tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post5275649307544466139..comments2024-03-28T04:58:13.341-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: Human Morality: from Mexico's Solution to GHW Bush to AI(!) to Climate Change to SETIDavid Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger154125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-24226761794163524142018-12-13T04:39:37.550-08:002018-12-13T04:39:37.550-08:00\\Try, just try, to squint and imagine today’s mid...\\Try, just try, to squint and imagine today’s middle east with a Marsh Arab state around Basra filled with educated, oil-rich Shiites who adored us…<br /><br />Yeap, glory island in a vast ocean of Islamic State uniting under its reign all other muslims<br />and backed up with USSR/RF or even China weapon "from local mil. store"(as Putin do says about his troops in Ukraine) <br /><br />History is not that shiny beauty which will praise you for all and any good deeds.<br /><br />But more like bitchy gnarled old hag which will bite back on your good words... while be strangely pleased by outraged fuck-offs.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-40521686505986533082018-12-13T01:41:58.927-08:002018-12-13T01:41:58.927-08:00Did you saw "Three Worlds Collide" by El...Did you saw "Three Worlds Collide" by Eliezer S. Yudkowsky.<br /><br />Its exactly on the main point of this post IMHO.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-18097035965878263912018-12-06T11:19:24.609-08:002018-12-06T11:19:24.609-08:00Alfred Differ,
Thanks for that page. I should hav...Alfred Differ,<br /><br />Thanks for that page. I should have known that it had a name and has been extensively studied. I check myself a lot too to avoid falling into the trap but sometimes my ego takes over.<br />Deuxglassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-19894196612407979742018-12-06T10:48:59.563-08:002018-12-06T10:48:59.563-08:00onward
onwardonward<br /><br />onwardDavid Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-18326691630026691412018-12-06T10:38:40.127-08:002018-12-06T10:38:40.127-08:00Duexglass | That effect has a name nowadays. Dunni...Duexglass | That effect has a name nowadays. Dunning-Kruger Effect. <br /><br />Print out the Wikipedia page, leave it on an open table at work, and the people to whom it most applies won't think it does.<br />Everyone else will and they will know to whom it applies. 8)<br /><br />That page has a wonderful description.<br />I use it as a touchstone to deflate my ego now and then. Alfred Differhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01170159981105973192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-84953413217689861522018-12-06T10:24:12.761-08:002018-12-06T10:24:12.761-08:00Catfish: "Some have tried to imagine what the...Catfish: "Some have tried to imagine what the British Empire with an integrated America would have been like. The mind reels."<br /><br /> Actor Richard Dreyfuss wrote a novel with Harry Turtledove called THE TWO GEORGES about a united British empire. <br /><br />I agree with Catfish. While GeorgeIII was in the era when Parliament had begun to dominate, he still had tremendous pull, compared to today.<br /><br />Note that much strength in the revolution came from Scots-Irish in the west who had fled indenture in the plantations. Yes they wanted Kentucky! And later became the driving force behind Jacksonianism. They were the Southerners who fought for the Revolution e.g. at King’s Mountain. The plantation lords tended tory… that was phase one of the ongoing Civil War.<br /><br />The idea that any sane or decent residual Republican can see the tsunami of cheating, from the gerrymandering that kep the GOP in control of many legislatures to the bald power grabs we now see, and not purely vomit with disgust, persuades me that I was wrong. There may be no salvageable wing of moderates, Just Confederate traitors, down the line.<br /><br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-26293294048930295012018-12-06T10:08:39.470-08:002018-12-06T10:08:39.470-08:00Tim Wolter,
I have always found it strange when p...Tim Wolter,<br /><br />I have always found it strange when people who are excellent at one thing consequently believe that they are excellent at other things outside their expertise as well. Some can do it but most cannot and the only way to know it to try them out. Deuxglassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-13703526201684296402018-12-06T09:14:28.811-08:002018-12-06T09:14:28.811-08:00Mike Will,
Laplace still did science and was rais...Mike Will,<br /><br />Laplace still did science and was raised to the French senate. He and Napoleon remained good friends so I don't think that Laplace's mind was wasted. What would have wasted him would have been remaining in a job that he wasn't suited for. Napoleon was a shrewd judge of men. He saw that he had made a grave mistake he did Laplace a favor by firing him. <br /><br />Larry Hart,<br /><br />Right now I am studying another fascinating Frenchman from the same era, Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord. He and Alexander Hamilton were very close friends. Talleyrand, who had met, negotiated with, and intellectually matched and often defeated the leaders of Europe said that Hamilton was the smartest man he had ever met.<br /><br />Dr. Brin,<br /><br />Funneling money through elite-controlled ways into their own pockets is the time-honored means to wealth accumulation as opposed to wealth creation. The two are different. Wealth creation requires brains and ability. Wealth accumulation only requires controlling the political process. In other words "contacts" whether it is in the US, Europe or China trump all other factors.<br />Deuxglassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-85403075639949895302018-12-06T08:42:42.427-08:002018-12-06T08:42:42.427-08:00Napoleon had one of the greatest minds in history ...Napoleon had one of the greatest minds in history in his grasp and ignored him.<br /><br />There is some debate as to Laplace's last words (he was thought to have been gasping for breath when he utter them). My favourite version is:<br /><br />"L'homme ne poursuit que des chimères."<br />("Man follows only phantoms.")Mike Willhttp://www.scidata.canoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-64331547436018123282018-12-06T08:35:40.368-08:002018-12-06T08:35:40.368-08:00Regards Laplace.
It is probably a similar phenome...Regards Laplace.<br /><br />It is probably a similar phenomena that makes writers infrequent political leaders and rarely distinguished ones.<br /><br />Actors seem to do a little better? Other professions that would seem to be better fits for political leadership?<br /><br />T. WolterTacitushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17007086196578740689noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-42076877000284940142018-12-06T08:32:55.520-08:002018-12-06T08:32:55.520-08:00Mike Will,
After Napoleon came to power he put la...Mike Will,<br /><br />After Napoleon came to power he put laplace, who was a solid friend of his, as Interior Minister but Laplace had to be fired after only six weeks. Napoleon in his memoires gave the reason:<br /><br />Géomètre de premier rang, Laplace ne tarda pas à se montrer administrateur plus que médiocre; dès son premier travail nous reconnûmes que nous nous étions trompé. Laplace ne saisissait aucune question sous son véritable point de vue: il cherchait des subtilités partout, n'avait que des idées problématiques, et portait enfin l'esprit des 'infiniment petits' jusque dans l'administration. <br /><br />(Geometrician of the first rank, Laplace was not long in showing himself a worse than average administrator; from his first actions in office we recognized our mistake. Laplace did not consider any question from the right angle: he sought subtleties everywhere, conceived only problems, and finally carried the spirit of "infinitesimals" into the administration.) <br /><br />Napoleon made a very interesting observation in that the factors that had made Laplace a great mathematician were precisely the same factors that made him a lousy administrator.Deuxglassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-56695853977042255252018-12-06T07:02:45.264-08:002018-12-06T07:02:45.264-08:00The rotten boroughs were a whole 'nother level...The rotten boroughs were a whole 'nother level of electoral hijinks. Some of them were communities that had literally fallen off the face of the earth....they were hot stuff in the Middle Ages but when erosion of the cliffs they were built on plunked them into the North Sea they kept their seats in Parliament!<br /><br />We operate on a much shorter time line but I'm pretty sure that when Detroit fell into the economic drink and the population cratered there was an adjustment in Congressional seats.<br /><br />I'm only in a position to do something about WI political matters but there are also other dodgy things going on out in the world.<br /><br />T.WolterTacitushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17007086196578740689noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-67807510236104577282018-12-06T05:35:11.776-08:002018-12-06T05:35:11.776-08:00Catfish N. Cod:
Representation in Parliament nigh...Catfish N. Cod:<br /><i><br />Representation in Parliament night have defused the crisis, but even opening the debate would have threatened “rotten boroughs” (the gerrymandering of the time) and was out of the question. Appeal to the King was the last option; when it failed, revolt was guaranteed. <br /></i><br /><br />Sounds like Wisconsin today.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-59247165918146819272018-12-06T04:50:09.088-08:002018-12-06T04:50:09.088-08:00Catfish: "Some have tried to imagine what the...Catfish: <i>"Some have tried to imagine what the British Empire with an integrated America would have been like. The mind reels."</i><br /><br />Old Canadian joke:<br />We could have had British culture, French cuisine, and American know-how.<br />Instead, we got British cuisine, French know-how, and American culture.<br /><br />And we never took the 1789 off ramp from the French monarchy either. The British won the battle of Quebec 30 years earlier, which led to the expulsion of the Acadians. Napoleon eventually sold them to Jefferson, and you got the 'Cajuns' along with a small bite of Alberta and Saskatchewan. La Nouvelle France still exists, at least culturally and intellectually.<br /><br />The connections run even deeper. I come from Scottish stock, which flirted with the French over the centuries instead of warring with them. We liked the Americans too (especially after 1776). Benjamin Franklin is considered as one of the bright lights of the Scottish Enlightenment !<br /><br />Meanwhile, the 'national razor' took Lavoisier, Ampere's father, and others of that ilk. Laplace cleverly survived long enough to gain Napoleon's favour. The legend of his 'superintelligence' AI machine is fun reading, if you can find it (early Bayesian learning). I'm sure that Asimov would have pursued that course if he had lived. I wrote a short article in 2011 on the subject because I scoffed at the facile 'big-data' form of psychohistory that was popular at the time.<br /><br />In a way, because of the exponential growth of Humanity in post-Enlightenment times, almost everything that -can- happen -does- happen, in a sense.<br />Mike Willhttp://www.scidata.canoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-12289574893380140462018-12-06T03:49:59.347-08:002018-12-06T03:49:59.347-08:00Not in 1775, he wasn’t. Aside from a brief attack ...Not in 1775, he wasn’t. Aside from a brief attack in 1765, “The Madness of King George” didn’t strike fully until the Revolution was over. He still had the ability to appoint PMs by other than strict choice of the Commons (the first Pitt cabinet was a minority one, for example). He had no day-to-day powers, but could weigh in on general direction.... and the tax crisis was plenty long enough for him to have influenced opinion. He put his trust in his Cabinet, which was a good move constitutionally — but not for achieving the political solution he desired.Catfish N. Codnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-90137581324809971392018-12-06T02:07:10.859-08:002018-12-06T02:07:10.859-08:00Not the "final" appeal
At that point Ge...Not the "final" appeal<br /><br />At that point George had control of the colour of his rooms and partial control of his menu<br /><br />The current Monarch has more power - George was too close to the "shortening" to have any actual powerduncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-40842014515838826532018-12-06T02:00:52.944-08:002018-12-06T02:00:52.944-08:00But he was still the final appeal. He could have r...But he was still the final appeal. He could have risked it for the sake of the long-term biggest asset his Empire had. He didn’t. We left the Empire. <br /><br />Some have tried to imagine what the British Empire with an integrated America would have been like. The mind reels. Catfish N. Codnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-44385057800223321522018-12-06T01:51:51.983-08:002018-12-06T01:51:51.983-08:00Hi Catfish
The King was all in favor - but he had ...Hi Catfish<br />The King was all in favor - but he had zero power<br />The "PM" - Lord North was the guy who said NOduncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-62919110550902194652018-12-05T23:42:38.150-08:002018-12-05T23:42:38.150-08:00@David, @Duncan: You’re both right. Drawing the Pr...@David, @Duncan: You’re both right. Drawing the Proclamation Boundary was one of the walls of the box the colonies were being put in - a box that would starve and muzzle the opportunity society that had been developing (on partly conquered land, but honestly, dealing fairly for land was progressive for this time). <br /><br />I wrote a long Twitter thread that goes into more detail, Essentially, the colonial societies had economic and social power structures that relied on opportunity. Simultaneously closing the frontier and imposing trade restrictions blocked off opportunity - no new farms to the West, no wealth in trade from the Atlantic. It also gave all free persons a common grievance: the poor farmer and rich merchant alike were being denied opportunity by the same central government; the Southerner and Northerner cared about different trade but the same restriction. <br /><br />Representation in Parliament night have defused the crisis, but even opening the debate would have threatened “rotten boroughs” (the gerrymandering of the time) and was out of the question. Appeal to the King was the last option; when it failed, revolt was guaranteed. <br /><br />All of this was fundamentally because the English aristocracy generally assumed European rules still applied.... and they didn’t.Catfish N. Codnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-2971542694773180482018-12-05T17:08:27.103-08:002018-12-05T17:08:27.103-08:00The "Real Grievance" back then was
Parl...The "Real Grievance" back then was <br />Parliament INSISTING! that the colonies actually keep the treaties made with the Indians<br />Combined with the <br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somerset_v_Stewart - <br />Decision on slavery that showed that slavery was on the way out <br /><br />Follow the money! <br />Who ended up the richest US President ever (I ignore Trump - he is not nearly as rich as he says) <br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States_by_net_worth<br />Wealth from the Indian lands that somehow fell into his pocket<br />duncan cairncrosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14153725128216947145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-63511947403208647722018-12-05T16:48:53.764-08:002018-12-05T16:48:53.764-08:00Deuglass the tax on tea was a spark. The real grie...Deuglass the tax on tea was a spark. The real grievance was piles of laws favoring aristocracy and monopolies that forced all commerce to go through the wharves of king cronies. As I understand it, it's no so much the gas tax that upsets people as the fact that taxes on the rich were cut.<br /><br />I think PZ Myers got the word "tumbrel" from me... but also a fine education ;-)David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-37784798072095954952018-12-05T16:10:49.864-08:002018-12-05T16:10:49.864-08:00@Deuxglass,
Ok, maybe I had the wrong musical. H...@Deuxglass,<br /><br />Ok, maybe I had the wrong musical. How about...?<br /><br /><i><br />Do you hear the people sing--singing the songs of angry men?<br />It is the music of a people who will not be slaves again.<br />When the beating of your heart echoes the beating of the drums,<br />There is a life about to start when tomorrow comes!<br />...<br />Will you give all you can give so that our banner may advance?<br />Some will fall and some will live. Will you stand up and take your chance?<br />The blood of the martyrs will water the meadows of France!<br />...<br /></i><br />Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-5478908685608705722018-12-05T14:47:29.944-08:002018-12-05T14:47:29.944-08:00Larry Hart,
A tax on tea: just a small matter rea...Larry Hart,<br /><br />A tax on tea: just a small matter really they thought and entirely justified. Just like dropping a ice crystal into supercooled water the opinion of so many people changed onto a new track and solidified. I am not a French citizen so I am a spectator but I can feel the energy pulsing. It's not like what we feel before an election. That is often a false excitement and is really more of a show than anything else. This however is real and powerful. You can see it on their faces and hear it in their voices. They are no longer resigned. They have hope. They believe in themselves. One was holding a sign. It said "We will not go quietly into the Night". I think that says everything.Deuxglassnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-86743593634048357252018-12-05T14:23:44.102-08:002018-12-05T14:23:44.102-08:00@Deuxglass,
From "Hamilton"...
The wo...@Deuxglass,<br /><br />From "Hamilton"...<br /><br /><i><br />The world turned upside down.<br />The world turned upside down.<br />The world turned upside down.<br />The world turned upside down.<br /><br />"Freedom for America! Freedom for France!"<br />...<br /></i><br /><br />One can only hope.Larry Harthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01058877428309776731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-11513048662883754392018-12-05T13:49:45.159-08:002018-12-05T13:49:45.159-08:00For those who are interested the Yellow Jacket mov...For those who are interested the Yellow Jacket movement is gaining strength from other sectors of the population here in France. Students, truckers and transportation workers have joined. An important factor is that people higher up the wealth chain, i.e. doctors and other professional people are now on board. We have the curious situation now where in a group of "yellow jackets" you would find people who voted on completely different sides, from the far left through the Moderates and to the far Right standing together in their defiance of the government's Devos-inspired plans and policies. There has been violence and many deplore it, some condemn it but just about all say they understand it.<br /><br />There have been riots before in France but they have always occurred in outlying areas outside the cities in places no one cared about. Last Saturday was different. The rioting was in the richest part of Paris where the cream of the cream live. That has never happened before. The police said that they were submerged by waves of protesters and could only protect themselves. Strangely enough, after that happened, the government decided to drop the new gas tax..temporally. Are the two connected or is it just a coincidence? It could be that Macron received some angry telephone calls from his masters. In any case it's too little too late. What people want is to claw back the profits that stemmed from the productivity gains that went to the Top 1% and not to the middle and lower classes. The movement is radicalizing rapidly. The shear rage is impressive. <br /><br />We are in a new world now. Deuxglassnoreply@blogger.com