tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post6045002865999009495..comments2024-03-28T23:39:08.616-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Rockin' science. A comet aimed at Mars? Telepathic rats. And more….David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-25888041474202657082013-03-07T23:04:56.281-08:002013-03-07T23:04:56.281-08:00Rob H,
Or nationalised them while they are cheap. ...Rob H,<br />Or nationalised them while they are cheap. <br /><br />(Buy low, sell high :)Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-73361753390605369202013-03-07T16:57:16.371-08:002013-03-07T16:57:16.371-08:00I love Iceland. The men left their fishing boats ...I love Iceland. The men left their fishing boats to launch banks, leveraged to Andromeda and called themselves geniuses... then collapse... and the women stepped in and took over everything and sent the men back to sea!David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-16125073422444113712013-03-07T14:41:25.146-08:002013-03-07T14:41:25.146-08:00Just as an aside, here's a fascinating video i...Just as an aside, <a href="https://www.upworthy.com/a-country-decided-not-to-bail-out-its-banks-and-this-is-what-happened?c=bl3" rel="nofollow">here's a fascinating video interview of the President of Iceland</a>, who suggests that the reason the Eurozone is doing poorly is they keep bailing out their banks. And I have to say, there may be some merit to that... and I wonder how much better the U.S. economy would be if we'd just let the Too Big to Fail banks... fail. And then paid off the maximum for each account according to the federal insurance on the accounts.<br /><br />Rob H.Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-48425991744478413042013-03-07T12:52:37.677-08:002013-03-07T12:52:37.677-08:00I'm not sure why we would bother ditching the ...I'm not sure why we would bother ditching the work of simulating the parts of the brain that manage motor functions. I suspect those will be easier to grasp than the more complex features. We won't have to ditch them if the goal is simplificaton of a tough problem because we will already understand them.<br /><br />I also don't see what there is to worry about when it comes to calculations done inside a neuron. If that turns out to be the case, the simulations that don't correctly model it will fail to immitate us. When that day arrives, we diversify our exploration paths and try again. It might take longer than expected if we have to model more detail, but that changes the estimated arrive of the 'future' by one or more Moore periods. It doesn't eliminate that possible future.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-67909198642764731682013-03-07T12:35:55.798-08:002013-03-07T12:35:55.798-08:00Simulating the average human intellect is well wit...Simulating the average human intellect is well within our current technical capabilities.<br /><br />First, we start with a factory standard Mac or IBM-compatible laptop and jury-rig some sort of automatic sensory apparatus so it can accumulate data independently;<br /><br />Second, we direct it to exhibit an overwhelming sense of self-importance, self-interest & selfishness so it will make personal survival its #1 priority;<br /><br />Third, we program it with any number of arbitrary belief systems along the lines of racism, classism, social entitlement, quantum mechanics, economic theory, predestination, universal paternalism & immateriality;<br /><br />Fourth, we instruct it to ignore and/or reject any sensory data that contradicts its pre-programmed arbitrary belief systems, leaving us with a rationalizing machine capable of self-deception; and<br /><br />Abracadabra !! We have simulated the human intellectual capacity of the average GOP conservative.<br /><br />Not so optimistic, btw, as to our ability to create an AI of above human intellectual capacity. Also suspicious that we would be unable to recognize such a super-human intellect even if we succeeded in creating one.<br /><br />Best.locumranchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-39863299114782557302013-03-07T12:23:45.875-08:002013-03-07T12:23:45.875-08:00Hello Dr. Brin. First of all let me say that I hav...Hello Dr. Brin. First of all let me say that I have been reading your books since I can across The Uplift War back in 1987. It just blew me away to say the least and I have followed you ever since. I could go on for a long time about how it made me think and influenced me greatly but I am sure you have heard it all before. I will just say keep up the great work. My life is richer because of your writings. Now I will get to the reason I am commenting on your article. <br />There have been more studies lately about the possibility that a complicated nervous system uses quantum tunneling to perform some of its everyday functions. There is some evidence that the olfactory system uses quantum tunneling vastly increase its sensitivity in differencing similar molecules. I find this fascinating. What if this is just the tip of the iceberg? What if the brain uses quantum processes in many more ways? What if as one researcher said “. It’s quantum all the way down”! Instead of just a collection of chemical processes life then becomes much deeper phenomenon. Even primitive nervous system could be “wired into” a quantum substrate. It would be ironic if we find that intelligence is even more involved in the quantum world. AI might just be much further away than previously thought. If our brains are actually very sophisticated quantum computers then perhaps an earthworm has more computing power than the brightest computers now. If we are quantum creatures then the door is wide open for speculations not only in science but also in philosophy, religion, morality, and ethics. After all if we are intimately meshed with the quantum world then we open up a whole new existence. It is going to be so fun! <br />Deuxglasshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488986307291616948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-78731895918381248622013-03-07T12:23:13.876-08:002013-03-07T12:23:13.876-08:00
Hello Dr. Brin. First of all let me say that I h... <br />Hello Dr. Brin. First of all let me say that I have been reading your books since I can across The Uplift War back in 1987. It just blew me away to say the least and I have followed you ever since. I could go on for a long time about how it made me think and influenced me greatly but I am sure you have heard it all before. I will just say keep up the great work. My life is richer because of your writings. Now I will get to the reason I am commenting on your article. <br />There have been more studies lately about the possibility that a complicated nervous system uses quantum tunneling to perform some of its everyday functions. There is some evidence that the olfactory system uses quantum tunneling vastly increase its sensitivity in differencing similar molecules. I find this fascinating. What if this is just the tip of the iceberg? What if the brain uses quantum processes in many more ways? What if as one researcher said “. It’s quantum all the way down”! Instead of just a collection of chemical processes life then becomes much deeper phenomenon. Even primitive nervous system could be “wired into” a quantum substrate. It would be ironic if we find that intelligence is even more involved in the quantum world. AI might just be much further away than previously thought. If our brains are actually very sophisticated quantum computers then perhaps an earthworm has more computing power than the brightest computers now. If we are quantum creatures then the door is wide open for speculations not only in science but also in philosophy, religion, morality, and ethics. After all if we are intimately meshed with the quantum world then we open up a whole new existence. It is going to be so fun! <br />Deuxglasshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03488986307291616948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-73925912236508771142013-03-07T07:39:39.003-08:002013-03-07T07:39:39.003-08:00Which makes you wonder: Just how powerful would a ...Which makes you wonder: Just how powerful would a computer need to be in order to replicate all of the aspects that are behind human intelligence? Including the influence of parasites, viruses, symbiotes, and environment? And now replicate this on a large scale. And then add into this the billions of trillions of life forms on the planet (from the smallest virus to the largest whale)... planetary mechanics, stellar mechanics, interstellar mechanics, galactic mechanics... you are talking a level of complexity here that I'm not sure a quantum computer the size of a planet could replicate (especially if you consider the larger the computer, the longer it takes light to move from one area to the next, resulting in lag... and quantum entanglement likely would not be of use on a huge scale due to the possibility widescale entanglement ends up snarling into a quantum knot).<br /><br />In short... how can you simulate a universe? We do not even understand how our own bodies function fully (note that we're just now realizing the appendix may not be unnecessary after how long of believing otherwise? Next up, tonsils!) so how do we go on to simulate a world down to the subatomic level?<br /><br />Simulations of humanity would likely be on a small scale. I could see scientists simulating astronauts on an interstellar mission as you have a limited environment and a limited number of subjects. But once you grow to a certain level I'm not sure even the most powerful of computers could keep up.<br /><br />Which of course leads to my belief that we should not go around trying to poke holes in imaginary simulations to "prove" otherwise as that just encourages people to try and destroy the simulation... and destructive behavior is not good for society or this planet.<br /><br />Rob H.Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-91679482258763249042013-03-07T06:55:15.521-08:002013-03-07T06:55:15.521-08:00Even if it is possible to make a sapient computer,...Even if it is possible to make a sapient computer, it remains to be seen how exactly like a human's mind it can be without a body.<br /><br />We're only just now starting to realize how much of the 'mind' is not the brain. For example, if your heart takes longer to come down from an elevated rate, it will be harder to calm down when you are angry. Or, they have also found that your gut flora can affect the way your mind works. Atttempts to just copy over a brain would miss those nuances.sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-5761352427210433882013-03-07T01:24:24.188-08:002013-03-07T01:24:24.188-08:00Even if computers are, for some arbitrary reason, ...Even if computers are, for some arbitrary reason, never able to replicate the function of the brain, it's clear that brain cells can.<br /><br />And judging by the encephalization index, most of any animal's brain is concerned with running its body. So replicating only the parts required for intelligence may only require small specialist artificially grown or printed brains.<br /><br />I mean, a parrot or corvid's brain isn't large to start with. Strip out the parts that monitor/control its body, and how much is left.<br /><br />So even if we can't replicate the brain in silicon, it doesn't mean we can't understand certain brain functions enough to extract them and replicate them in specialist pseudo-brains.Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-18947434249998478022013-03-06T21:05:10.196-08:002013-03-06T21:05:10.196-08:00A cometary impact on Mars would not be in the dino...A cometary impact on Mars would not be in the dinosaur-killing category but the climactic effects would likely be a couple of orders of magnitude greater than the Toba eruption that caused the Year without a winter.<br /><br />You'd probably have a couple of decades at least of severe volcanism, marsquakes and wild climactic swings.<br /><br />It'd probably kill any realistic prospect of a human mission ot Mars or all our lifetimes.Ianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01739671401151990700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-31729844413740132202013-03-06T15:32:21.354-08:002013-03-06T15:32:21.354-08:00Explanation creates the illusion of purpose on a p...Explanation creates the illusion of purpose on a purposeless universe.<br /><br />Evolution is not a thing that can have purpose. Creating diversity just happens to be a successful method for surviving the unexpected and unpredictable. There is more upside than downside potential to error in many situations, so the ratchet turns one way and catches the other way... not that there is 'a' way, though. The appearance of 'a way' is an explanation. 8)Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-48208359914763236352013-03-06T13:38:31.178-08:002013-03-06T13:38:31.178-08:00A hit on Mars would be spectacular and probably wo...A hit on Mars would be spectacular and probably worth (science) the inevitable damage to our orbiters and difficulty sending more through the debris.<br /><br />Alas, more likely is a near miss, which could destroy the orbiters with rocky stuffDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-67970577247546023162013-03-06T12:37:38.702-08:002013-03-06T12:37:38.702-08:00If the Comet did hit, could there be a chance of P...If the Comet did hit, could there be a chance of Phobos and Deimos getting a little brother from debris kicked up from the surface?sociotardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11697154298087412934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-83790725219675711222013-03-06T07:33:56.676-08:002013-03-06T07:33:56.676-08:00Rather than making a bad philosophical point, I am...Rather than making a bad philosophical point, I am making my philosophical point badly. In 'Everything is Obvious, Once You Know the Answer ...', author Duncan J. Watts made this point better by explaining that the popularity of the Mona Lisa is an illusion: <br /><br />“We claim to be saying that the Mona Lisa is the most famous painting in the world because it has attributes X, Y and Z. But really what we’re saying is that the Mona Lisa is famous because it’s more like the Mona Lisa than anything else.” <br /><br />In other words, he is saying that inevitable occurrences or obvious truths only appear inevitable or obvious in the retrospective rear-view mirror. The same analogy holds true for commonly held truths like Climate Change or the Triumph of Capitalism which are only true because they have all ready happened. <br /><br />These things (the Mona Lisa, CC, the victory of capitalism, etc) are 'fait accompli'. They represent the PAST in actuality because they have already happened and they can only be said to represent the FUTURE in the sense that 'an object in motion tends to remain in motion', a truism also known as 'history repeats itself'.<br /><br />But this is the problem with all types of predictive simulation. They assume that what has happened will continue to happen; they expect the expected; and they cannot expect the unexpected which is why most of us, even great 'Futurists' like DB, are future fearful when an unexpected comet appears and threatens everything that is known, inevitable or obvious.<br /><br />Best.locumranchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-54207485701801799582013-03-05T23:37:02.512-08:002013-03-05T23:37:02.512-08:00Arguing backwards you are.
Ideas like Continuous ...Arguing backwards you are.<br /><br />Ideas like Continuous Evolution, Incremental Improvement, Biological Progress, Singularity and Humane Transhumanism are merely the teleological equivalent of Intelligent Design. Evolutionary genetic "improvement" simply does not work in such a focused, forward-looking or predetermined fashion. <br /><br />Instead, 'Evolution' is replete with an excess of extinctions, lurches, false starts, uncertain victories and irreversible dead-ends. It is 'backwards-looking' in the sense that evolution prepares biological life for conditions which have already occurred (fait accompli). <br /><br />It only appears to represent progressive 'teleological inevitability' in retrospect, much in the same way that tired old technologies like ceramic water filters, galvanic neuro-stimulation, intracellular ion channel-based computing and making music with your hands (gloved or ungloved) appear to be the future BECAUSE they represent a known past quantity.<br /><br />Expectation only equals Occurrence in retrospect: <br /><br />Evolution does not and cannot be said to prepare life for an unknown future. To argue otherwise is to perpetuate irrational nonsense, the equivalent of discussing the unthinkably 'unexpected' nature of the future when such a discussion presupposes all manner of expectation, precognition and forethought.<br /><br />In the same vein: Screw the orbiters and bring on the comet. The Martian environment can't be more inhospitable; a comet-strike can only improve it from the human perspective; and our technology should be allowed to succeed or fail based on its own merits.<br /><br /><br /><br />Best. locumranchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-89744175176980731502013-03-05T22:40:48.492-08:002013-03-05T22:40:48.492-08:00I have become worried that a near miss by the come...I have become worried that a near miss by the comet may harm the three orbiters...David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-59992689576081245802013-03-05T22:29:48.497-08:002013-03-05T22:29:48.497-08:00A Martian comet strike would seem natural material... A Martian comet strike would seem natural material for Kim Stanley Robinson, "If we take this hit, it may kill half of us, but the survivors will have more breathable air.".Tim H.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-20813277350068425352013-03-05T19:22:53.823-08:002013-03-05T19:22:53.823-08:00Amusingly, O, I was abstracting The Economist earl...Amusingly, O, I was abstracting The Economist earlier today and one of the articles was about research into developing a three-dimensional model of neural connections within the brain. There are various methods of doing this, including embedding a brain in plastic, taking microscopic slices, and imaging it with electron microscopes... and tracking water molecules along neural pathways.<br /><br />In short: in ten years? We may have a proper three-dimensional map of the brain and thus start gaining a better understanding of it.<br /><br />(And in an another article I found out there's a full-size model of a whale fossil being printed through three-dimensional printing that will be hopefully on display at the Smithsonian Institution. It'll be the largest 3D printed object to date.)<br /><br />Rob H.Acacia H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07678539067303911329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-26919321719662216462013-03-05T18:03:16.825-08:002013-03-05T18:03:16.825-08:00I think Mars taking a comet shot would be a boon f...I think Mars taking a comet shot would be a boon for the possibility of terraforming Mars. In the future, we may harvest comets to re-hydrate the red planet.Mark Hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03654426133231597706noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-52713111248828379612013-03-05T17:53:17.757-08:002013-03-05T17:53:17.757-08:00Even if the brain is calculable, it may be many mo...Even if the brain is calculable, it may be many more Moore's Law doublings further downstream than Ray K thinks. He was not happy when I raised the possibility of INTRACELLULAR COMPUTING... that perhaps many hundreds or more "calculations" take place inside neurons and other brain cells, for every neuron that actually flashes.<br /><br />If so, then we are even more marvelous... and even harder to replicate. And plans to freeze heads in order to recreate the "connectome" of synapses may only render a rough approximation.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-35223702208418940212013-03-05T17:26:53.742-08:002013-03-05T17:26:53.742-08:00...Writing longish spiels on mobile is fraught wit......Writing longish spiels on mobile is fraught with pitfalls!Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-77080484082635942592013-03-05T17:25:32.072-08:002013-03-05T17:25:32.072-08:00Read 'The Killers of Eden' which is an acc...Read 'The Killers of Eden' which is an account of the Eden whale company. The relationship lasted at least two generations. It ended when all the pod members died. No real account of how it started, though.<br /><br />The skeleton of orca pod leader 'Old Tom', is on display at the Eden museum. <br />He used to give the whalers rides by pulling on the harpoon lines.<br />You can see how this wore through his teeth. how it staryed, though.<br />Doesn't really go into how the pact came into existence, though.Tony Fiskhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-63041030364040883842013-03-05T15:27:10.385-08:002013-03-05T15:27:10.385-08:00I am cautiously pessimistic about a true computer ...I am cautiously pessimistic about a true computer simulation of a brain. The brain is much more than its connections. There is a lot of extrasynaptic events that influence neurotransmission, including but not limited to neurotransmitter spillover and the influence of glial cells which somehow I have never seen accounted for in any proposed brain simulation... My two cents.O. Paganhttp://baldscientist.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-83380368359894695332013-03-05T15:10:49.240-08:002013-03-05T15:10:49.240-08:00I submit that the "camp that thinks that huma...I submit that the "camp that thinks that human consciousness [...] simply can’t be replicated in silicon" is just as unfounded as Kurzweilian over-optimism. It may turn out to be true, but the evidence isn't there one way or the other, and the arguments are bad ones.<br /><br />Yes, it may be that one cannot model a brain/mind using anything less complex than the brain. But that just means that you can't replicate a human brain until you have something sufficiently powerful -- <i>not</i> that it is impossible.<br /><br />Nicolelis's analogy to the stock market is a bad one. One <i>can</i> compute the stock market. One cannot <i>predict</i> the stock market, but that is because doing so would require a model much, much more complex than the stock market itself, because trading decisions can be influenced by... well, just about anything. But modeling (or computing) the brain (or the neural syste) is not plainly impossible in principle.gregory byshenkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08565517478782844083noreply@blogger.com