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Wednesday, December 03, 2025

Four More Urgent Proposals for a 'Newer Deal' to Save our Great Experiment

Our series on a Newer Deal for America has offered 30+ proposed actions that Democrats and their allies should consider now -- and work out kinks -- so they can hit the ground forcefully when they retake Congress, in (or with defection of a dozen Republican patriots, before) January 2027.  

Some of the concepts have been around a while, like canceling the Citizens United travesty. Others are my own originals, like establishing the office of Inspector General of the United States (discussed here.) And some, e.g. giving every Congress member one peremptory subpoena per session, might seem obscure, even puzzling to you, til you slap your forehead and go of course!

And yes, we'd not be in our current mess if some of these -- like IGUS -- had been enacted sooner.

This is not to say that Democratic politicians aren't learning. When Clinton and Obama were president for 8 years each, they only had the first two in which to work with Democratic Congresses, and those two years were pretty-much squandered trying desperately to find Republicans willing to negotiate -- a hopeless wish, after Dennis Hastert banned all GOP politicians from even talking to Democratic colleagues.

That all changed when Biden got in. Immediately in 2021, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer -- aided vigorously by Bernie, Liz and AOC etc. -- leaped into action, giving us a year of miracle bills like the Infrastructure Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHiPs Act, and Medicare drug price negotiation... all of them spectacular successes that disprove every insipid far-left sneer about 'ineffective DNC sellouts.' 

Though now we know that those bills went nowhere near far enough!

Hence, while I despair that these proposals will ever receive even a scintilla of attention or action, it is still my duty as an American to offer whatever my talents allow. 

So, let's take a closer look at four more from that list of ideas!


 == Four more ideas ==

History shows that Americans are suspicious of grand prescriptions for sweeping change. They like progress and reform! But in increments. Steps forward that prove themselves and thusly can't be taken back, and thereupon serve as a new, higher plateau, from which new steps can be launched. Bernie, Liz, AOC, Pete and the rest of the pragmatic left know this.

And so, let's change the argument over healthcare!  Let's increment forward in a way that will surely pass. One that makes further progress inevitable. We'll do this by taking a big step that can easily be afforded under present budgets and thus cancel the "how will you pay for it?" argument.

A step that will prove so popular, only political morons would oppose it.


THE HEALTHY CHILDREN ACT will provide basic coverage for all of the nation's youths to receive preventive care and needed medical attention.  Should adults still get insurance using market methods? That can be argued separately... 

 

...but under this act: all U.S. citizens under the age of 25 shall immediately qualify as “seniors” under Medicare. 



Such a bill might fit on a single sheet of paper. Possibly just that one sentence, above! Ponder how elegantly simple it will be to add a quarter of the U.S. population to Medicare and ignore howls of "who pays for it?"  


While overall, young people are cheap to insure and generally healthy, when they do need care it is SO in society's interest to leap upon any problem! And hence a national priority, if only as an investment in the future. 


A great nation should see to it that the young reach adulthood without being handicapped by preventable sickness. It's an affordable step that will relieve the nation’s parents of stressful worry. 

 

Moreover, watch how quickly the insurance companies would then step up to negotiate! Especially if they face a 'ratchetting squeeze.' Like if every year the upper bound of Medicare goes down by a year -- from 65 to 64 and then 63... while the lower bound rises from 25 to 26 to 27...

Oh, they'll negotiate, all right.

And now another no-brainer that's absolutely needed. 

It was needed yesterday.


THE PROFESSIONALISM ACT will protect the apolitical independence of our intelligence agencies, the FBI, the scientific and technical staff in executive departments and in Congress, and the United States Military Officer Corps.  All shall be given safe ways to report attempts at political coercion or meddling in their ability to give unbiased advice. 

 Whistle-blower protections will be strengthened. The federal Inspectorate will gather and empower all agency Inspectors General and Judges Advocate General under the independent and empowered Inspector General of the United States (IGUS).


Yes, this correlates with the proposed law we discussed last time, to establish IGUS and the Inspectorate, independent of all other branches of government. (A concept once promoted by the mighty Sun Yatsen!) And boy do we need this, right now.

Again, this one doesn't require much explication. Not anymore. Donald Trump has seen to that.

The final pair (for today) do call for some explanation... before their value ought to become obvious!


THE TRUTH AND RECONCILIATION ACT:  Without interfering in the president's constitutional right to issue pardons for federal offenses, Congress will pass a law defining the pardon process, so that all persons who are excused for either convictions or possible crimes must at least explain those crimes, under oath, before an open congressional committee, before walking away from them with a presidential pass. 

 

If the crime is not described in detail, then a pardon cannot apply to any excluded portion. Further, we shall issue a challenge that no president shall ever issue more pardons than both of the previous administrations, combined.


If it is determined that a pardon was given on quid pro quo for some bribe, emolument, gift or favor, then this act clarifies that such pardons are - and always were, by definition - null and void. Moreover, this applies retroactively for any such pardons in the past.

 

We will further reverse the current principle of federal supremacy in criminal cases that forbids states from prosecuting for the same crime. Instead, one state with grievance in a federal case may separately try the culprit for a state offense, which - upon conviction by jury - cannot be excused by presidential pardon.


Congress shall act to limit the effect of Non-Disclosure Agreements (NDAs)that squelch public scrutiny of officials and the powerful. With arrangements to exchange truth for clemency, both current and future NDAs shall decay over a reasonable period of time. 

 

Incentives such as clemency will draw victims of blackmail to come forward and expose their blackmailers.

 


I'm not sure how to make that one any clearer than the wording itself. 

Again, when I first proposed these reforms, years ago, people shrugged with "Why would we need that?"

But now? Can anything make the case for these acts better than the news that we see every... single... day?

The next and final one (for today) makes a good partner to the Truth & Reconciliation Act.


THE IMMUNITY LIMITATION ACT: The Supreme Court has ruled that presidents should be free to do their jobs without undue distraction by legal procedures and jeopardies. Taking that into account, we shall nevertheless – by legislation – firmly reject the artificial and made-up notion of blanket Presidential Immunity or that presidents are inherently above the law. 

 

Instead, the Inspector General of the United States (IGUS) shall supervise legal cases that are brought against the president, so that they may be handled by the president’s chosen counsel in order of importance or severity, in such a way that the sum of all such external legal matters will take up no more than ten hours a week of a president’s time. While this may slow such processes, the wheels of law will not be fully stopped. 

 

Civil or criminal cases against a serving president may be brought to trial by a simple majority consent of both houses of Congress, though no criminal or civil punishment may be exacted until after the president leaves office, either by end-of-term or impeachment and Senate conviction.

Again, could anything be more clear? And so, why have we not seen these two enacted yet? Because of flawed assumptions!  Like assuming that nothing can be done about corrupt presidential pardons. Or that NDAs are forever. Or that nothing can be done about the Supreme Court's declaration of Presidential Immunity.

But the Court - suborned as its current majority may be - felt it necessary to issue that ruling based on a rationalization! That the elected chief executive must do the job without undue harassment by legal vexations. Indeed, this bill would solve that! Only without creating a wholly new and wholly loathesome notion of presidential immunity above all law!

Just like the Roberts Rationalization for excusing gerrymandering, this immunity justification can be logically bypassed. Please do ponder how.

Oh but I suddenly realized... we need to add one more paragraph to that bill! 

One that deals with something that came up recently. Might a president evade impeachment merely by shooting enough House members to prevent a majority from acting to impeach him? 

Trump's own attorney argued that he could! And that he would be immune from prosecution for doing so Until he was actually impeached and convicted, which he just prevented via murder!

 This added paragraph attempts to seal off that insane possibility.


In the event that Congress is thwarted from acting on impeachment or trial, e.g. by some crime that prevents certain members from voting, their proxies may be voted in such matters by their party caucus, until their states complete election of replacements.


That may not fly past today's Court. But the declaration of intent will resonate, still, if we ever need it to. 


      == Add judo to the game plan to save America! ==

Can you honestly assert that ANY of these four would fail the "60%+ Rule?"  

The initial tranche of reforms should be ones that get sixty percent approval from polls or focus groups, so that they can pass quickly, clearing away the most vital things, building further support from a growing American majority. Saving the harder political fights for just a little later. 

That was the persuasive trick of Newt Gingrich's "Contract With America." A clever ruse, since he and his party later betrayed every promise that they offered in their Contract! Still, sticking to that rule made the Contract an ingenious sales pitch.

Democrats run a gamut, but they truly are generally different! As Pelosi, Schumer, Warren, AOC, Sanders et. al. proved in 2021, Democrats can act hard and fast, when they put their minds to it. 

So now, let's fill their minds with innovative and bold ideas! So that when the nation rises up against the current mad administration, we'll be ready for a genuine Miracle Year.


106 comments:

  1. Dr. Brin,

    Rather than forcing law enforcement to prove that a pardon was obtained on a quid pro quo basis, it should be enough to nuffify a pardon if law enforcement can prove that ANY consideration passed between the person who received the pardon and the president (or near relatives) with in a specified time frame.

    This would apply to consideration that passed say 5 years prior to the crime and 5 years after the pardon. And yes, this is specifically targeted at the Marc Rich situation where Mrs. Rich gave a max campaign donation to HIllary's Senate campaign after her snake of a husband got a completely unjustified pardon from Bill.

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  2. Dr Brin in the main post:

    Might a president evade impeachment merely by shooting enough House members to prevent a majority from acting to impeach him?


    A while back, someone on line posited this hypothetical question as if speaking to the Roberts court. From memory as best as I can recall:

    "So you're saying the president could walk in here and machine-gun all of you, and as long as his party holds the Senate, he could not only get away with the murders, but appoint all nine of your successors? You're really ok with that?"

    ReplyDelete
  3. JV my objective is to get quick passage. Hey I agree with you. But for posting, I gotta keep it simple or else it's tl;dr

    ReplyDelete
  4. Btw, the reason Marc.Rich came.off.the top.of.my head is there was no.provable quid pro quo but an obvious questionable act. It would also apply to block a president from pardoning scoundrels.who do their dirty work. Trump, for example.would then be blocked from pardoning Rudy Giuliani or Steve Bannon. Or say, cry by to silence him fixer Michael Cohen by promising a pardon in return for loyalty..

    I do get the n benefit of brevity. Throw out the basic idea and let the specialists execute it. However, the problem is a lot of times politicians give us reform theater, where they poison pill reform bills with loopholes that frustrate what the rule is purported to achieve.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Here (NZ) a bill starts with the "Purpose Statement" - the reason for the bill - so it's much more difficult to poison the bill with loopholes

      Delete
    2. IIRC, Clinton pardoned Marc Rich as he was literally on his way out of the White House for the final time. Presidents often issue pardons as their final act. Probably because before Trump, a president pardoning cronies the way Trump does would have led to an impeachment and conviction.

      The Roberts court may not be entirely out of bounds when they say that the courts are being asked to deal with the fact that Congress refuses to do their job. I think the court goes too far in asserting blanket immunity for the president (who was never meant to be a king), but the fact is that there is a Constitutional remedy for DJT-style presidential misconduct: impeachment and removal. Only in the age of Dennis Hastert and Mitch McConnell has it become impossible for any congresspeople to consider removing an incompetent or rogue president from office if he belongs to their party.

      Delete
    3. Duncan, yes I think that is essential. It is also a help for the courts.

      Delete
  5. Off-topic, but share-worthy:
    A doomerish discussion of "Children of Man" and the Jackpot series of novels by William Gibson, presenred by Damian Walter:
    https://youtu.be/n6czzarv3tM?si=rpfQM_phc9svxFjS

    ReplyDelete
  6. JV I considered adding a codicil to the pardon section that I think cleverly would cancel out maybe a MAJORITY of Trump's evil pardons.
    REVERSE the current principle of federal supremacy in criminal cases that forbid's states from prosecuting for the same crime. Instead ENCOURAGE a state with grievance in a federal case to try the culprit for a state offense. If convicted, that felon might - even despite a presidential pardon for federal offenses - still be held under state charges!

    ReplyDelete
  7. Restated: "
    We will further reverse the current principle of federal supremacy in criminal cases that forbids states from prosecuting for the same crime. Instead, one state with grievance in a federal case may separately try the culprit for a state offense, which is not covered by presidential pardon."

    Thanks JV

    ReplyDelete
  8. On Topic:
    So far, you have presented many suggestions that aim at structural components of governing, and you might be right.
    But I don't believe it to be enough.

    The core question, for me, remains largely unanswered:

    How to prevent people to vote for the Far Right.

    This TED talk makes an analysis of the voter base of these parties in Europe:

    https://youtu.be/3913fIgBFhs?si=DpCTRm5L4shYrph4

    Takeaway 1: Reduce insecurity, material and otherwise.
    Takeaway 2: Don't Copy the Far Right. Contradict them.

    ReplyDelete
  9. If you don’t want people to vote for the “far right” (i.e. those who don’t believe in the religion of Western progressivism), here’s two easy things you can do:

    1) Stop the mass immigration, woke propaganda, etc. that makes people feel insecure in their own lands and that their identities and cultures are being targeted for extinction by hostile elites.

    2) Stop promoting weird, unpopular cultural policies like normalized transsexualism, and weirdo authoritarian policies like covid vaccines.

    Basically, stop being weirdos pushing elite weirdo shit on people who don’t want it. Forget all these complicated proposals, bullet points, legal changes, political maneuvers, etc., becuz it’s ain’t about that. It’s the upside down weirdo sh*t, you boomer weirdos. But then, doing this would probably make you “far right”—the progressive equivalent of being in league with the Devil. Never mind.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What makes you think we can stop mass migration from the south once global warming makes those lands unlivable?

      Delete
    2. How do you feel about weirdo authoritarian policies like quarantines? And if people like you are too stupid to get vaccinated why should the rest of us care?

      Delete
    3. Re: migration, I'm not talking about some hypothetical future, I'm talking about right now.

      Re: vaccines, I don't care if you care whether I get vaccinated, and you don't have to care if I get vaccinated.

      Delete
    4. Blah blah de blah blah. Made up crap spewed by Treebeard.

      Not once have I ever seen MAGA fanattics present STATISTICS about the immigration thing. Jobs lost. Children who don't adapt instantly to American values. It's all a masturbatory yowl... though yes, an EFFECTIVE ONE! The farthest left ARE imbeciled for ignoring how effective a tool it has been for Putin etc to drive hapless refugees across boders and turn western voters rightward.

      Hence, did immigration need reform? THERE WERE REFORMS READY TO GO negotiated under Obama with some bright and resigually sane republicans and they all were tossed out by their own party. GOP leaders OPENLY declared they would keep the borders porous in order to help Putin achieve his magic.

      OPENLY!!

      Show us the "Wall" that Trump built, goombah, despite having Congress in his 1st two years. SHOW US! Obama and Clinton each built more walls and cambers and deported more than Trump. Moreover you know it, you incredible liar.

      Doe the liberal wing contain some asses who push absurd symbolism crap? Sure. Your entire party and culture CONSTISTS of such. Those are two very different words. Our side has Bill Mahers who criticize our side's idiots. YOU fecal spewers rave anything at all that you are told-to. But above all else. Hatred of facts and science.

      Delete
    5. I won't care TB.

      As the old saying goes: God is merciful and loving, mother nature is a cruel bitch. As far as mother nature is concerned stupidity is a capital offense from which there is no appeal.

      As such there will be fewer right wing anti vaxxers each election cycle.

      Delete
    6. Nothing hypothetical about global warming it's already happening and we've already crashed through enough tipping points to make irreversible.

      Delete

    7. If you don’t want people to vote for the “far right” (i.e. those who don’t believe in the religion of Western progressivism)...


      Huh? Most of you right-wingers believe that no one is qualified to succeed in business or engineering or science or politics except for white men. That's about as Western as it gets.


      I don't care if you care whether I get vaccinated, and you don't have to care if I get vaccinated.


      I don't care if you die of COVID. I care that you want to spread it.

      I do care if you prevent those who do want to be vaccinated from being able to do so.


      Stop promoting weird, unpopular cultural policies like normalized transsexualism, and weirdo authoritarian policies like covid vaccines.


      So to stop people from feeling like voting for bigotry and fantasy, we should be more open to bigotry and fantasy? To stop people from voting to erase any mention of women or minorities from history, we should erase such mentions ourselves? To keep people from voting to be mean to the powerless, we should be mean to the powerless ourselves?


      But then, doing this would probably make you “far right”—the progressive equivalent of being in league with the Devil.


      You say that as if it demonstrates an absurdity on our part. No, it really is the hill we'll die (or win) on.

      Delete
    8. No, Treebeard, that is the opposite of what I suggested.

      While I recognize that there are a lot of racists and sexists like you in the Far Right votership, most people have no interest in their bedrooms governed by fascists of your ilk. Most of them also want free access to abortions, polls say.

      In addition, they want things people like you want to deny them, out of psychopathy and sadism: Affordable healthcare and housing, three healthy meals a day, a secure job, and education for their kids, not bullets in schools.

      You and your ilk of pedo worshippers and billionaires whores have only one tool in your box, and that is to stoke fear, because fear and sadism are the only human emotions you are capable of understanding - which makes you the sexual pervert, not the people you dream of sending into the gas.

      And why all this? Because the likes of you do not care about ordinary people, only about grifting the shit out of this world before you leave it burning down to cinders, and satisfying your deranged necrosexual appetites.
      (Maybe we should check your neighborhood of missing children and women, especially of colour and in prostitution, just to be sure.)

      Because your sides' economic theories have not only failed but drown in the gutter, pulling anyone else with it into the abyss and ending a cocaine-filled 45 year old dream.

      What people want is that the promises of the social contract are kept again.
      That dilligence and hard work matter.
      That they can afford the necessities of life and safety against the tides of fate.
      That they can live in a state that provides for justice, welfare and domestic tranquility as promised 250 years ago.

      That's what I meant.

      Delete
    9. If you didn't notice, Treebeard, is that 10 years ago, those weren't the big "far right" issues--certainly not vaccines.

      So even if we did concede those points, the far right would come up with a bunch of other issues we would have to concede before you'd vote for us.

      IOW, you'd only vote for us if we were "far right." And then you'd still find some reason not to vote for us, because it's really all about having an enemy to fight, not about any particular issues.

      Delete
    10. Fun fact, all flatearthers are transphobes and antivax.

      Delete
    11. IOW, you'd only vote for us if we were "far right." And then you'd still find some reason not to vote for us

      Stonekettle once asserted that American voters don't mind the things that Democrats do--they just want Republicans to be the ones doing them. And since Republicans won't do those things, that's why voters are always in such a state of disappointment.

      Delete
  10. Oh and I care that you are helping a cult for which vaccine opposition (COUNT the different death rates, fool) is merely one more excrudence of a mad cultural war against science. BET NOW on measurable metrics of climate change, from ocean acidification to numbers of days that broke all records, not just in hot summers but warmed artcic pushing ice storms south into the USA. Buffoon.

    ReplyDelete
  11. SMBC is always great, but I'm not sure I get this one:
    https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/on-the-edge

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am pretty sure I don't get it! - must be some backstory I missed

      Delete
    2. I think it's an in joke. If you already know what they're talking about, then it makes sense.

      Delete
  12. Good. It's not just me.

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  13. Dr. Brin,

    Your codicil would probably be unconstitutional, bc it would pretty much create an end run around ANY criminal pardon. So its too broad. My idea of nullifying a pardon if u can show any consideration (a legal term which means anything of value) flowed in either direction from.the president and the pardonee would limit the restriction on the pardon power to potential conflicts of interest situations.

    Even that !imitation could easily be ruled unconstitutional because I suspect there's ample precedent of presidential pardons under such circumstances, and thus such a limit would require an amendment.

    But, the main point is we.need to get some clever legislators to find a way to limit that pardon power to prevent the president from using.it to.hide his or her own misconduct.

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  14. Supes supported Texas Cheaters (Republicans). Um duh? And you expected anything else? Roberts, Thomas, Gorsuch Kavanagh are in survival mode. If democracy functions, the rising of America against tyranny by the risen Confederacy will bring downfall to the neo plantation lords and their lackeys, at which point, Kremlin-held kompromat will flow like a fetid lake, released by a broken dam.
    What disappoints me is that Dems have never had the wit to judo away Roberts's rationalizations for supporting gerrymandering. They are VERY specific and very easily countered, logically, and no dem has (to the extent I have seen) even tried.
    Likewise the rationalization that the President must be legally immune because otherwise he cannot execute his vital functions... and there is an answer to that, too! Which is in my current blog posting. And it's not been mentioned by a single politician or pundit on the good/blue/union side.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sigh. There's been a long history of Texas Cheaters. The farthest back I'm aware of, goes back to LBJ and Billy Sol Estes (he of the $21 million per year grain subsidy scam. That's in 60's dollars by the way, so it's more like $200 million per year). LBJ was also embroiled with Bobby Baker, who was under a congressional inquiry when JFK was assassinated.

      Many sources claim Baker was poised to testify against LBJ for an Abscam-like scandal until he clammed up when LBJ became President. Of course, most of those are JFK conspiracy theorists...and well, lots of people have opinions about the Kennedy assisinations.

      Lot of corruption allegations have been lodged against the Bushes, Dick Cheney, John Connelly, and a raft for former Governors.

      Delete
  15. Eek! Look up "edging.' the slang term used in SMBC is especially disgusting in this context.

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    Replies
    1. Google has to link to a video that shows "how to do it"???

      We live in the stupidest timeline.

      Delete
  16. More names for sleepy Don, heard on Stephanie Miller's show:

    Rape Van Winkle
    Don Snoreleone

    ReplyDelete
  17. Socialism is really popular - especially in the heartland.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEvmVfuPKtE

    ‘SOCIALISM WINS’: Fox News Host Issues DIRE WARNING To MAGA

    Question that we hear a lot on this
    channel. Where has it ever worked?
    Without missing a beat, the first guy
    said Norway. Second guy chimes in and
    says Sweden and Finland. Now look, we
    can debate that and we kind of did those
    models. But the takeaway here is that
    when I said socialism, their mental
    image was not bread lines in Cuba or the
    former Soviet Union. It was free
    healthcare and generous vacation
    packages in Scandinavia.

    Because yes, those countries are not
    like pure socialist countries. Everybody
    knows that. But on in on the spectrum of
    politics and economics, they're much
    further to the left. Yes, they have
    elements of capitalism. Yes, they have
    elements of socialism. We have a lot
    more capitalism and a lot less socialism
    here in this country. But yes, those
    countries that have more socialism and
    less capitalism, they self-report being
    way [ __ ] happier. They have higher
    quality of life. They have better health
    outcomes. They have more vacation time.
    They have higher wages. You go down the
    line of, you know, the metrics that you
    would grade a civilized society on, and
    they're kicking our ass in virtually
    everyone. And so yes, it like guess
    what? Eventually people figured out,
    hold on, why do we not have paid
    vacation time by law, but every other
    developed country does. I don't get
    that. I don't get that. People caught on
    to it. They were like, oh well that's
    [ __ ] We should have that, right? I
    mean, that's just one example, but like
    paid sick leave, paid vacation time by
    law, higher wages where a lot of the
    Scandinavian countries, they have like
    everybody's in a union, so you don't
    even need a minimum wage cuz the lowest
    wage is still higher than what a minimum
    wage would be.

    Capitalism OTOH means the billionaire 1% owning 90% of the country and controlling our politics, corporations laying innocent people off so a CEO can reduce salary costs and goose their stock value and bonus, John Deere not letting farmers repair their own tractors or Monsanto forcing farmers to buy more productive seed, people can't get affordable health care or housing.....

    Compared to Scandinavia, America is a shithole country.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Netherlands and Switzerland have their benefits, too.

      Delete
  18. And if people like you are too stupid to get vaccinated why should the rest of us care? As such there will be fewer right wing anti vaxxers each election cycle.

    Celt endorses the above 'alternative facts', even though numerous retrospective studies show that those rightwing antivaxxers had a valid point, as they are much more numerous today than they were pre-pandemic, having faired no better & no worse than the completely vaccinated.

    From socialism to inclusivity to COVID, we see this same pattern over & over as progressives shamelessly revise history in order to bolster the validity of an imperfect worldview that assumes a causal relationship between legislative action & human perfectibility.

    In the US & the EU, it is the Right which is the rising political demographic:

    Trump won the 2024 election with 49.8% of the US popular vote; Sweden's rightwing block recently received 42.5% of the popular vote in their elections; France's National Rally claimed almost 34% of the French vote in their elections; and Germany's AfD now controls 25% of the German vote according to DW.

    These are the REAL FACTS rather than the inane ramblings of a leftwing magical thinker and, if faced with a collapsing economy, this political divergence can only grow more heated & extreme.


    Best
    ______

    "Eek!", says Dr Brin, upon discovering the true purpose of the internet, begging the question as to whether he'll revise his 'Transparent Society' to reflect this newly acquired data:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTJvdGcb7Fs

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  19. Celt ignores everything I have said about variants of socialism and of capitalism. The overly simplistic nomenclature is lobotomizing everyone!

    WHAT 'socialism'? Europeans use Social Democracy and it works for them to make very clear it has little or nothing to do with Marx or with the horrors of Leninism/Maoism. That attempt at cl;arifying has not worked here, in part because the right desperately prevents it and because our far-left is deeply stoopid and our moderate left has no comprehension of polemics.

    OPPORTUNITY socialism vs OUTCOME socialism is a good rule of thumb that could work. Adam Smith and the US Founders were all about feeding/educating children of the poor SO THAT THEY CAN COMPETE as confident - skilled adults. But our left's inability to say the c-word is a self-inflicted calamity.

    Likewise, 'capitalism' has phases that deserve different terms! MIDDLE capitalism is the most creative force society ever saw, as extolled by Smith and deeply admired by Marx. Indeed, Marx said that NO OTHER system can achieve the miracles of industrialization and production and elevation of an "advanced proletariate.'

    Yes, he predicted that the owner caste would narrow over time toward cabals and cartels and feudal castes, angering the advanced proletariate and this would coincide with 'completion of the means of production.'... which we know will NEVER happen. But the first part of that scenario... moguls scheming to restore feudalism... I used to deem that a failed prediction...

    ...but it seems ever more true in what looks more and more like Marx's Late Stage Capitalism.

    But I despair. No one is even remotely interested in that. In any of it. At all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Celt ignores everything I have said about variants of socialism and of capitalism.

      You may be missing his point. A FOX "News" host was essentially acknowledging that screaming "socialism" doesn't work for them as a boogie man the way it used to, because even among MAGA types, they equate the term more with things they actually like rather than with gulags and forced labor.

      Delete
  20. Skimmed. Locum doesn't try to defend the right as being correct or smart or deserving anymore, only that trend seem to favor the rise of a crap tide of idiots. And maybe it does, since out left and middle seem unable to parse the PUREST fact of the last 20 years...

    ... That Putin and our other enemies found that herding poor refugees across western borders ALWAYS swings voters to the right. And any leftist unwilling - for sanctimony reasons - to face that utterly pure tactical win for our enemies is thereby a stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid person and among the reasons why we may lose this fight.

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    Replies
    1. I disagree. For multiple reasons.

      The first thing is, the treatment of refugees is covered in various international treatments, and granting asylum to those under political persecution is actually part of our constitution.
      It is not sanctimony, it is adhering to the law. For me, our early 90s Asylum compromise was an affront, made possible by Springer.
      2) They are always moving to the next step. First it is refugees, next are migrants with work permits, then it is citizens with migrant roots. Oh, and the jews, of course, when they are no longer of use.
      3) The dishonesty or ignorance of your position is lack of insight into the situation, and any shred of responsibility for the millions of refugees US foreign policies created. To this day, I know Kurds - Kurds, of all people! - who say "We should have kept Saddam."
      It is further exacerbated by the lack of a workable plan. Sanctioning the elites is useless; they will just turn to Beijing, Teheran, Dubai, Riad and Moscow.

      Refugees are real people, Doctor.

      Just think how many souls could have been saved If Britain and the US had not turned away jewish and other Refugees from Nazi Germany (Which is the very reason Article 16 of our constitution exists).

      And it is not that we don't try. The reality of your policies is: An uncounted number of refugees is LED into the Sahara to die there, or outright shot, or improsend and enslaved in Lybia. Hundreds drown in the Mediterranean each year.

      The authoritarian President of Tunisia basically said, " fuck you and your bribe money".

      And there are the countries which truely ache under the immigration crisis: Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan.
      Maybe I have missed the executive order by both Obama and Biden alleviating that problem.

      Fourth: Academic research shows that by parottimg far right positions, centrists and conservatives win nothing and strengthen the Far Right.
      I wonder if you ever looked at that research.

      Delete
    2. Fifth: We have almost swallowed the 2015/16 waves. Migrant-hostile policies would critically endanger certain sectors: healthcare at the foremost, then construction, gastronomy and the "crafts" (that large sector of skilled labor still under the rules of guilds, from bakers and hair dressers to industry and commerce).

      The answer to the current trend is: Breaking Up the Far Right coalition by targeting the economicslly insecure and fearful, making/keeping life affordable, securing jobs, taxing the wealthy. The basics.

      (BTW: Tax in German (Steuer)is the same root as the word for piloting.
      You can affected behaviour by taxes.)

      The moment the social democrats return to their roots in my country, and maybe abjure the Russia-friendly Part, I will vote for them again, promised.

      Delete
  21. "Eek" referred to "Edging" and that smbc comic. As usual poor locum veers toward some random horizon. In this case apropos! Since the topic is masturbation.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Woof! Only Locum and Treebeard will love this AI generated meme. Can't say I like the message, even if it is 30% on-target, but boy is it funnly delivered.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmOB7MUMdjI

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hmmm. Typical right-wing what-passes-for-humor. Punching down.

      Yawn.

      Delete
  23. See --
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c04vdengk3do
    He's right about this. But the 'civilizational' traits under threat aren't white people in churches. (Which orange people never attend.) The core thing in danger is the Europe-spawned - but now worldwide - Enlightenment Experiment in flat-fair societies with freedom, science, transparency, accountability to law/justice and every generation of children able to re-invent themselves according to their abilities, instead of a fate pre-determined by their fathers.

    THAT is what the Putin-led cabal of oligarchs, blackmailers, princes, inheritance brats and self-made billionaire ingrates is bent on destroying, before the enlightenment value system can get embedded in one more, crucial generation. Their aim - to crush the resulting civilization and restore 6000 years of gruesomely horrible/stoopid feudalism - truly fits this headline, if not as the monstrously vile nescients mean it.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Der Oger, you utterly and utterly and even more utterly miss the point, finger wagging at me how morally we should welcome immigrants and how immigrants are net benefits and yeah, yeah, yeah. I am a grandson of immigrants and I know it and I want to continue the pure fact that the USA & Canada have welcomed VASTLY more than ALL the rest of the world, combined.

    And yet, if ALL barriers went down, the flood would be unsupportable, and you know it. All of America's critics are refuted by the pure fact that all the world wants to come here.

    Moreover, our immigrants become Americans. In most of the minority suberbs in Europe there is festering resentment and a fierce clinging to ancient hostilities. Go and walk through the Parisian Banlieus! If you dare.

    No, what's just sad is that you ignore the fundamental truth of what I said. That Putin and our enemies found a winning TACTIC that works. It absolutely works every single time. Europe has barely dodged the massive fascist swing that would have happened if things had continued. And desperately trying to make this a MORAL issue to distract from the effectiveness of the TACTIC is just dishonest.

    Dig it. We want to do good, liberal things. In order to do them we need political POWER. And that will entail finding a solution to the refugee TACTIC A tactic that so far has always, always... always worked.

    ReplyDelete
  25. "all the world wants to come here".

    That was very true until the 70's - then the USA fell behind Europe

    There are about 190 countries in the world - the USA is about 40th - the other 150 countries are below the USA and some of their citizens would love to go to the USA
    Today a substancial number of people from South America would love to go to the USA
    Most of Asia is moving to the point where they won't want to go to America

    If you guys STOPPED destabilising the South American countries then there would be less people wanting to flee those places
    The other main source of refugees are the conflicts in the Middle East - and Putin

    "If ALL barriers went down, the flood would be unsupportable"
    That is a short/medium term problem
    As the other countries catch up the pressure will drop


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Duncan if you were an adversary I'd demand wager stakes. But never mind.

      Delete
  26. A couple of weeks after I posted third missive about a Democratic Newer Dearl -30+ promises that both learned from and satirize the GOP “Contract” maneuver of 1994, while offering voters a clear agenda of positive steps, Economist and columnist Robert Reich issued a shorter list of “What Democrats Must Pledge to America.” His list overlaps with mine in overall intent and direction, aiming to make progress toward better health care, aid to parents and children, and limiting the power of oligarchies and monopolies. It is also a wish list that might as well be directed at Santa Claus, for all of its political impracticality. What distinguishes even very smart/moderate leftists like Reich from their centrist allies (like me) is not the desired direction, but awareness of one pure fact, that most of our progress across the last 250 years – even under FDR – was incremental. Moreover, not one of Reich’s proposals satisfies the “60%+ Rule” that was so effective for Gingrich, politically, and Pelosi-Schumer-Sanders in 2021-22. https://robertreich.substack.com/p/what-democrats-must-pledge-to-america?

    ReplyDelete
  27. Hi Dr Brin
    Which parts would you bet on?

    That was very true until the 70's - then the USA fell behind Europe
    That is completely true for the working man

    There are about 190 countries in the world - the USA is about 40th - the other 150 countries are below the USA and some of their citizens would love to go to the USA
    Again true
    Today a substancial number of people from South America would love to go to the USA
    True
    Most of Asia is moving to the point where they won't want to go to America
    Korea, Japan are there, China is about there - India may take a while!

    If you guys STOPPED destabilising the South American countries then there would be less people wanting to flee those places
    True
    The other main source of refugees are the conflicts in the Middle East - and Putin
    True

    "If ALL barriers went down, the flood would be unsupportable"
    That is a short/medium term problem
    As the other countries catch up the pressure will drop
    I would bet on this but I don't expect to live long enough to actually see it!

    ReplyDelete
  28. This one is for Treebeard & locumranch and matthew... what you all share!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhS7gxe27EM&list=RDEhS7gxe27EM&start_radio=1

    ReplyDelete
  29. Dig it. We want to do good, liberal things. In order to do them we need political POWER. And that will entail finding a solution to the refugee TACTIC A tactic that so far has always, always... always worked

    1.) Data shows that copying the far right will not help the democracy-aligned parties, but the far right. People vote for the original, not the copy.
    As always, you need to get control of the narrative, not react to it. It is difficult, but not impossible.
    The tactics to partly agree to and give in to the demands of the far right is fundamentally wrong.
    2) To regain the power needed to do good, liberal things, you must break up the far right coalition without loosing your own base.
    If you do nothing about wealth inequality, you make scapegoating tactics easier.
    3) The banlieues are as much about central planning and failed imperial glories than they are about mass migration.And, personally, I would be much more frightful walking in "nationally liberated zones" of ours than in a banlieue.
    4. As the saying goes, people who want something find solutions, and people who reject something find reasons.

    My solutions would be:
    1) Reducing push, not pull factors;
    2) Installing an international Migration Distribution Agency that assigns a set number of migrants to each member nation based on GDP and population;
    3) creating buffer cities in the periphery of the MDA member nations,
    4) create faster paths to citizenship by military or civilian service, as well as language training (which could start in the buffer cities.)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A good example of the policy Dr. Brin is proposing failing is Friedrich Merz' promise to "Cut the AfD in half" by becoming the "AfD with Substance" and declaring that "Left is done".
      The AfD now leads in polling around 25%, and will probably gain absolute majorities in state elections next autumn.
      Meanwhile, the government continually needs the help of the Greens and The Left (both in opposition) to get things through parliament, being it Merz' own election or Constitutional Court judges.
      I don't think that this government will survive the full four years.

      Another good example for veering right and loosing their base are the libertarian FDP (who deserted to the AfD), as well as the Greens (with loosing voters to The Left).

      Delete
    2. To regain the power needed to do good, liberal things, you must break up the far right coalition without loosing your own base.
      If you do nothing about wealth inequality, you make scapegoating tactics easier.


      A point that gets buried among all the rest. At least since the Reagan/Thatcher era, Democrats have accepted right-wing narratives and tried to peel off voters by asserting that we can accomplish the same goals without being as cruel and racist about it.

      That maybe appeals to a few "compassionate conservatives", but essentially disenfranchises the larger swath of people who actually suffer under Republican policies. And when their situation seems hopeless enough, they are ripe to fall for a Trump-like populist who verbally speaks to their concerns, even if he offers no real solutions nor would he implement them if he had them. And when those voters are angry enough, then they vote for the cruelty to others, because that's all the meager satisfaction they have left. And thus results in the 2024 election.

      Back in the first campaign, when DJT said "I love the poorly educated!", I gave that the benefit of the doubt that he meant he loves even disaffected groups that other candidates ignore, not that he specifically loved that group. I was wrong. Those who are less informed and less prone to critical thinking and who believe everything he says, even the things that contradict the other things are his base.

      Voters who are at least somewhat comfortable in their lives and optimistic about their future tend to vote for liberal value. Voters for whom live seems brutal, short, and pointless tend to vote for right-wingers. This is irrespective of which politicians are causing their situation. Democrats have consistently read the room incorrectly in this regard. They campaign on "Republicans are hurting you, so vote for Democrats instead." The voters are saying "I'm hurting. So I'm voting for Republicans."

      Democrats need to improve people's lives so that they will be inclined to vote Democratic. Republicans benefit from the opposite dynamic. They make people's lives worse, which in turn primes those people to vote Republican. And guess which one is easier to accomplish?

      Delete
  30. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wAaxPcX8TgQ

    Presented without (much) further comment, as fans of Bill Maher and of Larry David probably both think they "win" this argument.

    I will say that Maher's assertion that Trump is the most supportive president Jews have ever had [4:22] is bull semen, and not even particularly good bull semen.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Der Oger demonstrates the calamity of the left. Not their policies. I agree with many of them, though history shows that they happen INCREMENTALLY, each building from the previous one.

    No, his scveed about doubling-down, effectively crying "We must do exactly the same thing that made us lose last time!" is a disaster for civilization.

    He imputes an absolute lie, that I ask that we become the AfDF-light or copy their agends. He knows better and I fight against the madness harder and more effectively every single day than he does in a month.

    No, the fundamental in his response was to utterly utterly ignore the point, again and again. The oligarchs found a TACTIC THAT WORKS! The AfD is a threat RIGHT NOW because many voters turned to them BECAUSE THE TACTIC WORKS. Trump is president because the tactic works. And thus we cannot do any of 10,000 things that would improve the world...

    ...because we don't have power.

    Will someone else try to explain it to him? I am way too tired.. But I will say this. The next time you call me a semi-nazi, you are out of here.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The next time you call me a semi-nazi, you are out of here.

      Der Oger supplies a much needed view from the European continent, and he's one of us. I don't understand why you're ready to pull the trigger on him when you pride yourself on tolerating locumranch and matthew.

      Delete
  32. Oh, as for the 'base." I am sick of being lectured over that. The 'base' screeched and howled at Pelosi and Schumer and still do, despite the fact that P&S - supported by PRTAGMATIC leftists like Bernie, Liz, AOC, Pete - got more accomplished in the 2021-22 bills that ALL previous left-pushed efforts for 20 years. And still, when you ask some smarmy kid who yells at "DNC moderates!" who the last three DNC chairs were, they stare at you blankly and murmur "I may not vote, what's thedifference?"

    The real BASE of the Democratic party is 90% moderate reformers. And the silly-ass nonpragmatists on the left (who would not know Marx if he bit them) were the ones - pushing PRONOUNS at SPANISH SPEAKERS! - who drove a million Blacks and Hispanics out of the coalition.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The real BASE of the Democratic party is 90% moderate reformers...

      Because the BASE of the Republican Party--the ones who vote red no matter who--are their fringiest hard-right fanatics, it also seems to be conventionally assumed that the equal and opposite is true of the Democratic Party. Whereas it ain't necessarily so.

      Delete
  33. Did I post this for you? Okay, this has gone completely in-in-in-SANE!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nm9codc_zwk

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just curious, hands up all those who still think 1984 is scarier than BNW.

      Delete
    2. @scidata,

      I would expect most people think so. BNW is scary in the sense that it used to seem more plausible a near-future and 1984 seemed way out there. But that is no longer the case. The Thought Police recently came after anyone who didn't genuflect over Charlie Kirk, and the recent ICE and CBP raids in Chicago didn't even act in secrecy the way Winston was picked up in 1984. Reality is worse than the novel.

      There are shots of Border Patrol troops in Chicago which look just like something out the second Hunger Games movie--"Welcome to District 12".

      Let's put it this way. Were I to be living a scenario that feels like 1984, I could see myself wryly wishing that if only I could live in a BNW world instead. I can't imagine the other way around.

      Delete
    3. One of the scariest aspect of both novels is the seeming permanence baked into both systems.

      That's why I'm so amused at the League of Extraordinary Gentlemen version in the Black Dossier graphic novel, which opens its action in 1958 with a young Jimmy Bond. Britain is in the process of tearing down Big Brother posters since the Ingsoc government has just fallen after only 10 years in power.

      "This too shall pass."

      Delete
    4. @Larry Hart,

      Explicit evil is bad, but beware the wolf in sheep's clothing.
      What will Netflix do with/to Casablanca?
      This is how history dies, not with a bang but an acquisition.

      Delete
    5. What will Netflix do with/to Casablanca?

      What are you hearing? I'm not familiar with the controversy.

      Delete
    6. Explicit evil is bad, but beware the wolf in sheep's clothing.

      When BNW was written in the 1930s, the extra-marital sex and and atheism was intended to appear as shockingly evil as the stuff like embryo factories and SOMA. When I read the book in the late 1970s, some of that already didn't produce the negative connotations that they were supposed to. I did not react to Lenina throwing herself at the savage with, "OMG! She just wants recreational sex without wanting to be a wife and mother. The horror!"

      Do you see that as evil in sheep's clothing? I didn't and still don't.

      I don't see that as evil in sheep's clothing.

      Delete
    7. Netflix is in the process of acquiring Warner Bros. ($72B)
      Hollywood is the memory bank of the Enlightenment.

      Delete
    8. Netflix is in the process of acquiring Warner Bros

      Yes, I did know that. But what makes you think they'll "do" anything to Casablanca other than make it possible for me to watch when I feel like it?

      Hollywood is the memory bank of the Enlightenment.

      Even long before Netflix, certain movies were made unavailable for ideological reasons. The Manchurian Candidate was unavailable from something like 1964 until it was re-released in 1987 or thereabouts. George Lucas has made it impossible for me to re-watch Star Wars the way I saw it in 1977, with the original cantina music and without Jabba the Hutt.

      If you had reason to believe that Netflix was planning to ruin movies like Casablanca, for example by using AI to change the ending, then I'd be right there with you. Short of that, I don't consider it a bad thing that the WB stable will be available on a streaming service that I already get instead of a new one that I'd have to pay for separately.

      Delete
  34. David, I disagree with you in two places:
    1) Your tactics are idiotic, utter garbage. You double down on trying to reach a "middle" that consists of citizens that like some of the evil being done in our national name, and you do so by sacrificing the most vulnerable in our society. Your incrementalism is evil.
    2) You support oligarchs that are evil fraudsters. You have admitted that you do it because you "like" what they are doing. What you really like is the money you get from being a "centrist" pundit, which means defending oligarch interests, like Space X or the other techbois in Silicon Valley.

    ReplyDelete
  35. I apologize for that moment of ferocity toward Der Oger. LH is right. Der Oger is a valued contribuotor and sane. And he is also any ally. But that is the problem. Our side is almost 1% as rigidly dogmatic as the right is. And we cannot afford that 1% rigidity.

    Obstinately refusing to recognize enemy TACTICS that work and then work and then work for them is truly unhelpful at our regaining the POWER that we need, in order to achieve great things.

    But oh, yes... do not call me a semi-nazi.

    scidata anyone reading BNW knows that the world controllers (Mustafa Monde) know that things will change again and they are listening to suggestions. And meanwhile, everyone is having a really good time. So... yeah.

    LH I hope you are right about Ingsoc falling.

    As for matthew, he is simply insane. Our lefty locumranch. His spittle is fecal, as is his mind. And I fight his enemies harder and more effectively in any hour than he has, across a useless life.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. Obstinately refusing to recognize enemy TACTICS that work and then work and then work for them is truly unhelpful ...

      Ok, but there are tactics that work for them but wouldn't work for us. It's an accepted truism that Democrats "must be for something, not just against something." But Republicans do just fine running on "Vote for us because those Demon-crats are evil."

      Delete
  36. https://www.threads.com/@stonekettle

    BREAKING: Donald Trump awarded Congressional World Table Tennis Federation's new Best Original Screenplay In Physics Award.


    I mean, why not?

    ReplyDelete
  37. "Ok, but there are tactics that work for them but wouldn't work for us."

    So? Are you even parsing what you are saying? Are you saying that *I* want to fight Putin's pushing-refugees tactic by pushing other refugees across HIS borders? I don't get your meaning.

    Do I mean that western nations need to absorb refugees at rates that DON'T trigger fascist voter swings? Yes, I am saying that. We do more good for poor people by having Democrats in power, following proper immigration law, than having Trumpists unleashing ICE. Can you parse that out?

    But further, I would declare war on the elites in countries who are oppressing their own people and turning them into refugees! And I don't care if Warren G Harding sent troops to support those elites in Guatemala or whatever. This is now. Bill those elites for every expense in caring for their refugees. Go after their cayman accounts. THAT is a "democratic answer" to Putin's successful tactic.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are you saying that *I* want to fight Putin's pushing-refugees tactic by pushing other refugees across HIS borders?

      No, I guess I'm just despairing in general that right-wing tactics are so much easier to accomplish than to counter.

      Delete
  38. Tactics and good sense
    I love your new "Contract with America" - starting with things that 60+% of Americans are in favor of

    Immigrants
    Two seperate problems
    (1) Illegal Imigrants - economic migrants
    Simple solution - LARGE fines and jail time for Employers
    I would bet that would also pass the 60+% rule
    (2) Refugees
    The problem here is not the actual refugees but the huge number that is in limbo!
    The solution is to speed up the decision making - make the decisions simpler and much FASTER
    If it takes weeks instead of years the number of people who need to be looked after and tracked drops by 98%
    By making the decision fast and implimenting it most of the problem will go away

    Incidentally THIS is a major part of why European countries are having difficulty with "immigrants"

    It's not the "Rate of absorbing refugees" it's the huge number that are in limbo so they can't be absorbed until the decisions are finally made

    IMHO it would be worth spending a LOT more on the fact finding and judicial side in order to get the decisions made quickly

    ReplyDelete
  39. Stumbled across this counter-point to the "AI is a misguided bubble" we've seen a bunch in the comments section here. The rise of AI denialism

    ReplyDelete
    Replies

    1. ...
      Eighty-two years ago, philosopher Ayn Rand wrote these three simple sentences: “Man cannot survive except through his mind. He comes on earth unarmed. His brain is his only weapon.”


      "Philosopher Ayn Rand"? I'm already a bit skeptical.

      Delete
    2. By the CEO of an AI consulting corp. No conflict of interest there.
      He was programming in 1982 on a TRS-80 Model III. So cute.

      I don't contest the wonders of GenAI. I certainly don't contest the massive potential it has to tip over the apple cart. I just object to the name 'Artificial Intelligence', when it's actually 'Automated Plagiarism'.

      Delete
  40. I apologize for that moment of ferocity toward Der Oger.
    Apology accepted.

    BTW, I didn't call you a semi Nazi. I am quite frank with doing that to two of your recurring guests, if you read my answers to Locum and Treebeard.

    Ok, but there are tactics that work for them but wouldn't work for us.

    Best example: we have no difficulty "improving" our weapons laws into ridiculity, yet anyone merely mentioning speed limit on the Autobahn can kiss his political career goodbye.
    _________
    As for change in tactics, turn refugees into assets. Build military and civilian units that can aid in defense, emergency management and disaster relief. Or managing refugee camps. Or use a select few of them as intelligence and covert ops assets.

    Build diversions. Take relatively stable countries like Ghana and Jordan, give them Article 5-like Security guarantees, debt relief and a large sum of money for infrastructure and education. In turn, you demand fighting corruption and the establishment of human rights, If necessary. Your intelligence service will have a whole division seeing after that.
    Oh, and that they take in the refugees from surrounding countries.

    ReplyDelete
  41. I kinda feel sorry for our fine host when he declares that there is such a thing as TOO MUCH diversity & immigration, especially since our political left continues to insist that Diversity & Immigration (which are also known as 'OUR STRENGTH') must remain unmitigated & unlimited goods.

    The problem here is that our Dr Brin appears to be politically MODERATE, even though he leans somewhat to the left, as the political moderate has become the most despised of all political identities in our polarized world, and this makes him the sworn enemy of uncompromising lefty extremists like matthew.

    Dr Brin's proposals are often reasonable, fair & moderate, and it is this very 'reasonableness' which condemns the bulk of his suggestions to inutility, mostly because the idea of compromise has become a moral obscenity.


    Best
    _______

    I'll start the ball rolling since I'm no stranger to moral compromise:


    In terms of racism, sexism, inclusiveness, homophobia & all of the other 'isms', how much intolerance would you say is acceptable? Does 50% sound good?

    Which racial slurs can we use on even days if we restrict our use of the 'N word' to odd days? How many rapes per day? How many abortions? And how many murders?

    Ready to compromise?

    ReplyDelete
  42. Der Oger: " fines and jail time for Employers" Well, if you read what you wrote about the AfD and my quasi supporting an AfD-lite, it would be a very easy interpretation to make.

    Duncan, yes, I think I'll write an addendum proposal about immigration that includes those points.

    Still, it is NOT just a slow legal ayatwm. Liberals have GOT to admit the Putinists found a tactic that can only be answered with "We can't be and do all things at once. Without POWER, we can't do anything at all."

    ALL good things become toxic in excess: Food, water, air, money, speech... and yes, immigration. Find a diet you can support. Then give a bit more because we should. But we need to limit the flow at the source, by helping the persecuted stay in decent countries where elites can't abuse them.

    And hence, locum fails utterly at his smarmy talk of my seeing the light. He is an ally of the monsters who persecute people and send them fleeing to our shores. In other words, I'll not 'compromise' with a borderline evil flaming hypocrite.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. " fines and jail time for Employers" Well, if you read what you wrote about the AfD and my quasi supporting an AfD-lite, it would be a very easy interpretation to make.

      Pressuring the employers to stop hiring illegals is one of those things that would address the issue if implemented, but never will be implemented because the dirty little not-so-secret is that economy depends on illegal immigrant workers. Look at what's happening now that ICE and the Border Patrol are scaring off farm workers and meat packers. Those jobs aren't being filled by unemployed Americans. They're just not getting done.

      Liberals have GOT to admit the Putinists found a tactic that can only be answered with "We can't be and do all things at once. Without POWER, we can't do anything at all."


      Well, we did that by nominating an old establishment non-threatening white guy for the presidency in 2020. I'm not arguing against your point--just saying that sometimes we do.

      But we need to limit the flow at the source, by helping the persecuted stay in decent countries where elites can't abuse them.

      We'd finally have to admit that we are the world's policeman.

      Delete
  43. I think what exacerbates the problem -or any point of political discussion - the extreme fringes have a defined position, and a strong stance - to remain in your HtH combat allegory, no natter how idiotic, reactionary or outright evil that position is.

    That gives them visibility and the (of course problematic) appearance that they are true to their ideals, and a part of their charisma stems from it.

    Otoh, politicians who cherish compromises and consense often lack this stability in stance and often appear to be wobbling around, giving in to extreme demands and not having clearly defined red lines.(Which by the way foreign autocrates also notice and exploit. It is no accident that both the Kremlin and the technofeudal cabal of billionaires targeted our Greens when they were on the verge of becoming the majority party.)

    This undefinedness, this "piloting on sight" (Merkel) without vision except to secure power for powers sake makes the fringes more appealing.

    Politicians need charisma to be elected - and while characters like BrĂ¼ning, Merkel, Stahmer and Schumer have their times, we now need Churchills and Zelenskis.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Speaking of AfD and MAGA and Brexit and LePen and right wing governments in normally liberal Scandinavia countries, this fascinating conversation between Ezra Klein and Fareed Zakaria makes it clear - its all about immigrants (legal or otherwise) having a different skin color and religion. Fear and hatred of dark skinned "Others" has completely reshaped the politics of western nations far more than any economics issue:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mrt9N4vSHeI
    Why Right-Wing Populism Is Taking Off Around the World | The Ezra Klein Show Clips

    But when you ask
    about this new politics, so let's go to
    a place like Sweden. Sweden does not
    have a huge income inequality problem.
    They've actually done a very good job.
    They have very high taxes. They have
    lots of redistribution. Sweden has a
    major upsurge of right-wing populism
    that is fundamentally driven by culture
    and immigration.

    You say maybe it's that
    we should have protected our
    manufacturing sector better. Germany
    protected its manufacturing sector. The
    second largest party in Germany now is a
    right-wing populist party motivated
    largely by cultural issues.

    Maybe we
    should have um coddled people with a
    bigger safety net. Nobody coddles people
    with a bigger safety net than France.
    France's percentage the government the
    state percentage of you know uh GDP is I
    I forget it's like 58% highest in
    the in the in the western world and you
    know right now Marine LePen if the
    election were held tomorrow she'd be the
    next president of France.

    So my point is
    the the income you know these income
    inequalities and dysfunctions obviously
    cause enormous anxiety, anger whatever
    but the the age we are living in.

    I would argue these things get channeled
    through cultural um discontents and you
    see that with immigration being the
    issue that that got Trump elected and
    then reelected and Trump is very smart
    politically. He knows what works. And
    that tells you that there's something
    going on here that we're not capturing.

    So, it's all about race and religion folks, nothing else really matters.

    And we liberals are going to have to do some rethinking and stop assuming that people are perfectible and can become racially and religiously tolerant. There are limits to how good (aka liberal) most people can be.

    And its going to get worse as birth rates across all developed nations continue to collapse and native populations become older and shrink. Assuming that AI does not create a quantum leap in productivity need to keep the system running (both the social safety net and capitalism itself) then these workers and consumers will have to come from somewhere else.

    And they won't be White.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. So, it's all about race and religion folks, nothing else really matters.

      And religion as a tribal marker. Not about the actual religious practices.

      Right-wingers actually tend to like Muslim attitudes toward women. They just don't like Muslims to be the ones doing them.

      Delete
    2. As for the AfD: Race yes, Islamophobia yes, but aside from a few basket cases like von Storch quite nonreligious.
      The western part of that party are old Neonazis + the national conservative Part of the CDU + workers lost by the social democrats.
      The eastern part is mostly about grievances regarding the reunion, which were not totally unwarranted, but also the result of work migration - young people and especially women have left for the West to Look for better opportunities. But xenophobia slways was a problem, since the old socialst regime simply declared that the Problem would not exist, and contract with foreigners was very Limited (Cuban and Vietnamese contract workers were kept in closed communities). It had it's first peak in the early nineties to the 2000s, a decade named the "baseball bat years".

      Delete
  45. My prev response to Dr Oger was uncoordinated. My 1st sentence responded to whether he had hinted I was Quasi Nazi. Which sure seemed that way to me.

    ReplyDelete
  46. "Pressuring the employers to stop hiring illegals is one of those things that would address the issue if implemented, but never will be implemented because the dirty little not-so-secret "

    Until Trump, the ACTUAL secret was that Dems were better at Border Control precisely because they preferred LEGAL immigration that can lead to voters and union members and Repubs ALWAYS weakened the border patrol to get illegals who can be intimidated and never vote. I invite anyone to step up and wager over that. Though Trump changed everything.

    Indeed, I always thought dems had flaws in the ways they opened up legal immigration.

    While USA has done better at making immigration less about race... a cop who hears a kid chat with him about Star Wars is unlikely to look for some infraction... the minority of Americans who DO care about skin color are on the move.

    ReplyDelete
  47. I'll not 'compromise' with a borderline evil flaming hypocrite.

    Now that our fine host admits that compromise is off the table, there's no longer any justification to talk at all, let alone be reasonable, summing up the nature of our current impasse.

    This is also the dirty secret about Incrementalism:

    It's never enough because minor & reasonable concessions necessarily lead to additional concessions which lead eventually to total surrender, and this is why it is no longer reasonable to 'be reasonable' at all.

    We will no longer negotiate with rhetorical terrorists.


    Best

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Who needs to talk?

      Between already skewing old, diseases of despair, poor health habits, lack of education, and refusal to get vaccinated your kind is dying out.

      Time is on our side.

      Delete
    2. "Rhetorical" terrorists? Are you scared of words?

      Delete
  48. RIP 1941 defenders of Pearl Harbor and Hong Kong.

    ReplyDelete
  49. Indeed, Pearl Harbor day is fraught with lessons.

    Locum asked me to meet him halfway to enact ONLY 50% of his side's pure evil betrayal of every single thing that America is about. Sure as shit I refuse!

    I'll negotiate and compromise over HOW to advance the Enlightenment and Barry Goldwater was an example who wanted to goose the insurance industry to take on more of the protective functions of the FDA, FTC, OSHA etc... and it mighta been worth trying... if the poor got help to GET such policies. It was his fellow republicans who let him down.

    My putting forward for all to see Gingrich's Contract With America is EXACTLY what one does in order to negotiate and compromise. "You asked for all these things in 1994 and I am willing to give you these ten of them, despite YOUR failure to enact them when (as now) you had power!

    Hence I have a VERY good track record offering to negotiate and compromise. But Locum isn't offering that. He wants me to cut my opposition to pure evil in half... in exchange for what? Nothing is on the table that would tempt me to do that.

    BTW Arizona draws 17.5% of it's power from the spinning in Goldwater's grave right now. Over Trumpism, for sure. But above all over the callow cowardice of 'decent Republicans' who shoulda split off a Decent Conservatives Party ages ago, The way Barry G would have and (of all people) Liz Cheney did recently.

    BTW the number of GOP Congress reps withdrawing from the 26 GOP primaries is very, very interesting, in that context.

    ReplyDelete
  50. @Larry Hart

    "Look at what's happening now that ICE and the Border Patrol are scaring off farm workers and meat packers. Those jobs aren't being filled by unemployed Americans. They're just not getting done."

    That's not true:

    "June 15, 2025, 6:00 AM EDT / Updated June 15, 2025, 10:11 AM EDT
    By Nicole Acevedo
    OMAHA, Neb. — Every seat in the waiting area of Glenn Valley Foods was occupied with people filling out job applications early Thursday afternoon, two days after the meatpacking plant became the center of the largest worksite immigration raid in the state of Nebraska so far this year.

    Dozens of prospective employees, many of them Spanish speakers, had been coming in and out of the plant all day. Some were hoping to land a new job; others were coming in for training.

    The scene gave the company’s president, Chad Hartmann, a glimmer of hope amid the chaos that ensued after Tuesday's raid purged roughly half of his staff — many of whom had been longtime employees of the company, which has been processing boxed beef for more than 15 years. [ https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna212931 ]"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You left this part out:

      Hartmann had never seen or experienced a raid before. He is finding out in real time that “there’s no playbook” on how to move forward after one, Hartmann told NBC News.

      The process of re-hiring new workers, Hartmann said, feels like asking someone to replace a family member. “You cannot, in my mind,” he said. “They were part of our family, and they were taken away.”


      Not to mention:

      The county’s sheriff, Jerome Kramer, said none of the detainees are “violent offenders” and he hopes to help them “complete the process to correct their work status and reunite them with families or employers.”


      So I won't.

      Delete
  51. Our AI-transition has many tell-tales, changing daily. On YouTube my feed now has about 20% interesting photo-essays re WWII that: 1. Clearly recite an existing book chapter, 2. with a narration-voice that has excellent tonalities and no longer pauses at wrong places, and 3. features a series of B&W stills that look convincingly like real photos from the era, apropos to the passage being narrated....

    ... except that NONE of the supposed 'photos' is real! None. Every single one has a blatant give-away, like implausible ships whose cranes would have toppled them in seconds, or arrays of trucks loading from 'liberty ships' all in completely implausible, tightly-packed order. Or a German staff meeting with 15 admirals, all of them four-stripers (more than the whole Kreigsmarine at the time) and all with similar ages and grim expressions.

    I could go on. But what is the real lesson? That AI illustrations are now not only photo-realistic in appearance, based on 3 sentence fragments of an ongoing narration, but also so cheap they can be generated by minor YouTube channels as special interest clickbait. And yet, for all the phot-realism and pertinence to the narration, they almost always lack any sign of checking against real world plausibility... which of course no LLM is truly equipped to do, anyway.

    This was impossible 6 months ago. And six months from now the model systems will have been trained to better-fake their unaware plausibility. But likely they'll remain real-world absurd. And hence dangerous!

    This one illustrates my points but similar fakes are all over the place, right now. And maybe some most-advanced AI is reading what I just typed, reconfiguring as we speak.

    Harari calls for a truth in AI law commanding some kind of symbol in the corner. I am moving toward agreeing.

    I guess it's one more observation to add to my draft book on AI! (It'll be a biggie!)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unH2mVnigSQ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But likely they'll remain real-world absurd. And hence dangerous!
      Sokath, his eyes uncovered!

      Finally someone here is speaking my language. It almost makes me want to delve into the Efficient Compute Frontier (ECF or sometimes CEF) which is sort of an inverse 'ultraviolet catastrophe'. But that leads down the rabbit hole back to GOFAI, WJCC, and (gulp) Forth, and I don't want to over-pollute OGH's fine blog.

      Delete
  52. @Larry Hart

    The point is that there WERE plenty of applicants. Of course there's going to be disruption, but there ARE Americans willing to take those jobs. There is no need for massive numbers of illegals to be here.

    That's why Trump's border policy remains popular. People can see that it simply isn't true that there are "Jobs that Americans won't do".

    ReplyDelete
  53. scidata and alfred (who else?) do you wish to peruse - with your expertise - my 90% finished draft book on AI?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'd be honoured (but slow reader*). I'm still at the same email you last used for me in 2021, not sure if you are too. Let's use email, more secure and less clutter on CB.

      * but also laconic when writing, which is a plus :)

      Delete