tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post6004134354528100084..comments2024-03-28T15:48:48.514-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: At the heart of the matter... Ukraine, Rapture, and Walken's dazzling prophecyDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger86125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-16416168357614589512020-01-22T20:27:33.823-08:002020-01-22T20:27:33.823-08:00Nice way to finish, Alfred.
onward
onwardNice way to finish, Alfred.<br /><br />onward<br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-44624624086918890822020-01-22T19:55:24.704-08:002020-01-22T19:55:24.704-08:00Jim,
I agree with our host that you argue with so...Jim,<br /><br />I agree with our host that you argue with some cogency, but I also agree with him that you have a blind spot. Let me see if I can poke you there one more time.<br /><br /><i>Every single economic act requires an expenditure of energy.</i><br /><br />Indeed, but how much. Thermodynamics sets some limits, but they aren’t terribly useful most of the time because many of our processes are far from the ideals expressed in those laws.<br /><br />1. Consider ammonia production for a moment. Vital to fertilization of land where there is insufficient fixed nitrogen in the soil. We produce ammonia in staggering amounts and then react with other products to get useful fertilizers. How much energy is required for this from start to finish? Well… one can work through the current industrial processes and make educated estimates and get close, right? No. That merely tells us how we are doing it right now. What other processes might we use? Are there industrial processes that make better use of catalysts? If so, energy requirements drop. What about biological processes? Microbes make use of processes we don’t even know yet. Huge catalysts found by trial and error over billions of years. That suggests we DO NOT KNOW how far we can go in squeezing out energy demands in the production process. We know how much entropy change there is at the end though, right? Nah. For reversible processes, yes. For irreversible ones, no. Where we CAN know is when we are given a process to calculate. Where we can’t know is when we try to reverse that calculation. At best, we might get some decent bounds, but we can have reasonable arguments about them.<br />2. Consider fresh water production, or Aluminum reduction, or Fe reduction from Fe2S3, or any other industrial chemical process. We are in the same situation as we are with ammonia. We can calculate using given processes, but we can’t say much about requirements when we reverse the question.<br />3. Consider CO2 production. Wouldn’t we go straight to biology for this? Skip industrial methods? In the current era, we might. In the late 18th century, probably not.<br />4. Consider yeast production for making beer. No sense even looking for an industrial processes since the little guys reproduce themselves. All you have to do to go industrial is find a way that scales that helps them from poisoning themselves. Oops. Industrial processes came in through the back door? Maybe, but there are options if one is imaginative.<br /> <br /><i>What would be a big mistake (snip) assuming we live in some theoretical universe w[h]ere we can grow the economy though energy efficiency rather than the one we actually live in.</i><br /><br />Not really. We’ve been doing this for millennia. I get that you can’t imagine that you live in this kind of universe, but you do. I’ve lived it as an entrepreneur and in other parts of my professional life. Innovation is often about squeezing out energy requirements because those requirements bring costs into a process. Of course what we are actually optimizing is costs, but I’ve seen it be both quite often.<br /><br />You are making the same mistake made by the authors of ‘Limits to Growth’. You are failing to imagine what innovators actually do. MANY people can’t imagine this, so you aren’t alone. It helps, I suppose, to have lived a life around innovators to see up close what is involved. It removes the need for a leap of imagination and replaces it with small steps along an imaginative path.<br /><br />I think you have things backwards AND confuse correlation with causation. We found a way to get rich by liberating ourselves a bit and in the process tripped across a wildly successful method for innovation that made many things cheaper through efficiency and then discovered in our new found wealth and power that we could do far more in ways that manipulated the world on a macroscale. Innovation does NOT require macro-manipulations and the corresponding energy demands. It might happen that way, but there is no good reason to support it being necessary. As energy becomes more expensive, I’m pretty certain this will be made more obvious.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-4635715683008223612020-01-22T18:33:19.959-08:002020-01-22T18:33:19.959-08:00Larry: Yes, it could conceivably drag out until Ju...Larry: Yes, it could conceivably drag out until June. But there is a 'bandwagon' affect in the primaries where someone with a lead on Super Tuesday tends to augment that lead. <br />Far too early to predictions, which is why I said "presumably" without naming any particular candidate.Zepp Jamiesonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03024670772812706971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-76147353333678891612020-01-22T15:58:39.366-08:002020-01-22T15:58:39.366-08:00I'm starting to think that what I read on Twit...I'm starting to think that what I read on Twitter is correct - it's not that Lindsey Graham is being blackmailed, it's just that his sole drive is to seize and hold onto whatever power he can manage. And at the moment, he's become convinced that the key to power is to keep his nose so tightly wedged into Donnie's ass that his sneezes tickle the presidential prostate.<br /><br />The downside to this, of course, is that it becomes politically difficult for him to cut the cord at this point; suddenly changing to a different position would mark him as an intolerable hypocrite even to his ever-shrinking base in SC. So, thanks to his earlier grab at power, now he's stuck. His only hope is that he can somehow help cover up Donnie's crime spree until the man is forced out of office another way.Jon S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13585842845661267920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-46460381738133199382020-01-22T14:55:07.241-08:002020-01-22T14:55:07.241-08:00@ Dr. Brin: Thank you. These are the sort of envir...@ Dr. Brin: Thank you. These are the sort of environmental improvements we can be proud of- we are NOT living in the environmental disasters of "1989: Population Doomsday," "LA 2017," or "Make Room, Make Room!," though I've heard it said we aren't too far from "*The Sheep Look Up".<br /><br />Back to Russia: <br />Could we say that Russia is practicing a very crude, sloppy form of **Proto-Psychohistory?<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />Keith "What Would Hari Do?" Halperin<br /><br /><br />* I believe that if the banks had gone down in 2008, we would have been living in a cyberpunk novel....<br />** I believe a more exact term would be "Applied Sociology".Keith Halperinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-76022697322240408682020-01-22T14:29:47.193-08:002020-01-22T14:29:47.193-08:00@ Jim: Thank you.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V...@ Jim: Thank you. <br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Very_large_floating_structure<br />https://www.bbc.com/news/world-47827136<br />https://www.greenbiz.com/article/floating-cities-future-or-washed-idea<br />https://www.wired.com/story/sea-levels-are-rising-time-to-build-floating-cities/<br /><br />Some of these discuss the proposed Oceanix City, which aspires to create a scalable platform for the seafaring civilizations of tomorrow and the latest seasteading venture of Marc Collins, French Polynesia’s former minister of tourism and something of a floating-cities veteran. Let us hope hope that this project is more successful than others have been in the past and that Mr. Collins hasn't "*agreed to be C.E.O. of a dumpster fire pirate death ship."<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />KH<br /><br />*LOVE that line!Keith Halperinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-16549874627829716602020-01-22T14:23:18.295-08:002020-01-22T14:23:18.295-08:00In fact, I expect Roberts to 'go liberal' ...In fact, I expect Roberts to 'go liberal' on half a dozen issues, maybe Obamacare, in order to preserve his cred as 'balanced.' But he will never, ever rule in favor of democracy or against the trend toward oligarchic power.<br /><br />Watch. Keep score.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-75670595350364448252020-01-22T14:21:45.903-08:002020-01-22T14:21:45.903-08:00Keith yes there are examples. The forests of the U...Keith yes there are examples. The forests of the US east of Chicago were almost vanished. Now they are 50% or so back, bigtime. Urban use of coal turned cities black along with lungs and made the poisonous London fogs. Urban use of coal was banished and I was in London when they were finishing the big scrape... turning buildings from black to limestone white.<br /><br />Yes, our swithc to remote coal and electricity delivered to cities could be viewed (by jim etc) as zero-sum shifting, still damaging the closed system. (See? A positive summer can envision zero sum views. The reverse is seldom possible.) But it is a criticism-friendly enlightenment system that keeps looking for the next error, as when those power plant smokestacks were nailed for producing Acid Rain and when CFCs were wrecking ozone. Those calamities were addressed quicker than earlier ones, suggesting that awareness might keep up.<br /><br />I said might. The jury is still out. Jim might prove right. After all, the Fermi Paradox.<br /><br />But that's not the underlying issue.... which is snarky-cynical LAZINESS. If someone is in the trenches alongside me, fighting hard for better days, then I'll shrug off his gloomy assessment of our prospects. I cannot shrug off jim's gloom, though. Because he's not given us any evidence that he's actually in the fight for any purpose other than to harrass those trying hard to save us all.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-81861318601949818002020-01-22T12:39:57.486-08:002020-01-22T12:39:57.486-08:00Keith
Sense no one else has responded to your conc...Keith<br />Sense no one else has responded to your concerns, let me sketch out a potential scenario that I think is not impossible.<br /><br /><br />First, lets make a big assumption and pretend that humans on earth find the strength to live within strong limits like the Humans and other sapient races do on JiJo (in the uplift trilogy).<br /><br />If we do that, the basic problem becomes how and where to live in order to minimize the energy you need and maximize your daily access to renewable energy.<br /><br />I think the best place that minimizes your energy needs and maximizes your solar resource and that could support billions of people.........<br /><br />would be floating ocean cities within 5 degrees of the equator.<br /><br />Why?<br /><br />1) No one owns this section of the earth<br />2) No hurricanes can form with in 5 degrees of the equator<br />3) The temperature is mild year round (mid 80’s) (heating and cooling are big energy users today)<br />4) You get lots of solar year round with minimum seasonal variation. (Handling season variation is a huge expense that gets worse the further you get from the equator.)<br />5) You can easily and cheaply tap into icy cold water from the ocean depths to provide refrigeration, air conditioning and most importantly fresh water extraction from the air.<br />6) Transportation to and from the floating city by ship – the most efficient way to move goods and people. (no roads to other cities need to be maintained another big efficiency gain.)<br />7) Because you are designing the city from scratch, internal transportation could by foot, elevator and electric trolly/ subway. Have the human waste products integrated into floating gardens greatly reducing or eliminating synthetic fertilizers.<br />8) If wood products make up a substantial portion of the mass of the city – it would store a huge amount of CO2.<br />9) Equatorial Floating cities are pre-adapted to climate change. Sea level rise – not a problem, massive heat wave with temperatures above 100 – not going to happen.<br /><br /><br />The big question is can we build floating ocean cities - I am not sure but I get the feeling it would be about 6 orders of magnitude easier than a Mars colony. <br />jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07865068658069680309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-859759661838187322020-01-22T12:17:37.341-08:002020-01-22T12:17:37.341-08:00https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/J...https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Jan22.html#item-3<br /><i><br />All the Republican state AGs, supported by the Trump administration, are trying to kill Obamacare through the use of a loophole, of sorts. The law requires that people who don't have insurance pay a special tax. In the tax bill that gave a trillion bucks to corporations and rich people, the GOP set the Obamacare tax to zero. The argument is that now that the tax is zero, the law is invalid.<br /></i><br /><br />For as long as I live, I will never understand this "reasoning". The ACA law was already upheld by the Roberts court. If a change like "setting the tax to 0" really does cause a new conflict with the Constitution, then that <b>change</b> is unconstitutional and should be struck down. The change doesn't suddenly make the rest of the law which hasn't changed unconstitutional.<br /><br />"The Consitutionality of the law requires a tax, therefore with the law in place, you can't lower the tax to 0".<br /><br />The new change is what gets judicially reviewed, not the existing law.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-38188070032006568072020-01-22T12:00:18.850-08:002020-01-22T12:00:18.850-08:00@Dr. Brin:
"...pound her...If we reduce that ...@Dr. Brin:<br />"...pound her...If we reduce that burden by 75% those time will come swiftly." <br />Could you elaborate on what you mean by "pounding,""reducing the burden," and how soon is "swiftly"?<br />We COULD do that by 4G-6G WW deaths or eliminating much of the developed nations' population, but that wouldn't be very nice...<br />From your understanding, have there been notable instances of societies effectively dealing with slow-moving crises like our current one(s)? if so, how dis THEY do it?<br />I wonder if some of the current negative environmental practices could (under certain conditions) end relatively quickly after reaching a tipping point, like foot-binding in early Twen Cen China.<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />KeithKeith Halperinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-86379374275935998202020-01-22T11:34:03.042-08:002020-01-22T11:34:03.042-08:00Zepp Jamieson:
After March, when it's (presum...Zepp Jamieson:<br /><i><br />After March, when it's (presumably) settled,<br /></i><br /><br />I'm not so sure. Unlike the Republican side, most Democratic state primaries are proportional. The candidate who gets 45% of the vote ends up with almost as many delegates from that state as the one who gets 55%. In 2008, a big deal was always made about whether Obama or Hillary "won" each state, but for the most part, they were staying even in terms of delegate count.<br /><br />It might not be over until June, if then.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-75342884195582108252020-01-22T11:30:29.588-08:002020-01-22T11:30:29.588-08:00Crum. Earth is wonderfully resilient. If we pound ...Crum. Earth is wonderfully resilient. If we pound her just half as hard as we are doing, we should make it to better times. If we reduce that burden by 75% those time will come swiftly. Notice how jim argues with some cogency. But repeatedly displays that he simply cannot think except in zero sum terms.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-24227638892434322202020-01-22T10:43:45.140-08:002020-01-22T10:43:45.140-08:00Jim wrote: "Do you trust the Trump administra...Jim wrote: "Do you trust the Trump administration to competently deal with a pandemic?"<br /><br />My worst nightmare, and we're reminded by the coronavirus that broke out in China last month and reached the US the other day. In the hands of a competent government, it's no worse than a nasty strain of the flu. In the hands of an incompetent and uncaring government, it could kills millions.Zepp Jamiesonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03024670772812706971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-54769319873521723612020-01-22T10:40:23.302-08:002020-01-22T10:40:23.302-08:00DB wrote: " I just find it very hard to belie...DB wrote: " I just find it very hard to believe anyone believes that centrist dems will vote for Trump. Seriously? That's a fear?"<br /><br />No, but the problem is one you've mentioned in the event Bernie or Warren get the nod: supporters of Biden or whoever might not vote at all in the presidential race. That equates to a vote for the Orange Traitor.<br /><br /><br />The only problem is the timing: now is when Dems contest the ideas, in the primaries. After March, when it's (presumably) settled, do Democrats work out a general platform that will enthuse the most voters.<br /><br />Zepp Jamiesonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03024670772812706971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-34478615214755604572020-01-22T10:22:39.416-08:002020-01-22T10:22:39.416-08:00And Alfred,
of course there is a causal connection...And Alfred,<br />of course there is a causal connection.<br />Every single economic act requires an expenditure of energy.jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07865068658069680309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-32318751227778425382020-01-22T10:10:43.655-08:002020-01-22T10:10:43.655-08:00Alfred
You don't disappoint ;-)
What would be...Alfred<br />You don't disappoint ;-)<br /><br />What would be a big mistake is assuming we live in some theoretical universe were we can grow the economy though energy efficiency rather than the one we actually live in.<br /><br /><br />sure in theory it could happen for a little while but I have not seen any evidence of it happening in real world global data. <br />jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07865068658069680309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-68161952604901755152020-01-22T09:49:43.412-08:002020-01-22T09:49:43.412-08:00CA passed a law that all newly built homes must ha...CA passed a law that all newly built homes must have solar. One of scores of "blue laws" that pass in a steady tide, the the dem gov's top job to sensible send some of them back for calmer re-thinking. Splitters who ignor this aren't just infantile and crazy. Thos are mere traits. They are ignorant, which is correctable, and hence lazey, which is unforgivable.<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-49778605748085379352020-01-22T09:22:52.237-08:002020-01-22T09:22:52.237-08:00Jim,
You are making the case for causality as fa...Jim, <br /><br />You are making the case for causality as far as I can tell. That would be a mistake. Big economies could use less energy than small ones.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-89015438242922895672020-01-22T08:48:15.536-08:002020-01-22T08:48:15.536-08:00As far as I can make out Hillary did not say she w...As far as I can make out Hillary did not say she wouldn't back Bernie. The Salon article headline and first few sentences are highly misleading. They plainly state that Hillary will not support Bernie. If you read the article and the quotes from Clinton you find that she did not state that she would not support Bernie. What she did was decline to answer. She said, <i>"I'm not going to go there yet. We're still in a very vigorous primary season."</i><br /><br />Actually having read the Salon article, I think Hillary makes some accurate points about Bernie. She may have a grudge, but she isn't raving, she isn't making shit up and being that we are in the primaries I think it's perfectly appropriate for her to have said these things. Too bad the reporting was intentionally misleading though.<br /><br />Hillary haters are gonna hate I guess.<br /><br />Then there's this. <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/21/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-democratic-nominee/index.html" rel="nofollow"><b>Hillary Clinton clarifies that she will support the Democratic nominee -- even if it's Bernie Sanders</b></a><br /><br />Well, how about that?Darrell Ehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14054311762477388637noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-16861073291476258782020-01-22T06:38:07.023-08:002020-01-22T06:38:07.023-08:00Alfred
You know, sometimes you really crack me up....Alfred<br />You know, sometimes you really crack me up.<br />I say – a smaller economy uses less energy than a bigger one.<br />You say – CONFIRMATION BIAS!<br />Hilarious <br /><br /><br /><br />In other news – <br />Do you trust the Trump administration to competently deal with a pandemic?<br /><br />Don’t worry he will have a “Perfect” response. (laughing because I don’t want to cry)<br />jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07865068658069680309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-12220171798953821892020-01-22T04:37:37.041-08:002020-01-22T04:37:37.041-08:00Dr Brin:
I have long held that the behavior of m...Dr Brin:<br /><i><br /> I have long held that the behavior of many public figures cannot be explained easily by any other hypothesis than blackmail.<br /></i><br /><br />And for the sake of his soul, I hope the blackmail that they've got on Lindsey Graham is more than just exposure of his sexual orientation. Because if that's all they got, well, this line from a comic book sums it up:<br /><br /><i><br />"...and this spell requires a secret that you haven't told anyone."<br /><br />"I'm not as tall as I tell people I am."<br /><br /><b>"Do I really have to explain what a secret is?"</b><br /></i><br />Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-15634987749875133922020-01-22T04:32:35.140-08:002020-01-22T04:32:35.140-08:00Dr Brin:
LH I have no clear memory of anyone on t...Dr Brin:<br /><i><br />LH I have no clear memory of anyone on this list making that vow [not to vote for Warren or Sanders] .<br /></i><br /><br />I hesitate to malign anyone unfairly, so understand this is from memory alone, but I could swear that Ilithi Dragon made just that comment. If I'm wrong, it is a misremembering on my part rather than deliberate slander a la some people I know.<br /><br />I remember wryly noting that if the person who said that is sincere, then either we've already lost his vote or that of at least two others who insist on voting third party if Biden or Bloomberg gets the nomination.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-31139081488041930052020-01-21T22:57:00.546-08:002020-01-21T22:57:00.546-08:00Adam Schiff again with the late night baller move-...Adam Schiff again with the late night baller move- an amendment that would have allowed the Chief Justice to rule that a witness or evidence is relevant. Basically, saying he would trust the head of the conservative court to be neutral. It was a trap of course, since Hunter Biden (or Joe) cannot be relevant to the crimes by the POTUS. Psychological warfare, and a not-so-subtle nod to Roberts. I'm deeply impressed. matthewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17757867868731829206noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-51956118624304359602020-01-21T21:50:00.805-08:002020-01-21T21:50:00.805-08:00To be clear. I want the Delaware (and Nevada and o...To be clear. I want the Delaware (and Nevada and others) thing fixed, so we can push a world treaty. My instinct is that this is a Nixon-to-China thing and Biden might be beneficial here. But if we ONLY got the 31 shared goals I've listen elsewhere, then we can start from a saved civilization and take on the corps aftern that.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com