tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post58704216581185393..comments2024-03-29T06:22:47.638-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Are we on the verge of economic hurt?David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-77543062207031023712020-09-07T11:41:15.535-07:002020-09-07T11:41:15.535-07:00Dear Unknown troll. You still yammer about Clinton...Dear Unknown troll. You still yammer about Clinton not vetoing Russian private investment in a Canadian company that owned some unranium ores in Canada? Oh you are so desperate. As you desperately try to pretend Putin - who called the fall of the USSR 'history's worst tragedy" is NOT still the same commissar KGB agent he always was.<br /><br />Standard demand: show the guts to offer real stakes for wagers on any of these foxite-putin-KGB talking points. Like which party fosters entrepreneurship or fiscal responsibility. Or any of the drivel you just posted If you haven't the cojones to back them up, all they are is hot air amid your cult's all-out war against every fact-using profession, from science, teaching, medicine and law to the men & women you now curse as "deep state" in intel, the FBI, and military officer corps, who saved us from Hitler, Stalin, Mao and bin Laden.<br /> Blowhards. Escrow real stakes with a reputable attorney and actually BET on all the proved things that you call "hoaxes," like ocean acidification. Let’s pick a dozen (randomly!) of Trump’s 24000 registered lies and bet over them!<br /><br />Or all the hoaxes you claim to be true, like the Soros thing. Or 25 years of absolutely fruitless "clinton investigations". If you're so sure of your Hannity incantations, offer bets and take my money! <br /><br />Oh, but you won't. You know facts are the enemy of your cult. <br />But every time you chicken out from offering cash wagers, look in a mirror and hear the whispered word... "coward."<br /><br /><br />Onward<br /><br />onward<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-57371560084541630512020-09-07T07:19:44.852-07:002020-09-07T07:19:44.852-07:00Mr. Brin,
The Russian collusion has been proven f...Mr. Brin,<br /><br />The Russian collusion has been proven false. In fact it is fact that Hillary Clinton and the majority of Obama's staff signed off on the sale of uranium to the Russians.<br /><br />It is a fact Obama used several bureaucratic departments of the government as weapons against political enemies, spied on allies like Germany, listened to private citizens phone calls without any court supervision.The IRS, the NSA, The US Military, are just a few examples<br /><br />Obama and the left wing blatantly lied to pass the ACA, against the will of the majority.<br /><br />Caused rampant race division using false narratives much like you are using. Every race has been slaves, every race has owned slaves, no one is responsible for what their ancestors did. Not one minority in this country is not over privileged, able to buy , go, do, receive anything by the same rules the majority follows. hint the rules are the same for all Americans.<br /><br />Oligarchies? Really? You do realize that is rule by military around a central leader? That is not happening now anywhere in our country. What is happening is a rise of socialists minorities who want government control of every facet of our lives.<br /><br />You are simply a misled follower or maybe just a common liar. <br /><br />I suggest you read : The Gulag Archipelago 1918–1956 (Abridged)<br />by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn. <br /><br />and possibly<br /><br />The God That Failed<br />by Richard Crossman (Editor), Richard Wright, Arthur Koestler (contributor), Ignazio Silone (contributor), Louis Fischer (contributor), Stephen Spender<br /><br />I would have thought with your imagination, as well as education you would be more intelligent, it seems you are more indoctrinated.<br /><br />I enjoyed your stories, I repurchased Sun diver yesterday for my kindle, deleted it today after reading the insanity in the foreword.<br /><br />Seek help, your kind are killing people across the country, it is sickening.<br /><br /><br /><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18073372251462538751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-81263087469857677902020-09-06T15:17:57.165-07:002020-09-06T15:17:57.165-07:00TCB har. (Tho it also hertz.)
onward
onward
TCB har. (Tho it also hertz.)<br /><br />onward<br /><br />onward<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-81152133373152361552020-09-06T14:54:29.536-07:002020-09-06T14:54:29.536-07:00I was just thinking, nothing Cohen Barr Dejoy I wi...I was just thinking, nothing Cohen Barr Dejoy I will feel when Trump is in like Flynn behind prison Gates, surrounded by armored Carson guards like you'd Manafort, sentenced for Melania to breaking one Stone after another until you can hear his hernia go Papadopoulos. In fact, most of Trump's family should be Putin Pence for one reason or another, eating Broidy water, sleeping on the floor with no Kushner, dreaming of green Meadows they will never see again. The whole Republican Party deserves a Bannon on its Chaos and the whole Cruz should be hurled off a Ratcliffe McConnell constantly Mnuchin off the taxpayers, DeVos amounts of malfeasance, and their countless Sessions of racism and treason.TCBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08153506222271955110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-35394503078214622212020-09-06T14:50:38.368-07:002020-09-06T14:50:38.368-07:00AFR... maybe here or there... but I doubtthe Kreml...AFR... maybe here or there... but I doubtthe Kremlin has that kind of cash reserves. China does. But someone oughta notice. Yeah, Sheldon Adelson launders hundreds of millions through his Macao casinos. But this is lots more.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-59999690443569713172020-09-06T12:43:03.389-07:002020-09-06T12:43:03.389-07:00This Friday evening at 8pm Eastern, at my local ch...This Friday evening at 8pm Eastern, at my local chapter of the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada (RASC), Robert J. Sawyer will be appearing via Zoom.<br />https://mailchi.mp/ead97b959e0d/rasc-mississauga-centre-speaker-night-at-utm-1346242?e=e0afe74edascidatahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04992209167553267488noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-87179536401343999962020-09-06T11:06:56.407-07:002020-09-06T11:06:56.407-07:00There is an idea I've been kicking around for ...There is an idea I've been kicking around for a few weeks now, but haven't figured out a way to test it.<br /><br />Is it possible that Russia is bouying the stock market for Trump? Would a nation-state be able to use it ability to print money to buy stocks in order to keep the stock market from falling? Might it take a while before anyone noticed the excess in cash to cause a loss in the value of the ruble, especially if they kept selling the stocks when they could? If a state decided to keep the stock market of another state artificially high, and concealed it through front companies, would it be apparent?<br /><br />Alas, my one quarter of macro-economics at U.C. Santa Cruz is not enough to analyze this idea and make an educated guess at it's feasibility. Can anyone provide a good critique?A.F. Reyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08102355714883828348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-317464025929286682020-09-06T08:44:20.105-07:002020-09-06T08:44:20.105-07:00gregory byshenk:
To anyone who thinks like this I...gregory byshenk:<br /><i><br />To anyone who thinks like this I would say - just as I do to my other American friends: focus on the Congress. What Biden would do as president is dependent upon the Congress. The Obama administration was hampered partly by their own caution, but much more so by what they could hope to get through Congress.<br /></i><br /><br />I've been singing that song for years now. Every time progressive Senators give up their seats to run for president, I cringe, because we need them in the Senate more than we need them in the White House. At least Bernie Sanders didn't leave the Senate when he ran.<br /><br />Newt Gingrich was being a dick, but he was strategically correct when he was asked in 2012 why he supported Mitt Romney with whom he disagreed on many issues. Gingrich retorted that what they needed from Romney was that he had four fingers and a thumb with which he'd sign legislation. The same goes for Democrats.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-342385203782607332020-09-06T05:59:40.193-07:002020-09-06T05:59:40.193-07:00On Stonekettle's Twitter feed:
I often wonder...On Stonekettle's Twitter feed:<br /><i><br />I often wonder why they try so hard to avoid the charge of racism. After all, wasn’t Trump elected to end the age of political correctness and “tell it like it is”? Why not just own their white supremacism?<br /></i><br /><br />How did I never notice this before? You can't spell "supremacism" without "racism"Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-63257717876678149122020-09-06T03:13:05.863-07:002020-09-06T03:13:05.863-07:00Lorraine said...
President Biden has two choices, ...<b>Lorraine said...</b><br /><i>President Biden has two choices, he can be the next Hoover by governing in a way consistent with his political career so far, basically as a DLC Democrat, or he can be the next F. Roosevelt, and tell the deficit hawks to go [...] get bent.</i><br /><br />To anyone who thinks like this I would say - just as I do to my other American friends: focus on the Congress. What Biden would do as president is dependent upon the Congress. The Obama administration was hampered partly by their own caution, but much more so by what they could hope to get through Congress.<br /><br />If Congress sends a 'Green New Deal' to Biden's desk, do you think he will veto it? Medicare expansion? Minimum wage increase? Expansion in public housing? Voting Rights Act? I would put money on 'no' in all these cases.<br /><br />But any such promises from a candidate are worthless if they are things that won't get through Congress.<br /><br />If you are worried about how many of the Democrats' plans will be enacted, then find a Congressional - or better yet Senate - race to work for. Because <i>that</i> is what will make the difference.gregory byshenkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08565517478782844083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-12705332679139086392020-09-05T20:54:12.887-07:002020-09-05T20:54:12.887-07:00TCB thanks for that. Tell those who ask "What...TCB thanks for that. Tell those who ask "What happened to this Joe Biden?"that the first black president of the United States chose him to be at his side. Then ask: Will you bet me whether you have, across all the last 30 years, done as much for justice as he did in any random week?David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-84263923442379590932020-09-05T16:38:57.596-07:002020-09-05T16:38:57.596-07:00I really like the Joe Biden who yells at George Sc...<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_v00iGJCLY&ab_channel=TheIndependent" rel="nofollow">I really like the Joe Biden who yells at George Schultz for making excuses about apartheid.</a>TCBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08153506222271955110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-86049358674246803962020-09-05T15:11:03.883-07:002020-09-05T15:11:03.883-07:00How the CIA used Fake News to install a fascist go...<a href="https://narratively.com/the-literally-unbelievable-story-of-the-original-fake-news-network/" rel="nofollow">How the CIA used Fake News to install a fascist government in Guatemala in 1954.</a> And how the Russians are using that playbook here, today. A VERY detailed 7 part article with amazing quantities of surviving documentation.<br /><br /><i>The United States was not at war with Guatemala in 1954. But the Boston-based conglomerate known as the United Fruit Company was at war with President Árbenz.</i><br /><br /><i>United Fruit (also known as UFCO) had been cheating on its taxes for years, lying to the Guatemalan government about the value of its banana plantations and the hundreds of thousands of acres of unused land the company was sitting on. Now that Árbenz had passed an agrarian reform bill (similar to those that had in decades past allowed countries like Ireland, Colombia and Canada to break agricultural monopolies and create more competition), Guatemala was buying back untilled land for the value that companies like UFCO had reported on its tax bill. UFCO was being forced to sleep in the bed they’d made, and they were pissed.</i><br /><br /><i>If only someone could get rid of Árbenz.</i><br /><br /><i>The most powerful pair of brothers in the United States, Secretary of State John Foster Dulles and CIA Director Allen Dulles, were not legally allowed to do that sort of thing. But they wanted to. Both were UFCO shareholders and advocates, having worked for the firm for many years. But in a time of peace, well, doing anything more aggressive than writing angry letters would be illegal.</i><br /><br />Sometimes, I say sometimes, in the middle of the night, I think the world is some sort of psychic arena in which karma is as real as gravity, and eventually our sins are carved upon us in the most exquisite detail.TCBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08153506222271955110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-3615339247782581382020-09-05T13:40:20.911-07:002020-09-05T13:40:20.911-07:00@Tim H
Tweaking may not be enough.
Take it From ...@Tim H<br /><br />Tweaking may not be enough.<br /><br /><a href="https://eand.co/american-democracy-will-die-in-60-days-54ce25626c1c" rel="nofollow">Take it From Us Survivors of Authoritarianism — Trump is Preparing to End Democracy For Good</a>Kal Kallevignoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-82772017848185002872020-09-05T09:30:41.545-07:002020-09-05T09:30:41.545-07:00From my perspective "DLC Democrat" merel... From my perspective "DLC Democrat" merely describes the over reaction the 1972 election, but that seems to be relaxing somewhat, quite unlike the (Taxidermied!) GOP's "FDR derangement".<br />Just read an old essay by the late David Graeber:<br /><br />https://thebaffler.com/salvos/of-flying-cars-and-the-declining-rate-of-profit?fbclid=IwAR099TIZUYpVm_g3CNp01-fwNsKJFzlN1s09MZgq9IMFxu8Ehe1l36e6Z_Q<br /><br />Capitalism & the managerial class need some tweaking so they may continue to serve us.Tim H.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12380916635831994159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-953787347379470652020-09-05T08:23:53.223-07:002020-09-05T08:23:53.223-07:00Very passionate, Lorraine. Alas, your position is ...Very passionate, Lorraine. Alas, your position is utterly, utterly contrary to historical fact in all ways. "DLC Democrat" is a term used by our enemies to split our coalition and I defy you to support it with a scintilla of fact. <br /><br />Before you even try, may I suggest actually knowing something? Yopu might start here.<br />http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2019/08/five-devastating-rebuttals-to-use-with.htmlDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-28983612463061624812020-09-05T07:36:08.702-07:002020-09-05T07:36:08.702-07:00We're on the verge of a world of hurt, easily ...We're on the verge of a world of hurt, easily a lost decade, probably a lost generation, in terms of career opportunities and therefore dignity in life.<br /><br />We're already in a state of Depression. President Biden has two choices, he can be the next Hoover by governing in a way consistent with his political career so far, basically as a DLC Democrat, or he can be the next F. Roosevelt, and tell the deficit hawks to go <strike>f</strike>get bent.Lorrainehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13567383019731167967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-36762332043861111572020-09-05T05:47:27.353-07:002020-09-05T05:47:27.353-07:00TCB quoting:
The Privileged Have Entered Their Es...TCB quoting:<br /><i><br />The Privileged Have Entered Their Escape Pods<br /></i><br /><br />Maybe that's the way to get them into the Golgafrinchan B-Ark. Sort of a self-Rapture.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-68568907040628531022020-09-05T05:23:08.895-07:002020-09-05T05:23:08.895-07:00Here is an idea:
A way that Biden can "troll...Here is an idea:<br /><br />A way that Biden can "troll" Unobama the AHole would be to wear a dark blue suit, white shirt, and red tie for the debates - a nice visual contrast.<br /><br />I wonder how this would play to voters.Russell Osterlundhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14856820456499521004noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-91682002378633597562020-09-05T04:44:20.955-07:002020-09-05T04:44:20.955-07:00"Don't worry about single party rule"..."Don't worry about single party rule" <br /><br />In the words of a spoiled tennis brat, you can not be serious".david morrisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-91566994950781238282020-09-04T22:38:13.924-07:002020-09-04T22:38:13.924-07:00Big YES to all. I know my (trivial, but perhaps r...Big YES to all. I know my (trivial, but perhaps representative) contribution to Money Velocity has collapsed since March, when I went into fairly strong Isolation. But the big Bubbles were in place well before that; I've been smelling them for years. Even more to the point, I strongly agree that Infrastructure investment is the best (if not only) way for the USA to get out of this hole. I prefer to call it "Green New Deal", but the name doesn't matter, the action does. But whatever rump GOP remains after the elections (yeah, I'm kinda faking optimism there) will squeal "how are we going to pay for it"; I just hope Biden can just tell them to STFU. <br /><br />- elkernAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-10286510871775683952020-09-04T21:16:03.523-07:002020-09-04T21:16:03.523-07:00My final comment has to do with a shift of perspec...My final comment has to do with a shift of perspective. Instead of looking at asset bubbles strictly in terms of particular assets, one should also be looking at the impact they have on the investment accounts of individual investors. It's one thing for an asset to go parabolic. It's quite another for our accounts to do it.<br /><br />1. If your account's trend line tracks like a typical asset bubble, you are certainly caught up in the hype somewhere with too much invested in high volatility stuff. Smack yourself a few times, sell most everything, and then buy back in using index funds run by people who understand better than you.<br /><br />2. If you want to take a risk on a potential bubble, plan on losing it all. Seriously. You probably will. The House usually wins. It's a sucker bet. You're gonna do it anyway? Okay. Don't risk much. Don't punish yourself later for not risking more just because you got lucky this time.<br /><br />3. Watch your equity account trend line. If it shows a general drift upward, then your approach probably matches the ground truth out there. In the US, there is more money flowing into equity markets than there is stuff to buy most of the time. Sometimes the difference is large. When Supply < Demand... prices go up. Don't expect it to be steady, though. If you go with index investing, your beta should be near 1.0. <br /><br />4. Don't be afraid to get out occasionally. You might miss an uptrend, but you might miss the stampede for the door. Don't watch the news channels to detect the stampede though. It's already too late by the time they report it. Watch your friends and neighbors. If they seem to behave stupidly, maybe they are behaving stupidly.<br /><br /><br />I posted on <a href="https://adiffer.blogspot.com/2020/09/where-is-bubble.html" rel="nofollow">my own blog</a> a trend line for about half my retirement money over the last couple years after removing $ amounts so you can see what I'm trying to say. I occasionally buy into potential asset bubbles and then get out again. Sometimes I win, sometimes I loose, but the trend is mostly the general curve of the market. I'm happy enough with it as it is.<br /><br />Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-13397099348703298182020-09-04T20:53:40.018-07:002020-09-04T20:53:40.018-07:00Douglas Rushkoff says The Privileged Have Entered ...Douglas Rushkoff says <a href="https://onezero.medium.com/the-privileged-have-entered-their-escape-pods-4706b4893af7" rel="nofollow">The Privileged Have Entered Their Escape Pods</a><br /><br /><i>I can’t help but see the dismantling of the Post Office as a last-ditch attempt to keep the majority from piercing the bubbles of digital privilege through something as simple as voting. Climb to safety and then pull the ladder up after ourselves. No more voting, no more subsidized delivery of alternative journalism (that was the original constitutional purpose for a fully funded post office). So much the better for the algorithms streaming us the picture of the world we want to see, uncorrupted by imagery of what’s really happening out there. (And if it does come through, just swipe left, and the algorithms will know never to interrupt your dream state with such real news again.)</i>TCBhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08153506222271955110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-15331267847248755222020-09-04T20:25:54.036-07:002020-09-04T20:25:54.036-07:00(continued)
2. What exactly are rent seekers seek...(continued)<br /><br />2. What exactly are rent seekers seeking? Ask Piketty. He nails it. Low volatility income returns that beat inflation+GDP growth. Pretty simple. Where are those assets? They are NOT in the equity markets. The $2.1T market cap for AAPL seems gigantic, but that is just grains of sand on the beach compared to what goes on in the bond market. How does the US fund its deficits? By selling 'bonds' on the bond market. How does your electric power utility fund a new generation facility? Bonds. How do mortgage companies keep securing mortgages year after year? They sell the revenues from older ones as bonds… or sell the mortgages to people who do. <br /><br />Bonds are where the largest piles of money are found.<br /><br />2a) Where did the market meltdown a decade ago start? In the derivative assets people constructed as bonds.<br />2b) Where is money raised by lenders for borrowers? Go home if your first thought was savings accounts.<br /><br />3. Bonds promise a relatively small (generally) fixed return. Give me $X now and I'll give you $X+ in three years. There are many kinds of bonds that alter many expectations, but the general idea is fixed-return and fixed-time frame. While the bond lives, though, it can be traded at a different price than the original buyer paid. In general, though, they return a small amount + principle in the future in return for a large principle now. If you want to make a lot of money, you have to risk a lot of money. Way more money than you'll earn usually. WAY more. [If you own a house you already know how this works. Just imagine being on the other side of the mortgage.]<br /><br />Now… think about what a disaster the last meltdown was and the fact that it started in the bond market where the rentiers actually show up. They got crushed when their principle evaporated in illiquid assets. They HATE that, but they deserved it. Creditors is what they actually are and they lent their money stupidly. They got eaten alive by the sharks running the financial companies who had nothing to lose of their own.<br /><br />Bubbles certainly do happen in the equity markets. They are really painful when they pop. However, most rentiers get by largely untouched. Bond markets will gyrate when equity markets do, but not as much. They simply have a different beta. The bond market isn't for the casino players. It is for the casino owners.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-83839655662261202772020-09-04T20:25:30.841-07:002020-09-04T20:25:30.841-07:00This topic comes around now and then and I usually...This topic comes around now and then and I usually prefer to leave it alone. Not the money velocity thing. I largely agree that low money velocity is a problem. I worry a bit that everything might not be counted correctly since the nature of the economy has changed over the decades. In principle, though, higher money velocity (up to a point) is healthy. Up to a point. If it's too high, I worry people aren't saving for their future needs when they can't generate the income they could at their prime. Still... very low is bad.<br /><br />Because of the equity market gyration in the last couple days and the frenzy of the last few weeks, though, I think I should say something. <br /><br />1. Any person managing where their IRA or 401(K) money goes that pays attention to individual stocks knows the FANNG stocks are far from being secure places to stash your cash. They do NOT qualify, therefore, for rentier-class purchase. For example, AAPL right now has a market cap of $2.1T, easily trades 100M shares daily, has quarterly revenues that usually clear the $50B hurdle, but has a 5-year Beta of 1.3. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is about as volatile as the market is, so AAPL is noticeably more volatile. To make matters worse, its annual dividend is 0.68%. That is NOT what rentier-class investor buy. Far from it. They want principle preserving assets that deliver a decent return with near zero risk of that return changing.<br /><br />All the star equities on the NASDAQ are like this to some degree. High beta means higher chance of principle growth… and principle loss. These are the casino bets people make if they don't understand anything about the underlying company. For example, consider SKWS with a tiny market cap of $23.2B, beta of 1.2, dividend yield recently increased to 1.43%, quarterly revenues that cleared $1B a couple times in the last five years, but have been trending down the last few years, and a price curve that matches many other tech companies. Worth the risk? Kinda depends on what they do, right? (Not so if you are a casino player.) Turns out they depend heavily on AAPL for revenue. If you own an iPhone, you probably have something they made. If you are a foolish rentier, you'll put your money here for the dividend, but your children might not inherit much of anything if you do. Still… the forard P/E is around 20. Not bad by comparison.Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.com