tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post5105002076347799283..comments2024-03-28T13:08:04.959-07:00Comments on CONTRARY BRIN: The Comet of the Century? David Brinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comBlogger49125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-88420671434633429912013-09-16T19:02:26.505-07:002013-09-16T19:02:26.505-07:00"sourpuss, grouchy, complaining-gloomy ingrat..."sourpuss, grouchy, complaining-gloomy ingrates who think they invented dystopias and apocalypses"<br /><br />I gather you do not know that he wrote a book called Apocalypse Not, detailing the history of apocalyptic predictions and emphasizing the one common element, that each of them has been wrong?<br /><br />This is not the only portion of your description of Greer that is incorrect, merely the one with the shortest refutation, but I suspect that you and he would find a great deal of common ground where predictors of apocalypse are concerned.<br />I suspect you would also find his writings explaining the physics of the flow of energy to be enlightening, not in the sense that you'll learn any new physics, but that you'll find new applications of physics you already know in the context of energy issues.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-10210865792467391172013-09-16T11:07:30.692-07:002013-09-16T11:07:30.692-07:00'Occam's comic' said :
Unfortunately,...<br />'Occam's comic' said : <br />Unfortunately, I do think that a fossil fuel civilization, with its infrastructure built to use cheep fossil fuels, with its economic system, financial system, military system and political system all aligned with the interests of fossil fuel producers would have great difficulties dealing with a threat like Global Climate Change.<br /><br><br />I don't think that global climate change is the problem. Rather the group-think inevitable in such a structured soci-econo-political system is the danger, exactly what we are living through at the moment.<br /><br><br />Too much centralization, too little understanding of our limits to control large-scale systems. We have no theory of control systems to allow controlling complex systems, but have built such into the core of the hugely complex systems within which we live. <br /><br><br />Disaster is guaranteed, reboots of nation-states are in the offing, don't assume the USofA will escape.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-86650511236833946772013-09-15T13:59:26.347-07:002013-09-15T13:59:26.347-07:00David,
I will first own that my response to your ...David,<br /><br />I will first own that my response to your response to the archdruid post is mostly intuitive.<br /><br />Your response to me feels very emotional and to betray an underlying desperation to refute what he says by any means necessary, like irrationally berating him as a "grouch.<br /><br />I also think you are way off to say that he is not wanting to "lift a finger" to solve problems. Other posts of his are full of actions he thinks we need to take to cope with our de-industrial future, like much more localized economies and people learning how to grow food for themselves.<br /><br />Submitted Respectfully,<br />David BeckemeierDavidnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-14111008463311546582013-09-13T12:03:33.843-07:002013-09-13T12:03:33.843-07:00This is very on topic by Dr. George Mobus on his b...This is very on topic by Dr. George Mobus on his blog "Question Everything" http://questioneverything.typepad.com/question_everything/<br /><br />"Peak Neoclassical Economics? It's Really Past Time for This"<br /><br />[excerpt]<br />"The fundamental problem is that we are working down our stock of fossil energy at an incredible rate. Fossil fuels account for over 80% of the energy driving our economy. We have probably reached or might have even passed the peak of extraction, meaning that over the next several decades we will have less and less fossil fuels to power society. But it is even worse than that. The energy cost of extracting those fuels is climbing exponentially. The extraction of tar sands, tight oil and gas, and deeper coal veins takes far more energy than was the case historically. That means there is less net energy for doing economic work in each time period going forward.<br /><br />And, in spite of the neoclassical belief in substitution effects resulting from high prices, we really don't have substitute sources of high power energy needed to run our current developed world economies, let alone bring the developing economies up to some &ldauo;reasonable” standard of living. At best we might be able to position ourselves to live off of real-time solar inputs if we invest heavily in wind, solar, and hydro power generation now before the fossil fuels become useless. But we would have to substantially diminish our consumption of energy on the lifestyle side — much more so than most people will be willing to do voluntarily.<br /><br />So while those few of us who are capable can continue to seek understanding of our situation, at least for scientific sake, I just don't see that understanding having any impact on how the world is run by the idiots in charge. They do not want to know."kleymohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05073430643005816944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-86032845063965938462013-09-13T08:54:57.869-07:002013-09-13T08:54:57.869-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.dkallemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11435598655403273844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-30133336329953758042013-09-13T08:47:58.407-07:002013-09-13T08:47:58.407-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.dkallemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11435598655403273844noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-70672748598554251772013-09-13T07:42:57.274-07:002013-09-13T07:42:57.274-07:00the Solarex Corporation had a plant in Frederick, ...<i>the Solarex Corporation had a plant in Frederick, MD, which was powered by a vast bank of solar cells</i><br /><br />The really energy-intensive parts of solar cell manufacture happens when silicon is converted first from sand into silicon, then into low-defect silicon crystals. They then get diced into wafers and sold to electronics manufacturers, including solar cell manufacturers. The plants that do this have huge energy costs; until you can do this with solar energy I'm not too impressed.Jaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-81563892076759015222013-09-13T07:31:47.324-07:002013-09-13T07:31:47.324-07:00I love David Brin's science ficition, and have...I love David Brin's science ficition, and have read most of it. When I want to read about the future, though, I read John Micheal Greer.<br /><br />It is not as simple as Brin (and Freidman of STRATFOR) are suggesting - ramp up the cells in orbit and go to town.<br /><br />I suggest to get an basic idea of the complexity of things, you read this article (and the commentary!) on what is going on in Germany.<br /><br />http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10227#more<br /><br />EVERYONE including Brin does agree that we will have a die off, that we are going through a bottleneck, and that this century is not going to be much fun for most of us and our offspring.<br /><br />On technology - according to Tainter, we no longer have the resources to improve technology enough to matter. http://www.notechmagazine.com/2009/12/the-declining-marginal-return-of-research-and-development.html <br /><br />Resiliance and plain old survival involve triage and simplification. What else is there with a planet containing 7+ billion and resource depletion? Again, a question of numbers such as EROI and financing.<br />kleymohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05073430643005816944noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-29763881099316748802013-09-12T17:04:51.161-07:002013-09-12T17:04:51.161-07:00A word to the gentleman who said
"until a sol...A word to the gentleman who said<br />"until a solar plant that produces solar power IS solar powered, it simply will not be done."<br />It HAS been done. For over twenty years, the Solarex Corporation had a plant in Frederick, MD, which was powered by a vast bank of solar cells and produced solar cells and solar panels. Regrettably, the plant was closed after BP bought Solarex, renamed it BP Solar, and moved the manufacturing group to China.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-43983373564355400672013-09-12T10:20:51.481-07:002013-09-12T10:20:51.481-07:00Hypnos, well said.
The Archdruid Report, in its p...Hypnos, well said.<br /><br />The Archdruid Report, in its posts and comments, actively advocates for pursuing multiple, and competing, strategies. Consensus is discouraged. <br /><br />That means that people are encouraged to work on large solar installations, while others are encouraged to work on other things in case large solar does not transpire.<br /><br />Because, well, relying on the appearance of cheap, durable solar that can be fabricated in a garage would be stupid.<br /><br />I don't agree with everything Greer says, and I have been criticized in the comments section, but that is the only blog of which I do not miss a single post. When I found it, I went back to the very beginning and read forward...Rubenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08391623908501295326noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-10980992660595584902013-09-12T10:02:09.130-07:002013-09-12T10:02:09.130-07:00While some sniff "it ain't gonna happen&q...While some sniff "it ain't gonna happen", some of us are making it happen.<br /><br />A challenge? certainly.<br />But what is life for but solving challenges/rewinnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14008105385364113371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-17540075430896370992013-09-12T09:31:46.331-07:002013-09-12T09:31:46.331-07:00What David does not realize is that until a solar ...What David does not realize is that until a solar plant that produces solar power IS solar powered, it simply will not be done. Or a wind generator plant that is solely powered by wind power is built, again not possible. If the planet had 500 million or so people, ya sure alternative energy is doable. But when 7 billion narcissists want want to flip a light switch and leave everything plugged in...it aint gonna happen folksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16979098427928850953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-89952626001207355192013-09-12T08:48:14.142-07:002013-09-12T08:48:14.142-07:00Brin said "It may not be enough to preserve o...Brin said "<i>It may not be enough to preserve our current wastrel 8 billions, but it would make a billion able to live in great comfort and give them time/energy to do all the re-evaluation they need.</i><br /><br />If the "archdruid" is claiming that humanity will see a catastrophe followed by inevitable resurgence, and you're predicting that 87% of the world's population will die off but people will eventually move forward again, then I don't really see much disagreement between you.<br /><br />And seriously, don't you think that the deaths of almost everyone might put a dent in the collective optimism for a while?<br /><br />I know about solar energy, and I hope it continues to improve. I also know exponential growth tends to level off as technologies mature, and that the infrastructure costs of a switch to solar energy are not small. It seems reasonable to make some preparation for the possibility that solar energy will remain a very marginal part of our total energy budget.Jaynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-70834346417603750172013-09-12T04:30:01.657-07:002013-09-12T04:30:01.657-07:00My thoughts upon Greer:
"But while [James] ...My thoughts upon Greer: <br /><br />"But while [James] Kunstler may be a 'romantic' Doomer, Greer has turned out to be an Evil one.<br /><br />For quite a while I though of Greer as being the more reasonable of the two. Kunstler's words are scathing and razor edged. His contempt springs off of the page like a rabid dog. Greer, on the other hand, though obviously sharing Kunstler's feelings and opinions, speaks in far more measured tones, almost Olympian in their detachment.<br /><br />But then he crossed a line. I do not think anyone else noticed, but it struck me in the face like a blow.<br /><br />In his June 9th, 2010 post, Waiting for the Millennium/Part One: Peak Oil Goes Mainstream, he speaks with great insight and eloquence about 'cultural myths' – read 'envelopes of emotional safety' – and how a number of them are specific to Modern Technological Civilization. But I had noticed a trend to disparage what he called 'revitalization movements' and to do so with a hint of desperation.<br /><br />'Revitalization movement' is the label he applies to any and all types of solutions that could possible prevent the socio-economic collapse that both he and Kunstler firmly insist is coming, no matter what. But then he crossed that line.<br /><br />Now, for those who are not metaphysically inclined, what he did may seem silly, but that is not the point. Greer is an Archdruid after all and a serious believer in the metaphysical, so what he advocated was, in his model of the world, quite real.<br /><br />I quote him here:<br /><br />“For the moment, though, I want to pass on the counterspell against incantatory thinking that I mentioned at the conclusion of last week’s post. Like the magic spells in fairy tales, it comes with a taboo that limits what you can do with it. The taboo is this: you can use it to guard yourself from incantations, if you think about it and understand it, and you can pass it on to someone else who’s ready to receive and understand it. If you give it to someone who’s not willing to accept it, though, it will cause exactly the flight into incantation and fantasy it’s meant to prevent. Here it is:<br /><br />There is no brighter future ahead.<br /><br />Keep it secret; keep it safe.”<br /><br />That is a fucking Evil Meme at the very least and pure Black Majick at the very worst. In his need to bring about his Desired Outcome, he has Invoked Darkness and Disaster and all the Death and Pain that would surely follow...<br /><br />...The semi-medieval societies these [men] and their kind seek to establish is as much an evolutionary dead end as any Father/God theocracy. And would be just as brutal and mean-spirited."<br /><br />The OP: http://nebris.livejournal.com/5526647.htmlNebrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05974591864059776528noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-82391722470747906182013-09-12T04:09:46.866-07:002013-09-12T04:09:46.866-07:00I find there is quite a lot of simplification of A...I find there is quite a lot of simplification of Archdruidical thought here. That is unsurprising as his essays are meant to provoke just this sort of reaction from people who hold what he calls the civil religion of Progress, much like evangelical Christians react to a slighting of Jesus. <br /><br />Nonetheless, as a committed atheist and empiricist myself, I find the Archdruid one of the most acute and educated social commentators that I have ever read. His knowledge of history and philosophy is unparalleled, and his insights on the psychology of religion are invaluable – not to mention his treatment of, I kid you not, magic, which as a rationalist I found perfectly acceptable and incredibly illuminating. <br /><br />He is also quite a firm opposer of simple binary thinking – there’s a good essay on his blog about that, if you care to look for it – so ascribing him simply to the category of doomers is quite mistaken when he spends an equal amount of time lambasting those who have rejected the Myth of Progress to embrace its mirror opposite, the Myth of Apocalypse. <br /><br />I cannot aim to do his thought justice – having read his blog for over two years and with the advantage of a classical education I would still find it hard to properly summarize his ideas in a few lines, as they are so rich in innovative perspectives.<br /><br />However I think it worth to explain one of the basic tenets that drives his outlook on the future. Quite simply he does not consider the current civilization to be qualitatively different from those that preceded it (that would be the real point of contention with Brin’s thinking). As such, it will likely follow the same path that all other civilizations before it followed: that of rise, apogee, and decline. A slow, punctuated decline quite unlike that preached by most believers in the Myth of Apocalypse, but a decline nonetheless. Accusing him of Hegelian teleologism is then quite a drastic misinterpretation of its entire system of thinking.<br /><br />He does not though invoke simply sitting back and watching the decline happen. In fact, that is what he accuses most believers in progress of doing: recognising the challenges, and shirking away from them by saying “they’ll think of something”, “they” here being scientists in lab coats. If that isn’t a religious view interpreting scientists as priests building higher and bigger Pyramids to Quetzalcoatl as the jungle around them runs out of water, I don’t know what it is. <br /><br />Instead, he asks each individual to take action, first personally, and then at a community level. To make changes to their own lives, not only in the direction of sustainability and lowering resource consumption, but also towards learning crafts and skills that would allow the conservation of some of the contemporary world’s scientific discoveries.<br /><br />As much as the medieval monks alleviated the Dark Ages by preserving some of the Classical World’s knowledge in their monasteries for the benefit of future generations, so we should work to preserve as much of the current scientific knowledge as possible to make sure that the next civilization emerging from the ruins of ours will start from a much stronger base than would be otherwise.<br /><br />Much as you might disagree with his vision for the future, I would still advise any self-respecting contrarian to read the Archdruid closely. He has much more to say and teach than you might imagine.<br /><br />As a closing point, if you are interested in his reasoning for dismissing solar power as solution to maintain our current technological society (not any technological society), then you can read this essay and the two that follow: http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.co.uk/2010/02/energy-follows-its-bliss.html<br />Hypnoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01409179274970587232noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-399220065442696002013-09-09T18:08:36.452-07:002013-09-09T18:08:36.452-07:00"Like even if our society collapses, there ar..."Like even if our society collapses, there are kinds of knowledge that ratchet forward unstoppably"…could you elaborate on this prognostication? Knowledge previously lost includes the construction of analog computers, the somewhat more practical art of concrete, and the vastly more important technique of how to cast free-standing bronze sculptures (handy to convert egos to cash for sculpting services rendered—but bear in mind that Ozymandias might prefer stone).<br /><br />Seems to me the type and extent of the collapse would call what might be lost—Quipus, for example, got the short end of the Enlightenment stick—plus a few dice rolls for the specifics.thrighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12057080636193592744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-17182365394016923532013-09-09T08:23:24.530-07:002013-09-09T08:23:24.530-07:00Dr. Brin,
Something that has been bothering me ab...Dr. Brin,<br /><br />Something that has been bothering me about the idea of vat-grown meat, especially since I saw it featured prominently in both Existence and The Rapture of the Nerds: Why is the focus on common mammal protein, like beef, chicken, pork? If the problem with taste is a lack of fat (not surprising) why not focus on vat-growing shellfish such as crab and lobster? From my uniformed perspective it seems it might be simpler, with fewer arbitrary moral hangups (some were outraged that the recent vat-grown hamburger was made using fetal bovine serum, or some such). ocpearsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14729220145626859918noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-26161982132146989642013-09-07T14:33:43.108-07:002013-09-07T14:33:43.108-07:00David,
"that Stapledon offered (that the arch...David,<br /><i>"that Stapledon offered (that the arch-druid churlishly never cites)"</i><br /><br />Not in his work, but as soon as someone mentions it in the comments: <i>"yes, I had Stapleton in mind while writing this! Still, I was mostly thinking of Star Maker, and this is in some ways composed in opposition to the theogenesis theme of that book."</i>Paul451https://www.blogger.com/profile/12119086761190994938noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-76793050950108244882013-09-07T13:07:26.474-07:002013-09-07T13:07:26.474-07:00I see fracking as a game changer. Israel will soon...I see fracking as a game changer. Israel will soon have a supply of natural gas, and many other places that didn't. This will destabilize the rest of the carbon market, making its elimination easier eventually. I hope!<br /><br />It's inevitable the Archdruid seems a bit silly. Too many dragons and not enough space ships. But he seems like a nice fellow. If he has groupies, though, well, save me from them.Jumperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11794110173836133321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-66713958689125559002013-09-07T10:44:14.287-07:002013-09-07T10:44:14.287-07:00Another TED talk by a handsome fellow who has an e...Another TED talk by a handsome fellow who has an enthralling riff on BIG prime numbers. And if you watch this without feeling amazed and proud of your era of privilege, then where's your soul? Watch to 15 minutes and see a Rubik's Cube twiddling robot... and more joys! So, so tasty to hear it all in a Sydney accent!<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4xOFsygwr4#t=25<br /><br />Take THAT cynics.David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-11048823894615087452013-09-07T10:25:55.626-07:002013-09-07T10:25:55.626-07:00Hi David
Although a better, cheaper, more durable ...Hi David<br />Although a better, cheaper, more durable type of solar power could be a critical part in a sustainable society, I don't think it is enough by itself. Without corresponding changes in our economic system, policalt system, financial system, military system and in what we value and how we derive meaning in our lives ( our religious system) salvation does not come from a new gizmo.<br /><br />I think Larry Heart's comment on values is spot on.<br />A debate ( discussion?) between people with different value systems could be an enilightening exercise.<br /><br />Would you ( David Brin) be at all interested in writing your own " next ten billion years" essay?<br /><br />I would love to read it!<br /><br /><br />( and thanks for putting up with me )Occam's comicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-55466266667263266902013-09-07T10:15:48.199-07:002013-09-07T10:15:48.199-07:00Three differences between me and Arch-Druid as a &...Three differences between me and Arch-Druid as a "wizard.<br /><br />1) I am perfectly willing to admit the Enlightenment might fail. Indeed, it has 6000 years of testimony against it, showing that the diamond-shaped society is unstable and needs correction to continue outperforming the stable pyramidal societies that A-D so admires. Hence my battle for the top corrective force - transparency.<br /><br />In contrast, he refuses to posit the possibility that the Enlightenment might succeed, despite wallowing in its pleasures and its tools. Thus I am willing to do failure thought experiments (once famously) while he cannot even ponder what the effects on his scenario would be, if solar panels become a robust cottage craft, accumulating by a terra watt per generation.<br /><br />2) While I cannot prove Schadenfreud, one is reasonable in pondering its likely presence in propeling A-D's scenarios. Seven billion die. Whoopee... I mean so-sad! But inevitable! <br /><br />Oh, not all doomcasters wallow in this sickness e.g. I sense none from Jared Diamond. But in this case...<br /><br />3) Contempt for individual and group brilliance. By assuming no one will figure a way out of his teleologically fore-doomed scenario, he implicitly claims that HE is the pinnacle of human development, viewing humanity's rise and its fall from the peak and the wonder that is the mighty arch-druid.<br /><br />Feh. I am an egotist. But I stay away from that shit.<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-53342193618028484742013-09-07T08:14:14.683-07:002013-09-07T08:14:14.683-07:00Sean:
Like you, Greer is a very erudite, strong-...Sean:<br /><i><br /><br />Like you, Greer is a very erudite, strong-willed word wizard, but where you celebrate the Enlightenment, he despises it. In a lot of ways he’s the Anti-Brin -- you guys could have a pretty interesting debate if the opportunity ever arose, but I doubt it will, because the Archdruid has little time for criticism.<br /></i><br /><br />You've hit upon a fundamental problem when two sides don't simply differ in viewpoints, but in fundamental values.<br /><br />A Romanticist and a pro-Enlightenment person can theoretically have a Socratic debate and argue points with each other, but if one party is opposed to the very notion OF Socratic dialogue, then what can they do?<br /><br />That's the problem with the current incarnation of the Republican Party, btw. How are Democrats supposed to negotiate and compromise with a party who see both of those things as "weakness" if not "evil"?LarryHartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-46350787921581778562013-09-07T02:48:05.664-07:002013-09-07T02:48:05.664-07:00Dr. Brin, you nailed it with the Archdruid. I read...Dr. Brin, you nailed it with the Archdruid. I read him occasionally because he’s a good writer with some interesting perspectives, but as you say, he’s a propagandist. He selectively ignores facts that don’t fit his narrative, and is incredibly stubborn in his asperger’s way when someone challenges him. It’s one thing when an informed technologist makes “doomer” arguments, but when a “druid” who has spent most of his adult life promoting alternatives to industrial civilization does it, his agenda is obvious.<br /><br />Like you, Greer is a very erudite, strong-willed word wizard, but where you celebrate the Enlightenment, he despises it. In a lot of ways he’s the Anti-Brin -- you guys could have a pretty interesting debate if the opportunity ever arose, but I doubt it will, because the Archdruid has little time for criticism.Seannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8587336.post-32596601009743236562013-09-06T22:34:52.425-07:002013-09-06T22:34:52.425-07:00Coincidence, I was re-reading DAY MILLION today.....Coincidence, I was re-reading DAY MILLION today...<br />David Brinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14465315130418506525noreply@blogger.com