tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post6775012177877239371..comments2024-03-28T10:56:52.861-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Nitpicking recent (great) hard SF novels: AURORA and THE MARTIAN.David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger93125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-82329719911538932362018-10-30T01:46:55.211-07:002018-10-30T01:46:55.211-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.siskahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07076079736141144027noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-81744337492988166152015-09-21T11:48:12.394-07:002015-09-21T11:48:12.394-07:00Just read Aurora. This book is just so depressing...Just read Aurora. This book is just so depressing. Seriously with 25th century technology they couldn't make it in a just slightly hostile location? In Neal Stephenson recent novel "Seven" they recovered from 7 survivors that were all female and went on to re-terraform Earth.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-18068757913976554272015-09-16T19:29:05.272-07:002015-09-16T19:29:05.272-07:00onward
onwardonward<br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-72234138517557309462015-09-16T17:39:55.253-07:002015-09-16T17:39:55.253-07:00Duncan,
"what was paper used for before print...Duncan,<br /><i>"what was paper used for before printing? - if paper dropped massively in price there must have been a volume application before printing<br />What was it?"</i><br /><br />I actually have no idea. But paper mills with their large format paper presses definitely existed well before the printing press.<br /><br />(I don't want to diminish Gutenberg excessively. He put a number of inventions together at the same time, moveable type of course, the screw press, the moveable/rolling bed, oil-based inks, etc. Without him, it likely would have taken a century for all the pieces to come together. From our POV, history would be little changed, but from their POV it must have come out of nowhere. It was one of the few "in your lifetime" continent-wide revolutionary inventions before the modern era. Was there any previous invention that went from niche-to-ubiquity so fast, so widely?)Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-88360661628294991132015-09-16T15:08:46.950-07:002015-09-16T15:08:46.950-07:00Sounds as if the printing revolution required all ...Sounds as if the printing revolution required all three<br /><br />Cheap paper<br />Printing press<br />"indulgence forms"<br /><br />Paul<br />what was paper used for before printing? - if paper dropped massively in price there must have been a volume application before printing<br />What was it?duncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-17339868711999685782015-09-16T14:35:28.322-07:002015-09-16T14:35:28.322-07:00I was taught the killer app was the indulgence for...I was taught the killer app was the indulgence form. 8)Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-8411974236170335222015-09-16T14:22:39.307-07:002015-09-16T14:22:39.307-07:00Sociotard,
"Boilerplate" came later. 18t...Sociotard,<br />"Boilerplate" came later. 18th/19th century. Hence the name.Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-85198368940509140362015-09-16T13:58:57.657-07:002015-09-16T13:58:57.657-07:00I thought the boom came not from moveable type or ...I thought the boom came not from moveable type or cheap paper, but from the killer app: form documents. Nobody expected it to be pretty or enjoyable, or even to last a generation. It just had to contain information. Making it a form meant that more illiterate workers could process them. just know how to write the date and a name, easier than real reading. it was also faster than writing the whole stupid document each time.sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-65573788181797983442015-09-16T13:57:07.981-07:002015-09-16T13:57:07.981-07:00@Paul451: From what I learned about robotic space ...@Paul451: From what I learned about robotic space missions, part of the high cost is sufficient testing to ensure high reliability BECAUSE launch costs were so high. Low launch costs don't guarantee humans in space. What they do is guarantee more activity in space. Some of it will probably be human.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-59718827295127586712015-09-16T12:47:53.312-07:002015-09-16T12:47:53.312-07:00Aside: Apparently the scientific instruments on MS...Aside: Apparently the scientific instruments on MSL Curiosity only cost about 10% of the $2+ billion development budget. Most of the cost was the development and construction of the sky crane.<br /><br />Make it worthwhile to develop standardised "off the shelf" landers and rovers, to get the price of the lander/rover down to the same price as the instruments, and suddenly you can saturate your target with missions.Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-46047077809551807492015-09-16T12:45:00.668-07:002015-09-16T12:45:00.668-07:00Duncan,
Not "paper", cheap paper. That w...Duncan,<br />Not "paper", cheap paper. That was the game changer. The printing press was not a new idea, even moveable type had been invented before (the Googles says at least 300 years earlier in Europe). But without cheap paper, there was no advantage to using presses.<br /><br />The cost of a professional scribe was high, but that reflected the luxury status of books. You were spending so much on the material, it made sense to produce something of high quality. Calligraphy, illumination, etc, wasn't <i>necessary</i>; in theory, anyone with clear handwriting would suffice, but that disproportionately detracted from value the final product. Like mounting expensive jewels in a cheap setting, what's the point? And like cheap scribes, cheap-looking moveable type printing added nothing to the value of luxury books, therefore had no market. Meanwhile higher-quality etched-plate and carved-block printing were even more expensive than hand-scribing <i>for low volumes of expensive books</i>.<br /><br />It was only when the price of paper dropped by an order of magnitude, and paper became effectively disposable, that the advantage of cheap printing could be realised. But the idea was already there, waiting. Result, not cause.<br /><br />[Googling around, it is suggested that Gutenberg was actually inspired by seeing the paper-manufacturing presses of the new German paper mills. Cheap paper may have even more directly inspired his invention.]<br /><br />There's an analogy with the space program. When launch costs are so high, it makes sense to spend more money squeezing as much spacecraft per kilogram as you can. Instead of bulk metal framing, individually carved and etched isogrid panels. Slow but rad-hardened electronics, bespoke designed for the mission. Etc. That limits who can perform space missions. It also makes the hardware completely bespoke, hand-built, preventing any advantage of economies of scale.<br /><br />But if launch costs drop enough, suddenly you can become "wasteful" with mass. Use simple bulk metal structures, off-the-shelf electronics wrapped in dumb bulk shielding, etc. Buying someone else's design at a lower cost, even though it's not exactly customised to your mission. (Cheap, wasteful, mass-produced Red Dragon, vs MSL's expensive bespoke sky crane.) And launching experimental systems that haven't been rigorously tested in large expensive vacuum/vibration/heat chambers on Earth, because it's cheaper to test in space.<br /><br />That's why I'm hoping that if SpaceX cracks even partial reusability, the price will drop to the level where the default assumptions of space development shift. (Something you already see traces of in cubesats/nanosats.)<br /><br />For example, DARPA is playing with the idea of a robot-serviced GEO platform for refuelling and repairing satellites. Robot (teleoperated) systems are still hideously expensive, just much cheaper than using humans in space. However, if the price of launch gets low enough, then the cost of launching and supporting humans in space drops, while the cost of robotic systems remains high. Similarly, cheap launching of bulk radiation shielding, letting humans operate safely at GEO.<br /><br />Suddenly the cost-balance between a manned and a robotic station shifts towards humans. And it would be amusing to see Clarke-style manned GEO spacestations suddenly back on the table. A general platform in the most over-subscribed GEO slots, providing power, cooling, propulsion and on-site maintenance for multiple comms operators.Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-25505484178282541582015-09-16T12:16:10.997-07:002015-09-16T12:16:10.997-07:00David
Re: Alfred's demand for a 20yr update fo...David<br />Re: Alfred's demand for a 20yr update for <i>The Transparent Society</i>.<br /><br />Your publisher might like the idea of an anniversary re-print of the original with new short essays between chapters. (As is often done with short story anthologies.)Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-1151568810924138962015-09-16T12:06:34.085-07:002015-09-16T12:06:34.085-07:00Catfish,
"Colonizing planets -- or, as I pref...Catfish,<br /><i>"Colonizing planets -- or, as I prefer to frame it, providing the seed-shell for the Terran biosphere to reproduce herself -- is indeed likely to have a failure rate. [...] Not all seeds land on good soil and sprout. This does not invalidate sending out seeds."</i><br />Tim,<br /><i>"but it could be tough on the individuals comprising the seeds."</i><br /><br />It's r/K all over again.<br /><br />Personally I think we'll adopt a K-strategy for early colonies, simply because the first colonists will be too high profile to be expendable. Once the process becomes self-sustaining, self-funding, and anonymous, it'll be more of an r-strategy.Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-32868135431479607812015-09-16T10:45:34.764-07:002015-09-16T10:45:34.764-07:00@David: I finally made it to ch 5 of your Transpar...@David: I finally made it to ch 5 of your Transparency book. I wish I had read that far years ago. It's obvious you get it with your definition of accountability and a market of ideas. <br /><br />Much to the annoyance of your fiction readers, some of us are going to be clamoring for a 20 year update for transparency. I know. You'll have to assign that work to dit.Brin. 8)Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-37993057640565698382015-09-16T09:51:59.404-07:002015-09-16T09:51:59.404-07:00RE: Competence Porn
One of the most competent indi...RE: Competence Porn<br />One of the most competent individuals I have ever seen in fiction is a fellow by the name of Tom Orley. He’s the main reason I visit here.<br /><br />God, I hope he gets home someday!Smurphsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36779879037103692072015-09-16T07:37:07.525-07:002015-09-16T07:37:07.525-07:00Nice point, but it could be tough on the individua... Nice point, but it could be tough on the individuals comprising the seeds. Now, if the primary colonization target was to be off-planet, like the civilization that built the starship and planetary surfaces a secondary goal, it'd take a lot of drama out of the story, if I was in the story, it's how I'd want it.Tim H.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-56580626025357779032015-09-16T05:48:28.718-07:002015-09-16T05:48:28.718-07:00I have not read all of Aurora yet, but given the a...I have not read all of Aurora yet, but given the arc of KSR's prior outputs, I have to question why he decides on his polemic stance in the first place. The parental-environmentalist conceit that Earth is so vitally important that we must not only prioritize her, but <i>give up our dreams for the future</i> in favor of settling down as penitent caretakers.... to use another of your conceits, Dr. Brin, that smacks to me of the sort of paternalistic priest-King thinking that is diametrically opposed to the dynamic society this site seeks to promote. Worshipping at the altar of Ecological Stasis, seeking eternal forgiveness for the sins of being (1) an invasive species ourselves and (2) the hub of networks of many more such.<br /><br />I'm totally in favor of better ecological stewardship, but sorry. We were a disruptive species from the get-go 100,000 years ago. And disruptive species happen. They sometimes happen for the better, even. I'm sure the ferns were terribly upset by the first species to figure out lignin; but without that species we would not have the biome known as "forest". I'm sure the first amphibian insectivore to fully emerge from the water was disastrous to a glorious diversity of insects that thought they had dry land all to themselves, but all the mammals, birds, dinosaurs and reptiles owe their existence to it. <br /><br />We ourselves have created two new biomes which are being populated and have not yet achieved their first climax state; "farm" and "city". Like all newly created biomes -- or biomes being recolonized, as after volcanic eruption -- they look sparse for now. But nature adapts. With an intelligent species around, nature can even get a boost.<br /><br />Colonizing planets -- or, as I prefer to frame it, providing the seed-shell for the Terran biosphere to reproduce herself -- is indeed likely to have a failure rate. And like the 16th-17th century expeditions, a high death rate may ensue. But there's no way the conclusion should be drawn that "this means colonization is a bad idea". A much better idea was seen in the video game ALIEN LEGACY (Sierra, 1993), where you play the captain of the <i>second</i> colony ship into a new system. The native life killed everyone in the first colony attempt; your task is to use what they learned to succeed where they failed, analogous to the Roanoke and Jamestown colony attempts in the future USA. <br /><br />Not all seeds land on good soil and sprout. This does not invalidate sending out seeds.Catfish N. Codnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-45712572146695199622015-09-15T19:56:36.549-07:002015-09-15T19:56:36.549-07:00Hi Paul
Yes they did pay to scrape - but think abo...Hi Paul<br />Yes they did pay to scrape - but think about the costs<br />Vellum - worth re-using<br />Scribe, skilled labour, - 1 small book/month?<br /><br />I page scraped = 1 hour unskilled labour? (bet it was less)<br />Scrape enough for a small book - 1/2 week unskilled labour?<br />So about 1/10th of the time - and as unskilled v skilled 1/40th of the cost?<br />Even with new vellum the "Scribe" would be 90+% of the cost <br /><br />Vellum is a byproduct of the sheep industry - I suspect that it was not actually that expensive<br /><br />BUT as one famous SF writer has his character timeshifted back to post roman Italy find it would be very price inelastic<br />Not that expensive BUT if you want lots the price would go up without increasing the amount available <br /><br />Paper had been introduced to Europe some 400 years before Gutenberg - but until the printing press was invented there was not a huge market<br />You could only save 5% or 10% of the cost of a book by using paper over vellum and it was not nearly as long lasting - so why use paper?<br /><br />When the printing press cut the cost down and increased the required volume paper came into it's ownduncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-19711717156421998652015-09-15T19:32:55.930-07:002015-09-15T19:32:55.930-07:00Being a "deviant" is no big deal, really...Being a "deviant" is no big deal, really. To quote the first chorus of the Rush song "Vital Signs", "Everybody's got to deviate from the norm..."<br /><br />Alfred, I'm uncertain why "competence porn" is incompatible with the idea of building on what others have done. I haven't read <i>The Martian</i> yet, but from the trailers for the movie it doesn't look like our stranded astronaut invents any new technologies, he just has to figure out how to use the supplies he has to survive for far longer than he's supposed to. In kind, it's not that different from the Apollo 13 astronauts having to construct an air filter from available materials (although Our Hero doesn't have the assistance of Houston in his endeavor; on the other hand, his deadline is a little longer than theirs was too). What's the issue with a hero who uses his training and his intellect to survive, rather than muscle and a fast car?Jonathan S.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-40426758982597672482015-09-15T18:32:27.726-07:002015-09-15T18:32:27.726-07:00Duncan,
"But paper + scribes is not that much...Duncan,<br /><i>"But paper + scribes is not that much cheaper than vellum + scribes"</i><br /><br />I look at it this way: Paper was so expensive that you paid people to <i>scrape the ink off used pages</i> because it was cheaper than buying new paper/vellum/etc.<br /><br />Moveable type was a meaningless invention when the raw material cost more than the wages of someone to scrape each page by hand.<br /><br />Cheap paper changed the game. Moveable type was a side-effect of that, not a cause.Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-63920537549130611152015-09-15T17:24:52.819-07:002015-09-15T17:24:52.819-07:00Jumper said...
Will suspended animation ever g...<br />Jumper said...<br /> Will suspended animation ever get cheaper than living? If so, a lot of people will be bobbling themselves here on earth as well as spacefarers.<br /><br /><br />Check out "Lockstep" by Karl Schroeder, which depicts an interplanetary (arguably interstellar) society built around using hibernation to great effect. His solution even gets around many of the problems with traveling and visiting your neighbors in a non-FTL world, yet still works much differently than the society built on "bobbling" by Vinge.<br /><br /><br />Matt Gnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-11652650461451129852015-09-15T17:16:42.335-07:002015-09-15T17:16:42.335-07:00I see it as a two-part system. Actually movable ty...I see it as a two-part system. Actually movable type is part 3. Everyone knows Gutenburg, no one knows the paper developers in Europe. Islamic Spain and Portugal.Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-15151080407782346732015-09-15T16:53:08.513-07:002015-09-15T16:53:08.513-07:00Hi Jumper
Paper was important
But paper + scribe...Hi Jumper<br /><br />Paper was important <br />But paper + scribes is not that much cheaper than vellum + scribes<br /><br />It was the two or three orders of magnitude change in cost that came with the printing press that made spreading and preserving new ideas become the defaultduncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-69860918620796536682015-09-15T14:31:12.731-07:002015-09-15T14:31:12.731-07:00Printing press, schminting press: it was learning ...Printing press, schminting press: it was learning to make paper that did the trick.Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-52136593167383896862015-09-15T12:54:37.058-07:002015-09-15T12:54:37.058-07:00Huh... thr thought-provoking locumranch, dropping ...Huh... thr thought-provoking locumranch, dropping by for a visit.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com