tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post7922526040788159007..comments2024-03-28T06:22:23.961-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: From Google Glass to License Plate Tracking: Transparency UpdatesDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger82125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-91594224052647373452013-08-11T23:25:50.909-07:002013-08-11T23:25:50.909-07:00I think this ever increasing monitoring might caus...I think this ever increasing monitoring might cause the cross section of society that just decides to dropout to also increase. People will start relying on ever cheaper tech (and energy?) to live simple lives in rural areas. The expensive medicine might be the one thing holding a lot of folks back from this right now. I'm trying to explore this idea in my novel.AJ Snookhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12268937863131362137noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-91484812392317806932013-07-29T20:33:44.245-07:002013-07-29T20:33:44.245-07:00@Randy - I disagree with your last set of numbers....@Randy - I disagree with your last set of numbers. However embedded in your argument is a much more important point. With lost jobs/lower wages, we lose the multiplier effect. Worse, we can lose entire industry ecosystems (like cars and car parts) which, in the case of Detroit, proved to be a death spiral.<br /><br />Economics generally start with equilibrium models, but that is not always a good way to model the world. <br /><br />Your point that real world data is more important than models is something I very strongly agree with. It is the only way to ensure that we build good models.Alex Tolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01556422553154817988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-9719911633153554102013-07-29T11:51:31.370-07:002013-07-29T11:51:31.370-07:00Alex, with great respect, this deserves a special ...Alex, with great respect, this deserves a special note:<br /><br /><i>"... workers will lose, but the rest of the country gains by having to pay less for those goods. ..."</i><br /><br />Nope.<br /><br />That's the theory all right, but the math doesn't work.<br /><br />Oh, sometimes it does. You grow bananas in Costa Rica and wheat in Kansas because of comparative advantage in climate, and shifting the Kansas banana production to Costa Rica probably enriches both. <br /><br />Or if you have a labor shortage, it makes sense to export low-margin jobs so you can shift workers to better-paying stuff. This is really good for the American worker since as a whole we're a pretty productive bunch.<br /><br />But otherwise ... do the math for the population as a whole. When the population loses $X of income due to job exports and prices fall $Y from cheaper imports, then the population as a whole is better off only if Y > X. There is nothing magical about the market that says that's gonna happen.<br /><br />In fact, it's unreasonable to think that lost buying power from lost wages is going to be made up by increased buying power from lower prices of imported goods (in the absence of natural comparative advantages or domestic labor shortages). Partly this is because of the lower productivity and costs of transportation from abroad, but mostly it's a reflection of the fact that the production costs saved from wage cuts, crappy working conditions and externalizing environmental costs don't go dollar-for-dollar into cutting consumer prices. Why would they? factory owners aren't running charities; they export jobs to make money, not to help America.<br /><br />Seriously: how cheap do car parts have to get to make up for the loss of the car part industry - and do you think they will ever get that cheap (... at least, before 3D printers make up the difference)?rewinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14008105385364113371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-85453763430612400052013-07-29T11:14:21.239-07:002013-07-29T11:14:21.239-07:00@Alex Tolley - if what I wrote sounds like dispara...@Alex Tolley - if what I wrote sounds like disparaging trade entirely, then I did not write clearly. The theory of comparative advantage is amply born out by evidence, I think we may agree.<br />However you may be suggesting that one problem is that comparative advantage changes; it is not static - for a real world example we can look at the auto parts industry. When the factories were *here* we had an advantage but the Chinese (not to demonize them, but they are serious players in the game) built their own factories. The "comparative advantage" of the Chinese auto part factory over the Rust Belt auto part factory is low wages, bad working conditions and environmental degradation ... plus a government that takes seriously the concept that the economy doesn't just magically feed its people.<br />I confess to a bit of impatience with theory-driven analysis rather than a fact-driven analysis; the example I gave of the 787 stands. "We" didn't build the parts to that aircraft around the world because of actual comparative advantage; the idea that fuselages built in Italy are so much better that those built in Wichita that it's worth paying the extra shipping costs is completely lacking in factual foundation. Labor rates are lower elsewhere NOT because they do a better job there, or because there is cheaper energy (Puget region hydropower is an excellent comparative advantage) or rare ore deposits or any other comparative advantage OTHER than government subsidies or the low wages themselves.<br />If the theory says that isn't happening, the facts say that the theory isn't right and a more pragmatic approach is called for.rewinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14008105385364113371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-9067530597862212262013-07-28T09:42:56.110-07:002013-07-28T09:42:56.110-07:00@Randy - you are essentially saying that non-zero ...@Randy - you are essentially saying that non-zero sum trade maintained by comparative advantage is untrue.<br /><br />If work is exported from country A to country B, it is certainly true that those country A workers will lose, but the rest of the country gains by having to pay less for those goods. <br /><br />I do agree with you when you raise the issue of state/municipal subsidies (no taxes, etc) to attract companies is a net loss (c.f. David Cay Johnston on this). This just unlevels the playing field.<br /><br />The Chinese may be playing a bit of a mercantilist game today, but it will not be sustainable and those US treasury holdings will have to be converted to tangible assets at some point.<br /><br />The bigger problem is that technical expertise and innovation move to where production is. This hollows out the technological capabilities of the state that is doing the production outsourcing. Alex Tolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01556422553154817988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-2334765296332665632013-07-28T08:10:00.603-07:002013-07-28T08:10:00.603-07:00Anti-mercantilism bah! as others commented, that&#...Anti-mercantilism bah! as others commented, that's not what I'm talking about.<br /><br /><b>Look at actual cases:</b> the Boeing 787. The story told us is that its parts were built around the world, so we could get entry into nations that would otherwise exclude us from their market. Accepting that story for a minute, what does it <i>mean</i> other than that when you are the only anti-mercantilist into the game, someone else ends up with your lunch?<br /><br />And the lunch is, of course, the jobs AND the technology.<br /><br />Playing off one batch of workers against another, resulting in lower wages for both. Playing off one government against another, results in more sweetheart deals and lower combined revenue for both. This is a losing game for ALL workers and ALL governments ... although in the short run, whoever offers the best bid stays ahead of the rest. <br /><br />Now if you want to argue that the result is that angry workers will organize to force better working conditions and wages, well and good - that might happen. History suggests that they might instead decide to blame their problem on Evil Others. But if the happier result of better conditions for all is to be achieved, then the FIRST STEP is recognizing the problem, which is the point of my comment. Exporting jobs from group of workers A to group of workers B impoverishes A without necessarily enriching B; mutual enrichment doesn't happen magically, it has to be put into the system against serious and well-organized resistance.<br /><br />To simplify: do you really want to tell the people of Detroit that they sacrificed their standard of living so that Asian oligarchs can thrive? I really think that if the proposition had been put to a vote, it might not have passed.rewinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14008105385364113371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-87652983126514616052013-07-27T20:29:54.078-07:002013-07-27T20:29:54.078-07:00Dr Brin,
When you mentioned Steve Martin and &quo...Dr Brin,<br /><br />When you mentioned Steve Martin and "CLEANING WOMAN???", I was indeed about to ask you if that was from "Dead Men Don't Wear Plaid".<br /><br />However, I can't for the life of me remember the specifics of the joke.<br /><br />Hey, give me a break. It's been 31 years. I know that exactly because I saw it as part of a double feature with a sneak preview of "ET".LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-75090358352629052372013-07-27T19:52:42.272-07:002013-07-27T19:52:42.272-07:00onward...onward...David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-26174721409136320202013-07-27T18:10:02.342-07:002013-07-27T18:10:02.342-07:00"it took jobs from American. And for 60 years...<i>"it took jobs from American. And for 60 years we made up for it with innovation. Till the turn of the century, when the American innovation miracle slowed down"</i><br /><br />I think I noticed the rot set in when some of the better business press intimated that there was no difference between micro chips and potato chips from a trade perspective.<br />While true in the short term, it was a clear sign of the hollowing out of US industry.<br />Alex Tolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01556422553154817988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-60922565734096870362013-07-27T17:40:49.017-07:002013-07-27T17:40:49.017-07:00"And yes, it took jobs from American. And for..."And yes, it took jobs from American. And for 60 years we made up for it with innovation"<br /><br />Yes - a bit<br /><br />But Randy was talking about the 70's onwards when the "profit" from increased productivity was taken exclusively by the 1%<br />This had little to do with jobs being exported and a lot to do with breaking the power of the common man (unions) <br />The example is Germany,<br />German companies exported jobs but the ones left at home kept increasing in value<br /><br />If the American worker had had a share of his own increase in productivity then there would be a ton of extra money to be spent in America on things like infrastructure that can't be outsourcedDuncan Cairncrossnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-48873783070015155102013-07-27T17:05:30.044-07:002013-07-27T17:05:30.044-07:00Randy, we deliberately chose an anti-mercantilist ...Randy, we deliberately chose an anti-mercantilist policy after WWII when MArshall et al set up Pax Americana. It was deliberate, in order not to repeat the errors of all other Pax powers.<br /><br />The results have been spectacular. Since 1960, textile sweat shops moved from the unionized US north to the non-union US south... (see IN THE HEAT OF THE NIGHT) ... till those unionized (NORMA RAE) ... then to Japan, then HK, Singapore, Taiwan... then Malaysia... then China and now Bangladesh. In each case, a couple of decades of horrible sweat shops...<br /><br />..left in their wake an engaged proletariat demanding better wages and conditions, with kids in school and hot water from a tap. NOT a sweet process, but one that has worked. (My own grandparents worked in textile sweat shops in NYC & Chicago.)<br /><br />And yes, it took jobs from American. And for 60 years we made up for it with innovation. Till the turn of the century, when the American innovation miracle slowed down, along with the War on Science and plunging into multi trillion$ land wars of attrition in Asia.<br /><br />===<br /><br />No one remembers DEAD MEN DON'T WEAR PLAID? David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-48105997739339735742013-07-27T16:39:52.548-07:002013-07-27T16:39:52.548-07:00Damn. Now I want to get a set of Storm Trooper arm...Damn. Now I want to get a set of Storm Trooper armor, and an extra-large red Star Trek shirt. When someone asks what I'm doing I'll say that I got time off from the Death Star to come to the Con and I wanted to cosplay as a Redshirt. ;)<br /><br />Rob H.Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-6510459469336883292013-07-27T16:18:17.375-07:002013-07-27T16:18:17.375-07:00As for Detroit: some would say that our national i...As for Detroit: some would say that our national industrial policy, centered as it is upon exporting jobs to low-wage nations, makes it difficult to sustain a middle class.<br /><br />Is there any doubt that if wages had kept up with productivity, Detroit and indeed our nation overall would be worrying about what to do with surpluses?rewinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14008105385364113371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-70853170149446649532013-07-27T16:14:38.823-07:002013-07-27T16:14:38.823-07:00Drek Maul was Darth Maul's little brother ... ...Drek Maul was Darth Maul's little brother ... the one that went to cons dressed as a Vulcan.rewinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14008105385364113371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36619114563866141762013-07-27T15:41:30.402-07:002013-07-27T15:41:30.402-07:00ALex, yes the citizen will have power discrepancie...ALex, yes the citizen will have power discrepancies wrt the mighty. That has always been true but we in the enlightenment developed three methods to equalize.<br /><br />1) Strong, transparent institutions.<br /><br />2) The ability to gather as hundreds of thousands of citizens in pooled interest groups like the ACLU and EFF who can use our dues to then hire top lawyers.<br /><br />3) Divide the mighty and sic elites against each other. Indeed, this is why the oligarchs try so hard to capture civil servants and agencies. It is why they gather for secret meetings. It is why Fox is waging war on independent science and journalism.<br /><br />But equalizing CAn happen! You and I are living proof.<br /><br />====<br /><br />"Cleaning woman..." Did someone just say CLEANING WOMAN!!!!????????<br /><br />Aw c'mon. No Steve Martin fans out there? Hilarious under-rated flick.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-62442385239556160972013-07-27T11:02:15.680-07:002013-07-27T11:02:15.680-07:00"What about privacy? Will we trade one Big Br...<i>"What about privacy? Will we trade one Big Brother tyrant for millions of little-brother busybodies? Well, one California company now offers a system that detects lenses a kilometer away, telling soldiers when they’re watched. Civilian versions are coming."</i><br /><br />What you are describing is an arms race, the "little people" always behind the latest surveillance tech of those with resources. <br /><br />I think that is a "tax on privacy"?<br />We make laws to prevent incurring such taxes on commercial information asymmetry, why is privacy so different?Alex Tolleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01556422553154817988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-69475999639103966472013-07-27T10:13:08.716-07:002013-07-27T10:13:08.716-07:00"die Putzfrau" = "Cleaning lady&quo..."die Putzfrau" = "Cleaning lady"<br /><br />"die Frau" is nothing more or less than German for "woman". Its use as a name title or in the context of a yeoman family is the only place where the context implies a married woman. <br /><br />In any compound noun, it just means "woman". <br /><br />"das Fraeulein" is a diminuitive form of "Frau" and means "young woman" or "girl", again only implying marital status when used as a name title. <br /><br />"Dreck" is corrupted mud, a good substitute term for mud that's been passed through the lower colon of any animal. :-) <br /><br />"Putz" in Yiddish means... something else. Robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07541997928359883625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-79647045565021979242013-07-27T03:59:45.849-07:002013-07-27T03:59:45.849-07:00http://www.gizmag.com/n-fix-nitrogen-fixation/2848...http://www.gizmag.com/n-fix-nitrogen-fixation/28482/<br /><br />"Nitrogen-fixing bacteria do occur in some varieties of Brazilian sugarcane, which is the reason such varieties of sugarcane are known for producing high yields. Nottingham’s Prof. Edward Cocking discovered that one strain of that bacteria could colonize all major crop plants, at a cellular level.<br /><br />The process that Cocking developed, based on his discovery, is known as N-Fix. It involves covering seeds in a non-toxic coating that contains the bacterium. As a seed sprouts and the plant grows, the bacterium enters through its roots, and ultimately ends up in every cell of the plant. This means that every one of those cells is capable of fixing nitrogen from the atmosphere – just like sugarcane does.<br /><br />N-Fix has been undergoing lab and field tests for the past 10 years, and has now been licensed to Azotic Technologies for further development and commercial production. According to the company, the bacteria should replace about 60 percent of plant nitrogen needs. It is hoped that the technology will be available for worldwide use within two to three years."Ianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01739671401151990700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-30352949629599844652013-07-26T22:53:05.231-07:002013-07-26T22:53:05.231-07:00Apologies for being obscure when exchanging lingui...Apologies for being obscure when exchanging linguistic pleasantries with Ian who started the ball rolling with the inconspicuously colorful term "drek maul".<br /><br />Depending on the Germanic dialect used, the word "drek" (also 'dreck") can refer to rubbish, frippery, drollery, trash, waste or excrement, and the word "maul" can designate "mouth, gob, moan, assault, strike, smear or paint" in the Germanic and "incorrect, perverse, ill, earthy, hammer, phallus, male member or bad" in the Latinate, a tribute to my testosterone-fueled verbal artistry I'm sure. <br /><br />Returning the compliment, I referred to Ian as a paragon of cleanliness, polish & finery, the original Germanic meaning of the term "putz" btw, often associated with the professional term "putzfrau" which is used to designate a dedicated "polisher, cleaner, cleric, clerk, servant or bootlick" (to God as it were), whereas the term "frau" is merely the receptive non-masculine diminutive form of the word 'spouse'.<br /><br /><br /><br />Best.locumranchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-56655007053577361422013-07-26T22:22:24.485-07:002013-07-26T22:22:24.485-07:00Frau implies marriage I think.Frau implies marriage I think.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-54268754767549782192013-07-26T20:03:05.981-07:002013-07-26T20:03:05.981-07:00"Putz Frau"???
My knowledge of German i..."Putz Frau"???<br /><br />My knowledge of German is from WWII movies, but "Frau" isn't "maiden" is it?LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-88174166134249113572013-07-26T18:05:07.699-07:002013-07-26T18:05:07.699-07:00Gordon R Dickson would approve of the gist of Davi...Gordon R Dickson would approve of the gist of David's article: Adapt-or-Die to current circumstance.<br /><br />I try to accept & love the world the way is, despite all its drecky unclean vagueness, because God appears to love a mess, and I do my best to embrace & adapt myself to this imperfect world with my less-than-perfect knowledge. <br /><br />Others of a more numerically retentive sort may take a different tack, demanding clean & perfect knowledge, so much so that they appoint themselves God's handmaidens ("Putz Frau" I believe the term is, ... or is it Frau Putz?), and they dedicate themselves to setting God's plan to right with definitive anality.<br /><br />Putz Frau or Frau Putz, you know to which retentive I refer, and it is a label that remains a truth even when I am only half-right. Especially so.<br /><br /><br />Best.locumranchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-69954557515534563072013-07-26T14:36:03.532-07:002013-07-26T14:36:03.532-07:00Sorry. Been offline.
See my latest syndicated ar...Sorry. Been offline.<br /><br />See my latest syndicated article (you've heard it all before) in the NY Times <br /><br />http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/25/opinion/global/if-you-cant-hide-from-big-brother-adapt.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1&<br /><br />and Christian science monitor (longer version) <br /><br />http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Global-Viewpoint/2013/0726/Snooping-vs.-privacy-lessons-for-an-age-of-transparency/%28page%29/3David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-38539940265111920002013-07-26T13:49:32.000-07:002013-07-26T13:49:32.000-07:00"They who can give up essential liberty to ob..."They who can give up <b>essential</b> liberty to obtain a little <b>temporary</b> safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety"Franklinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-15461550385042868122013-07-26T13:36:57.693-07:002013-07-26T13:36:57.693-07:00Hmm - so now "the author" is removing th...Hmm - so now "the author" is removing things not on the basis of content (which was polite and on topic) but on the basis of...what?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com