quasi-religious devotion of the officer corps to civilian authority. One of mny deepest fears is that DT might force the OC to choose between his role as CinC and… us. <br /><br />Thanks for reinforcing my belief (shared by too few!) that our officer corps is one of our national treasures. Be careful my friend. That goes almost without saying. Eyes open.<br /><br />------<br /> <br />Tony F: I smell a rat in the popular vote. In Alabama etc, the audit-free voting machines can deliver any result the factotums want. And since the election results there are boringly pre-evident, no one will look closely if the republican vote MARGINS are pumped up, contributing to a much closer national result. Just being paranoid, of course. But sometimes paranoia…<br /><br />Jeff B… ending gerrymandering in CA, WA, OR etc did NOT have the expected effect of shaving off DP reps in those states. It strengthened the DP in those states! It is time for the dems to declare this a crime BY republicans against the people.<br /><br />Jonathan cut CarlM some slack. He said he lives in a non battleground state. (CarlM make things clear.) And giving the LP greater cred is another path (if unlikely) <br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-32845822935719930292016-11-10T11:44:02.488-08:002016-11-10T11:44:02.488-08:00LarryHart: "What happens now to Trump TV?&quo...LarryHart: <i>"What happens now to Trump TV?"</i><br />He already has Breitbart. The Trump family will continue the buyout and expand that.<br /><br /><i>"Which side is FOX on, especially Megan Kelly."</i><br />They will turn back to defending Christmas, to defending white police officers improperly accused, to defending against 'scientific imperialism' - but their most important target is Social Security. <br /><br />They cannot directly attack it: they need to focus on "saving it" with tactics intended to destroy it. They've proven the power of the 'fact-adverse' Americans - folks who disbelieve everything that isn't fed to them by an 'authorized channel': so they know that it will be quite possible to pull this off. And honestly, they're less interested in 'destroying Social Security' than raiding the piggy bank and putting that money into their pockets. <br /><br />Hannity, Limbaugh & Friends will all want their piece of other people's money.donzelionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05991849781932619746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-58281461836611696922016-11-10T11:37:42.662-08:002016-11-10T11:37:42.662-08:00Robert: "Even so, if we did not have an elec...Robert: <i>"Even so, if we did not have an electoral college, Hillary would have won the popular vote without me."</i><br /><br />I will never claim that voting your conscience is a waste of a vote. <br /><br />Rather, I will claim that if you felt that your decision mattered, you would choose based on the best of the available options, and recognize a need to work harder to ensure that the 'best available' options are better than what is before us. <br /><br />Hillary won the primaries largely based on a view that "Now it's her turn" from insiders who've put their lives into trying to do what was best for (a) themselves and their careers, and (b) the country as a whole. Game of Thrones put it brilliantly (re Stannis): "the personality of a lobster." Yep, I could do no more than begrudgingly support her - but I can wholeheartedly endorse what she claimed to stand for - her platform was responsible, respectable, and reflected the work of decades of hopes by people who are trying to make this country better (which is why Bernie could also jump on board, and it's failure is a serious blow).<br /><br />Some folks think all the 'insiders' are the enemy: that's a foolish indulgence (and most of the 'insiders' are living on a fraction of what they'd have earned elsewhere).<br /><br />In 2016, with an electoral college in place, your conscience may be clear. But without that electoral college to absolve our duties, we have to take this democracy more seriously. It is ridiculous that the party that won 4 out of 5 of the last elections in the popular vote lost 3 out of 5 of those elections. It is WRONG. And must be changed.<br /><br />As for the Libertarians: I have no problem with them, unlike some on my side, so long as they advocate honestly held beliefs. My fury is directed at Christians right now: a group that found Clinton's adultery to be a problem, but embraces a serial adulterer. Their hypocrisy offends me most because I see the danger it raises: when a person embraces an excess of cognitive dissonance, they can do anything and ignore everyone telling them what they're doing is wrong. Down that path the dark side lurks.<br /><br />(And as an aside, anyone notice that 5 out of 6 times that a Star Wars movie was released, the Republicans won the next election? I think that should be added as 'evidence that this series is bad.')donzelionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05991849781932619746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-44753259510913845732016-11-10T11:19:50.588-08:002016-11-10T11:19:50.588-08:00Alfred: Russia is an exhausted power. Even with ...Alfred: Russia is an exhausted power. Even with an aircraft carrier, they're not the threat they were 24 years ago.<br /><br />China is. In the last months, they have breached a 100+ year relationship between the U.S. and the Philippines, and now have a president in their strongest rival who threatened to extort S. Korea and Japan. <br /><br />And Taiwan looks with terror at the thought of a U.S. president making a deal with China: "OK, we'll sit back and do nothing on Taiwan in exchange for a trillion dollars of debt. Deal?"<br /><br />Of course, that will never happen. Just as Americans will never elect an utterly unqualified president whose most important political contribution was demanding the sitting president's birth certificate.donzelionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05991849781932619746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-59344626126419418472016-11-10T11:16:49.184-08:002016-11-10T11:16:49.184-08:00Yes, we are in an electoral college system.
Even ...Yes, we are in an electoral college system.<br /><br />Even so, if we did not have an electoral college, Hillary would have won the popular vote without me.<br /><br />So you do not get to claim my voting for anyone who isn't Hillary or Trump is wasting my vote or caused Hillary the election. Because in both cases that is not true - both with the electoral vote and with the popular one.<br /><br />Further, Libertarians tend far more to be conservative. So if anything you should want MORE people to vote Libertarian because if they had? If that 1% of Republicans had gone Libertarian and given us the 5% we need for federal funding of elections? Clinton would have won in all likelihood.<br /><br />So you should be advocating for Libertarians. We're very likely what will be taking the place of Republicans after Trump is done smashing the party apart - and he will. He isn't going to forget the multitude of Republicans who gave lackluster or no support at all and he is going to in two years lead the charge to "get rid of those bums" and try to rile up his base to do so.<br /><br />Rob H.Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-48016117694461488862016-11-10T11:07:09.479-08:002016-11-10T11:07:09.479-08:00Robert: re protest votes
The electoral college ma...Robert: re protest votes<br /><br />The electoral college makes it possible for many people to stay home or vote for someone who will not win but who makes them feel better because - "why should I vote? the other side's gonna win anyway..." or "X is gonna win my state, so I can do anything, or nothing, however I like" - or "it makes no difference anyway"<br /><br />It is time to abolish the electoral college: the most egregious manifestation of gerrymandering ever conceived, a relic intended to stop a civil war that failed utterly - a tool that empowers landowners in Wyoming against working classes throughout the country.<br /><br /><i>"So you do not get to say I bear responsibility for Trump being elected"</i><br />The electoral college absolves you from responsibility. But you're still an American, and we have duties that go higher than that. It needs to die so that our duties are borne honorably on our shoulders and we are all required to bite the bullet and do our best with some difficult options (and do better to get better options).donzelionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05991849781932619746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-25288490223137267172016-11-10T11:02:48.537-08:002016-11-10T11:02:48.537-08:00LarryHart: re the "Manhattan inundation ->...LarryHart: re the "Manhattan inundation -> Trump profit" theory - <br />I'll share in bitter laughter, but it's far more bitter. Yes, the insurance companies and creditors probably voted Republican, but they have many ways to make other people pay for any losses they encounter. <br /><br />That is the part that makes me cry: folks who get screwed have no remedy - a lawyer usually cannot take these claims very far even when they're meritorious because they pay off thousands (sometimes) but cost tens of thousands to litigate. The insurance companies will choose whose claims they will actually handle (and they'll chose people who will ultimately make them more money) - but piercing past that is exceptionally difficult.donzelionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05991849781932619746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-44143055848887342342016-11-10T10:59:57.173-08:002016-11-10T10:59:57.173-08:00On another note... is everyone ready for a 51st st...On another note... is everyone ready for a 51st star on the US flag? DC voted to petition to become the state of New Columbia and turn the federal reserve area into something a bit like the Vatican.<br /><br />We could probably make something politically interesting out of this and suggest we adopt Puerto Rico as #52.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-79801690550599043172016-11-10T10:53:00.338-08:002016-11-10T10:53:00.338-08:00@LarryHart: Maybe Elizabeth Warren?
Y'all can...@LarryHart: <i>Maybe Elizabeth Warren?</i><br /><br />Y'all can do that if you want, but it would be doubling down on the progressive stance for Democrats. We already know much of the country votes red, so I'm not sure that would be a winning choice.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-78657315630769856232016-11-10T10:38:00.208-08:002016-11-10T10:38:00.208-08:00That one political ally of Russia gasses their peo...That one political ally of Russia gasses their people if they aren't loyal.<br /><br />The nukes won't fly over Syria. That danger is reserved for Ukraine and just about anywhere in the Caucasus range. Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-9948522879739602052016-11-10T10:11:59.821-08:002016-11-10T10:11:59.821-08:00@MilleniumCrow: The other thing I've started n...@MilleniumCrow: <i>The other thing I've started noticing is how little most people are actually talking about the election.</i><br /><br />Don’t be too paranoid about this. Get some sleep and you might notice that what is happening is a long standing American tradition that can be paraphrased thusly. “Politics is NOT a blood sport.” 8)<br /><br />We will manage to survive this. We might even prosper from it in unexpected ways. We lost our Prop 8 (same-sex marriage) battle in California in 2008, but the after-effects were powerfully different from what proponents intended. Roll up your sleeves, become politically active, and we might turn this lemon into lemonade.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-89658185025573687872016-11-10T10:06:46.448-08:002016-11-10T10:06:46.448-08:00Robert,
I didn't elect HC to be the Democrati...Robert,<br /><br />I didn't elect HC to be the Democratic candidate, but if I had how would my responsibility for that vote be any different than your's or anyone else's for any of their votes? You feel that because in your voting district HC won that after the fact you can proudly relinquish responsibility for your vote? Because polls showed HC would surely win in your area?<br /><br />Given the demonstrable lack of accuracy of nearly all of the forcasters, professional and otherwise, that isn't a very solid position. Many people made the same decision you made, or perhaps to just stay home, based on the belief that their vote wouldn't count because they were convinced of who was sure to win in their district / state, and then turned out to be wrong. They rolled the dice on what seemed a sure bet and lost, you rolled the dice on what seemed a sure bet and won. Congratulations. You're still responsible for your vote. Like everyone else.<br /><br />Also, HC winning the Democratic candidacy has nothing to do with a voter's responsibility for their vote for president in the general election. The primary is in the past. Conditions as they are in the now, during voting for the general election, are what is relevant. Being pissed off that HC won the primary is not a valid excuse for not voting for her in the general election. Unless, of course, the voter was for Trump over HC or merely indifferent between the two. In which case, fine. That is their prerogative. But being pissed off that HC won the primary, not voting for her in the general and then complaining that Trump won and blaming the Democratic party because they didn't provide a candidate that could win by a big enough margin against Trump to afford everyone who doesn't like HC, but doesn't want a Trump presidency either, the pleasure of not voting for her, is not holding the high ground.Darrell Ehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14054311762477388637noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-51494187694525505302016-11-10T10:04:04.561-08:002016-11-10T10:04:04.561-08:00@Tony: I won’t respond with the same level of vigo...@Tony: I won’t respond with the same level of vigor as Robert, but I am in general agreement with him. Don’t blame the third parties for offering a more attractive candidate when the other two are flawed. Reasonable people can argue for a preferential system, but in the US I’m highly skeptical it will ever fly. I voted for Johnson and would have preferred Clinton over Trump. None of them earned a majority, so my second vote would have been added to hers in such a system, right? So what? In that system you’d get to find out which way the Libertarians lean, but my experience says they lean Republican in most places. Democrat converts (like me) are rare. If my gut feeling is right, we’d still have Trump as President-elect, but we’d also have a lot of Americans feeling that Libertarians got to vote twice. I know that isn’t technically true in a preferential system, but that would be the complaint from many who are single party loyalists. That’s why it won’t fly here.<br /><br />I can get away with a Libertarian vote in California because the Democrats don’t need my vote to govern here or choose the electors. I still agree with them on many things, but I’m more interested in the Libertarian project as an opposition group. (It’s hard to call them a party on some days because they can be quite a rabble.) If I lived in a red state, I’d probably do as David suggests and join the GOP in order to moderate it. I wouldn’t care to use a preferential system, though. I don’t mind offering my vote to someone who won’t win. Winning isn’t the point of voting. Choosing is.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-4755479293934644942016-11-10T09:47:09.487-08:002016-11-10T09:47:09.487-08:00What happens now to Trump TV?
Which side is FOX o...What happens now to Trump TV?<br /><br />Which side is FOX on, especially Megan Kelly.<br /><br />And how boring will Rush Limbaugh, Bill O'Reilly, and Sean Hannity become with no Democrats to bloviate against?<br />LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-77717933292850543332016-11-10T09:44:35.439-08:002016-11-10T09:44:35.439-08:00@Robert
Maybe Elizabeth Warren? She's the on...@Robert<br /><br />Maybe Elizabeth Warren? She's the only one left who I can think of with the kind of "rock star" status a candidate seems to need these days. I'd prefer we didn't elect rock stars myself, but I seem to be in the minority on that one.<br />LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-18196592779632212142016-11-10T09:30:24.201-08:002016-11-10T09:30:24.201-08:00Well, who knows. Maybe in 2020 Biden will be in go...Well, who knows. Maybe in 2020 Biden will be in good health still and can run against Trump. I'm hoping it's still Trump at that point as Pence is far more dangerous.<br /><br />That said, I suspect we need a young Democrat to run. Preferably Hispanic. Someone to motivate the younger voters and get them enthused once more. <br /><br />Rob H.Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.com