Comments on Contrary Brin: Seizing the Symbolic High Ground - in a number of ...

If it is possible to "break" Obama, then if Clinto...

2008-03-27T18:41:00.000-07:00

If it is possible to "break" Obama, then if Clinton supporters won't, McCain supporters will once he does win the nomination. Obama hasn't faced the Republican hate machine yet; if they could get people to believe that a war hero was a dirty coward, who knows what they could do to Obama?

I share some of Sillyperson's outrage/depression o...

2008-03-26T16:15:00.000-07:00

I share some of Sillyperson's outrage/depression over the fact that BushCo has managed to remain in power despite clear grounds (and I think public support given a bit of leadership/prodding) for impeachment.
It is clear that the majority has been cowed by an Authoritarian minority and the people who have exploited it well.

However, I don't see all doom and gloom. Enough people see what is going on that there is still non-radical room for correction. Revolution and/or succession are not in the immediate cards, though they are distant possibilities given the current direction. This is good reason to change direction I would think.

I really don't get the 'working class white voters will not vote for an African-American' thing. Some won't, but many will, as demonstrated by not only this primary but the election of other African-Americans to political office over recent (and in a few cases even not so recent) history. This is pessimism taken to an extreme illogical conclusion. There is a lot of variance amoung 'white working class voters'.

Your statement is both blatantly racist and classist, just in case you didn't notice.

Considering that a Democratic Congress was elected...

2008-03-26T06:26:00.000-07:00

Considering that a Democratic Congress was elected in 2006 to stop a war 70% of the American Public doesn't want, and that all that was standing between them and the end of the war was a President who should have been impeached for braking the law, lying the Country into a war we cannot win and using the Constitution to wipe his ass and who has at best a 30% approval rating, there really isn't much room for optimism.

Oh, I think we hopeless optimists do understand. I...

2008-03-25T22:13:00.000-07:00

Oh, I think we hopeless optimists do understand.

Indeed, if it doesn't strike a little too close to home, a silly person might ponder the Politics of Optimism.

"Is it time to come up with a backup plan?Al Gore,...

2008-03-25T19:22:00.000-07:00

"Is it time to come up with a backup plan?

Al Gore, anybody?"

As far as I'm concerned, the only backup plan we have is whoever the Democratic candidate picks for Vice President. And barring some unforeseen career-killing revelation, that candidate is going to be Obama.

Wake up for a minute and consider what you just said. Are you seriously suggesting that after an historic primary where record numbers of democrats and independents voted, that we throw all those votes away and nominate someone who didn't even campaign (and happens to be white and male)?

Where's the democracy in that?

Look, I know 2000 stung, but you don't make up for a stolen election by overturning all those primary votes and making Obama and Clinton supporters angry.

Besides, being president would really cut into the time Gore has for saving the world. :)

If our culture war continues, you can be sure Blue...

2008-03-25T18:17:00.000-07:00

If our culture war continues, you can be sure Blue America will start looking to its own self interest, finding ways to demand equal economic benefits and exercising regionalism in purchasing.

And there begins the route that leads to secession...

Ten years ago, if a secession proposision had been put on the ballot, I would have voted against it, today I would vote for it.

I’ll not reply any further to a fellow who seems to think that major ructions and civil wars are fun.
Not fun, just inevitable... In the last twenty years we have the creation of at least ten new countries, some peacefully, some not. Quebec is still likely to split from Canada despite what you think (CBC- Harper defends Kosovo recognition as unique case, Belgium is in the process of breaking up, and this is not to mention the two new countries that we are in the process of creating in the ME.

Not having any lefty ideology to fall back on people seem to be falling back on ethnicity (Hezbollah is the model, the organization that replaces the failing state), welcome to Jihad vs McWorld.

We seem to be in a period of state disintegration.

Go live inside sci fi novels and movies, pampered, spoiled brat.
As long as they are not wishful fantasy written by hopeless optimists who don't understand why their vision of the world is falling apart around them.

travc,

That really is the burning question for this primary IMO. What exactly is the Clinton campaign 'theory of victory'?

That white working class voters will NOT VOTE FOR AN AFRICAN-AMERICAN, therefor the only way for the democrats to win is to nominate her.

Gore / HypnoToad ticket for '08!More seriously, I ...

2008-03-25T16:34:00.000-07:00

Gore / HypnoToad ticket for '08!

More seriously, I think a lot of Obama supporters and a few in the media have realized that Clinton is either hoping for a very very low probability outcome, or playing an entirely different (and somewhat scary) game.

I've been trying to figure out what her more plugged in followers are thinking by reading too many blogs (and avoiding work), but the vast majority makes very little sense to me. The troops have apparently drunk deeply of the koolaid, and don't seem capable of asking 'what is the end game' at this point.

That really is the burning question for this primary IMO. What exactly is the Clinton campaign 'theory of victory'?

William Fallon?As for notions of Clinton deciding ...

2008-03-25T15:45:00.000-07:00

William Fallon?

As for notions of Clinton deciding to go Republican rather than endorse Obama, based on local history (check out Cheryl Kernot), I think it would be political suicide.

Is it time to come up with a backup plan?Al Gore, ...

2008-03-25T15:12:00.000-07:00

Is it time to come up with a backup plan?

Al Gore, anybody?

And on another disturbing note, Senator Clinton's ...

2008-03-25T14:00:00.000-07:00

And on another disturbing note, Senator Clinton's recent campaign has been summed up as the Tonya Harding option of breaking Obama, making him unelectable, and thus getting the nomination by default. If this is indeed the case (and I'm not sure if I trust anonymous sources), then we have to ask ourselves: how do we protect Obama from the slings and arrows of a foe determined to remove him at any cost politically?

If this is indeed Clinton's goal, and if this isn't just much ado about nothing by someone in the media... then my suspicion that the Democratic leadership is going to step to the forefront and insist Clinton step down may in fact become reality.

------

On a side note, the Tuzla, Bosnia story is coming home to roost with sleep-deprived Clinton having said on multiple occasions she was under sniper fire... only for evidence to prove otherwise.

You have to wonder if this is going to hurt her politically, or if she'll manage to brush it under the rug with all her other gaffes. And that is something you have to admire about the Clintons. The only time anything stuck was... well, rather than put it crassly, I'll just say "Monica-Gate" and even that was just pettiness.

Though I think this serial lying about her experience in Bosnia may be a bit harder to get around than a wee bit of adultery in the White House.

Rob H.

Obama's rural support won him Nevada. And Iowa. Hi...

2008-03-25T12:58:00.000-07:00

Obama's rural support won him Nevada. And Iowa. Hillary's mistake was to only campaign in the cities.

Wherever Obama goes, he is always committed to talking to everyone.

Some people will vote for whomever shows up to listen to 'em. (Appalachia for Jesse Jackson?).

Race is a factor in Clinton voters primarily among...

2008-03-25T12:36:00.000-07:00

Race is a factor in Clinton voters primarily among the uneducated. It seems that a number of less-educated white supporters of Clinton are influenced in voting for her because she is white and Obama isn't, according to surveys. I have to wonder at the percentage of Clinton supporters who have stated outright they will not vote for Obama... and wonder how many of those are that ardent about Clinton... and how many are just that ardent because Obama isn't wholly white.

Clinton seems to be building a lot of rural support, while Obama has a lot of support in the cities. I think Obama has to shift his view a little and start hitting those smaller regions as well... to undercut Clinton's support and to help keep this rural group from undercutting him as seems to have happened in Texas and in Ohio.

Rob H.

David, I don't remember mentioning Canada... it's ...

2008-03-25T11:32:00.000-07:00

David, I don't remember mentioning Canada... it's an interesting point, but not mine.

I spent the ages of 21 to 41 in the U.S. military. I can tell you from experience that 'coming out of a dead sleep and thinking clearly' was easiest around 30: I had learned how to do it, and age had not yet diminished my capabilities. Staying awake and operating under low sleep was easist in the mid 20's.

IRT Senator Clinton and some of her supporters, there is a definite air of "It's her turn, she *deserves* the Presidency" about her. This is the same air I noted in 1993, when certain Republicans I was serving with seemed to believe that Bush (sr) deserved the Presidency in spite of losing the election. This was when I first noticed 'the culture war'. Our esteemed host is correct in this: Senator Clinton can will battles of the Culture War, but Senator Obama can end it.

Okay. Now this is worrisome. A significant number ...

2008-03-25T11:28:00.000-07:00

Okay. Now this is worrisome. A significant number of Clinton and Obama supporters claim they will vote for McCain over the candidate not of their choice. The larger percentage of this (though how much this is in terms of pure numbers is not mentioned) are Clinton supporters.

This has gone on long enough. My gods... you're talking about a group of people who are willing to stab their own party in the back (in the case of Clinton supporters, long-term supporters at that) out of pettiness and spite.

If Clinton refuses to fully endorse Obama when he wins... then I suspect we'll see two things happen. First, the Democrats will push to get her out of office. Second, she will shift party allegiance to the Republicans.

You have to wonder if McCain might be thinking of a deal with the Devil right now. If Clinton loses the primary, offer her the VP slot. A McCain/Clinton ticket would ensure that no one on the Neocon side tries to kill him, while it would rip apart the Democratic party. Clinton could bide her time waiting for McCain to either die of old age/complications or in eight years run as the Presidential candidate for the Republicans, having bought her position by ripping the heart out of the Democratic party.

Worse case scenario, you know.

I don't think we have the time anymore to wait for Pennsylvania. I think things need to end now. If Pelusi and other female Superdelegates take the lead and start a mass exodus to Obama... and then the male Superdelegates follow... then there wouldn't be cries of sexism involved, except by the most die-hard. And if it is done now, then we'll have months for frayed nerves and feelings of betrayal to mend. If this goes to the very end, then the Democratic party will be fractured, divisive, and unable to join behind the winning candidate... and McCain will win by default.

Rob H.

I'm a bit late to this conversations but "someone ...

2008-03-25T11:12:00.000-07:00

I'm a bit late to this conversations but "someone on the internet is wrong" so I need to correct. First, though, I agree Wright is bonkers of for the HIV/AIDs conspiracy stuff. But then David says this:

As for Wright’s incendiary speech, it is simply and stark jibbering insane. At too many levels to even address.

First, he buys into the crappy and slanderous notion that a just God would actually punish an entire nation for a military/strategic decision that MAY have been excessive or criminal or immoral at the time (Hiroshima), but would then delay that punishment for decades and then deliver it in a totally ambiguous manner, two generations later, in such a way that only the prophet (Wright) is able to perceive cause and effect. Oh, and 9/11 was a slap on the wrist, compared to the atom bomb. But never mind.

This is completely false; Wright never made any such claim. If you watch the whole sermon you'll see that "the rosters coming home to roost" had nothing to do with God. Wright was talking about the difference between military targets and civilian targets and how targeting civilians promotes the circle of violence.

The whole point of the sermon, really, was to say we should not attack civilians in response. Quite sane.

I honestly can't see how top dems can put pressure...

2008-03-25T10:57:00.001-07:00

I honestly can't see how top dems can put pressure Hillary very soon. Oh, some like Richardson will try to build momentum in BHO's favor. But remember, HRC is also a member of aprivkly and sensitive caste, whose members will get pissed if they see a buncha males ganging up on her.

Also, doing this pre Pennsylvania will sound like trying to muffle the people.

They'll act in concert if Obama does better than expected in PA.

Should we not, then, elect younger Presidents then...

2008-03-25T10:57:00.000-07:00

Should we not, then, elect younger Presidents then? I know when I was younger I could withstand the effects of sleep deprivation far better than I can now... and I'm not even pushing 40 yet. Approaching it carefully with a stick in hand, but not pushing it. ^^;;

"Elect me as President! I work well without sleep! Just look at my grades in grad school..."

Speaking as a scientist whose colleagues have note...

2008-03-25T10:53:00.000-07:00

Speaking as a scientist whose colleagues have noted much individual variation in effects caused by sleep deprivation, I am quite interested in what effects sleep deprivation might have on our next president.

This is one of those fitness for command issues. There will come a time when a president is not at his/her best.

Incidentally, there's not much correlation between perceived and measured effects of sleep deprivation.

And here's a rather disquieting little commentary ...

2008-03-25T10:46:00.000-07:00

And here's a rather disquieting little commentary suggesting the real reason for Clinton's continued run for the Presidency is to keep control of the Democratic Party. I'm not sure how the heck they get Pat Buchanan in there, but hey, every good conspiracy rant needs to have something off-key, true?

Rob H.

It is fascinating at times to examine the possibil...

2008-03-25T10:28:00.000-07:00

It is fascinating at times to examine the possibilities of this type of conflict. However, the problem with that type of cerebral exercise is that it fails to consider two things. First, it fails to consider the pure chaos that such a situation would cause... which would result in situations that cannot be thought of ahead of time and thus make the mental exercise one of futility. Second, it ignores the very real loss of life, personal anguish, fear, horror, and so forth.

The South seceding from the Union sounded grand and glorious. The South would live as it should live. But they had to strike at the North to ensure their freedom, which ensured the North would invade, which resulted in massive casualties and a death count that has not been matched by every single conflict the U.S. has been in, combined. And that counts the Revolutionary War.

------

Back on the political front again, Obama is trying to force the Transparency issue on Clinton by releasing all of his tax information online and urging Clinton to do the same. You have to wonder what the Clintons want to hide that they are refusing to release that information... and why the media is not making a bigger deal of this.

Clinton continues to try and make Reverend Wright an issue by claiming she'd not have had him as her pastor. She also went on to hint at Governor Ed Rendell as a running mate, apparently dropping the idea of a Clinton/Obama ticket. And she also claims she was sleep-deprived and that was why she "misspoke" about being threatened by snipers in Bosnia when in fact she was not.

So, Dr. Brin. Given that some political analysts give Clinton a 5% shot of gaining the Democratic nomination and that to maintain that 5% she has to slash-and-burn her way to the top... do you see the Democratic Leadership stepping in anytime soon and telling Clinton "it's over, we're backing Obama. You can bow out gracefully, or we'll go public and disown you" or something to that effect?

Rob H.

Hawker, thanks for bringing up Canada. Canda mana...

2008-03-25T10:10:00.000-07:00

Hawker, thanks for bringing up Canada. Canda managed to end its own Culture War, in which the Francophones of Quebec kept threatening to seek independence, by the simple measure of cheerfully calling their bluff. An independent Quebec would be economically worse off, isolated... but even more important, it would suddenly face its own secession movement, on the part of the vast Indian reservations to the north. Things calmed down pretty darn quick as more levelheaded Quebequois intervened.

Perhaps the same thing would happen in the US south. If our culture war continues, you can be sure Blue America will start looking to its own self interest, finding ways to demand equal economic benefits and exercising regionalism in purchasing.

Anonymous has prove to be a sillyperson. I’ll not reply any further to a fellow who seems to think that major ructions and civil wars are fun. Go live inside sci fi novels and movies, pampered, spoiled brat.

I saw an article in the Washington Post that linke...

2008-03-25T09:35:00.000-07:00

I saw an article in the Washington Post that linked to a Harvard study that showed that there is in fact an increase in insurgent activity following increases in statements critical of the war.

Note that this was never intended to say that we should stifle such statements. Free Speech is just too valuable. Besides, correlation is not equal to causation and so on.

Even so, I thought it was interesting.

Is There an "Emboldenment" Effect? Evidence from the Insurgency in Iraq
http://www.nber.org/papers/w13839.pdf

by Radha Iyengar and Jonathan Monten, National Bureau of Economic Research

Abstract
Are insurgents affected by information on US casualty sensitivity? Using data on attacks and variation in access to international news across Iraqi provinces, we identify an "emboldenment" effect by comparing the rate of insurgent attacks in areas with higher and lower access to information about U.S news after public statements critical of the war. We find in periods after a spike in war-critical statements, insurgent
attacks increases by 5-10 percent. The results suggest that insurgent groups respond rationally to expected probability of US withdrawal. As such counterinsurgency should consider deterrence and incapacitation
rather than simply search and destroy missions.

Two disturbing notes. First, the number of U.S. Ai...

2008-03-25T09:04:00.000-07:00

Two disturbing notes. First, the number of U.S. Air Marshalls has declined significantly, so that only a tiny fraction of flights are in fact protected. Second, though I cannot find the article in question, there was a mayor who was parroting Bill Clinton about how only Senator Clinton had the national security experience... hinting at a possible terrorist action in the future according to intelligence reports.

It seems that Clinton has read your blog, Dr. Brin. Either that... or the Shrub is planning something, and the Clintons have gotten wind of it. The combination of a lack of security on airliners and the Clintons going to ground... strongly suggests we'll have another hijacking in the next couple of months. We can only hope that the people on that flight stand up against the terrorists and drive them off.

Rob H.

Except they'd go to war with their "brethren" to "...

2008-03-25T07:33:00.000-07:00

Except they'd go to war with their "brethren" to "bring them into the light."

There's actually a scifi webcomic that is telling a story like that, SSDD (though for some unknown reason the artist draws people as anthropomorphic animals). In it, an anarchist nation has sprung up (supported by a rogue AI) and consists of parts of Europe, Great Britain, and the northern part of North America... and Texas went and started taking by force the southern states. Needless to say, the cartoonist (who's British) has a poor opinion of the U.S. government under the Shrub. ;)

Back on the political trail, Clinton Campaign Adviser James Carville is refusing to apologize for comparing New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson to Judas. This isn't causing as big an uproar as Obama supporter Gordon Fisher who said Clinton's remarks were "a stain on his legacy much worse, much deeper, than the one on Monica 's blue dress" and Retired General Merrill "Tony" McPeak who said President Clinton's attacks on Senator Obama's patriotism was akin to McCarthyism.

A possible nasty stumble for Senator Clinton is her backpeddling from her claims she landed in Bosnia under sniper fire when video footage shows no such incident. She claims she "misspoke" and is trying to dismiss the whole affair.

Finally, it appears the Obama Campaign is predicting a hard fight for the remaining states. The brouhaha with Reverend Wright has damaged his standing (for now) with Democrats in a number of states, including North Carolina, and Clinton is leaping at the chance to prove Obama is unelectable by winning as many states as possible.

I very much hope the Democratic Party Leaders get together and stop this nonsense now. It's a waste of money and risks damaging Obama and ruining Clinton's goodwill with the voting public as a result.

Robert A. Howard

As a purely intellectual exercise, I also look for...

2008-03-25T06:22:00.000-07:00

As a purely intellectual exercise, I also look forward to the creation of a country based on the principles expounded by the Confederate Branch of the Republican Party. If they run thier country the way they run thier states, they'd starve. They need the "Blue States" to subsidize them, and without that subsidy...