tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post6847815380724069907..comments2024-03-18T21:52:45.757-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Hidden factors in the rush to immigration reformDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-9304194812497983142013-02-03T13:32:19.840-08:002013-02-03T13:32:19.840-08:00anon is silly. The US fertility rate may be SLIGH...anon is silly. The US fertility rate may be SLIGHTLY below replacement but immigration more than compensates. The real demographic collapse is Russia, followed by Europe, Japan and other disjunctions...<br /><br />And we need this period of "collapse" in order to survive. Planet. Species. Got PLENTY of cushion.<br /><br />now onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-65379624460090988862013-02-03T13:29:52.789-08:002013-02-03T13:29:52.789-08:00onward
onward<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-5163125712361185282013-02-03T13:12:27.409-08:002013-02-03T13:12:27.409-08:00With everyone's fertility rates collapsing, wh...With everyone's fertility rates collapsing, where are we going to get our immigrants from?<br /><br />ALL of our problems are basically demographic in nature. It ain’t Obama. It ain’t the Tea Party, it ain’t politics, liberals, conservatives, deficits, policy or economics.<br /> <br />Its demographics.<br /> <br />http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323375204578270053387770718.html?mod=googlenews_wsj<br /> <br />Forget the debt ceiling. Forget the fiscal cliff, the sequestration cliff and the entitlement cliff. Those are all just symptoms. What America really faces is a demographic cliff: The root cause of most of our problems is our declining fertility rate. The fertility rate is the number of children an average woman bears over the course of her life. The replacement rate is 2.1. If the average woman has more children than that, population grows. Fewer, and it contracts. Today, America's total fertility rate is 1.93, according to the latest figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; it hasn't been above the replacement rate in a sustained way since the early 1970s.<br /><br />The nation's falling fertility rate underlies many of our most difficult problems. Once a country's fertility rate falls consistently below replacement, its age profile begins to shift. You get more old people than young people. And eventually, as the bloated cohort of old people dies off, population begins to contract. This dual problem—a population that is disproportionately old and shrinking overall—has enormous economic, political and cultural consequences....<br /><br />There has been a great deal of political talk in recent years about whether America, once regarded as the shining city on a hill, is in decline. But decline isn't about whether Democrats or Republicans hold power; it isn't about political ideology at all. At its most basic, it's about the sustainability of human capital. Whether Barack Obamaor Mitt Romney took the oath of office last month, we would still be declining in the most important sense—demographically. It is what drives everything else. If our fertility rate were higher—say 2.5, or even 2.2—many of our problems would be a lot more manageable. But our fertility rate isn't going up any time soon. In fact, it's probably heading lower. Much lower.<br /><br />And its not just America, it’s the rest of the world. By 2050 we will have 20 million fewer Japanese and 50 million fewer Russians. Even the birthrates of Hispanic and Muslims are falling (France now has a higher fertility rate than Algeria or Iran). Everyone’s dependency ratios will skyrocket.<br /> <br />Our real debt problem isn’t current operating deficits. It’s the long term tsunami of entitlements as the Boomers retire.<br /> <br />The only issue that matters is the demographic cliff. It is the root cause of everything. Everything else – every economic downturn and every political fight – are merely symptoms.<br /> <br />And there is not a thing Obama or any other president can do about it.<br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-24886712724123770762013-02-03T11:39:34.217-08:002013-02-03T11:39:34.217-08:00It also means slowly towing a fishhook.It also means slowly towing a fishhook.Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-70875629351459857512013-02-03T09:31:43.151-08:002013-02-03T09:31:43.151-08:00Trollery is an interesting concept in & of its...Trollery is an interesting concept in & of itself. <br /><br />It's Modern English form appears in the 1620s, coming to us from the French drôle "odd, comical, funny" (1580s), from the Middle French noun meaning "a merry fellow," possibly from Middle Dutch drol "fat little fellow, goblin," or Middle High German trolle "clown," ultimately from Old Norse troll "giant, troll" (see troll (n.).<br /><br />Thus, without any sense of false modesty or shame, I can hold my head up high & declare:<br /><br />I am a TROLL AMERICAN.<br /><br />Best.locumranchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-21976448643753014962013-02-03T06:49:14.935-08:002013-02-03T06:49:14.935-08:00Speaking as one with an inner troll (I'm a cri...Speaking as one with an inner troll (I'm a critic, the troll comes with the territory), there is one threat as shown here: the tendency to troll with kittens. =^-^=<br /><br />Which can derail otherwise serious threads, mind you.<br /><br />Rob H.Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-84280716348467690922013-02-03T04:40:07.656-08:002013-02-03T04:40:07.656-08:00It begins with the kitten mallet, as foretold by ...It begins with the kitten mallet, <a href="http://www.sluggy.com/comics/archives/daily/021205" rel="nofollow"> as foretold by Sluggy</a><br /><br />Fa la la is the only known sparkly to rainbows.Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-67928341481069073482013-02-03T02:43:32.635-08:002013-02-03T02:43:32.635-08:00Stop! Stop! Don't you see that the kitten mall...Stop! Stop! Don't you see that the kitten mallet setting unleashes a pernicious viral meme that will gradually lock us all into a universe of sparkly showers?<br /><br />Think Kzinti kittens, if you must.<br /><br />Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-8651822459278446512013-02-02T20:16:19.146-08:002013-02-02T20:16:19.146-08:00OOOooo, sparkly! There are variations on that mall...OOOooo, sparkly! There are variations on that mallet setting that should work for people who quote the troll before the admin arrives too. I like it.<br /><br /><br /><br />Adam Smith & David Ricardo.<br /><br />Increase the population size and market size and we can arrange to be better off by mostly getting out of their way.<br /><br />Nuf Said?Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-44673837367478317892013-02-02T18:00:55.513-08:002013-02-02T18:00:55.513-08:00What Ian Meant to say to locumranch was: " I...What Ian Meant to say to locumranch was: " I love hearts and flowers and pretty bows! I could dance in sparkly showers all the day long! Fa la la la la la!"<br /><br />;-)David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-18231843007406767032013-02-02T17:58:52.082-08:002013-02-02T17:58:52.082-08:00I see now that Locumranch, my opposition to his en...I see now that Locumranch, my opposition to his entirely reasonable proposal that people he disapproves of should be stripped of their right to vote marks me out as a freedom-hating would-be tyrant.<br /><br />After all, it's not like there's a long and sorry history of such measures being used to disempower the poor and ethnic and religious minorities.Ianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01739671401151990700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-60893799730688244272013-02-02T17:07:11.507-08:002013-02-02T17:07:11.507-08:00Sorry guys. I had to kitten-mallet locumranch... ...Sorry guys. I had to kitten-mallet locumranch... what he REALLY said was... um... I love hearts and flowers and pretty bows! I could dance in sparkly showers all the day long! Fa la la la la la!<br /><br />damn!David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-31760959829095494072013-02-02T16:04:47.057-08:002013-02-02T16:04:47.057-08:00Ian's right:
When the revolution comes, I...Ian's right: <br /><br />When the revolution comes, I'll be first up against the wall with the other comedians, doctors, thinkers, engineers, writers, artists & iconoclasts. <br /><br />And, furthermore, I love hearts and flowers and pretty bows! I could dance in sparkly showers all the day long! Fa la la la la la!<br /><br />Best.locumranchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-40819566844067697312013-02-02T15:49:55.341-08:002013-02-02T15:49:55.341-08:00I do not understand what "notifications"...I do not understand what "notifications" are for (the little orange box in the upper right) on Google Plus.<br /><br />Also... do people send each other MESSAGES via Google+ (cause I can't find a place) or do those come to me as Gmails?David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-11401943607219738192013-02-02T15:47:56.910-08:002013-02-02T15:47:56.910-08:00Jumper thanks. cute idea.Jumper thanks. cute idea.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-88740698312506050432013-02-02T14:32:55.812-08:002013-02-02T14:32:55.812-08:00"That's why we need to apply merit standa..."That's why we need to apply merit standards to our own citizens as well, or the US is doomed to follow the Roman Empire model of doom & fiscal decay."<br /><br />Given your lack of comprehension of Roman history, I suspect you'd find yourself lumped the the Ne'er-Do- Wells.Ianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01739671401151990700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-69953100460394622182013-02-02T14:01:36.615-08:002013-02-02T14:01:36.615-08:00David, you gotta see this.
http://whatever.scalzi....David, you <i>gotta</i> see this.<br />http://whatever.scalzi.com/2013/01/21/the-kitten-setting/<br /><br />Even if you mostly never need it.Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-83537919718004222462013-02-02T12:22:57.326-08:002013-02-02T12:22:57.326-08:00The more I think about it, the more obvious it bec...The more I think about it, the more obvious it becomes that the two immigration options offered by the Republicans & Democrats represent a false dichotomy. After all, as both parties acknowledge (tacitly or otherwise) that immigration is a good thing for the US economy, we can conclude that this a non-issue.<br /><br />What we are left with is a republican system problem -- the perpetuation of a hierarchical republic with a heredity oligarchy on top & producers on bottom -- wherein an oligarchy (representing less than 5% of the population) owns or controls over 80% of capital resources while the producing class (representing almost 90% of population) fights over the distribution of the other 10 to 15% of capital.<br /><br />Of course, we need not resort to Bolshevik, Mao or Khmer Rouge-type tactics to achieve economic and/or social parity. We could start with a true Flat Tax, deleting the Capital Gain Tax Rate so the Mitt Romney type oligarchs would be forced to pay the same tax rate as school teachers, then we could increase the Inheritance Tax upwards from 75% to eliminate the hereditary basis for oligarchy, thereby leveling the playing field in few short generations.<br /><br /><br />Bestlocumranchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-13793435586656789412013-02-02T09:11:43.828-08:002013-02-02T09:11:43.828-08:00Paul451,
Don't make me your straw man. I neve...Paul451,<br /><br />Don't make me your straw man. I never said that it was the "great unwashed" that vote themselves unlimited largess. I only said it was the US "ne'er-do-wells" who do so.<br /><br />As you say, it is the upper crust inheritors -- our financial legacies -- that produce little or nothing besides 'investment'. They also frame public policy and label this problem 'immigration'.<br /><br />That's why we need to apply merit standards to our own citizens as well, or the US is doomed to follow the Roman Empire model of doom & fiscal decay.<br /><br />Best.locumranchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-39736911917021660292013-02-02T08:05:44.844-08:002013-02-02T08:05:44.844-08:00Why the U.S. Government Never, Ever Has to Pay Bac...Why the U.S. Government Never, Ever Has to Pay Back All Its Debt<br />http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/02/why-the-us-government-never-ever-has-to-pay-back-all-its-debt/272747/Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-23529739752632204062013-02-02T05:43:55.651-08:002013-02-02T05:43:55.651-08:00As the case actually is, most of the problem in th...As the case actually is, most of the problem in the U.S. is from Mexico and I have found some sharp and smart people of great character and a pleasure to work with and meet. We could do much worse. (I don't live in CA...)<br /><br />I just don't like the dishonesty from policy makers who won't deal with the facts that there are likely a billion people who would come here now and there are reasons beyond the speed of acclimation to have to say "no, sorry." Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-41312689713891365182013-02-02T04:11:42.684-08:002013-02-02T04:11:42.684-08:00False dichotomy. The great unwashed don't vote...False dichotomy. The great unwashed <i>don't</i> vote themselves unlimited largess. Why else would "tighten our belts", "control entitlements" type arguments be such good campaign slogans?<br /><br />It's the upper crust that raids the kitty.Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-35745042098883172322013-02-01T23:13:27.557-08:002013-02-01T23:13:27.557-08:00A merit-based immigration policy is a great idea, ...A merit-based immigration policy is a great idea, but why not extend merit to citizenship & social services?<br /><br />We'll call it the "Service guarantees Citizenship" bill. First, we make sure that every immigrant becomes a productive member of society. Second, we apply the same standards to our own citizens. And, third, we strip our own ne'er-do-wells of their citizenship so they cannot vote themselves unlimited social services, forcing them to rely on our humanity for total support. [See 'A Modest Proposal'] <br /><br />Or, we can stick to the tried & true. We try to establish an immigrant quota but end up accepting all comers. We let the cream rise to the top in a modified free market environment, so the citizen 'we' can benefit from their productivity. Then, we use this productivity to provide unlimited social support to an ever increasing number of our own ne'er-do-wells according to their votes & wishes until the entire system collapses under its own inertia, dooming us all. [see 'The Postman']<br /><br />Which option is the most moral?<br /><br />Best.<br /><br />locumranchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-14709160078832399032013-02-01T15:21:42.994-08:002013-02-01T15:21:42.994-08:00All true, Robert. Population increase brings econo...All true, Robert. Population increase brings economic activity. It is just that that is not all it brings. There is so much exploitation connected. And some problems not even dealt with, such as tax evasion, crime syndicates, war crimes refugees flying in under radar, cross-border gang activity, etc. Not to mention natural habitat destruction, accelerated resource consumption, pollution, etc. But the pool to pay my Social Security increases without taxing the plutocrats, so there's that plum for me.Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-30230877803940620982013-02-01T13:22:57.426-08:002013-02-01T13:22:57.426-08:00Multiple studies in multiple nations have shown th...Multiple studies in multiple nations have shown that immigration actually drives increased job growth and economic growth. Immigrants open new businesses and stimulate economic development in rich nations. Further, efforts in Georgia to drive off immigrant labor resulted in food rotting on the vine because despite high unemployment numbers, no one wanted to stoop to picking vegetables. It was beneath them, despite not having jobs or prospects and running out of unemployment in some cases.<br /><br />That's right. People didn't want to pick veggies and fruit despite whining about immigrant labor stealing their jobs. They had the opportunity and said "eff you, we want real jobs."<br /><br />Rob H.Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.com