tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post8230558139084950865..comments2024-03-29T00:39:31.629-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Nominees for best science fiction of 2014 -- plus announcements!David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-73160030625128682532015-09-06T09:03:02.767-07:002015-09-06T09:03:02.767-07:00I absolutely LOVED 'The Goblin' Emperor...I absolutely LOVED 'The Goblin' Emperor'.I'm talking sat up until 4am reading just to see what happened love.I adored Maia right from the off and was truly drawn into his saga and needed to see what happened.Yes,there were parts where I felt the story itself stalled a bit,yet for me it was just about a reflection of the tedium of what it was REALLY like to be the Emperor.<br />A. E. Oglesbyhttp://aeoglesby.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-11342825019715262582015-02-23T17:55:19.369-08:002015-02-23T17:55:19.369-08:00I have the 2525 song on my iPod. Every time it com...I have the 2525 song on my iPod. Every time it comes around on the shuffle, I cringe at how easy it is to miss the Singularity evidence. Sure... there are lots of ways to fail, but those lyrics sound so quaint now. 8)Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-56505975996878642912015-02-23T17:42:12.100-08:002015-02-23T17:42:12.100-08:00Heh. Wanker on a lucky streak. You might want to r...Heh. Wanker on a lucky streak. You might want to ready Hayek's perspective on what happened in The Road to Serfdom. The collapse of sense in Germany was a long, slow one.<br /><br />As for why adult males look back at WWII for alternate endings, I think it isn't hard to figure out. Here in the US it was the last good war we fought where the vast majority of us agree. The romantic/feudal urge within us seeks such opportunities to be respected warriors.<br /><br />As for the Axis almost winning... not a chance. The US was playing it's usual game of working through proxies to avoid land wars in Eurasia. Until the conflict between Germany and the Soviets looked like it could be resolved through hegemony or through one side defeating the other, we had every motivation to hold our forces in reserve. A single power across the northern plains of Europe is an existential threat to the US and only then would we have to intervene. That's what we did in both world wars. Germany had no chance in either one unless it could consolidate power before having to face us. Good luck with that. None of their neighbors would have made it easy for them as the Soviets demonstrated by bleeding them white.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-16531604894440872842015-02-23T13:58:54.718-08:002015-02-23T13:58:54.718-08:00@ Cesar Sam
Kids have less knowledge than adults:...@ Cesar Sam<br /><br />Kids have less knowledge than adults: when I was a kid, my opinion of Hitler was more informed by Hollywood and french movies than actual historical knowledge, and as a result I viewed Hitler as some sort of supreme conman, a hyper-competent teutonic Fu Manchu who had masterfully manipulated an educated population into a murderous self-destructive frenzy.<br /><br />Then I learned stuff and came to realize that he was an inept wanker with a lucky streak: any earlier fascination i had had toward the character and his regime deflated a lot after that.Laurent Weppenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-53608453115855995692015-02-23T07:34:28.582-08:002015-02-23T07:34:28.582-08:00@ Laurent Weppe
Why grown men specifically?
Do al...@ Laurent Weppe<br />Why grown men specifically?<br /><br />Do all kids in your 'hood wear swastikas till they are 21?Cesar Samhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05000538250677118084noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36818758444687977962015-02-23T02:40:43.918-08:002015-02-23T02:40:43.918-08:00Conservatism != Reactionary
Society needs conserv...Conservatism != Reactionary<br /><br />Society needs conservatives. They are a healthy stabilising influence. As David has written, liberals are the energetic often overenthusiastic changers. A healthy society has both.<br /><br />I picture an engineering company (or alternatively, Alex's university research department), where the best of the younger workers constantly try to reinvent the wheel, while a few older heads lean in occasionally and say, from long experience, "Try it like this, son". Those older heads generally don't try to stop those younger, because the world sometimes needs new wheels, they just know more about what <i>worked before</i> and are able to cast a critical eye over the ideas of the overenthusiastic youngsters. Often they are the very thing that allows those new ideas to actually <i>work</i>. A good engineering company, or research dept, has both.<br /><br />Reactionaries, otoh, just refuse change, good or bad. It's not how I learnt it, therefore it is wrong. Indeed, they want to undo whatever changes they've had to adopt, regardless of whether the change actually improved things. Engineering firms where the old heads are reactionaries... are bad.<br /><br />I think what's often called "conservatism" in the US is just reactionary. Refusal to accept reality better fits the reactionary mind than the conservative one, IMO.<br /><br />[Pointedly refusing to say "reactionarism/reactionism/reactism", they just sound silly. Appologies to any grammarianistas who cringed every time I nouned the advective.]<br /><br />-- Paul<br />(who is looking at the world through literal rose-tinted glasses. Well, red 532nm-laser safety goggles... Sleep entrainment experiment. Free Mars.)Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-90638446831836039382015-02-22T20:35:42.176-08:002015-02-22T20:35:42.176-08:00Larry & Alex,
It looks to me like both of you ...Larry & Alex,<br />It looks to me like both of you are correct to a certain extent, and I share Alex's tendency to avoid attaching cognitive styles to political parties. While it is generally the case that "conservatives" as they are defined in the US have a very strong tendency toward blind obedience and adjusting facts to fit their pre-conceived notions, I have seen this very same behavior in those who label themselves "liberals" in this country. Try having a rational discussion about genetically modified organisms with a liberal and what you usually meet with is the same stubborn pigheadedness that makes all conversation futile.<br /><br />As a general rule, it seems that the conservatives and liberals of today (which is not what they were half a century ago) tend to split over who they distrust. Liberals distrust big business while conservatives distrust government. However, the willingness to be persuaded verses pigheaded dogmatism seems to be more common in the conservative camp these days. However, this may be more perceived than real, given who tends to become the vocal champions of each side. Liberals seem more willing to trust an educated expert to speak for them, whereas conservatives tend to distrust the educated and prefer champions who appear more salt-of-the-earth, common-as-dirt. That does not mean that either side has a monopoly on either expert testimony or populist propaganda (both sides try to appear populist because that garners more votes, and both sides claim to have their experts because that persuades), but when your spokesmen are more educated, more educated people tend to be more flexible thinkers. A certain amount of flexibility is necessary for many fields of higher education (though not all - theology, for instance, tends to frown on flexible thinking). <br /><br />In either case essentialism interferes with deeply understanding anything.Paul Shen-Brownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-11216428830113960962015-02-22T16:37:28.123-08:002015-02-22T16:37:28.123-08:00@LarrtHart - I just dislike political labels being...@LarrtHart - I just dislike political labels being attached to what is a likely a real phenomenon. I would rather call it something else that aligns with the phenomenon, which can then be attached to a political mindset if desired.<br /><br />Interestingly Republicans were more common working in universities in the past. They couldn't have been particularly "conservative" in their thinking mode, as this would be antithetical to working as a scientist. So while we might associate democratic->liberal, Republican->conservative, I don't see that it is particularly useful to label cognitive styles to these labels.Alex Tolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01556422553154817988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-83466360612879031202015-02-22T15:50:50.290-08:002015-02-22T15:50:50.290-08:00"I believe it was Grover Norqust who once cla..."<i>I believe it was Grover Norqust who once claimed that the difference between liberal and conservative journalists was that the former were journalists first and liberals second, while the latter were conservatives first and journalists second</i>"<br /><br />One reason Roger Ailes built Fox News in the first place is because he realized after his first venture in news media (Television News Inc.) that conservative reporters were too professional to obediently toe the GOP party line and ignore newsworthy data that clashed with republican talking points: so he created a network dominated by propagandists where journalists were kept in a strictly subservient place.Laurent Weppenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-16872391672871802562015-02-22T14:54:22.164-08:002015-02-22T14:54:22.164-08:00Alex Tolley:
To my mind, this is very much the di...Alex Tolley:<br /><i><br />To my mind, this is very much the difference between "liberal" and "conservative" thinking, although I hesitate to characterize minds with these labels.<br /></i><br /><br />But there does seem to be something to that distinction, in much the same sense that Paul Krugman talks about reality having a liberal bias. Liberals hear that phrase as "we allign with actual facts"--a vindication of liberalism. Conservatives hear the same phrase as a condemnation of <b>reality</b>. If actual facts don't allign with conservative dogma, then actual facts are <b>biased</b> and <b>wrong</b>.<br /><br />Or...I believe it was Grover Norqust who once claimed that the difference between liberal and conservative journalists was that the former were journalists first and liberals second, while the latter were conservatives first and journalists second. And he spoke <b>as</b> a conservative, and he didn't mean it as a condemnation of his own side. He was proud of it.LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-61700942846892239832015-02-22T12:48:44.990-08:002015-02-22T12:48:44.990-08:00@paul451, @locumranch
I see the example of busines...@paul451, @locumranch<br />I see the example of business failures not as an example of optimism vs pessimism, but rather how one deals with facts. I thought the 8/10, 9/10 failure for new businesses was correct, possibly going back to my MBA education in the 1980s. Certainly the 9/10 restaurant failures was well embedded in my mind. This last was so strong that I did a quick search, but found the anecdotal facts completely different.<br /><br />As a result, I have adjusted my thinking to the new data. Locum, in contrast, just dug himself in, trying and failing to debunk the facts as presented. To some extent this defense of a position is natural, but at some point one has to deal with facts, and if contrary to an view, the view must be adjusted. The most graceful exit would have been a "Looks like I was incorrect".<br />To my mind, this is very much the difference between "liberal" and "conservative" thinking, although I hesitate to characterize minds with these labels.Alex Tolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01556422553154817988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-47892508257422161862015-02-22T12:40:51.073-08:002015-02-22T12:40:51.073-08:00"Imagine a world in which the Axis forces of ...<i>"Imagine a world in which the Axis forces of World War II suddenly were propelled to victory over the Allies…"</i><br /><br />I think one fascination is that this was a war, still within memory, that could have resulted in am axis win, especially in Europe. There is a sense of horror at what could have been, had Germany not tried to fight on 2 fronts, and if the US had not fought in Europe.<br /><br />For Europeans, we avoided what would have been the equivalent of a communist takeover in Asia. Alex Tolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01556422553154817988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-70560752244800612312015-02-22T11:14:26.420-08:002015-02-22T11:14:26.420-08:00"A Professor From Harvard" got me thinki..."A Professor From Harvard" got me thinking about realistic butterfly effects when positing alternate history perturbations. I'm an extremist; that is, in this context, i think the butterfly effects of either one baby surviving or even one horse dying would change 50% of the population within a century. Enough micro-changes in seconds of the existence of someone halfway across the world, would suffice to cause a different sperm or ovum to unite at any given moment. History changes verry rapidly. The least extreme change of history would be to introduce one neutrino when it otherwise didn't exist in our history.Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-979707953665386232015-02-22T04:09:46.509-08:002015-02-22T04:09:46.509-08:00I suppose the Norse Gods *could* have been invoked...I suppose the Norse Gods *could* have been invoked by Napoleon...<br /><br />or Harold Godwinson.Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-9706282493260738892015-02-22T02:52:41.731-08:002015-02-22T02:52:41.731-08:00"Imagine a world in which the Axis forces of ..."<i>Imagine a world in which the Axis forces of World War II suddenly were propelled to victory over the Allies…</i>"<br /><br />Why that never-ending fascination with the Axis powers coming from grown men?Laurent Weppenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-17945111513914031452015-02-22T01:24:03.019-08:002015-02-22T01:24:03.019-08:00Locumranch,
"Again, it depends how you define...Locumranch,<br /><i>"Again, it depends how you define 'small business'."</i><br /><br />No, Locumranch, it doesn't. Because the cliche you regurgitated was:<br /><br /><i><b>"9 out of 10 new business FAIL in their first year."</b></i><br /><br />...which notably lacks the word "small".<br /><br />You cliche is wrong. 9 out of 10 new businesses do not fail in their first year.<br /><br />And yes, 9 out of 10 small businesses do not fail in their first year.<br /><br />9 out of 10 sole operator small businesses do not fail in their first year.<br /><br />9 out of 10 restaurants do not fail in their first year.<br /><br />9 out of 10 tech startups do not fail in their first year.<br /><br />It's a stupid cliche that made you feel good because it fits your mindset. You don't actually care whether it's true or not, you only care that it <i>felt</i> true, that it fits your narrative. And, as I predicted, showing that it's wrong wouldn't make any difference to you. Your cynicism is not "realism", it's a comfortable place. <i>"Can't make things better, so don't try."</i>Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-26254761129134735982015-02-21T18:58:28.333-08:002015-02-21T18:58:28.333-08:00By that time there may be a definitive answer on B...By that time there may be a definitive answer on Bussard's polywell fusion.Tim H.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-7786025887582216432015-02-21T13:04:00.800-08:002015-02-21T13:04:00.800-08:00Not sure what one can forecast for the year 2525, ...Not sure what one can forecast for the year 2525, but it reminded me of this song:<br /><br /><b>In The Year 2525 Lyrics</b><br /><i>"In The Year 2525" was written by Evans, Richard Lee.</i><br /><br />In the year 2525, if man is still alive<br />If woman can survive, they may find<br />In the year 3535<br /><br />Ain't gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lie<br />Everything you think, do and say<br />Is in the pill you took today<br /><br />In the year 4545<br />You ain't gonna need your teeth, won't need your eyes<br />You won't find a thing to chew<br />Nobody's gonna look at you<br /><br />In the year 5555<br />Your arms hangin' limp at your sides<br />Your legs got nothin' to do<br />Some machine's doin' that for you<br /><br />In the year 6565<br />Ain't gonna need no husband, won't need no wife<br />You'll pick your son, pick your daughter too<br />From the bottom of a long glass tube<br /><br />In the year 7510<br />If God's a-coming, He oughta make it by then<br />Maybe He'll look around Himself and say<br />"Guess it's time for the Judgement Day"<br /><br />In the year 8510<br />God is gonna shake His mighty head<br />He'll either say, "I'm pleased where man has been"<br />Or tear it down, and start again<br /><br />In the year 9595<br />I'm kinda wonderin' if man is gonna be alive<br />He's taken everything this old earth can give<br />And he ain't put back nothing<br /><br />Now it's been ten thousand years, man has cried a billion tears<br />For what, he never knew, now man's reign is through<br />But through eternal night, the twinkling of starlight<br />So very far away, maybe it's only yesterday<br />Alex Tolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01556422553154817988noreply@blogger.com