Comments on Contrary Brin: Causes for optimism (and care) on the frontiers of...

I wonder if the political cartoonists have been pe...

2008-03-30T09:24:00.000-07:00

I wonder if the political cartoonists have been peeking in on the Contrary Brin site...

EARTH prediction hit: Swiss banking secrecy under ...

2008-03-30T06:11:00.000-07:00

EARTH prediction hit: Swiss banking secrecy under assault. (Not nuclear assault, mind, just legal assault, but still....)

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/29/business/worldbusiness/29swiss.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1206875705-3Q44A4FZnDNaPN0XTZuDKw

"Trying to Get the Swiss to Talk"

As usual, it's not the real crimes that are making them targets; it's tax evasion...

Still more reason for optimism:You may have heard ...

2008-03-30T00:09:00.000-07:00

Still more reason for optimism:

You may have heard that access to fresh water remains the problem about 1/5 of the world's population. Dean Kamen, the genius inventor who created the first insulin pump but is better known for producing the Segway, has invented a radically efficient water purification device with no filters or other parts that need to be replaced.

"You stick a hose into anything that looks wet, and...out comes fresh, clean water."

* It is designed to supply a village with 1,000 liters/day of clean water. (Colbert Report)
* You can use any water source -- ocean, puddle, chemical waste site, hexavalent chrome, arsenic, poison, 50 gallon drum of urine. (Colbert Report)
* Vapor compression distillation is not new. Doing it in such an incredibly efficient way such that it takes only 2 percent of the power of convention distillers is new. (R&D World and Gizmodo commenter)
* The are no filters to replace, no charcoal, no anything disposable (just distillation). (Colbert Report)
* The Slingshot (as its called) can use half the waste heat (450 watts) from a sterling engine electrical generator (prototype also being designed by Kamen's company) to boil its water. (TED)
* The heat put into the water is recovered with a "counter-flow heat exchanger" and recycled to heat the next batch of water (that is part of the novel bit). (TED and Gizmodo commenter)

ToddR: IIRC, "How we lost the moon" was a short s...

2008-03-29T17:25:00.000-07:00

ToddR: IIRC, "How we lost the moon" was a short story in Analog some years back. (Can't remember author and your google skills are probably as good as mine.) 2 sentence synopsis: High energy physics lab on the moon (for good reason apparently) spawns a micro black hole. The black hole slowly consumes the moon from the inside out, eventually leading to a black hole the same mass as the moon was in orbit around the Earth.

--
As for the OOML stuff...
I haven't been keeping up (so thanks for the heads-up), but I'm hardly surprised.

Microsoft has been notorious for obfuscating their own internal protocols and APIs. Writing code which relies on 'bugs' is a great way to make it neigh-impossible for others to make compatible programs. The Samba project's reverse engineering of the Windows file sharing stuff provides some very good examples. (BTW: Samba ends up actually being more reliable than the Windows code it was made to interoperate with.)

"Campaigners in the US are attempting to delay the...

2008-03-29T12:18:00.000-07:00

"Campaigners in the US are attempting to delay the start-up of the world's most powerful particle smasher with a lawsuit claiming it could spawn dangerous particles or mini black holes that will destroy the entire Earth."

http://tinyurl.com/37ruxs

Didn't some guy write some sort of sci-fi book about this kind of thing a while back?

Brother Doug, I invite you to read Neal Stephenson...

2008-03-29T12:17:00.000-07:00

Brother Doug, I invite you to read Neal Stephenson's Baroque Cycle. It'll take you months! :-)

NoOne, you are right in saying that one of Microso...

2008-03-29T05:36:00.000-07:00

NoOne, you are right in saying that one of Microsoft's biggest cash cows is the Office suite. I have no problem with them proposing a documentation standard based on that suite (indeed, it makes a lot of sense for everybody that they do so)

Where they have come unstuck is in 'arranging' to have a 3000 page definition fast-tracked for approval (there's an oxymoron in there somewhere). Something that size should have been subjected to proper scrutiny.

Where their true intentions have been revealed has been in the nature of the proposed standard itself. A standard seasoned with a selection of 'secret herbs and spices' that are the province of only one company is not a standard. It is a chain.

Where they have incurred a great deal of displeasure is in the blatant heavy-handed sledgehammer tactics they have employed to guillotine, gag, bribe, bully and generally force the committee members to 'just say yes' without a proper assessment of the standard.

---

To follow Zorgon's optimism riff: Yes, Jester, it is amazing. Not so long ago it would not have been possible.

Speaking of optimism...even more cause for good ch...

2008-03-29T02:54:00.000-07:00

Speaking of optimism...even more cause for good cheer:

The Rebirth of Buses: N.Y. to D.C. for $1 -- Supercheap Fares and High Gas Prices Help Fuel a Renaissance in Bus Travel

Up to the late 1940s, trolleys and busses represented the main mode of transportation for most Americans in big cities. No American complained about `terrible hardship' when travelling by bus or trolley -- in fact, Los Angeles even had a subway back in the 1930s! Cheap gasoline ended that era of cheap efficient public transit, but now it's returning. Clearly public policy and government have big roles to play here, but it's worth remembering that this offers a good example of the free market acting to solve our oil dependency by itself.

Cells' disease machinery silenced: Scientists say they have taken a major step towards a new generation of drugs for many conditions, including cancer.

"Writing in Nature, a Danish team said they had `silenced' key genetic material in cells called RNA, thought to play an important role in disease.

"Working on monkeys, they cut the animals' cholesterol levels by silencing strands of micro-RNA in liver cells controlling its metabolism."

Democratic governor of Alabama, unjustly railroaded into prison by Karl Rove and corrupt assistant U.S. attorneys, has been ordered released from prison by an appeals court.

Excellent essay "How To Disagree" by Paul Garham.

Asking for hard evidence, preferably published in peer-reviewed journals, and pointing out internal logical contradictions in an opponent's arguments, represents the two most effective methods of debate in my experience. They're also two of the most civilized, which makes it even nicer. Also: asking "What evidence would you require to disconfirm your claim about [X]?" proves highly effective. If your online opponent can't answer, it tends to demolish hi/r credibility.

A disproportionate number of far-right assertions today boil down to belief systems which can't be disconfirmed by any possible evidence.

Viz., claims about supply side economics. If we get economic growth after tax cuts, this "proves" supply side economics works...but if we fail to get economic growth after tax cuts, this only "proves" that the tax cuts weren't large enough, and we need bigger tax cuts.

Q: What evidence would a supply-side economist require to disconfirm the supply-side hypothesis?

A: No possible evidence can ever disconfirm the supply-side hypothesis. Shouldn't this raise our suspicions?

If violence in Iraq declines, it's proof that the surge is working -- but if violence in Iraq increases, it's also proof that the surge is working!

Q: What evidence would Iraq war supporters require to disconfirm their claim that the surge is working?

A: No possible evidence can ever disconfirm the claim. Once again, this should make us very suspicious.

As a general rule, we find claims which can never be disconfirmed only in the most bogus belief systems -- ufology, the search for Bigfoot, psychic surgery, dowsing, astrology, dowsing and astral projection.

Common sense suggests that all public policy must have a failure condition. That is to say, some condition under which we can all acknowledge that the policy doesn't work, and something else must be tried.

I have found that a good question to ask conservative ostriches is: Does your public policy have a failure condition?

When do we stop doing [X] and start trying something else?

Liberals have acknowledged failure conditions for welfare (the Clinton welfare reform), political correctness in higher education, racial hiring quotas, and Keynsian deficit economics (oil shocks & stagflation) and pacifism (first Iraq war, Bosnia).

Have today's conservatives acknowledged failure conditions for any of their belief systems? If not, what does this suggest about current right-wing policy proposals?

Under what conditions can we agree that:

* The Iraq war has failed?
* Tax cuts for the rich have failed?
* Privatization of government functions have failed?
* Pereptually increasing military spending has failed?
* NAFTA/CAFTA has failed?
* Creationism has failed?
* McCarthy-style politics of divisiveness and hate has failed?

In my experience, it's effective to point out to ostriches that a public policy without a failure condition is like a car without brakes. Ask your ostrich friends: Would you drive on the freeway in a car without brakes? Why, then, ask our whole society to do so?

Dr. BrinNot every alpha post has to be a masterwor...

2008-03-29T02:36:00.000-07:00

Dr. Brin

Not every alpha post has to be a masterwork :)

We know you're human, and unless you're trying something out on us for later publication elswhere, feel free not to sink a whole lot of time into it.

You post a lot of interesting links. I'm torn between my selfishness in wanting another book out of you and my selfishness in wanting to use you as my web-crawler. ;)

Don't feel it's an all or nothing thing, and don't succumb to the "some one is wrong on my blog comments" trap.

Whatever time you have to spare is appreciated, but that family comes first and "the real work" comes way before this Blog is understood.

If I can step WAY over the line for just a moment, an effective time management strategy I've used before is "X hours a week" - whether it's reading comments, or writing alpha posts, or responding, or whatever, just give yourself one or two hours a week for "blog activities/KOS time/ect."

Not on a schedule or anything, just a stop watch next to the computer that ony gets re-set on Sunday. It hits one or two hours, or whatever, it's done untill next week.

Anyway, it's been pretty amazing getting to argue with one of the finest living authors in of my favorite genres.

zorgon, looks like you're on flamekeeper duty at O...

2008-03-28T23:02:00.000-07:00

zorgon, looks like you're on flamekeeper duty at Optimism Temple for a while.

Peace and vitality, David (Hope)Brin(ger).

Tony Fisk said "Check out this Groklaw article in ...

2008-03-28T20:27:00.000-07:00

Tony Fisk said "Check out this Groklaw article in which someone spills the beans on the shenanigans that have been going on around the ISO fast tracking of the OOXML documentation standard."

Microsoft makes most of its profits from Windows and Office. I don't have the figures but I'd bet that these are their two big cash cows. Getting OOXML adopted as an ISO standard is of incredible importance to them since i) it can become a requirement in govts worldwide and ii) only Office will implement it well enough since there's not enough information - only 6000 pages - to implement the standard.

I must confess though that I did not expect Microsoft to stoop this low.

I just received the April edition of Scientific Am...

2008-03-28T19:35:00.000-07:00

I just received the April edition of Scientific American, which looks like it has some pretty cool articles in it.

Articles on regrowing limbs, reclaiming the Aral Sea and determining the likely colouration of alien vegetation. (not such an academic exercise with instruments capable of analysing the absorption spectra of extra-solar planets on the verge of reality)

The really cool thing about it was an image accompanying a letter concerning Hugh Everett's 'many world' hypothesis. It isn't available online but, if you look at a similar image, and an earlier comment of mine, you will see why I think it is cool!

It sounds like the E8 theory of everything has been knocked out. Pity.

Rob H. As an apparently late comer to the Babylon 5 universe, you may be interested in hearing (if you haven't already) that the full scripts have been progressively released, with the final volumes just coming available for order.

====

While we've been discussing the kings and queens on the world board, we should also bear in mind the pawns and bishops. Have your online documents had an odour about them lately? A sort of 'Ook' smell?

Check out this Groklaw article in which someone spills the beans on the shenanigans that have been going on around the ISO fast tracking of the OOXML documentation standard. A lot of people appear to be getting very desparate!

As someone succinctly put it: maybe governments can mandate that car tyres meet a certain standard, but can they mandate a standard that only Bridgestone can meet?

I don't have a problem with Mi... I mean ECMA proposing a standard based on Word. I do have a problem with the crass, abusive way they are trying to get it adopted.

You may not think it important. I think it has a lot of ramifications if Mi... I mean ECMA get their standard adopted (shades of Nov 2000).

As PJ puts it:
... I see an anonymous comment suggest that ISO now stands for: [I Sold Out]

But isn't it good to see how many are refusing to do so? Consider the pressure, the threats, the stacking the deck, evidently some promises too, not to mention the confusing and ever changing rules, and it's remarkable. And yet all around the world, people have the courage and the integrity to say No.

Good luck on the novel, that should be your primar...

2008-03-28T14:08:00.000-07:00

Good luck on the novel, that should be your primary focus. I recently finished Earth after giving up on it years ago. Lots of good ideas in that book, but I could not enjoy it until page 150 or so. Keep this one shorter. Sky horizion was just the right lenth for a good read.

Brother doug

Frank: This is blackmail!Hawkeye: 'Blackmail' is s...

2008-03-28T10:07:00.000-07:00

Frank: This is blackmail!
Hawkeye: 'Blackmail' is such an ugly word.
B.J.: We prefer 'extortion'.

"M.A.S.H."

I'd call it blackmail, but extortion works...

@Robert -- It's distasteful and self-destructive, ...

2008-03-28T09:06:00.000-07:00

@Robert -- It's distasteful and self-destructive, but isn't blackmail. Blackmail involves threatening to reveal a secret fact. Withholding donations from congressional campaigns because of a stated position is a threat, but it isn't blackmail.

It's just dirty, dirty politics.

@AnonymousWhat you describe seems remarkably like ...

2008-03-28T06:39:00.000-07:00

@Anonymous

What you describe seems remarkably like a flash mob. Which means that I don't believe for one red minute that no one is organizing it. Someone's doing the PR, someone's attracting people like you -- it may be you. But there is a focal point to most movements (a core group, it's not always an individual). That you do not know about the core does not say that the core does not exist.

Clinton's New Strategy appears to be to win in 2012. Not that I think it's a likely strategy, even then.

Quick comment: is it just me or are Clinton suppor...

2008-03-27T22:25:00.000-07:00

Quick comment: is it just me or are Clinton supporters trying to blackmail her way into the White House? I mean, threatening to withhold funds unless Florida and Michigan delegates are seated... threatening Pelosi for speaking her mind rather than blindly backing Clinton... I wish I could say I'm shocked. But this is pretty much how it appears to me.

Rob H.

Godspeed, Dr. Brin. I for one wish I was well-info...

2008-03-27T20:22:00.000-07:00

Godspeed, Dr. Brin.

I for one wish I was well-informed enough to contribute something here.

I was really amazed by the fragment of "The Smarte...

2008-03-27T19:56:00.000-07:00

I was really amazed by the fragment of "The Smartest Mob" mentioned in your recent post, Dr. Brin. I'm actually a part of one of these spontaneous citizen posses at this very moment! It's crude compared to the example given in your novel fragment, but the resemblances are really striking. I'll give you a background in case you might be interested.

In January a clip of a looney Tom Cruise was posted to the net. Scientology tried to remove it. This caught the attention of a loosely bound group of net pranksters known as "Anonymous", named such more or less because nobody knows anybody else within it. Anonymous declared 'war' on Scientology and in the usual prankster way launched DDoS attacks on Scientology sites, made prank phone calls, black faxes, etc.

Then, a well-known critic of Scientology (a specialist for this cause) criticized Anonymous for their mildly illegal actions and suggested a change in tack to legal activism and protest.

Uncharacteristically Anonymous took heart and so far there have been two GLOBAL protests at "churches" around the world, and there are more to come. We've also been waging an old-media campaign and a net infowar of propaganda, not to mention been interacting with the US government to revoke the cult's tax-exempt status. It's terribly well coordinated, much more so than most protests these days. There's several forums and wikis being used for organization though the biggest is enturbulation.org. There are individuals contributing of all stripes, from lawyers to hackers to doctors to regular joes. Young and old, from all walks of life so long as they have net access.

The amazing thing is there's no hierarchical command structure. No heads, no leaders. It's like a flock of starlings flying in formation!

Scientology, whose command structure (hierarchical, tyrannical, dictatorial, quite Nazi-like the Germans will tell you) was developed in the 50's and refuses to adapt (it's against doctrine!) and as such they're stunned and confused by this new wave of activism, having never encountered anything like it before. In the past they always knew who to go after and DESTROY (not hyperbole, I assure you) when anybody levied even the slightest bit of criticism against them. They're at a total loss as to what to do now. They're trying, and each attempt fails in spectacularly humorous ways.

The rotating pole is an interesting problem. The r...

2008-03-27T15:28:00.000-07:00

The rotating pole is an interesting problem. The rotating frame of reference implies a case for general relativity, so things could get very interesting.

---

Sprung, eh?

Oh, well. It is, as they say, 'a fair cop'. And one entry a week is better than nothing.

Good luck with the writing. I suppose I could extract digit and get the little tale I've been mulling for a while into a state where it can vanish into the Baen mush pile.

(I could get back to work too! Gad!!)

Finally got around to watching the TED talk... my ...

2008-03-27T15:24:00.000-07:00

Finally got around to watching the TED talk... my impression: 'whatever'.

I'm familiar with the 'two minds' thing, and know about the massive filtering and associative memory system of the brain. I've taken LSD and had a few friends who have reached 'nirvana' and more permanently disconnected from reality (also known as destroying themselves.)

There is no such thing as spiritual energy. Unless you are talking about astrophysics, talking about 'cosmic energy' is just woo.

Yeah, the 'spiritual' or 'mystical' feelings people get have a neurological basis... but that does not make them reflective of reality.

Here are some interesting (IMO at least) points re...

2008-03-27T14:30:00.000-07:00

Here are some interesting (IMO at least) points regarding polls and such:

20-30% of the general populace have strong authoritarian tendencies. They are exceedingly difficult to understand at an empathy level for folks like me (and I assume the vast majority of people here) with anti-auhtoritarian / libertarian tendencies.

A disturbingly large portion of the population 'knows' things that are simply not true. Propaganda is part of it, but confirmation bias (and skilled exploiters of it) are the core reason IMO. Count on a good proportion of supporters of a particular candidate to believe the candidate takes positions they actually do not, as well as just holding false beliefs about relevant facts. This isn't really 'a pox on both houses'... the GOP will have a significant excess of deluded supporters.

I've already posted these two links, but, if you will indulge me, I believe they reveal very important insights.

The Authoritarians by sociologist/psychologist Altemeyer
The Separate Realities of Bush and Kerry Supporters PIPA survey results

@David,Thrive, sir. It's a good promise to keep, i...

2008-03-27T14:15:00.000-07:00

@David,

Thrive, sir. It's a good promise to keep, if you make it to your wife.

Do announce the publication of the book, when it's ready!

I'll play the bad cop:Quit hanging around with you...

2008-03-27T11:15:00.000-07:00

I'll play the bad cop:

Quit hanging around with your no-good hoodlum friends and finish your homework!

I know where you're coming from, Dr. Brin. I'm beh...

2008-03-27T10:11:00.000-07:00

I know where you're coming from, Dr. Brin. I'm behind on my reviews and on my own writing because this blog is so addictive. I'd say I've an internet addiction except I can pull away (usually to read a good book or watch more Babylon 5)... so as far as addictions go, it's not the biggest one. ;)

Rather than go cold turkey however, what you (and others of us also addicted to this site) can do is limit ourselves to 30-60 minutes a day. Read through comments, prepare one comment in response, and leave it at that. Set a timer to make sure you live up to that time limit. And then force yourself to that limit.

Procrastination is one of the easiest things in the world to do. Oddly enough... this blog helps with procrastination because it's fun to have intelligent discourses with people here and to check out what people have to say. It's time for more than you to get back to writing books and the like... and to blog less.

Good luck with your novel, Dr. Brin. I look forward to purchasing it when it comes out.

Robert A. Howard, who likewise has to cut back on blogging