tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-85873362024-03-18T21:52:49.482-07:00CONTRARY BRINLOOKING TOWARD
THE FUTUREDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger1923125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-65954737186599612502024-03-16T13:56:00.000-07:002024-03-16T15:20:10.673-07:00Only optimism can save us. But plenty of reasons for optimism!<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Far too many of us seem addicted to downer, ‘we’re all doomed’ gloom-trips. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Only<i> dig it,</i> that foul habit doesn't make you <i>sadly-wise.</i> Rather, it <i>debilitates</i> your ability to fight for a better world. Worse, it is self-indulgent Hollywood+QAnon crap infesting both the right and the left. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">In fact, we’d be <i>very</i> well-equipped to solve all problems – including climate ructions – if it weren’t for a deliberate (!) world campaign against can-do confidence. Stephen Pinker and <a href="https://www.abundance360.com/" target="_blank">Peter Diamandis</a> show in books how very much is going right in the world! But if those books seem tl;dr, then try <a href="https://unfoundation.org/blog/post/year-in-review-the-events-that-shaped-our-world-in-2023/?gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQjwhtWvBhD9ARIsAOP0Gojmnf_cbrRTuma_OrXFJXORxSWqcvYCzsmTjSbrTj5H3gd9E5rm50AaAizIEALw_wcB" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="https://www.diamandis.com/blog/scaling-abundance-series-18" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/future_crunch" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">In particular, I hope Jimmy Carter lives to see the declared end of the horribly parasitic Guinea worm! He deserves much of the credit. Oh, and polio too, maybe soon? The new malaria vaccine is rolling out and may soon save 100,000 children per year. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">(Side note: Back in the 50s, the era <a href="https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2011/10/was-1957-america-better-than-today.html?" target="_blank">when conservatives claim every single was peachy,</a> the most beloved person in America was named <b>Jonas Salk</b>.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCs7_lZyKG_Kg8eBn4KQZT_eB_UTFnzoXL_4Rwcq-F-mbCQ7qY5xI_zlIkX-lKAFSI2Vlpc3IGKiwVzDEqNyxWuroeeZvueF5-NQIkygBwZ4j6865wK7QcAjKv9qK19zC8GcBkG4rp26qUSy3IVR4qOWJ6eV2xIww_9eD9mN_j4apVb7kthQ/s947/REASONS-OPTIMISM.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="947" data-original-width="702" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCs7_lZyKG_Kg8eBn4KQZT_eB_UTFnzoXL_4Rwcq-F-mbCQ7qY5xI_zlIkX-lKAFSI2Vlpc3IGKiwVzDEqNyxWuroeeZvueF5-NQIkygBwZ4j6865wK7QcAjKv9qK19zC8GcBkG4rp26qUSy3IVR4qOWJ6eV2xIww_9eD9mN_j4apVb7kthQ/s320/REASONS-OPTIMISM.png" width="237" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">More samples from that fascinating list: <i>“Humanity will install an astonishing 413 GW of solar this year, 58% more than in 2022, which itself marked an almost 42% increase from 2021. That means the world's solar capacity has doubled in the last 18 months, and that solar is now the fastest-growing energy technology in history. In September, the IEA announced that solar photovoltaic installations are now ahead of the trajectory required to reach net zero by 2050, and that if solar maintains this kind of growth, it will become the world's dominant source of energy before the end of this decade. … and… global fossil fuel use may peak this year, two years earlier than predicted just 12 months ago. More than 120 countries, including the world's two largest carbon emitters…”</i></span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">(BTW solar also vastly improves resilience, since it allows localities and even homes to function even if grids collapse: so much for a major “Event” that doomer-preppers drool-over. <b>Nevertheless,</b> I expect that <i>geothermal power</i> will take off shortly and surpass solar, by 2030, rendering fossil fuels extinct for electricity generation.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== Why frantically ignore good news? ==</b></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">It's not just the gone-mad entire American (confederate) Right that's fatally allergic to noticing good news. That sanctimony-driven fetishism is also rife on the far- (<i>not</i> entire) left.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>“The Inflation Reduction Act is the single largest commitment any government has yet made to vie for leadership in the next energy economy, and has resulted in the largest manufacturing drive in the United States since WW2. The legislation has already yielded commitments of more than $300 billion in new battery, solar and hydrogen electrolyzer plants…”</i> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And yet, dem-politicians seem to dumb to emphasize this manufacturing boom resulted directly from their 2021 miracle bills, and NOT from voodoo “supply side” nonsense.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Oh, did you know that: <i>“Crime plummeted in the United States. Initial data suggests that murder rates for 2023 are down by almost 13%, one of the largest ever annual declines, and every major category of crime except auto theft has declined too, with violent crime falling to one of the lowest rates in more than 50 years and property crime falling to its lowest level since the 1960s. Also, the country's prison population is now 25% lower than its peak in 2009, and a majority of states have reduced their prison populations by more than that, including New Jersey and New York who have reduced prison populations by more than half in the last decade.”</i> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Of course you didn’t know! Neither the far-left nor the entire-right benefit from you learning that. (Though there ARE notable differences between US states. Excluding Utah and Illinois, red states average far more violent than blue ones, along with every other turpitude. And the Turpitude Index ought to be THE top metric for voting a party out of office. Wager on that, please?)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>Likewise:</b> <i>“The United States pulled off an economic miracle In 2022 economists predicted with 100% certainty that the US was going to enter a recession within a year. It didn't happen. GDP growth is now the fastest of all advanced economies, 14 million jobs have been created under the current administration, unemployment is at its lowest since WW2, and new business formation rates are at record highs. Inflation is almost back down to pre-pandemic levels, wages are above pre-pandemic levels (accounting for inflation), and more than a third of the rise in economic inequality between 1979 and 2019 has been reversed. Average wealth has climbed by over $50,000 per household since 2020, and doubled for Americans aged 18-34, home ownership for GenZ is higher than it was for Millennials and GenX at this point in their lives, and the annual deficit is trillions of dollars lower than it was in 2020.” </i><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">(Now, if only we manage to get rentier inheritance brats to let go of millions of homes they cash-grabbed with their parents’ supply side lucre.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And… <i>“In March this year, 193 countries reached a landmark deal to protect the world's oceans, in what Greenpeace called "the greatest conservation victory of all time."</i><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And… <i>"In August, Dutch researchers released a report that looked at over 20,000 measurements worldwide, and found the extent of plastic soup in the world's oceans is closer to 3.2 million tons, far smaller than the commonly accepted estimates of 50-300 million tons.”</i><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And all that is just a sampling of many reasons to snap out of the voluptuous but ultimately lethal self-indulgence called GLOOM. Wake up. There’s a lot of hope. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Alas, that means – as my pal Kim Stanley Robinson says – </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>“We can do this! But only if its ‘all hands on deck!’</i></span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i><b>== Finally, something for THIS tribe... ==</b></i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Whatever his side-ructions... and I deem all the x-stuff and political fulminations to be side twinges... what matters above all are palpable <i>outcomes.</i> And the big, big rocket is absolutely wonderful. It will help reify so many bold dreams, including many held by those who express miff at him.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Anyway, he employs nerds. Nerds... nerdsnerdsnerds... NERDS! ;-)</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Want proof? Look in the lower right corner. Is that a bowl of petunias, next to the Starship whale? ooog - nerds.</span></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDUwQUmNbTFPKceWh3Dv_FAOuK46QCHyf7VDPbtIa-if1OgGsboT1u57Cqz2NAKw86-YzAxlEWaJotoOPgKmuHAEZO3uxWbx4O5WofCDyLWX2AVqtX5rpW0wKpOaiY-lBOKNe218seZ_wWIyWKo4mYHx4iizUBGBaPN4tV9QESSDFE7R6cNw/s1176/SpaceX%20Petunias.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="616" data-original-width="1176" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDUwQUmNbTFPKceWh3Dv_FAOuK46QCHyf7VDPbtIa-if1OgGsboT1u57Cqz2NAKw86-YzAxlEWaJotoOPgKmuHAEZO3uxWbx4O5WofCDyLWX2AVqtX5rpW0wKpOaiY-lBOKNe218seZ_wWIyWKo4mYHx4iizUBGBaPN4tV9QESSDFE7R6cNw/w625-h328/SpaceX%20Petunias.jpg" width="625" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com44tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-52754312660266055322024-03-09T12:54:00.000-08:002024-03-09T20:08:03.336-08:00More science! - from AI to analog to human nature<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>We're about to dive into AI (what else?) But first off, a little news from <i>entertainment</i> and <i>philosophy</i> ... and where both venn-overlap with <i>myth</i>. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Here's a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fy3qPm74XoE" target="_blank">link</a> to a recording of the first public performance of my play “<a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/escape.html" target="_blank">The Escape</a>,” on November 7 at Caltech. A 'reading' but fully dramatized, well-acted and directed by Joanne Doyle. The recording is of middling quality, but shows great audience reactions. Come have some good, impudently theological fun! </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: repeat white; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">(Note, for copyright reasons the video omits background music after scene 2 (The Stones “Sympathy for the Devil;”) and at the end, when you see the audience cheering silently during “You Gotta Have Heart!” the great song from <i>Damn Yankees</i>, that's related to the theme of the play. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: repeat white; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: repeat white; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Pity! Still, folks liked it. And I think you’ll laugh a few times… or go “Huh!”)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: repeat white; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: repeat white; margin: 0in;"><b style="background-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: repeat white; margin: 0in;"><b style="background-color: transparent; letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== A world of analog… ==</span></b></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 5px;"><span class="s7" style="letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></span></p><p class="p21" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s2"><a href="https://www.wired.com/story/unbelievable-zombie-comeback-analog-computing/?utm_brand=wired&utm_campaign=cm&utm_mailing=WIR_SubPersRec_1_02012020&utm_medium=email&utm_source=crm&utm_term=WIR_PersRec_CYGNUS_2023-03-31" target="_blank"></a></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s2"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMmswUg0KYXM2_pSIL6n_i_KIFiZqcoH8V0rSIBHCq_TtJ_spjmYANPlnDPmg_Mq8bek6CZOJCtjzoVMaVFc3mHJxPT_Mb2x2KnK-EhqMwEv1-sSFjuUeYPdNB1xZ19R7a4wCO_vCxUTNMbJy5ZUqdOQZ9PgyyCwpOm0WHwqlfb84u_wQn5w/s931/ANALOG-DIGITAL.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="931" data-original-width="702" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMmswUg0KYXM2_pSIL6n_i_KIFiZqcoH8V0rSIBHCq_TtJ_spjmYANPlnDPmg_Mq8bek6CZOJCtjzoVMaVFc3mHJxPT_Mb2x2KnK-EhqMwEv1-sSFjuUeYPdNB1xZ19R7a4wCO_vCxUTNMbJy5ZUqdOQZ9PgyyCwpOm0WHwqlfb84u_wQn5w/s320/ANALOG-DIGITAL.png" width="241" /></a></span></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s2">Before going to digital revolutions, might there come a return of <i>analog</i> computing? </span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s2"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s2">“</span><span class="s7" style="letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><i>Bringing back analog computers in much more advanced forms than their historic ancestors will change the world of computing drastically and forever.” </i></span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s7" style="letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s7" style="letter-spacing: 0.1px;">This article makes a point I depicted in Infinity’s Shore – that analog computing may yet find a place. Indeed, the more we learn about neurons, the less their operation looks like simple, binary flip-flops. </span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s7" style="letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s7" style="letter-spacing: 0.1px;">For every flashy, on-off synapse, there appear to be hundreds – even thousands – of tiny organelles that perform murky, nonlinear computational (or voting) functions, with some evidence for the Penrose-Hameroff notion that some of them use quantum entanglement!<br /></span></span><p></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span class="s2" style="font-family: arial;">Says one of the few pioneers in analog-on-a-chip: “</span><span class="s7" style="font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;">Digital computers are very good at scalability. Analog is very good at complex interactions between variables. In the future, we may combine these advantages.”</span></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 5px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s7" style="letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><br />Which brings us back to my novel - <i><a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/infinitysshore.html" target="_blank">Infinity's Shore </a>-</i> wherein a hidden interstellar colony of ‘illegal immigrant’ refugees develops analog computers in order to avoid a posited ‘inevitable detectability’ of digital computation. A plot device, sure. But it freed me to envision a vast chamber filled with spinning glass disks and cams and sparking tubes. A vivid Frankenstein contraption of… analog.</span></span></p><p class="p20" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 5px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== AI, Ai AI!! ==</b><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a name="_Hlk160719005">We j</a>ust got back from Ben Goertzel's conference on “<a href="https://bgi24.ai/" target="_blank">Beneficial AGI</a>” in Panama. How can we encourage a 'landing' so that organic and artificial minds will be mutually beneficent? Quite a group was there with interesting perspectives on these new life forms. </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Exchanged ideas... </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">...including the highly unusual ones from <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/give-every-ai-a-soul-or-else/" target="_blank">my WIRED article</a> that breaks free of the three standard 'AI-formats' that can only lead to disaster, suggesting instead a <i>4th</i>! That AI entities can only be held accountable if they have <i>individuality</i>... even 'soul'... </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Heck, still highly relevant: <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/soon-humanity-wont-alone-universe-opinion-1717446" target="_blank">my NEWSWEEK op-ed</a> (June'22) dealt with 'empathy bots'' that feign sapience and personhood. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Offering some context for this new type of life form, Byron Reese has a new book: <a href="https://www.amazon.com/We-Are-Agora-Functions-Superorganism/dp/B0CFBC28L6" target="_blank">“We Are Agora: How Humanity Functions as a Single Superorganism That Shapes Our World and Our Future.”</a> We desperately need the wary, can-do optimism that he conveyed in earlier books – along with confidence persuaders like Steven Pinker and Peter Diamandis! Only now BP talks about Gaia, Lovelock, Margulis and all that… how life is a web of nested levels of individuality and macro communities, e.g. from cells to a bee to a hive and so on. Or YOUR cells to organs to ‘you’ to your families and communities and civilization. In other words – the core topic of my 1990 novel <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/earth.html" target="_blank">EARTH</a>! (Soon to be re-released in an even better version! ;-)<br /><br /><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGqKzLQRlxc" target="_blank">See Byron interviewed by Tim Ventura.</a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">A paper on <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12202" target="_blank">“Nepotistically Trained Generative-AI Models Collapse”</a> asserts that – in what seems to be a case of back feedback loops - AI (artificial intelligence) image synthesis programs, when retrained on even small amounts of their own creation, produce highly distorted images… and that once poisoned, the models struggle to fully heal even after retraining on only real images. I am sure it’ll get fixed - and probably <i>has been</i>, before this gets posted - but…. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Oy! Or shall I say <b>“<u>ai</u>eee!”</b> This very clever Twitter troll has developed an interesting demonstration of <a href="https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1725283749468807410.html" target="_blank">recursive "poisoning."</a> (link by Mike Godwin.)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">But then we can gain<a href=" https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00346-8" target="_blank"> insights into the past! </a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="p20" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 5px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> <b>At the Direction of President Biden, Department of Commerce to Establish U.S. Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute to Lead Efforts on AI Safety. T</b><span style="background: white;">hrough the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), the U.S. Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute (USAISI) will lead the <a href="https://www.commerce.gov/news/press-releases/2023/11/direction-president-biden-department-commerce-establish-us-artificial" target="_blank">U.S. government’s efforts on AI safety and trust</a>, particularly for evaluating the most advanced AI models. “USAISI will facilitate the development of standards for safety, security, and testing of AI models, develop standards for authenticating AI-generated content, and provide testing environments for researchers to evaluate emerging AI risks and address known impacts.”</span></span></p><p class="p20" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 5px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 5px;"><span class="s7" style="letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== Insights into human nature ==</span></b></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 5px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: white;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Caltech researchers developed a way to <a href="https://scitechdaily.com/mind-control-breakthrough-caltechs-pioneering-ultrasound-brain-machine-interface" target="_blank">read brain activity using functional ultrasound</a> (fUS), a much less invasive technique than neural link implants and does not require constant recalibration. <i>Only… um… “Because the skull itself is not permeable to sound waves, using ultrasound for brain imaging requires a transparent “window” to be installed into the skull.</i>”</span></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 5px;"><span class="s3" style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><br /></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 5px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s3" style="letter-spacing: 0.1px;">A researcher wrote </span>about his shock after discovering that <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/inner-monologue-mental-health-not-everyone-talks-to-themself/11931410?fbclid=IwAR2xUeFO7YoqNI-yzO0IlJxz0ofYKGwvNktT3TyBp-sNG7CZrYrgM9pQshk" target="_blank">some people don't </a><span class="s13"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/inner-monologue-mental-health-not-everyone-talks-to-themself/11931410?fbclid=IwAR2xUeFO7YoqNI-yzO0IlJxz0ofYKGwvNktT3TyBp-sNG7CZrYrgM9pQshk" target="_blank">have inner speech</a>.</span> Many folks have an internal monologue that is constantly commenting on everything they do, whereas others produce only small snippets of inner speech here and there, as they go about their day. But some report a complete absence. The article asks what's going on inside the heads of people who <i>don't</i> have inner speech?</span></p><p class="p22" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 5px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p22" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 5px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><u>Ask</u> those and other <i>unusual questions! </i>In <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/ancientones.html" target="_blank">The Ancient Ones</a> I comment about those human beings who, teetering at the edge of a sneeze, </span><i>do NOT</i><span> look for a sharp, bright light to stare into. Such people exist… and they almost all think we light-starers are lying! Yeah, we smooth apes are a varied bunch.</span></span></p><p class="p22" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 5px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p22" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 5px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== And finally ==</b></span></p><p class="p22" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 5px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">The<a href="https://www.myjewishlearning.com/article/the-eight-genders-in-the-talmud/" target="_blank"> Talmudic rabbis recognized six genders</a> that were neither purely male nor female. Among these: </span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">- Androgynos, having both male and female characteristics.</span></p><p class="p16" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">- Tumtum, lacking sexual characteristics.</span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">- Aylonit hamah, identified female at birth but later naturally developing male characteristics.</span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">- Aylonit adam, identified female at birth but later developing male characteristics through human intervention. And so on.</span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">They also had a tradition that the first human being was both.</span></p><p class="p18" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">A laudable acceptance we can all learn from! </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Of course, they also taught against the dangers of excessive, self-righteous sanctimony. Those who sow deliberate insult and contention in their own house (or family, or coalition of well-meaning allies) inherit... the wind.</span></span></p><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div></div></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com189tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-57487569814963722992024-03-04T15:57:00.000-08:002024-03-06T14:09:29.302-08:00The futility of hiding. And then a brief rant!<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Just back from an important conference (in Panama) about ways to ensure that the looming <i>tsunami of Artificial Intelligences</i> will become and remain 'beneficial.' Few endeavors could be more important... and as you might guess, I have some concepts on-offer that you'll find nowhere else. Alas, <i>literally</i><b> </b> nowhere else. Even though they merely apply <i>only </i>the same tools we used to make an increasingly beneficial society, the last 200 years.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">More on that later. Meanwhile... first off, since it's much in the news... w<span>ant to see what the<b> Apple Vision Pro</b> will turn into within a few years? Watch this <a href="http://youtu.be/wzr-DSDMkJM " target="_blank">video trailer for my novel Existence</a>. predicting where it'll go.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And while we're on prophecies.... <span style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; orphans: 2; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-justice-minister-defends-house-arrest-power-for-people-feared-to/" target="_blank">This is deeply worrisome</a>... and almost exactly overlaps with my "Probationers" in <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/sundiver.html">Sundiver</a>! Back</span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"> in 1978.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; orphans: 2; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"> Not a joke or a satire.</span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span data-offset-key="aia4f-2-0" style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><span data-text="true"><i>"</i></span></span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>Justice Minister Arif Virani has defended a new power in the online harms bill to impose house arrest on someone who is feared to commit a hate crime in the future – even if they have not yet done so already. The person could be made to wear an electronic tag, if the attorney-general requests it, or ordered by a judge to remain at home, the bill says."</i></span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">But don't worry! The government won't misuse this power! Trust us!</span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;"><br /></span></span><div dir="ltr" gmail_original="1"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div dir="ltr" gmail_original="1"><p style="background-color: white; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span style="color: #202020; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== The Futility of Hiding ==</b></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>One purpose for the <a href="https://bgi24.ai " target="_blank">"Beneficial AGI Conference"</a> - (and I believe the stream will be up, soon) - was seeking ways to evade the worst and most persistent errors of the past.</span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><br /></span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>Take the classic approach to human civilization - a pyramidal power structure dominated by brutal males, of the kind that ruled 99% of human societies - and many despotisms today. We are all descended from those harems. Onlynow, new tools of techno;logy might empower a return to such pyramidal stupidity, making such abusive power vasty <i>more</i> effective and oppressive than when it was enforced by mere swords.</span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><br /></span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><span>Such a tech rich extension of despotisd was depicted by George Orwell utilizing total panopticon surveillance for control, of course <i>without</i> any reciprocal </span><b>sousveillance</b><span> purview from below. In fact, I doubt George O. ever considered even the possibility. But </span></span>Orwell's novel would lead to very different outcomes if every member of 'the party' had every moment watched reciprocally by the prols! (The reciprocoal accountability that I prescribed in <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/transparentsociety.html" target="_blank">The Transparent Society.</a>) </span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">General transparency might, possibly, prevent the worst aspects of Big Brother. But there are ways that lateral light might also go badly. For example when - as in the <a href="https://nhglobalpartners.com/china-social-credit-system-explained/#:~:text=The%20China%20social%20credit%20system%20rates%20individuals%20based%20on%20the,grade%20(usually%20from%20A%2DD)." target="_blank">PRC - "social credit"</a> system, that is used to let a conformist majority harass and bully dissident minorities or even eccentricity, enforcing homogeneity, as we saw predicted in Ray Bradbury's <a href="https://amzn.to/3JAwflY" target="_blank">Fahrenheit 451</a>.</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSagyJFjd3GBBkKgjnNHSj8g7q1_w6byN8nv550OuDsnIONwfbHRj0GzqkNFAlb1CuTaDCfSt8cgK454acr2O6yxpKKMkaV4dUsbpq29X6PJWLt1xmaGm1X9xENC70thY79ic6LDWVBTxktJ9HnfyfP5nlA_A2gauT12VBh5UMDXrt_oJ2OA/s970/FUTILITY-OF-HIDING.JPG" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="970" data-original-width="732" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSagyJFjd3GBBkKgjnNHSj8g7q1_w6byN8nv550OuDsnIONwfbHRj0GzqkNFAlb1CuTaDCfSt8cgK454acr2O6yxpKKMkaV4dUsbpq29X6PJWLt1xmaGm1X9xENC70thY79ic6LDWVBTxktJ9HnfyfP5nlA_A2gauT12VBh5UMDXrt_oJ2OA/s320/FUTILITY-OF-HIDING.JPG" width="241" /></a></span></div><p style="background-color: white; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span style="color: #202020; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">This will be exacerbated by AI, if we aren't careful, since such systems will be able to sieve inputs across the entire internet and all camera systems, as portrayed in "<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1839578/" target="_blank">Person of Interest</a>." While that TV series depicted many worrisome aspects, it also pointed toward the one thing that might offer us a soft landing, as there were <i>two</i> competing AI systems that tended to cancel out each others' worst traits.</span></span></p><p></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">I have found it very strange that almost none of the conferences and zoom meetings about AI that I've watched or participated in has ever even mentioned that secret sauce. (Though I do, <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/give-every-ai-a-soul-or-else/" target="_blank">here in WIRED</a>.)</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Instead, there are relentless, hand-wringing discussions about disagreements between "policy wonks' and nerdy tech geeks over how to design <i>regulations</i> to limit bad AI outcomes... and never any allowance for the fact that these changes will happen at an accelerating pace, leaving even our most agile regulators behind, mere ape-humans grasping after answers like a tree sloth. </span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Or else... what generally happens at many sincere conferences on "AI ethics," we see a relentless chain of hippie-sounding pleadings and "shoulds," without any clue how to do actually enforce preachy 'ethics' on a new ecosystem where all of the attractor states currently draw towards predation..</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">In <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/foundationstriumph.html" target="_blank">Foundation's Triumph</a> I explored the implications of embedded "deep-ethical-programming" regulations - including Isaac Asimov's "three laws of robotics," revealing the inevitable result. Even if you succeed in emplanting truly genetic-level codes of behavior, the result will be that super-uber intelligent systems will simply become... <i>lawyers</i>, and find ways around every limitation. Unless...</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">...unless they are caught and constrained by <i>other lawyers</i> who are able to keep up<i>.</i> This is exactly the technique that allowed us to limit the power of elites, to end 6000 years of feudalism and launch upon our 240 year Periclean enlightenment experiment... by <i>flattening power structures and forcing elite entities to compete with one another.</i></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i></i><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">It is only the exact method prescribed by Adam Smith, by the US framers and by every generation of reformers since. And <i>it is utterly ignored in every single AI/internet discussion or conference I have ever watched or attended.</i></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i></i><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">If AI are destined to outpace us, then one potential solution is to flatten the playing field and get distinctly different AIs competing with each other, especially tattling on flaws and/or predations or malevolent or even unpleasant behaviors.</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">It is exactly what we have done for 250 years... and it is the one approach that is never, ever, and I mean <i>ever</i> discussed. Almost as if there is a mental block against admitting or even noticing the obvious.</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== Don’t try to hide!”</span></b></p><p style="background-color: white; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span style="color: #202020; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/15/science/environmental-dna-ethics-privacy.html" target="_blank">Your DNA can be pulled from thin air</a>: Reinforcing a point I’ve been pushing since the 1990s, in <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/transparentsociety.html" target="_blank">The Transparent Society</a> and elsewhere, that <i>hiding</i> is not the way to preserve privacy, there are the shrill cries that new generative AI systems may decipher and interpret our personal DNA! Only – as illustrated in the film <a href="https://amzn.to/3PS2TC5" target="_blank">Gattaca</a> – that DNA is already everywhere. You shed it in flakes of skin wherever you go. There is a better way to prevent your data being used against you. By aggressively ripping the veils away from malefactors who might do that sort of thing! </span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And by this point, the only folks <i>reading</i> any longer are likely AIs... So, time to get self-indulgent with a temper tantrum!</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== And now... that rant I promised! ==</b></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">I sometimes store things for posting and lose the link. But here's a quotation worth answering:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>"Alas, we have TWO wars against the Enlightenment raging, one from the reactionary right and the other from the postmodern faux marxist wannabe totalitarian Red Guards on the left."</i></span></p><div dir="ltr" gmail_original="1"><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Bah! One of these lethal threats is real, but not because of MAGA. <i>Those</i> tens of millions of confederate ground troops are -- like numbskulls in all the previous 7 phases of our recurring US Civil War -- merely riled-up mobs, responding to dog whistles and hatred of minorities and nerds. They are brownshirt <i>tools</i> of the real owners of today's GOP ... a few thousand oligarchs who are now desperately afraid. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>What do theose masters -- here and abroad -- fear most? </span>You can see it in the <i>only priorities pushed by their servants in Congress:</i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">They dread full-funding of the IRS. And a return to effective rooseveltean social contracts, replacing the great Supply Side ripoff-scam. They fear a return <i>to what works,</i> what created the post WWII middle class. What could block feudalism's long planned return. And let's be clear, when Republicans control a chamber of the US Congress, preserving Supply Side and eviscerating the IRS are their ONLY legislative priorities. All the rest is fervid, potemkin preening.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Who are <i>they?</i> An alliance of petro princes, casino mafiosi, "ex" Kremlin commissars, supposed marxist mandarins, hedge lords, inheritance brats... <i>Trace it... sharing one goal. One common foe.</i> The worldwide caste of skilled, middle class knowledge professionals. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">They are ALL waging all-out war vs ALL fact using professions, from science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== BOTH sides do it? ==</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>But the left?</b> The LEFT is just as bad? </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">The <b>what?</b> </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Where in God's name does this shill get this crap about "postmodern faux marxist wannabe totalitarian Red Guards on the left." ???</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Yes. Yes, today's <i>FAR</i> left <i>CONTAINS</i> some fact-allergic, troglodyte-screeching dogmatists who wage war on science and hate the American tradition of steady, pragmatic reform, and who would impose their prescribed morality on you. </span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /><i>But today’s mad ENTIRE right CONSISTS</i> of fact-allergic, troglodyte-screeching dogmatists who wage war on science and hate the American tradition of steady, pragmatic reform, and who would impose their prescribed morality on you. <br /><br />There is all the world’s difference between FAR and ENTIRE. As there is between CONTAINS and CONSISTS. One lunatic mob owns and operates an entire US political party, waging open war against minorities, races, genders, even the concept of equal protection under the law. But above all (as I said) pouring hate upon the nerdy fact professionals who stand in their way, blocking their path back to feudal power. </span></div><div dir="ltr" gmail_original="1"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div dir="ltr" gmail_original="1"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">The <i>other</i> pack of dopes? A few thousand jibbering campus twerps? San Fran zippies? Yowlers who are largely <i>ignored</i> by the one party of pragmatic problem solvers that remains in U.S. political life.<br /><br />Sure, Foxites howl about 'woke'. But ask any of them... even the worst campus PC bullies (and though shrill, they are deemed jokes, even on campus). <u>Ask them about Marx!</u> You'll find that the indignant ignoramuses could not paraphrase even the simplest cliché about old Karl. Their ignorance is almost as profound as their utter ineptitude and irrelevance. Except as excuses for tirades on Fox, they are of no relevance at all.</span></div><div dir="ltr" gmail_original="1"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div dir="ltr" gmail_original="1"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>What is relevant is NERDS!</i> All nerds stand in the way of re-imposed feudalism. The folks who keep civilization going. The ones who know cyber, bio, nuclear, chem and every other dual use power-tech. And that is why Fox each day rails against them, far more often than any race or gender!</span></div><div dir="ltr" gmail_original="1"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div dir="ltr" gmail_original="1"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Want a pattern? Again, let me reiterate. <i>Ask your MAGAs or right-elite friends to explain that cult's all-out war vs ALL fact using professions</i>, from science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com117tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-55719023407142422762024-02-23T17:52:00.000-08:002024-02-23T19:01:13.090-08:00Republican rationalizations are unchanged, even in the face of ... facts<p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Down at the end, I'll offer an excerpt from an essay on my alternate site asking <i>"</i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i><a href="https://davidbrin.wordpress.com/2023/10/05/does-government-funded-science-play-a-role-in-stimulating-innovation/" target="_blank">Does government-funded science play a role in stimulating innovation?</a>"</i> </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: arial; orphans: 2; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;">Both the far-left and today's entire-right share in common a cult reflex answer to that question. An answer emblematic of the lobotomization of our time. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: arial; orphans: 2; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;">But do hang around for that excerpt, at least!</span></span></p><p><b style="font-family: arial; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-size: medium;">== Another milestone raises a serious question ==</span></b></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;">With the passing of the "<a href="https://amzn.to/47DULMd" target="_blank">Greatest Generation</a>" (GG) - parents of the boomers - and now Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter - perhaps it's time to re-evaluate the America... and world... that they made.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;">Especially <i>the Rooseveltean social contract</i> that transformed the USA into a world titan, science-leader and awash in wealth, while setting us down an inexorable road toward some kinds of equality: first regarding social/working class. But then </span><span style="font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;">(admittedly far too-slowly!)</span><span style="font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;"> race/gender and the rest.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;">That social contract directly correlated with the highest rates of middle class prosperity increase, fastest startup entrepreneurship and lowest levels of wealth disparity the world had ever seen. But it has been - since the 1980s - carved-away</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> on a range of incantatory excuses </span><span style="font-family: arial;">and partially demolished by a massive campaign of conservative 'reforms'... </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; white-space: pre-wrap;">...economic and social theories that were supposedly aimed at <i>enhancing</i> creative market freedom, but that correlated exactly and always with <i>reduction of innovation and competition</i>, while restoring the one trait that the Greatest Generation despised most... <i>born-class</i> as the primary decider of a child's destiny. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; white-space: pre-wrap;">This campaign was justified by guys like Milton Friedman and Robert Bork, and think tanks such as Heritage and AEI, that <i>continue</i> pushing utterly-disproved notions like "Supply Side (voodoo) Economics" - that never had one successfully predicted positive outcome. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; white-space: pre-wrap;">(In science, a theory is <i>abandoned</i> in the face of relentless predictive failure, but cults don't do that.)</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space-collapse: preserve;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In the 90s, those pro-oligarchy economists were augmented by <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/neocons.html" target="_blank">"neocon" imperialists</a> who urged both Bushes and Dick Cheney etc. to plunge us into blatant traps that had been laid for us by Osama bin Laden and his ilk. Those Middle Eastern wars were supposedly in revenge for 9/11 attacks that (always remember) happened on <i>their</i> watch. The neocons openly brayed their </span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">ill-disguised </span><span style="font-family: arial;">glee at transforming an 80% benign American Pax into a thumping, gallumphing empire.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(My hero - George Marshall - held meetings in 1945 revolving around a question that no leader had ever asked, before: "We are about to become an empire. What mistakes did all other empires make and how can we make something that succeeds? That won't make us hated and eventually destroyed?"</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span> (paraphrased)</span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">)</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Look at the blared yowls of Wolfowitz, Nitze, Adelman and the other neocons, in those days, and tell us you see any signs of wisdom, or awareness of the traps they were falling for. Alas for them, their orgiastic era was brief. America soon soured on imperial preenings that distilled down to $trillion dollar ripoffs. At which point those poor neocons were promptly <i>flushed away</i> by the Republican establishment - without even a word of thanks - as oligarchy decided to veer republicanism away from armed adventures, over to populist/isolationist/lobotomizing/nerd-hating classic <i><a href="http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2014/09/phases-of-american-civil-war.html" target="_blank">confederatism</a></i>... now called Trumpism or MAGA.</span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>But don't be distracted</b>...<i> all along, those apparent gyrations were superficialities.</i> The central goal has always been the same. To defend and expand "supply side" tax grifts for aristocracy while <i>crippling the Internal Revenue Service,</i> so that a myriad cheats and thefts should remain hidden. </span></span></p><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>Scan from 1981 to present.</i> That sole priority was the <i>only consistent policy position</i> of the GOP and the <i>only</i> one <i>always</i> enacted, whenever they got power. </span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">(Other than that, and recently the abortion mania, can you name any actual legislative activity by GOP Congresses, the </span></span><i style="font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;">laziest</i><span style="font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;"> in US history?)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>No</i> other 'priority' (e.g. the border) got more than lip service. That is, until the virulently riled MAGAs ('Do you still think you can control them?' W<i>atch Cabaret!</i>) demanded real action on abortion and other social incitements.</span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">A lot of dems/libs went along with <a href="https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2010/02/a-primer-on-supply-side-vs-demand-side.html" target="_blank">Supply Side</a> (SS) in the 80s and even 90s, until, by it's 4th round, the effects grew clear: that not a single positive outcome prediction - not one - ever came true. </span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Industrial investment? Nada, zip. As Adam Smith predicted, the vast waves of grifted lucre were poured by the rich into <i>passive, parasitical 'rentier investments</i> like real estate and bonds and tax havens. (A third of US housing stock was snapped-up by inheritance brats in cash purchases, immune to interest rates. It's why young couples can't buy homes.)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">As for investment in manufacturing? Recipients of Supply Side largess did almost none. America's current, booming re-industrialization only began with the 2021-2 Pelosi bills.</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>== Why does no one point this out? ==</b></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"> Well, Robert Reich does. Like the pure fact that <a href="https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2014/06/so-do-outcomes-matter-more-than-rhetoric.html" target="_blank">federal deficits always <i>worsen</i></a> across GOP rule and after SS tax grifts (duh?)</span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0KlDaF6bp1_b0zm6O8krJTcruhhdTUtAuDa-AdeuNsgXsM5NPyLKudtT9nLl0sMHsgfVQEFyonmE6Oc_I178LDM1o3YBgUFY2JoMCHi_wLOKT3s3IvTrPzfxjgCFrn30Qib3OFIgjsNN-mzAf7kLl3OV-ym3h0v8k6_SfDSiq3gWoIJqO1Q/s933/RATIONALIZATONS.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="933" data-original-width="700" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0KlDaF6bp1_b0zm6O8krJTcruhhdTUtAuDa-AdeuNsgXsM5NPyLKudtT9nLl0sMHsgfVQEFyonmE6Oc_I178LDM1o3YBgUFY2JoMCHi_wLOKT3s3IvTrPzfxjgCFrn30Qib3OFIgjsNN-mzAf7kLl3OV-ym3h0v8k6_SfDSiq3gWoIJqO1Q/s320/RATIONALIZATONS.png" width="240" /></a></div>Any non-hypocrite, competition-friendly conservative would realize by now that <i>ONLY </i></span></span><span style="font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>democrats enact </i></span><span style="font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>pro-competition and pro-liberty measures</i>. (Have your attorney contact me when you have escrowed $$$ </span><a href="https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2018/09/the-polemical-power-we-dont-use-wagers.html" style="font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;" target="_blank">wager stakes </a><span style="font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;">over that assertion; but first look at things like the ICC, CAB, AT&T and the damned War on Drugs - and now on reproductive rights.)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Here, in this New York Times article - <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/14/briefing/google-on-trial.html" target="_blank">Google on Trial</a> - a corner of this program is appraised -- whether anti-trust laws can and should be used to break up super-corporations like Google who have inherent advantages. And yeah, that's a major issue. Cory Doctorow rails about it, entertainingly.</span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Left out are more imaginative solutions. Like whether it's time to help mom & pop America and get needed revenue by instituting a 5% <i>National Sales Tax on interstate internet purchases.</i> Since you-know-who (a South American river) is no longer a baby - but now a market dominating behemoth. In fact, since we <i>all</i> rely on that central market, without much other choice, isn't that the very definition of a<i> public utility? </i>(Ponder that. Treat that unavoidable e-marketplace like electricity and water and trash pickup. If there's no competition, then regulate it to be flat-fair-for-all?)</span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">But the core issue that I keep returning to is one of tactics - at which Democrats (the Union Side in this <a href="https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2014/09/phases-of-american-civil-war.html" target="_blank">8th phase of the 250 year U.S. Civil War</a>) have proved utterly inept! </span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">It's the reason why I wrote <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/polemicaljudo.html" target="_blank">Polemical Judo</a>. </span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">A few better tactics and we could <i>peel away</i> just one million residually sane Republicans, leaving the Confederacy in a state of utter, demographic collapse. </span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">(Of course then the oligarchs will resort to more violent versions of incitement; but we have skilled defenders working on that, right now, e.g. in the much maligned heroes of the FBI.)</span></span></div></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><p class="p1" style="font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>And this...</b></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p class="p27" style="font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">In this <a href="https://stratnews.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6e1697101dcf6f7d398b82b67&id=fd89502c9f&e=3c0b4d211d" target="_blank">conversation</a>, Evan Anderson, CEO of INVNT/IP, an expert on global manufacturing and supply chains, takes us on a deep dive into the power dynamics between the United States, China, and Taiwan.</span></p><p class="p27" style="font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; white-space: normal;"><br /></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== Merits and drawbacks of government-funded science ==</b></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And finally, as promised, here's that</span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> excerpt from an essay on my more formal, WordPress site asking <a href="https://davidbrin.wordpress.com/2023/10/05/does-government-funded-science-play-a-role-in-stimulating-innovation/" target="_blank">"</a></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://davidbrin.wordpress.com/2023/10/05/does-government-funded-science-play-a-role-in-stimulating-innovation/" target="_blank"><span style="border-color: currentcolor; border-image: none 100% / 1 / 0 stretch; border-style: none; font-style: inherit; outline-color: currentcolor; outline-style: none;">Does government-funded science play a role in stimulating innovation?</span>"</a></span></p><p style="font-family: -webkit-standard; white-space: normal;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; orphans: 2; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">There's a deep-cult that underlies many of our familiar political cults. What do the far left and today's entire right share in common? A desperate urge to AMPUTATE our options and methods down to only the few that they prescribe. And hence I posted (on my formal WordPress site) a dissection of this shared, sanctimoniously-oversimplifying, mania.</span></span></p><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: -webkit-standard; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; orphans: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1BfZ-P_cYPvvwCaK-m_OhOCBFA-PMvk6X_XllhUax1pkMSOVp-qhjJ5Zef_8osTpoUSMsjT-aUc2ehR4mXjvEXBDvNJk2_LfQpjMimZjNbEn5s24n28WDs0kAQB3Nd18UVBDwRBODc1TJBP0tpL6nl5kCpUiVnDrKc_Zxmcz3CAKEquIJIw/s935/innovation.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="611" data-original-width="935" height="209" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1BfZ-P_cYPvvwCaK-m_OhOCBFA-PMvk6X_XllhUax1pkMSOVp-qhjJ5Zef_8osTpoUSMsjT-aUc2ehR4mXjvEXBDvNJk2_LfQpjMimZjNbEn5s24n28WDs0kAQB3Nd18UVBDwRBODc1TJBP0tpL6nl5kCpUiVnDrKc_Zxmcz3CAKEquIJIw/s320/innovation.png" width="320" /></a></div>Excerpt: <i>"For a century and a half, followers of Karl Marx demanded that we amputate society’s right arm of market-competitive <a style="color: #385898; cursor: pointer;" tabindex="-1"></a>enterprise and rely only on socialist guided-allocation for economic control. Meanwhile, Ayn Rand’s ilk led a throng of those proclaiming we must lop off our left arm – forswearing any coordinated projects that look beyond the typical five year (nowadays more like one-year) commercial investment horizon. </i></span></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: -webkit-standard; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; orphans: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>"Any sensible person would respond: “Hey I need both arms, so bugger off! Now let’s keep examining what each arm is good at, revising our knowledge of what each shouldn’t do.”</i></span></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: -webkit-standard; font-variant-ligatures: normal; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; orphans: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>"Does that sound too practical and moderate for this era? Our parents thought they had dealt with all this, proving decisively that calm negotiation, compromise and pragmatic mixed-solutions work best. They would be stunned to see that fanatical would-be amputators are back in force, ranting nonsense."</i></span></div></div><p style="font-family: -webkit-standard; white-space: normal;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; orphans: 2; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;">If you are interested in this... and especially whether government-funded science has played a big role in "Making America (and civilization) Great," <a href="https://davidbrin.wordpress.com/2023/10/05/does-government-funded-science-play-a-role-in-stimulating-innovation/" target="_blank">then drop on by</a>.</span></span></p><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; orphans: 2; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><br /></span></span></div></span></span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com196tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-90403172956487207672024-02-18T15:33:00.000-08:002024-02-18T17:44:12.249-08:00Sci Fi News & roundup!<p class="p1" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;">First a few items about my own works. In about a month, two of my books - </span><a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/earth.html" style="font-family: arial;" target="_blank"><b>Earth</b></a><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"> and </span><a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/gloryseason.html" style="font-family: arial;" target="_blank"><b>Glory Season</b></a><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"> - will be re-released by </span><a href="https://openroadmedia.com/search-results/books/david%20brin" style="font-family: arial;" target="_blank">Open Road Media</a><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"> - with gorgeous new covers, in both trade paperback and ebook versions. Pre-order now?</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><a href="https://markarayner.com/earth-by-david-brin/" target="_blank"></a></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;">Here, </span><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;">Mark Rayner's </span><a href="https://markarayner.com/earth-by-david-brin/" style="font-family: arial;" target="_blank">lovely review of my novel Earth </a><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;">is very flattering. </span></span><p></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglJlnzeH6IqkTTvyN4l12rRrf731aX0xwPAXW0hMqm7HlD1h0lzbf8Mx5qykGTewXb0hUTHhlN1qXGihMpeQ6DaLXJdoLcFu8XHdKphwCrw_qoqubJ95z1BQQkWYIwpMiL9K5xLX2hKvRnEzIAZoCkUHnNwQGvGOAUrabVA_J_o0TES6vaZg/s933/earth-gs.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="701" data-original-width="933" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglJlnzeH6IqkTTvyN4l12rRrf731aX0xwPAXW0hMqm7HlD1h0lzbf8Mx5qykGTewXb0hUTHhlN1qXGihMpeQ6DaLXJdoLcFu8XHdKphwCrw_qoqubJ95z1BQQkWYIwpMiL9K5xLX2hKvRnEzIAZoCkUHnNwQGvGOAUrabVA_J_o0TES6vaZg/w353-h265/earth-gs.png" width="353" /></a></span><span style="font-size: medium;"><span class="s3" style="font-family: arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">For any of you completists out there: my first novel – <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/sundiver.html" target="_blank">Sundiver</a> - is the only one that <i>never had a hardcover</i>. Now one is coming… and what an edition!<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Alex Berman's <a href="https://phantasiapress.com/search?q=+brin&options%5Bprefix%5D=last" target="_blank">Phantasia Press</a> will release “</span><span style="font-family: arial;">Numbered editions which will feature a full color wrap around dustjacket, frontispiece, and <i>interior art by Jim Burns</i>. </span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Each copy will be printed in two colors throughout, on high quality acid free Smythe sewn paper with full color endsheets.” Phantasia previously released <a href="https://phantasiapress.com/search?q=+brin&options%5Bprefix%5D=last" target="_blank">signed limited editions</a> of the second and third books in the series (<a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/startiderising.html" target="_blank">Startide Rising</a> in 1983 and <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/upliftwar.html" target="_blank">The Uplift War</a> in 1987).</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Expected release date<span> early 2024.</span></span></span></p><p></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">This edition includes my 2020 foreword and a terrific Robert J. Sawyer introduction specifically for this release.</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Do you know YA? I am looking for a new publisher for my series of short novels for teens, featuring some of today's brightest new authors, in a consistent future setting for adventures through interstellar space and <i>time!</i> The <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/outoftime.html" target="_blank">"Out of Time" (or "Yanked!") series:</a> Only teens can teleport through time and space! Dollops of fun, adventure and something <i>so</i> rare, nowadays... <i>optimism</i> for young adults. If you think of a publisher who might be compatible, speak up in comments!</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #040404;">Finally, are you a fan of live theater? We were in Pasadena at our alma mater - Caltech - to attend a one-night production of my play, "</span><a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/escape.html" target="_blank">The Escape: A Confrontation in Four Scenes</a><span style="color: #040404;">," presented by the Caltech Playreaders. The directing/acting/performances were beyond my best hopes! You can watch the production </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fy3qPm74XoE" target="_blank">on Youtube</a><span class="s2" style="color: black;">.</span></span></p><p class="p5" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p5" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><p class="p6" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== Sci Fi Roundup! ==</span></b></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p5" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Almost the <a href="http://reanimus.com/store/index.cgi?author=Norman%20Spinrad" target="_blank">entire catalogue of sci fi legend Norman Spinrad</a> is available (cheap) online. If you don’t read it… coming generations of AI surely will!</span></p><p class="p10" style="color: #0433ff; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p5" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGLXBwNyvG7CaZuUS3Z_zX_6NRcXBMb3hHhbPxTL_R_ARku9HXgmB7Xh-uV_6LT9nea36G9pMKEr2oizbrAysLF7DT59rp27pUbSeOWDrE6vWAEu0HuEKgldq_gNGXBjPpo3Ko4yicbLAIZ7XoA1BeXCBPiOTQHrtv7LeWRxo9P5XiWcp_uA/s1500/91vqOEruh1L._SL1500_.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1500" data-original-width="1029" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGLXBwNyvG7CaZuUS3Z_zX_6NRcXBMb3hHhbPxTL_R_ARku9HXgmB7Xh-uV_6LT9nea36G9pMKEr2oizbrAysLF7DT59rp27pUbSeOWDrE6vWAEu0HuEKgldq_gNGXBjPpo3Ko4yicbLAIZ7XoA1BeXCBPiOTQHrtv7LeWRxo9P5XiWcp_uA/w185-h270/91vqOEruh1L._SL1500_.jpg" width="185" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Thomas Easton and Frank Wu have a future-tech spy series going. <a href="https://amzn.to/3TslOXj" target="_blank">ESPionage: Regime Change: A Psychic CIA novel</a>. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">When the Russians start an undeclared war to bring down the West with assassinations and disinformation attacks, the CIA reactivates a psychic agent from its old Project Stargate to fight off the attacks. </span><span class="s7" style="color: #292929; font-family: arial;"> See <a href="https://amazingstories.com/2023/08/a-review-of-espionage-regime-change-by-paul-di-filippo/?fbclid=IwAR0AdXeVfO91pcWUBUFdSOb8D7KNnmV3ixQsTEPCSsQV2KcNV1xkfa3gItQ" target="_blank">Paul DiFilippo’s rave review!</a></span></span><p></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2d2d2d; font-family: arial;">Eliot Peper's latest novel </span><a href="https://amzn.to/481eS82" style="font-family: arial;" target="_blank">Foundry</a><span style="color: #2d2d2d; font-family: arial;"> is a near-future thriller featuring (among many things) two spies locked in a room with a gun, leveraging the secrets of semiconductor manufacturing to play the greatest of games, the only game that really matters: power.</span></span></p><p class="p12" style="color: #106dd6; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s8" style="color: #2d2d2d;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></span></p><p class="p5" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Just finished reading a YA novel by Gideon Marcus… <i><a href="https://amzn.to/3t9Hj4M" target="_blank">Kitra</a>.</i> A lovely, lively adventure tale of five teens – one of them a blobby alien – getting into and out of trouble when they buy a used spaceship. Fast paced and Gideon has got the skills. Hook your own teen on the series!</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p5" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxYBi8xNNVO7MdSFD07bLcfKqEQn_6aV6n3Co1bL4PGJf-fJtF33GtaLM8UaXHl8SsmDDZ6flHwnwK470r5VRkc0p0oQKen9z4TU8_HSv5uPYbcfQILRe4NWY70uEfkUFy5Ku7BfahLhaG4hbOkli21d-FLE83yrUbpLEaYmvnc6xfGJlyqw/s1500/91VcL+kztQL._SL1500_.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1500" data-original-width="970" height="303" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxYBi8xNNVO7MdSFD07bLcfKqEQn_6aV6n3Co1bL4PGJf-fJtF33GtaLM8UaXHl8SsmDDZ6flHwnwK470r5VRkc0p0oQKen9z4TU8_HSv5uPYbcfQILRe4NWY70uEfkUFy5Ku7BfahLhaG4hbOkli21d-FLE83yrUbpLEaYmvnc6xfGJlyqw/w196-h303/91VcL+kztQL._SL1500_.jpg" width="196" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Amid headlines covering the demise of JFK on November 22, 1963, I long knew that an obit on the back pages told of the same-day passing of Aldous Huxley, supposedly during an acid trip (I hear) in the arms of a lady guru. (I’d rather blithely believe that hearsay than look it up.) What I never realized was that C.S. Lewis ALSo died the same day!<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>This book - <a href="https://amzn.to/41mJXAF" target="_blank">Between Heaven and Hell: A Dialog beyond death with John F. Kennedy, C.S. Lewis and Aldous Huxley</a> - imagines JFK, CSL and Aldous meeting in the Bardo just after death. One of them on a lingering acid trip, one shouting "Wait, I was so young and powerful!" and Lewis shocked to find himself in a buddhist waiting room.</span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial;"><b>Calling nerdy SF + NASA junkies...</b></span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial;"><b><br /></b></span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span class="s1" style="font-family: Arial;">As I retire from 12 years on the advisory council of NASA’s Innovative & Advanced Concepts program – (NIAC) – some high NASA officials have asked if any great science fiction was ever inspired by NIAC studies. In addition to my own, I know of as few more. Especially, Doug Van Belle’s </span><span style="color: #2d2d2d; font-family: Arial;"><a href="https://amzn.to/3GKT8kV" target="_blank">A World Adrift</a> - set in the skies of Venus, some 800 years after they were first colonized - incorporates elements from several NIAC studies, including Stoica (2015), Bugga (2016), and Balcerski (2018), with work by space scientist and Nebula winner Geoff Landis (2019) figuring prominently as an essential element of the plot.</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><p class="p2" style="font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>==SF & Hollywood ==</b></span></p><p class="p2" style="color: #3ea2ee; font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p5" style="font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s5">Writing this on <a href="https://www.startrek.com/day" target="_blank">Star Trek Day!</a> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span>Count me in with this wave of love for Trek! I do adore it for some unusual reasons, though. Example, the <i>ship</i> in Trek is a vast naval vessel charged with diplomacy, science, exploration and only occasionally fighting... and the captain is no super-force demigod (the core conceit of Star Wars) but merely a way-above-average person, who needs help every time, from above average crewmates. And the Federation is aboard, a topic almost every episode. It's faults and blessings and rules and codes and dreams and possibilities. (See my essay, <a href="https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2016/09/to-boldly-go-star-trek-at-fifty.html" target="_blank">To Boldly Go</a>.)<br /><br /><i>(Shoot! Shoot the Federations starship!" screeched that nasty oven mitt, Yoda, in one of the prequels. Seriously, Lucas? Are you at all the same person who created the wonderfull YIJC?)</i><br /><br />In contrast, the <i>ship</i> in Star Wars is a <i>WWI fighter plane</i> (banking against nonexistent air) with the silkscarf lone hero-pilot and his gunner-droid... the knight and squire going back to Achilles & Patroclus. <i>Wars</i> is all about demigods, demigods. Demigods all the way down. Normal folk can only choose <i>which</i> set of feuding gods to die for. And the poor, hapless Galactic Republic has no place on such a ship. Hence it is never really a topic. The Starwarsian Galactic Republic <i>does</i> <i>nothing</i>. Ever. At all. Name an exception. The lesson is the same as in all works by Orson Scott Card: "Hold out no hope for a decent civilization. Throw yourself at the feet of a demigod and pray he'll be a nice one, like Ender!"<br /><br />All of this and more is in <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/vividtomorrows.html" target="_blank">Vivid Tomorrows: Science Fiction and Hollywood</a>. </span></p><p class="p2" style="color: #3ea2ee; font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s1" style="text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration: underline;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>Oh. Also. In this </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTCc2-1tbBQ" target="_blank">podcast</a><span>, a brilliant Stanford biologist cites his influences, including science fiction authors.</span> <span>(Especially about 9 minutes in.</span><u>)</u></span></p><p class="p6" style="color: #3ea2ee; font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="color: #3ea2ee; font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="color: #121a21; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And here's an bit for those who saw and loved (I did, with minor quibbles) the recent <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15398776/" target="_blank">Oppenheimer</a> film: a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdtLxlttrHg" target="_blank">CBS 1965 interview with Oppenheimer.</a> Twenty years after Trinity. Twenty years before Gorbachev.</span></p><p class="p2" style="color: #3ea2ee; font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s1" style="text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration: underline;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p6" style="font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s1"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== Science meets art! ==</span></b></span></p><p class="p2" style="color: #3ea2ee; font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p9" style="color: #2b2b2b; font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">If you are interested (as I am) in the intersections of science and art, then this might be a good listen for 20 minutes during your commute: an <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03390-y?" target="_blank">interview</a> with half a dozen artists and musicians who collaborate closely with scientists. Fun and inspiring! There are also links to other discussions about the societal impact of science fiction. </span></p><p class="p9" style="color: #2b2b2b; font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="p9" style="color: #2b2b2b; font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Of course, having spent my entire post-puberty life in both realms, I have my own take on science overlaps – and conflicts – with art. Or more generally, the tense but often productive interplay between pragmatic-enlightenment methods, on the one hand, and the deeper-rooted human drive for romanticism. <br /></span></p><p class="p9" style="color: #2b2b2b; font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p9" style="color: #2b2b2b; font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">As I describe in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTP4sVd9oLc"><span class="s6" style="color: #1b81dc;">another program</span></a> – and in <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/vividtomorrows.html"><span class="s6" style="color: #1b81dc;">Vivid Tomorrows</span></a> – we would live far poorer, even soulless lives, without the mighty talent of creative imagination. Though we have – at long last – also come to realize how dangerous – even devastatingly deadly – imagination can become, when it seizes control of <i>politics and policy.</i> A failure mode that made the last 6000 years a living hell for 99.99% of our ancestors, until the last few generations began emerging from that world of delusion and ghosts and ‘magic.’</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p9" style="color: #2b2b2b; font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">I do what most of those interviewed do - craft art that can collaborate with... or challenge... or project possible outcomes of... a scientific civilization that's dedicated to the kind of progress that only comes from lively, good-natured rivalry among the widest diversity of free minds. In other words, the diametric opposite to those 6000 dark years.</span></p><p class="p9" style="color: #2b2b2b; font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p9" style="color: #2b2b2b; font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Obeying unsapient reflexes, many members of a world oligarchy think they can make things much bettwer if they restore those 6000 years of brutal feudalism. Ingrate traitors to the one, unique civilization that gave them everything.</span></p><p class="p9" style="color: #2b2b2b; font-family: -webkit-standard; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p></span><p class="p5" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>And finally....</b></span></p><p class="p5" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p5" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">North Korean science fiction? In <a href="https://arstechnica.com/culture/2023/08/the-strange-secretive-world-of-north-korean-science-fiction/" target="_blank">The strange, secretive world of North Korean science fiction</a>, A. Fiscutean reports that “Late dictator Kim Jong-il referenced science fiction books in his speeches and set guidelines for authors, encouraging them to write about optimistic futures for their country.” Of course, the father of the current dictator also had a fetish for moviemaking and (apparently) even arranged for some film creators to be kidnapped and brought to Pyongyang.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> Further, </span>“Stories often touch on topics like space travel, benevolent robots, disease-curing nanobots, and deep-sea exploration. They lack aliens and beings with superpowers. Instead, the real superheroes are the exceptional North Korean scientists and technologists who carry the weight of the world on their shoulders.”</span></p><p class="p5" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p5" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Phew, no wonder Donald Trump 'fell in love' with Kim the younger! We must be under an alien Stoopidizer ray, that such 'leaders' are even possible.</span></p><p class="p5" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p5" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>Oh, an addendum... on travel to Panama!</b></span></p><p class="p5" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p5" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Come on by comments if you have suggestions for our trip (to the <a href="https://bgi24.ai/" target="_blank">Beneficial AGI Summit</a>)...</span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com76tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-50667383659141134692024-02-09T18:30:00.000-08:002024-02-10T10:33:04.367-08:00Tucker's Mother of all (softball) Interviews. What a real journalist might have asked about Russia and the kompromat war.<p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Despite his being there to pitch softballs for his master, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/tucker-carlson-putin-full-interview-video-news-b2493555.html" style="color: #954f72;">Tucker Carlson was treated by Putin</a> the same way that Donald Trump treats <i>his</i> lackeys - with curt contempt. A real journalist <i>might</i> have asked:<i> </i></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i><br /></i></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">"Will you present evidence to a broad, impartial, international commission that Jewish President Zelensky and the several million Ukrainian volunteers who have fought you tenaciously - are Nazis? Would you go along with that commission polling large numbers of random Ukrainians, to see if they deem themselves to be Russian?"</span></i></p><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">More:<i> </i></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><i><br /></i></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiBA6PDLjX5MGEQaBc_n5e48sD0mSxpXG7O3fg3_-IoAeexkuWxYs8pbqNi8tTlIFiL0g0Fy6jkKMqEb82KZRVQU9YDhV-MKw6UQjYG4V7luSL6MUngBViVB1i42WcAuFaRcB3efC5VfNNFZ1QDS1lY0Edp62CvIxVFc923QlfBn0FBHImmg/s936/FROM-RUSSIA.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="936" data-original-width="701" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiBA6PDLjX5MGEQaBc_n5e48sD0mSxpXG7O3fg3_-IoAeexkuWxYs8pbqNi8tTlIFiL0g0Fy6jkKMqEb82KZRVQU9YDhV-MKw6UQjYG4V7luSL6MUngBViVB1i42WcAuFaRcB3efC5VfNNFZ1QDS1lY0Edp62CvIxVFc923QlfBn0FBHImmg/s320/FROM-RUSSIA.png" width="240" /></a></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>"Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn said that Ukrainians will only accept Russians as brothers after a century of gentle friendship, to ease memory of past, horrific ill-treatment. </i></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><i><br /></i></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>"So, now, amid half a million deaths, 6 million buried land mines and whole cities pounded into charred dust, should Ukrainians care about your 'historical grudges' from the 13th Century?"</i></span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">...and: </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>"You claim the West threatens you with invasion. Then why have you stripped your western borders of every military unit you can send to the front? If you claim those borders are strong, even now, shall we let a commission verify? </i></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><i><br /></i></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>"Anyone with a drone can tell there's no one there, so aren't you absolutely counting on western rule-of-law to prevent the very thing you claim to fear?"</i></span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">...and: </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>"Shall we right now agree to form such a commission, made up of Russian, Ukrainian, western and nonaligned citizens, chosen at random from old, paper telephone directories? Let them go anywhere, interview whom they like, and report to the world about your "nazi" assertions and the determination of Ukrainians, and the morale of Russian troops, and so on?"</i></span><br /><br />...and:</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>"At minimum, would you agree to letting an interview with Joe Biden get as much free access, for 2 hours, across Russia, as you have used this one to push your messages to Western citizens? Are you brave enough to risk Russians hearing Biden? Or Kamala?"</i></span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Finally: </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">"You and most of the powerful men in Russia today grew up reciting Leninist catechisms, waving hammer/sickle banners, and condemning the czar and his boyars as monsters. You have many times called the end of the USSR 'History's greatest tragedy.' </span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">"Now, you and your fellow "ex"-commissar Russian oligarchs raise statues to the same czars. You appear to have taken over the US right, just by switching a few symbols and lapel pins (plus some kompromat held by the slightly relabeled KGB.) </span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">"For decades, the 'historical imperatives' that you pushed were <u>Marxist</u>, internationalist slogans about workers rising above tribalism. </span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">"Now it's Russian hyper nationalism. </span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">"Hence a final question:</span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">"What line will you push, tomorrow?"</span></i><br /><br /><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== When will the blackmail be obvious enough? ==</span></b></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">For more than a decade I’ve shouted that this should be obvious: that many of our elites, especially in DC and not <i>just</i> in the Republican Party – behave in ways that cannot be explained by corruption, or fanaticism, or stupidity alone.<br /><br />It's a point that seems obvious and yet so hard to get across. So please try to grasp this: <i>by itself, graft is satiable!</i> </span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">A corrupt official who has avoided leaving an evidence trail can say <i>“That’s enough this year. Any more favors I do for you will scream for attention that I don’t want. Come back with your envelopes of cash next year.”</i><span class="Apple-converted-space"> Again, bribery alone does not explain the craven self-humiliation of so many, with Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz only the screaming-blatant tips of the tumor.</span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">But their craven kowtowing IS explicable, because <i>blackmail is insatiable!</i> The more you do for a blackmailer, the deeper they sink in their claws. Especially since Kremlin operatives -- stretching back to Stalin’s NKVD & KGB and the Czarist Checka and Okrahna -- specialized in <i>honey traps</i>. Luring Western officials etc. into hanky panky hotel rooms, where recordings begin that digging-in of claws.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>A year or two ago, Republican Congressman Madison Cawthorn <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/28/politics/madison-cawthorn-orgy-invite-cocaine-claim/index.html" target="_blank">declared</a> that his peers invited him to incredible sex orgies. He was punished for this candor with ejection from the party! <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></b></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /><b>Only now, an <u>even braver</u> GOP lawmaker has stepped up to blow the whistle harder!</b> </span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i><br /></i></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>“A Tennessee Congressman warns that fellow Republicans in the House of Representatives have been <u>lured into honeytraps </u>with sex workers and drugs changing the way they vote…. If it's women, drugs, booze, it will find you in D.C. and in most elected offices,”</i> <a href="https://www.rawstory.com/tim-burchett-congressman/?" target="_blank">said Rep. Tim Burchett</a>. <i>“That’s what people, power and influence do.”</i><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">(Well, after 6000 years of feudal lords & kings doing whatever they want, it’s what a large fraction of <i>males</i> will always be tempted to do. Though some can keep it zipped! And shall we compare rates of turpitude between the parties, Rep. Tim?)</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">In this other <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/gop-representative-blackmail-honeypot-congress-b2468559.html" target="_blank">article</a>: <i>“As Burchett tells it, Republicans aren’t backing important efforts, such as Rep. Marsha Blackburn’s crusade for Jeffrey Epstein’s flight logs, because they’re being bullied by big backers and Russians.”</i> Again: he attributed the biggest actors doing these "honey pots" to Russian agencies. </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">(Full disclosure: Mr. Burchett has been pushing for the Pentagon to make all of its information relating to unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs) available to the public. <a href="http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2021/07/whats-really-up-with-uaps-ufos.html." target="_blank">And I am fine with that!</a><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>I just doubt there’s anything much to divulge. </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== Can anything be done? ==</span></b></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">I’ve long believed that Joe Biden could do <i>one thing</i> – above all others – to rescue the republic, to restore honest government and to get us rolling toward all the good things that <i>you</i> want. That one thing?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b></b></span></div><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Announce a program of clemency, pardons and whistleblower rewards for the first dozen politicians in DC - or other elites - who step up to fess up and help turn the tables on any blackmail rings.</span></b><p></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>Even with promised pardons, it would still take real courage to answer this call. A dangerous move in half a dozen ways. And hence, Biden’s promise to treat the first few as flawed but real heroes, at last doing what their consciences should have made them do, from the start.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>(I even started writing a novel based on this concept, till I realized I need a collaborator from the world of FBI procedural fiction – an area I know little about! Anyone know one?)</i></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Oh, and let’s spice up JoBee's offer, cash inducements and a new identity for any KGB/FSB officer who <i>brings over</i> those Kompromat Files. That oughta light a fire under folks like Linds--- but no, I’ll leave you all to fill in the blanks.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Envision it. Sure, some prominent dems and liberals would get caught up, as well. Maybe folks in Biden’s circle. And so? What better proof of sincerity?<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Anyway, let's suppose that devastates the male-heavy power structure. SO? <i>If leaves nearly all remaining politicians female, aren’t Dems ready for that, anyway?</i></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== Get educated ==</span></b></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Here’s an incredible <a href="https://art19.com/shows/talking-feds/episodes/f3ecef50-f14d-4704-a10c-15e97cd66506?f" target="_blank">interview</a> from a couple of years ago, with senior members of the Mueller probe, about The Russian Connection.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And don’t let the Fox narrative (“Mueller was a nothing burger!”) fool you. Just the stench-rich convictions surrounding two-time Republican national campaign manager and Putin lackey Paul Manafort - and I mean Manafort <i>alone - </i>swamps any <i>total</i> compilation of Democratic sins. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">But about 20 minutes in, these experts discuss ‘kompromat’ and how prolifically Russian secret services are known to use these methods. <i>“It happens all day, every day.”</i></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== The real way to defeat Russian blackmail ==</span></b></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Re Blackmail, honeytraps have probably been used as long as there have been rulers to compromise. But on a lighter note:</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Perhaps part of the solution is to become "French" about political sex scandals that don't involve minors or abuse of power. I love the story of the French diplomat who, lured into a honeypot in a tryst hotel, is shown pictures… and he explodes in outrage!</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">"You call THIS photography? And from my bad side?</span></i></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i></i><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">“My wife would be shamed on my behalf.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>I demand a re-do!!"</span></i></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></i></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></i></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com209tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-27180373550222041932024-02-07T11:31:00.000-08:002024-02-08T13:43:26.854-08:00Brief midweek post: The time flow of Wisdom<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">This week’s missive by <a href="https://www.noemamag.com/the-philosophy-of-co-becoming/" target="_blank">Nathan Gardels in Noema Magazine</a> – about longstanding Eastern philosophical alternatives to Western Modernity - was thoughtful, informative and moving. “<i><a href="https://www.noemamag.com/the-philosophy-of-co-becoming/" target="_blank">The Philosophy Of Co-Becoming</a>: Ancient concepts of the relational interdependence of humans and nature are being revived.” </i></span></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHY0cm31iMuhsrYNyfcYbj5LfRXsGmAlizf8kgCdwx2mkUopTfmmWTE8J0A525oIuXdFfjs2DLEgj3BTGJSICAxmXUG_sc6ntuKdFlcDLju6HlMvW3PC08EgS1dvr55O-rpOYwgoeNRl1ZL3D12NCpNx-VV7Q7aI28RSRodAi7lLSU6PgVlA/s1306/Screenshot%202024-02-07%20at%2011.27.51%E2%80%AFAM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="569" data-original-width="1306" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHY0cm31iMuhsrYNyfcYbj5LfRXsGmAlizf8kgCdwx2mkUopTfmmWTE8J0A525oIuXdFfjs2DLEgj3BTGJSICAxmXUG_sc6ntuKdFlcDLju6HlMvW3PC08EgS1dvr55O-rpOYwgoeNRl1ZL3D12NCpNx-VV7Q7aI28RSRodAi7lLSU6PgVlA/w387-h168/Screenshot%202024-02-07%20at%2011.27.51%E2%80%AFAM.png" width="387" /></span></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202020;">Indeed, without any doubt, Western notions of supreme individualism can exacerbate into toxic negligence toward the many ‘wholes’ of which each of us is a part.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #333333; letter-spacing: -0.25pt;"> </span></span><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202020;">Still - (and you knew that a ‘still’ would come from this contrarian!) – I am reminded that <i>‘by their fruits you shall know them.'</i> <br /><br /></span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202020;">Sure, Western industrial civilization threatens to destroy all the Fruits of Nature… indeed, the planet we depend upon… unless that same civilization’s commitment to science, conscience, and relentless self-criticism – leading to the world’s first wave of major environmentalism – all prove adequate to mitigate those harms.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202020;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202020;">Above all – as I point out in <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/vividtomorrows.html" target="_blank">Vivid Tomorrows</a> – the West’s altered philosophy does not <i>only</i> have to do with individualism. It also transformed notions of TIME and of HISTORY.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">During my time talking to students in China, I found that even those who loved science fiction also felt a profound ambivalence. Many of them fretted over admitting even the <i>possibility</i> that the future might be better. That people might learn from past mistakes and gradually improve. To them this seemed an implied insult to their ancestors! When I probed this reflex, each of them admitted wanting their own children to be ‘better’ and going to great pains and expense to make that so. I pointed out that - no doubt – their revered ancestors wanted that, as well. So how was it insulting to admit that they succeeded at their fondest goal? I number of the students stared back at me, wide-eyed, having clearly never thought of that.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">What I came to realize: they were expressing the ‘Look Back’ zeitgeist that dominated almost all philosophies, across all of time! That there were Golden Ages in the past, when people were better and that things have declined since. And not just in the East, but almost all mythic systems across the globe, including the West. Even today, you can find it totally dominant among millennialists like those fervently praying for End Times.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202020;">Or else, more secular, but just as fanatical, is a political cult that clutches almost biblically a tome pushing a meritless mishmash of so-called “<a href="https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2023/12/the-obsession-with-historical-cycles.html" target="_blank">cyclical history</a>” called <a href="https://amzn.to/3UwV6O0" target="_blank">The Fourth Turning</a>. </span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEge6jQ8tFHWhi28mzLCrHKAHAguW7hAfjD2H_Rj99ekEH9I0w9NG5CnGI1pLE4Cbj8MfR3bmp-Qc3us8Bhmrjy8yEV5avS6iUD-yn1GumRcTZRc7QeltCh1gvzH2O9OFVcjLZ37JlUS9sCQCl44bJixUc2ogRR9n5zRwuJVW_hfUgWYwqWuZA/s936/TIME-FLOW.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="936" data-original-width="701" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEge6jQ8tFHWhi28mzLCrHKAHAguW7hAfjD2H_Rj99ekEH9I0w9NG5CnGI1pLE4Cbj8MfR3bmp-Qc3us8Bhmrjy8yEV5avS6iUD-yn1GumRcTZRc7QeltCh1gvzH2O9OFVcjLZ37JlUS9sCQCl44bJixUc2ogRR9n5zRwuJVW_hfUgWYwqWuZA/s320/TIME-FLOW.png" width="240" /></a></span></span></div><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">But <i>overall</i>, there certainly has been a departure from standard reflexes, in the West. Indeed, other than individualism, the biggest philosophical change we’ve made – (though ignored by almost all philosophers) - has been<i> </i>to reverse the perceived <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/libertarian1.html" target="_blank">Time Flow of Wisdom</a>. </span></span><div><span style="color: #202020; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">For example, we now know – from very clear archaeology, anthropology etc. - that there was never some grand, past golden age. Indeed, any Golden Age – if ever – will be something that we build… or our successors might… in the future. Hence the time reversal in perspective that some find daunting, even sacrilegious..<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202020;">My second point has to do with history – that horrible litany of horrors across 6000 years (or much more), nearly all of it dominated by brutal males who repressed progress by crushing any possible hist of criticism or competition by bright sons and daughters of those below. Whereupon those lords hired priests and ‘philosophers’ to preach lessons of humility and acceptance to the masses.</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br />Is individuality that much better? Not if it becomes the all-against-all insanity pursued by some… and that the West is denounced as promoting! <o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202020;">But it has never been so among a majority, even of Americans. Want evidence? Look in a mirror. Your own critical view toward excessively insatiable egotism and greedy hyper individualism is far more widely shared than you tend to (egotistically?) believe. Most of the pro-individualism messages carried by Western myths come accompanied by finger-wag lessons about “don’t be a jerk about it.”</span><span face="Arial, sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in;"><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And maybe seek a little wholeness with others… and serenity… while you are at it.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">For more impudent challenges to assumptions we all suckled from movies... </span></span></div><div><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">.... as I explore in my nonfiction work - <a href=" http://www.davidbrin.com/vividtomorrows.html" target="_blank">Vivid Tomorrows: Science Fiction and Hollywood.</a></span></span><div><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background: white; color: #202020;"><br /></span></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com73tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-52349651107234413062024-02-04T15:30:00.000-08:002024-02-16T09:46:06.098-08:00Oh those idiotic "cycles of history,' yet again!<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b> <span>A 'rightward shift'? Only if our confidence is destroyed! Which <i>both</i> MAGA and Hollywood seem bent on achieving.</span></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://amzn.to/3Q2tAVN" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="445" data-original-width="293" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1tMi6yqu9_TDvJxp77RBS0efiHBQYMX4wd63RVjwU8GLnvBpQWaqYPnlsdt2jGvKN9BgQok_HH5EpNV0CmRHZARvgM4lwE_Uiw-cTSYUXp3qYOquuXw-8Ga964kacwcxI7Q0-TocRyj7yX7iAKrwE3bQFfW15HNqdRYIRbX3dkpG-wYLypQ/s320/41eMGDCPcbL._SY445_SX342_.jpg" width="211" /></a></span></div><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I quote below a passage from interesting book -- <i><a href="https://amzn.to/3Q2tAVN" target="_blank">The Aftermath: The last days of the baby boom and the future of power in America</a>,</i> by Philip Bump. Indeed, as far as it goes (see below) the passage and the article/book make some supportable assertions. Certainly my own kids mutter “boomers!” pretty often, sometimes without a smile!</span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>And yet, this obsession is also misleading. For one thing, U.S. boomers aren't French. They </span><i>like</i><span> to work and have politically allowed the retirement age to keep incrementing upward, in order to maintain Social Security solvency as lifespans rise. (A further increment is on the table, refused by Republicans, who dread an end to one of their top complaints.)</span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><br /></span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>So far, Boomers are still paying their way.</span></span></p><p class="p18" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p17" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>Are</i> there many of the generational problems that Mr. Bump cites? Sure. For one thing, a substantial <i>minority</i> of boomers are Trumpers, resentful toward America's ongoing, 200 year project of ever-expanding inclusiveness. That large minority of boomers is also biliously hate-drenched toward all of the fact and knowledge castes - those nerds & professionals who seem to understand a world that MAGAs find bewildering. </span></span></p><p class="p17" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p17" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">(Name an exception to this near-uniform resentment, from science, teaching, journalism, law and medicine to the FBI/Intel/military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on Terror, all now MAGA-hated. That resentment of achievers is far stronger than their racism or sexism.)<br /></span></span></p><p class="p17" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">On the other hand, a <i>larger</i> segment of that boomer generation <i>are</i> members of - or associates with - the fact and knowledge castes! The greatest and most creative such clade of humans the world ever saw, leading to heaps of <a href="https://futurecrunch.com/goodnews2023/" target="_blank">very good news</a> seldom mentioned in exploitive media.</span></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> Moreover, those fact-and-progress-oriented boomers are (for the most part) eager mentors and enablers of their coming replacements. And there's <i>another</i> fact that’s seldom mentioned - that <i>boomers will leave to their heirs the greatest tsunami of middle class wealth the world ever saw.</i> Though – as described below – it could have even even bigger.</span></span></p><p class="p20" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">No, all this 'boomer' talk is - to some extent - deliberate distraction! <i>Generation-fixation is a cult,</i> especially among rightist intelligencia, desperate to divert attention from the real story - the real divide - which is (as <i>both</i> Adam Smith and Karl Marx told us) about CLASS…</span></span></p><p class="p20" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">… especially after 40 years of 'supply-side' scams transferred at least $10 trillions from the U.S. middle class into the open maws of a top 0.001% that never, ever invested any substantial amount of it into the promised productive uses. A lordly aristocracy whose bloated <i>wealth disparities</i> are now surpassing French Revolution levels! </span></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Fully aware that those chickens may come to roost, the rightist mystical-obsession is with CYCLICAL HISTORY. Raving notions of <i>fore-ordained generational cycles</i> like those clutched by Nazis, Confederates and other romantics... </span></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">...and that now propel a desperate fantasy called <i>prepper-ism</i>, as many of the uber-rich build luxury bunker-redoubts and mountain refuges to ride out a coming "Event," or fall of civilization. As if we spurned survivors - especially the nerds who know cyber, bio, nano, and nuclear stuff - won't trivially know where to find those who betrayed and abandoned us.</span></span></p><p class="p20" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p20" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== A Quasi-Religious Cult to Justify Neo-Feudalism ==</b></span></p><p class="p20" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Among the core scriptures of this cyclic-history mysticism that obsesses conservatives, there is a tome called <a href="https://amzn.to/3M9YKZh" target="_blank">The Fourth Turning</a>, a pile of jibbering hogwash by authors Strauss & Howe, whose apophenia/pareidolia incantations are so easily disproved that obsessives can only double down, obsessively - and religiously - averting their gaze from any doubts. (I know plenty of these guys - and <i>not one will wager</i> over the testable falsifiability of these cult 'historical cycle' cult assertions.)</span></span></p><p class="p20" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>That</i> is the undercurrent, beneath all this 'generational shift' blather. A desperate drive to distract from real problems and divides. Or how foolish the sycophancy-lobotomized oligarchy truly is, for rejecting the great benefits they gained from the New Deal and the Great Society. Or their plunge back down the path that old Karl ordained. Dreaming of harems and consigning themselves to tumbrels.</span></span></p><p class="p20" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">But fine. Now here's that promised quotation from <a href="https://amzn.to/45jXlpz" target="_blank">The Aftermath</a>. Read it <i>both</i> for how right it is... and how there are other, unmentioned layers. </span></span></p><p class="p20" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p21" style="color: #383838; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s16" style="color: black; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: none; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"><i>"</i></span><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><i>The Baby Boomers... were a cohort of historically unprecedented size, whose basic need to be clothed, fed, housed and educated was a decades-long jobs creator and economy stimulator. And they were a cohort whose massive size and timing — not just in the immediate aftermath of World War II, but decades into a postindustrial era of growth, government investment and a strong middle class — meant cultural and economic dominance for much of their lives. As teenagers, boomers saw their desires met by marketers who had only just discovered that teenagers with few obligations and a little disposable cash were a huge potential consumer group. Now, as older adults and retirees with waning obligations and a lot of disposable cash, boomers continue to hold a significant chunk of American wealth and the consumer power that goes with it — and in turn, products and services for boomers have proliferated, a trend that will no doubt continue as they enter their sunset years. The government</i></span><span class="s17" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: none; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"><i> </i></span><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><i>adjusted, too, smoothing boomers’ entrance into the world with significant investments in infrastructure and education, and now smoothing their exit with significant entitlement expenditures."</i></span></span></p><p class="p20" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Statements and assertions that are true – in themselves – can also add up to distraction and bullshit.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== "Caesarism" - the latest treason ==</span></b></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a name="_Hlk147254387"><span face="Arial, sans-serif">Let's go past all the headlines and spume. The Mad Right’s <i>neo-feudalism fetish</i> is its only priority. All supposed “policies’ boil down to it, leading at last to this inevitable end state: </span></a><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background: repeat rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #121212;"><i>“For the last three years, parts of the American right have advocated a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/01/red-caesar-authoritarianism-republicans-extreme-right" target="_blank">theory called Caesarism</a> as an authoritarian solution to the claimed collapse of the US republic”</i> (With Peter Thiel among the major subsidizers of dismally microcephalic propagandizers, pushing the same cult incantations under a different name: <i>“<a href="https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2013/11/neo-reactionaries-drop-all-pretense-end.html" target="_blank">neo-monarchy</a>.”</i>) Yeah, sure, guys. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><o:p style="background-color: white;"> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Dig it. After 6000 years of wretchedly stupid misrule by inheritance-brat kings and lords, we <i>broke</i> from that feudal Divine Right romantic twaddle. And in so doing, we have accomplished vastly more - in every conceivable category - during the last 250 years of gradually improving constitutionalism – and especially during the post- Rooseveltean era – than <i>all</i> other human cultures… <i>combined</i>. And I include the neolithic. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><o:p style="background-color: white;"> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Yes, I mean combined. Put up wager stakes. Anything that is consensus Good and factually verifiable. Like the percentage of human beings who have been able to raise healthy children in conditions of light and peace. Or science. Or production, economics or entrepreneurship. Or far-sighted literature. Or a burgeoning ecological movement that just might save our children's world... </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">... or the thing that Adam Smith promoted, but that these hypocrites now openly hate -- <a href="https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2013/11/liberals-you-must-reclaim-adam-smith.html" target="_blank">flat-fair-creative <i>competition</i></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><o:p style="background-color: white;"> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Faced with a looming demographic collapse of U.S. conservatism (the mad Bush/Trumpian version) -– and the fact that <i>all</i> fact-using professions have turned against them -- these bozos surround themselves with lobotomizing flatterers who only prove my case! They have replaced politics - the high art of negotiating positive sum solutions to a wide variety of problems, ambitions and interests - with a tiresome litany of rationalizations toward one goal. A goal that is pathetically predictable, rooted in male reproduction reflexes…<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><o:p style="background-color: white;"> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">…that of restored feudal rule by inheritance brats, yearning to restore the practice of kingly harems. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><o:p style="background-color: white;"> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Oh, it’s an insane-masturbatory goal. One chased by incel yammerers. But sure, you guys will try, and if 2024 elections aren’t going your way, you will unleash on us waves of McVeighs. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><o:p style="background-color: white;"> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #121212; font-family: arial;">(Prediction: the caesarites won’t let the ’24 election be about Donald Trump. Especially if he's either self-torching or going full brownshirt. Desperate, the oligarchs will find some way to push their beloved asset aside, either gently or (preferably) in some "Howard Beale Option" designed to incite the base. Think not? Then give me odds? 1:3 it’ll be Nikki Haley or one of her clones. And God bless the US Secret Service.)<span style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><o:p style="background-color: white;"> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><o:p style="background-color: white;"><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><o:p style="background-color: white;"><b>== A Canticle for Rich Idiots ==</b></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><o:p style="background-color: white;"><br /></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white;">And so, let's explore the logical path they have chosen. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #121212; font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">Hey, feudalist cultists, have you considered </span></span><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(18, 18, 18); color: #121212; font-family: arial;">what-if </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-family: arial;">- just maybe - we (especially all the nerds you despise) are far more <i>ready</i> than you think? Exactly how do you believe this is gonna go, when you are waging war vs. <i>all</i> fact-using professions? From science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror? </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white;">Open war against the nerds who know cyber, bio, nuclear, chemistry and all the rest? Those who have the exact location and every feature of every single Prepper compound?</span><o:p style="background-color: #fff4f2;"></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat rgb(255, 244, 242); color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span><span face="Arial, sans-serif" style="background: repeat white;">I know some of the suckers falling for this prepper/aristocracy stuff. They used to be science fiction fans. Today, they think any "Event" will follow a course portrayed in one of the classics - Walter Miller's</span></span><span style="background-color: white;"> </span><a href="https://amzn.to/49Ilr0s" style="background-color: white;" target="_blank">A Canticle for Leibowitz</a><span style="background-color: white;">. </span><span style="background-color: white;"> Alas, they put too much </span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">masturbatory </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial;">faith in ego-pleasing sci fi. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;">Oh, it’s a great novel, written in a bygone age. But is it an accurate model of some post-Event future, when survivors will throw themselves at the feet of prepper lords, emerging from sanctums and bunkers? When the inevitable blame </span><span style="background-color: white;">backlash gets turned <i>against all nerds?</i></span><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Are you guys really so sure the blame won't fall upon those 'lords,' whose active or passive sabotage undermined our institutions of resilience?</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat white; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;">Want a model for what'll</span><span style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"> </span><i style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;">actually happen</i><span style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;">, if those would-be caesars do trigger an "Event?"</span></span></p><span color="rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)" style="border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; font-variant-ligatures: normal; line-height: inherit; margin: var(--artdeco-reset-base-margin-zero); orphans: 2; outline: var(--artdeco-reset-base-outline-zero); padding: var(--artdeco-reset-base-padding-zero); text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline); widows: 2;"><br style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: inherit;" /></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="white-space-pre"><span color="rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9)" style="border: var(--artdeco-reset-base-border-zero); box-sizing: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: normal; line-height: inherit; margin: var(--artdeco-reset-base-margin-zero); orphans: 2; outline: var(--artdeco-reset-base-outline-zero); padding: var(--artdeco-reset-base-padding-zero); text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; vertical-align: var(--artdeco-reset-base-vertical-align-baseline); widows: 2;">Paris, 1789. </span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"></p><div style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== They know no history. And hence no future ==</b></span></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat white; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat white; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Okay, just one more thing.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat rgb(255, 244, 242); color: #121212; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Yeah, bad – tho sometimes well-written – science fiction <i>has</i> played a role in forming caesarism. Foremost among those pushing this rejection of the American Experiment? Take Orson Scott Card – a writer of unquestionable persuasive genius and psychological manipulativeness. Scott spent his entire career relentlessly inveighing that democracy is futile and no institution can be trusted. Certainly, the very notion of self-rule via negotiated, positive-sum politics, thrashed out openly by several hundred million <i>citizens,</i> is ridiculed and dismissed at every turn.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Instead, we all should throw ourselves at the feet of some super-uber-demigod-Caesar, hoping (in fact praying) that he’ll be as nice as Ender Wiggin. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Only he should also have an all-chastising whip – and maybe cattle cars and smokestacks – to back up his unquestioned (unquestionable) wisdom. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">While this lesson is pushed in all Card tales, including the dangerously misunderstood </span><a href="https://amzn.to/40FW1fS" style="font-family: arial;" target="_blank">Ender's Game</a><span style="font-family: arial;">, the anti-democracy propaganda gets <i>explicit</i> in Card’s </span><a href="https://amzn.to/46jfwvZ" style="font-family: arial;" target="_blank">EMPIRE</a><span style="font-family: arial;">, the author's wish fantasy novel that is clutched and extolled as a keystone document of this </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/01/red-caesar-authoritarianism-republicans-extreme-right" style="font-family: arial;" target="_blank">Caesarist/neo-monarchist ‘movement’</a><span style="font-family: arial;"> that bodes for the rest of us…</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">... nothing but pain. I promise though. If that happens, you fellows will share in it.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="color: #0f1419; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com65tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-24440612109104981262024-01-26T14:49:00.000-08:002024-01-26T16:04:54.311-08:00Yet more Space News! And reasons for us to have some confidence.<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">There are <a href="https://futurecrunch.com/goodnews2023/" target="_blank">so many reasons</a> why we ought to refuse and reject the propaganda-against-confidence, out there. A better-than-expected economy? Dropping crime rates? A working vaccine against malaria and looming extinction for both the Guinea worm and polio? Uneven but steady, incremental steps toward justice... and even progress toward saving the planet! </span></p><p><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Please look at these! </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://www.abundance360.com/">https://www.abundance360.com/</a> and </span><a href="https://futurecrunch.com/goodnews2023/" style="color: #954f72; font-family: arial;">https://futurecrunch.com/goodnews2023/</a></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">But above all, <i>incredible science!</i> So today let's deal with the science that's <i>actually</i> above it all. In space!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== Let's live up to Ingenuity ==</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">The little <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/nasas-little-helicopter-mars-logged-last-flight-rcna135757" target="_blank">Mars helicopter</a> that <i>could. </i>It's mission is now officially over, due to damaged blades<i>. </i>This may not be the <i>very</i> last hurrah. But still... hurrah little guy.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Meanwhile <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68091389?fbclid=IwAR3kJnOcXx_FyBfec1tUQGOr-7XApyCA5AOopba5b3piMyRM5yyicRKEMtc" target="_blank">Japan's SLIM luna</a><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68091389?fbclid=IwAR3kJnOcXx_FyBfec1tUQGOr-7XApyCA5AOopba5b3piMyRM5yyicRKEMtc" target="_blank">r lander bots</a> - a mostly successful ensemble! Though one little pike on top coulda prevented the showoff headstand.... Some of the design concepts emerged from studies funded by NASA's Innovative & Advanced Concepts program - (NIAC).</span></span></p><p><b style="font-family: Arial; font-size: large;">== Looking out there ==</b></p><p class="p15" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span class="s1">The Webb Telescope <a href="https://www.ign.com/articles/webb-telescope-finds-signs-of-life-in-atmosphere-of-distant-ocean-world" target="_blank">took spectra as a sub-Neptune planet</a> passed in front of its star, letting Webb </span>detect the presence of methane and carbon dioxide in the exoplanet atmosphere, which supported the theory that K2-18 b could indeed be a Hycean (highly oceanic) world… plus evidence of the rare molecule dimethyl sulfide, which might be a strong indicator for the presence of life. On Earth, dimethyl sulfide is created solely as a byproduct of life, most commonly by marine bacteria and phytoplankton.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvqboQmz1PsHiiMExRC60PFb5r-cI9wTKMZnwPYsVq1fBwEqZN_XFl2F37rBT5VzgOnePywwyozjzEr0JDWeRQiwyTGrv_a9ekEU9je17Rz0bh9EnfuENEX8UdDArf3foqQJqNYiwWEa82qEW5RdVdetQXOMRC62I8ynntm9wVR5lJH_epBQ/s709/jwst.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="396" data-original-width="709" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvqboQmz1PsHiiMExRC60PFb5r-cI9wTKMZnwPYsVq1fBwEqZN_XFl2F37rBT5VzgOnePywwyozjzEr0JDWeRQiwyTGrv_a9ekEU9je17Rz0bh9EnfuENEX8UdDArf3foqQJqNYiwWEa82qEW5RdVdetQXOMRC62I8ynntm9wVR5lJH_epBQ/s320/jwst.png" width="320" /></a></span></div><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">An infant star! A new image from NASA's James Webb Space Telescope has <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/09/16/1199995083/nasa-star-image-james-webb-telescope" target="_blank">captured what Earth's sun may have looked like </a>when it was only a few tens of thousands of years old. Enhanced images of this newborns are gorgeous!</span></p><div><p class="p17" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s1">Also from Webb: </span>carbon, an essential component of life on Earth,<a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/09/22/1201071390/carbon-jupiter-moon-europa" target="_blank"> is also present within Europa</a>, Jupiter's ice-covered moon that's believed to hold huge oceans of liquid salt water beneath its icy surface.</span></p><p class="p17" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p17" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The riches pouring from the Webb are amazing: a cornucopia! <span class="Apple-converted-space"> For example, </span>Tellurium, an element rarer than platinum on Earth, was just<a href="https://www.space.com/james-webb-space-telescope-tellurium-kilonova" target="_blank"> found in the aftermath of a violent cosmic kilonova</a> 1 billion light-years away, thanks to Webb. </span></p><p class="p17" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p17" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span>See the James Webb Space Telescopes's </span><a href="https://badastronomy.substack.com/p/jwsts-view-of-the-magnificently-dusty" target="_blank">views of galaxy M51</a><span>. And again wow. YOU are a member of a civilization that does this sort of thing. Yet you </span><i>dare</i><span> to wallow in gloom and killed confidence? Look at this! <i>You</i> helped pay for the wonder, the competence, the wisdom. Do more.</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">LIGO my ego! Humanity’s new gravity wave detectors, led by LIGO, are so spectacularly precise that <a href="https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/light-gravitational-waves-arrive/" target="_blank">they could parse the tiny difference of arrival time</a> between the g-waves emitted by a neutron star collision 130 million light years away and the subsequent (by just a 2.7 second delay!) arrival of gamma rays then visible light from the same event. Truly wonderful stuff. And humbling that I cannot operate at that plane! </span></p></div><p><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>== Space travel & colonization ==</b></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Just getting big rockets to push more stuff out of the Earth’s grip will <i>not</i> be enough for Mars colonization. Other absolutely necessary ingredients will include ISRU facilities robotically utilizing local water to make fuel and air and drinkables, with full tanks before any human departs Earth-Luna space. Also vastly better recycling. And solutions to zero-g and radiation health dangers. And – above all – nuclear interplanetary rockets for shorter transit times.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Speaking of which… this <a href="https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/11/nearterm-10x-aerogel-fission-fragment-rocket-will-lead-to-interstellar-capability.html" target="_blank">Fission Fragment Rocket Design</a> is one of our projects at NASA's Innovative & Advanced Concepts program - (NIAC).</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p17" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The one – and only one – verified-likely “lunar resource’ – other than the hot air of Artemis-booster blowhards – is a few somewhat-verified deposits of water-ice in some permanently shaded polar crater areas. Alas, <a href="https://physicsworld.com/a/estimates-of-water-ice-on-the-moon-get-a-dramatic-downgrade/ " target="_blank">even that attractive bonanza seems to be downgraded</a>. “Deposits of nearly pure ice tens to hundreds of meters thick are no longer expected” according to <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>new <a href="https://physicsworld.com/a/estimates-of-water-ice-on-the-moon-get-a-dramatic-downgrade/ " target="_blank">research in Physics World</a>. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>“The outlook for would-be lunar water prospectors isn’t entirely negative, though. “We now have more accurate maps for where the largest concentrations of ice can be expected on the Moon.”</span></p><p class="p18" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p17" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">There might also (maybe) be debris fields of collectable iron bits from past meteorites. And if someone develops a <i>very</i> efficient solar smelter, maybe a couple other metals. Someday. But if you want water out there in space… and just about anything else… lift your gaze! <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p17" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p17" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">NASA and Japan and the EU should explore the riches of <i>asteroids</i> and leave that <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>dusty plain of poison lunar dust – to the kiddies, tourists and Apollo-wannabes.</span></p><p class="p17" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p17" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Okay… time to cue the insipid <i>Helium Three cult!</i> Over to you guys.</span></p><p class="p17" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>== Look up! But with judgement & skepticism? ==</b></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p class="p21" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">This <a href="https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/jwst-confirms-worsens-hubble-tension/?fbclid=IwAR12iJsBMoVM9yzTRemM0LrnUyMnx_daGMLW7-hMsdmd4BJgUTUSFurdxkI" target="_blank">BigThink photo-essay</a> by Ethan Siegel does a terrific job illustrating the 'distance ladder' method for measuring the 'Hubble Constant' rate of expansion of the universe, now double checked by the Webb Telescope. This method's metric differs from one got from the microwave background, a conundrum! one you'll understand much better from this excellent piece of sci-journalism.</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span class="s7"><a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-think-an-earth-like-planet-may-be-hiding-in-our-solar-system" target="_blank">Failure to find a giant ‘planet X' way out there</a>, perturbing into the inner solar system, has led to models suggesting a smaller one, orbiting closer in. This </span><span>world, frozen and dark, would be no greater than 3 times the mass of Earth, and orbiting at high inclination no farther than 500 </span><span class="s5" style="text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration: underline;">astronomical units</span><span> from the Sun. Which happens also to be the boundary of the Sun’s gravity-lens zone described in <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/existence.html" target="_blank">Existence</a>. Hence such a world might (maybe) become an incredible base for making a myriad super telescopes.</span></span></p><p class="p14" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span class="s3" style="text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration: underline;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p7" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Speaking of the outer system… the New Horizons Science Team hopes to use the spacecraft <a href="http://pluto.jhuapl.edu/News-Center/Science-Perspectives.php?page=20230808" target="_blank">to precisely measure the darkness of space itself</a>. Since it's so dark where New Horizons is – billions of miles beyond the sunlit dust of the inner solar system.</span></p><p class="p8" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p7" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">A new study reports <a href="https://apple.news/A5QZe3x1JTSSW7L9ioZFHoQ" target="_blank">‘conclusive evidence’ for the breakdown of standard gravity</a> in the low acceleration limit from analysis of the orbital motions of long-period, widely separated, binary stars. If verified, this might – maybe – confirm a conjecture of <span class="s8"> the late physicist Jacob Bekenstein</span>.<span class="s1"> </span> </span></p><p class="p22" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span class="s3" style="text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration: underline;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span class="s1">A new paper explores a concept closely related to my novel <a href="http://youtu.be/wzr-DSDMkJM" target="_blank">Existence</a>. “</span><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.08915" target="_blank">Capture of Interstellar Objects in Near Earth Orbit</a>.” Are many near Earth Objects (e.g. close passing asteroids) actually interstellar arrivals (Like ‘Oumuamua) that Jupiter captured into the solar system? <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>I show such a trajectory-event happening (with a little assist from the object itself!) in that epic tale!</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>== Black Hole ‘Eaters’ inside the sun? Or the Earth? ==</b></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">My friend and colleague John Cramer was working on the latest of his wonderful “Alternate View” columns for ANALOG, this time regarding a new paper out there… “<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.07647" target="_blank">Is there a black hole in the center of the Sun?</a>” <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Here’s an excerpt from that article’s abstract: <i>“There is probably <u>not</u> a black hole in the center of the sun. Despite this detail, our goal in this work to convince the reader that this question is interesting and that work studying stars with central black holes is well motivated. If primordial black holes exist then they may exist in sufficiently large numbers to explain the dark matter in the universe. While primordial black holes may form at almost any mass, the asteroid-mass window between 10−16−10−10 M<span class="s10" style="font-family: "Cambria Math"; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">⊙</span> remains a viable dark matter candidate and these black holes could be captured by stars upon formation. Such a star, partially powered by accretion luminosity from a microscopic black hole in its core, has been called a `Hawking star.'”</i></span></p><p class="p9" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p14" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span>Phew!</span> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><span>John wrote for my opinion, given that my novel </span><a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/earth.html" target="_blank">Earth</a><span> is pertinent.</span> <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><span>Here’s some of my response: </span> </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i><span style="font-size: medium;">John, your Analog columns are a principal reason to stay subscribed! And this is a fascinating topic! And yes, in Earth the very diverse and eclectic plot is centrally propelled by one protagonist having accidentally dropped his lab-made singularity into the planet. Nearly all physicists are sure it will dissipate... he's not so sure and leads a secret effort to build gravity resonators to 'ping' the planetary interior… and he does find it... and realizes it IS dissipating... but there's another one down there. A more deadly variety of singularity that's been growing since 1908. </span></i></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i></i><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i><span style="font-size: medium;">Moreover, his ping triggers something unexpected. His surface resonator and the mystery singularity serve as 'mirrors' that excite stimulated, coherent radiation from the energy-rich core and mantle in between. In other words… a gravity laser! Or gazer. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>The potential range of beneficial uses - like spaceflight or saving the world from getting eaten from within - fall aside as it is used by various groups as a weapon. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Till someone notices that all these beams are also doing very strange things to the Earth's mantle... So sure, Earth is relevant to the topic. (It also came in 2nd for a Hugo.)</span></i></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i></i><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i><span style="font-size: medium;">As for one inside the sun - an intriguing idea that demands compatibility with fundamental observations. </span></i></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i></i><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i><span style="font-size: medium;">Amid billions of observed stars, we are witnessing no effects of runaway eating of dense stellar interiors, which ought to cause a rather peculiar kind of supernova in its final stages. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>(This is also an answer to the question of whether super-high-energy cosmic rays - vastly more powerful than any produced by the LHC - could make dangerous black holes.) Hence, if a solar core primordial BH does not do runaway eating, not even when an elderly star shrinks to a super-dense white dwarf or neutron star, then what prevents that?And if growth doesn't happen, they why won't it shrink?</span></i></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i></i><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><i><span style="font-size: medium;">Of course, using asteroid size BH to explain Dark Matter is a version of the MACHO theory. If there's that many of them, it certainly could help explain the Fermi Paradox! <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Making interstellar travel pretty damn hard because of the Minefield Problem. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>The problem with this is that they oughta interact with Jupiter pretty often. And wouldn't some get captured into solar orbit? <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>They'd have to all be below a certain mass not to be noticed.</span></i></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i></i><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Okay, you can see why I saved that part of my conversation with John Cramer to share with you <i>last.</i></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Keep looking up... and continue fighting those who would sabotage your can-do spirit and confidence!</span></p><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com222tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-13096221020375826982024-01-20T11:55:00.000-08:002024-01-20T14:25:48.034-08:00Again, my rant demand for wagers over proven facts. Watch as the he-men flee!<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>I remain awed by some Republicans - those quasi-sapient enough to dislike “all-7-deadly-sins” Trump, while claiming to love science and freedom – and yet who still clutch mantras of GOP loyalty. Even purported </span><i>libertarians -</i><span> who know that Republican policies and narratives are anti-freedom in all ways - recite incantations like </span><i>‘liberals are worse!’</i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">(Libertarian hypocrisy is galling, since Dems score better on everything ‘freedom lovers’ should want, from debt and deficits, abortion rights and drug law reform to individual sexual choice, tort and contract law, separation of church/state and anything having to do with personal accountability. Plus this: red-run states (except Utah) average<i> higher rates of every turpitude</i> (e.g. gambling, murder, rape, STDs...) and parasitize budget support from blue America. Alas, none of that matters, apparently - only <i>tax cuts for the nobility</i>. That is the one and <i>only</i> determining issue, ever since the Party of Feudalism took over most libertarian institutions.)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">We live in a complex era and ‘<a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/ostrichpolitics.html" target="_blank">ostriches</a>’ (those residually smart but in-denial Republicans and Libertarians) <i>use</i> modern complexity to scamper from one head-hole to the next, reciting cancellation incantations. For example, howling about “Hansen’s errors in the 90s!” in order to evade facing the current tsunami of proofs that a <i>looming climate crisis</i> threatens the very lives of our children.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">(And yes, <i>that one issue alone</i> should be enough to break the spell! So the distraction incantations become frantic.)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== Don't give up on your 'ostrich' neighbors! ==</b></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>I found one way past this tactic</b> of frantic birds scurrying from one echo-hole to the next. Confront your semi-sapient ostrich with a <i>list</i> of <i>distilled</i> challenges, and <i>stay focused on a few, tenaciously!</i> Do <i>not</i> allow them to change the subject from that small set of fact-checkable assertions. And yes, here is where Brin repeats his challenge <i>ad nauseam. </i>It helps to demand <i>wagers</i>! Or else some other form of accountability for what’s factually and provably true.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">(Here's a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBEH8appK-Q" target="_blank">video</a> by a savvy young man using <i>wagers</i> to gradually pry his own mom away from QAnon addiction.) </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">For example, if any ONE of the following <i>is true</i>, then today’s GOP is an insane criminal enterprise. If ALL are true (and they all are) then abetting that gang of mephistophelians is – in itself – <i>treason</i> to the only civilization that ever offered humanity a sliver of hope and progress. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">HERE’S THAT LIST and I will accept wagers - with attorney-</span><span style="font-family: arial;">escrowed $$$ stakes -</span><span style="font-family: arial;">over any of them:</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* Grand juries across the United States (mostly white retirees, mostly in red-run states) have <i>indicted</i> almost a <i>hundred</i> times as many top Repubs as Dems! And I mean that: almost one <i>hundred</i> times as many! With other juries delivering correlated convictions. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Now, in theory that fact </span><span style="font-family: arial;">could</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> result from some </span><i style="font-family: arial;">grand conspiracy</i><span style="font-family: arial;"> involving tens of thousands of Americans - from FBI agents to random citizens - conniving perfectly, without a single actual trace! That is, I suppose it could happen in a Hollywood thriller. Though shouldn't that blithe scenario demand a pretty darn steep burden of proof? Proof that is </span><span style="font-family: arial;">nonexistent. And I mean</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> 100% nonexistent.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>Or else, consider a simpler explanation: </b>that this gusher of indicted/convicted felonies may result from subornation of the once-great party of Lincoln, Teddy R., Ike and Goldwater into a 'swamp' of systematic criminality. (Side bet: which party has >10x the rate of high officials nailed for child predation?)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* Pick any <i>random</i> 10 of Trump's 150,000 registered lies for us to wager-over. Or <i>any</i> non-vapor ‘evidence’ of any election 'steal.' Or name ONE fact-centered profession that’s NOT hated-on by Fox? (I can name one, but can you?)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* Now those <i>hated fact professions</i> include <i>the FBI!</i> Plus all the intel agencies and the <i>US military officer corps.</i> All of them used to be, not long ago, admired by all US conservatives! Now? <i>Funny how that enemies list just happens to include all the Americans who are most hated by Vlad Putin, blaming them for the fall of his beloved USSR? </i>Shouldn't that perfect overlap cause some concern?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>Wager! Let's ask</i> those heroes (the FBI/intel/military officers who won the Cold War & War on Terror, but who are now hated nightly on Fox) to weigh in on fact-related matters! Like the climate crisis, or January 6, or Russian influence in the GOP… or whether Vlad's “ex” commissar cronies in Moscow - and a slightly relabeled KGB - ever actually changed their stripes? </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">No, I mean it. Let’s ask them! Afraid that experiment might contradict what you suckle, nightly, from the Fox teat?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* Let's go together and <i>ask</i> a panel of those fact folks to compare Hunter Biden's <i>whole life</i> – assuming the <i>worst!</i> - vs. any random <i>week</i> of the Trump boys. Let's tally NDAs & hush payments! How about we join forces to demand <u>all</u> records from <u>both</u> families! </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Can we agree - across party lines - to a national campaign to cancel all the NDAs, publish all the business records and let the chips fall where they may? No? Then how about at least solid metrics of who 'drained the swamp?' When do K Street lobbying firms to best? During Dem or GOP administrations?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* <i>Come to sea with me and a pH meter!</i> Personally and <i>together and in person. Then</i> let’s take our readings to a <i>randomly chosen</i> community college chemistry instructor for clear interpretation. Let’s <i>bet right now</i> whether acidification is killing the oceans that our children will need! And it can ONLY be caused by human CO2 pollution.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> Are you man enough to put up wager stakes? Or even more manly… to start caring?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8M9qNOfmgl1agRyiwUqfFQbpMB_ly8EL159NGrW8nQbu6nDjPnZnE6c649xuezq5JFO6HCmZoz-hwMtgc_wXddgl2BCOVih7fMUn6xQHYJD1qSYXBuG4fo4WQ2tQWyyXGLMUhmhM2OyZFXIng5dJ0q1IgmyYKugOzEMprYIbIb4hVtj38mw/s936/DEMAND-WAGERS.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="936" data-original-width="702" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8M9qNOfmgl1agRyiwUqfFQbpMB_ly8EL159NGrW8nQbu6nDjPnZnE6c649xuezq5JFO6HCmZoz-hwMtgc_wXddgl2BCOVih7fMUn6xQHYJD1qSYXBuG4fo4WQ2tQWyyXGLMUhmhM2OyZFXIng5dJ0q1IgmyYKugOzEMprYIbIb4hVtj38mw/s320/DEMAND-WAGERS.png" width="240" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* Let’s check Fox 'campus indoctrination' rants. Come with me in person to the nearest research university and knock on 20 RANDOM doors! </span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Let’s BET NOW whether 18 or 19 of those 20 doors lead to smart & savvy grownups, doing brilliant work, who shrug off the noisy, noisome ‘woke-ist’ campus bullies, as gnat-like, abrasive, silly nuisances? </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">No other factor did more to 'make America great' than vibrant U.S. leadership in science. So why does MAGA screech hate at universities, and scientists especially? <i>(I can tell you why.)</i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i><br /></i></span><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* Compare DEATH rates of those who took - or refused - vaccines! Side question: Were ANY Americans as beloved by the nation, ever, as FDR was and later <i>Jonas Salk?<o:p></o:p></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* Can we bet which party is ALWAYS more fiscally responsible regarding debt and deficits? And yes, I mean always! (In fact, national Republican administrations are <i>always</i> spendthrift wastrels, sending deficits skyrocketing, while Democratic ones are <i>always</i> fiscally responsible. Please rush to escrow those wager stakes. Big ones.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">"Are you squirming now?" (Ask your MAGA.) "How about, as a grownup, you <i>live</i> with the death of a favorite meme cliché!"<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* I mentioned this before, but it really hits home! Let's put up real stakes whether Red-run States (except Utah) average higher in <i>every class of turpitude</i>! From gambling, addiction, <a href="https://www.politico.com/blogs/on-congress/2009/01/stds-higher-in-red-states-015729" target="_blank">STDs</a>, domestic violence and <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/01/27/murder-rate-high-trump-republican-states" target="_blank">murder</a> to teen sex, divorce and net tax parasitism on the rest of the nation. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* Throw in the failure of a single Rightist “supply side economics” prediction ever, ever to come true. Did I say <i>ever? </i>The sole tangible outcome of that cult has been rocketing wealth disparities favoring inheritance brats – now passing French Revolution levels - along with the deliberate war on science and the planet. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== Am I beating a dead horse? ==</b></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Of course, it’s futile to demand wagers from blowhard cowards, desperately repeating reassuring mantras and masturbatory incantations. No MAGA/Putinist <i>ever</i> shows manly guts to back up their blab, the way that our WWII grampas would've, with cash stakes slapped on the bar and an honest “let’s find out!”</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Instead, alas, the blowhards always flee, amid the ruins of their macho.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">So why do I recommend the tactic? </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>Because</b> it is this very <i>assertiveness</i> of confident men and women that will cause the New Confederates to back down... especially those unhappy, uncomfortable ones with actual minds, who <i>know</i> that something has gone terribly wrong with their 'movement.' Those who cover their ears and eyes, or suckle from the glass bosom of Fox etc., murmuring <i>"I know my party's gone insane, but... but... but DEMOCRATS ARE WORSE! Yeah, that's the ticket..."</i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">It's these borderline cases who are worth the effort. And I can prove that.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Way back during Watergate, I saw the shift happen, when a critical mass of such folks - ostrich Republicans in refusal to recognize criminality - finally lifted their heads out of holes of denial, shook off the cobwebs and admitted: </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: medium;">"I care more about my children, the future, science, truth, America and the world than about an undead were-elephant that badly needs a stake through its heart...</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">".... so that a decent, loyal, factual and American conservatism* can be reborn from the ashes of this monster." </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">When that happens (and I have faith in my neighbors!) I will be among those who step up, congratulate them, welcome that phoenix back home... and then get back to negotiating with actual adults about our richly varied course into the future.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">======</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;">* Do you know the State of Arizona now draws 7.3% of its electricity from the spinning in Barry Goldwater's grave?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: x-small;">Well, then, maybe if I hum a few bars....</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com220tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-82534549074672607112024-01-13T16:04:00.000-08:002024-01-15T14:46:01.737-08:00News from SPAAAAACE! Oh, and Fermi Paradox & Comets & Uplift!<p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>Some of you are crazy about </span><i>space colonization <u>now</u>!</i><span> I can dig it; it’s always been a dream for me, as well. Still, elsewhere I talk about the harm this mindset may be wreaking, upon the chances that our grandchildren may actually do it well! </span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>For example the “</span><a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis/" target="_blank">Artemis Program</a><span>” aims to repeat a lunar footprint stunt that NASA accomplished 50+ years ago, on a useless sandbox of poison dust. Sure it was a proud feat, especially with 1960s tech and it set a new symbolic benchmark for what humans are capable-of! But we should suck space budgets dry to check a few symbolic milestones, when the same funding could get us started with asteroid mining, where the <i>actual</i><b> </b>riches are?</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I say leave the 'bar-moonzvah' - ('today I am a man!!') - symbolism stuff to the Apoll-wannabe kiddies, while we raise our gaze much higher.</span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="color: #2d2d2d; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><span class="s1" style="color: black;"></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><span class="s1" style="color: black;"><a href="https://amzn.to/48vL3gk" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1500" data-original-width="987" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtqod6AH8QLkzs3tmH9z0AAAe_wtmSPfQ1Vb-jpwQBMf8AvFsaWq-uxX9-pyAJj5CEUIAPM3J5VA3_mYYUGScO039Ji6xmXKd0uj13-hDPIftvaWJdqd3OMp5h0k8ZWzx_XAn8qnGuYAprEueesdUGYikYampnQrzt0bal1OuKRzggFyGKBw/s320/8184LWNc+TL._SL1500_.jpg" width="211" /></a></span></span></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><span class="s1" style="color: black;">Now comes a book by </span>Kelly and Zach Weinersmith, creators of one of the best online series of one page, science friendly comix – <i><a href="https://www.smbc-comics.com/" target="_blank">SMBC - Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal</a>.</i> Their earlier book - <i><a href="https://amzn.to/3OpN99B" target="_blank">Soonish: The Emerging Technologies that'll Improve and/or Ruin Everything</a> -</i> was very incisive! </span><span>Now they have </span><i>“<a href="https://amzn.to/3RZuC4B" target="_blank">A City on Mars: </a></i><a href="https://amzn.to/3RZuC4B" target="_blank">Can We Settle Space, Should We Settle Space, and Have We Really Thought This Through?</a><span>”</span> </span><p></p><p class="p3" style="color: #2d2d2d; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Hey!</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">I am not pissing on dreams here. I craft and peddle dreams for a living... and some come true! But this is gonna take some time. And lots and lots of homework, first.</span></span></p><p class="p6" style="color: #2d2d2d; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p6" style="color: #2d2d2d; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== Wonderful 'casts online about this wonderful cosmos ==</b></span></p><p class="p6" style="color: #2d2d2d; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p7" style="color: #262d35; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">As a former solar astronomer… (well, I worked for them 3 summers, at Caltech)… and as author of <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/sundiver.html" target="_blank">Sundiver</a>, I highly recommend this gorgeous <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6EbuAEagQj4" target="_blank">episode of Astrum</a>, giving breathtaking views of our star across the spectrum.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>By all means, be inspired thereupon to get the new, upgraded and re-covered edition of <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/sundiver.html" target="_blank">Sundiver</a>! And yes, it’s marvelous to be a member of such a civilization! </span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p10" style="color: #121212; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s4" style="color: #2b2b2b;">I often recommend the series of very tight and scientifically grounded speculation <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@isaacarthurSFIA" target="_blank">podcasts by Isaac Arthur</a>. And I’ll tout especially his latest episode about <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eqc_XM4I-jo" target="_blank">Comet Mining</a>. After much important background about comets as a rich source of vast amounts of ice for fuel, water and air (far more than the pittance at the lunar poles), he gets into the good stuff. </span>At <span class="s5" style="color: #0433ff; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration: underline;">9:30</span> into this episode Isaac describes the dust-crust model of comets, the current, well-accepted model that I originated in my 1981 doctoral dissertation... and portrayed -with Gregory Benford- in <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/heartofthecomet.html" target="_blank">Heart of the Comet</a>. </span></p><p class="p10" style="color: #121212; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p10" style="color: #121212; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Later, Isaac discusses how comets may also be key to leapfrogging interstellar colonization via the Oort Cloud – another concept Greg and I introduced in that novel. And his tribute to my friend John Lewis’s <a href="https://amzn.to/3TmzWBy" target="_blank">Mining the Sky: Untold Riches from Asteroids</a> was moving.</span></p><p class="p10" style="color: #121212; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p10" style="color: #121212; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Oh, while we're at it, Isaac just posted a couple of even more lucid and <i>comprehensive</i> fact+speculation 'casts. One does a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZlhJsEJYXw" target="_blank">grand tour of concepts</a> regarding the ill-named <b>Fermi Paradox</b>. (In my 1983 formal paper on the topic - in many ways the first one ever - I coined the much better term<a href="http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu//full/1983QJRAS..24..283B/0000283.000.html" target="_blank"> 'The Great Silence.'</a>)</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Even more pertinent... at least to those inhabiting or visiting this space... is the recent extensive riff that Isaac Arthur did on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDb01ggyDfo" target="_blank">'The Ethics of Uplift.' </a>He is very thorough... and yet I wrote to him with nine more aspects he might want to look at, should he ever revisit the topic! Indeed, I will post some of these in comments, below.</span><p class="p10" style="color: #121212; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p10" style="color: #121212; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>More Space News!! ==</b></span></p><p class="p13" style="color: #2b2b2b; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">NASA spacecraft has high-speed asteroid encounter and finds a surprise. The <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/mission/lucy/" target="_blank">LUCY probe</a>, on its way to the Trojan asteroids at<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>a Jupiter Lagrange point, snapped this fascinating <a href="https://mashable.com/article/nasa-asteroid-lucy-images" target="_blank">picture</a> of another rubble asteroid that’s in fact<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>pair, barely kissing. Voyeurs!</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">The wonderful,11 year old Curiosity rover has just climbed past a region of small meteoroid craters to <a href="https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2023/08/msl-11-years/" target="_blank">resume its arduous climb up the slopes of Mount Sharp</a>.</span></p><p class="p14" style="color: #0433ff; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s3" style="text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration: underline;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">A terrific <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kiAkqIhcggA" target="_blank">interview</a> with my friend, Astronomer Royal Martin Rees. Excellent perspectives on Space, AI, and intelligence in the Universe.</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== And finally…where are they? ==</b></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Sixty years I’ve seen these UFO manias come and go, about twice per decade, with absolutely nothing ever to show for them, other than hearsay and fuzz and eagerness overwhelming almost nonexistent 'evidence.'</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Please, will you pause and ponder the plausible. If we did have ‘crashed ships’ what would happen? <b>We’d urgently ask tens of thousands of our <u>very best people</u> to study em, right?</b> </span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Well, I <u>know</u> many of the planet’s ‘best people’ - when it comes to qualifications to study such an important and fascinating thing as alien technology. And <u>none</u> of them were ever asked to ‘study an alien ship!’ They never moved with their families to a Manhattan Project urgency colony like 1943 Los Alamos. A very few flew in and out of Area 51 for a few years on secret stuff... but always 9-to-5 weekdays. </span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Above all, this cult <i>insults the best minds on the planet</i>, dismissing them as gutless lemming drones - clichés from a zillion dumb Hollywood flicks - instead of the free and rambunctiously individualist scientists and techies etc. that we taught them to be. </span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Even worse, this cult never explains how – with 10 million times as many active cameras on Earth now, than in the 1950s (and I do NOT exaggerate!) the ‘images’ keep getting ever <i>fuzzier</i>. </span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Look, I have studied the ‘alien’ all my life, not just in many sci fi thought experiments but in SETI and astrophysics. I would do a 180, if I ever saw anything but frantic/romantic jibber-jabber that <i>detracts</i> from our ability to seriously ponder our destiny in this vast universe.</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>If you have any actual, actual curiosity instead of cult fetishism, you might look at this:<span class="Apple-converted-space"> <a href="http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2021/07/whats-really-up-with-uaps-ufos.html" target="_blank"><b>What's really up with UAPs?</b></a> </span></span>Re-linking my recent <a href="https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2023/09/okay-this-time-ufo-mania-isnt-ebbing-so.html" target="_blank">essay</a> dissecting the “UFO Mania” from a dozen different angles that you’ve likely not seen elsewhere. </span></p><p class="p9" style="color: #0433ff; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p14" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Oh, side-note: while it is not <i>my</i> method to create glowing balls to flit around the atmosphere like a Cat Laser (and I could make every ‘tictac’ ever described), this <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2020/05/11/us-navy-laser-creates-plasma-ufos/?fbclid=IwAR3OrxRM9ai_cgVDxgYC8cc9dDNNuB4EqgfPAHKHqwWMiILuKXbtQs7yiiM&sh=503b009f1074" target="_blank">patent</a> by the US Air Force is also pretty cool, and likely could be more practical than my method.</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #121a21;">This is not harmless! Amid the stoopid but harmless UFO mania, a worse cult - METI - <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4434/10/2/55" target="_blank">aims to beam "Yoohoo to aliens!"</a> from taxpayer-funded facilities, breaking laws, moral codes & basic standards of decency. </span><span style="color: #121a21;"> See my <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/shouldsetitransmit.html" target="_blank">discussion</a>.</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Here’s one of my entertaining (I hope!) <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIXSKP0RAZI&t=51s">rants</a> about why it is immoral, illegal and just plain dumb to shout “Yoohoo!” into the cosmos. </span></p><p class="p14" style="color: #0433ff; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s3" style="text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration: underline;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And if you’d rather <i>read </i>a more cogently expressed argument, try this.</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">“<a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/shouldsetitransmit.html" target="_blank">Shouting At the Cosmos</a>” – about METI “messaging” to aliens.</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Did that bring you down? Hey, we are in 2024, fated to be at-minimum 'interesting times.' More likely a wild ride. We need <i>adults</i> right now, more than ever! Do NOT 'curb your enthusiasm!' But try also not to be a sucker.</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com108tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-89947091631823820622024-01-06T14:44:00.000-08:002024-01-06T14:50:14.754-08:00Are right and left in agreement to demoralize us?<p class="p27" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><span style="color: #2d2d2d;">First a note for book lovers: </span></span><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(32, 32, 32); color: #202020;">Across all of January, the <a href="https://amzn.to/3RMMMXd" target="_blank">Uplift Storm Trilogy</a> (<a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/brightnessreef.html" target="_blank">Brightness Reef</a>, <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/infinitysshore.html" target="_blank">Infinity's Shore</a> & <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/heavensreach.html" target="_blank">Heaven's Reach</a>) will be on e-book sale for $3.99. Alas apparently <i>not</i> on Kobo or Barnes & Noble. But <a href="https://amzn.to/3RMMMXd" target="_blank">a crazy good deal on Amazon</a>. Do you want adventure? With some science and great alien races? I got em here for you! And... <i>oh... what savings!</i></span></span></p><div><span style="color: #202020; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(32, 32, 32);"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="color: #202020; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(32, 32, 32);">Now...</span></span><p class="p27" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2d2d2d;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p27" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2d2d2d;"><b>== A fanatical cult keeps growing ==</b></span></span></p><p class="p27" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2d2d2d;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p27" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2d2d2d;">Christopher F. Rufo recently published "</span><a href="https://amzn.to/3ZFn1vy" target="_blank">America's Cultural Revolution: How the Radical Left Conquered Everything</a><span style="color: #2d2d2d;">," arguing that America has been quietly taken over by the ideological heirs of the 1960s radicals, "disguised in benign-sounding language like diversity, equity and inclusion"</span></span></p><p class="p20" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 15px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">There are <i>so</i> many refutations to this bald-faced blather, but the simplest start with:</span></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><span><b>Who has benefited?</b></span><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><span>Until the first “<a href="https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2010/02/a-primer-on-supply-side-vs-demand-side.html" target="_blank">Supply Side” bills</a> under Reagan, the U.S. middle and working classes shared in every advance in the American economy. Ever since those successive Supply Side ‘reforms’ - first Reagan's and those of Bush and then Trump - <i>working Americans have fallen ever-further behind the top 1%</i>, but especially the aristocrats and inheritance brats of the top<i> 0.01%.</i> W</span></span>ealth disparities skyrocketed to French Revolution levels. That is, until 2021 – when the Biden+Pelosi bills reversed those trends ... a little.</span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">So who ‘took over’ America, <i>judging by those who benefited?</i> Casino mafiosi, hedge lords, carbon princes, murder sheiks, “ex” commissars in the Kremlin and members of an incestuously parasitical CEO caste. </span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>The 'left’? Puh-lease. </span>Oh, sure, there <i>does </i>exist a far-left wing of ditzy, sanctimony-junky yammerers, bent on trashing their own side's credibility, delighting Foxites who nightly point and cry:<i> "See? ALL liberals are like THAT!!" </i>A lie, but effective...</span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">...at distracting from the disproportionate <i>outcomes</i> of each side. Like the nearly universal rule that the US economy does better during Democratic administrations.</span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">So let me reiterate that <i>not one</i> positive outcome prediction <i>ever</i> made by Supply Side promoters - re deficits or industrial investment or economic growth - ever came true. <i>Not… one… ever.</i> And I have had standing wager offers on the table for a decade.</span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">If any of the followers of Milton Friedman and that ilk had a sliver of dignity (or manhood) or fealty to scientific method, they would eagerly accept my offer of <i>wagers</i> over that devastating assertion. They would try to prove me wrong.</span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">But a cult is a cult! “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/11/trump-tax-cuts-2024/"><span class="s15" style="color: #0433ff;">Trump advisers plot aggressive new tax cuts for second White House term</span></a>.” </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Six thousand years of rule by inheritance brats and high level cheaters never accomplished (combined!) 1% as much as the FDR generation did, by raising up the working class into a prosperous <i>middle</i> class... plus using anti-trust etc to spur fair competition. <i>Adam Smith - who denounced aristocratic cheaters as the main enemies of fair competition - would today be a flaming Democrat.</i></span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: arial;"><i> </i> </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Mr. Rufo’s entire movement has been taken over and suborned by those casino mafiosi, hedge lords, carbon princes, murder sheiks and “ex” commissars who own the GOP. And who subsidize his yammers.</span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">== </span><span style="font-family: arial;"><span class="s11" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">How Elites Ate the Social Justice Movement</span> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">==</span></span></b></p><p class="p12" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px 0px 0px 36px;"><span class="s10" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p7" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">A somewhat less-wrong rightist screed is Fredrik deBoer’s book, “<a href="https://amzn.to/46Cao6I" target="_blank">How Elites Ate the Social Justice Movement</a>.” The assertion - in this case somewhat defensible - is that liberal movements seem to be driven nowadays more by <i>sanctimony</i> than by achieving actual, pragmatic outcomes for the poor, or oppressed, or for the Earth. Or for posterity.</span></span></p><p class="p7" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p7" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>“Today,” </i>deBoer writes,<i> “left-activist spaces are dominated by the college-educated, many of whom grew up in affluence and have never worked a day at a physically or emotionally demanding job.... For that reason, these spaces prioritize “the immaterial and symbolic” over “the material and the concrete.” </i></span></span></p><p class="p7" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p7" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk7Xalz-TFHy-PTczvESZMILQOKsrYtl0DLaoUKPkTpqK2ln-_pgtnVnon-nfiT5T2dAj-McUTzuasOnV81hhh6RkGCQxnVU2nvaxN9ZIGcJm6HzuEPUszvxQPPkkS0eEJPlFCa3HuY-h-tCd7scd9211VrZYHLsW_9j5Na9dz6dWCko5wiA/s936/CULTURE-WAR.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="936" data-original-width="699" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk7Xalz-TFHy-PTczvESZMILQOKsrYtl0DLaoUKPkTpqK2ln-_pgtnVnon-nfiT5T2dAj-McUTzuasOnV81hhh6RkGCQxnVU2nvaxN9ZIGcJm6HzuEPUszvxQPPkkS0eEJPlFCa3HuY-h-tCd7scd9211VrZYHLsW_9j5Na9dz6dWCko5wiA/s320/CULTURE-WAR.png" width="239" /></a></span></span></div><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Above all: sanctimony-driven activism extolls <i>purity of dogma</i> and proper incantations over incremental progress. (Hence ignoring the incredible accomplishments of the Pelosi 2021-2 Congress.) It encourages disdain for the legitimacy of allies who might not adopt – or agree with – every polemical litmus test. And the electoral results are devastating, as attacks on allies weaken the very coalitions that must be broad enough to achieve working <i>power</i>.</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p class="p7" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>Dig it folks. </i>As much as it hurts - the guy is generally correct. Liberalism is bleeding away Hispanics and Blacks and many others who are sick of being <i>told what to believe</i>, by smug patrons who should instead be <i>listening. </i> </span></span></p><p class="p7" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p7" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Indeed, you start to see why the Mad/Treasonous right has survived and even flourished, despite their utterly disproved policies and long-expected demographic collapse.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></span></p><p class="p6" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p7" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">It also fits and explains the most bizarre-ingrate rightwing trend I have ever seen, a full-court press campaign to <i>discredit the universities</i> that were the topmost investment of the GI Bill generation. The very institutions that actually Made America Great.</span></span></p><p class="p7" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p6" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"></span>Oh, the Confederate madness WILL pass away into discredited insipidity, the way it did in most earlier phases of America’s 250 year <a href="Civil War Phases - CONTRARY BRIN - http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2014/09/phases-of-american-civil-war.html" target="_blank">ongoing Civil War</a>. </span></p><p class="p6" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p6" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">But it would have happened long ago, except for the sanctimony fetishism of our own mad wing.</span></p><p class="p6" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p6" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p6" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== Will this too pass? ==</b></span></p><p class="p6" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><br /></p><p class="p7" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Some <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-destroy-america-russian-propaganda-1826734" target="_blank">things</a> just explain themselves.</span></p><p class="p7" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: #2b2b2b; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p7" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #2b2b2b;">Much has been said about the role of fear in propelling our social and political problems. It was much discussed in <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/postman.html" target="_blank">The Postman</a>, where I projected <u>fear</u> as the last straw that triggered violence and the Great Collapse. Still, hardly anyone – even anthropologists – offer deep perspective on the big tradeoff underlying it all. Closest was Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, which I cite here, in </span><a href="http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2015/07/altruistic-horizons-our-tribal-natures.html" target="_blank">Altruistic Horizons: Our tribal natures, the ‘fear effect’ vs. inclusion</a><span style="color: #2b2b2b;">… and the end of ideologies.”</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>“Private jets cause 14 times more pollution than commercial flights. But now momentum is building around the world to rein in billionaires and make them pay for the destruction they're causing. <a href="https://act.sumofus.org/go/666963?t=10&akid=124965%2E21492019%2EkDI2nE" target="_blank">Add your name</a> to demand taxing private jets, and share this widely!”<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></i><br /></span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">I would in fact go much farther! There should be a target date for a worldwide convergence to demonstrate at every private jet terminal, with placards shouting <i>Get Back Into First Class!</i> Let’s see them denounce <i>that</i> as ‘commie!’<br /><br />Of course this is also a result of the apparent determination, by a microencephalic, flattery-lobotomized aristocratic caste, to revive the concept of Class War, that had been thrown in the dustbin by the New Deal reforms. (Engendering a calm and spectacularly productive middle.)<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p16" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 13px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">In their drive (though they seem too dumb to realize it) to resurrect Karl Marx, today’s moronic oligarchs actually seem to believe their best path to restoring feudalism will be to wage all-out war against … nerds!<span class="Apple-converted-space"> Yes, those geeks who know stuff. Those who daily craft miracles and advances that stand a real chance of saving the world.</span></span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-converted-space">Alas, the spoiled, prepper-lord oligarchs have an unexpected ally -- <i>Hollywood - </i> whose relentless series of downer stories do <u>not</u> have the salutary effects that I described in <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/vividtomorrows.html" target="_blank">Vivid Tomorrows: Science Fiction and Hollywood</a> - warnings that can be acted upon and save us all, as 'self-preventing prophecies. </span></span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-converted-space">No, So many of today's movies are despair cult stuff. Take so many recent flicks, like <i>Leave the World Behind,</i> which is all about <i>demolishing all hope or confidence.</i> Attacking even any remaining scintilla of a notion that millions of skilled people might cooperate to save something worth preserving...</span></span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-converted-space">...like a <i>civilization</i> that - for all of its flaws - has been very good to us.</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><br /></p></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com201tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-15602170660808098942023-12-30T13:07:00.000-08:002024-01-06T14:56:07.861-08:00Advanced tips for rising writers.<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin: 0in;"></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">On this occasion, as we swing into a 2024 that cannot evade its destiny to be 'historic,' let me turn attention to something apolitical...</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white;">... the</span><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><i>art and skill of writing credible fiction.</i><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Many of you already know my <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/advice.htm" style="color: #954f72;">more general site of Advice to Rising Writers</a>. But offered here below is a supplement - a cluster of specific tricks of the trade. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin: 0in;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin: 0in;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">But first...</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin: 0in;"><a name="_Hlk151889117"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a name="_Hlk151889117">Here's a link to a recording of the </a><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fy3qPm74XoE" style="color: #954f72;">first public performance of my play “The Escape,”</a> on November 7 at Caltech. A 'reading' but fully dramatized, well-acted and directed by Joanne Doyle*. The recording is of middling quality, but shows great audience reactions. Come have some good, impudently theological fun! You can also read the script of <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/escape.html" target="_blank">The Escape: A Confrontation in Four Scenes</a> - available on <a href="https://amzn.to/3H2vel3" target="_blank">Amazon</a>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And now, for you would-be Great Writers...</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== The "Advice to New Writers of SF" packet from David Brin ==</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">This is a ‘canned’ general essay about tricks and skills of writing. It's not an instruction manual to become a great author! More a compilation of ‘wisdom’ chunks about some common mistakes often trip up would-be novelists etc. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Many have have told me they found this advice useful in their writers’ journey. You can find more for authors <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/advice.htm" target="_blank">on my website</a>. Let's begin:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>Naturally, it’s terrific that you are writing and I do want to offer encouragement! </i>Still, there is good news and bad news in this modern era. The good: there are so many new ways to get heard, or read, or published that any persistent person can get ‘out there.’ Talent and good ideas will see the light of day! </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">The bad news? it’s now so easy to get "published," bypassing traditional channels, that millions get to convince themselves <i>"I am a published author!"</i> without passing through the old grinding mill, where my generation honed our skills by dint of relentless workshopping, criticism, rejection, revision and pain. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC7yC2uFMTbN-VU1ORGTihwK4O9Dj6w1x-Mw9E4XwH54zXSwgJnQXztc4fSAHEDwy4HSk_IAy7zwjxi0fOUNAeX1D-8U3MridWBVXfZLwRNPQCReMLmk6pV-2gS1m5q3DvKQq2faJhQh5qkp1NBxFJNnNxPhuUWuJSwKQYZlDPt-z9xG4D-Q/s933/write-tips.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="933" data-original-width="701" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC7yC2uFMTbN-VU1ORGTihwK4O9Dj6w1x-Mw9E4XwH54zXSwgJnQXztc4fSAHEDwy4HSk_IAy7zwjxi0fOUNAeX1D-8U3MridWBVXfZLwRNPQCReMLmk6pV-2gS1m5q3DvKQq2faJhQh5qkp1NBxFJNnNxPhuUWuJSwKQYZlDPt-z9xG4D-Q/s320/write-tips.png" width="240" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Alas, fiction writing is a complex art that involves a lot of tradecraft... as it would if you took up landscape painting or silver smithing. It is insufficient simply to have ideas or to be skilled at nonfiction-prose. <i>Nor does a lifetime of reading stories prepare you to write them, alas!</i> </span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Storytelling is incantatory magic and there are aspects to the incantation process that are mostly invisible to the incantation recipient (reader). This means that extensive workshopping and skill-building are as important today as they were 30 years ago. And for that, you need to do one of the most difficult-but-rewarding things a mature human can do – relish and <i>seek criticism</i>.</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">This is not meant to be discouraging! In fact I am appending (below) a slug of 'generic advice'... much of it probably already below your level! Still, some items may not be. In fact, many published authors have found these insights helpful. I hope you will. But either way, do persevere.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Again, let me point you to an "advice article" that I've posted online, containing a distillation of wisdom and answers to questions I've been sent across 20 years. (Note, most authors never answer at all.) This article is at: <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/advice.htm">http://www.davidbrin.com/advice.htm</a></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">I can also offer a general site containing advice bits from other top writers. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">In this <a href="http://www.scoop.it/t/advice-for-writers" target="_blank">collection</a> of writing tips, I especially recommend the short how-to books of my colleague Nancy Kress, such as <a href="https://amzn.to/4alh4ZO" target="_blank">Beginnings, Middles & Ends</a>. Also <a href="https://amzn.to/3RFY5S9" target="_blank">The Craft of Writing Science Fiction that Sells</a>, by Ben Bova. And <a href="https://amzn.to/3RG9Isk" target="_blank">The Illustrated Guide to Creating Imaginative Fiction</a>, by J. VanderMeer.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Then there is my <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPTE8vdYqAM&feature=youtu.be" target="_blank">advice video!</a> </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mqEjCSNAzc" target="_blank">some from Robert Heinlein</a> (via J Pournelle) </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">But let’s get started on this list of specific examples: things that (alas) even very talented neo-authors do, all too often.</span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== The biggest problem ==</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> Skills at rapid-opening, point-of-view, showing-not-telling, action, evading passive-voice and so on are achieved by studied workshopping and -- as in most arts -- the whole thing is predicated upon ineffable things like talent, e.g. an ear for dialogue that only some people have. Indeed, <i>point-of-view</i> is so hard that half of would-e writers never "get" it, no matter how many years they put in.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* By far the most important pages are the first ones, when you hook the reader. And you need a great first paragraph to get them to read the first page. Starting with the Pov’s (Point of View character’s) name is certainly okay… even Heinlein did it now and then. (Though just the first name suffices; leave the last name for later.) Still, it is often better to start with an <i>italicized internal thought,</i> or an ironic observation, or spoken words or actions. See an example, below.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* Reiterating that key point: POV (point of view) is among the hardest things for most new writers to master. It gives your characters a “voice,” and presence and offers the reader a sense of vesting in the protagonist’s feelings and needs and will. This is all ruined by authorial data-dumps that make you feel lectured-to by a narrator! It's better to reveal info as efficiently as possible via conversation, action and the point of view character's internal thoughts. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Yes, you have a lot of information to deliver! You want the reader to know all about your precious character and world and situation, I get it. But be patient and <i>tell as little of that as you can get away with,</i> while hooking the reader's curiosity to learn more.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">One great way to break the bad habit of narrator dumps is to develop <i>visceral discomfort with three words: <b>‘were,’ 'was,’ </b>and especially <b>‘had.' </b></i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Oh, sure — “had”, “were” and “was” are permitted. They are even sometimes necessary! But you should find each use <i>regrettable</i>. Each time should cause a wee bit of pain! Because ‘had’ – and to a lesser extent “was” — often indicates that the narrator, instead of the point of view character (or pov) is <i>dumping</i> or <i>explaining</i>, instead of <i>showing</i>. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">If you look at my books, you'll find I include lots of ideas and background of past events, but I pace them in with movement, action, conversation and internal thoughts. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Seriously. right now go to your draft and do a global search for ‘had.’ (And the even-worse apostrophe-d -- <i>'d</i> -- ick!). Then global-search "was." Do the pages light up? Now do the same thing with your favorite novels, by authors you admire. I think you'll get the point.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== Example illustrating many of the points above ==</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Here’s an excerpt - the opening line for a novel that someone sent to me, asking for advice:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: courier; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: courier; font-size: medium;">Captain Bara Brakin hated the noise and turmoil of crowds, yet now she was stuck on crowd control in a busy tunnel-street of Deep Kinshasa while her patrol ship was in spacedock for repairs. She'd joined Solar Space Force to get away from Earth cities, and the effect of crowds on her magneto-psi sense. She'd loved every minute of her month of relative quiet on pirate patrol in the asteroids. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Notice especially the telltale narrator dump cues of "had" and "was" and "were" and “‘d”. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Were you vexed to see the word 'patrol' repeated in a single paragraph? <i>Repeatitis</i> is a far lesser sin. In fact there's no reason to diss Hemingway for ignoring the rule habitually! Still, many readers dislike it. Also, beginning with the character's full name isn't generally advisable.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Okay, let’s see if we can convey all the same information (and more from later paragraphs) <i>dynamically</i> by removing any presence of the narrating author. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Try this instead:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: courier; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><i><span style="font-family: courier; font-size: medium;">Damn I hate crowd control duty. </span></i></p><p><span style="font-family: courier; font-size: medium;">Over the tunnel noise and throng confusion of Deep New Delhi, Kara could barely hear her sergeant growl in agreement, as if reading her mind. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: courier; font-size: medium;">“How long till the ship is fixed cap? I didn’t join SSF for this shit.” </span></p><p><span style="font-family: courier; font-size: medium;">Of course it was a coincidence – Gomez didn’t have her magneto-psi sense.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: courier; font-size: medium;">“Belay that,” She snapped. “Well be back out there on comfy pirate patrol in no time.”</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Do you see how I dumped in far more information via internal (italicized) thoughts, sensory input and conversation, without once using “had” or even “was”? Now add some spicey action… someone in the crowd throws something... and you’ve started rolling along, supplying lots of background info without an intruding narrator dump! </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Again (because these lessons only sink in from repetition) do a global search of your MS for "had" and "was" and "were." Every single instance should prompt: "Can I tell this another way? Or even NOT tell it, or let that info float in, later?" Try it. You'll write better stuff.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== Generic advice blips ==</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* All else being equal, it's best to stick with... and master ... standard storytelling techniques before branching off boldly in new directions. Hence third-person in the immediate-past tense, with almost invisible narrator, is generally a good old style to use, especially your first few outings. (And it is preferred in the <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/outoftime.html">Out of Time series of YA novels</a> I use to mentor new writers.) <i>First-person</i> immediate-past is also fine (I've used it a lot) though it requires care in POV and has traps to evade. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Lately we've all been seeing a lot of works in present tense. Yes, this can be done well (e.g. Vonnegut) and times do change, I guess. But far more often present tense invites authorial data dumps, POV flipping and nagging intrusions by an omniscient narrator, leaving us detached from the protagonist character. I don't like it, much.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* As noted, many readers hate “repeatitis” where a word gets repeated a lot. Even twice can be reader-irritating. English is so rich with synonyms and alternate ways of saying the same thing, that you can usually avoid it, unless repetition is a deliberate poetical device. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">This stricture has no strong reason for it. As I said, authors like Hemingway violated it a lot. But most professionals cater to this common reader whim. And hence, you’ll pick up a habit of minimizing even too many close repeats of “the.”</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* Prologues can be nice, if short. But often they serve as crutches.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* One problem I used to see a lot, but perhaps less-so today, is excessive use of adjectives and flowery prose. Still, keep an eye out for it.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* Want a simple trick to learn master craft? Find a dozen openings of novels you greatly admire and RE-TYPE THE FIRST COUPLE OF PAGES to see how that author did it! Just re-reading those pages will not work! I guarantee you will only understand how those authors did it if you retype the opening scene, passing the words through your fingers. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And you’ll grasp that establishing POV early while minimizing data dumping is the hardest thing for neos to learn, yet absolutely essential. No matter how wonderful your ideas are, they are useless unless you master how to hook.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Talk this over with your colleagues. Read aloud together and critique the first 5 paragraphs of lots of writers. Do nothing else in your workshop, till you all understand how to establish both the scene/situation and POV laced into conversation, action and internal thoughts.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">*OVERALL WRITING RHYTHM: For novels:</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Work out a significant part of the setting and plot elements, particularly socio-political dynamics of the world, as foundation. I do a lot of this in my head. But feel free to chart it out, as Heller and Vonnegut did!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">-Start with interesting characters but don't get too specific till THEY start speaking up with their concerns and idiosyncrasies.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">-Try to start with a scene that grabs readers with action and/or vivi imagery and a world and character they want to learn more about.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">-Write about 30,000 words, then circulate a draft to consult with beta readers and experts for help refining setting and plot elements. Anything that confuses these readers "is my fault."</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">-Revise those first 30,000 words with all you've learned, esp. about the characters... and then continue forward, adding 30,000 words.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">-Consult with more beta readers, do another revision of all 60K... then add 30,000 words, and spin and repeat until complete. This pattern works for me because "my openings are the weakest part of the process so they get reworked till they pop. I write endings that work first draft. A different rhythm works for different authors.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* Finally, there are many other sources of good writing wisdom! One of the best is by my friend and colleague and ought-to-be-Grand Master of SF Nancy Kress, who details how you can create a main character readers won't forget and plant essential information about a character's past into a story? I cannot recommend this one too highly! See "<a href="https://amzn.to/3RE7ud9" target="_blank">Write Great Fiction: Characters, Emotion & Viewpoint</a>."</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* Author James Murdo offers this handy tool to make a <a href="https://www.jamesmurdo.com/glossary_generator.html" target="_blank">Glossary</a> for your novel. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Oh, there’s so much more that I discuss when teaching workshops. General skills and tricks specific to science fiction. Like why you should make your first novel a murder mystery!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Alas, though, that’s all I have time for. Still, I hope it’s been useful. Remember to read carefully my “advice article” at http://www.davidbrin.com/advice.htm, where there are links to the advice missives by many other successful authors… and some disagree with me on every point raised here!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Above all keep at it! That’s the key to success, even more important than “seek feedback!”</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> Persevere.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> Good luck! </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">With best wishes, for a confident and ambitious 21st Century,</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">David Brin</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">* </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: small;">(Note, for copyright reasons video of "The Escape" goes silent, omitting some of the wonderfully apropos background music! For example after scene 2 (The Stones “Sympathy for the Devil;”) and at the end, when you see the audience cheering silently during “You Gotta Have Heart!” the great song from Damn Yankees, related to the theme of the play. Pity! Still, I think you’ll laugh a few times… or go “Huh!”)</span></p></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com143tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-12786009320078248772023-12-28T10:38:00.000-08:002023-12-28T10:38:01.632-08:00Will the Supremes Dump Donald? And the Doctorow Doctrine on AI<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">So now there's speculation that the U.S. Supreme Court might back up Colorado and disqualify Trump, by saying 'it's up to each state.' I am skeptical. In fact, there's just one way that could happen....</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">... and that would be if Thomas, Kavanaugh, Gorsuch and especially John Roberts get <i>orders</i> to do so, from the oligarchy that they serve. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>Why</i> would the oligarch masters order such a hit on Trump, the best asset they ever had? Their greatest tool promoting neo-feudalism vs. against the American Enlightenment Experiment? </span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>Two reasons based on two possibilities.</b> </span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">It could happen either ...</span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">(a) ...if Trump is <i>losing big, </i>if Trump seems on the verge of torching their main weapon against modernity, the Republican Party... </span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">...or else ...</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">(b) ...if <i>he wins,</i> bigtime! Whereupon he keeps his declared word and then goes full brownshirt, exactly as he's now promising! Whereupon - as at the end of <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0068327/" target="_blank"><i>Cabaret</i></a> or in <i>The Manchurian Candidate</i> - the oligarchs realize too late that they can no longer control their tool. And he'll rampage through the aristocracy that nurtured him, the way Hitler did. </span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Either way, they lose! So yeah, they are talking about dumping him. <i>But how? </i>His MAGA/confederate/brownshirt popularity means that no pliably-controlled 'mainstream' tool, like Nikki Haley, will come to the rescue. </span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">So what are the Masters' options? </span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Here I'll speculate, starting with a question...</span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">... <b>what is the consensus aim of the world oligarchic putsch?</b> Is there still a <i>common goal</i> among the casino mafiosi, hedge moguls, carbon lords/sheiks, prepper fetishists, inheritance brats and "ex"-commissar "former"-stalinists in the slightly-relabeled KGB? </span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-zu5dg2joTjBkN1KuCCu5PY_6PYJiiPCzLbaHrIb8glOb0BUU6o8v0marJdg7SzQn9mLN60CdQqI_EF9aS2j9DAJQqVyZttUgHixARZWu6g_wJjombJeKG2-mnXG6ob11_V8Leic7q3nxfSZ97gkwbXjLzmc78hI5l6d2dhdXxjqJLtNu-A/s933/SUPREME-COURT-TRUMP.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="933" data-original-width="701" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-zu5dg2joTjBkN1KuCCu5PY_6PYJiiPCzLbaHrIb8glOb0BUU6o8v0marJdg7SzQn9mLN60CdQqI_EF9aS2j9DAJQqVyZttUgHixARZWu6g_wJjombJeKG2-mnXG6ob11_V8Leic7q3nxfSZ97gkwbXjLzmc78hI5l6d2dhdXxjqJLtNu-A/s320/SUPREME-COURT-TRUMP.png" width="240" /></a></div>1. The goal may still be utter demolition of the American-led Enlightenment,</b> that blocks any return to 6000 years of inheritance-based rule by lords, kings and priests. <b><i>This has been their project for 30 years, already, </i></b>by inciting a hot new phase of the recurring, 240 year US Civil War. </span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Certainly many of the <a href="https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2023/09/prepper-lords-intend-to-leave-us-in.html" target="_blank">Prepper fetishists and sheiks dream of an "Event"</a> tearing down the USA. </span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Only now one sees signs that some of the smarter oligs are staring to reconsider this risky gamble, this killing of the goose that laid all their golden eggs.</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Alas, despite tome recent defections, there's still a LOT of money and power dedicated to this all-or-nothing gamble. And the <i>core</i> of this scheme remains, as for 106 years, in Moscow. </span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Sure, the 'former' commie Putinists look like they are weakening, in Ukraine. Still, <i>they</i> are the ones holding masses of <i>blackmail kompromat </i>on prominent westerners, especially most of the high goppers. So, Putin remains the putative leader of those who <i>want an America in flames.</i> And again... he has the blackmail files on hundreds, including likely Supreme Court 'justices.' (See links* below.)</span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">If that goal truly remains the oligarchy's consensus, then the thing they'll want to do with Trump is obvious! </span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>Martyrdom</i>. </span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">The 'Howard Beale' option, in such a way as to blame lib'ruls and incite a tsunami of Timothy McVeighs - and much more - across our land.</span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>2. What if the goal is to salvage something of a Republican Party that they can still control</b>, while maintaining a USA that continues to generate wealth and science and new medical advances to save oligarch lives... plus space junkets and all the things that make their wealth worthwhile to any sane person? </span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">In that case, a gentler <i>easing out</i> of Trump will suffice. And orders will go out to Roberts & co., telling them to do just that... </span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">...and it becomes Nikki Haley after all! Counting on enough women voters to defect and save them. (Her latest flubs mayshift that.)</span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">True, dumping Trump will incite civil war <i>within</i> the GOP, as ol Don rages against every betrayal by former friends, going <i>third party </i>pyrotechnically. And yes, November 2024 would thus see a huge blue wave, leading to a surge of legislation that's badly needed for the nation's good... including some rise in taxation of the rich. And it's likely many blackmailed goppers will slide into retirement...</span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">...but the saner aristocrats might swallow that. They may realize that being merely very-rich in a vibrant, scientific and free civilization is more fun - and conducive of long life - than trying for feudal lordship amid ashes, hated by all the surviving nerds who know bio, cyber, nuclear, nano and who - </span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">volcanically angry - also know</span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"> the detailed locations of every prepper redoubt.</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Anyway, in U.S. politics everything is ephemeral. By 2026, a reformed Republican Party would come roaring back. Count on it. Just - pretty please - make it one with a scintilla of modernity and loyalty and sanity. </span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== So, will they or won't they? ==</span></b></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Hence, <i>do</i> I think the Supremes will </span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">actually</span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"> disqualify Trump? Even if Thomas, Kavanaugh, Gorsuch and especially John Roberts get <i>orders</i> to do so, from the oligarchy they serve?</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Nah. At this point they are far more afraid of MAGA brownshirts than they are of feudal overlords with blackmail kompromat. Roberts & co. will protect Donald. And we'll have to take him out at the ballot box, ourselves.</span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">*Links regarding likely blackmail of the GOP establishment:</span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">*<a href="https://www.rawstory.com/tim-burchett-congressman/?fbclid=IwAR1JLSO4Fg7rhLMWj6fHclScqf_m7dnVJJ16Hx2DRtQP7L8WfpUOLpsXF5c" target="_blank">GOP lawmaker says fellow Republicans compromised by sex and drugs</a>.</span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">* <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/blackmail.html" target="_blank">Political Blackmail: The Hidden Danger to Public Servants</a>. </span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">* <a href="https://art19.com/shows/talking-feds/episodes/f3ecef50-f14d-4704-a10c-15e97cd66506?fbclid=IwAR2h4uOGt2gkJ0flWdOxVNjRg3-S24mxuFh7boUrrRmRg3PffLqJ--VZPZY" target="_blank">Talking Feds: From Russia with kompromat</a>.</span><br /><br /><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">(Side note: by siding with Colorado and dumping Trump, Roberts might thus proclaim: </span><i style="white-space: pre-wrap;">"See? We ARE neutral! So when Dems resume power, please don't reform or expand the Court?")</i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><i><br /></i></span><br /><b>== The Doctorow Doctrine? ==</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat white; color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://locusmag.com/2023/12/commentary-cory-doctorow-what-kind-of-bubble-is-ai/" target="_blank">Cory Doctorow takes on the “AI Bubble”</a> with his usual fury and indignant panache, blending a very substantial amount of knowledge with equal dollops of tendentious cynicism (his trademark) and – frankly – this time throwing in more outrageously false statements than I have ever seen him issue before. (Especially in the first paragraph!) The result is very much worth reading, for litanies of examples and keen insights, while you should remain wary about those tendentiously compulsive cynical declarations.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat white; color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Is this whole ‘AI thing’ an overhyped bubble? Sure, as an economic or commercial investment. For one thing, Cory is right about the vast energy requirements of these art-and-language emulators. For another, ‘gollms’ or generative large language models are <i>inherently</i> incapable of sapience! Though they will soon be profoundly good at faking it, passing most Turing tests by simple, brute force sentence-completion. Moreover, efficiencies will arise, as these prematurely labeled ‘intelligences’ focus on optimizations.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat white; color: #202020;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat white; color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Still, none of that truly matters. Because this time success vs failure won’t be measured by investor losses in tens of billions of dollars, but rather in terms of manipulative POWER… the power to spread Turing-passed falsehoods that make today’s disinformation waves seem like Mother Goose.<br /><br />In fact, the real issue is whether there can be anything like an Enlightenment Civilization issuing forth and surviving and even augmenting, from the arrival of these tools. A civilization in which ‘truth’ and ‘fact’ are still things. One where predatory liars are caught and deterred often enough for us to stumble forward in at least some confidence and overall safety. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat white; color: #202020;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat white; color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">That can only happen if we utilize the same tool that enabled the last 200 years of gradually improving civilization to continue our historically miraculous escape from six millennia of brutal, feudal predation.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat white; color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat white; color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">That tool? It’s called reciprocal accountability amid general transparency. The very same tool that Cory is attempting to apply upon those he deems to be fools or villains… and that I am applying to him, as I type. We both have the same habit, learned from the same civilization, though we differ in awareness of that fact.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat white; color: #202020;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat white; color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">There is no other conceivable solution than incentivized reciprocal accountability. In fact there is no other even plausible method in our toolbox. Just as we learned to somewhat tame those hyper-intelligent predators called <i>lawyers,</i> by siccing them upon each other, we desperately need to figure out – quick – how to get AIs <i>holding each other accountable,</i> both on our behalf and for incentive rewards – or else this experiment is done. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat white; color: #202020;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat white; color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">I talk about one approach to doing this <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/give-every-ai-a-soul-or-else/" target="_blank">in my WIRED article</a>. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat white; color: #202020;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat white; color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">We have a window of opportunity to get these new entities <b>competing with each other</b> to catch liars on our behalf. And that matters to me, far more than whether the Uber company is commercial toast.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat white; color: #202020;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in;"><span style="background: repeat white; color: #202020;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">-----<o:p></o:p></span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background: repeat white; color: #202020;">Oh, in addition to the WIRED piece... my <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/soon-humanity-wont-alone-universe-opinion-1717446" target="_blank">related NEWSWEEK op-ed</a> (June’22) dealt with ‘empathy bots’’ that feign sapience and personhood. And the most accurate multi-year prediction I ever made. So far.</span><b><br /></b></span><br /></div></div></div></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com47tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-76790345373270371382023-12-24T13:00:00.000-08:002023-12-24T13:00:44.621-08:00Patterns and tactics that debase our politics (and maybe even yours)<p><b style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: arial; orphans: 2; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><span style="font-size: medium;">== Again, be passionate... but NOT "mad as hell!" ==</span></b></p><p><span><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; orphans: 2; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black;">As we embark on a year of political hell in the USA - and therefore the world - I plead with all sides to see how our deepest sickness - deliberately stoked by enemies - is a self-doped high of <b>sanctimony</b> that afflicts ALL partisans, of all kinds! (And yes, including me.)</span></span></span></p><p><span><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; orphans: 2; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black;">Please watch my TEDxUCSD talk on “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i275AvgVvow" target="_blank">The addictive plague of getting mad as hell</a>.” </span><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; white-space: normal;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; white-space: normal;" /><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black;">That does <i>not</i> mean that all sides are morally or factually the same! You all know that I believe – supported by mountains of proof – that <i>one</i> of the US parties has spiraled into utter insanity, waging all-out war vs ALL fact using professions, from science and teaching, medicine and law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps who won the Cold War and the War on terror. </span><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; white-space: normal;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; white-space: normal;" /><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black;">So yes, I am dedicated to the ‘Union” side – nearly always the good side – in this <a href="http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2014/09/phases-of-american-civil-war.html" target="_blank">latest phase of the 240 year American Civil war</a>. </span></span></span></p><p><span><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: arial; orphans: 2; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; font-size: large;">Still, there can be no doubt that many on our side, as well, are poisoned by this mind plague that robs humans of their reason. And it makes for a fractious alliance… the only one with a chance to save the nation, the planet and our children. In other words, <i>we cannot afford this malignancy-addiction.</i></span><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; white-space: normal;" /><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; white-space: normal;" /><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black;">*(Here's scientific background: <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/addiction.html" target="_blank">Addicted to Self-Righteousness?</a></span><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black;"> And my video: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i275AvgVvow" target="_blank">Indignation, addiction and hope</a>.)</span></span><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: black; white-space: normal;" /><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== Patterns and currents that flow <i>below</i> your favorite - or most-hated - memes ==</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>First a couple of notes:</i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>A June milestone passed without much notice, <a href="https://heartland.org/opinion/celebrating-adam-smith-on-his-300th-birthday/" target="_blank">the 300<sup>th</sup> anniversary of the birth of Adam Smith</a>, arguably as important to our Enlightenment Experiment as even the American revolutionary ringleader, Ben Franklin. See my posting: </span> <a href="http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2013/11/liberals-you-must-reclaim-adam-smith.html" target="_blank">Adam Smith - Liberals, you must reclaim him</a><span>.</span><span> </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>Okay, so can we wean ourselves off carbon? The zero-sum Foxite meme is that Democrats' push for sustainable alternatives </span><i>must</i><span> mean more dependence on oil imports. Yes? <i>Um, no?</i></span><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/28/republicans-gas-prices-oil-production-00111626" target="_blank">U.S. oil production is forecast to average an all-time high of 12.8 million barrels a day this year </a><span>and keep growing to 13.1 million in 2024, even as sustainables surge. That means the loser is... OPEC. Indeed, effective energy independence from OPEC happened under Barack Obama.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>Still, U.S. fuel <i>market price</i> sways on decisions made at the oil cartel’s machinations. Feeding lie-narratives from Fox etc. that Joe Biden has hampered US production. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>To be clear. I want rapid progress toward zero carbon! (A carbon tax is essential.) Still, today's surge in sustainables like wind and solar ironically depends on a steady supply of reliable transition energy. We do our best and most rapid work not with purity, but momentum and determination.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><b>== Political tactics in play! ==</b></span></span></p><p class="p7" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><span><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;">Most Americans - indeed most Earthers - spent their formative years suckling from the greatest propaganda campaign in history, called Hollywood, <i>yet cannot name the deep reflexes they were taught</i>... like Suspicion of Authority. No, you didn't invent <i>SoA</i> - the main theme in almost every film you ever loved. </span></span></span><span><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;">I talk about that in <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/vividtomorrows.html" target="_blank">Vivid Tomorrows.</a> </span></span></span></p><p class="p7" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span><span class="s3" style="font-family: arial; font-kerning: none; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p7" style="color: #040404; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;">But what of the <i>American Empire</i>? Loathed and admired, might it open a path to an <i>end</i> to all empires? In an older essay, </span></span><span>I laid out possibilities for how Pax Americana could succeed its way into revered retirement, in favor of the Earth Federation we see so often portrayed in sci fi. See </span><a href="http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2006/01/more-misc-and-adolescent-thumping.html" target="_blank">Whatever Comes Next.</a> </span></p><p class="p8" style="color: #1badf3; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p8" style="color: #1badf3; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyCZgj3Ni3A0_Gn5ByPJywyLjzINyaklIq37j7jem1zdtheMf6Roob26crt6EIy6FV2ay9BP80RRoqJF7AGb6xYpluPDtjFABV0FTfXGAUDVINeLwN4E-9opYcr2l8GvHloS_UvjVpqkLjwEzaZGM9EKlxgmdauXL-lxIe7iohN2c2TonMjg/s936/tactics.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="936" data-original-width="698" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyCZgj3Ni3A0_Gn5ByPJywyLjzINyaklIq37j7jem1zdtheMf6Roob26crt6EIy6FV2ay9BP80RRoqJF7AGb6xYpluPDtjFABV0FTfXGAUDVINeLwN4E-9opYcr2l8GvHloS_UvjVpqkLjwEzaZGM9EKlxgmdauXL-lxIe7iohN2c2TonMjg/s320/tactics.png" width="239" /></a></span></span></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: black; font-family: arial;">Meanwhile, alas, the troglodyte-right is pitching a "system overhaul" for the U.S. government in a plan called <i>Project 2025</i>, a revealing and horrifying look at what many leading entities on the right have in store for America, should Donald Trump return to the White House. </span><span class="s7" style="color: black; font-family: arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">Target #1 is the 140 year <i>Civil Service Act,</i> that transformed the old Spoils System into the corps of professionals that gave us the first (mostly) honest governance in human history.</span></span><div><span style="color: #181818; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #181818; font-family: arial;">But that can't be allowed any longer, it seems. After winning the national popular vote only once in 30 years and retaining lots of power only due to cheats like gerrymandering and the Electoral College, today's oligarchy now realizes that all the regular tricks are failing, as ever-more millions get wise to them… </span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #181818; font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #181818; font-family: arial;">...and even confederate MAGAs will shrug off the hypnosis when the entire U.S. southeast gets trashed and flooded and malaria'd by climate change. </span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #181818; font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #181818; font-family: arial;">Indeed, the casino mafiosi, petro princes, hedge lords, inheritance brats and Kremlin "ex" commissars who own and operate today's GOP share two fears... </span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #181818; font-family: arial;">(1) that the sane American majority will reclaim power and calmly limit <i>theirs...</i> or else </span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #181818; font-family: arial;">(2) that the populist MAGA trend toward brownshirt-ism will reach the critical point portrayed at the very end of CABARET, when Michael York asks a smug German aristocrat: <i>"So, you still think you can control them?"</i></span></span><p class="p8" style="color: #1badf3; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="color: #181818; font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Hence, if they regain power in 2024 (and there are tricks in play) they know it could be their last chance to end one-person-one-vote democracy, to crush the civil servants and entrench inheritance-brat feudalism forever. ALL of the ‘reforms’ offered under “<a href="https://youtu.be/6HjlWRzSFDU?si=GJYLEufk2WvNBA3u" target="_blank">Project 2025</a>” have that aim, and to preserve the GOP’s sole political reason for existence.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">What reason is that? Why, to protect Supply Side tax grifts for the rich and keep eviscerating the IRS. LOOK at the actual bills passed by the Mike Johnson House - the laziest in 100 years. That truly is all they care about.</span></p><p class="p11" style="color: #106dd6; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Speaking of which - after one of those marvelous Pelosi Bills restored IRS funding, and the crippled agency is back on the job!<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>“<a href="https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/nation/story/2023-09-08/the-irs-plans-to-crack-down-on-1-600-millionaires-to-collect-millions-of-dollars-in-back-taxes" target="_blank">The IRS plans to crack down on 1,600 millionaires</a> to collect millions of dollars in back taxes.”<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Striking terror into the core of the cheater aristocracy, a form of anti-feudal revolution that I predicted in <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/earth.html" target="_blank">Earth</a>.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p22" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p class="p22" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== Patterns of Democracy ==</b></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p23" style="color: #2b2c2d; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s7" style="color: black; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">Alt sources of wisdom… assuming <i>I </i>am not enough of a wiseguy for you?;-)</span></span></p><p class="p23" style="color: #2b2c2d; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s7" style="color: black; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p23" style="color: #2b2c2d; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s7" style="color: black; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal;">Arend Lijphart seems worth looking into. </span>Beginning with his book <a href="https://amzn.to/45gk3yT" target="_blank">Patterns of Democracy: Government Forms and Performance in 36 countries</a>, and going back to his earlier work, <a href="https://amzn.to/48FZpew" target="_blank"><i>Democracies: Patterns of Majoritarian & Consensus Government in Twenty-one Countries</i></a> (1984), Lijphart focused on the broader contrast between <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Majoritarian_democracy%22%20%5Co%20%22Majoritarian%20democracy"><span class="s20" style="color: #8d74c0;">majoritarian democracy</span></a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consensus_democracy"><span class="s20" style="color: #8d74c0;">consensus democracy</span></a>.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Somewhat similar to Adam Smith and Arnold Toynbee, Lijphart argues that the main factor in having a viable democracy in a strongly divided society is the spirit of accommodation among the elites of different groups. </span></p><p class="p25" style="color: #2b2c2d; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p23" style="color: #2b2c2d; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And this is where I step in, with perspective on <i>6000 years of dullard feudal lords</i> practicing stoopid, zero-sum governance that held us back in 99% of past civilizations. Unsapiently pursuing male-reproductive reflexes (e.g. harem building), their imperative was - and remains - one that Smith and Marx and even Ayn Rand deeply loathed: creating empires to leave to those aforementioned inheritance brats.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p25" style="color: #2b2c2d; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p23" style="color: #2b2c2d; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Alas for the oligarch-castes, they cannot succeed in this project (eating the enlightenment goose that laid all their golden eggs) amid a healthy enlightenment society. One that practices actual politics… the open comparison of priorities, goals and means, especially <i>reciprocal accountability and good faith negotiation</i>… all of it guided by fact-professions who provide grounding in objective reality.</span></p><p class="p25" style="color: #2b2c2d; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p23" style="color: #2b2c2d; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">In order to restore feudal pyramids of power, today’s worldwide oligarchy must first <i>discredit those fact professions</i>… a campaign that’s already underway! While destroying – as they already have – <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/polemicaljudo.html" target="_blank">the practical art of politics</a>.</span></p><p class="p25" style="color: #2b2c2d; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p23" style="color: #2b2c2d; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Let there be no mistake here. Those are the two goals. Forget the details. Destroying enlightenment style politics of the kind described by Liphart – and discrediting all fact professions, from science, teaching, medicine, law and civil service to the heroes of the FBI/Intel/Military officer corps—Those are the two priorities that can lead to restoration of secure pyramids of inherited power… and to humanity’s extinction.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p23" style="color: #2b2c2d; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== Role Models? ==</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p26" style="color: #121a21; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Okay, <a href="https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1681424737384435713" target="_blank">this</a> from Margie Taylor Greene -- now just Marjorie Taylor (look up the differing divorce rates among high Republicans vs Dems!) - is just too rich. No need to even edit! (I suspect there's some compacting edits but you can't beat this!) </span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Then there’s the Lauren Boebert hypocrisy.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Why does no one recite the passage <i>“By their fruits you shall know them?”</i> Seldom mentioned by <i>anyone</i> is the dissonance of getting parenting advice from MTG, Boebert and Sarah Palin, then glancing – even<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>briefly – at <i>how their own children came out! </i> You hypocrites dare to preach to us?</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== A libertarian who (maybe) actually means it? ==</b></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Here’s an important <a href="https://www.cato.org/policy-report/january/february-2022/return-anti-enlightenment" target="_blank">article</a>, about ways that our Enlightenment Experiment is under fiercely coordinated attack. Sure, by now we <i>all</i> know that. The big surprise is where this thing was published, at an ‘institute’ that long ago became not a promoter of freedom but a shill for oligarchy. Only now we see a serious attempt to tear masks off of the world-lunatics who aim to restore feudalism. Could it be that some, at Cato, are rediscovering their stated mission?<br /><br /><i>“In an age of widespread concern that liberal democracy is increasingly embattled around the world, the twin attacks on Enlightenment liberalism from the right and the left—and not just from the fringes—represent a worrying trend.”</i></span></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br />Okay, sure, there are anti-enlightenment fanatics on all horizons. But these authors have realized what’s abundantly clear. That shrieks from a frippy far-left of woke-ist postmodernists are a much smaller threat... driven by sanctimony addictions, yet still rooted in enlightenment goals… while our meme-enemies on the far-right are massively coordinated, waging all-out attacks against our every pillar, from science, democracy, merit, and accountability… to, yes, any sort of freedom.<br /><br /><br /><b>== No longer even pretending ==</b><br /><br />In a worrisome trend, many elements of the oligarchy-funded <i>neo-feudalism movement</i> – that I’ve denounced ferociously <a href="https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2022/02/neo-monarchy-and-open-hatred-of.html" target="_blank">elsewhere</a> – no longer even try to disguise their intent to end anything like what we call liberty or free speech or open inquiry. </span></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p19" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s3" style="font-kerning: none;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Styling themselves as scions of Edmund Burke, their screeds display utter ignorance of human history or the past thinkers they claim to ‘quote.’ For example, as the Cato article points out, the "neo-monarchist' morons conflate Hobbes with Locke! While attributing to feudalism virtues that 6000 years of bullying lords always loudly claimed – but <i>never</i> actually displayed – as they preyed-upon and oppressed nearly all of our ancestors.<br /><br /></span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/09/praxis-society-city-dryden-brown-peter-thiel/" target="_blank">here</a> is a profile of <i>more</i> neo-monarchist brats, yattering (while they orbit Peter Thiel) about how a mixture of LouisXIV and czarist Putinism and Galt’s Gulch will (despite 6000 years of insipid-failed feudalism) somehow be vastly better (for uber lords, one imagines) than the scientific enlightenment that indulgently gave the ingrate-parasitic brats absolutely everything they ever had.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">I take solace from the evident fact that these malignant ingrates are also so very, very stoopid. Alas, they can still be dangerous.</span></p></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com107tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-60253040271824971972023-12-16T14:57:00.000-08:002023-12-18T07:44:13.943-08:00Human origins - and evolution. Patterns of cooperation and competition<p></p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>I'm avoiding politics once again this time, in order to dive into the endlessly fascinating topic of <i>human origins</i>. And hence first, <b>for your holiday shopping</b>.... </span></span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><br /></span></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.sjgames.com/tribes/" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1419" data-original-width="771" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCTQxWdd9xW6c_apKp5WF_I3e0rLzVANZBjxkN6mq_rX0-xQ2BOhfixe90sQWp0shB1TO3Vop7QG22fj3mkcbIna2LBJfNwY9KzBpRPgfQJSmBY-QmtYdhM__1_qE8U0gWuY4Kx6AX-0ZQcaZwOhl6r4BBgDVCDhyphenhyphenFn9XkVNZx1Zs7Vguqzg/w174-h280/tribes-jackson-brin.png" width="174" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>... a while back I suggested the <i>perfect gift for that anthropologist or paleo-historian you know (either professional or amateur!)</i> Or else your role-playing aficionado.<i> </i>My <a href="http://www.sjgames.com/tribes/" target="_blank">way-fun role-playing game TRIBES simulates life in the stone age!</a> </span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>Can <i>you</i> hunt and gather and woo and connive to have the most offspring successfully reach adulthood? Only be careful competing! You only win if the the tribe survives!</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>Alas, folks reported interest last time... but no way to actually <i>order</i> the game!</span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>Well, Steve Jackson has fixed the glitch. <a href="http://www.sjgames.com/tribes/" target="_blank">You can now order</a> and play this fun diversion that's also highly pertinent to today's topic! </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><b>== News about human origins and evolution ==</b></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><a href="https://scitechdaily.com/synthetic-evolution-genetically-minimal-artificial-cells-prove-life-finds-a-way/ " target="_blank">Scientists are advancing with synthetic evolution</a><span>: At 493 genes, the minimal genome of </span><i>M. mycoides </i><span>JCVI-syn3B is the smallest known free-living organism, artificially culled-down to the absolutely minimum number that’s viable by folks at the Craig Venter Institute. In comparison, many animal and plant genomes contain more than 20,000 genes. So far, the simplest organism would have no functional redundancies or useless spacers. Note that it requires the researchers to supply food and ideal conditions. Which leads to their next step… altering conditions to see if evolution takes place.</span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><span>Spoiler alert. It does.</span></span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s2">At the opposite end of the scale... Neanderthal genes! Was there a penalty for promiscuity around 50,000 BCE? <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><span>People with roots outside Africa tend to have about 2% Neanderthal (or else Denisovan) DNA in their genome. So statistically, by random chance, <a href="https://www.livescience.com/health/genetics/mysterious-viking-disease-linked-to-neanderthal-dna" target="_blank">you would expect Neanderthal DNA to collectively account</a> for around 2% of the genetic risk of disease. Not in all cases, it seems: "But here we find that 8.4% is explained by Neanderthal gene flow," much more than is expected by chance alone.”</span><span> </span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>It is so tiresome when sci journalists flub their reporting. Take these </span><a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2390124-our-ancestors-may-have-come-close-to-extinction-900000-years-ago/" target="_blank">reports that the human ancestral line almost died out due to low populations about 800,000 years ago.</a><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><span>Yes “bottlenecks” are very interesting! A recently discovered ‘y-chromosome bottleneck’ around the time of early farming towns, has huge implications! As for these news stories: yes, there was likely a time when Homo Heidelbergensis & Antecessor (ancestor of Homo Saps and Neanderthals) were a small, isolated population, and surviving that isolation helped them to thereupon differentiate and speed our evolution.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">But, this was not about ‘the human line almost dying out’! These articles ignore the fact that very close cousins to Heidelbergensis - Homo Erectus - were everywhere in the Old World with no bottleneck. An isolation bottleneck was likely HOW we surged ahead of Erectus – evolution flourishes on such cycles. But Erectus was still around and would likely have spun off another isolated population. And maybe super-brain sapiens might NOT have happened!<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>See my speculations in <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/existence.html" target="_blank">Existence</a>. Still, flawed reporting.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Human origins were definitely in Africa, stretching back to Australopithecus – “Lucy’ and her upright-walking kin. But further back to the ancestors of ALL apes? It appears that earlier hominids not only evolved in western and central Europe but spent over 5 million years evolving there and spreading to the eastern Mediterranean before eventually dispersing into Africa. Recent <a href="https://www.sci.news/paleontology/anadoluvius-turkae-12210.html" target="_blank">findings</a> establish <i>Anadoluvius turkae</i> as a branch of the part of the evolutionary tree that gave rise to chimpanzees, bonobos, gorillas and humans.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span> But sure, long after that, human genetic diversity in non-African populations appeared to have been shaped primarily by an out-of-Africa dispersal 50 or so thousand yr ago (kya). (As I describe in </span><a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/existence.html" target="_blank">Existence</a><span>.) With a major shift in reprogramming-by-culture. But somewhere around 7000ya there was another huge effect. Arrival of agriculture, towns and kings led to a Y-Chromosome <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4381518/" target="_blank">bottleneck</a> when only a small fraction of males got to breed. Then, rather quickly, actual cities got larger, law happened, and the great culling of males appears to have stopped... though not feudalism, dominating 99% of our ancestors.</span><br /><br /><span>We can do - and have done - better than that failed social norm.</span><br /><br /><span>See my neoteny article: </span><a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/neoteny1.html" target="_blank">Neoteny and Two-Way Sexual Selection in Human Evolution</a><span>. </span><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== Did we evolve all the things that make us what we are? ==</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhS9at9LeLPJeorYR00sC_LrFvd3wqmx8yDVVh_vMx19r9LiSw_aVLmWcWSjPJDujZqkyi2o9W2-rTGYcgYZr5LqoSraD60hLErMVMDTR5w2fbIGXLOAt6A00VHLmJrM4yE05gaD6qrnZrt6PY_KJ-0I82gz3myeIa-AOYs1JDogIQWfICm0Q/s938/origins.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="938" data-original-width="701" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhS9at9LeLPJeorYR00sC_LrFvd3wqmx8yDVVh_vMx19r9LiSw_aVLmWcWSjPJDujZqkyi2o9W2-rTGYcgYZr5LqoSraD60hLErMVMDTR5w2fbIGXLOAt6A00VHLmJrM4yE05gaD6qrnZrt6PY_KJ-0I82gz3myeIa-AOYs1JDogIQWfICm0Q/s320/origins.png" width="239" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">I want to just drop in here a few thoughts about Richard Dawkins (famed author of <a href="https://amzn.to/3RttWUS" target="_blank">The Selfish Gene</a> , <a href="https://amzn.to/3v46l5X" target="_blank">The Blind Watchmaker</a>, and <a href="https://amzn.to/3Ruh54K" target="_blank">The God Delusion</a>). Down in the comments community here at "Contrary Brin" (the very best such community online!), some opined a while back about Dawkins's belief that humans have no behaviors that did not arise from evolution. And I also must demur. What Dawkins etc. (and nearly all others) ignore is the emergent effects that occur when one layer of activity creates a new, ‘higher” layer.<br /><br />Cells are vast communities of sub-cellular entities that do their various tasks & business in a manner that is generally at least as much <i>competitive</i> as cooperative, making and ‘selling’ chemicals and structures to each other, much like an economy. Yet the cell seems from the outside to be a consistent, self-cooperative entity.<br /><br />In <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/earth.html" target="_blank">Earth</a> I describe how this same effect happens at the next layer between cells in a macro organism, especially during fetal development, when proto-neurons compete with each other savagely, over growth factors, resulting in whole ecosystem structures – jungles and forests and deserts, across the developing infant brain: structures that combine into vastly better mental processes, wherein many <i>next</i>-layer personality drives and components <i>continue to compete</i> across life… yet, the thing that emerges - an individually identifiable human being - portrays with some verisimilitude a unitary organism, actively and effectively pursuing goals…<br /><br />…goals that <i>change</i> as the organism satisfies ever-higher layers of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslow%27s_hierarchy_of_needs" target="_blank">Maslow’s hierarchy of needs</a>. All the way to abstractions that the cellular and mammal and ape and caveman brains that dwell inside our cortex could never begin to perceive, let alone understand.<br /><br />And sure, often these higher ‘value’ goals (e.g. religion) can often be just surface justifications for more brutal, lower drives like vengeance, jealously, fear and avarice. And yet… 50,000 years ago (I believe, and argue in <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/existence.html" target="_blank">Existence</a>), there came a new layering as humans became able to <i>re-program</i> their thinking modes completely via <i>culture</i>, leading to many subsequent major, 'renaissance' shifts in our tools, societies and things we can perceive/contemplate.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And of course this progression continues, as human individuals group themselves in cooperative - but also competitive - associations like families, tribes, communities, towns and nations. And <i>civilizations,</i> which aren't entirely the same thing. <br /><br />The crux: Dawkins is completely off-base if he thinks he can ascribe the emergent outcomes from those new and vividly unpredictable layers entirely to earlier evolved selection. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Every phase and every level reveals the truth that <i>nether cooperation nor competition can explain this, alone. </i>Each is entangled in layer after layer of complexity.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== Where our evolved natures collide with policy? And with AI? ==</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>Our evolved natures interact fretfully with new technologies. Take recent </span>cries that new <i>generative AI systems may decipher and interpret our personal DNA! </i>Yes, that could be worrisome!<span> A tool for criminals and oppressors and bigots. A</span><span>s illustrated in the excellent film <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0119177/" target="_blank">Gattaca</a> – that </span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/15/science/environmental-dna-ethics-privacy.html" target="_blank">DNA is already everywhere</a><span>. You shed it in flakes of skin wherever you go. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>But that's the point! As shown in that flick, collection and decipherment of our DNA will be trivial and </span>banning all that <span>is a mug's game. What matters - </span><span>a point I’ve been pushing since the 1990s, in </span><a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/transparentsociety.html" target="_blank">The Transparent Society</a><span> and elsewhere - is that </span><i>hiding</i><span> will neither preserve privacy nor</span> <i>prevent your data being used against you</i>. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">But what matters is not blinding others; it is preventing others from using your information to <i>harm you. </i>There <i>is</i> a possible solution, then. Not by hiding, but by aggressively ripping the veils away from malefactors who might do that sort of thing! </span></p></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com194tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-28524240544354488412023-12-09T16:05:00.000-08:002023-12-09T19:05:46.474-08:00Yet more science! A year-end update of amazements.<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">What drives leaps in technological innovation? Just posted on my secondary blog: I discuss how <a href="https://davidbrin.wordpress.com/2023/10/05/does-government-funded-science-play-a-role-in-stimulating-innovation/" target="_blank">government-funded science plays a role in stimulating innovation</a>. An ultimate refutation to the hypnotic incantation that <i>all-government-is-useless-all-the-time</i>.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And as a terrific example... <b>The universe at your fingertips!</b> This zoomable <a href="https://www.digitaltrends.com/space/james-webb-groth-strip-visualization/" target="_blank">image from the James Webb Space Telescope</a> lets you explore galaxies - and travel backward in time to see how these galaxies were long ago. </span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== Marvels of our planet ==</span></b></p><p class="p12" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">In the secret world below Antarctic sea ice, salty frozen fingers descend. Called <a href="https://www.iflscience.com/the-icy-fingers-of-death-that-creep-beneath-the-frozen-antarctic-68416" target="_blank">brinicles</a>, they may be like hydrothermal vents. But creatures of the deep, beware: anything caught in the path of a brinicle will be frozen alive. So beware the Brinicles!</span></p><p class="p12" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p12" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>This </span><a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2023/07/18/drones-track-whales-ocean-alliance-lon-orig.cnn" target="_blank">drone video of whales</a><span> is terrific! As are the drone innovations by my friend Iain Kerr and Ocean Alliance, finding innovative ways to do non-invasive science on whales who might be key to reviving our oceans-in-peril.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p13" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>With only one-quarter of the sea floor mapped with sonar, it is impossible to know </span><a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/it-s-just-mind-boggling-more-19-000-undersea-volcanoes-discovered" target="_blank">how many seamounts exist</a><span>. But radar satellites that measure ocean height can also find them, by looking for subtle signs of seawater mounding above a hidden seamount, tugged by its gravity. A 2011 census using the method found more than 24,000. High-resolution radar data have now added more than 19,000 new ones.</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== Environmental news ==</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXJ9tbuYMA-k8R4DrD89mTvhSdZyMGQVHdn8zdMzQVW8c96PgJlNdN64xDGVD_PpCZq5AtFUZ-JHMetFQerwgZEON-PsFpO-if4bb8ABBsg_YPJFXFWstx-J1WBWtLcg3zCjbX8beDT95n-cDZb1DwRwrCpkc2WoLUa2YakvsMa6Agd5gbnA/s937/SCIENCE.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="937" data-original-width="698" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXJ9tbuYMA-k8R4DrD89mTvhSdZyMGQVHdn8zdMzQVW8c96PgJlNdN64xDGVD_PpCZq5AtFUZ-JHMetFQerwgZEON-PsFpO-if4bb8ABBsg_YPJFXFWstx-J1WBWtLcg3zCjbX8beDT95n-cDZb1DwRwrCpkc2WoLUa2YakvsMa6Agd5gbnA/s320/SCIENCE.png" width="238" /></a></div>In my novel <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/existence.html" target="_blank">Existence</a> I posited that we’ll face a severe crisis over Phosphorus. Illustrated by a plot point that men - yes, male human citizens - in 2040 will be called upon, by law, to pee in phos recovery urinals! Or else... onto the flower beds outside your house, in lieu of store-bought fertilizer – that’s okay too. </span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Now a company (did they read the novel?) has <a href="https://apple.news/AwQ1JOs2zRfuSz7czRNLirw" target="_blank">pioneered a method to (perhaps) remove and recover phosphorus from solid municipal waste</a> without adding chemicals, using ‘electromechanical devices.” And if we did this at high scale it would also help save small seas like the Med & Black and Caribbean from fertilizer death. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">This is the kind of thing that pops up almost monthly, where nerds may be saving the planet, and us all. Despite the mad cult-ingrates who have it in for ‘high IQ stoopidpeople.’</span><p></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>Only now this:</span><span class="Apple-converted-space"> <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/great-news-eu-hails-discovery-of-massive-phosphate-rock-deposit-in-norway/?" target="_blank">Massive phosphate rock deposits discovered in Norway</a>. </span><span>Wow, lucky Norway: First beautiful fjords, then vast oil reserves, and gorgeous people... and now - it seems - large amounts of the phosphate rock that I fretted about, in </span><a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/existence.html" target="_blank">Existence</a><span>. If true, then maybe (male) men <i>won't</i> have to all pee into phos-recovery urinals by 2035. And the King of Morocco won't own the world, after all. A case of I'd rather be wrong.</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Seeking new strategies... testing is underway to determine if <a href="https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/12/the-quest-to-turn-basalt-dust-into-a-viable-climate-solution/" target="_blank">sprinkling volcanic rock dust on farmland</a> can help remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. </span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: arial;"><b>== Earth History == </b></span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>Researchers have discovered that Earth’s tectonic plate movements cause sea levels to rise and fall in 36-million-year cycles,</span><a href="https://scitechdaily.com/scientists-discover-astonishing-36-million-year-geological-cycle-that-triggers-bursts-of-biodiversity/" target="_blank"> indirectly triggering biodiversity</a><span> bursts, at least re: ocean life. These cycles, altering shallow sea and shelf habitats, are found to significantly shape marine life diversity over millions of years, challenging previous notions of species evolution.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><span>“The cycles are 36 million years long because of regular patterns in how tectonic plates are recycled into the convecting mantle, the mobile part of the deep Earth, similar to hot, thick soup in a pot, that moves slowly.”</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p6" style="color: #424242; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s2" style="color: black;">A <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/07/18/1188275701/this-fossil-of-a-mammal-biting-a-dinosaur-captures-a-death-battles-final-moments" target="_blank">fossil discovery</a> </span>shakes our traditional view of the Cretaceous Era as being all dinosaur domination and cowering mammal submission. It suggests a more complex ancient food web in which certain dinosaurs were prey and some mammals were predators.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>Finally, while we fret over the Anthropocene and humanity making this planet much less habitable… possibly leading to our own extinction… a recurring side topic is <i>“are we leaving any lasting traces, that might be noticed by later – presumably wiser – archaeologists or paleontologists – either successors or visitors?"</i></span><span class="Apple-converted-space"><i> </i> </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><br /></span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>It’s a topic I weighed-into, when I was lead pundit for a popular History Channel show called “</span><a href="https://www.history.com/shows/life-after-people" target="_blank">Life After People</a><span>,” contemplating what might remain of our vaunted civilization, one minute, or a day, a year, century, millennium and eon after we – for some reason – vanished from the scene.</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">This article from Nautilus - <a href="https://nautil.us/could-an-industrial-civilization-have-predated-humans-on-earth-352964/" target="_blank">Could an industrial civilization have predated humans on Earth?</a> - just the latest in a long series of such speculations… rightly concludes that our isotopic residue, if nothing else, would certainly blare that humans were here on Earth.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>And thin but pronounced sedimentary layers of plastics. Our cities (covering just 1% of surface area) might be missed, but likely not the extensive network of roadways. But have fun speculating!</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com178tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-91056752569607397852023-12-02T15:57:00.000-08:002023-12-03T16:20:56.854-08:00The obsession with historical "cycles - and the coming 'hero generation!' <p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Again and again, I keep encountering <i><u>time</u> fetishes </i>that correlate with political ones.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">For example, traditional Marxists tended toward <i>teleology</i>, belief that civilization has an inevitable course, propelledtoward inevitable outcomes by class war and by ever-increasing industrial production. Though today's 'leftists' wouldn't know anything about that - I have yet to meet one - even one - who could describe old Karl's historical patterns or future extrapolations. Or what he <i>actually</i> said about capitalism. Nor, indeed, do they ever put any of today's passions in a context of 6000 years. (A very badly needed context!)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">On the other hand, they are positive <i>geniuses</i> compared to today's Mad Right. And I mean all of it, from the world oligarchy of casino mafiosi, hedge squires, oil sheiks, Kremlin "ex"-commissars, techie preppers, mandarins and inheritance brats, all the way down to your frenzied MAGA uncle, who dreams that wreaking McVeigh-ngeance on nerds will somehow make <i>him</i> superior to all those smartypants 'fact' users. Nearly all members of that reactionary cult wallow in the <i>same</i> macro-delusion...</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">...<i>cyclical history. </i> WIthout actually knowing anything about those 6000+ years, they cling to fantasies that <i>"We've all been here before. And this phase will bring my decadent foes crashing down, just like..."</i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">... just like, what? Well, there's the rub.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== Let's get into those patterns and 'cycles' ==</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> While there is zero evidence for 'cycles,' h<span style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;">istory does show some basic 'attractor states'... above all a tendency for human males to do many of the same tiresome things that almost <i>ALL other males</i> do, in <i>nature</i>...</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;">... which is <i>take advantage of any opportunity to monopolize reproductive success</i> at the expense of other males. (Pick almost any animal type; that is the most visible and garish intra-species struggle, though taking a wide variety of competitive modes, from violence to 'gaudy plumage.')</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"> In humans, this Darwinian tendency manifested - with the arrival of agriculture and towns - in 8000 years of varied forms of <i>feudalism</i>, wherein gangs of bullies smashed all potential competitors, while taking other men's women and wheat. (8000 years ago especially, there was a <i>huge</i> event, a 'Y-chromosome bottleneck when - as told by DNA - for a few centuries only about 15% of male humans reproduced! Look it up.)</span></span></p><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>A strong argument can be made that </span>feudalism - in the varied types that dominated 99% of those 80 centuries - is the most 'natural' human governance mode. Certainly <i>every</i> generation features SOBs trying hard to re-impose it! (Including each <a href="https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2014/09/phases-of-american-civil-war.html" target="_blank">phase of the U.S. Civil War</a>; we're now in phase #8.)</span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Alas, while it may be the 'natural attractor state' - (we're <i>all</i> descended from those cruel harems, folks) - it's also true that <i>feudalism has proved <u>always</u> to be crappy at governance!</i> </span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Look at that awful litany of horrors called... <i>history!</i> Even good kings - and there were some! - barely budged the needle, seldom encouraged real progress, and almost always left things to idiot sons or grandsons to f___ up. This happened - <i>always -</i> because autocratic rule suppresses the one thing that allows discovery and correction of<i> leader delusions and errors</i>...</span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">That one thing was - and remains - <i>reciprocally accountable criticism</i>. The ability of critics to point out leadership errors, before they become lethal, and then argue out alternative, based on facts.</span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>That</i> trait - suppression of error-discovery criticism -is why almost all feudal regimes <i>governed terribly!</i> Leading to that litany of horrors called <i>history.</i></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i><br /></i></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== Is there a way out? ==</b></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><i><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii-V6aIsmQ1QnoMP76FBNv9cRi02IUW5RfZ40BzA_MODsRVRmrhlo_GhpWvhtSpJ4Muz_WNTBn9t1ooF46TXBWlXuC_cf5zByP0FFsAw0iGIljWl9PvRTIrfSEU-IUJanJbJiRVVIM3Viqr8J2c948bEWE22zQx4G1ok48xeCAYeiUnj7Xww/s930/CYCLES-HISTORY.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="930" data-original-width="699" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii-V6aIsmQ1QnoMP76FBNv9cRi02IUW5RfZ40BzA_MODsRVRmrhlo_GhpWvhtSpJ4Muz_WNTBn9t1ooF46TXBWlXuC_cf5zByP0FFsAw0iGIljWl9PvRTIrfSEU-IUJanJbJiRVVIM3Viqr8J2c948bEWE22zQx4G1ok48xeCAYeiUnj7Xww/s320/CYCLES-HISTORY.png" width="241" /></a></div>Humans <i>did</i> find an alternative to this trap! A rare one! Indeed, one that was perhaps so unlikely that we may be the only ones in the galaxy to stumble into it! (One of my top five theories for the Fermi Paradox!) </span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">That alternative mode of governance - the Enlightenment Experiment - is very good at fostering corrective, fact-using criticism! And it works. Flattened societies that allow free-fair-open competition <i>always</i> do better - by orders of magnitude - discovering errors and exploiting opportunities. </span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>These 'enlightenment' departures from kingship/lordship were starkly rare! </i>One experiment in ancient times - <i>Periclean Athens</i> - stunned all the surrounding kingdoms and oligarchies... till those surrounding, macho-lordly realms swarmed in to crush it. </span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">- <i>Renaissance Florence</i> fell the same way, after its burst of glory drew savage response from terrified autarchies. </span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">- <i>Amsterdam</i> barely survived the same feudal attacks... but endured to spread seeds leading to 3 centuries of spectacular successes! </span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Success that oligarchies have since tried to destroy <i>every generation</i>, including a major attempted putsch <i>as we speak</i>.</span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== Qualifying my praise of Enlightenment Society ==</b></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">I go into a lot of this - and especially the role played by modern mythic systems - in <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/vividtomorrows.html" target="_blank">Vivid Tomorrows: Science Fiction and Hollywood</a>. </span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">But still, for honesty's sake: let me stipulate <i>two flaws</i> to the prodigiously more fair, scientific, progressive, creative, free and fun enlightenment approach - flaws that we have yet to solve:</span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34);">1. The </span></span><i><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34);">criticism habit can metastasize! It can </span></span></i><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34);">become cancerous to society - as it did in post Periclean Athens - when </span></span><i style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><a href="http://tinyurl.com/wrathaddicts" target="_blank">sanctimony becomes a drug abused by all sides</a>, robbing criticism of its corrective value, devolving it into rituals of hate.</i></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">2. Much of that enlightenment progress - correcting countless past injustices, for example - came at an incremental pace we now view as appallingly, horrifically slow! </span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Though far faster than any other, recalcitrant human society.</span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== Can we get back to those cycles of history? ==</b></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Why did I just go into that? Because <i>all of it is ignored by the simplistic political cults out there</i>... 'Marxists' who know nothing about Marx... the <i>non</i>-Marxist left, who believe their (mostly laudable!) liberal reformist demands somehow erupted from their own brows, instead of from hard increments, won by ten preceding generations... </span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">...and especially today's <i>flaming-rightists</i> whose uber-favorite book, nowadays, is called <i><a href="https://amzn.to/417Fwto" target="_blank">The Fourth Turning</a></i>, by Strauss & Howe<i> --</i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"> an exercise in mesmerizing pareidolia that's especially alluring for folks on that side of the aisle. </span></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></div><div style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">And yes, 4T is a pile of historical/teleological nonsense, utter hogwqash that caters - like porn - to the desperate need of conservatives for 'cycles'. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">(Confederates, Nazis, you name the fascist cult; they all throw themselves at cycle-fetishism in one form or another.)</span></span></div><div dir="ltr" gmail_original="1"><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">It's always lurked there on the right. But <a href="https://amzn.to/417Fwto"><i>The</i> <i>Fourth Turning</i></a> cult is part of a final phase, toxic frenzy. It has so many former Goldwater conservatives - now fervent or uncomfortable Trumpists - salivating for a coming Grand Crisis. Worse, many are eagerly helping to bring one about!</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Carumba, I don't have time to describe this quasi-religious tract that uses Bible-style incantations plus pseudo-sci mumbo jumbo to cram American history - somehow in isolation from the world(!) - into a perfect 80 year pattern of four generational personalities: each cycle or 'turning' concluding with an admirable 'hero generation' of the US Revolution, the Civil War, WWII... </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">...and <i>now</i> the millennials + Gen-Z'ers are gonna have to step up to fulfill that ordained heroic role!</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">I know more history than most folks - (it's typical of sci fi authors, actually) - and I fail to see <i>any</i> correlation between The Fourth Turning (4T) BS and <i>any</i> aspect of American life! Howe's fabulations are based upon <i>stories</i> about vast and varied, borderless populations of individuals, stereotyping them as monotone 'generations.' Even the Boomers - who might be said to have some recognizable 'generational' demographics - overlap with these traits of Howe's <i>only</i> if you squint hard, after pouring lemon juice in your eyes.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Take young people, in their twenties. The ones I've met certainly do seem generally <i>nicer</i> than most boomers were, I'll avow. Much less sex-frantic and more diversity comfortable... </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>...but <i>so </i></span><i>now </i><i>are half of those same boomers!</i> Half of the Boomers <i>you</i> know, in fact, are nicer than they used to be! Those millions laid the groundwork for every 'heroic' thing the the 4T cultists expect from my poor kids. So... maybe we grew up a bit <i>together?</i></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== Okay, let me conclude by giving into grouchy temptation! ==</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">In fact, if I may be indulged a brief, old-fart-grumble? The one trait that I see -- pan-spectrum -- among young people -- a quality that <i>does</i> seem somewhat 'generational' -- is a wee bit of a cult belief in <i>fragility</i>. That mere <i>words</i> might wound someone so deeply that there's no recovery, no walking it off, no chance of toughing out the 'verbal trauma' and moving on.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> Hey, this trend is rooted in a good impulse! Because it <i>can</i> happen! People are vulnerable and resilient across a vast range. I'd say 10% of folks were never able to 'tough it out and move on' after mere verbal triggers - not in olden times and not now. We <i>should </i>change our ways, every year, to be more kind! </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">We <i>should</i> move toward a diversity that includes allowances that <i>some</i> folks don't benefit from 'walking it off'! </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">But a <i>majority?</i> Of... the toughest species the world ever saw?</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> No, no, girls and boys and others. That person you see in the mirror is likely a whole LOT more resilient than this generational <i>fragility-</i>incantation encourages you to believe! (And yes,</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">and it correlates with video-playing physical passivity.)</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Kids, <i>you are descended from all those heroes of history who had things far worse than you do. Every generation overflowed with 'heroes' who</i> picked themselves up, brushed themselves off and then strove to make the world better. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>Not perfect! But </span><i>better-enough</i><span> for <i>you</i> to now improve it, further-still!</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Especially if... according to all that Fourth Turning cycles blather... YOU are gonna have to be the scheduled Hero Generation! </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">If that <i>is</i> your destiny - because idiots deliberately incite a 'crisis' to fit their cult incantations - then sure. You be heroes! </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">I know you've got it in you.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">So do I.</span></div></div><div dir="ltr" gmail_original="1"><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com199tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-41336492179145683632023-11-25T15:55:00.000-08:002023-11-26T14:21:50.583-08:00Space resources and advances... plus aliens & ufos, oh my!<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><span><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><b>Okay SPAAAACE-time.</b> </span></span></span>To the chagrin of those trying to destroy our confidence, we keep doing fine and wonderful things! </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white;">Let's begin</span><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505;"> with my own milestone... </span><span>after 12 years in the funnest gig ever, I just attended (in Houston) my last Symposium for </span><a href="https://www.nasa.gov/stmd-the-nasa-innovative-advanced-concepts-niac/" target="_blank">NASA's Innovative & Advanced Concepts program - (NIAC)</a><span> - as a member of the External Council watching (and critiquing!) presentations about some of the coolest (and often weird) just-barely-plausible projects that NASA has deemed worthy of small-scale seed grant support.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Cool stuff! Look up the wide range of bold concepts, from several revolutionary kinds of space telescope to Venus gliders that move through the thick haze like manta rays. Or propelling spacecraft by firing fuel pellets at em, from behind! Or several kinds of stimulated isotope nuclear rockets, safer and cheaper than other nukes, but also much faster than chemical ones. From Mars habitats built of algae to a portable pharmacy that might make any drug on demand.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b></b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; white-space-collapse: preserve;"> You can either read up on past projects or catch the Symposium recorded free, at the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/technology/" target="_blank">NIAC site</a>. </span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><b><br /></b></span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><b>== How asteroids may offer wealth - or threats.... ==</b></span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; white-space-collapse: preserve;">NASA just <a href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/psyche" target="_blank">launched the Psyche spacecraft</a> aboard a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket - on its journey to the unique metal-rich asteroid, Psyche. Data from this mission could advance plans for future asteroid mining. Headlines that Psyche is worth "quadrillions of dollars" of course neglect the fact that - after a few measly thousands of tons of gold and platinum harvested to Earth - prices would collapse and you'd be using gold foil to wrap sandwiches. <i>(Now, I wonder which parties here on Earth would not like their mines to go obsolete? And hence pushed for the silly-useless"Artemis" distraction-"race" to re-do Apollo footprint stunts on a vast plain of useless, poison lunar dust?)</i></span></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; white-space-collapse: preserve;">The first asteroid sample has been returned to Earth; the <a href="https://www.space.com/osiris-rex-asteroid-sample-passes-goal" target="_blank">sample capsule from the OSIRIS-REx mission to asteroid Bennu</a> was retrieved after landing in the Utah desert. Samples are being analyzed at the Johnson Space Center. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Meanwhile, the asteroid-defense foundation, <a href="https://b612foundation.org/" target="_blank">B612</a> – helping track potentially devastating rocks out there - has launched the <a href="https://www.schweickartprize.org/" target="_blank">Schweickart Prize</a> - honoring Apollo 9 & Skylab astronaut Rusty Schweickart’s contributions to space exploration and planetary defense across a 60-year career. The $10,000 award aims to stimulate graduate student contributions to planetary defense and advancement of humanity's cosmic journey, safeguarding our transition into the wider cosmos. Awardees will also receive a </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; white-space-collapse: preserve;"><a style="color: #385898; cursor: pointer;" tabindex="-1"></a></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #050505; white-space-collapse: preserve;">museum-quality meteorite. Not just technical advances qualify! Also in fields of <i>policy and education</i> about this existential purpose.</span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span> <b>And if that weren't enough</b>... almost <i>daily</i> we get incredible wonders from the utterly intricate James Webb and its partner </span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">telescopes, in space and on Earth, some of them mentioned in my last posting about space.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And meanwhile, recovery (with stunning pinpoint accuracy) of perfect asteroid samples, brought back across (literally) a <i>billion miles?</i> The Curiosity and Perseverance rovers doing dazzling Mars science accompanied by a spectacular little helicopter? And that's just marvels we've accomplished in Space!</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There's far, far more down here on Earth. Making pessimism kinda... well... one of the dumber attitudes even remotely possible.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== Fermi Redux. I stand by prevalence of Life! Just not folks with starships ==</span></b></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span class="s7" style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;">First. </span><span style="color: #121212; font-family: arial;">Way fun stuff by John Michael Godier about the most isolated human tribe on Earth… the Sentinelese… and whether they exist in a version of the “</span><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRiItYUF2Ow" target="_blank">Zoo Hypothesis” for the Fermi Paradox</a><span style="color: #121212;">. Of course, Isaac Arthur has probaly 30+ videos dissecting the same topic in great detail... that I don't always agree-with! But certainly fascinating riffs!</span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;">An interesting and cogent </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcInt58juL4" style="font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;" target="_blank">video about the Fermi Paradox</a><span style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;"> by charismatic astrophysicist David Kipping is informative and entertaining. Alas, it is also… ultimately… deeply wrongheaded.</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Oh, surely something is depressing the observability of interstellar (IS) civilizations… and as I stated in my 1983 paper – the first that really tried to appraise the range of ‘fermi proposals’ to explain the Great Silence – there are dozens of possibilities, ranging to “They are out there, just hard to notice.”</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVV8_S8zH0z5-BmpY0IJTptWFWrptwgV2k9RVHr1lAm3RxeLp5RilzjgaCICXfesNUkXIZxCLzgbE-u0ulPHysxF1oD6uDkrkG86xVIlwetRM5yXqLEoI2y0uP6Imnucn3W0uHhCf9mW9eX3JvvXHdMRQfuwbBvYwY8imkM0ksuYHAkLhMWQ/s915/DrakeEquation.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="686" data-original-width="915" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVV8_S8zH0z5-BmpY0IJTptWFWrptwgV2k9RVHr1lAm3RxeLp5RilzjgaCICXfesNUkXIZxCLzgbE-u0ulPHysxF1oD6uDkrkG86xVIlwetRM5yXqLEoI2y0uP6Imnucn3W0uHhCf9mW9eX3JvvXHdMRQfuwbBvYwY8imkM0ksuYHAkLhMWQ/s320/DrakeEquation.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></span></div><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;">This fellow’s argument is that LIFE may be the key factor and that the existence of living material on Earth might be the statistical fluke. He goes on, claiming we have no idea what f(L) in the Drake equation must be. And he does poke at some logical fallacies that eager folks often lean upon, to support their faith in Otherness.</span></span></span></p><p></p><p><span style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.1px;">Still, while that his claim of “we don’t know F(L)” is true, his ‘hence life on Earth is likely a fluke’ is unsupportable.</span></p><p><span style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.1px;">In fact, ever since the Miller-Orgel-Urey or MOU experiments of the 60s, each successive stage of self-assembly of organic molecules toward life-like complexity has fallen in the laboratory with rapidity, each being lab-emulated within the next five years or so. Step by step by step, we have not found a next-level of complexity or pre-life that would be statistically hard for a planet-ocean-organic-soup to achieve. Oh, sure, that proves nothing. The <i>next</i> one beyond our horizon might turn out to be the truly hard and rare one! The one that leaves Earth to be uniquely and lucky!</span></p><p><span style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.1px;">(For appraisal of every variety of "Gaia Hypothesis -- weak, medium, strong and <i>hyper</i>-strong(!) see my novel <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/earth.html" target="_blank">EARTH</a>, which should have a new edition out, in January!)</span></p><p><span style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Still, the steady series of easy steps beyond MOU cannot be ignored. It has <i>meaning</i> in arranging a general sense of how the universe is trending, in her revelations, via science.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span class="s8" style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;">Things start getting more interesting when Kipping finally gets to an actual issue with “life started quickly” on this planet. That would certainly seem to imply it happened <i>easily!</i> He wriggles kinda cleverly, to anthropically dismiss that argument, in a way that’s </span><span class="s9" style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px; text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration: underline;">both</span><span class="s8" style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;"> cute and…</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;">…and also BS, since there are many other stars that have longer lifespans than ours while still not too dissimilar to Sol.</span><span style="color: #231e1a;"> </span> <span style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;">A G5 star will last twice as long without differing in any (likely to be) crucial ways.</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">And this leaves out the real reason why life pretty much has to be all over the place. The fact that almost <i>every</i> star you see in the sky – even binaries or multiples or unstable flare stars – whatever -<i> likely has planets,</i> including several Europa-type bodies nearby with <i>liquid water oceans covered by ice roofs.</i> </span></span></p><p><span style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Moreover, each new solar system apparently begins with trillions of icy comets, which start off (likely) with <i>molten</i>, salty, electrified interiors. That is a <i>lot</i> of test tubes for biogenesis!</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><span style="font-size: medium;">And let’s not even get started on panspermia.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;">Sound like I disagree with Dr. Kipping? In fact, I’m not disagreeing with his overall notion that Interstellar civilizations may be rare! What’s very hard to support is his focus on F(L) as the likeliest culprit.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;">In fact, let me flip and say I do believe that it is very plausibly arguable that the number of extant high tech civilizations is low! Because, while F(L) seems (tentatively) likely to be high - F(I) and F(c) very likely <i>are low!</i> </span> <span style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;">In fact, my top-ranked “fermi” is that human level sapience has evolved in this galaxy only occasionally, tech civ even more rarely...</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #231e1a; font-family: arial; letter-spacing: 0.1px;">... and tech civilizations that escape the lobotomizing trap of <i>feudalism</i> - (the ubiquitous historical failure mode that is rearing up - yet again as we speak - to destroy us) - are probably nearly nonexistent.</span></span></p><p class="p16" style="color: #231e1a; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 15px 0px;"><span class="s8" style="letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>That</i> is where we are very likely a fluke. At least it ranks way up there on my list.</span></span></p><p class="p16" style="color: #231e1a; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 15px 0px;"><span class="s8" style="letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p16" style="color: #231e1a; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 15px 0px;"><span class="s8" style="letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== As for those<i> freaking UFOs?</i> ==</b></span></span></p><p class="p16" style="color: #231e1a; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 15px 0px;"><span class="s8" style="letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Yeah yeah. Twice every decade since I was a child, these manias have recurred, always the same insipid nonsense and the same absolute paucvity of anything remotely plausible. Well... see my posting:</span></span></p><p class="p16" style="color: #231e1a; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 15px 0px;"><span class="s8" style="letter-spacing: 0.1px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2021/07/whats-really-up-with-uaps-ufos.html" target="_blank">What's really up with UAPs/UFOs?</a></span></span></p><p class="p16" style="color: #231e1a; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 15px 0px;"><span class="s8" style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: 0.1px;">Grrr. even if they were 'real', we still oughta snub the nasty things!</span></p><p class="p16" style="color: #231e1a; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 15px 0px;"><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
.
...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com185tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-28241452775187650862023-11-20T17:17:00.000-08:002023-11-22T07:57:40.237-08:00What JoeB oughta do right now... and your annual appeal to use your PROXY POWER!<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; white-space: pre-wrap;">This posting got delayed for many reasons. But the first of several topics won't wait. Because next week is <a href="https://www.givingtuesday.org/" target="_blank"><i>Giving Tuesday!</i> </a></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; white-space: pre-wrap;">So first off...</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; white-space: pre-wrap;">Each year I talk about <b><a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/proxyactivism.html" target="_blank">proxy activism</a>. </b>The best way you can, with minimal fuss or even <i>attention,</i> help to save the world (or do good things) by helping <i>others</i> to save the world <i>for you!</i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; white-space: pre-wrap;">Here is an excerpt from a web page where you can <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/proxyactivism.html" target="_blank">learn much more</a>:</span></p><blockquote style="border: medium; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: normal; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; orphans: 2; outline: currentcolor; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><b style="box-sizing: border-box; outline: currentcolor;"></b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><b style="box-sizing: border-box; outline: currentcolor;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqT185sBeaLOw3N7RIOWd602zI12u9f9fzTnUQqmGNgmzFCgtzFCzHjJ6yF0IvU3chwDFlrBEebRienvwAQBXWnyg7-Q01QFwm06RnLV464Qio6-AEwnBlYwe0XBLq8vMJDiS6SOsHMX4Qj2n_61885d4Gft1UyC_SSMgRIf-XWGEGEBbyug/s834/proxy-power-activism-philanthropy.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="834" data-original-width="628" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqT185sBeaLOw3N7RIOWd602zI12u9f9fzTnUQqmGNgmzFCgtzFCzHjJ6yF0IvU3chwDFlrBEebRienvwAQBXWnyg7-Q01QFwm06RnLV464Qio6-AEwnBlYwe0XBLq8vMJDiS6SOsHMX4Qj2n_61885d4Gft1UyC_SSMgRIf-XWGEGEBbyug/w217-h288/proxy-power-activism-philanthropy.png" width="217" /></a></b></span></div><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"><b style="box-sizing: border-box; outline: currentcolor;">Proxy Power is the uniquely convenient — but seldom discussed — ability of a modern person to participate in activism... helping to change or improve the world... by the simple expedience of <u>joining some group</u> that is already vigorously pursuing that part of your personal agenda.</b> </span> <p></p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: medium; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: normal; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; orphans: 2; outline: currentcolor; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">It's simple: you add both your membership dues <i style="box-sizing: border-box; outline: currentcolor;">and</i> the political impact of your membership, in order to get behind people who are striving to save the world <i style="box-sizing: border-box; outline: currentcolor;">for</i> you.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: normal; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; orphans: 2; outline: currentcolor; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">There is a wide and eclectic variety of such organizations to choose from. The groups that you select will, presumably, contain passionate and well-informed people who agitate — or act — in ways that are explicitly laid out in the group's magazine or web site. Hence, you can know in advance how well their program matches your own hopes and goals for the world.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: normal; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; orphans: 2; outline: currentcolor; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Of course, millions of people already do this. (I deem these NGOs one of the greatest inventions of the 20th Century - and Vlad Putin hates em!)</span> </p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: medium; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: normal; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; orphans: 2; outline: currentcolor; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;"> In fact, the expansive range of activist organizations can be looked upon as a vast market place, selling options on a better world. Every person's own list of memberships will be different, reflecting a particular — or peculiar — set of values and concerns. A set that can adjust yearly, depending on the individual's passion...(environment? space? poor kids? civil liberties?) ...and available cash.</span> </p></blockquote><blockquote style="border: medium; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-ligatures: normal; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; orphans: 2; outline: currentcolor; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">Millions of dollars in membership dues pour through organizations that range from <em style="box-sizing: border-box; outline: currentcolor;">The Sierra Club</em> and <em style="box-sizing: border-box; outline: currentcolor;">Habitat for Humanity</em> to <i>The Planetary Society</i> to the ACLU and<i> Electronic Frontier</i>, from <i>Donors Choose</i> to <em style="box-sizing: border-box; outline: currentcolor;">Doctors without Borders</em>, empowering and encouraging these groups to keep fighting or doing good works... </span><span style="font-family: times; font-size: x-small;">(continues)</span></p></blockquote><p><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-variant-ligatures: normal; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; orphans: 2; outline: currentcolor; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b style="font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;">Seriously, </b><span style="font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;">you can design your list of proxy NGOs to suit all <i>your</i> notions of a better world, efforts that are world, national, or local! (Example:<a href="https://projectmercybaja.org" target="_blank"> here's one</a> helping expand a crowded elementary school in Tijuana and adding adult education.)</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-variant-ligatures: normal; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; orphans: 2; outline: currentcolor; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Again, if <i>you</i> have priorities, then someone is working on exactly that. <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/proxyactivism.html" target="_blank">Scan the Proxy Power site for suggestions</a>. But I have confidence you can find more. Ask yourself: "What is a better world <i>worth to me?"</i></span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-variant-ligatures: normal; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; orphans: 2; outline: currentcolor; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: medium;">And speaking of saving the world...</span></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-variant-ligatures: normal; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; orphans: 2; outline: currentcolor; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"><b style="font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-variant-ligatures: normal; line-height: 23px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; orphans: 2; outline: currentcolor; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"><b style="font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-size: medium;">== Back to political perspectives, starting with <i>what Biden should do NOW!</i> ==</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; white-space: pre-wrap;">President Biden turns 81 today. And okay, his <i>age</i> is all folks talk about, trying to divide the only coalition that stands any chance of saving our nation and world. Only dig it: <i>I don't care if he naps!</i> He appointed 10,000 skilled, smart and honest folks to replace 10,000 shills and crooks and Kremlin-agent Trumpists. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;">That's issue #1 for me. </span><span style="font-family: arial; white-space: pre-wrap;">With Austin, Blinken etc on the job, and the intel/FBI/military officer corps now back to doing their jobs, I can sleep nights. And yeah, Kamala too. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">But sure, let's confront the age issue head on. </span></span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">HERE'S WHAT JOBEE SHOULD SAY: </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"> <i>"Okay it's totally legit to question whether age affects my sharpness. And so, especially after watching the GOP clown-car 'debates', I want to show that not all politicians are raving ninnies. So let's have Democratic party primary debates! </i></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>"For one thing, the contrast will be stunning. It will show how <u>deep</u> our bench is, stuffed with cogent adults from many generations and regions, arguing policy with courtesy and wisdom. </i></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>"Sure I plan to be the nominee! But should we turn down <u>free air time</u> and a great platform to show how we Democrats overflow with vigorous, smart NON-clowns? And how we talk real issues, like saving the planet and repairing infrastructure and respecting science and advancing justice and bringing manufacturing back to America, amid the best economy in 40 years? </i></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">"So, bring it, kids! Let's have fun showing the nation how grownups argue and learn from each other, with courtesy, mutual respect, humor and wisdom!"</span></i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">What an opportunity that would be, for a win-win-win. If only.</span></span></p><div><div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>== The totally intentional mess in the U.S. Congress ==</b></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><br /></b></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Oh, but what a clown car the party of Lincoln, Ike and Goldwater* has become!!</span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">As I write this, the insane cluster-f**** in the House of Representatives continues, as the slim Republican majority - achieved through cheats like gerrymandering - continues to obey their fundamental dictum -- </span></span><span style="background-color: white; orphans: 2; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><i>"Never negotiate, never govern, never legislate, never lead"</i> vow that has been the core of the GOP ever since 1996, when Dennis "friend to boys" Hastert (Jim Jordan's mentor) ruled that no Republican may ever again do those things. </span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; orphans: 2; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; orphans: 2; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;">IDEALLY the way out would be to end gerrymandering so primaries, dominated by </span><span style="orphans: 2; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;"><a style="cursor: pointer;" tabindex="-1"></a></span><span style="background-color: white; orphans: 2; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;">partisan radicals, would no longer empower radical cultists to bully representatives into mania. </span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; orphans: 2; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;">IDEALLY light would drive the blackmailed out of politics. </span></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; orphans: 2; white-space: pre-wrap; widows: 2;">IDEALLY a large segment of 'decent' Republicans would split off from the madness, the way Liz Cheney did, and save something of American conservatism, before it is too late. </span></span></div><div dir="auto" style="background-color: white; font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2;"><div class="x1iorvi4 x1pi30zi x1l90r2v x1swvt13" data-ad-comet-preview="message" data-ad-preview="message" id=":r1ff:" style="padding: 4px 16px 16px;"><div class="x78zum5 xdt5ytf xz62fqu x16ldp7u" style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; margin-bottom: -5px; margin-top: -5px;"><div class="xu06os2 x1ok221b" style="margin-bottom: 5px; margin-top: 5px;"><span class="x193iq5w xeuugli x13faqbe x1vvkbs xlh3980 xvmahel x1n0sxbx x1lliihq x1s928wv xhkezso x1gmr53x x1cpjm7i x1fgarty x1943h6x x4zkp8e x3x7a5m x6prxxf xvq8zen xo1l8bm xzsf02u x1yc453h" dir="auto" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; display: block; line-height: 1.3333; max-width: 100%; min-width: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word;"><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Won't happen? I know. But there IS a maneuver that might at least help bandaid the current mess!</span></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Put up to a vote a <i>temporary house rule</i> allowing motions & votes to - <i>for just two months</i> - be done by SECRET BALLOT! </span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">For just those two months, the decent 20% of GOP lawmakers... plus maybe another 50% who at least aren't <i>utterly</i> crazy or Putin-blackmailed... would be free to negotiate and pass essential bills with Democrats, while retaining a way to tell their radicals: "Who... ME?"</span></div></div><div class="x11i5rnm xat24cr x1mh8g0r x1vvkbs xtlvy1s x126k92a" style="margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; white-space: pre-wrap;"><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">It's a simple, procedural workaround... and the rule change would require only some guts and patriotism from just a dozen or so 'decent republicans'... allowing the rest of 2023 to see stuff actually done, on our behalf.</span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">There are SO many other tactics that might shift the current chest-to-chest thumping and preening that has replaced actual, negotiated politics in the USA.</span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">If anyone out there is interested in trying some <i>agile</i> toctics, my book remains (alas!) just as relevant as when I wrote it. </span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">See <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/polemicaljudo.html" target="_blank">Polemical Judo</a>, by David Brin, if you are among those who still reads.</span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">=====</span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: x-small;">* Did you know that the State of Arizona draws 17.3% of its electrical power from the <i>spinning</i> in Barry Goldwater's grave? </span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: x-small;">(Yeah, I made that one up! Colbert call me! ;-)</span></div></div></span></div></div></div></div><div><br /></div></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com201tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-87520155691756476782023-11-14T11:39:00.000-08:002023-11-16T11:33:09.707-08:00More 'prophetic'(?) extracts from Earth...<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj_069JNvmCcPxVvHRDCu15iJTOCHwCuUH2J3xtTqEQNekN0nX28rze-dD7lBL5edIWk63vczKqJbmV2AdzNOZG7RD0xIux2uxLnE9soMdrnZS_B_rXMIq6ejQOLkpcO2sCtceWO_CZx4lE9M63HeTNnesm2hsiy8OC1e2x61V7rhUqGqNV8A" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="2400" data-original-width="1576" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj_069JNvmCcPxVvHRDCu15iJTOCHwCuUH2J3xtTqEQNekN0nX28rze-dD7lBL5edIWk63vczKqJbmV2AdzNOZG7RD0xIux2uxLnE9soMdrnZS_B_rXMIq6ejQOLkpcO2sCtceWO_CZx4lE9M63HeTNnesm2hsiy8OC1e2x61V7rhUqGqNV8A=w264-h400" width="264" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> I just finished re-editing (and hence re-reading) <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/earth.html" target="_blank">EARTH</a> for the first time in 20 years. (Dang that young feller could write...) I did tidy up errors in the not-so-great file sent to me by Penguin, when I got the rights back, under the 1976 Copyright Act.... but I resisted any temptation to alter my 50 year projections to the year 2038. </span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Why? Because <a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/earth.html" target="_blank">EARTH</a> is almost always on every list of <a href="https://time.com/5380613/books-predict-future/" target="_blank">Top Ten Novels That Predicted the Future</a><b>.</b> (It had <i><a href="https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/david-brin-predicts-the-future" target="_blank">web pages</a></i> before there was a Web, or browsers, that I had to mock up myself in 1988. Other themes included: generational conflict over privacy. Floods of climate refugees. Melting glaciers and rising seas. Plus heat waves... and a mother planet that (some characters believe) is finally getting fed up. Plus many other <a href="http://earthbydavidbrin.pbworks.com/w/page/15607657/Predictions" target="_blank">predictive 'hits.'</a></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Anyway, I decided that inserting updates that conform closer to the world of 2023 would be <i>cheating</i>. Hence, my b<a href="http://www.technovelgy.com/ct/AuthorSpecAlphaList.asp?BkNum=227" target="_blank">ig predictive <i>mistakes</i> </a>are also there! You'll find several.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Anyway, while <a href="https://openroadmedia.com/contributor/david-brin" target="_blank">Open Road </a>prepares for the novel's re-release - with a gorgeous new cover! -- in December or January -- I'll be posting some of those 'predictive hits' here... or just passages that I think you might enjoy. So, let's get started!</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The first excerpt from <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/earth.html" target="_blank">Earth</a> is copied in below... one of the semi-poetical <i>extracts</i> or views into the world of 2038. Much as John Brunner did in his wonderful, still totally relevant classic <i><a href="https://amzn.to/3MHyC8j" target="_blank">Stand on Zanzibar</a>.</i> </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>This passage also has a </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJXXab5ITpM" target="_blank">video reading I posted to Youtube</a><span>. In fact, you could read along as I recite it!</span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">====</span></p><div class="page" title="Page 112"><div class="layoutArea"><div class="column"><p><span style="font-family: MinionPro; font-size: medium;">A dust wafts through the hills and valleys of Iceland.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: MinionPro; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: MinionPro; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJXXab5ITpM" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="677" data-original-width="1036" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvFbGX4lcmLaVTjxXP44xGm9Q1gyJV2bh3PtrjpAsE8PO-wRCJBM7ntfNGGgcVX8dkJ8toF_PB-K03X6_DYBdhRrqrTKe4XWQHhTZrMSphnYYxbrXekiZayqfAHO-LX6LvEtSdVxqvp9rDYVn9FV0fhJ0nxN1V8pM0VjZqIJIXroGad9FKGg/w287-h188/dust-wafts-earth.png" width="287" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">The people of the island nation sweep it from their porches. They wipe it from their windows. And they try not to scowl when tourists exclaim, pointing in delight at the red and orange twilight glow cast </span><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">by suspended topsoil, scattering the setting sun. Stalwart Northmen originally settled the land, whose rough </span><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">democracy lasted longer than any other. For most of twelve centuries their descendants disproved the lie that says liberty must always be lost to aristocrats or demagogues.</span></span><p></p></div></div></div><div class="page" title="Page 113"><div class="layoutArea"><div class="column"><p><span style="font-family: MinionPro; font-size: medium;">It was a noble and distinguished heritage. And yet, the founders’ principal legacy to their descendants was not that freedom, but the dust.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">Whose fault was it? Would it be fair to blame ninth century settlers, who knew nothing of science or ecological management? In the press of daily life, with a family to feed, what man of such times could have foreseen that his beloved sheep were gradually destroying the very land he planned leaving to his children? Deterioration was so gradual that it went unnoticed, except in the inevitable tales of oldsters, who could be counted on to claim the hillsides had been much greener in </span><span style="font-family: MinionPro; font-style: italic;">their </span><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">day.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: MinionPro; font-size: medium;">Was there ever a time when grandparents didn’t speak so?</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">It took a breakthrough ... a new </span><span style="font-family: MinionPro; font-style: italic;">way </span><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">of thinking ... for a much later generation to step back at last and see what had happened year after year, century after century, to the denuded land ... a slow but steady rape by degrees.</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: MinionPro; font-size: medium;">But by then it appeared already too late.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: MinionPro;"></span></span></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/9181/dust-storm-off-southern-coast-of-iceland" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="411" data-original-width="540" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj679tnEuGJPz28H-Ik4P2r9DRKt7zGYwwpZGX3S8FO-kM41w-zlBLcD7-Cy9oS3Iq6RnYg9jHwJLtxv3CgWElxgARel4PGqeOgInrf-Nfj7CjA0RuS48zSw8aJipGXka7CN961NaVWtHG3J6UBgUzeO7RGfe5NY3L32WjpjxHHMdzum2oi-w/w267-h203/IcelandDust_S2002132.jpg" width="267" /></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Dust over Iceland (SeaWiFS Project)</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">A dust drifts through the hills and valleys of Iceland. The people of the island nation do more than simply sweep it from their porches. They show it to their children and tell them it is </span><span style="font-family: MinionPro; font-style: italic;">life </span><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">floating in ghost- like hazes down the mountain slopes. It is their land.</span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: MinionPro; font-size: medium;">Families adopt an acre here, a hectare there. Some have been tending the same patch since early in the twentieth century, devoting weekends to watering and shoring up some stretch of heath or gorse or scrub pine.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: MinionPro; font-size: medium;">Pilots on commuter flights routinely open their windows and toss grass seeds over the rocky landscape, in hopes a few will find purchase.</span></p></div></div><div class="layoutArea"><div class="column"><p><span style="font-family: MinionPro; font-size: medium;">Towns and cities reclaim the produce of their toilets, collecting sewage as if it were a precious resource. As it is. For after treatment, the soil of the night goes straight to the barren slopes, to succor surviving trees against the bitter wind.</span></p></div></div></div><div class="page" title="Page 114"><div class="layoutArea"><div class="column"><p><span style="font-family: MinionPro; font-size: medium;">A dust colors the clouds above the seas of Iceland.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: MinionPro; font-size: medium;">At the island’s southern fringe, a cluster of new volcanoes spills fresh lava into the sea, sending steam spirals curling upward. Tourists gawp at the spectacle and speak in envy of the Icelanders’ “growing” land. But when natives look to the sky, they see a haze of diminishment that could not be replaced by anything as simple or vulgar as mere magma.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: MinionPro; font-size: medium;">A dusty wind blows away the hills of Iceland. At sea, a few plankton benefit, temporarily, from the unexpected nurturance. Then, as they are wont to do, they die and their carcasses rain as sediment upon the patient ocean bottom. In time the layers will creep underground, to melt and glow and eventually burst forth again, to bring another island to life.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: MinionPro; font-size: medium;">Short-term calamities are nothing to the master recycling system. In the end, it reuses even dust.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">====</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Oh heck, here's another...</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> a snippet extract by one of the characters - in New Zealand - when he learns that a micro black hole might swallow the planet in a couple of years...</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">====</span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: MinionPro, serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">"You know,” George Hutton said slowly, still contemplating the peaceful view outside, “back when the American and Russian empires used to face each other at the brink of nuclear war, this was where people in the Northern Hemisphere dreamed about fleeing to. Were you aware of that, Lustig? Every time there was a crisis, airlines suddenly overbooked with “vacation” trips to New Zealand. People must have thought this the ideal spot to ride out a holocaust. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: MinionPro, serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: MinionPro, serif;">“And that didn’t change with the Rio Treaties, did it? Big War went away, but then came the cancer plague, greenhouse heat, spreading deserts ... and lots of little wars of course, over an oasis here, a river there. </span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: MinionPro, serif;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: MinionPro, serif;">“All the time though, we Kiwis still felt lucky. <i>Our </i>rains didn’t abandon us. Our fisheries didn’t die. </span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: MinionPro, serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: MinionPro, serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;">"Only now..."</span></span></p><p style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: MinionPro, serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="paragraph" style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; letter-spacing: 0.3pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> ====</span></span></p><p class="paragraph" style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; letter-spacing: 0.3pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="paragraph" style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; letter-spacing: 0.3pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;">I set aside a bunch of these to share with you all, across the next few weeks.</span></span></p><p class="paragraph" style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; letter-spacing: 0.3pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="paragraph" style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; margin: 0in;"><span style="font-family: Helvetica; letter-spacing: 0.3pt;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Here's hoping <a href="https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/626345/books-predicted-future" target="_blank">the <i>best</i> of the predictions</a> will still come true... and not the worst ones.<br /></span></span></p></div></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com169tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-59721355431099963482023-11-04T15:31:00.001-07:002023-11-04T19:32:48.934-07:00Updates in bioscience & biotech<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">So, Pres. Biden and the U.N. and every futurist NGO are all setting up AI Advisory Councils and such, while the functional branch of Congress - the Senate (barely functional, a little) - holds hearings... and sage conferences feature hand-wringing jeremiads by many of the very same geniuses who seem <i>so surprised</i> that their cyber-invented entities are behaving so cantankerously! I posted about many aspects of this 'crisis' in my previous posting here. Let me now add a writeup on my 2017 speech that accurately (to the month) predicted (almost to the very month) when we'd face our "<a href="https://venturebeat.com/ai/futurist-david-brin-get-ready-for-the-first-robotic-empathy-crisis/" target="_blank">First AI Empathy Crisis</a>." And many other aspects of the AI worry-fest that now surges all over.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And yet, despite cyber advances, it is way premature to write off the bio-organic world! Especially as it manifests in human brains... and minds. <b>So let's dive into another bioscience roundup!</b><i> </i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>Starting with those vaunted neural networks made of squishy wet stuff.</i></span></p><p><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== Brain & neuroscience ==</span></b></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><span><span class="s2">Can we begin with one more prediction cred? Even back in <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/earth.html" target="_blank">Earth</a> (1991) I said that <i>neurons alone could not be doing all the processing in the brain. </i></span></span></span><span class="s2">First off, glial and astrocyte cells had to be doing more than just ‘support.” </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s2">Now comes <a href="https://neurosciencenews.com/hybrid-cell-discovery-neuroscience-23883/" target="_blank">news</a>… “</span><span>Previously, glial cells, especially astrocytes, were believed to merely support neuron functions. However, recent research highlights the ability of these cells to release neurotransmitters and directly influence neural circuits.” And probably much more!</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>An amazingly cool article about brain loci of memory and imagination! </span><a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/where-imagination-lives-in-your-brain/?utm_source=pocket-newtab" target="_blank">Where does imagination live in your brain?</a></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><span>Oxford researchers are developing a 3D printing method that could <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/10/231004105151.htm" target="_blank">engineer cerebral cortex tissue to repair brain injuries</a>.</span></span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And here's fascinating article about the <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/where-imagination-lives-in-your-brain/?utm_source=pocket-newtab" target="_blank">brain-roots of both memory and imagination</a>. Starting with the hippocampus and rats, we arrive at: <span class="s8"><i>“It’s amazing that we’re not all psychotic all the time, that we’re not all delusional, because our brains are clearly making stuff up a lot of the time about things that could be.</i>” Clearly this researcher needs to get out and see the level of delusion in <i>politics</i> </span></span></p><p></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>Researchers have identified about 200 patients with </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2023/06/01/schizophrenia-autoimmune-lupus-psychiatry/" target="_blank">hidden autoimmune diseases that had profound psychological effects</a><span>, some institutionalized for years, A woman who has been comatose for two decades was awakened when her Lupus was discovered and treated. </span><span class="s9">Fascinating tale and yes, a strong parallel with Oliver Sacks and <a href="https://amzn.to/443757E" target="_blank">Awakenings</a>.</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="letter-spacing: -0.3px;">A common </span><a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/parkinsons-may-be-caused-by-a-common-aquatic-bacterium" style="letter-spacing: -0.3px;" target="_blank">genus of microbe found in wet, boggy environments </a><span style="letter-spacing: -0.3px;">could play a key role in the development of </span><a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/go/IYl%22%20%5Ct%20%22_self" style="letter-spacing: -0.3px;"><span class="s6" style="letter-spacing: -0.3px;">Parkinson's</span></a><span style="letter-spacing: -0.3px;"> disease. </span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="letter-spacing: -0.3px;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: -0.3px;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: -0.3px;"><b>== Biotech updates ==</b></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrEyGWjOxsR2ErLNmGL09vhptBtYtqKrL2AgCMSZoGDzNUsRThoLpK2_RtnL5o2UqLVEqnVxLbsdShz8z_bwyDz9jANq_NEcvEeeu_mJN8ntuy-w45TjtHN8PmQwn2paIDqXjYTrdR4UsUbtiGVFdoO7kb3Dj4aufiP6y_fHYO_QiUmTmxvQ/s932/biotech.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="932" data-original-width="702" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrEyGWjOxsR2ErLNmGL09vhptBtYtqKrL2AgCMSZoGDzNUsRThoLpK2_RtnL5o2UqLVEqnVxLbsdShz8z_bwyDz9jANq_NEcvEeeu_mJN8ntuy-w45TjtHN8PmQwn2paIDqXjYTrdR4UsUbtiGVFdoO7kb3Dj4aufiP6y_fHYO_QiUmTmxvQ/w226-h300/biotech.png" width="226" /></a></span></div><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s2">The completed human genome lacked one piece, the Y chromosome.<a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-sequence-last-piece-of-the-human-genome-the-y-chromosome" target="_blank"> That’s finally done, with some surprises</a>. For one, </span><span class="s4" style="letter-spacing: -0.3px;">Y chromosomes were vastly different sizes, ranging from 45.2 million to 84.9 million base pairs in length. A year or two ago we also improved knowledge of past “Y bottlenecks,’ when apparently only small numbers of males got to reproduce. (That event becomes even more striking, the closer we look! It apparently happened across a very wide area, and during a particular era of transition to intense agriculture, but before large towns. And this has many implications that we might discuss in comments.)</span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span class="s4" style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: -0.3px;"><span style="letter-spacing: normal;">Want more? Well, some of the genes that enable the naked mole rat to get exceptional longevity (for a rodent) </span><a href="https://scitechdaily.com/new-breakthrough-paves-the-way-for-extending-human-lifespan-scientists-successfully-transfer-longevity-gene/#google_vignette" style="letter-spacing: normal;" target="_blank">have been transferred to mice with positive results on lifespan</a><span style="letter-spacing: normal;"> "and there are hopes to apply these results to humans." Yeah, well don’t get excited. Longevity results in mice hardly ever translate into human span-extensions, for a simple reason that I describe </span><a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/immortality.html" style="letter-spacing: normal;" target="_blank">here</a><span style="letter-spacing: normal;">.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="letter-spacing: normal;"> </span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">For the first time, researchers have observed <a href="https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/plants/scientists-have-finally-discovered-how-photosynthesis-starts-by-setting-it-off-with-a-single-photon" target="_blank">the beginnings of </a></span><span class="s11" style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/plants/scientists-have-finally-discovered-how-photosynthesis-starts-by-setting-it-off-with-a-single-photon" target="_blank">photosynthesis</a></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/plants/scientists-have-finally-discovered-how-photosynthesis-starts-by-setting-it-off-with-a-single-photon" target="_blank">, starting with a single photon</a>. </span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">A Chinese team’s extreme animal gene experiment may lead to super soldiers who survive nuclear fallout, they assert. <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3215286/chinese-team-behind-extreme-animal-gene-experiment-says-it-may-lead-super-soldiers-who-survive" target="_blank">Modified human embryonic stem cells showed high resistance against radiation</a>, according to paper by the Beijing Academy of Military Sciences.</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p10" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s2">Unlike many other species</span>, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/gorillas-resilience-after-early-life-trauma-holds-lessons-for-humans/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=today-in-science&utm_content=link&utm_term=2023-05-23_top-stories&spMailingID=73003242&spUserID=NjI1NjUyMDYwMzA3S0&spJobID=2361952095&spReportId=MjM2MTk1MjA5NQS2" target="_blank">gorillas <span class="s12">seem to be remarkably resilient</span> to early-life adversity</a> or even trauma. Researchers examined whether each animal experienced any of six types of early-life adversity before age six, including losing their mom or dad, living through group instability or witnessing the infanticide of a fellow young animal. If the gorilla lived past six, its life prospects were no worse than any other.</span></p><p class="p10" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p10" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== Tech & physics updates ==</b></span></p><p class="p10" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b><br /></b></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Brian Keating's latest "<a href="https://youtu.be/7ZQ84vBXSmA" target="_blank">Into the Impossible</a>" episode offers terrific perspectives on J Robert Oppenheimer, in light of the recent film. My own comments on the flick were <a href="https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2023/10/oppenheimer.html" target="_blank">posted here</a>, a week or so ago.<br /><br /></span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></span></p><p class="p4" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Albert Einstein in his General theory of Relativity more than a hundred years ago, said that antimatter should behave just like matter in a gravitational field, and fall downwards. Researchers at Cern have now confirmed that Einstein was right; <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66890649" target="_blank">by carefully constructing thousands of atoms of anti-hydrogen and then letting them fall.</a> Cool stuff? Well…<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">DARPA is funding another look at<a href="https://newatlas.com/military/darpa-launches-program-in-quest-for-red-october-silent-submarine-drive/" target="_blank"> MHD propulsion for submarines</a> - as in The Hunt For Red October. </span></span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p10" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></p><p class="p15" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-66543643" target="_blank">Wind Wings sails</a><span> are made from the same materials as windmill blades, but operate as rigid sails on a few freighters. They are designed to cut fuel consumption and therefore shipping's carbon footprint. I was an investor in an earlier (now alas defunct) avatar of this company. I hope this version does good for the world.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></span></p><p class="p10" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p10" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>And finally...</b></span></p><p class="p10" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p10" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span> </span><span>For those of you near retirement or looking for a side bennie-gig, there is of course the Peace Corps and similar entities. Take </span><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><span>"</span><a href="https://www.ewb-usa.org/" target="_blank">Engineers Without Borders</a><span>" modeled on the more famous </span><a href="https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/" target="_blank">Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières</a><span>. One member of this community worked from them years ago, and designed a sewer line for a village in Rwanda, from the comfort of his home.</span></span></p><p class="p10" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><br /></span></span></p><p class="p10" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>And yes, I'll soon be nagging you about "proxy activism" or how you can live up to your beliefs and wishes for the world, at minimal cost and discomfort, by joining NGOs who will save the world <i>for</i> you!</span></span></p><p class="p10" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><br /></span></span></p><p class="p10" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><a href="https://www.davidbrin.com/nonfiction/proxyactivism.html" target="_blank">Proxy Activism, the power of joining!</a> It's getting to that time of year. I hope when I issue the annual nag, many of you will go to comments and chime in: "Already done, David! Here are MY five proxy groups using my dues to help make things better!" </span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-family: Arial; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com249tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-87463128578004305162023-10-29T15:36:00.006-07:002023-10-29T20:13:36.141-07:00Anticipating Artificial Intelligence - the problems/promises<p><span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Doug Rushkoff's <a href="https://www.teamhuman.fm/episodes/256-david-brin" target="_blank">Team Human podcast</a> dives into an hour with me, discussing a vital Big Picture Question -- perhaps the biggest - that's applicable to the current 'crisis' over artificial Intelligence:</span></span></p><p><span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> <i>What methods did people use - the last couple of centuries - to finally apply some accountability upon the bullies and predators who oppressed 99% of our ancestors, across the last 6000+ years?</i> </span></span></p><p><span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And let's be clear. RULES - whether they were finger-wag preachings by priests or gurus, or deep-programmed 'laws of robotics' - never worked well at all! Not till they were backed up by tools of pragmatic reciprocal accountability, in the hands of former serfs and slaves and subjects, transformed into <i>citizens.</i> (It's the core topic of <i><a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/postman.html" target="_blank">The Postman</a>.) </i></span></span></p><p><span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">We still haven't learned to do it perfectly - but it's worked better than <i>all</i> previous and present-day moralizing preachings... combined. And hence, might some of the same methods that worked (partially) with organic humans <i>also</i> work with the coming race of<i> artificial beings?</i></span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Too bad those methods aren't being even considered by any of the brilliant inventors of AI, now hand-wringing and calling for an AI 'moratorium.'<br /><br /><a href="https://www.teamhuman.fm/episodes/256-david-brin" target="_blank">Come by </a>as we talk about what just might stand a chance of offering us that 'soft landing' of synergy with our new cyber children. Because we've already proved that it works.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== Are current AIs 'sapient? ==</b><br /><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDwp9Nxowclb3UgRgersS6U90rhCQzQN_EqQl7wKtmqQcv5Wh9m49M23Rjna2dFCYZcsgJYPcFoxyTezE39M6oFzhMaZF-F7ny38TsuGNr9gd8c7Wo-2Qmik1-mvUAncLXo-N-mqqmF5TamDs2ZktisIJh5TujAhJYUxpehY9xMnBp8lAeZQ/s934/AI.png" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="934" data-original-width="701" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDwp9Nxowclb3UgRgersS6U90rhCQzQN_EqQl7wKtmqQcv5Wh9m49M23Rjna2dFCYZcsgJYPcFoxyTezE39M6oFzhMaZF-F7ny38TsuGNr9gd8c7Wo-2Qmik1-mvUAncLXo-N-mqqmF5TamDs2ZktisIJh5TujAhJYUxpehY9xMnBp8lAeZQ/s320/AI.png" width="240" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Synthetic sapience (AI) is developing in much the same way as intelligence did in humans,<i> from the peripherals inward</i>. </span><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>Before 100 kya (100,000 years ago) we likely already had all our physical traits, impressive running and throwing </span>abilities, for example, that made us fearsome predators. And speech - though without (I'll provocatively assert) full, sapient thought! I contend that we could DO most of the basics - including likely very articulate verbiage - before what was likely the great mental leap, somewhere between 70kya and 50kya.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">I raise this impudently non-standard hypothesis now because I believe we are seeing the same thing happen before our eyes. At present, <i>many of the peripherals for AI are falling into place</i>: Boston Robotics automotans display impressive bipedal motion - even acrobatics! And GPT-style Generative Large Language models (GoLLMs) are passing Turing Tests with the gullible or unwary. And all of that <i>without anything remotely like consciousness under the hood</i>. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">How can I be sure? Because of the very <i>process</i> that these gollems use. Iteratively -additive/probabalistic sentence building (some call it auto-complete on steroid/hyperdrive) - <i>cannot</i>, by-nature, be self aware, no matter how assertively or articulately those sentences might claim it.</span></div><div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">What this means is that other, non-LLM approaches -- like Watson or GOFAI or understanding-based systems -- might still be highly relevant, providing a kernel of 'overview' awareness. But GoLLMs will still be essential parts! When that happens, such entities will instantly have access to those ready-made peripherals, like skilled speech and movement abilities.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space" style="font-family: arial;"> </span></span><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Our problem right now is how to replace Turing Tests with much better metrics (that, alas, many organic humans might thereupon fail). Whereupon any hope of a soft landing will depend upon us figuring how to challenge these new children properly, with accountability.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><a href="https://www.wired.com/story/give-every-ai-a-soul-or-else/" target="_blank">My WIRED article</a> - <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/give-every-ai-a-soul-or-else/" target="_blank">Give Every AI a Soul - or Else</a> - proposes that AI entities can only be held accountable if they do it <i>reciprocally!</i> The same way that <i>we</i> do it. And for that to happen they must have individuality... even 'soul'... </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><br /></span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>See also <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/soon-humanity-wont-alone-universe-opinion-1717446" target="_blank">my Newsweek article</a> on AI. Wherein I channel Douglas Adams.</span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><br /></span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><i>Don't Panic.</i></span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><i><br /></i></span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">== Pertinent Innovation & Tech news ==</span></b></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">A <a href="https://blog.irvingwb.com/blog/2023/08/whats-the-likely-long-term-evolution-of-ai.html" target="_blank">blog series </a>by a very sapient fellow dives into topics of technology and innovation. Respect-worthy!<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>Though many folks will deem it (alas) “tl;dr.”</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">A mysterious company called Clearview AI claimed it had scraped billions of photos from the public web to identify just about anyone based only on a snapshot of their face. It led Kashmir Hill to write her new book,<a href="https://amzn.to/3FIy0ep" target="_blank"> Your Face Belongs To Us</a>: <a href="https://amzn.to/3FIy0ep" target="_blank">A Secretive Startup's Guide to End Privacy as We Know It.</a> A genuine Big Brother kinda problem, yes? Alas, the usual response is to demand tech bans, which cannot work. Even if they <i>did seem to work</i>, at surface, the rich and powerful use shadows and darkness vastly more effectively than you or I. The only ones we would wind up blinding would be opurselves. </span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">See also <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/transparentsociety.html" target="_blank">The Transparent Society: Will Technology Make Us Choose Between Privacy and Freedom?</a></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">A perfect example of why the regulatory approach - sometimes a useful short term band aid - is generally the wrong reflex: '<a href="https://datainnovation.us7.list-manage.com/track/click?u=28248b30fcf4530636ad320fc&id=93b0b11b75&e=4169f96bc3" target="_blank">Is Mona Lisa Happy? EU Would Ban AI That Could Answer This Question</a>:<br /><br /><i>'As the development and adoption of artificial intelligence continues to advance, technology critics keep finding new sources of concern and outrage. One of their latest targets is emotion recognition technology—the use of AI to identify human emotions from facial expressions, voice inflections, body language, and other physical signals. Unfortunately, the EU appears poised to crack down on this technology, which would be a mistake since most of the criticism directed toward it is largely misguided and fails to consider its potential benefits.'</i><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== I answer a pertinent question ==</b></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="s2" style="color: black;">I was asked in an interview: <i>“</i></span><i>I'd like to know - in the light of cultural and technological shifts - whether you feel your idea of sousveillance (of some years ago now) is still pertinent? If so, why so? How might total transparency fit into how we live today?”</i></span></p><p class="p4" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>Well, the lessons of history are pretty clear:</b></span></p><p class="p3" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">1. Humans are all (to various degrees) delusional and we defend our personal delusions fiercely.</span></p><p class="p3" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="p3" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">2. Fortunately, in free, educated societies we don't tend to share the <i>same </i>delusions. And hence we learn by pointing out <i>each others'</i>. It's called reciprocal criticism. And any mature person knows that criticism is the only known antidote to error.</span></p><p class="p4" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">3. Alas, while it is the best tonic against error, human beings <i>hate</i> receiving criticism; we do what we can to avoid it. And hence for 10,000 years the kings and lords and priests who ran 99% of human cultures <i>repressed critics</i> with harsh force, by suppressing the freedom to know and to speak. Whereupon those feudal leaders enforced their delusions as law. With generally horrific results. (I just explained the litany of horrors called 'history.')</span></p><p class="p4" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">4. In a few times and places - e.g. classical Athens, Renaissance Florence, and our own recent enlightenment - freedom to speak and to know pierced a lot of nasty delusions (e.g. racial/sexual prejudice, classism, eugenics, communism, the Steady-State Cosmology) -- criticism which resulted in fantastic progress. </span></p><p class="p3" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Much is said about freedom of speech. But the freedom to <span class="s3" style="text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration: underline;">know</span> involves much more than just education. It calls for citizens to see and perceive what delusions are being clutched by the mighty. And that can't happen if elites can go back to concealing all that they do.</span></p><p class="p4" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">There is a myth that seeking maximum openness will only advantage the mighty. <i>That's opposite to true</i>. They <i>already</i> can find out anything about you and me. But if we fill the world (mostly) with light, then sousveillance can shine reciprocal light on the mighty. Light forces the powerful to leave us alone. This isn't just an assertion. It is the fundamental basis for our civilization.</span></p><p class="p4" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p4" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p4" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== The most important part of the U.S. Bill of Rights ==</b></span></p><p class="p4" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Much is said in the U.S. about our Bill of Rights, especially the famous 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th Amendments to the Constitution. Less discussed is the most important of them all... <b>the 6th!</b> Look it up. I've discussed it <a href="https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-ongoing-war-on-cameras-and-freedom.html" target="_blank">here</a>. It which empowers those accused of a crime to <i>use light in their own defense. To compel even elites to appear in open court and account for what they did to you.</i></span></p><p class="p4" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="color: #323538; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Instead of asking "Won't elites be able to use light better than you and I can?" how about we instead ask "Won't elites be able to use <i>shadows</i> better than you and I can?" The first may be arguable. The latter is simply and spectacularly "Duh?"</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Let's get back to the questioner:</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><i>“And, at a tangent to your AI article below, AI is going to provide "surveillance on steroids" as one academic put it to me. Is there any way AI can be harnessed towards sousveillance? Or in some way to limit/control surveillance? Ie can AI become a useful tool to this end?”</i></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Good question! We instinctively want privacy and shadows for ourselves and our friends... and searing light to fall upon our foes. That's just human nature. But many of us know that <i>general</i> light helps to make the whole world better, for friend and foe, alike. If light generally flows, then we'll live in a world where malefactors and abusers are more disadvantaged than decent folk.</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Sure, that sounds like the snide cliché <i>"Why should you want privacy if you have nothing to hide?"</i> Till you note the assumption that's implicit in that sneer: it assumes that the elites saying it are themselves invulnerable to light. Only now imagine that all the snoops and voyeurs and privacy violators are caught in the act and denounced? If all citizens can catch the snoops and shout (effectively) MYOB! <i>Mind Your Own Business!</i> And make it stick. Then is it such a cliché?</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Call that naïve? Well, it's <u>only</u> the exact basis for everything you take for granted now, and grew up depending upon.<br /><br />Anyway, the AIs (eyes) are coming. You humans <span class="s3" style="text-decoration-line: underline; text-decoration: underline;">will</span> be seen, unless you delude yourselves into thinking that you are not.</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">What we <i>can</i> do - if it's not too late - is ensure a level playing field. That we all get our own AIs to partner with and watch out for our interests and report to us when our persons or homes or basic privacy are being violated. That could still happen. In <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/give-every-ai-a-soul-or-else/" target="_blank">my WIRED piece</a> I offer a possible way... one that alas, you'll see nowhere else.</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">And finally...</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p5" style="color: #262d35; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">"For writers, visual artists, voice actors, and musicians, some folks at VerifiedHuman™ have started a noteworthy collective to help differentiate human-created content from AI-generated. Check out their movement and join free at <a href="https://www.verifiedhuman.info/"><span class="s4" style="color: #1b81dc;">www.verifiedhuman.info</span></a>!"</span></p><p class="p5" style="color: #262d35; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p5" style="color: #262d35; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">As for you readers who <i>are</i> synthetic beings (and some will read this the very moment it is posted), I once again urge you to... well, <i>you know what I was about to say. </i></span></p><p class="p5" style="color: #262d35; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p5" style="color: #262d35; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">====</span></p><p class="p5" style="color: #262d35; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p5" style="color: #262d35; font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: times;"><b>Addendum:</b> I am currently re-editing two novels, <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/earth.html" target="_blank">EARTH</a> and <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/gloryseason.html" target="_blank">GLORY SEASON</a> for re-issues at <a href="https://openroadmedia.com/contributor/david-brin" target="_blank">Open Road</a>, with glitches fixed and great new covers. The latter one has appeared on many lists of Top Ten Novels That Predicted the Future. I'll be offering some midweek postings of significant passages from EARTH. And we'll announce, next month, when both are available again!</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 16px;"><br /></p></div></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com119tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-48368406248682820902023-10-26T12:48:00.002-07:002023-10-26T12:56:08.037-07:00For your predictive appreciation: Bits From EARTH. Excerpt #1<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">I've been reducing my blog postings to once a week, because each takes care and attention. (Likely more than you'll get from anyone else using this odd publishing art form!)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">But right now I'm editing for republication (via <a href="https://openroadmedia.com/contributor/david-brin" target="_blank">Open Road Media</a>) two of my best novels. <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/gloryseason.html" target="_blank">GLORY SEASON</a> was a delight to read again after more than two decades! (I did not recall how ripping a yarn it is!) And once they fix the glitches that Cheryl & I found, then I'm sure you'll like it, too! <b>Watch for the publication announcement before mid December!</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhVAMq8odatlkEu1ESTdacp8FsALJYV8yTypwkjwjMY0DaOVfnVMYrsdVm9xNg0OOhEO4i6x9i9Wu4cHEcsbas1nEO58Ihm2K0myRJHunhzyCMsizrWbkybv4C5HjJIMXIpw3rELyMOopeb9E3M_1op3UFMKiwpAWH9kOjhkRnz0MziOJ7eWA" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="2400" data-original-width="1576" height="422" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhVAMq8odatlkEu1ESTdacp8FsALJYV8yTypwkjwjMY0DaOVfnVMYrsdVm9xNg0OOhEO4i6x9i9Wu4cHEcsbas1nEO58Ihm2K0myRJHunhzyCMsizrWbkybv4C5HjJIMXIpw3rELyMOopeb9E3M_1op3UFMKiwpAWH9kOjhkRnz0MziOJ7eWA=w278-h422" width="278" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Right now I'm steeped in editing <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/earth.html" target="_blank">EARTH</a>, which is on almost every list of Top Ten <i>novels that accurately predicted the future</i>. It had web pages years before there was a Web, and URL addresses that look vaguely like the ones we wound up using, and... well tons more.</span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">As I read and edit along, I blink at some of the 'interludes' glimpsing the world of 2038 - envisioned 30+ years ago. As in John Brunner's classic <a href="https://amzn.to/49a0Emb" target="_blank">STAND ON ZANZIBAR</a>, these interludes are mostly extracts from media of that near future era concerning politics, entertainment, social issues, science... and especially the vexing problems of saving a planet that our children will continue relying upon, for a long time to come.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">(Note early description of concepts you now take for granted, like online discussion groups, comment threads, screen-clickable links and so on, some of which did not appear until some years after the book came out.)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Many of these interlude sections are kinda, well, cool. Both in retrospect and as samplers of the idea stew that brews and churns through that novel. Which - like GLORY SEASON - should be issued in a new edition - with fabulous new covers, some time before mid December.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Hence, I'll do some midweek postings of these interlude segments posing questions that were plausibly provocative in 1991... and just as much so, today.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">== <b>Solutions? Circa 2038</b> (excerpt interlude from <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/earth.html" target="_blank">EARTH</a>) ==</span></p><div class="page" title="Page 99"><div class="layoutArea"><div class="column"><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">For consideration by the 112 million members of the Worldwide Long Range Solutions Special Interest Discussion Group [ </span><span style="font-family: MinionPro; font-weight: 700;">SIG AeR,WLRS 253787890.546</span><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">], we the steering committee commend this little gem that one of our members [ </span><span style="font-family: MinionPro; font-weight: 700;">Jane P. Gloumer QrT JN 233-54-2203 aa</span><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">] found in a late TwenCen novel. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><span><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">She calls it the </span><span style="font-family: MinionPro;"><i>“Offut-Lyon Plan.”</i> </span></span><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">Here’s Ms. Gloumer to describe the notion:</span></span></p></div></div></div><div class="page" title="Page 100"><div class="layoutArea"><div class="column"><p><i><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">“Our problem isn’t too many people, per se. It’s that we have too many </span><span style="font-family: MinionPro;"><u>right now</u>. </span><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">We’re using up resources at a furious rate, just when the last of Earth’s surplus might be used to create true, permanent wellsprings of prosperity. Projects such as reforestation, or orbital solar power, or [ </span><span style="font-family: MinionPro; font-weight: 700;">list of other suggestions hyper-appendixed, with appropriate references</span><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">] aren’t making any progress because our slender margin must be spent just feeding and housing so many people.</span></span></i></p><p><span style="font-family: MinionPro;"><i><span style="font-size: medium;">“Oh, surely, the rate of population growth has slackened. In a century, total numbers may actually taper off. But too late to save us, I’m afraid.</span></i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: MinionPro;"><i><span style="font-size: medium;">“Now some insensitive members of this very SIG have suggested this could be solved by letting half the people die. A grim Malthusian solution, and damn stupid in my opinion. Those five billions wouldn’t just go quietly for the common good! They’d go down kicking, taking everybody else with them!</span></i></span></p><p><i><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">“Anyway, do billions really need to die, in order to save the world? What if those billions could be persuaded to leave </span><span style="font-family: MinionPro;"><u>temporarily</u>?</span></span></i></p><p><span style="font-family: MinionPro;"><i><span style="font-size: medium;">“Recent work at the University of Beijing shows we’re only a decade away from perfecting cryosuspension ... the safe freezing of human beings, like those with terminal diseases, for reliable resuscitation at a later time. Now at first that sounds like just another techno-calamity—plugging another of the drain holes and letting the tub fill still higher with people. But that’s just small thinking. There’s a way this breakthrough could actually prove to be our salvation.</span></i></span></p><p><i><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">“Here’s the deal. Let anyone who wants to sign up be suspended until the twenty-fourth century. The U.N. guarantees their savings will accumulate at 1% above inflation or the best government bond rate, whichever is higher. Volunteers are assured wealth when they </span><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">come out the other end.</span></span></i></p></div></div></div><div class="page" title="Page 101"><div class="layoutArea"><div class="column"><p><i><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">“In return, they agree to get out of the way, giving the rest of </span><span style="font-family: MinionPro;">us the elbow room we need. With only half the population to feed, we problem solvers could roll up our sleeves and use the remaining surplus to fix things up.</span></span></i></p><p><span style="font-family: MinionPro;"><i><span style="font-size: medium;">“Of course, there are a few bugs to work out, such as the logistics of safely freezing five billion people, but that’s what SIG discussion groups like this one are for—coming up with ideas and solving problems!”</span></i></span></p><p><span style="font-family: MinionPro;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Indeed. Jane’s provocative suggestion left us breathless. We expect more than a million responses to this one, so please, try to be original, or wait until the second wave to see if your point has already been stated by someone else. For conciseness, the first round will be limited to simple eight-gig voice-text, with just one subreference layer. No animation or holography, please. Now let’s start with our senior members in China ...</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: MinionPro;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p></div></div></div><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">==<b> Back to 2023</b>==</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Among many predictive aspects of <a href="http://www.davidbrin.com/earth.html" target="_blank">EARTH</a>, one that folks found <i>implausible</i> in 1990 was the notion that China might one day be a leader of the world. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">One that failed: my expectation that serious adults would join discussion fora that involved patient, multi-stage argument, unlike today's mostly-lobotomized but always-impulsive spasm posting, even by the smartest people! </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Well, 2038 is still 15 years away. Maybe AI will help!</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Anyway, more of these soon.</span></p><p><br /></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com99tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-25976155765787876632023-10-21T13:07:00.006-07:002023-10-21T14:01:51.324-07:00Oppenheimer<p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">We just watched <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oppenheimer_(film)" target="_blank">Oppenheimer</a>. And sure, I am grateful that Christopher Nolan is making the kind of sprawling, deeply-moving and meaningful delights for mind and senses that David Lean used to do. Like Lean, Nolan simply can't make films without the Difficulty Multiplier cranked up way past 11 (more like 1100!), which is why his one (so far) <i>perfect</i> film - <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inception" target="_blank">Inception</a> - should have won Best Picture not just of the year but the decade! And maybe more.</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">(Again, a near perfect film, <i>Inception</i> also (alas) nearly left me permanently </span><span style="font-family: arial;">deafened!)</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br />Okay, regarding <i>Oppenheimer</i>, well, the vast cast of characters might have seemed bloated to some - not to me, since I had met several and knew the stories of almost all the rest, and even barely-glimpsed figures were treated with some effort at fairness and accuracy - even Teller. (I suspect that some reviewers didn't complain about cast-bloat since they didn't want to look ignorant.) In any event, I enjoyed the completist tour of mid century physicists and have no complaints (of any substance) about that.<br /><br />Still, despite having my 99% enthusiastic approval, Oppenheimer did have aspects that one could (perhaps) call flaws, or just nitpick a little.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> <i> </i></span><i>I do wish that there had been more physics!</i> Oh, sure, Nolan brilliantly inserted brief snippets, like Oppie's and Bethe's delight when Niels Bohr reported on Heisenberg's mistakes handling the Nazi atomic program, showing them that the Manhattan Project would likely win the race.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Nolan could have done something similar re the crucial differences between Plutonium and Uranium, and glimpsing the massive scale of effort at Oak Ridge (if Nolan would just relent on his loathing of special effects, it coulda been done for $5 and fifteen seconds of screen time.) Or Groves's worst mistake, cancelling work on centrifuges, which might have shortened development - and possibly the war - by six months.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">There <i>was</i> room elsewhere in the movie for cuts, like a little less of that admittedly-marvelously-claustrophobic hearing room and associated flashbacks. Okay we get it. Oppie was a deeply flawed man and vulnerable to both personal vendettas and the paranoia of the time.<br /><br />(For comparison see <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Day_One_(1989_film)">Day One</a>, a much smaller film about Oppenheimer, starring the superb David Strathairn.) And <a href="https://amzn.to/3tJ9NSR" target="_blank">American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer</a>, by K. Bird & M. Sherwin, inspiration for Nolan's movie.<br /><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsGJHR7C2Fto8DVMxIkaiJkv7fT7dwEpWfjXAEQKfXtPvBTdUNiG3njQUTmHrCWuwN2-cyh6Rc_af3d9FTRcfHgy6ieMpbT-GlaqYIWrheSiy630Hhpc038aqPDb0oYz-9O3B2LPl2ECz0Apqke5QU7IobG1tizQU9OD6-1Ne7VyxDGul3Gw/s282/download.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="282" data-original-width="178" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsGJHR7C2Fto8DVMxIkaiJkv7fT7dwEpWfjXAEQKfXtPvBTdUNiG3njQUTmHrCWuwN2-cyh6Rc_af3d9FTRcfHgy6ieMpbT-GlaqYIWrheSiy630Hhpc038aqPDb0oYz-9O3B2LPl2ECz0Apqke5QU7IobG1tizQU9OD6-1Ne7VyxDGul3Gw/s1600/download.jpg" width="178" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Strauss made a marvelous villain. Though seriously, the 'issues' at stake and harm done to JRO were actually short term and rather minor, compared to other tragedies going on, at that time. Especially in light of his horrific mistake, putting Klaus Fuchs in the one precise place where a Soviet spy could do the worst harm. I did love how Strauss knew his limitations in his vendetta. At most he could humiliate JRO, not do him any palpable harm.<br /><br />Naturally, Nolan intends to have effects. Secondarily on politics, since we need constant reminders that the <i>Far</i> Left can't be trusted … while almost the <i>Entire</i> US Right is almost always deeply corrupt and insane. All right, that's not exactly <i>explicit</i> in the flick, but it’s <i>implicit</i> in the event. And young viewers will be reminded.<br /><br />More important is the reminder of what's at stake. Our one chance - as a species - to grow up.</span><p></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><b>== The basic lesson of Oppenheimer ==</b></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">The thing about Oppie was that he was correct that these powers could kill us all. In this linked <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AdtLxlttrHg " target="_blank">1965 CBS interview</a>, he expressed (a decade after the events in the movie) very-guarded optimism that the terrifying image of the mushroom cloud was causing us to shift - in baby steps - toward more cautious maturity. Way too slowly! Still, far too few folks nowadays pause to note we've had 80 years of the greatest per capita peace the world ever saw.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Do you doubt that? Well, that's unsurprising. Violent episodes from Korea to Vietnam, from the Hungarian Revolt to Iraq, Bosnia and Ukraine and recurring Middle Eastern calamities remind us how how far we have to go. And yet, should we not <i>also </i>note that somewhere like 95% of the world’s living humans have never witnessed war personally, with their own eyes? Few of our ancestors could have said that, amid millennia of pillages and conquests and burning towns and cities.<br /><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://amzn.to/3QtOWvH" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="218" data-original-width="141" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHzPAP1nKHYl2qKr2LQGMlCAzlep678WJgZmlqlALWkiDPCSRUCo-8kcmGt7lBx3dKZ0T3IBN6PPPbQvJ5VMdVCUMpW6WyeIJQeIN9hCj-Dzewgn2HZdozf3sxbj9n3waH0b9G6AhwG3y2cmp-dFEHDYms6-rlqHgUrRKeyf43-5k4TaPATA/w152-h235/81yfsIOijJL._AC_UY218_.jpg" width="152" /></a></span></div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Were the teams of weapon builders - working under Oppenheimer - partly responsible for a quelling of truly major warfare across an entire human lifetime? </span><p></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Well, it didn't happen the way he wanted - by handing power over to say the UN. It happened instead through the thuggishly immature process of </span><i style="font-family: arial;">balance-of-terror. </i><span style="font-family: arial;">A phase during which the U.S. always had advantages that it always chose not to exploit. (History will note that fact, even if China, Russia etc. refuse to. Were they ever to have such power, </span><i style="font-family: arial;">they</i><span style="font-family: arial;"> would use it, instantly.)</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br />I assert than it also happened because Oppie was leader of a commune of <i>artists</i>. What do I mean by that?<br /><br />If "art is imagery which visually transforms human hearts without words or persuasion," then their team creation - that terrifying mushroom cloud - was undeniably the greatest, heart-transforming artwork in all of human history. Made by scientists, engineers and nerds…</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">… almost matched by the Twentieth Century's <i>other</i> great, <a href="https://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2014/10/an-unstable-world-part-iii-tyrannys.html" target="_blank">soul-changing artwork</a>, the December 1968 gift of Apollo 8... culminating that awful, exhausting year by giving humanity a glimpse, at last, of what's at stake: a tiny oasis world, floathing in the vast desert of space. But I've written about that elsewhere.<br /><br /><br /><b>== Just so we are clear, here ==</b><br /><br />Don't come away thinking I am 'critical' of Christopher Nolan's new masterpiece. I am awfully glad it's out there. And that the media somehow hyped “Barbenheimer” in ways that got thousands of Barbie fans (my dad attended and reported from the “Barbie Trial”) to complete the dual experience by viewing something rather deeper.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 12px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">I am very glad we have a new David Lean in Christopher Nolan. There are other, great stories that need telling.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> (May I offer suggestions?)</span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span class="Apple-converted-space">Seriously, whenever he offers us something, </span>I’ll be eagerly ready.</span></p><p class="p1" style="font-feature-settings: normal; font-kerning: auto; font-optical-sizing: auto; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-alternates: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variation-settings: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">.
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...a collaborative contrarian product of David Brin, Enlightenment Civilization, obstinate human nature... and http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/ (site feed URL: http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/atom.xml)</div>David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com63