tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post8051746500425073676..comments2024-03-28T04:58:13.341-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Ban the pesky cameras? Before we all agree, consider what works.David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger91125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-41231353461521401392019-11-20T11:05:15.789-08:002019-11-20T11:05:15.789-08:00onward
onwardonward<br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-55841229590397490792019-11-20T10:56:12.766-08:002019-11-20T10:56:12.766-08:00Zepp Jamieson:
The foxnews.com page is massively ...Zepp Jamieson:<br /><i><br />The foxnews.com page is massively entertaining this morning. Sondland admits he didn't get direct orders from Trump personally to commit a quid pro quo, it seems, and radical left wingers have taken over Congress and stolen the middle ground in media coverage from Faux.<br /></i><br /><br />If the Radical Left has taken over Congress, then where is my National Health Care?<br />Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-56906235200629628222019-11-20T09:50:21.966-08:002019-11-20T09:50:21.966-08:00@Dr. Guardian reports today that they have succes...@Dr. Guardian reports today that they have successfully induced suspended animation in humans: <br />Humans put into suspended animation for first time<br /><br />Groundbreaking trial in US rapidly cools trauma victims with catastrophic injury to buy more time for surgery<br /><br />https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2019/nov/20/donald-trump-news-today-live-impeachment-hearings-gordon-sondland-ukraine-republicans-latest-updates<br /><br />Ian Sample Science editor<br />@iansample<br /><br />Wed 20 Nov 2019 10.06 EST<br />Last modified on Wed 20 Nov 2019 11.09 EST<br /><br /> At the University of Maryland doctors are trialling EPR, emergency preservation and resuscitation, for patients. Photograph: Sergey Mironov/Alamy<br /><br />Doctors have put humans into a state of suspended animation for the first time in a groundbreaking trial that aims to buy more time for surgeons to save seriously injured patients.<br /><br />The process involves rapidly cooling the brain to less than 10C by replacing the patient’s blood with ice-cold saline solution. Typically the solution is pumped directly into the aorta, the main artery that carries blood away from the heart to the rest of the body.Zepp Jamiesonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03024670772812706971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-85179583000194547732019-11-20T09:46:09.617-08:002019-11-20T09:46:09.617-08:00@Matthew. The foxnews.com page is massively enter...@Matthew. The foxnews.com page is massively entertaining this morning. Sondland admits he didn't get direct orders from Trump personally to commit a quid pro quo, it seems, and radical left wingers have taken over Congress and stolen the middle ground in media coverage from Faux.Zepp Jamiesonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03024670772812706971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-91339649778419506652019-11-20T09:43:34.754-08:002019-11-20T09:43:34.754-08:00@Dr. That reminds me of the old joke: "I did...@Dr. That reminds me of the old joke: "I didn't want to die alone and in bed. That's why I became a bus driver."<br /><br />I've only had one accident, rear-ended a Volvo back in 1968, non-injury. Last moving violation 1993. So a good driver.<br /><br />But I'm not getting any younger, and I'm hoping that getting a self-driving car in the next decade will extend my automotive freedom beyond my natural limits.Zepp Jamiesonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03024670772812706971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-22328367932359565372019-11-20T09:05:28.316-08:002019-11-20T09:05:28.316-08:00Oh my, history being made this morning. Sondaland ...Oh my, history being made this morning. Sondaland throwing everyone else under the bus and notably lying about his own involvement / knowledge. Is this enough *pizzazz*?matthewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17757867868731829206noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-49494109656688895202019-11-20T09:05:15.966-08:002019-11-20T09:05:15.966-08:00Jon S:
As far as the onboard systems were concern...Jon S:<br /><i><br />As far as the onboard systems were concerned, what they saw was a system glitch, of no more import than swirling leaves, because the engineers simply had not considered jaywalking to be an issue.<br /></i><br /><br />That's part of what I'm getting at. I'm not sure how much they've considered <b>weather</b> to be an issue. My wife keeps pointing out that self-driving cars seem to be developed, manufactured, and tested in California and in Japan, but not in places where road conditions are hampered by snow, or where signals like road striping are obscured by snow.<br /><br />Howard Brazee:<br /><i><br />What has happened when technology failed in the past?<br />...<br />Knowing how to use a choke won't help if the computer that makes the choke unnecessary fails.<br /></i><br /><br />Although I sound as if I'm bashing all new technology, I'm really not. Just saying that one must consider the costs as well as the benefits. If motorized vehicles make life 10000% more efficient, despite the (say) 0.0001% of times when a horse-drawn carriage would really have been helpful, that's still a decent trade-off. My concern is when a new failure mode is much more dangerous or deadly--when the thing that happens only 0.0001% of the time is <b>so</b> bad that you still would prefer not to have it happen.<br /><br /><i><br />When my phone fails to tell me about a traffic jam, I still know how to *not* avoid it just as I always failed to avoid them.<br /></i><br /><br />Heh.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-53041908910500372302019-11-20T07:48:50.092-08:002019-11-20T07:48:50.092-08:00Larry Hart said...
"I'm not exactly a lud...Larry Hart said...<br />"<i>I'm not exactly a luddite, but I am that guy who thinks more about what happens when technology fails."</i><br /><br />Reminds me of a long back and forth argument I had with someone on the CosmoQuest forum years ago about a prototype enclosed "motorcycle" that utilized gyroscopes that the designers hoped to make stabilize and steer the machine. The other guy was arguing that this would be great because people that don't know how to ride motorcycles will be able to operate this thing. I was arguing that this was not necessarily a good thing. What really got him worked up though was me arguing that regardless of how automated the control system might be knowing the dynamics of two wheeled single track vehicles (which are quite different from 4 wheeled vehicles) would always be an advantage to an operator. I was surprised that anyone would deny that, but he did. I kept offering scenarios in which it would be helpful and each time he became more upset.<br /><br />The machine never came close to making it to market. Didn't surprise me as it seemed apparent to me that the design team didn't actually know how motorcycles steer or maintain stability.Darrell Ehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14054311762477388637noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-29580216470783436622019-11-20T07:45:59.412-08:002019-11-20T07:45:59.412-08:00Sci fi story: Guys who froze themselve expect to b...Sci fi story: Guys who froze themselve expect to be revivied when the tech is available to fix em. Pay for it and live off their investments. But future folk rule that world and simply refuse to recognize those investments, or re-apply them.<br /><br />It's what THEY value that matters. And what work woulf you do? Well there's a skill we mostly taught every citizen that I doubt futur generations will... driver. If a time comes when you can't trust the puters because of some change...David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-39953930815235150142019-11-20T06:54:40.888-08:002019-11-20T06:54:40.888-08:00What has happened when technology failed in the pa...What has happened when technology failed in the past?<br /><br />When my kids learned to drive, I had an excuse to buy a standard transmission car. They can drive standard transmissions, but their kids haven't driven one. But it doesn't make sense to speculate on automatic transmissions failing and they need to drive standard shift cars. Or that cars fail and they will need to learn all of the skills involved in using horse-drawn carriages.<br /><br />People regret when the youth don't learn the skills that were necessary for us. I see lots of advantages in learning the skills required to use slide rules. But I don't think slide rules will be needed as backups to modern technology.<br /><br />Knowing how to use a choke won't help if the computer that makes the choke unnecessary fails.<br /><br />When my phone fails to tell me about a traffic jam, I still know how to *not* avoid it just as I always failed to avoid them.<br />Howard Brazeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08837948125432719131noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-15286834972343224252019-11-20T06:44:43.282-08:002019-11-20T06:44:43.282-08:00You also have to watch out for the blind spots in ...You also have to watch out for the blind spots in the programmers' worldviews. The fatal collision in Phoenix apparently happened because no one had programmed the car to recognize a pedestrian who wasn't in a crosswalk, or the outline of a bicycle at all. (And the human on board was supposed to be monitoring the situation, yes, but that goes back to Alfred's point about human error.) As far as the onboard systems were concerned, what they saw was a system glitch, of no more import than swirling leaves, because the engineers simply had not considered jaywalking to be an issue.Jon S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13585842845661267920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-83022596602416217952019-11-20T06:30:55.397-08:002019-11-20T06:30:55.397-08:00@Howard Brazee,
I'm not exactly a luddite, bu...@Howard Brazee,<br /><br />I'm not exactly a luddite, but I am that guy who thinks more about what happens when technology <b>fails</b>. All those things that you mentioned cars can do now are great, but what happens when someone falls out of the habit of (say) checking his blind spots because the car does it for him, but one day the light is burned out or the sensor fails? GPS is great, but I never want to get to where I'm helpless to get somewhere without it.<br /><br />Alfred mentions above that humans become bored while driving, causing them to miss cues. I do acknowledge that. However, having a self-driving co-pilot could tend to make that worse rather than better. You get so used to the car driving itself that you forget that you need to keep an eye on possible exceptional cases.<br /><br />I'm not arguing against benefits of the technology, just pointing out the other side of the ledger that I think some proponents ignore too cavalierly. <br /><br />Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-15412434400437090032019-11-20T05:51:18.539-08:002019-11-20T05:51:18.539-08:00Remember the old SF with robot chauffers getting i...Remember the old SF with robot chauffers getting into the front seat and driving the cars?<br /><br />Instead, we have incrementally smart cars. They're smart enough to start every time without worrying about the choke, they are smart enough to flash on the mirror when another car is in the blind spot, they are smart enough to slam on the brakes when we are backing up towards a kid on a tricycle. And we use our phones to tell us how to get around traffic jams.<br /><br />Some cars film and report on vandalism when parked.<br /><br />========================<br /><br />Incrementally smart humans are going to come as well.Howard Brazeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08837948125432719131noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-27253617364768543002019-11-20T00:21:30.164-08:002019-11-20T00:21:30.164-08:00I agree with Alfred
At the moment Tesla's auto...I agree with Alfred<br />At the moment Tesla's autopilot is more like having a "Co-pilot" that does not get tired and has eyes pointing in every direction<br />Or at least that is what it is meant to beduncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-84306595319428680952019-11-19T22:10:07.419-08:002019-11-19T22:10:07.419-08:00Larry,
No extrapolation allowed here. We should a...Larry,<br /><br />No extrapolation allowed here. We should admit that we don't know how they will fare at scale, but so far the numbers are encouraging. Some of the accidents that involve cars trying to guide themselves are kinda spectacular, but there are are a fair number of examples where the software minimized the damage and loss of life.<br /><br />We aren't at the fully autonomous stage yet, so we shouldn't extrapolate there either. What we do have numbers for is the driver assistance modules that 1) bring cars to a stop before rear-ending someone, 2) detect lane changes that would lead to collisions and warn, and 3) detect driver distraction/sleepy situations and warn.<br /><br />Look at some of what is happening at Tesla and you'll find a bit of Elon Musk hype on top of what is probably solid improvements in safety. Ignore the hype, though, and he and his team have probably already saved a lot of lives and others from more serious injuries.<br /><br />The big gain we get from our incremental steps in this direction is systems that don't get bored. Think about that. Humans as drivers has got to be one of the stupidest things we ever decided everyone should do... except what other option did we have? Humans get bored while piloting a hunka metal massing about 1000kg down a road at over 100 kmh. Crazy that we would ride it. Crazy that we'd ride them next to other humans doing the same and risking getting bored. So we text each other to occupy our minds? Ugh.<br /><br />In the old, more violent days we used to be easily able to find someone who lost someone close to them by murder. Not so much today. Yay! Instead, we are hard pressed to avoid finding someone near us who has NOT lost someone near to them by car. Expand that to include serious injury instead of death, and there probably aren't any of us left in the {no suffering} set. We've all been close to someone who was seriously injured? I suspect so.<br /><br />When we can finally avoid this deadly decision we made a few generations ago, the grandkids are going to wonder what the hell was wrong with us. Mobility was THAT necessary to us, but they won't get it and I'll be happy about it.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-73992680578201557782019-11-19T21:41:56.594-08:002019-11-19T21:41:56.594-08:00If you program a self driving car to drive like an...If you program a self driving car to drive like an old granny, despite passengers yelling to speed up... then you can program it to ignore them. David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-50322763232543269392019-11-19T19:00:44.329-08:002019-11-19T19:00:44.329-08:00Alfred Differ:
Yet… the self-driving vehicles ten...Alfred Differ:<br /><i><br />Yet… the self-driving vehicles tend to kill fewer of us that we do when we drive.<br /></i><br /><br />Is that really true? Per car? Per mile driven? Extrapolated to what they'll do when they're all over the road, having to interact with each other as well as with pedestrians? Or in climates that have snow and ice on the roads?<br /><br />I understand that I'm thinking anecdotally and don't have statistics to back me up. It just seems to me that the reason that there are fewer deaths due to self-driving cars is that there are fewer self-driving cars. And that they (so far) operate in more controlled conditions than is the general case.<br /><br />If you've got hard numbers to back up a claim that self-driving cars are actually safer, I'd be happy to be convinced.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-70678020281753200032019-11-19T16:01:10.169-08:002019-11-19T16:01:10.169-08:00I [heart] Randall Munroe. 8)
When that one came o...I [heart] Randall Munroe. 8)<br /><br />When that one came out, my first thought was ‘Yes! Bury it!’<br /><br />My next thought was… well… didn’t we think much the same concerning self-driving vehicles? Someday, maybe we could do that when we had god-like software skills? Hmm… Are we there yet? Nah. Yet… the self-driving vehicles tend to kill fewer of us that we do when we drive. Maybe we only need demigod-like skills? Apparently not. We just need a few million creative people poking at various parts of the many problems to be solved. Yay Enlightenment!<br /><br />Digital voting won’t happen in one fell swoop. We will solve it by solving apparently unrelated problems. ‘Connections Style’ aka ‘Watch more James Burke’.<br /><br />Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-15654529542039499892019-11-19T15:33:34.101-08:002019-11-19T15:33:34.101-08:00Oh, and lest we forget how our Asian allies - who ...Oh, and lest we forget how our Asian allies - who had been ready with the Trans Pacific Partnership to stand up to Beijing - now see no choice but to cozy up to the new Great Power, even signing off on Chin's grab of most of the South China Sea.<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-70264428781729996932019-11-19T14:58:23.013-08:002019-11-19T14:58:23.013-08:00The most systematic and consistent policy of the T...The most systematic and consistent policy of the Trump Administration has been the demolition of all our alliances. (And sciences - another topic.) See these links, which prove that DT is not finished being useful to his Kremlin master. First: a China -South Korea military agreement was prompted by The administrations relentless hostility and demands upon Seoul. <br /><br />https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/11/18/china-signs-defence-agreement-south-korea-us-angers-seoul-demand/<br /><br /> And this on the breakdown in US - South Korea talks:<br />https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/11/19/asia-pacific/us-south-korea-defense-cost-talks-trump/<br /><br />And how our top allies are responding to increasing inability to rely on America, by forging a European military coalition:<br /><br />https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-defence/european-defense-coalition-launched-in-paris-idUSKCN1NC291<br /><br />Let's not forget how Ol' Two Scoops betrayed our Kurdish allies. And tried to undermine Ukraine's struggle with Russia.<br /> And then there is this: Lil' Kim snubs his "lover" Trump:<br /><br />https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/north-korea-snubs-trump-saying-he-hasnt-earned-a-new-summit-to-brag-about/2019/11/18/4506879c-0a27-11ea-8397-a955cd542d00_story.html<br /><br />Oh, but this is just a sampling. In every case, the aim is to weaken the West and USA in favor of Russia and China.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-16407129173493277242019-11-19T14:42:35.888-08:002019-11-19T14:42:35.888-08:00Hmmm, "accelerationism" sounds like the ...Hmmm, "accelerationism" sounds like the darker mirror to the leftist notion that allowing a Donald Trump presidency to harm the country would cause voters to demand rescue from socialist politicians.<br /><br />It doesn't work for the left. The dynamic may be different on the right, but it doesn't seem likely to work for them either. Instead, I hope that white supremacists will be treated the way Holnists are in a certain novel, with deadly enemies dropping their feuding to join forces and hang the motherfuckers.<br />Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-4479512076113557062019-11-19T12:32:18.393-08:002019-11-19T12:32:18.393-08:00Interesting article on Accelerationism--basically ...Interesting article on Accelerationism--basically a white supremacist philosophy that the best way to bring about the wanted change is to help society collapse through violence. A dangerous kibble breeding-ground from the looks of it. (Hat tip to P.Z. Myers for the link.)<br /><br />https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/11/11/20882005/accelerationism-white-supremacy-christchurchA.F. Reyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08102355714883828348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-76207031023866608632019-11-19T11:55:41.181-08:002019-11-19T11:55:41.181-08:00Blockchain verification of votes... I think Randal...Blockchain verification of votes... I think Randall Munroe had something to say on the topic.<br /><br /><a href="https://xkcd.com/2030/" rel="nofollow">Voting Software</a>Jon S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13585842845661267920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-17112105603442963122019-11-19T11:49:37.056-08:002019-11-19T11:49:37.056-08:00Conducting democracy in populations of billions or...Conducting democracy in populations of billions or even trillions is a strange realm that Asimov and Brin have ventured into (and others too, I'm sure). It may be that the better path is to spread the population density so thin that shouting votes in the Athenian agora might work again. Distributed computation has fabulous advantages. Perhaps distributed governance could too. Estonia is moving towards a system where anyone, anywhere, anytime could be a 'citizen'. I don't pretend to understand it, but there are serious thinkers at work on it.scidatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04992209167553267488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-40346654146383478802019-11-19T11:28:05.048-08:002019-11-19T11:28:05.048-08:00David Smelser,
I’d guess there will have to be a ...David Smelser,<br /><br />I’d guess there will have to be a certification process up front where devices are created and programmed and a chain-of-evidence process that tracks the devices and changes to them afterward. The devices themselves would have to have some internal equipment offering an encrypted and signed message digest representing their internal state so validation tests can be run comparing what-should-be to what-is. Ideally, all of this would run across the network to legitimize and entire precinct just before they open their polling stations and confirmation failures would call attention to misbehaving or tampered with systems.<br /><br />Over the longer haul, though, I suspect the move will be away from official polling stations to digital voting using our own devices. A certified app on my phone would be enough to be the ‘device’, so people would have to noodle out how to ensure I don’t unlock the app and then hand my phone to the person pressuring me to vote a particular way. That’s a longer project that abandons the secure, controlled space of a voting booth and risks ballot integrity and confidentiality, but we are already dealing with this for mail-in ballots and learning the ropes.<br /><br />Chain-of-evidence processes can be placed on a properly run blockchain db. It’s all about producing message digests that represent the state of a system and then recording them.<br /><br />The really neat thing about digital voting using PKI is that we get to take future historians into account. Keys in use today might protect the confidentiality of my ballot, but 50 years from now I’d expect they could be broken en masse. Maybe 30 years? Depends on how far the quantum computing folks get and how fast. Future academics might have a treasure trove of data to explore that we might not mind them having once enough time passes.<br />Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.com