tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post7960558815153943776..comments2024-03-27T23:12:08.917-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: What will - what won't happen?David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger89125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-2525701596476721562018-04-24T15:41:36.194-07:002018-04-24T15:41:36.194-07:00onward
onwardonward<br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-14450427703807607972018-04-24T15:35:16.321-07:002018-04-24T15:35:16.321-07:00Alfred Differ:
Are you trying to tell me that Amer...Alfred Differ:<br />Are you trying to tell me that American politicians act in good faith?<br />I guess my mistake is to confuse the politicians of Latin America with the politicians of the United States. But if it happens that American politicians only own a fifth of the evil that politicians in Latin America possess, then you have very dangerous leaders. But maybe not all politicians are malignant ... Do you really have honest politicians? That would be something worth seeing!<br />I suppose the Kennedys were killed by mere chance. I'm so bad at accusing Republican politicians of that! And there are those matters of the ...... Houuu. I think I already said too much.<br />Whatever. Maybe I'm wrong. I've been wrong before ... In other very different matters. But yes. I was wrong before.<br />The evils of the world are not our fault. That is the important thing.<br /><br />Winter7<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-43919159566438806582018-04-24T15:22:04.332-07:002018-04-24T15:22:04.332-07:00Occam is hilarious! He didn't even follow the...Occam is hilarious! He didn't even follow the thread:<br /><br />""Bullshit again. Remove the outliers... Detroit, Chicago and Utah... and murder rates are HIGHER in average red areas thnan blue."<br /><br />"Yeah sociotard, if the data doesn't fit your hypothesis start removing the data that doesn't fit until you reach the conclusion that you started with. that is how science is done."<br /><br />Except, Occam, I did not have to limit myself! Sociotard himself showed that there's no need to remove the extreme outliers. And they ARE *Extreme* outliers. Even with Utah hauling upward on red stats and Chicago dragging blue ones, the blue murder rate is fantastically lower.<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-62811190375116826012018-04-24T12:36:35.838-07:002018-04-24T12:36:35.838-07:00@LarryHart | It might be in English fluency thing....@LarryHart | It might be in English fluency thing. He IS trying. 8)<br /><br />@winter7 | Our politicians are no more naive than yours. What I'm pointing out is that there are limits on what they CAN know and CAN do. They aren't all-knowing or all-powerful, but most importantly, they aren't as potent as they'd like us to believe they are. They aren't even as potent as THEY believe they are.<br /><br />I'm not even remotely concerned about them knowing what I think about them. My opinions are fairly mixed most of the time and I'm quite willing to tell them any of it face-to-face. Many times, I'd prefer they DID know.<br /><br />There is a fundamental limit on what they can know or do, though. They are human and have exactly one brain to use and no more than 24 hours in a day to use it. They simply cannot pay attention to everything that matters to the rest of us. Even with a large staff and some of the tasks delegated to them, they can't do it. What they can do with what they know is even more limited. This doesn't apply only to politicians, though. It applies to all of us.<br /><br />When you want something big done, the only way it will ever get done is when a lot of human-sized hands and minds decide to do it. We don’t have to centralize what we want done and get our leaders to do it. All we have to do is persuade each other and then have the leaders help with the simpler tasks coordinating us.<br /><br />Here’s a quick example. How many people were involved in putting Americans on the Moon between 1961 and 1972? What roles did our leadership play?Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-32364802330916789392018-04-24T12:27:18.839-07:002018-04-24T12:27:18.839-07:00LarryHart:
No. I do not imply that. I mean there&...LarryHart:<br /><br />No. I do not imply that. I mean there's nothing wrong with pretending to agree with the established order. Remember the "El Zorro" television series? In that series, the hero feigned indifference in matters of politics and social justice. But the hero was actually "El Zorro", defender of the poor and oppressed.<br />In any case, the one that can be pointed out would be me, because I use a pseudonym. But like Alfred. I use common sense. Strategy is everything, and that causes some communication problems among those who visit this website. (Remember the reason why Spider-Man and Batman wear masks) (strategy) (only one aspect of the innumerable strategies that should never be left out)<br /><br />Winter7<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-77313922555401944672018-04-24T12:21:55.555-07:002018-04-24T12:21:55.555-07:00On some points, I grant her view. But on that one-...<i>On some points, I grant her view. But on that one--every favor must be immediately paid for in cash so that no one ever owes anyone anything beyond trading of value--I fault not only her writing skills, but her core idea itself. That would not be a better way of life. It would be a pathologically lonely one.</i><br /><br />Hmm...I didn't notice that point in the novel, but then I skipped to the end after a hundred pages or so (fearing that I would bash my head in with the book because I detested the characters so much--a reasonable fear at the 1000+ pages!).<br /><br />But I do recall a "novel" that had such a society.<br /><br />Barry Longyear's <i>Circus World</i> had these little round chits that were used to pay for small favors by the people of that world. They were basically worthless, but were used to show appreciation for things like sharing a fire. It seems to me to be more a social convention than a truly economic one.<br /><br />So I wouldn't say it would be necessarily a more lonely life, if handled correctly.A.F. Reynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-30078246034918612972018-04-24T09:57:51.335-07:002018-04-24T09:57:51.335-07:00@Winter7,
If you think Alfred is saying nice thin...@Winter7,<br /><br />If you think Alfred is saying nice things about politicians because he's afraid of being eavesdropped upon, I don't think you've been paying attention.<br />LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-3980349575340755062018-04-24T09:33:51.921-07:002018-04-24T09:33:51.921-07:00
Alfred Differ:
But before we talked at length a...<br /><br />Alfred Differ:<br /><br />But before we talked at length about the responsibility of politicians in the matter ..... ¿Should I assume that American politicians are naive souls who do not know what is happening?<br />(Alfred, I doubt that American politicians are listening to us right now.) Do not worry (Donald Trump is probably busy chasing teen scholars in the halls of the White House) <br /> <br />Winter7<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-66821979904708964342018-04-24T07:49:05.715-07:002018-04-24T07:49:05.715-07:00"
Bullshit again. Remove the outliers... Detr...<br />"<br />Bullshit again. Remove the outliers... Detroit, Chicago and Utah... and murder rates are HIGHER in average red areas thnan blue."<br /><br />Yeah sociotard, if the data doesn't fit your hypothesis start removing the data that doesn't fit until you reach the conclusion that you started with. that is how science is done.occam's comicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-26848854570185300282018-04-24T06:13:55.213-07:002018-04-24T06:13:55.213-07:00Alfred Differ:
I don't walk very often when ...Alfred Differ:<br /><i><br /> I don't walk very often when driving is easier,...<br /></i><br /><br />Well, you live in California. I forget which movie it is in which Steve Martin (as a resident of Los Angeles) walks out his front door, gets into his car, drives 20 feet forward, gets out, and walks to the neighbor's front door. But it sure got a big laugh/applause reaction from the audience. It's funny because it's true. LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-65099607924940798472018-04-24T06:05:45.726-07:002018-04-24T06:05:45.726-07:00Alfred Differ:
Ayn Rand was about as good as des...Alfred Differ:<br /><i><br /> Ayn Rand was about as good as describing real humans as were the Soviet Communists she despised.<br /></i><br /><br />I don't think she ever meant to describe human civilization as it really was, so much as what she considered an idealized version. Human civilization as it <b>should</b> be, or the way it would <b>work much better</b> than it does. The religious equivalent would be a treatise on the way civilization might have evolved had mankind not fallen from Grace.<br /><br />On some points, I grant her view. But on that one--every favor must be immediately paid for in cash so that no one ever owes anyone anything beyond trading of value--I fault not only her writing skills, but her core idea itself. That would not be a better way of life. It would be a pathologically lonely one.<br /><br /><i>However, you probably did give your mother 'gold coins' in exchange. Think about what you actually gave her in return and tell me it wasn't worth more... to her. 8)<br /></i><br /><br />That's exactly my point. Cash would have been a poor substitute. Making the transaction all <b>about</b> cash--"Here's a ten-spot, Mom. Now we're even."--would have been insulting to the point of poisoning the entire thing. Rand presents that as the optimization of human interaction, whereas I see it instead as, to use a term I just made up now, a <i>pessimization</i>.<br /><br />LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-53194676256798792912018-04-24T05:46:40.220-07:002018-04-24T05:46:40.220-07:00I beg to differ Alfred. The finest thing the Scots...I beg to differ Alfred. The finest thing the Scots did for the world is Scotch whisky.Darrell Ehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14054311762477388637noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-31183926184853295862018-04-24T04:09:09.267-07:002018-04-24T04:09:09.267-07:00"What the Scots did for the world that made u..."What the Scots did for the world that made up for everything"<br /><br />That implies that we did something that needed to be "made up for"!<br /><br />duncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-26619911355790171092018-04-23T22:40:40.424-07:002018-04-23T22:40:40.424-07:00@winter7 | Real Scotsmen often have an issue with ...@winter7 | Real Scotsmen often have an issue with how their history is portrayed. Heroes are fun to watch in the movies and I'm sure there were some real ones now and then. Reality is much more embarrassing. Fortunately, every nation has betrayals, ineptness, and pig-headed stubbornness a-plenty in the stories of their people. 8)<br /><br />What the Scots did for the world that made up for everything (in my not so humble opinion) was produce the finest version of the Enlightenment philosophy ever. They took Liberalism as an infant from the English, raised it into its early childhood, and then brought it to America. They produced what a few fine French thinkers could build upon and support, but the French people failed to understand in their bloodbath revolution. If you want heroes, look to the Scotsmen who came later who provided a less blood-curdling vision of the future.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-52127676935890745292018-04-23T22:23:50.020-07:002018-04-23T22:23:50.020-07:00@winter7 | It's NOT my fault? Heh. How would y...@winter7 | It's NOT my fault? Heh. How would you know? 8)<br /><br />Seriously, though, there are a lot of small things individuals can do that add up to an awful lot of saved carbon. I did my part by living close to work so I didn't have to drive very far. That's conserved carbon. I turn off lights, double up errands to save more fuel, and a few other things, but I don't carpool, I don't walk very often when driving is easier, and a few other things like that. I live close enough to work I could buy an electric vehicle and skip gasoline completely, but I haven't... yet.<br /><br />I used to advocate strongly for putting a price on carbon exhausted into the atmosphere, but that fight is essentially unwinnable in the US right now. I've been looking at other fights worth supporting that might complete before I'm in the grave. 8)<br /><br />US Leaders pick up on what people do occasionally. I'm quite certain of this as I've seen a lot of it. Marketers pick up that information first, though, and act on what they learn. For example, if my gasoline consumption goes down (along with a few million others around me) they adjust their projections and that moves where political lobbying money might get spent. Whether that gets through to politicians can be hit-or-miss, but when they do notice many of them like to pretend they are out in front of the movement. Don't be fooled, though. They aren't.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-9769570498808750632018-04-23T22:04:02.167-07:002018-04-23T22:04:02.167-07:00Sociotard: while I applaud taking a critical look ...Sociotard: while I applaud taking a critical look to a claim and presenting evidence, there are a host of problems with taking GINI alone as a term to compare equality.<br /><br />(1) if two states have equal GINI coefficients in 2010 but one admits a large number of poorer immigrants while the other does not, the GINI coefficient will show the more 'accepting' state had greater inequality, even if it had better policies to mitigate inequality (better health care, education, etc.). Indeed, immigration policies alone could account for high statistical inequality for both NY and CA.<br /><br />(2) GINI captures income distribution, not asset accumulation. In certain 'high GINI' states, like Connecticut DC, and CA, asset accumulation (e.g. home property values) would, if counted, smooth out the raw GINI.<br /><br />(3) income itself is easily and often gamed - a waitress earning $30k + tips and a software engineer earning $40k + options are probably not earning exactly comparable incomes.<br /><br /> will shi is that most income for most of the richest isn't captured as 'income' by any available data sets. I know of efforts to develop better measures of equality, but believe most are still being developed/accepted.<br /><br />That said, your argument of a negative correlation in America is interesting. You might also improve it by comparing violent crime rates rather than homicides (most violent crimes can potentially become homicides, but it could be that blue states have better health systems). donzelionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05991849781932619746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-23326310230679646372018-04-23T21:54:11.182-07:002018-04-23T21:54:11.182-07:00Jon S:
Yes. Sir William Wallace was executed. ¿But...Jon S:<br />Yes. Sir William Wallace was executed. ¿But would not you have done the same if you had been in their place? ¿Do not? ¿Why? ¿Is the right of the feudal lord more important? Are not heroes necessary?<br />It is evident that we think in a different way. But that's good to be able to see all the prospects of a problem ...... <br />¡Wallace! ¡Wallace! ¡Wallace! ¡Wallace! ¡Alba gu bràth!<br /><br />Sir Winter7<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-7528653464691467862018-04-23T21:39:45.310-07:002018-04-23T21:39:45.310-07:00Alfred Differ:
Yes. I guess we do not agree on the...<br />Alfred Differ:<br />Yes. I guess we do not agree on the allocation of blame on the issue of climate disaster. For me. I know that disaster is not my fault. And it's not your fault, Alfred.<br /><br />Winter7Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-70923863089975601732018-04-23T21:29:50.659-07:002018-04-23T21:29:50.659-07:00Oh that is interesting. If I break up Red-purple-B...Oh that is interesting. If I break up Red-purple-Blue (on the theory that their governance styles would be in-group similar), then the R2 value for GINI to Homicide jumps.<br />Red 0.47 Purple 0.52 Blue 0.00072<br /><br />So the trend is dominant in most states, but Blue state don't fit at all.sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-74844276973506802952018-04-23T21:02:54.644-07:002018-04-23T21:02:54.644-07:00Okay, I went and checked:
Plotting GINI and homic...Okay, I went and checked:<br /><br />Plotting GINI and homicide rates, there's only a 0.14 R2 value. That is garbage. Brin's initial argument was garbage.<br /><br />Checking the Median numbers<br /><br />Red States have a homicide rate of 5.7 and a GINI of 0.4545<br />Purple States have a homicide rate of 5.2 and a GINI of 0.451<br />Blue States have a homicide rate of 2.8 and a GINI of 0.464<br /><br />Good News for Brin: The blue states have a much better homicide rate, even though they have higher inequality.<br />Bad news for Brin: I don't think he looked into the "inequality brings homicide" argument much before linking.<br /><br /><br /><br />sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-72047876080960823932018-04-23T20:59:56.648-07:002018-04-23T20:59:56.648-07:00Sociotard: The McCarthy piece you linked to is dis...Sociotard: The McCarthy piece you linked to is disingenuous. Cohen might have requested that the hearing be conducted en camera; he filed his motion for a public hearing. Oops. He should have known what he said in court might come out.<br /><br />Cohen may have expected that at his hearing, the judge would decide whether to permit him to name clients under seal. But he should have known that his attempt to do so would face an objection - either from the prosecutors, or the press. <br /><br />When the NYT objected to keeping Hannity's name under seal, Cohen should have presented a brief on point to the judge about why the law prevented disclosure. He didn't. <br /><br />Which means that either Cohen is the worst attorney in the country, OR he wanted Hannity's name to become public (against his protest), OR he simply couldn't find the law that would have ensured Hannity's name stayed private.<br /><br />The latter is likely the case, since McCarthy - who is no stranger to naming uncharged third parties in investigations - couldn't find any such rule of law, and instead, he relied on the 'US Attorney Manual' (yes, it's been judicially endorsed, no, that doesn't make it a rule). McCarthy writes as if the prosecutors violated a sacred canon - 'outrageous!' - at worst, they violated the US Attorney Manual's polite suggestion to not name uncharged third parties.<br /><br />My read of the manual is somewhat different from McCarthy's. The requirement that US Attorneys be 'sensitive to the privacy and reputation interests of uncharged third-parties' is treated quite differently from the imperative to protect witnesses (the reason why certain people are never named once placed under seal - the preservation of those secrets is indeed a 'sacred canon'). That policy interest gives way in the face of a strong public interest. But either way, it's a policy, not a 'judicial norm.' And the norm as written contemplates private citizens who can't easily defend themselves in public - Hannity isn't exactly lacking in means of accessing the media and defending his reputation, nor has he taken pains to distance himself from Trump or Trump's lawyer.donzelionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05991849781932619746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-24770807464116005942018-04-23T20:28:33.804-07:002018-04-23T20:28:33.804-07:00Okay, lets start this over
Along similar lines… “W...Okay, lets start this over<br /><i>Along similar lines… “Why Inequality Predicts Homicide Rates Better Than Any Other Variable The surprising factors driving murder rates: income inequality and respect.” </i><br /><br /><b>Brin just said more unequal places have higher homicide rates than less unequal places</b><br /><br />I then showed that blue places have more inequality than red . . . and suddenly the unequal blue states have lower homicide rates and what the heck happened to your original argument?<br /><br />And yes, people are leaving California. More poor than middle class, but net middle class too.<br /><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/19/californians-fed-up-with-housing-costs-and-taxes-are-fleeing-state.html" rel="nofollow">https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/19/californians-fed-up-with-housing-costs-and-taxes-are-fleeing-state.html</a>sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-24249374763912031852018-04-23T19:38:53.709-07:002018-04-23T19:38:53.709-07:00Dr Brin quotes the Washington Post:
"Red Ame...Dr Brin quotes the Washington Post:<br /><i><br />"Red America and blue America depend on each other. That’s how it should be."<br /></i><br /><br />Yes, but that's not the same thing as Red <b>states</b> and Blue <b>states</b>. A lot of rural Red America is inside the borders of blue states. Illinois is almost all farmland, and some of the best farmland in the country at that. I seem to remember hearing something about food coming from California as well. :)<br /><br /><br /><br />LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-9721951901995230862018-04-23T19:31:25.598-07:002018-04-23T19:31:25.598-07:00@LarryHart | Ayn Rand was about as good as describ...@LarryHart | Ayn Rand was about as good as describing real humans as were the Soviet Communists she despised.<br /><br />However, you probably did give your mother 'gold coins' in exchange. Think about what you actually gave her in return and tell me it wasn't worth more... to her. 8)<br /><br /><br />Optimizing for prudence isn't what humans do.<br />Focusing on prudence IS what many economists do. <br />Lots of philosopher's too starting around Kant's time.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-73367352682208430172018-04-23T19:29:48.189-07:002018-04-23T19:29:48.189-07:00Winter, perhaps you should have watched up to the ...Winter, perhaps you should have watched up to the end of <i>Braveheart</i> - when the rebellion against the Crown failed, and Sir William Wallace was publicly (and painfully!) executed for treason.<br /><br />Of course, the only part of the real First War for Scottish Independence the movie portrayed with anything resembling accuracy was the execution - for all the rest of it, those names existed, but the people and events shown have only a coincidental relationship with the actual events. (And in fact if William Wallace had engaged in a tryst with Isabella of France, as shown in the movie, we would likely have lost all sympathy for him - in reality, she was twelve years old at the time.)Jon S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13585842845661267920noreply@blogger.com