tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post2106895630806273607..comments2024-03-18T17:09:55.964-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Is Class War as Inevitable as the Return of Karl Marx?David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger152125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-69047153447387298852017-02-10T15:35:17.766-08:002017-02-10T15:35:17.766-08:00onward
onwardonward<br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-51043673263193917172017-02-10T15:31:48.932-08:002017-02-10T15:31:48.932-08:00Dr, are you familiar with Robert Scribbler's b...Dr, are you familiar with Robert Scribbler's blog, https://robertscribbler.com/ ? He's actually a fairly well-known SF writer, but please don't hold that against him. His level of scientific accuracy is fairly high, even if his prose is a bit breathless. (Yup, definitely an SF writer...). I subscribe, and his posts (one or two a week) are nearly always worth reading. <br /><br />Unfortunately, this winter has seen several times when temperatures ran 50F above normal. Today would be sadly unremarkable for this season unless you were talking 50C. On New Year's Day, still deep in Solstice darkness, the North Pole was above freezing, 35C above normal. <br /><br />Presently, ice growth is sluggish, not in itself unusual as the region approaches its annual maximum extent, but it is at record lows for the date, just 14.9 million sq. km. The Antarctic, near its summer minimum extent, is also at a record low, with 60% of the Antarctic coastline currently ice-free.Zepp Jamiesonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16261339498383415026noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-10953566847338339232017-02-10T15:06:26.557-08:002017-02-10T15:06:26.557-08:00"And denialist cultists are genuinely insane...."And denialist cultists are genuinely insane."<br /><br />Didn't Jared Diamond describe a similar situation that destroyed the civilization of Easter Island - a ruling clique blindly holding on to power at all costs even to the point of wrecking their own civilization.DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-15829738669310689242017-02-10T15:06:05.636-08:002017-02-10T15:06:05.636-08:00Interesting point in today's LATimes. The sec...Interesting point in today's LATimes. The secularization of young people has eroded religious attendance, but it would have been far worse without hispanic immigrants! Especially since, as in much of Latin America, they are switching from Catholicism to evangelicalism in droves. Irony!<br /><br />donzel you are informative, but I don't buy it. It's easy enough to look around find a cousin -- say from the Wahhabb Clan -- who is plausibly not an ibn Saud prince, make him the guy and then marry in a daughter.<br /><br />In any event, both Al Qaeda and Daesh members all were raised by Wahhabb madrassas.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-39838105011430949362017-02-10T15:04:51.030-08:002017-02-10T15:04:51.030-08:00One other famous meta-historical cycle appears to ...One other famous meta-historical cycle appears to be repeating. The end game described by Toynbee in his "Study of History". You can argue with the details of his meta-history (or the very concept of meta-history itself) but in broad strokes his rhythms of a civilizations birth, growth, decline and death make perfect sense. <br /><br />This is especially true of his bifurcation of a decaying society into a dominant minority (more interested in power - today we call them the 1% - than the creative minority that led civilization through its growth period) and an alienated internal proletariat. <br /><br />And who can deny that the internal proletariat isn't just alienated, they're pissed off - and their nationalistic populist parties decided Brexit and the Trump election. All that is left is the creation of an external proletariat preparing a volkwanderung across the borders of the more advanced civilization.<br /><br />The last won't happen because our external proletariat has discovered birth control. So unlike the barbarians that flooded the late Roman Empire, the birth rates of our modern external proletariat are collapsing everywhere except Sub-Saharan Africa (for example, France has a higher birth rate than Iran or Algeria).DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-29465456294190137942017-02-10T14:59:22.892-08:002017-02-10T14:59:22.892-08:00Friday’s temperatures very near the North Pole are...Friday’s temperatures very near the North Pole are about 50 degrees warmer than normal, according to a temperature analysis by NOAA. Yes, that's FIFTY degrees. And denialist cultists are genuinely insane. I mean, isn't it a known trait of insane people that they deny it? So their denying they are crazy means squat. What matters is the testimony of fact and objective reality.<br /><br />And by the testimony of objective and factual reality, you cultists are stark jibbering crazy. Which would be your privilege, if you weren't directly harming the planet our children need. And savaging our republic, the best hope of humankind.<br /><br />https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/02/10/its-about-50-degrees-warmer-than-normal-near-the-north-pole/?utm_term=.306a11f3ebcbDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-22671713944541204972017-02-10T14:56:39.258-08:002017-02-10T14:56:39.258-08:00Like many people, I have been trying to figure out...Like many people, I have been trying to figure out what happened this election. Why did America elect someone like Trump as president? Then I came across this:<br /><br />https://www.inverse.com/article/23750-cliodynamics-america-cycle-of-violence-donald-trump<br /><br />So it turns out that there is a very simple explanation: America goes insane every 50 years or so. Each 50 year cycle culminates in a wave of insanity that includes several patterns that repeat themselves over and over again with progress followed by backlash:<br /><br />Economically - Rural vs. Urban in a fight over economic growth and opportunity.<br />Demographically - Natives vs. Immigrants, with a backlash against intrusive foreigners. <br />Culturally - Traditionalists v. Progressives, with expanded rights pitted against eroded privileges. <br />Politically - Liberals v. Conservatives, with a liberal president followed by a reactionary or corrupt president.<br /><br />Examining every 50 year cycle we see the following:<br /><br />2010s and 20s - Our recent election. <br /><br />Collapse of economic growth in rural heartland Red America compared to booming economies in urban bicoastal Blue America triggering a backlash against globalism. <br /><br />Hispanic and Asian immigrants triggering a nativist response from rural Whites over jobs and cultural identity. <br /><br />Marriage rights for Gays triggering a response form the Religious Right starting with Nan Davis in Kentucky 2 years ago. <br /><br />Liberal Obama followed by racist/corrupt Trump.<br /><br />1960s and 70s - The Groovy Sixties. <br /><br />Cities from Watts to Detroit to Newark burning. Ford tells nearly bankrupt NYC to drop dead. But rural America is enjoying a "Mayberry" Golden Age.<br /><br />Black "immigrants" moving into cities followed by White flight to the suburbs. <br /><br />Sex, drugs and rock and roll (along with Civil Rights, Women's Lib, etc.) v. traditional family values. <br /><br />Liberal Kennedy/Johnson followed by corrupt Nixon.<br /><br />1910s to 20s - The Roaring Twenties. <br /><br />Rural America faces economic hard time, effectively experiencing the depression a decade before the rest of the country. <br /><br />Massive influx of Catholic and Jewish immigrants from southern and eastern Europe, and Black migration to northern cities triggers a rebirth of the KKK (which had all but disappeared in the late 19th century). <br /><br />Flappers, jazz and bathtub gin v. prohibitionists. <br /><br />Progressive Teddy Roosevelt followed by racist Woodrow Wilson and corrupt Warren Harding.<br /><br />1860s to 70s - Civil War and Reconstruction. <br /><br />Agrarian rural South fighting industrialized urban North. <br /><br />Influx of Irish Catholics and emancipation leads to birth of KKK. <br /><br />Reconstruction v. traditional Southern society. <br /><br />Lincoln followed by corrupt Grant administration.<br /><br />1820s to 30s - Young America. <br /><br />Birth of industrialism begins to erode the dominance of slave/rural Southern states. Basic argument over what vision should guide America begins - Hamilton's industrial/powerful America vs. Jefferson's agricultural/virtuous America (the argument continues to this day).<br /><br />Know Nothings oppose immigration especially Catholics. <br /><br />Abolitionists v slave owners and Jacksonian populism v. aristocratic government. <br /><br />The intellectual John Quincy Adams followed by Andrew Jackson (the Trump of early America).<br /><br />In every case, economic, demographic, cultural, and political progress/change of the previous decades is partial undone by a backlash. It's a two steps forward and one step back rhythm, but with the net movement being forward. Judging from history Trump and delay or partially reverse social change.<br /><br />But he can't stop it.DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-61200175424236241722017-02-10T14:41:07.234-08:002017-02-10T14:41:07.234-08:00Reading a little further, it seems bizarre to me t...Reading a little further, it seems bizarre to me that <b>Americans</b> can be ok with this. If this is what they knowingly voted for, then I really didn't know my country, and I can honestly paraphrase Michelle Obama and say that I've never been <b>less</b> proud of my country:<br /><br /><i><br />It viewed humanism, the Renaissance, the Protestant Reformation and the French Revolution all as historical disasters that took man further away from a transcendental perennial truth.<br /><br />Changing the system, Evola argued, was “not a question of contesting and polemicizing, but of blowing everything up.”<br /><br />Evola’s ideal order, Professor Drake wrote, was based on “hierarchy, caste, monarchy, race, myth, religion and ritual.”<br /><br />That made a fan out of Benito Mussolini.<br />...<br />Evola eventually broke with Mussolini and the Italian Fascists because he considered them overly tame and corrupted by compromise. Instead he preferred the Nazi SS officers, seeing in them something closer to a mythic ideal. They also shared his anti-Semitism.<br /></i>LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-45985802493161182692017-02-10T14:33:45.286-08:002017-02-10T14:33:45.286-08:00This article makes a strong case that liberals scr...This article makes a strong case that liberals screwed themselves over and have nobody to blame for Trump but themselves (and I speak as a liberal)<br /><br />http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/2/9/14543938/richard-rorty-liberalism-vietnam-donald-trump-obama<br /><br />>Members of labor unions, and unorganized unskilled workers, will sooner or later realize that their government is not even trying to prevent wages from sinking or to prevent jobs from being exported. Around the same time, they will realize that suburban white-collar workers – themselves desperately afraid of being downsized – are not going to let themselves be taxed to provide social benefits for anyone else.<br /><br />>At that point, something will crack. The nonsuburban electorate will decide that the system has failed and start looking for a strongman to vote for – someone willing to assure them that, once he is elected, the smug bureaucrats, tricky lawyers, overpaid bond salesmen, and postmodernist professors will no longer be calling the shots.<br />DPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07087941506162882852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-53952315441725517542017-02-10T14:16:07.168-08:002017-02-10T14:16:07.168-08:00From the New York Times article:
In the days afte...From the New York Times article:<br /><i><br />In the days after the election, Mr. Spencer led a Washington alt-right conference in chants of “Hail Trump!” But he also invoked Evola’s idea of a prehistoric and pre-Christian spirituality — referring to the awakening of whites, whom he called the Children of the Sun.<br /></i><br /><br />It seems bizarre to me that evangelical Christians would be ok with this.<br /><br />LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36189733807057099812017-02-10T12:52:17.124-08:002017-02-10T12:52:17.124-08:00Regards Evola article.
Read it.
In good NYT fash...Regards Evola article.<br /><br />Read it.<br /><br />In good NYT fashion it quotes this Spencer fellow much more than Bannon himself. The discussion on the topic seems rather esoteric.<br /><br />Bannon at least appears to be widely read.<br /><br />TacitusTacitushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17007086196578740689noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-66156926581570615682017-02-10T12:16:05.078-08:002017-02-10T12:16:05.078-08:00Hmm. Michael Flynn was a result of government spy...Hmm. Michael Flynn was a result of government spying upon government.<br />Might be more of a case of entre'veillance. Zepp Jamiesonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16261339498383415026noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-85789924216688194912017-02-10T11:57:11.459-08:002017-02-10T11:57:11.459-08:00Alfred Differ:
(On mobile today. Recovering from ...Alfred Differ:<br /><i><br />(On mobile today. Recovering from a surgery. Doing well too.)<br /></i><br /><br />Hope you weren't wounded in a duel. :)<br /><br />Be well.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-15208681477159902622017-02-10T11:45:27.033-08:002017-02-10T11:45:27.033-08:00@ratio; I got your reference and got a smile out o...@ratio; I got your reference and got a smile out of turning it around. <br /><br />The US revolution can be linked to political upheaval in Britain and France by seeing it as an enlightenment revolution that had a hot phase all the way up to 1849 or so. Many opposed it and some supporters switched sides later. Socialist group would be cast as traitors in that view.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-54797740274511693512017-02-10T11:42:23.174-08:002017-02-10T11:42:23.174-08:00@ratio; I got your reference and got a smile out o...@ratio; I got your reference and got a smile out of turning it around. <br /><br />The US revolution can be linked to political upheaval in Britain and France by seeing it as an enlightenment revolution that had a hot phase all the way up to 1849 or so. Many opposed it and some supporters switched sides later. Socialist group would be cast as traitors in that view.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-50820193990370768352017-02-10T11:30:53.929-08:002017-02-10T11:30:53.929-08:00Jumper;
I took my corporate responsibility seriou...Jumper;<br /><br />I took my corporate responsibility seriously. Only one ended in debt and that was to another partner who helped it end that way. <br /><br />Limited liability should protect less involved investors. Those of us in the thick of it should get credit checks like the company does when borrowing. Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-8683613824019422702017-02-10T11:23:37.589-08:002017-02-10T11:23:37.589-08:00@Duncan; You and others might be giving to much cr...@Duncan; You and others might be giving to much credit to Marshall plan. It was good, but western Europe did more to lift itself than we did. Helping hand when it was needed, but they did the hardest part.<br /><br />(On mobile today. Recovering from a surgery. Doing well too.)Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-62496706413355650262017-02-10T10:55:29.701-08:002017-02-10T10:55:29.701-08:00Marino: "You forgot the most Marxist sci-fi e...Marino: <i>"You forgot the most Marxist sci-fi even written: Jack london, The iron heel."</i><br /><br />That wasn't forgetting - it was not knowing. Thanks for the tip - I had no idea that this had served as a point of inspiration for Orwell's 1984 (though I haven't read London since junior high).donzelionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05991849781932619746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-70290417998765090202017-02-10T10:45:30.127-08:002017-02-10T10:45:30.127-08:00Dr. Brin: "donzel you think the Saudis oppose...Dr. Brin: <i>"donzel you think the Saudis oppose caliphate?"</i><br /><br />More of a loaded question than you may realize. But first, let's correct this inaccurate view:<br /><br /><i>"They just expected it would (naturally) fall upon their house."</i><br />That is completely wrong. They explicitly renounced any such claim, repeatedly, and at every stage of governance. When faced with a civil war on this precise subject, that renunciation was their quite effective tactic to prevail, and why (most) clergy backed them. The fact that the clergy backed them meant that they didn't need to pay most of their troops in the 1930s (unlike their rivals), making a much larger, cheaper army possible.<br /><br />The King's first title is "Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques" - he is sworn to be the 'steward' until the 'true' caliph emerges, at which point, he will be demoted to a mere 'governor' within the caliphate (unless the 'true' caliph removes them...). So of course, the Saudi royals 'welcome' the caliphate......some (very distant) day.<br /><br />That hesitation is a primary driver for AQ, Daesh (ISIS), and a number of Islamist militant groups, who accuse the Saudis of blocking the path toward a caliphate. That claim actually goes back decades (the civil war that resolved it resulted in, among other things, a victory through use of some Western guns - paid for with debts to Britain - which the nearly bankrupt Kingdom granted a certain oil concession to America to pay off...).<br /><br />When you read nostalgic/romantic notions about the caliphate, you assume there's an underlying plot. You may be right, but if there is a plot, it was never to become the caliphs themselves, so much as to maintain the power they do have against various claimants from within the region by setting unrealistic requirements in place for a 'true' caliph.donzelionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05991849781932619746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-15060993182796128012017-02-10T10:28:35.037-08:002017-02-10T10:28:35.037-08:00Michael Flynn has apparently been busted for both ...Michael Flynn has apparently been busted for both discussing the sanctions against Russia with Putin's people before the election, and lying about it afterward. He was caught because the Russian with whom he spoke was subject to surveillance from US counterintelligence, and the agents know exactly what was discussed at the meeting - which we know about because unnamed officials who read the transcripts of the calls took their concerns to reporters.<br /><br />https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/09/us/flynn-is-said-to-have-talked-to-russians-about-sanctions-before-trump-took-office.html<br /><br />Dr. Brin, would this be an example of successful sousveillance?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11903687674146271189noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-86267955381470919502017-02-10T10:06:47.136-08:002017-02-10T10:06:47.136-08:00The Mad Librarian:
if the Republican base has an ...The Mad Librarian:<br /><i><br />if the Republican base has an intense dislike of change, how in the world did they flip from 'business as usual' to voting for the Rage Mango?<br /></i><br /><br />They saw the parade and figured they'd better jump to the front of it.<br /><br />I'm reminded of "Atlas Shrugged" after John Galt makes his 50-page radio address, when Mr Thompson tries to project the image that Galt is speaking for his leadership team. One of the others asks Mr Thompson "Do you want the people to think we <b>agree</b> with that?", to which Mr Thompson replies, somewhat shrewdly, "Do you want them to think we <b>don't</b>?"<br /><br />LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-45754485264126762017-02-10T10:02:11.389-08:002017-02-10T10:02:11.389-08:00Robert Harris finally came out with the third book...Robert Harris finally came out with the third book in his Ancient Rome/Cicero trilogy, so I'm re-reading the first two books in advance of the third one. Because of the time frame, the novels depict the fall of the Roman Republic and the rise of the dictatorship which became the Roman Empire.<br /><br />The parallels to today's headlines are stark, and yes, democracy does fall "to thunderous applause."<br />LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-86987981121212084202017-02-10T09:43:48.027-08:002017-02-10T09:43:48.027-08:00Catfish, thanks for that article you linked to. I...Catfish, thanks for that article you linked to. I urge you all to click and look. We are quite literally fighting for our lives.<br /><br />That includes you Tacitus2. Please read it. We are no longer asking you to leave the Republican Party. It long ago left you. Now it is too blatant. Come out. Get fed up. You will feel cleaner.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-43588151762411917942017-02-10T09:08:22.087-08:002017-02-10T09:08:22.087-08:00Robert, if the Republican base has an intense disl...Robert, if the Republican base has an intense dislike of change, how in the world did they flip from 'business as usual' to voting for the Rage Mango? He ran on a platform of change! I submit they pretend to not want change, but will grasp at straws if they think they will get something they want.TheMadLibrariannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-58475160243822337492017-02-10T08:13:17.987-08:002017-02-10T08:13:17.987-08:00Thanks, Catfish. This suggests Bannon is a Thelemi...Thanks, Catfish. This suggests Bannon is a Thelemite of the Golden Dawn school. Crowley's branch of rites. "Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the Law. Love is the law, love under will." Also ripped off by American poser Anton LaVey who stole it from Ayn Rand.Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.com